101. May microcredit lead to inclusion?
- Author
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Marc Diener, Francine Diener, Nahla Dhib, Djaffar Lessy, Equipe de Probabilité et Statistique, Laboratoire Jean Alexandre Dieudonné (JAD), Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) (UNS), COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) (COMUE UCA)-COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) (COMUE UCA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) (UNS), COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) (COMUE UCA)-COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) (COMUE UCA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, LJAD, and Partenaires INRAE
- Subjects
Financial inclusion ,Numerical Analysis ,Absence of Strategic Default JEL codes: C02 ,Actuarial science ,L26 ,[QFIN]Quantitative Finance [q-fin] ,Micro-credit ,Applied Mathematics ,05 social sciences ,Beneficiary ,Markov Chain with Income ,financial inclusion ,Lead (geology) ,Loan ,0502 economics and business ,Micro credit ,D24 ,G21 ,Business ,050207 economics ,[MATH]Mathematics [math] ,Inclusion (education) ,Finance ,050205 econometrics - Abstract
We consider a Markov-Chain model for a Microfinance Institution (MFI) borrower who can be in one of four states: Applicant (A), Beneficiary (B − or B +) of a small or a large loan, or included (I) in the regular banking system. Given the transition matrix we compute the equilibrium and deduce the influence of probability parameters on what is profitable to the borrower within breaking-even constraints of the MFI. We give a general theorem on the total expected actualized income of a Markov Chain with Income (MCI), that we then apply to our model to determine the constrains emerging from Absence of Strategic Default (ASD) requirements. These do not only bound the probabilities from above but sometimes also from below.
- Published
- 2020