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Convection in the North Atlantic Ocean is a key component of the global overturning circulation (MOC) as it produces dense water at high latitudes. Recent work has highlighted the dominant role of the Irminger and Iceland basins in the production of the North Atlantic deep waters. Dense water formation in these basins is mainly explained by buoyancy forcing that transforms surface waters to the deep waters of the MOC lower limb. Air-sea fluxes and the surface density field are both key determinants of the buoyancy-driven transformation. To better understand the connection between atmospheric forcing and the Atlantic overturning circulation, we analyze the contributions of the air-sea fluxes and of the density structure to the transformation of surface water over the eastern subpolar gyre. More precisely, we consider the densification of subpolar mode water (SPMW) in the Iceland Basin that ‘pre-conditions’ the dense water formation downstream. Analyses using 40 years of observations (1980–2019) reveal that variability in transformation is only weakly sensitive to changes in the heat and freshwater fluxes. Instead, changes in SPMW transformation are largely driven by the variance in the surface density structure, as expressed by the outcropping area for those isopycnals that define SPMW.This large influence of the surface density on the SPMW transformation partly explains the unusually large SPMW transformation in winter 2014–15 over the Iceland Basin.

The Southern Ocean (SO) is a crucial region for the global ocean uptake of heat and carbon. There are large uncertainties in the observations of fluxes of heat and carbon between the atmosphere and the ocean mixed layer, which lead to large uncertainties in the amount entering into the global overturning circulation. In order to better understand where and when fluxes of heat and momentum have the largest impact on near‐surface heat content, we use an adjoint model to calculate the linear sensitivities of heat content in SO mode water formation regions to surface fluxes. We find that the heat content of these regions is, in all three basins, most sensitive to same‐winter, local heat fluxes, and to local and remote wind one to eight years (the maximum lead‐time of our simulations) previously. This is supported by sensitivities to potential temperature changes, which reveal the sources of the mode water formation regions as well as dynamic links with boundary current regions and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. We use the adjoint sensitivity fields to design a set of targeted perturbation experiments, allowing us to examine the linear and non‐linear responses of the heat content to changes in surface forcing. In these targeted experiments, the heat content is sensitive to both temperature changes and mixed layer volume changes in roughly equal magnitude.

We investigate tropical cyclone (TC) activity and intensity within a 100km radius of Bermuda between 1955 and 2019. The results show a more easterly genesis over time and significant increasing trends in tropical cyclone intensity (maximum wind speed (Vmax)) with a decadal Vmax median value increase of 30kts from 33 to 63kts (r=0.94, p=0.02), together with significant increasing August, September, October (ASO) sea surface temperature (SST) of 1.1°C (0.17°C per decade) r= 0.4 (p<0.01) and increasing average ocean temperature between 0.5–0.7°C (0.08-0.1°C per decade) r=0.3(p<0.01) in the depth range 0-300m. The strongest correlation is found between TC intensity and ocean temperature averaged through the top 50m ocean layer (T50m ) r=0.37 (p<0.01). We show how tropical cyclone potential intensity estimates are closer to actual intensity by using T50m as opposed to SST using the Bermuda Atlantic Timeseries Hydrostation S dataset. We modify the widely used sea surface temperature potential intensity index by using T50m to provide a closer estimate of the observed minimum sea level pressure (MSLP), and associated Vmax than by using SST, creating a T50m potential intensity (T50m_PI) index. The average MSLP difference is reduced by 12mb and proportional (r=0.74, p<0.01) to the SST/(T50m ) temperature difference. We also suggest the index could be used over a wider area of the subtropical/tropical Atlantic where there is a shallow mixed layer depth.

Understanding the points in a species breeding cycle when they are most vulnerable to environmental fluctuations is key to understanding interannual demography and guiding effective conservation and management. Seabirds represent one of the most threatened groups of birds in the world, and climate change and severe weather is a prominent and increasing threat to this group. We used a multi-state capture-recapture model to examine how the demographic rates of a long-lived trans-oceanic migrant seabird, the Manx shearwater Puffinus puffinus, are influenced by environmental conditions experienced at different stages of the annual breeding cycle and whether these relationships vary with an individual’s breeding state in the previous year (i.e., successful breeder, failed breeder and non-breeder). Our results imply that populations of Manx shearwaters are comprised of individuals with different demographic profiles, whereby more successful reproduction is associated with higher rates of survival and breeding propensity. However, we found that all birds experienced the same negative relationship between rates of survival and wind force during the breeding season, indicating a cost of reproduction (or central place constraint for non-breeders) during years with severe weather conditions. We also found that environmental effects differentially influence the breeding propensity of individuals in different breeding states. This suggests individual spatio-temporal variation in habitat use during the annual cycle, such that climate change could alter the frequency that individuals with different demographic profiles breed thereby driving a complex and less predictable population response. More broadly, our study highlights the importance of considering individual-level factors when examining population demography and predicting how species may respond to climate change.

Wintertime convection in the North Atlantic Ocean is a key component of the global climate as it produces dense waters at high latitudes that flow equatorward as part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Recent work has highlighted the dominant role of the Irminger and Iceland basins in the production of North Atlantic Deep Water. Dense water formation in these basins is mainly explained by buoyancy forcing that transforms surface waters to the deep waters of the AMOC lower limb. Air–sea fluxes and the ocean surface density field are both key determinants of the buoyancy-driven transformation. We analyze these contributions to the transformation in order to better understand the connection between atmospheric forcing and the densification of surface water. More precisely, we study the impact of air–sea fluxes and the ocean surface density field on the transformation of subpolar mode water (SPMW) in the Iceland Basin, a water mass that “pre-conditions” dense water formation downstream. Analyses using 40 years of observations (1980–2019) reveal that the variance in SPMW transformation is mainly influenced by the variance in density at the ocean surface. This surface density is set by a combination of advection, wind-driven upwelling and surface fluxes. Our study shows that the latter explains ∼ 30 % of the variance in outcrop area as expressed by the surface area between the outcropped SPMW isopycnals. The key role of the surface density in SPMW transformation partly explains the unusually large SPMW transformation in winter 2014–2015 over the Iceland Basin.

Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) is an increasingly used Essential Ocean and Climate Variable. The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), Aquarius, and Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite missions all provide SSS measurements, with very different instrumental features leading to specific measurement characteristics. The Climate Change Initiative Salinity project (CCI + SSS) aims to produce a SSS Climate Data Record (CDR) that addresses well-established user needs based on those satellite measurements. To generate a homogeneous CDR, instrumental differences are carefully adjusted based on in-depth analysis of the measurements themselves, together with some limited use of independent reference data. An optimal interpolation in the time domain without temporal relaxation to reference data or spatial smoothing is applied. This allows preserving the original datasets variability. SSS CCI fields are well suited for monitoring weekly to interannual signals, at spatial scales ranging from 50 km to the basin scale. They display large year-to-year seasonal variations over the 2010–2019 decade, sometimes by more than ±0.4 over large regions. The robust standard deviation of the monthly CCI SSS minus in situ Argo salinities is 0.15 globally, while it is at least 0.20 with individual satellite SSS fields. r2 is 0.97, similar or better than with original datasets. The correlation with independent ship thermosalinographs SSS further highlights the CCI data set excellent performance, especially near land areas. During the SMOS-Aquarius period, when the representativity uncertainties are the largest, r2 is 0.84 with CCI while it is 0.48 with the Aquarius original data set. SSS CCI data are freely available and will be updated and extended as more satellite data become available

The 2013–2014 winter averaged sea surface temperature (SST) was anomalously cool in the mid-North Atlantic region. This season was also unusually stormy, with extratropical cyclones passing over the mid-North Atlantic every 3 d. However, the processes by which cyclones contribute towards seasonal SST anomalies are not fully quantified. In this paper a cyclone identification and tracking method is combined with European Centre for MediumRange Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmosphere and ocean reanalysis fields to calculate cyclone-relative net surface heat flux anomalies and resulting SST changes. Anomalously large negative heat flux is located behind the cyclones’ cold front, resulting in anomalous cooling up to 0.2 K d−1 when the cyclones are at maximum intensity. This extratropicalcyclone-induced “cold wake” extends along the cyclones’ cold front but is small compared to climatological variability in the SSTs. To investigate the potential cumulative effect of the passage of multiple cyclone-induced SST cooling in the same location, we calculate Earth-relative net surface heat flux anomalies and resulting SST changes for the 2013– 2014 winter period. Anomalously large winter averaged negative heat flux occurs in a zonally orientated band extending across the North Atlantic between 40 and 60◦ N. The 2013– 2014 winter SST cooling anomaly associated with air–sea interactions (ASIs; anomalous heat flux, mixed layer depth and entrainment at the base of the ocean mixed layer) is estimated to be −0.67 K in the mid-North Atlantic (68 % of the total cooling anomaly). The role of cyclones is estimated using a cyclone-masking technique which encompasses each cyclone centre and its cold wake. The environmental flow anomaly in 2013–2014 sets the overall tripole pattern of heat flux anomalies over the North Atlantic. However, the presence of cyclones doubles the magnitude of the negative heat flux anomaly in the mid-North Atlantic. Similarly, the environmental flow anomaly determine

The ocean plays a dominant role in the global water cycle. It is the center of action for global evaporation and precipitation and supplies the moisture that falls as continental precipitation. It also acts to some extent as nature's rain gauge, as it tells us about the long‐term changes in the global water cycle through monitoring of the changes in ocean surface salinity. As climate warms, the global water cycle is expected to intensify as a result of the strong nonlinear dependence of water vapor pressure (moisture‐holding capacity) on temperature. Such change is of great concern, as it has profound socioeconomic impacts throughout the globe. Despite the evidence of an intensified global water cycle, two important questions remain: What is the pattern of the warming‐induced intensification of the water cycle? and What is the rate of intensification? Our article provides a synthesis review of recent progress in diagnosing and understanding the changes in both the global water cycle and ocean salinity in recent decades. Targeted numerical ocean model experiments are also reviewed to provide insights into the response of salinity to the changes in evaporation‐minus‐precipitation flux, meltwater runoff, and ocean warming.

Blue-Action Work Package 2 (WP2) focuses on lower latitude drivers of Arctic change, with a focus on the influence of the Atlantic Ocean and atmosphere on the Arctic. In particular, warm water travels from the Atlantic, across the Greenland-Scotland ridge, through the Norwegian Sea towards the Arctic. A large proportion of the heat transported northwards by the ocean is released to the atmosphere and carried eastward towards Europe by the prevailing westerly winds. This is an important contribution to northwestern Europe's mild climate. The remaining heat travels north into the Arctic. Variations in the amount of heat transported into the Arctic will influence the long term climate of the Northern Hemisphere. Here we assess how well the state of the art coupled climate models estimate this northwards transport of heat in the ocean, and how the atmospheric heat transport varies with changes in the ocean heat transport. We seek to improve the ocean monitoring systems that are in place by introducing measurements from ocean gliders, Argo floats and satellites. These state of the art computer simulations are evaluated by comparison with key trans-Atlantic observations. In addition to the coupled models ‘ocean-only’ evaluations are made. In general the coupled model simulations have too much heat going into the Arctic region and the transports have too much variability. The models generally reproduce the variability of the Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation (AMOC) well. All models in this study have a too strong southwards transport of freshwater at 26°N in the North Atlantic, but the divergence between 26°N and Bering Straits is generally reproduced really well in all the models. Altimetry from satellites have been used to reconstruct the ocean circulation 26°N in the Atlantic, over the Greenland Scotland Ridge and alongside ship based observations along the GO-SHIP OVIDE Section. Although it is still a challenge to estimate the ocean circulation at 26°N without usin

The Southern Ocean features regionally varying ventilation pathways that transport heat and carbon from the surface ocean to the interior thermocline on timescales of decades to centuries, but the factors that control the distribution of heat along these pathways are not well understood. In this study, we use a global ocean state estimate (ECCOv4) to (1) define the recently ventilated interior Pacific (RVP) using numerical passive tracer experiments over a 10‐year period and (2) use an adjoint approach to calculate the sensitivities of the RVP heat content (RVPh) to changes in net heat flux and wind stress. We find that RVPh is most sensitive to local heat flux and wind stress anomalies north of the sea surface height contours that delineate the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, with especially high sensitivities over the South Pacific Gyre. Surprisingly, RVPh is not especially sensitive to changes at higher latitudes. We perform a set of step response experiments over the South Pacific Gyre, the subduction region, and the high‐latitude Southern Ocean. In consistency with the adjoint sensitivity fields, RVPh is most sensitive to wind stress curl over the subtropical gyre, which alter isopycnal heave, and it is only weakly sensitive to changes at higher latitudes. Our results suggest that despite the localized nature of mode water subduction hot spots, changes in basin‐scale pressure gradients are an important controlling factor on RVPh. Because basin‐scale wind stress is expected to change in the coming decades to centuries, our results may have implications for climate, via the atmosphere/ocean partitioning of heat.