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Reliable information on the dynamics of hydrological changes is crucial for the social and economic stabilities and sustaining developments in arid Central Asia. However, the few long‐term hydrological records limit understanding of the relationship between meltwater runoff and climate changes, because the short‐term observations show a paradoxical runoff trend with climate warming across Central Asia. Here, we made a systematic analysis on the 10Be exposure ages of the river terraces developed in the eastern Tarim Basin and reconstructed the hydrological regime changes during the past 170 ka. These data, together with the ages of the river terraces in the water source areas, suggest that the exposure ages of river terraces in the eastern Tarim Basin reflect the depositional time of alluvial sediments. The meltwater runoff displays an inverse relation with the North Hemisphere Summer Insolation and temperature changes on both orbital and millennial time scale, indicating that low temperatures favor high runoff fluxes. The observed correlation between the hydrological regimes and temperature changes suggests that the runoff will decrease and thus climate will become drying with global warming in arid Central Asia. Reliable information on the dynamics of hydrological changes is crucial for the social and economic stabilities and sustaining developments in arid Central Asia. However, the short‐term observations show a paradoxical runoff trend with climate warming across Central Asia. In order to understand the association of hydrological regimes with climate changes in arid Central Asia, particularly the hydrological changes on the context of global warming, this study reconstructs the hydrological changes in the eastern Tarim Basin over the past 170 ka. Our results show that the high runoff occurred during low temperature periods in the past. The inverse correlation between the hydrological regimes and temperatures in this study indicates that the runoff will decrease and climate will become drying with global warming in the future. More conservative water management policies should be taken for the sustaining development and water security in Central Asia. 10Be exposure ages of river terraces in the eastern Tarim Basin reflect the depositional dates of alluvial sedimentsThe runoff in central Asia displays an inverse relation with global temperature changesHigh runoffs and humid climates occurred during cold periods over the past 170 ka, indicating a climate drying with global warming 10Be exposure ages of river terraces in the eastern Tarim Basin reflect the depositional dates of alluvial sediments The runoff in central Asia displays an inverse relation with global temperature changes High runoffs and humid climates occurred during cold periods over the past 170 ka, indicating a climate drying with global warming