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To investigate the epidemiology of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) and the genetic characteristics of enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) in Linyi of Shandong Province, China during 2007-2012. The number of reported HFMD cases were obtained from the National Notifiable Disease Reporting System (NNDRS) were analyzed by descriptive epidemiology method; the VP1 region of EV-A71 isolated from HFMD patients in Linyi was amplified and sequenced. Finally, the genetic variability and phylogenecity of VP1 sequences of EV-A71 were analyzed by MEGA 5.0. The results showed that HFMD incidence was reported in each year from 2007 to 2012 in Linyi, and the highest incidence and mortality were reported in 2009, when there were total 14697 cases and 9 of death. The reported incidence was 140.28/100000, and the mortality was 0.086/100000. The peak incidence usually occurred between April and July, and the summit occurred in May. Scattered children accounted for 77.37%-92.00% of all cases. The peak age was 2.5 years during 2007-2009 and 1.5 years during 2010-2012. A total of 1365 laboratory-confirmed HFMD cases were reported in the 6 consecutive years, accounting for 2.98% of the gross number. Among these reports, the ratio of EV-A71 was 44.18%, and the ratio of coxsackievirus A16 (CVA16) was 46.59%. All EV-A71 strains isolated in Linyi during 2007-2012 belonged to the C4a evolutionary branch of C4 genotype. In conclusion, HFMD outbreaks occurred every year in Linyi during 2007-2012. Incidence varied significantly among different counties. The peak incidence in each year lasted from April to July. Most of the patients were children under 3 years of age, and scattered children took the highest proportion. Co-circulation of EV-A71 and CVA16 was the major cause of HFMD in each year. Since the first report of HFMD prevalence caused by EV-A71 (C4a) in 2007, the virus has been prevalent continuously in Linyi for 6 years.

Background The first case of human infection with avian influenza A (H7N9) virus was identified in March, 2013 and the new H7N9 virus infected 134 patients and killed 45 people in China as of September 30, 2013. Family clusters with confirmed or suspected the new H7N9 virus infection were previously reported, but the family cluster of H7N9 virus infection in Shandong Province was first reported. Case presentation A 36-year-old man was admitted to Zaozhuang City Hospital with progressive respiratory distress and suspicion of impending acute respiratory distress syndrome on April 21. The chest radiography revealed bilateral ground-glass opacities and pulmonary lesions. The second case, the first case’s 4 year old son, was admitted to the same hospital on April 28 with fever and multiple patchy shadows in the bilateral lungs. Both of the two cases were confirmed to infect with H7N9 virus by the results of real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase-chain reaction (rRT-PCR), virus isolation and serum antibody titer. At the same time, one environment samples was detected positive for H7N9 virus in the living poultry market in Zaozhuang. The homologous analysis of the full genome sequence indicated that both viruses from the patients were almost genetically identical. The field epidemiology investigation showed that the two cases had no recognized exposure to poultry, but had the exposure to the environment. The second case had substantial unprotected close exposure to his ill father and developed symptoms seven days after his last contact with his father. After surgery, the index case and his son were discharged on May 16 and May 6, respectively. 11 close contacts of both patients were identified and tested negative both the throat swabs and the serum antibody. Conclusion The infection of the index case probably resulted from contact with environmentally contaminated material. For the son, the probable infection source was from the index case during unprotected exposure, but the possibility from the environment or other sources could not be completely ruled out.

To understand the clinical features of death from hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) and to explore the early warning index of HFMD death.A total of 41 HFMD death cases were collected as case group in Shandong province between 2009 and 2011, and another 123 serious HFMD cases were selected as control group according to the similar gender, place of origin and hospital level, with the ratio at 1:3. We investigated the general situation, clinical treatment, past medical history, clinical symptoms and signs of the ill children, and applied the conditional logistic regression to explore early warning index of HFMD death.The rate of patients who had symptoms in nervous system, digestive system, circulatory system and respiratory system were separately 90.2% (37/41), 58.5% (24/41), 53.7% (22/41) and 90.2% (37/41) in case group; and the proportions were 44.7% (55/123), 13.8% (17/123), 10.6% (13/123) and 12.2% (15/123) respectively in control group. The difference between the two groups showed statistical significance (χ(2) = 25.881, 32.791, 34.011, 86.505, P0.05). In case group, 37 patients had neurogenic pulmonary edema, 26 patients got encephalitis, 15 patients had respiratory and circulatory failure, 7 patients got pulmonary hemorrhage, 4 patients had multiple organ failure, 4 patients got myocarditis and 1 patient had cerebral hernia. According to multi-factor logistic regression analysis, the early warning indicators of HFMD death included neck resistance (case group: 34.1% (14/41), control group: 4.1% (5/123); OR = 7.145, 95%CI: 1.748 - 29.204), vomiting (case group: 58.5% (24/41), control group: 13.8% (17/123); OR = 5.632, 95%CI: 1.793 - 17.685) and increase of heart rate (case group: 53.7% (22/41), control group: 10.6% (14/123), OR = 6.370, 95%CI: 1.517 - 26.743).In the process of clinical treatment and care, we should interfere the serious HFMD patients with neck resistance, vomiting and increase of heart rate, and thereby reduce the death from HFMD.

In this paper, we present a novel method for fuzzy risk analysis based on a new similarity measure of generalized fuzzy numbers. Firstly, we present a new method to measure the degree of similarity between generalized fuzzy numbers based on the geometric distance, the center of gravity (COG) distance, the perimeter and the area. We also prove some properties of the proposed similarity measure and use an example to compare with the existing measures. The proposed similarity measure can overcome the drawbacks of the existing methods. Finally we apply the proposed similarity measure to deal with fuzzy risk analysis problems which provides a useful way for dealing with fuzzy risk analysis problems considered the degrees of confidence of decision makers’ opinions.