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Fast and accurate hourly forecasts of wind speed and power are crucial in quantifying and planning the energy budget in the electric grid. Modeling wind at a high resolution brings forth considerable challenges given its turbulent and highly nonlinear dynamics. In developing countries, where wind farms over a large domain are currently under construction or consideration, this is even more challenging given the necessity of modeling wind over space as well. In this work, we propose a machine learning approach to model the nonlinear hourly wind dynamics in Saudi Arabia with a domain-specific choice of knots to reduce the spatial dimensionality. Our results show that for locations highlighted as wind abundant by a previous work, our approach results in an 11% improvement in the two-hour-ahead forecasted power against operational standards in the wind energy sector, yielding a saving of nearly one million US dollars over a year under current market prices in Saudi Arabia.

Efficiently finding an occluded object with lateral access arises in many contexts such as warehouses, retail, healthcare, shipping, and homes. We introduce LAX-RAY (Lateral Access maXimal Reduction of occupancY support Area), a system to automate the mechanical search for occluded objects on shelves. For such lateral access environments, LAX-RAY couples a perception pipeline predicting a target object occupancy support distribution with a mechanical search policy that sequentially selects occluding objects to push to the side to reveal the target as efficiently as possible. Within the context of extruded polygonal objects and a stationary target with a known aspect ratio, we explore three lateral access search policies: Distribution Area Reduction (DAR), Distribution Entropy Reduction (DER), and Distribution Entropy Reduction over Multiple Time Steps (DER-MT) utilizing the support distribution and prior information. We evaluate these policies using the First-Order Shelf Simulator (FOSS) in which we simulate 800 random shelf environments of varying difficulty, and in a physical shelf environment with a Fetch robot and an embedded PrimeSense RGBD Camera. Average simulation results of 87.3% success rate demonstrate better performance of DER-MT with 2 prediction steps. When deployed on the robot, results show a success rate of at least 80% for all policies, suggesting that LAX-RAY can efficiently reveal the target object in reality. Both results show significantly better performance of the three proposed policies compared to a baseline policy with uniform probability distribution assumption in non-trivial cases, showing the importance of distribution prediction. Code, videos, and supplementary material can be found at https://sites.google.com/berkeley.edu/lax-ray., Comment: Huang Huang and Marcus Dominguez-Kuhne contributed equally

We explore how high-speed robot arm motions can dynamically manipulate cables to vault over obstacles, knock objects from pedestals, and weave between obstacles. In this paper, we propose a self-supervised learning framework that enables a UR5 robot to perform these three tasks. The framework finds a 3D apex point for the robot arm, which, together with a task-specific trajectory function, defines an arcing motion that dynamically manipulates the cable to perform tasks with varying obstacle and target locations. The trajectory function computes minimum-jerk motions that are constrained to remain within joint limits and to travel through the 3D apex point by repeatedly solving quadratic programs to find the shortest and fastest feasible motion. We experiment with 5 physical cables with different thickness and mass and compare performance against two baselines in which a human chooses the apex point. Results suggest that a baseline with a fixed apex across the three tasks achieves respective success rates of 51.7%, 36.7%, and 15.0%, and a baseline with human-specified, task-specific apex points achieves 66.7%, 56.7%, and 15.0% success rate respectively, while the robot using the learned apex point can achieve success rates of 81.7% in vaulting, 65.0% in knocking, and 60.0% in weaving. Code, data, and supplementary materials are available at https: //sites.google.com/berkeley.edu/dynrope/home.

Object 6D pose estimation is a fundamental task in many applications. Conventional methods solve the task by detecting and matching the keypoints, then estimating the pose. Recent efforts bringing deep learning into the problem mainly overcome the vulnerability of conventional methods to environmental variation due to the hand-crafted feature design. However, these methods cannot achieve end-to-end learning and good interpretability at the same time. In this paper, we propose REDE, a novel end-to-end object pose estimator using RGB-D data, which utilizes network for keypoint regression, and a differentiable geometric pose estimator for pose error back-propagation. Besides, to achieve better robustness when outlier keypoint prediction occurs, we further propose a differentiable outliers elimination method that regresses the candidate result and the confidence simultaneously. Via confidence weighted aggregation of multiple candidates, we can reduce the effect from the outliers in the final estimation. Finally, following the conventional method, we apply a learnable refinement process to further improve the estimation. The experimental results on three benchmark datasets show that REDE slightly outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches and is more robust to object occlusion.

The natural impedance, or dynamic relationship between force and motion, of a human operator can determine the stability of exoskeletons that use interaction-torque feedback to amplify human strength. While human impedance is typically modelled as a linear system, our experiments on a single-joint exoskeleton testbed involving 10 human subjects show evidence of nonlinear behavior: a low-frequency asymptotic phase for the dynamic stiffness of the human that is different than the expected zero, and an unexpectedly consistent damping ratio as the stiffness and inertia vary. To explain these observations, this paper considers a new frequency-domain model of the human joint dynamics featuring complex value stiffness comprising a real stiffness term and a hysteretic damping term. Using a statistical F-test we show that the hysteretic damping term is not only significant but is even more significant than the linear damping term. Further analysis reveals a linear trend linking hysteretic damping and the real part of the stiffness, which allows us to simplify the complex stiffness model down to a 1-parameter system. Then, we introduce and demonstrate a customizable fractional-order controller that exploits this hysteretic damping behavior to improve strength amplification bandwidth while maintaining stability, and explore a tuning approach which ensures that this stability property is robust to muscle co-contraction for each individual., Comment: 10 pages, 7 figures, 4 tables. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1903.00704

The prevalence of multivariate space-time data collected from monitoring networks and satellites, or generated from numerical models, has brought much attention to multivariate spatio-temporal statistical models, where the covariance function plays a key role in modeling, inference, and prediction. For multivariate space-time data, understanding the spatio-temporal variability, within and across variables, is essential in employing a realistic covariance model. Meanwhile, the complexity of generic covariances often makes model fitting very challenging, and simplified covariance structures, including symmetry and separability, can reduce the model complexity and facilitate the inference procedure. However, a careful examination of these properties is needed in real applications. In the work presented here, we formally define these properties for multivariate spatio-temporal random fields and use functional data analysis techniques to visualize them, hence providing intuitive interpretations. We then propose a rigorous rank-based testing procedure to conclude whether the simplified properties of covariance are suitable for the underlying multivariate space-time data. The good performance of our method is illustrated through synthetic data, for which we know the true structure. We also investigate the covariance of bivariate wind speed, a key variable in renewable energy, over a coastal and an inland area in Saudi Arabia. The Supplementary Material is available online, including the R code for our developed methods.

Modeling and inferring spatial relationships and predicting missing values of environmental data are some of the main tasks of geospatial statisticians. These routine tasks are accomplished using multivariate geospatial models and the cokriging technique. The latter requires the evaluation of the expensive Gaussian log-likelihood function, which has impeded the adoption of multivariate geospatial models for large multivariate spatial datasets. However, this large-scale cokriging challenge provides a fertile ground for supercomputing implementations for the geospatial statistics community as it is paramount to scale computational capability to match the growth in environmental data coming from the widespread use of different data collection technologies. In this paper, we develop and deploy large-scale multivariate spatial modeling and inference on parallel hardware architectures. To tackle the increasing complexity in matrix operations and the massive concurrency in parallel systems, we leverage low-rank matrix approximation techniques with task-based programming models and schedule the asynchronous computational tasks using a dynamic runtime system. The proposed framework provides both the dense and the approximated computations of the Gaussian log-likelihood function. It demonstrates accuracy robustness and performance scalability on a variety of computer systems. Using both synthetic and real datasets, the low-rank matrix approximation shows better performance compared to exact computation, while preserving the application requirements in both parameter estimation and prediction accuracy. We also propose a novel algorithm to assess the prediction accuracy after the online parameter estimation. The algorithm quantifies prediction performance and provides a benchmark for measuring the efficiency and accuracy of several approximation techniques in multivariate spatial modeling.