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Population genetic theory predicts that in small populations, random genetic drift will fix and accumulate slightly deleterious mutations, resulting in reduced reproductive output. This genetic load due to random drift (i.e., drift load) can increase the extinction risk of small populations. We studied the relationship between genetic variability (indicator of past population size) and reproductive output in eight isolated, natural populations of the hermaphroditic snail Lymnaea stagnalis. In a common laboratory environment, snails from populations with the lowest genetic variability mature slower and have lower fecundity than snails from genetically more variable populations. This result suggests that past small population size has resulted in increased drift load, as predicted. The relationship between genetic variability and reproductive output is independent of the amount of nonrandom mating within populations. However, reproductive output and the current density of snails in the populations were not correlated. Instead, data from the natural populations suggest that trematode parasites may determine, at least in part, population densities of the snails.

Four major hypotheses have been put forward to explain local species richness of commensal or parasitic species. The resource distribution hypothesis predicts that regionally widespread host species are able to support higher local species richness of commensals or parasites. On the other hand, the resource size hypothesis predicts that larger hosts can support more species than smaller hosts, and comparably, the resource abundance hypothesis predicts that hosts that offer more resources are able to support more species. Finally, the resource concentration hypothesis predicts that hosts that occur in high-density patches support higher species richness. In this study, we tested the first three of the above hypotheses with myrmecophilous beetles and their host ants. In addition to species richness of myrmecophilous beetles, we also applied the above hypotheses to explain the distribution of the beetles. Our data are exclusively based on an extensive literature survey. Myrmecophilous beetles live in naturally fragmented environments composed of host ant colonies and they are exclusively dependent on ants. We found that the distribution of the host ants and the colony size of the host ants had a positive effect on both the species richness and the distribution of myrmecophilous beetles. In the same way, we found that myrmecophilous beetle species that are generalists, i.e. have more than one host ant species, and thus have more abundant resources, were more widely distributed than specialist species. Thus, we found support for the hypothesis that resource distribution, resource size and resource abundance have an effect on species richness and on the distribution of species.

Limited availability of mating partners has been proposed as an explanation for the occurrence of simultaneous hermaphroditism in animals with pair mating. When low population density or low mobility of a species limits the number of potential mates, simultaneous hermaphrodites may have a selective advantage because, first, they are able to adjust the allocation of resources between male and female functions in order to maximize fitness; second, in a hermaphroditic population the likelihood of meeting a partner is higher because all individuals are potential mates; and, third, in the absence of mating partners, many simultaneously hermaphroditic animals have the option of reproducing through self-fertilization. Recognizing that mate availability is central to the existing theory of hermaphroditism in animals, it is important to examine the effects of mate search on predictions of the stability of hermaphroditism. Many hermaphroditic animals can increase the number of potential mates they contact by active searching. However, since mate search has costs in terms of time and energy, the increased number of potential mates will be traded off against the amount of resources that can be allocated to the production of gametes. We explore the consequences of this trade-off to the evolution of mating strategies and to the selective advantage of self-fertilization. We show that in low and moderate population densities, poor mate-search efficiency and high costs of searching stabilize hermaphroditism and bias sex allocation toward female function. In addition, in very low population densities, there is strong selective advantage for self-fertilization, but this advantage decreases considerably in species with high mate-search efficiency. Most important, however, we present a novel evolutionary prediction: when mate search is efficient, disruptive frequency-dependent selection on time allocation to mate search leads to the evolution of searching and nonsearching phenotypes and, ultimately, to the evolution of males and females.

Research on the evolution of life histories addresses the topic of fitness trade-offs between semelparity (reproducing once in a lifetime) and iteroparity (repeated reproductive bouts per lifetime). Bulmer (1994) derived the relationship v+P(A)<1 (P(A) is the adult survival;vb(S) and b(S) are the offspring numbers for iteroparous and semelparous breeding strategies, respectively), under which a resident semelparous population cannot be invaded by an iteroparous mutant when the underlying population dynamics are stable. We took Bulmer's population dynamics, and added noise in juvenile and adult survival and in offspring numbers. Long-term coexistence of the two strategies is possible in much of the parameter region ofv +P(A)<1 when noise occurs simultaneously in all three components, or (more restricted) when it affects juvenile and adult survival or adult survival and offspring numbers. Iteroparity cannot persist when the environmental variability involves juvenile survival and offspring numbers, or when the noise acts on the three components separately.

Seed bank is a plant life history strategy against the unpredictability of the biotic and the abiotic environment. We simulated competition between a seed banking and a non-banking morph of an annual plant. A constant fraction of the banker morph seeds was allocated to the seed bank, where they had a constant mortality and germination rate. All surviving seeds of the non-banker morph germinated in the next generation. The seedlings of both morphs experienced similar density-dependent mortality. Whether one of the morphs wins or the morphs coexist was evaluated from parameter space plots and statistically with logistic regression analysis. All parameters of the model had a significant, nonlinear effect on the persistence of the morphs, supporting our approach of numerically covering a wide range of parameter values. The seed production of a focal morph increased its survival and decreased the survival of the other morph. Otherwise, the morphs showed opposite response to changes in the model parameters. The banker morph was usually the winning strategy when it had a higher seed production than the non-banker morph. The banker morph benefitted from high germination probability, while the non-banker benefitted from high allocation to seed bank and high seed mortality. The coexistence of the morphs was inhibited by high banker morph seed production and seed mortality and promoted by high values of all other parameters. The system showed complex dynamics when banking was the winning strategy or the morphs coexisted. In addition, a part of the parameter space where the non-banker morph wins showed complex dynamics. Our results suggest that seed banking is a beneficial strategy if seed number is increased consequently, e.g. due to a decreased seed size. If banking decreases seed number, the non-banker morph wins or the two morphs coexist.

The interpretation of ecological data has been greatly improved by bridging the gap between ecological and statistical models. The major challenge is to separate competing hypotheses concerning demography, or other ecological relationships, and environmental variability (noise). In this paper we demonstrate that this may be an arduous, if not impossible, task. It is the lack of adequate ecological theory, rather than statistical sophistication, which leads to this problem. A reconstruction of underlying ecological processes can only be done if we are certain of either the demographic or the noise model, which is something that can only be achieved by an improved theory of stochastic ecological processes. Ignoring the fact that this is a real problem may mislead ecologists and result in erroneous conclusions about the relative importance of endogenous and exogenous factors in natural ecosystems. The lack of correct model identification may also have far-reaching consequences for population management and conservation.

Climate change has ignited lively research into its impact on various population-level processes. The research agenda in ecology says that some of the fluctuations in population size are accountable for by the external noise (e.g. weather) modulating the dynamics of populations. We obeyed the agenda by assuming population growth after a resource-limited Leslie matrix model in an age-structured population. The renewal process was disturbed by superimposing noise on the development of numbers in one or several age groups. We constructed models for iteroparous and semelparous breeders so that, for both categories, the population growth rate was matching. We analysed how the modulated population dynamics correlates with the noise signal with different time-lags. No significant correlations were observed for semelparous breeders, whereas for iteroparous breeders high correlations were frequently observed with time-lags of 71 year or longer. However, the latter occurs under red-coloured noise and for low growth rates when the disturbance is on the youngest age group only. It is laborious to find any clear signs of the (red) noise- and age group-specific fluctuations if the disturbance influences older age groups only. These results cast doubts on the possibility of detecting the signature of external disturbance after it has modulated temporal fluctuations in age-structured populations.

Self-organization and pattern formation represent the emergence of order in temporal and spatial processes. Self-organization in population ecology is gaining attention due to the recent advances concerning temporal fluctuations in the population size of dispersal-linked subunits. We shall report that spatially structured models of population renewal promote the emergence of a complex power law order in spatial population dynamics. We analyse a variety of population models showing that self-organization can be identified as a temporal match in population dynamics among local units, and how the synchrony changes in time. Our theoretical results are concordant with analyses of population data on the Canada lynx.

We shall examine the impact of Charles S. Elton's 1924 article on periodic fluctuations in animal populations on the development of modern population ecology. We argue that his impact has been substantial and that during the past 75 years of research on multi-annual periodic fluctuations in numbers of voles, lemmings, hares, lynx and game animals he has contributed much to the contemporary understanding of the causes and consequences of population regulation. Elton was convinced that the cause of the regular fluctuations was climatic variation. To support this conclusion, he examined long-term population data then available. Despite his firm belief in a climatic cause of the self-repeating periodic dynamics which many species display, Elton was insightful and far-sighted enough to outline many of the other hypotheses since put forward as an explanation for the enigmatic long-term dynamics of some animal populations. An interesting, but largely neglected aspect in Elton's paper is that it ends with speculation regarding the evolutionary consequences of periodic population fluctuations. The modern understanding of these issues will also be scrutinised here. In population ecology, Elton's 1924 paper has spawned a whole industry of research on populations displaying multi-annual periodicity. Despite the efforts of numerous research teams and individuals focusing on the origins of multi-annual population cycles, and despite the early availability of different explanatory hypotheses, we are still lacking rigorous tests of some of these hypotheses and, consequently, a consensus of the causes of periodic fluctuations in animal populations. Although Elton would have been happy to see so much effort spent on cyclic populations, we also argue that it is unfortunate if this focus on a special case of population dynamics should distract our attention from more general problems in population and community dynamics.

One of the most ubiquitous phenomena of all natural populations is their variability in numbers in space and time. However, there are notable differences among populations in the way the population size fluctuates. One of the major challenges in population and community ecology is to explain and understand this variety and to find possible underlying rules that might be modified from case-to-case. Population variability also has a spatial component because fluctuations are often synchronized over relatively large distances. Recently, this has led to growing interest in how 'internal' (density-dependent) processes interact with 'external' factors such as environmental variability.

Characterizing population fluctuations and their causes is a major theme in population ecology. The debate is on the relative merits of density-dependent and density-independent effects. One paradigm (revived by the research on global warming and its relation to long-term population data) states that fluctuations in population densities can often be accounted for by external noise. Several empirical models have been suggested to support this view. We followed this by assuming a given population skeleton dynamics (Ricker dynamics and second-order autoregressive dynamics) topped off with noise composed of low- and high-frequency components. Our aim was to determine to what extent the modulated population dynamics correlate with the noise signal. High correlations (with time-lag -1) were observed with both model categories in the region of stable dynamics, but not in the region of periodic or complex dynamics. This finding is not very sensitive to low-frequency noise. High correlations throughout the entire range of dynamics are only achievable when the impact of the noise is very high. Fitted parameter values of skeleton dynamics modulated with noise are prone to err substantially. This casts doubt as to what degree the underlying dynamics are any more recognizable after being modulated by the external noise.

A persistent question in the evolution of life histories is the fitness trade-off between reproducing only once (semelparity) in a lifetime or reproducing repeated times in different seasons (iteroparity). The problem can be formulated into a research agenda by assuming that one reproductive strategy is resident (has already evolved) and by asking whether invasion (evolution) of an alternative reproductive strategy is possible. For a spatially nonstructured system, Bulmer (1994) derived the relationship v + PA < 1 (PA is adult survival; vbS and bS are offspring numbers for iteroparous and semelparous breeding strategies, respectively) at which semelparous population cannot be invaded by an iteroparous mutant. When the inequality is changed to v + PA > 1, invasion of a semelparous mutant is not possible. From the inequalities, it is easy to see that possibilities for evolutionary establishment of a novel reproductive strategy are rather narrow. We extended the evolutionary scenario into a spatially structured system with dispersal linkage among the subunits. In this domain, a rare reproductive strategy can easily invade a population dominated by a resident reproductive strategy. The parameter space enabling invasion is far more generous with spatially structured evolutionary scenarios than in a spatially nonstructured system.

In the 1970s ecological research detected chaos and other forms of complex dynamics in simple population dynamics models, initiating a new research tradition in ecology. However, the investigations of complex population dynamics have mainly concentrated on single populations and not on higher dimensional ecological systems. Here we report a detailed study of the complicated dynamics occurring in a basic discrete-time model of host-parasitoid interaction. The complexities include (a) non-unique dynamics, meaning that several attractors coexist, (b) basins of attraction (defined as the set of the initial conditions leading to a certain type of an attractor) with fractal properties (pattern of self-similarity and fractal basin boundaries), (c) intermittency, (d) supertransients, (e) chaotic attractors, and (f) "transient chaos". Because of these complexities minor changes in parameter or initial values may strikingly change the dynamic behavior of the system. All the phenomena presented in this paper should be kept in mind when examining and interpreting the dynamics of ecological systems. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

Frequency-dependent selection is so fundamental to modern evolutionary thinking that everyone `knows' the concept. Yet the term is used to refer to different types of selection. The concept is well defined in the original context of population genetics theory, which focuses on short-term evolutionary change. The original concept becomes ambiguous, however, when used in the context of long-term evolution, where density dependence becomes essential. Weak and strong frequency dependence, as distinguished in this article, refer to two very different forms of selection.

We examine the effects of environmental noise on populations that are parts of simple two-species food webs. We assume that the species are strongly interacting and that one or the other population is affected by the noise signal. Further assuming that a stable equilibrium with positive population densities exists, we are able to perform a complete frequency analysis of the system. If only one of the populations is subject to noise, the relative noise response by both populations is fully determined by the sign of a single element of the Jacobian matrix. The analysis is readily extended to cases when both species are affected by noise or when the food web has more than two species. The general conclusion about relative responses to noise is then less unambiguous, but the power spectra describing the frequency composition of the population variabilities are nevertheless completely determined. These results are entirely independent on the exact nature of the interaction (i.e., predation, competition, mutualism) between the populations. The results show that the interpretation of the "color" of ecological time series (i.e., the frequency composition of population variability over time) may be complicated by species interactions. The propagation of noise signals through food webs and the importance of web structure for the expected response of all parts of the web to such signals is a challenging field for future studies.

Theoretical research into the dynamics of coupled populations has suggested a rich ensemble of spatial structures that are created and maintained either by external disturbances or self-reinforcing interactions among the populations. Long-term data of the Canadian lynx from eight Canadian provinces display large-scale spatial synchrony in population fluctuations. The synchronous dynamics are not time-invariant, however, as pairs of populations that are initially in step may drift out of phase and back into phase. These observations are in agreement with predictions of a spatially-linked population model and support contemporary population ecology theory.

The effect of red, white and blue environmental noise on discrete-time population dynamics is analyzed. The coloured noise is superimposed on Moran-Ricker and Maynard Smith dynamics, the resulting power spectra are less than examined. Time series dominated by short- and long-term fluctuations are said to be blue and red, respectively. In the stable range of the Moran-Ricker dynamics, environmental noise of any colour will make population dynamics red or blue depending the intrinsic growth rate. Thus, telling apart the colour of the noise from the colour of the population dynamics may not be possible. Population dynamics subjected to red and blue environmental noises show, respectively, more red or blue power spectra than those subjected to white noise. The sensitivity to differences in the noise colours decreases with increasing complexity and ultimately disappears in the chaotic range of the population dynamics. These findings are duplicated with the Maynard Smith model for high growth rates when the strength of density dependence changes. However, for low growth rates the power spectra of the population dynamics with noise are red in stable, periodic and aperiodic ranges irrespective of the noise colour. Since chaotic population fluctuations may show blue spectra in the deterministic case, this implies that blue deterministic chaos may become red under any colour of the noise.