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A tornado-scale vortex in the tropical cyclone (TC) boundary layer (TCBL) has been observed in intense hurricanes and the associated intense turbulence poses a severe threat to the manned research aircraft when it penetrates hurricane eyewalls at a lower altitude. In this study, a numerical experiment in which a TC evolves in a large-scale background over the western North Pacific is conducted using the Advanced Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model by incorporating the large-eddy simulation (LES) technique. The simulated tornado-scale vortex shows features similar to those revealed with limited observational data, including the updraft–downdraft couplet, the sudden jump of wind speeds, the location along the inner edge of the eyewall, and the small horizontal scale. It is suggested that the WRF–LES framework can successfully simulate the tornado-scale vortex with grids at a resolution of 37 m that cover the TC eye and eyewall. The simulated tornado-scale vortex is a cyclonic circulation with a small horizontal scale of ∼1 km in the TCBL. It is accompanied by strong updrafts (more than 15 m s−1) and large vertical components of relative vorticity (larger than 0.2 s−1). The tornado-scale vortex favorably occurs at the inner edge of the enhanced eyewall convection or rainband within the saturated, high-θe layer, mostly below an altitude of 2 km. In nearly all the simulated tornado-scale vortices, the narrow intense updraft is coupled with the relatively broad downdraft, constituting one or two updraft–downdraft couplets, as observed by the research aircraft. The presence of the tornado-scale vortex also leads to significant gradients in the near-surface wind speed and wind gusts.

An assessment was made of whether detectable changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity are identifiable in observations and whether any changes can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change. Overall, historical data suggest detectable TC activity changes in some regions associated with TC track changes, while data quality and quantity issues create greater challenges for analyses based on TC intensity and frequency. A number of specific published conclusions (case studies) about possible detectable anthropogenic influence on TCs were assessed using the conventional approach of preferentially avoiding type I errors (i.e., overstating anthropogenic influence or detection). We conclude there is at least low to medium confidence that the observed poleward migration of the latitude of maximum intensity in the western North Pacific is detectable, or highly unusual compared to expected natural variability. Opinion on the author team was divided on whether any observed TC changes demonstrate discernible anthropogenic influence, or whether any other observed changes represent detectable changes. The issue was then reframed by assessing evidence for detectable anthropogenic influence while seeking to reduce the chance of type II errors (i.e., missing or understating anthropogenic influence or detection). For this purpose, we used a much weaker “balance of evidence” criterion for assessment. This leads to a number of more speculative TC detection and/or attribution statements, which we recognize have substantial potential for being false alarms (i.e., overstating anthropogenic influence or detection) but which may be useful for risk assessment. Several examples of these alternative statements, derived using this approach, are presented in the report.

A few recent numerical studies investigated the influence of a continent, which is much larger in size than islands, on the track of a landfalling tropical cyclone. It has been found that land surface roughness and temperature tend to make a tropical cyclone move toward the continent. In this study, the effect of the elevated terrain on the western part of mainland China on landfall tracks is examined through idealized numerical experiments, in which an initially axisymmetric vortex is embedded into a monsoon trough and takes a landfall track across China’s mainland. It is found that the effect of the elevated terrain on the western part of mainland China can enhance the southerly environmental flows in the low and midtroposphere, leading to an additional landward component of tropical cyclone motion, suggesting that forecasts for tropical cyclone tracks over land should take into consideration the change in thermal condition over the continent. The study suggests that the increased duration of tropical cyclone overland tracks observed in China may be associated with the reduction of the thermal forcing over the Tibetan Plateau.

Previous studies have revealed a significantly negative correlation between prior winter snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau (TPSC) and tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCF) over the western North Pacific (WNP) in the following typhoon season. This study revisited this relationship based on long-term observational data. The results showed that the interannual correlation between TCF over the WNP and TPSC experienced a shift in the early 1990s. This correlation is significant during only 1993–2012 and is considerably weak during 1976–1992. The possible reasons causing the shift were examined further, and the results demonstrated that the central Pacific (CP) El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has played a vital role in intensifying the interannual relationship between TCF over the WNP and TPSC since the early 1990s. During 1993–2012, TPSC was negatively related to CP ENSO. When TPSC was higher than (lower than) normal, CP ENSO was often in its cold (warm) phase. Such a combination remarkably enhances the relationship of TPSC with the zonal land-sea thermal difference and thus with the summer monsoon over the WNP. Additionally, it enhances the modulation of TPSC on the dynamical environments controlling TCF. As a result, the linkage between TPSC and TCF was significantly strengthened in this period. In sharp contrast, due to the weak relationship between TPSC and ENSO followed by the weak modulation of TPSC on the summer monsoon over the WNP and the dynamical environment during 1976–1992, the linkage between TPSC and TCF was weak during this time period. The results from additional dynamical diagnostic analyses further showed that during 1993–2012 CP ENSO modulated the barotropic energy conversion of zonal winds over the WNP, contributing to the intensified relationship between TPSC and TCF. These results will improve seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the WNP.

A monsoon gyre is a low-frequency cyclonic circulation over the western North Pacific, which plays important roles in tropical cyclone formation and motion. This study shows that the interaction between a monsoon gyre and a tropical cyclone can lead to a sudden weakening of the tropical cyclone through an observational analysis of Typhoon Chan-Hom (2015). Typhoon Chan-Hom (2015) initially moved westward along ~10°N and sharply turned northeastward in the Philippine Sea at 0000 UTC 3 July. Its intensity decreased by 10.3 m s-1 within 12 hours during the sudden northward turn. Such a rapid weakening event was failed to predict in all of the operational forecasts. It is found that Chan-Hom was coalescing with a large-scale monsoon gyre on the intra-seasonal (15-30-day) time scale while it experienced the sudden track change and rapid intensity weakening. The weak and loosely organized convection on the eastern side of the monsoon gyre at 1200 UTC 2 July rapidly enhanced into the well-organized convection within 6 hours. The strong convection maintaining from 1800 UTC 2 July to 0600 UTC 3 July enhanced inflows outside the radius of 500 km from the tropical cyclone center, which prevented the inward transportation of mass and moisture into Chan-Hom, leading to the collapsing of the eastern part of the eyewall. As a result, Chan-Hom underwent the rapid weakening even under a large-scale environment favorable for intensification. The study suggests that the rapid weakening of a tropical cyclone can result from its interaction with a monsoon gyre.

The east–west migration of the tropical upper-tropospheric trough (TUTT) on the interannual time scale and its influence on tropical cyclone (TC) formation over the western North Pacific (WNP) is investigated in this study. Climatologically, the TUTT can be identified from 100 to 400 hPa with a relative vorticity maximum between 150 and 200 hPa. In addition to the strong westerly vertical wind shear in the south flank of the TUTT, this study shows that the cold-core system is associated with low relative humidity and subsidence to the east of the trough axis. As a result, the TC formation is enhanced (suppressed) in the eastern portion of the WNP when the TUTT shifts eastward (westward) on the interannual time scale. The interannual TUTT shift is closely associated with the SST anomalies in the central and eastern tropical Pacific or ENSO phases. The warm (cold) phase of ENSO corresponds to the eastward (westward) shift of the TUTT. The physical factors found to be responsible for the influence of ENSO on TC formation can be associated with the east–west shift of the TUTT. It is shown that the interannual variations of TC formation in the eastern part of the WNP basin are closely associated with the east–west shift of the TUTT due to the associated environmental conditions that are generally not favorable for TC formation.

During boreal summer, vigorous synoptic-scale wave (SSW) activity, often evident as southeast–northwest-oriented wave trains, prevails over the western North Pacific (WNP). In spite of their active role for regional weather and climate, modeling studies on SSWs are rather limited. In this study, a comprehensive survey on climate model capability in representing the WNP SSWs is conducted by analyzing simulations from 27 recent general circulation models (GCMs). Results suggest that it is challenging for GCMs to realistically represent the observed SSWs. Only 2 models out of the 27 GCMs generally well simulate both the intensity and spatial pattern of the observed SSW mode. Plausible key processes for realistic simulations of SSW activity are further explored. It is illustrated that GCM skill in representing the spatial pattern of the SSW is highly correlated to its skill in simulating the summer mean patterns of the low-level convergence associated with the WNP monsoon trough and conversion from eddy available potential energy (EAPE) to eddy kinetic energy (EKE). Meanwhile, simulated SSW intensity is found to be significantly correlated to the amplitude of 850-hPa vorticity, divergence, and conversion from EAPE to EKE over the WNP. The observed modulations of SSW activity by the Madden–Julian oscillation are able to be captured in several model simulations.

During the global warming hiatus period (1998–present), a pronounced increase in the number of intense typhoon occurrences was identified over the Philippine Sea (PS: 5°–25°N, 125°–140°E) in September after the mid-2000s. Comparing two periods before and after the mid-2000s indicates that intense typhoons rarely occurred over the PS in September before the mid-2000s, with a frequency of fewer than 0.4 per year, but reached up to nearly 1.5 per year after the mid-2000s. The abrupt increase in intense typhoon occurrences over the PS was primarily attributed to increased tropical cyclone (TC) genesis and favorable large-scale conditions for TC intensification. The increase in TC genesis number over the PS was caused by contributory dynamical conditions, including positive low-level relative vorticity anomalies and anomalous ascents, which corresponded to a southwestward shift and strengthening of the monsoon trough. In addition, among the favorable large-scale conditions, the increased relative humidity that resulted from intensified moisture flux convergence exerted essential effect on the TC intensification. These changes in atmospheric environmental conditions favoring intense typhoon occurrences over the PS were primarily associated with the change in the tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) around the mid-2000s. Besides that, the positive feedback TCs exerted on the circulation was also conducive to the unusual growth in intense typhoon occurrences over the PS. And note that the role of SST anomalies in the air–sea interaction is the key to interpret why the unique phenomenon only occurred in September.

The tornado-scale vortex in the tropical cyclone (TC) boundary layer (TCBL) has been observed in intense hurricanes and the associated intense turbulence poses a severe threat to the manned research aircraft when it penetrates hurricane eyewalls at a lower altitude. In this study, a numerical experiment in which a TC evolves in a large-scale background over the western North Pacific is conducted using the Advanced Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model by incorporating the large eddy simulation (LES) technique. The simulated tornado-scale vortex shows the similar features as revealed with the limited observational data, including the updraft/downdraft couplet, the sudden jump of wind speeds, the favorable location, and the horizontal scale. It is suggested that the WRF-LES framework can successfully simulate the tornado-scale vortex with the grids at the resolution of 37 m that cover the TC eye and eyewall. The simulated tornado-scale vortex is a cyclonic circulation with a small horizontal scale of ~ 1 km in the TCBL. It is accompanied by strong updrafts (more than 15 m s−1) and large vertical components of relative vorticity (larger than 0.2 s−1). The tornado-scale vortex favorably occurs at the inner edge of the enhanced eyewall convection or rainband within the saturated, high-θe layer, mostly below the altitude of 2 km. Nearly in all the simulated tornado-scale vortices, the narrow intense updraft is coupled with the relatively broad downdraft, constituting one or two updraft/downdraft couplets or horizontal rolling vortices, as observed by the research aircraft. The presence of the tornado-scale vortex also leads to significant gradients in the near surface wind speed and wind gusts.

Previous studies suggest that the low-frequency background makes an important contribution to the predictability of tropical cyclone (TC) activity on the intraseasonal time scale by providing large-scale conditions favorable for TC formation. Extended numerical experiments were conducted to demonstrate additional low-frequency influence on TC activity, which results from the development of a synoptic-scale wave train. The cyclonic circulation of the wave train provides low-level synoptic-scale disturbances for TC formation. The observed TC formation events over the western North Pacific during 14 August–10 September 2004 were first successfully simulated with the initial and lateral conditions derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Final (FNL) Operational Global Analysis. Then the 27-day extended experiment was repeated only with the initial and lateral boundary conditions derived from the FNL low-frequency (longer than 20 days) background. It is found that the development of the synoptic-scale wave train can be well simulated with TCs forming in the cyclonic circulations of the wave train although the wavelength of the simulated wave train is substantially reduced in the absence of higher-frequency influences with periods shorter than 20 days. Sensitivity experiments indicate that the development of wave trains is sensitive to the initial monsoon trough structure. This study suggests that the synoptic-scale wave train can develop in situ and does not need upstream precursors.

Tropical cyclones (TCs) always develop from synoptic-scale disturbances. While early studies suggested that the presence of synoptic-scale disturbances may enhance large-scale conditions for TC formation, recent studies argued that TC-precursor disturbances can establish a rotation-dominant area, which can play a crucial role in organizing convective activity and converting convective heating to rotational energy for storm-scale intensification. To demonstrate the synoptic-scale influence of TC-precursor disturbances, 91 TC formation events within the monsoon trough over the western North Pacific during 2000–10 were examined by separating TC-precursor disturbances from the low-frequency background. The composite analysis shows that the synoptic disturbances indeed enhance the mid- and low-level relative vorticity and convergence, but contribute little to reducing vertical wind shear. The dynamic composite that is conducted with respect to disturbance centers indicates that TC-precursor disturbances within the monsoon trough establish a rotation-dominant region with a radius of less than 550 km. The cyclonic rotation increases with time 72 h prior to TC formation and nearly all air particles keep recirculating in the core area with a radius of about 220 km. Analysis of a specific case suggests that vorticity increase occurs through the merger of mesoscale convective systems in the rotation-dominant area. The enhancing rotation in the core area may efficiently convert diabatic heating to kinetic energy for TC formation. Thus, it is suggested that the important role of TC-precursor disturbances in TC formation is the establishment of a limited, rotation-dominant area.

Previous studies reported that the summer western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) has extended westward since the late 1970s and the change has affected summer rainfall over China and tropical cyclone prevailing tracks in the western North Pacific. The authors show that the 500-hPa geopotential height in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere has trended upward in the warming climate and the westward extension of the WPSH quantified with the 500-hPa geopotential height is mainly a manifestation of the global rising trend. That is, the summer 500-hPa WPSH has not remarkably extended westward since the late 1970s when the global trend is removed. It is suggested that the index that indicates the west–east shift of the summer 500-hPa WPSH should be redefined and that further investigation is needed to understand the observed climate change in the summer rainfall over China and tropical cyclone prevailing tracks in the western North Pacific.

Tropical cyclones (TCs) in the eastern semicircle of large-scale monsoon gyres (MGs) were observed to take either a northward (sudden northward and northward without a sharp turn) or a westward TC turn, but only the northward turn was previously simulated in a barotropic model. To understand what controls TC track types in MGs, idealized numerical experiments are performed using the full-physics Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. These experiments indicate that TCs initially located in the eastern semicircle of MGs can generally take three types of tracks: a sudden northward track, a westward track, and a northward track without a sharp turn. The track types depend upon the TC movement relative to the MG center. In agreement with barotropic simulations, the WRF simulation confirms that approaching and being collocated with the MG center is crucial to the occurrence of sudden northward TC track changes and that sudden northward track changes can be generally accounted for by changes in the steering flow. TCs that take westward tracks and northward tracks without a sharp turn do not experience such a coalescence process. Westward TCs move faster than MGs and are then located to the west of the MG center, while TCs move more slowly than MGs and then take a northward track without a sharp turn. This study reveals that the specific TC track in the eastern semicircle of an MG is sensitive to the initial wind profiles of both MGs and TCs, suggesting that improvement in the observation of TC and MG structures is very important for predicting TC track types in MGs.

Tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific or typhoons account for one third of all TCs in the world and the change of the mean TC genesis location can affect billions of people in Pacific islands and Asian countries. The annual mean TC genesis longitude is generally controlled by the east-west shift of the tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT). A pronounced westward shift in the TUTT is found in all of the available reanalysis data sets during 1979–2012, suppressing TC genesis in the eastern portion (east of 145°E) of the western North Pacific basin due to the enhanced vertical wind shear associated with the TUTT shift. As a result, the annual mean TC genesis longitude has significantly shifted westward since 1979. The westward shifting trends in the TUTT and TC genesis are associated with the enhanced tropical tropospheric warming, which is consistent with the response of the tropospheric temperature to global warming.

A coupled earth system model (ESM) has been developed at the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST) by using version 5.3 of the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM), version 3.4 of the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO), and version 4.1 of the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE). The model is referred to as NUIST ESM1 (NESM1). Comprehensive and quantitative metrics are used to assess the model’s major modes of climate variability most relevant to subseasonal-to-interannual climate prediction. The model’s assessment is placed in a multi-model framework. The model yields a realistic annual mean and annual cycle of equatorial SST, and a reasonably realistic precipitation climatology, but has difficulty in capturing the spring-fall asymmetry and monsoon precipitation domains. The ENSO mode is reproduced well with respect to its spatial structure, power spectrum, phase locking to the annual cycle, and spatial structures of the central Pacific (CP)-ENSO and eastern Pacific (EP)-ENSO; however, the equatorial SST variability, biennial component of ENSO, and the amplitude of CP-ENSO are overestimated. The model captures realistic intraseasonal variability patterns, the vertical-zonal structures of the first two leading predictable modes of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and its eastward propagation; but the simulated MJO speed is significantly slower than observed. Compared with the T42 version, the high resolution version (T159) demonstrates improved simulation with respect to the climatology, interannual variance, monsoon-ENSO lead-lag correlation, spatial structures of the leading mode of the Asian-Australian monsoon rainfall variability, and the eastward propagation of the MJO.

The possible changes of tropical cyclone (TC) tracks and their influence on the future basin-wide intensity of TCs over the western North Pacific (WNP) are examined based on the projected large-scale environments derived from a selection of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models. Specific attention is paid to the performance of the CMIP5 climate models in simulating the large-scale environment for TC development over the WNP. A downscaling system including individual models for simulating the TC track and intensity is used to select the CMIP5 models and to simulate the TC activity in the future.

The recognition and center position methods of typhoon with high accuracy are essential for forecasting and monitoring of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the meteorological applications. We designed the improved adaptive threshold processing algorithms and segmentation of typhoon cloud system by using two value image connecting region labeling algorithm. It shows potential ability in typhoon cloud feature and the recognition of typhoon cloud system in northern hemisphere. We also designed algorithms of locating typhoon center by mathematical morphology. Experimental results show that the typhoon cloud system can be effectively recognized on could imagery and the center of cloud imagery can also be located by the proposed method. Our analysis indicated that typhoon recognition and center position accuracy based on FY-2 satellites data were high recognition rate and accuracy of the center location, and the methods can be applied to meteorological business systems.

On the basis of observations and results from the combination of a statistical formation model and a trajectory model, the inter-decadal shift of prevailing TC tracks in the western North Pacific (WNP) are examined. The contributions of the changes in large-scale steering flows and tropical cyclone (TC) formation locations to the observed inter-decadal shift are investigated and their relative importance is determined. This study focuses on two periods, 1965–1986 (ID1) and 1987–2010 (ID2), which are determined based on the abrupt change of the annual category 4 and 5 TC frequency derived from the Bayesian change-point detection analysis. It is found that the models can well simulate the primary features of prevailing TC tracks on the inter-decadal timescale. From ID1 to ID2, a significant decrease in the frequency of TC occurrences is observed over the central South China Sea and well simulated by the models. Areas with a remarkable increase in the TC frequency, which extends from the Philippine Sea to the eastern coast of China and in the west of the WNP basin, are also reasonably simulated. Above changes in the prevailing TC tracks are attributed to (1) intensified cyclonic circulation centered over the western part of China and (2) more westward-southward expansion and intensification of the subtropical high over the WNP. Further analysis reveals that the inter-decadal shift in prevailing TC tracks is mainly resulted from the combined effects of changes in large-scale steering flows and TC formation locations. Although both contribute to the inter-decadal shift in the prevailing TC tracks, changes in large-scale steering flows play a more important role compared to changes in TC formation locations.

Monsoon gyres have been identified as one of the important large-scale circulation patterns associated with tropical cyclone (TC) formation in the western North Pacific. A recent observational analysis indicated that most TCs form near the center of monsoon gyres or at the northeast end of the enhanced low-level southwesterly flows on the southeast-east periphery of monsoon gyres. In the present reported study, idealized numerical experiments were conducted to examine the tropical cyclogenesis associated with Rossby wave energy dispersion with an initial idealized monsoon gyre. The numerical simulations showed that the development of the low-level enhanced southwesterly flows on the southeast-east periphery of monsoon gyres can be induced by Rossby wave energy dispersion. Mesoscale convective systems emerged from the northeast end of the enhanced southwesterly flows with mid-level maximum relative vorticity. The simulated TC formed in the northeast of the monsoon gyre and moved westward towards the center of the monsoon gyre. The numerical experiment with a relatively smaller sized initial monsoon gyre showed the TC forming near the center of the initial monsoon gyre. The results of the present study suggest that Rossby wave energy dispersion can play an important role in TC formation in the presence of monsoon gyres.

Using Joint Warning Typhoon Center (JTWC) best track data during the period 1948–2010, decadal and interdecadal changes of annual category 4 and 5 tropical cyclone (TC) frequency in the western North Pacific basin were examined. By allowing all of the observed TCs in the JTWC dataset to move along the observed TC tracks in a TC intensity model, the annual category 4 and 5 TC frequency was simulated. The results agreed well with observations when the TC intensity prior to 1973 was adjusted based on time-dependent biases due to changes in measurement and reporting practices. The simulated and adjusted time series showed significant decadal (12–18 years) variability, while the interdecadal (18–32 years) variability was found to be statistically insignificant. Numerical simulations indicated that changes in TC tracks are the most important factor for the decadal variability in the category 4 and 5 TC frequency in the western North Pacific basin, while a combined effect of changes in SST and vertical wind shear also contributes to the decadal variability. Further analysis suggested that the active phase of category 4 and 5 TCs is closely associated with an eastward shift in the TC formation locations, which allows more TCs to follow a longer journey, favoring the development of category 4 and 5 TCs. The active phase corresponds with the SST warming over the tropical central and eastern Pacific and the eastward extension of the monsoon trough, thus leading to the eastward shift in TC formation locations.

Whereas some studies linked the enhanced tropical cyclone (TC) formation in the North Atlantic basin to the ongoing global warming, other studies attributed it to the warm phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). Using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) dataset, the present study reveals the distinctive spatial patterns associated with the influences of the AMO and global warming on TC formation in the North Atlantic basin.Two leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) patterns are identified in the climate change of TC formation on time scales longer than interannual. The first pattern is associated with the AMO and its spatial pattern shows the basin-scale enhancement of TC formation during the AMO positive phase. The second pattern is associated with global warming, showing enhanced TC formation in the east tropical Atlantic (5°–20°N, 15°–40°W) and reduced TC formation from the southeast coast of the United States extending southward to the Caribbean Sea. In the warm AMO phase, the basinwide decrease in vertical wind shear and increases in midlevel relative humidity and maximum potential intensity (MPI) favor the basinwide enhancement of TC formation. Global warming suppresses TC formation from the southeast coast of the United States extending southward to the Caribbean Sea through enhancing vertical wind shear and reducing midlevel relative humidity and MPI. The enhanced TC formation in the east tropical Atlantic is due mainly to a local increase in MPI or sea surface temperature (SST), leading to a close relationship between the Atlantic SST and TC activity over the past decades.

Membrane fouling is a long-standing problem in many industrial and fundamental applications. In this work, a zwitterionic poly(sulfobetaine methacrylate) (pSBMA) is grafted on the surface of an aromatic polyamide membrane to improve membrane fouling using surface-initiated atom transfer radical polymerization (SI-ATRP). The resulting pSBMA-coated polyamide membrane exhibits excellent surface resistance to protein adsorption and high water permeability. As compared to untreated membrane, the adsorption amount of irreversible proteins on the pSBMA-coated membrane is significantly reduced by ∼97% and water flux is also greatly improved by ∼65%, while rejection rate remains unchanged as large fouling molecules (humic acid, bovine serum albumin) in the solution are filtrated. More importantly, the pSBMA-coated polyamide membrane consistently retains a much higher water flux and improves the rejection rate of NaCl at high operating pressure. These results demonstrate that new pSBMA-coated membrane with easy synthesis can serve as potential promising membranes for membrane industry.

Tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) are usually embedded in the multitime-scale summer monsoon circulation and occasionally experience sudden track changes, which are currently a challenge in TC forecasting. A composite analysis of 15 sudden north-turning cases and 14 west-turning cases that occurred during the period 2000–10 was conducted with a focus on influences of low-frequency monsoon circulations. It is found that TCs in the two specific categories of track changes are embedded in a monsoon gyre of about 2500 km in diameter on the quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBW) time scale, which is also embedded in a larger-scale cyclonic gyre or monsoon trough on the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) time scale. The two types of track changes are closely associated with interaction between low-frequency and synoptic flows. Two different types of asymmetric flow patterns are identified on the synoptic time scale in the vicinity of these TCs. In the north-turning case, enhanced winds lie mainly on the southeast side of TCs due to strong ridging associated with interactions between low-frequency and synoptic flows. In the west-turning case, the westward extension of the subtropical high leads to ridging on the northwest side of TCs and the enhanced winds can largely offset the steering of enhanced southwesterly winds on the synoptic time scale. Thus the north-turning (west turning) sudden track changes are affected primarily by the synoptic-scale (low frequency) steering. This may be one of the reasons for the larger forecasting errors in the north-turning case than in the west-turning case.

Large-scale monsoon gyres and the involved tropical cyclone formation over the western North Pacific have been documented in previous studies. The aim of this study is to understand how monsoon gyres affect tropical cyclone formation. An observational study is conducted on monsoon gyres during the period 2000–10, with a focus on their structures and the associated tropical cyclone formation. A total of 37 monsoon gyres are identified in May–October during 2000–10, among which 31 monsoon gyres are accompanied with the formation of 42 tropical cyclones, accounting for 19.8% of the total tropical cyclone formation. Monsoon gyres are generally located on the poleward side of the composited monsoon trough with a peak occurrence in August–October. Extending about 1000 km outward from the center at lower levels, the cyclonic circulation of the composited monsoon gyre shrinks with height and is replaced with negative relative vorticity above 200 hPa. The maximum winds of the composited monsoon gyre appear 500–800 km away from the gyre center with a magnitude of 6–10 m s−1 at 850 hPa. In agreement with previous studies, the composited monsoon gyre shows enhanced southwesterly flow and convection on the south-southeastern side. Most of the tropical cyclones associated with monsoon gyres are found to form near the centers of monsoon gyres and the northeastern end of the enhanced southwesterly flows, accompanying relatively weak vertical wind shear.

The steering principle of tropical cyclone motion has been applied to tropical cyclone forecast and research for nearly 100 years. Two fundamental questions remain unanswered. One is why the effect of steering plays a dominant role in tropical cyclone motion and the other is when tropical cyclone motion deviates considerably from the steering. A high-resolution numerical experiment was conducted with the tropical cyclone in a typical large-scale monsoon trough over the western North Pacific. The simulated tropical cyclone experiences two eyewall replacement processes. Based on the potential vorticity tendency (PVT) paradigm for tropical cyclone motion, this study demonstrates that the conventional steering, which is calculated over a certain radius from the tropical cyclone center in the horizontal and a deep pressure layer in the vertical, is not literally the steering or the advection of the symmetric potential vorticity component associated with a tropical cyclone by the asymmetric flow. The conventional steering also contains the contribution from the advection of the wavenumber-one potential vorticity component by the symmetric flow. The contributions from other processes are largely cancelled due to the coherent structure of tropical cyclone circulation and thus the conventional steering plays a dominant role. The trochoidal motion around the mean tropical cyclone track with amplitudes smaller than the eye radius and periods of several hours cannot be accounted for by the effect of the conventional steering and thus the instantaneous tropical cyclone motion can considerably derivate from the conventional steering.

The study of the impact of global warming on tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is subject to uncertainty in historical datasets, especially in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin, where conflicting results have been found with the TC datasets archived in different organizations. In this study the basinwide TC intensity in the WNP basin is derived dynamically with a TC intensity model, based on the track data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) of Tokyo, and the Shanghai Typhoon Institute (STI) of the China Meteorological Administration. The dynamically derived TC intensity is compared to the three datasets and used to investigate trends in TC intensity. The associated contributions of changes in SST, vertical wind shear, and prevailing tracks are also examined. The evolution of the basinwide TC intensity in the JTWC best-track dataset can be generally reproduced over the period 1975–2007. Dynamically derived data based on the JTWC, RSMC, and STI track datasets all show an increasing trend in the peak intensity and frequency of intense typhoons, mainly because of the combined effect of changes in SST and vertical wind shear. This study suggests that the increasing intensity trend in the JTWC dataset is real, but that it may be overestimated. In contrast, the TC intensity trends in the RSMC and STI intensity datasets are dynamically inconsistent. Numerical simulations also suggest that the frequency of intense typhoons is more sensitive to changes in SST and vertical wind shear than the peak and average intensities defined in previous studies.

In this study, we have investigated contributions of tropical Indian Ocean (IO) sea surface temperature (SST) warming and El Nino—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to the interannual variability of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency over the western North Pacific (WNP) between 1948 and 2010 and the involved physical mechanisms. Both ENSO and tropical IO Basin Mode (IOBM) warming are found to play important roles in modulating the WNP TC genesis frequency, but their effects are significantly different. The time series of seasonal empirical orthogonal function of tropical IO and tropical Pacific SST with trend and multi-decadal variability removed are defined as the IOBM index and ENSO index, respectively. The results show that the IO warming year is usually the El Nino decaying year. The number of total TCs, especially weak TCs, decreases during the tropical IO warming year when an anomalous anticyclonic circulation is observed over the tropical Northwest Pacific off the equator. On the other hand, the number of intense TCs increases in the El Nino developing year because of the eastward shifts of both the western Pacific monsoon trough and the cyclonic shear of the equatorial westerlies, and thus the eastward shift of the main TC genesis region. It is also found that the relationship between ENSO and the frequency of intense TCs has a decadal variation. During 1968–1987, the number of intense TCs was not related to ENSO with a correlation coefficient of only 0.19, while the correlation coefficient is 0.63 and 0.73 during 1948–1967 and 1988–2007, respectively. The extent to which the WNP anomalous anticyclone is forced by IO warming is investigated by using the global climate model (European Centre Hamburg Model, ECHAM) with imposed SST anomalies over the tropical IO. The results suggest that the WNP anomalous anticyclone that develops from June to September results mainly from the northward shift of the tropical IO warming from boreal spring to boreal summer.

An observational analysis of observed sudden typhoon track changes is conducted with a focus on the underlying mechanism and the possible role of slowly varying low-frequency flows. Four typhoons that took a generally northwestward track prior to sharply turning northeastward in the vicinity of the East China Sea are investigated. It is found that the sudden track changes occurred near the center of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO)-scale cyclonic circulation or at the bifurcation point of the steering flows at 700 hPa, and they were all associated with a well-developed quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBW)-scale gyre. Calculation of vorticity advection suggests that the peripheral ridging resulting from the interaction between the typhoons and the flows on the MJO and QBW scales can compress the typhoon circulation, leading to an area of high winds to the east or south of the typhoon center. The enhanced synoptic-scale winds shifted the typhoons northward and placed them in a northeastward orbit under the steering of the flows associated with the Pacific subtropical high. The sudden track change can be likened to the maneuvering of satellite orbit change in that the enhanced synoptic-scale winds act as a booster rocket to shift the typhoons northward to the southwesterly steering flows.

In the second part of this study, numerical experiments are conducted to investigate the influences of multi-time-scale monsoonal flows on the track change of Typhoon Morakot (2009). While the control simulation captures the slowing and northward deflections in the vicinity of Taiwan Island, the highly asymmetric rainfall structure, and the associated rainfall pattern, sensitivity experiments suggest that the westward movement prior to the landfall on Taiwan and the subsequent northward shifts in the vicinity of Taiwan were closely associated with the interaction between Morakot and multi-time-scale monsoonal flows. Prior to the landfall on Taiwan, Morakot moved westward directly toward Taiwan because of a synoptic wave train–like pattern, which consisted of Goni over mainland China, Morakot, and a cyclone over the western North Pacific with an anticyclone to the west of Morakot. Numerical simulation suggests that strong northerly winds between Morakot and the anticyclone reduced the northward steering component associated with the low-frequency flow prior to the landfall. Numerical experiments confirm that the northward track shifts that occurred in the vicinity of Taiwan Island were a result of the coalescences of Morakot with a quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBW)-scale gyre prior to the landfall on Taiwan and a Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO)-scale gyre in the Taiwan Strait. The simulation of Morakot and the associated sensitivity experiments agree with the previous barotropic study that the interaction between tropical cyclones and low-frequency monsoon gyres can cause sudden changes in tropical cyclone tracks.

Typhoon Morakot made landfall on Taiwan with a record rainfall of 3031.5 mm during 6–13 August 2009. While previous studies have emphasized the influence of southwesterly winds associated with intraseasonal oscillations and monsoon surges on moisture supply, the interaction between Morakot and low-frequency monsoon flows and the resulting influence on the slow movement and asymmetric precipitation structure of the typhoon were examined observationally. Embedded in multi-time-scale monsoonal flows, Morakot generally moved westward prior to its landfall on Taiwan and underwent a coalescence process first with a cyclonic gyre on the quasi-biweekly oscillation time scale and then with a cyclonic gyre on the Madden–Julian oscillation time scale. The coalescence enhanced the synoptic-scale southwesterly winds of Morakot and thus decreased its westward movement and turned the track northward, leading to an unusually long residence time in the vicinity of Taiwan. The resulting slow movement and collocation with the low-frequency gyres also maintained the major rainfall in southern Taiwan because the low-frequency flows played an important role in enhancing the winds on the southern side, especially during 6–9 August 2009. In addition to the lifting effect of the Taiwan terrain and the moisture supply associated with monsoon flows, the study suggests that the monsoonal influence maintained the major rainfall area in southern Taiwan through reducing the translation speed, shifting Morakot northward, and enhancing the low-frequency flows on the southern side of the typhoon. Since the enhanced low-frequency flows did not shift northward with the movement of Morakot, its primary rainfall expanded outward with time as the typhoon center moved northwestward after its landfall on Taiwan.

Increasing tropical cyclone (TC) influence in the subtropical East Asia and decreasing TC activity in the South China Sea over the past few decades have been researched in previous studies. The singular value decomposition (SVD) of observational data and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate change simulations in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) shows that the observed TC track changes are linked to the leading SVD mode of global sea surface temperature (SST) warming and the associated changes in large-scale steering flows. The selected five IPCC models can generally simulate the leading mode in their ensemble control run and prediction, suggesting the possible persistence of the reported track changes by 2040.

In order to re-examine some trends related to tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific since 1949, the unreliable maximum sustained wind (V max) recorded in the 1949–1978 TC best-track data from the Shanghai Typhoon Institute was modified based on the wind-pressure relationships (WPRs) in this study. Compared to the WPR scheme based on the cyclostrophic balance, the WPR scheme based on the gradient balance could give a better fit to TCs under higher wind speeds and could introduce smaller estimated errors for TCs locating at higher latitudes as well as TCs landing on the continent. After the Vmax modification based on minimum sea-level pressure and TC center latitude, the revised annual number of category 4–5 typhoons shows no long-term trend, while the potential destructiveness measured by power-dissipation index decreases slightly, and this trend is not significant in the period 1949–2008.

Ultrafiltration (UF) has become an accepted process for drinking water treatment, but membrane fouling remains a significant problem. Polyethersulfone (PES)/SiO 2 composite membranes were prepared by phase inversion method with nano-SiO 2 as additive. Water contact angle measurement was conducted to investigate the hydrophilicity and surface wettability of the membranes. The effect of SiO 2 nanoparticles on the membrane permeation properties, anti-fouling performances, and membrane morphologies and structures was examined and discussed. The influence of SiO 2 on the water permeability, anti-fouling of the PES membranes were evaluated by raw water UF experiments. The results showed that the membrane structure was not obviously affected by addition of SiO 2 , and the membrane performances such as hydrophilicity and anti-fouling ability were enhanced by adding SiO 2 nanoparticles.

The individual contributions of changes in sea surface temperature (SST), vertical wind shear and tropical cyclone (TC) tracks to the interannual TC intensity change in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin are examined based on the selected 7 warm years and 7 cold years during the period 1970–2007. The selected warm and cold years are defined by the Nino-3.4 SST anomalies index, and correspond to El Nino and La Nina events, respectively. The intensity model used in this study can simulate the spatial distribution and differences of TC intensity when the model is integrated along the observed TC tracks in the warm and cold years. It is found that the change of TC tracks plays a dominant role in the observed TC intensity difference between warm and cold years. During the warm years, TC formation is enhanced in the southeast quadrant, and more TCs take a northwestward track during the warm years than during the cold years because of the interannual change in the large-scale steering flows. As a result, TCs have a longer time for intensification and develop into intense TCs during the warm years when compared to the cold years.

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) data show that the Saharan air layer (SAL) is a dry, warm, and well-mixed layer between 950 and 500 hPa over the tropical Atlantic, extending westward from the African coast to the Caribbean Sea. The formations of both Hurricane Isabel and Tropical Depression 14 (TD14) were accompanied with outbreaks of SAL air during the period 1–12 September 2003, although TD14 failed to develop into a named tropical cyclone. The influence of the SAL on their formations is investigated by examining data from satellite observations and numerical simulations, in which AIRS data are incorporated into the MM5 model through the nudging technique.

Despite the observed high correlation between the Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) and the Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity, interpretation of this relationship remains uncertain. This study suggests that the tropical Atlantic sea surface warming induces a pair of anomalous low-level cyclones on each side of the equator, providing favorable conditions for enhancing TC formation east of 45°W, while the effect of SST warming in the tropical Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean tends to suppress the TC formation. Over the past 30 years (1978–2007), the TC activity in the Atlantic basin is characterized with significant enhancement of TC formation east of 45°W, where the total TC number increased significantly compared to the period 1948–77. Despite the possible undercount of TCs, this study shows that the recently enhanced TC formation may not be totally accounted for by the poor TC observing network prior to the satellite era. The Atlantic sea surface warming that occurred in recent decades might have allowed more TCs to form, to form earlier, and to take a longer track, while the effect is partially offset by the SST warming in Indian and Pacific Oceans. This study suggests that the close relationship between the Atlantic SST and TC activity over the past 30 years, including basinwide increases in the average lifetime, annual frequency, proportion of intense hurricanes, and annual accumulated power dissipation index (PDI), as reported in previous studies, is mainly a result of the SST warming in the tropical Atlantic exceeding that in the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. The results agree with recent argument that the relative Atlantic SST change or the SST difference between the tropical Atlantic and other oceans play an important role in controlling long-term TC activity in the Atlantic basin.