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Septembre 2004 Le trafic des femmes et fillettes est en nette expansion ces dernières années, à cause du clivage toujours croissant, politique, économique et social, entre pays riches et pays émergents. Des dizaines de milliers de femmes et de fillettes sont ainsi trafiquées en Asie du Sud-Est, du milieu rural vers le milieu urbain, et de celui-ci vers l’international (Amériques, Corée du Sud, Europe, Japon, Moyen-Orient, Singapour, Taïwan). Ce commerce illicite très lucratif, se situe en tro...

L'Asie et le Pacifique. Immense région, neuve et ancienne à la fois, où vivent les deux tiers de l'humanité. Région de tous les superlatifs, de toutes les exceptions, de la Chine, renaissant perpétuellement des catastrophes et aléas de son Histoire, de l'Inde, continent à elle seule, ou du Japon, archipel des futurs. Une région qui tire la croissance mondiale et qui devient le centre du monde. Qui aurait pu dire que le PIB de l'Asie et du Pacifique ferait jeu égal avec celui de l'Union européenne ? Et demain ? Cet ouvrage dessine le panorama de l'Asie-Monde, en réunissant une centaine de textes de chercheurs et de spécialistes publiés sur le site Internet du Réseau Asie et Pacifique (CNRS/FMSH), entre 2002 et 2011. Ces travaux, couvrant les sciences humaines et sociales, disent le passé, avertissent de l'avenir, montrent la complexité de l'Asie et du Pacifique, leurs failles, leurs atouts, leurs enjeux. Ils révèlent les racines profondes et donc les fondements du dynamisme de ces nouvelles puissances qui pourraient bientôt prendre les commandes de l'avenir de l'humanité. Une somme savante et accessible sur l'Asie et le Pacifique contemporains, qui rend sensibles les multiples aspects de ce formidable et inéluctable basculement du monde.

International audience

Summary This article seeks to portray a realistic picture of the current situation af the Chinese diaspora in this frontier region and perhaps defend the reputation of this community, the members of which are often systematically accused of being implicated in the flesh trade, in their capacity as the main people concerned as well as participants, for if some members of the Chinese community are indeed involved in prostitution and flesh trade, all are not necessarily concerned and there are r...

In most Southeast Asian countries, the members of the Chinese Diaspora have secured important position in the fields of administration, education and religion. Thanks to their capacity to work and to adapt as well as their frugality, their cultural influence continues to grow. Clans and factions form the essential structure of the ancient Chinese society. If Imperial China never developed a Civil Law, it's probably because the ancient Chinese society never really saw the need for it. This structure of relations could also explain why the Chinese civilisation didn't develop a real territorial reference. The Chinese Diaspora today covers different political and economical realities which could be conflicting. What primarily characterises the Diaspora is apparently its great capacity to organise itself in any economical, political, social or cultural environment. The capacity if its economic and administrative elites had been the determining factor of their development. However, the existence of informal and trans-national networks can also help the development of criminal activities. The presence of mafia groups and gangs of Chinese origin and their collusion with the world of finance and politics are historical facts in the region and could represent today a real threat for its stability. These criminal networks tend to forge business link with their Japanese, Russian, Korea, Italian or South American counterparts and sometimes could interfere with the process of political decision making.

The study evaluates the cost and revenue efficiency of the Zimbabwean banking sector using the data envelopment analysis and Tobit regression model. Revenue and cost efficiency increased between 2009 and 2012 as a result of economic stability and growth registered in the economy. The trend in efficiency was negatively affected during 2013-2014 as a result of declining economic growth and price controls, which were imposed on the banking sector. The study established that private banks were more revenue and cost efficient compared to public banks. Domestic banks were relatively cost and revenue efficient compared to foreign banks supporting the home field advantage hypothesis. Commercial banks were cost and revenue efficient compared to building societies. The main drivers of both cost and revenue efficiency are cost income ratio, capital adequacy, macroeconomic growth and inflation. The results mean that banking sector efficiency is dependent on the decisions of the bank regulators and bank management. It is recommended that the government should improve the operating environment for banks and desist from interfering with operation of market forces. Competition among banks should be encouraged to improve the efficiency of the banking sector.Keywords: Cost and revenue efficiency, Data envelopment analysis, Tobit regression, Zimbabwe

This paper explores the role of monetary policy in Zimbabwe’s hyperinflation episode, using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Error Correction Model (ECM) approaches with monthly data from 2006:01 to 2008:07. Results from both the ECM and ARDL approaches show that during the study period, hyperinflation was caused by expansionary monetary policy, the exchange rate premium and inflation expectations for both the short and long-term. Zimbabwe’s hyperinflation episode brings to the fore the importance of ensuring that the Central Bank is independent in executing its mandate of influencing the monetary policy process in a manner that ensures price stability.Keywords: Monetary Policy; Hyperinflation; Autoregressive Distributed Lag; Error Correction Model

This paper applies dynamic stochastic simulation methods to assess sustainable public debt management policies in Zimbabwe. The methodology applied involves estimating a fiscal reaction function and using it to simulate public debt path using a stochastic approach and historical information on drivers of public debt accumulation and their volatility. The results from the baseline scenario show that Zimbabwe’s public debt would not deviate much from the desired regional indicative target in the SADC region of 60 percent in the medium to long-term. The policy implication is the need for policy makers to proactively respond to the changing macroeconomic environment and to implement countercyclical fiscal policies to limit the probability of debt from exploding. Key words: Public debt dynamics, debt sustainability, stochastic simulation, fiscal reaction function.

This paper presents a simulation of alternative strategies for public debt issuance in Zimbabwe. The analysis is undertaken with a view to find a strategy that minimises the cost and risk of public debt under different scenarios of interest and exchange rate developments. The premise is that increases in debt service charges due to risky allocation of public debt can substantially change public debt dynamics. The risky allocation can derive from an excessive exposure of the government to exchange rate, interest rate and commodity price shocks. The results show a trade-off between a debt strategy that largely depends on more external concessional borrowing and a debt strategy aimed at increasing the share of domestic debt in the public debt portfolio for market development purposes. While the strategy that maximises recourse to external concessional borrowing was found to be desirable from a cost perspective, it proved to be less desirable from a risk perspective after taking into consideration the exchange rate effect. Moreover the conditions attached by international financial institutions and other official creditors to accessing concessional loans makes the strategy less desirable. The results, therefore, underscore the need for authorities to ensure a neat balance between external and domestic debt borrowing to ensure long-term public debt sustainability.Keywords: Public debt management; Debt cost; Risk

This study empirically evaluates spatial externalities in financial development in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) in line with spatial proximity theory. The study specifically tests whether financially less developed economies in SADC benefit from their linkages with and proximity to South Africa, a financially developed economy. GMM and Dynamic Fixed Effect estimations established that financial development in the SADC is not immune to spatial externalities. Results indicate that monetary measures are more sensitive to geography than credit. Allowing for spatiality, credit from South Africa displays strong positive spatiality under Dynamic Fixed Effects but no effect under GMM, possibly responding to crowding-out, South Africa’s global linkages and natural flow of credit towards optimal returns. Implicitly, the spatial variable has a strong complementary effect in the money market and a relatively inconsistent complementary effect in the credit market. Estimations that controlled for effects of monetary union in the model also confirm that financial development is affected by spatiality in the money market and is less responsive to spatial effects in credit. The current level of trade and financial openness in SADC is not enough to facilitate financial development in other subsectors of the financial sector, beyond money.Keywords: Spatial Externalities; Spatiality; Financial Development; SADC.

International audience