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Uncertainty visualizations often emphasize point estimates to support magnitude estimates or decisions through visual comparison. However, when design choices emphasize means, users may overlook uncertainty information and misinterpret visual distance as a proxy for effect size. We present findings from a mixed design experiment on Mechanical Turk which tests eight uncertainty visualization designs: 95% containment intervals, hypothetical outcome plots, densities, and quantile dotplots, each with and without means added. We find that adding means to uncertainty visualizations has small biasing effects on both magnitude estimation and decision-making, consistent with discounting uncertainty. We also see that visualization designs that support the least biased effect size estimation do not support the best decision-making, suggesting that a chart user's sense of effect size may not necessarily be identical when they use the same information for different tasks. In a qualitative analysis of users' strategy descriptions, we find that many users switch strategies and do not employ an optimal strategy when one exists. Uncertainty visualizations which are optimally designed in theory may not be the most effective in practice because of the ways that users satisfice with heuristics, suggesting opportunities to better understand visualization effectiveness by modeling sets of potential strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conveying a narrative with visualizations often requires choosing an order in which to present visualizations. While evidence exists that narrative sequencing in traditional stories can affect comprehension and memory, little is known about how sequencing choices affect narrative visualization. We consider the forms and reactions to sequencing in narrative visualization presentations to provide a deeper understanding with a focus on linear, 'slideshow-style' presentations. We conduct a qualitative analysis of 42 professional narrative visualizations to gain empirical knowledge on the forms that structure and sequence take. Based on the results of this study we propose a graph-driven approach for automatically identifying effective sequences in a set of visualizations to be presented linearly. Our approach identifies possible transitions in a visualization set and prioritizes local (visualization-to-visualization) transitions based on an objective function that minimizes the cost of transitions from the audience perspective. We conduct two studies to validate this function. We also expand the approach with additional knowledge of user preferences for different types of local transitions and the effects of global sequencing strategies on memory, preference, and comprehension. Our results include a relative ranking of types of visualization transitions by the audience perspective and support for memory and subjective rating benefits of visualization sequences that use parallelism as a structural device. We discuss how these insights can guide the design of narrative visualization and systems that support optimization of visualization sequence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Narrative visualizations combine conventions of communicative and exploratory information visualization to convey an intended story. We demonstrate visualization rhetoric as an analytical framework for understanding how design techniques that prioritize particular interpretations in visualizations that "tell a story" can significantly affect end-user interpretation. We draw a parallel between narrative visualization interpretation and evidence from framing studies in political messaging, decision-making, and literary studies. Devices for understanding the rhetorical nature of narrative information visualizations are presented, informed by the rigorous application of concepts from critical theory, semiotics, journalism, and political theory. We draw attention to how design tactics represent additions or omissions of information at various levels−the data, visual representation, textual annotations, and interactivity−and how visualizations denote and connote phenomena with reference to unstated viewing conventions and codes. Classes of rhetorical techniques identified via a systematic analysis of recent narrative visualizations are presented, and characterized according to their rhetorical contribution to the visualization. We describe how designers and researchers can benefit from the potentially positive aspects of visualization rhetoric in designing engaging, layered narrative visualizations and how our framework can shed light on how a visualization design prioritizes specific interpretations. We identify areas where future inquiry into visualization rhetoric can improve understanding of visualization interpretation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many well-cited theories for visualization design state that a visual representation should be optimized for quick and immediate interpretation by a user. Distracting elements like decorative "chartjunk" or extraneous information are avoided so as not to slow comprehension. Yet several recent studies in visualization research provide evidence that non-efficient visual elements may benefit comprehension and recall on the part of users. Similarly, findings from studies related to learning from visual displays in various subfields of psychology suggest that introducing cognitive difficulties to visualization interaction can improve a user's understanding of important information. In this paper, we synthesize empirical results from cross-disciplinary research on visual information representations, providing a counterpoint to efficiency-based design theory with guidelines that describe how visual difficulties can be introduced to benefit comprehension and recall. We identify conditions under which the application of visual difficulties is appropriate based on underlying factors in visualization interaction like active processing and engagement. We characterize effective graph design as a trade-off between efficiency and learning difficulties in order to provide Information Visualization (InfoVis) researchers and practitioners with a framework for organizing explorations of graphs for which comprehension and recall are crucial. We identify implications of this view for the design and evaluation of information visualizations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Visualizations play a critical role in validating and improving statistical models. However, the design space of model check visualizations is not well understood, making it difficult for authors to explore and specify effective graphical model checks. VMC defines a model check visualization using four components: (1) samples of distributions of checkable quantities generated from the model, including predictive distributions for new data and distributions of model parameters; (2) transformations on observed data to facilitate comparison; (3) visual representations of distributions; and (4) layouts to facilitate comparing model samples and observed data. We contribute an implementation of VMC as an R package. We validate VMC by reproducing a set of canonical model check examples, and show how using VMC to generate model checks reduces the edit distance between visualizations relative to existing visualization toolkits. The findings of an interview study with three expert modelers who used VMC highlight challenges and opportunities for encouraging exploration of correct, effective model check visualizations.

Integrative experimentation will improve on the status quo in empirical behavioral science. However, the results integrative experiments produce will remain conditional on the various assumptions used to produce them. Without a theory of interpretability, it remains unclear how viable it is to address the crud factor without sacrificing explainability.

Understanding and accounting for uncertainty is critical to effectively reasoning about visualized data. However, evaluating the impact of an uncertainty visualization is complex due to the difficulties that people have interpreting uncertainty and the challenge of defining correct behavior with uncertainty information. Currently, evaluators of uncertainty visualization must rely on general purpose visualization evaluation frameworks which can be ill-equipped to provide guidance with the unique difficulties of assessing judgments under uncertainty. To help evaluators navigate these complexities, we present a taxonomy for characterizing decisions made in designing an evaluation of an uncertainty visualization. Our taxonomy differentiates six levels of decisions that comprise an uncertainty visualization evaluation: the behavioral targets of the study, expected effects from an uncertainty visualization, evaluation goals, measures, elicitation techniques, and analysis approaches. Applying our taxonomy to 86 user studies of uncertainty visualizations, we find that existing evaluation practice, particularly in visualization research, focuses on Performance and Satisfaction-based measures that assume more predictable and statistically-driven judgment behavior than is suggested by research on human judgment and decision making. We reflect on common themes in evaluation practice concerning the interpretation and semantics of uncertainty, the use of confidence reporting, and a bias toward evaluating performance as accuracy rather than decision quality. We conclude with a concrete set of recommendations for evaluators designed to reduce the mismatch between the conceptualization of uncertainty in visualization versus other fields.

Animated representations of outcomes drawn from distributions (hypothetical outcome plots, or HOPs) are used in the media and other public venues to communicate uncertainty. HOPs greatly improve multivariate probability estimation over conventional static uncertainty visualizations and leverage the ability of the visual system to quickly, accurately, and automatically process the summary statistical properties of ensembles. However, it is unclear how well HOPs support applied tasks resembling real world judgments posed in uncertainty communication. We identify and motivate an appropriate task to investigate realistic judgments of uncertainty in the public domain through a qualitative analysis of uncertainty visualizations in the news. We contribute two crowdsourced experiments comparing the effectiveness of HOPs, error bars, and line ensembles for supporting perceptual decision-making from visualized uncertainty. Participants infer which of two possible underlying trends is more likely to have produced a sample of time series data by referencing uncertainty visualizations which depict the two trends with variability due to sampling error. By modeling each participant's accuracy as a function of the level of evidence presented over many repeated judgments, we find that observers are able to correctly infer the underlying trend in samples conveying a lower level of evidence when using HOPs rather than static aggregate uncertainty visualizations as a decision aid. Modeling approaches like ours contribute theoretically grounded and richly descriptive accounts of user perceptions to visualization evaluation.