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On Medicare's 50th anniversary, we use the Future Elderly Model (FEM) - a microsimulation model of health and economic outcomes for older Americans - to generate a snapshot of changing Medicare demographics and spending between 2010 and 2030. During this period, the baby boomers, who began turning 65 and aging into Medicare in 2011, will drive Medicare demographic changes, swelling the estimated US population aged 65 or older from 39.7 million to 67.0 million. Among the risks for Medicare sustainability, the size of the elderly population in the future likely will have the highest impact on spending but is easiest to forecast. Population health and the proportion of the future elderly with disabilities are more uncertain, though tools such as the FEM can provide reasonable forecasts to guide policymakers. Finally, medical technology breakthroughs and their effect on longevity are most uncertain and perhaps riskiest. Policymakers will need to keep these risks in mind if Medicare is to be sustained for another 50 years. Policymakers may also want to monitor the equity of Medicare financing amid signs that the program's progressivity is declining, resulting in higher-income people benefiting relatively more from Medicare than lower-income people.

Background and Objectives: Recent evidence indicates that fistula maturation and patency may be compromised in the elderly dialysis population compared with younger patients. The objective of this study was to characterize the short-term outcomes of arteriovenous fistulas and arteriovenous grafts for hemodialysis access in the Medicare population., Design, Setting, Participants, & Measurements: This was a retrospective cohort study performed using Medicare Part A and B claims data from 2006 through 2011. The study population included 16,464 dialysis-dependent patients age ≥66 years undergoing arteriovenous fistula and arteriovenous graft creation. The primary outcome measure was incidence of repeat fistula/graft creation and tunneled catheter placements in the 12 months after arteriovenous fistula and graft creation., Results: In the 12 months postindex fistula/graft, the mortality in the fistula group was 28.2% versus 29.9% in the graft group (P=0.03). A repeat fistula/graft creation was required in 26.9% of patients in the fistula group and 16.7% in the graft group (P<0.001). There was no significant difference in the proportion of patients who required a tunneled hemodialysis catheter in the 12 months after an index fistula creation (fistula 28.4% versus graft 27.3%, P=0.19). In the index fistula group, 44.4% of patients required a repeat fistula/graft creation and/or a tunneled catheter, compared with 33.7% in the graft group (P<0.001). At 365 days after the index fistula/graft, the repeat fistula/graft/catheter-free survival was 39.7% in the fistula group versus 46.0% in the graft group (P<0.001). Index fistula was associated with a higher risk of loss of repeat fistula/graft/catheter-free survival with an odds ratio of 1.19 (95% confidence interval, 1.13 to 1.24)., Conclusions: Fistulas were associated with a somewhat lower mortality than grafts in the first 12 months after creation. However, the incidence of repeat fistula/graft creation and tunneled catheter placement is substantially higher in the first 12 months after fistula creation compared with grafts. One-year repeat fistula/graft/catheter-free survival is lower after fistula creation than grafts., (Copyright © 2015 by the American Society of Nephrology.)

Treatment of hepatitis C virus, the most common chronic viral infection in the United States, has historically suffered from challenges including serious side effects, low efficacy, and ongoing transmission and reinfection. Recent innovations have produced breakthrough therapies that are effective in more than 90 percent of patients. These treatments could dramatically reduce the virus's prevalence but are costly. To quantify the benefit of these treatments to society, including the value of reduced transmission, we estimated the effects of several hepatitis C treatment strategies on cost and population health. Treating patients at all disease stages could generate $610-$1,221 billion in additional quality-adjusted life-years, plus an additional $139 billion in saved medical expenditures over fifty years, and minimize the disease burden, but up-front treatment costs would exceed $150 billion. An intermediate scenario--treating 5 percent of the infected population annually, regardless of patients' disease stages--would also return substantial benefits and would be much more affordable under current financing schemes., (Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.)

Atrial fibrillation (AF) may be clinically silent and therefore undiagnosed. To date, no estimates of the direct medical cost of undiagnosed AF exist. We estimated the United States (US) incremental cost burden of undiagnosed nonvalvular AF nationally using administrative claims data. To calculate the incremental costs of undiagnosed AF, we compared annual medical costs (in 2014 US Dollars) for patients with AF compared to propensity-matched controls and multiplied this by estimates of undiagnosed AF prevalence derived from the same data sources. The study population included US residents aged ≥18 years with 24 months of continuous enrollment drawn from 2 large administrative claims databases. Mean per capita medical spending for patients with AF aged from 18 to 64 year was $38,861 (95% confidence interval [CI] $35,781 to $41,950) compared to $28,506 (95% CI $28,409 to $28,603) for similar patients without AF (incremental cost difference $10,355, p <0.001); total spending for patients aged ≥65 years with AF was $25,322 (95% CI $25,049 to $25,595) compared to $21,706 (95% CI $21,563 to $21,849) for similar patients without AF (incremental cost difference $3,616, p <0.001). Using estimates of the US prevalence of undiagnosed AF (596,000) drawn from the same data, we estimated that the US incremental cost burden of undiagnosed nonvalvular AF is $3.1 billion (95% CI $2.7 to $3.7 billion). In conclusion, the direct medical costs for patients with undiagnosed AF are greater than patients with similar observable characteristics without AF and strategies to identify and treat patients with undiagnosed AF could lead to sizable reductions in stroke sequelae and associated costs., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Importance: The US Clean Air Act prohibits use of nonessential ozone-depleting substances. In 2005, the US Food and Drug Administration announced the ban of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) albuterol inhalers by December 31, 2008. The policy resulted in the controversial replacement of generic CFC inhalers by more expensive, branded hydrofluoroalkane inhalers. The policy's impact on out-of-pocket costs and utilization of albuterol is unknown., Objective: To study the impact of the US Food and Drug Administration's CFC ban on out-of-pocket costs and utilization of albuterol inhalers., Design, Setting, and Participants: Using private insurance data from January 1, 2004, to December 31, 2010, we investigated the effect of the CFC ban on out-of-pocket costs and utilization of albuterol inhalers among individuals with asthma (109,428 adults; 37,281 children), as well as asthma-related hospitalizations, emergency department visits, and outpatient visits. We estimated multivariable models adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities, and mean out-of-pocket costs of albuterol inhalers in an individual's drug plan. We analyzed whether effects varied between adults vs children and those with persistent vs nonpersistent asthma., Main Outcomes and Measures: Pharmacy claims for albuterol inhalers, as well as asthma-related hospitalizations, emergency department visits, and outpatient visits., Results: The mean out-of-pocket albuterol cost rose from $13.60 (95% CI, $13.40-$13.70) per prescription in 2004 to $25.00 (95% CI, $24.80-$25.20) immediately after the 2008 ban. By the end of 2010, costs had lowered to $21.00 (95% CI, $20.80-$21.20) per prescription. Overall albuterol inhaler use steadily declined from 2004 to 2010. Steep declines in use of generic CFC inhalers occurred after the fourth quarter of 2006 and were almost fully offset by increases in use of hydrofluoroalkane inhalers. In multivariable analyses, a $10 increase in out-of-pocket albuterol prescription costs was estimated to lower utilization by 0.92 percentage points (95% CI, -1.39 to -0.44; P < .001) for adults and 0.54 percentage points (95% CI, -0.84 to -0.24; P = .001) for children, with no difference between adults vs children and patients with persistent vs nonpersistent asthma and with no impact on asthma-related hospitalizations, emergency department visits, and outpatient visits., Conclusions and Relevance: The Federal ban of CFC inhalers led to large relative increases in out-of-pocket albuterol costs among privately insured individuals with asthma and modest declines in utilization. The policy's impact on individuals without insurance, who faced greater cost increases, is unknown.

Context: Obesity impacts both individual health and, given its high prevalence, total health care spending. However, as medical technology evolves, health outcomes for a number of obesity-related illnesses improve. This article examines whether medical innovation can mitigate the adverse health and spending associated with obesity, using statins as a case study. Because of the relationship between obesity and hypercholesterolaemia, statins play an important role in the medical management of obese individuals and the prevention of costly obesity-related sequelae., Methods: Using well-recognized estimates of the health impact of statins and the Future Elderly Model (FEM)-an established dynamic microsimulation model of the health of Americans aged over 50 years-we estimate the changes in life expectancy, functional status and health care costs of obesity due to the introduction and widespread use of statins., Results: Life expectancy gains of statins are estimated to be 5-6 % greater for obese individuals than for healthy-weight individuals, but most of these additional gains are associated with some level of disability. Considering both medical spending and the value of quality-adjusted life-years, statins do not significantly alter the costs of class 1 and 2 obesity (body mass index [BMI] ≥30 and ≥35 kg/m(2), respectively) and they increase the costs of class 3 obesity (BMI ≥40 kg/m(2)) by 1.2 %., Conclusions: Although statins are very effective medications for lowering the risk of obesity-associated illnesses, they do not significantly reduce the costs of obesity.

Objectives: Medication adherence is increasingly being considered as a measure for performance-based reimbursement contracts in healthcare systems. However, the association between health outcomes and adherence at the plan level is unknown., Study Design: Retrospective analysis of medical and pharmacy claims from a large private sector claims database from 2000 to 2009., Methods: We compared plan-level measures of medication adherence and health outcomes for patients with diabetes and congestive heart failure (CHF). Plan performance was based on average rates of disease complications. Medication adherence was calculated as the percent of patients having 80% of days covered for medications treating diabetes or CHF. Both adherence and outcomes were adjusted for patient differences using multivariate regression. Plans were stratified into low, moderate, and high adherence, based on adherence in the bottom quartile, middle 2 quartiles, and top quartile, respectively., Results: Average adherence varied significantly across plans. Plans with low adherence to diabetes medications had adjusted rates of uncontrolled diabetes admissions of 13.2 per 1000 patients, compared with 11.2 in moderate adherence plans and 8.3 in high adherence plans (P < .001). The adjusted rate of CHF-related hospitalization was 15.3% in low adherence plans, compared with 12.4% in moderate adherence plans and 12.2% in high adherence plans (P < .001). These patterns were consistent across different types of complications for both diabetes and CHF., Conclusions: Private health plans vary considerably in average adherence to medications treating chronic diseases. Plans with higher average adherence had lower rates of disease complications, suggesting that medication adherence measures are potentially useful tools for improving the performance of health plans.

Objective: To explore the relationship between commercial health care prices and Medicare spending/utilization across U.S. regions., Data Sources: Claims from large employers and Medicare Parts A/B/D over 2007-2009., Study Design: We compared prices paid by commercial health plans to Medicare spending and utilization, adjusted for beneficiary health and the cost of care, across 301 hospital referral regions., Principal Findings: A 10 percent lower commercial price (around the average level) is associated with 3.0 percent higher Medicare spending per member per year, and 4.3 percent more specialist visits (p < .01)., Conclusions: Commercial health care prices are negatively associated with Medicare spending across regions. Providers may respond to low commercial prices by shifting service volume into Medicare. Further investigation is needed to establish causality., (© Health Research and Educational Trust.)

Importance: Surrogate end points may be used as proxy for more robust clinical end points. One prominent example is the use of progression-free survival (PFS) as a surrogate for overall survival (OS) in trials for oncologic treatments. Decisions based on surrogate end points may expedite regulatory approval but may not accurately reflect drug efficacy. Payers and clinicians must balance the potential benefits of earlier treatment access based on surrogate end points against the risks of clinical uncertainty., Objective: To present a framework for evaluating the expected net benefit or cost of providing early access to new treatments on the basis of evidence of PFS benefits before OS results are available, using non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) as an example., Design, Setting, and Participants: A probabilistic decision model was used to estimate expected incremental social value of the decision to grant access to a new treatment on the basis of PFS evidence. The model analyzed a hypothetical population of patients with NSCLC who could be treated during the period between PFS and OS evidence publication. Estimates for delay in publication of OS evidence following publication of PFS evidence, expected OS benefit given PFS benefit, incremental cost of new treatment, and other parameters were drawn from the literature on treatment of NSCLC., Main Outcomes and Measures: Incremental social value of early access for each additional patient per month (in 2014 US dollars)., Results: For "medium-value" model parameters, early reimbursement of drugs with any PFS benefit yields an incremental social cost of more than $170,000 per newly treated patient per month. In contrast, granting early access on the basis of PFS benefit between 1 and 3.5 months produces more than $73,000 in incremental social value. Across the full range of model parameter values, granting access for drugs with PFS benefit between 3 and 3.5 months is robustly beneficial, generating incremental social value ranging from $38,000 to more than $1 million per newly treated patient per month, whereas access for all drugs with any PFS benefit is usually not beneficial., Conclusions and Relevance: The value of providing access to new treatments on the basis of surrogate end points, and PFS in particular, likely varies considerably. Payers and clinicians should carefully consider how to use PFS data in balancing potential benefits against costs in each particular disease.

Aim: This study aims to analyze the impacts of a range of clinical evidence generation scenarios associated with comparative effectiveness research (CER) on pharmaceutical innovation., Materials & Methods: We used the Global Pharmaceutical Policy Model to project the effect of changes in pharmaceutical producer costs, revenues and timings on drug innovation and health for the age 55+ populations in the USA and Europe through year 2060 using three clinical scenarios., Results: Changes in producer incentives from widespread CER evidence generation and use had varied but often large predicted impacts on simulated outcomes in 2060. Effect on the number of new drug introductions ranged from a 81.1% reduction to a 45.5% increase, and the effect on population-level life expectancy ranged from a 15.6% reduction to a 11.4% increase compared to baseline estimates., Conclusion: The uncertainty surrounding the consequences of increased clinical evidence generation and use on innovation calls for a carefully measured approach to CER implementation, balancing near-term benefits to spending and health with long-term implications for innovation.

Importance: Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination rates among US females remain low, in part because of concerns that HPV vaccination may promote unsafe sexual activity by lowering perceived risks of acquiring a sexually transmitted infection (STI)., Objective: To study whether HPV vaccination of females is associated with increases in STI rates., Design, Setting, and Participants: Using a large, longitudinal insurance database of females aged 12 to 18 years insured from January 1, 2005, through December 31, 2010, in the United States, we examined whether HPV vaccination was associated with an increase in incident STIs among females who were vaccinated compared with those who were not. We defined STIs as one or more medical claims for any of the following infections in a given quarter: chlamydia, gonorrhea, herpes, human immunodeficiency virus or AIDS, or syphilis. We used difference-in-difference analysis to compare changes in STI rates among HPV-vaccinated females before and after vaccination (index quarter) to changes among age-matched nonvaccinated females before and after the index quarter. We analyzed whether effects varied according to age and prior contraceptive medication use., Main Outcomes and Measures: Rates of STIs., Results: The rates of STIs in the year before vaccination were higher among HPV-vaccinated females (94 of 21 610, 4.3 per 1000) compared with age-matched nonvaccinated females (522 of 186 501, 2.8 per 1000) (adjusted odds ratio, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.09-1.71; P = .007). The rates of STIs increased for the vaccinated (147 of 21 610, 6.8 per 1000) and nonvaccinated (781 of 186 501, 4.2 per 1000) groups in the year after vaccination (adjusted odds ratio, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.25-1.79; P < .001). The difference-in-difference odds ratio was 1.05 (95% CI, 0.80-1.38; P = .74), implying that HPV vaccination was not associated with an increase in STIs relative to growth among nonvaccinated females. Similar associations held among subgroups aged 12 through 14 years and aged 15 through 18 years and among females with contraceptive use in the index quarter., Conclusions and Relevance: Human papillomavirus vaccination was not associated with increases in STIs in a large cohort of females, suggesting that vaccination is unlikely to promote unsafe sexual activity.

Health care spending and health outcomes vary markedly across countries, but the association between spending and outcomes remains unclear. This inevitably raises questions as to whether continuing growth in spending is justified, especially relative to the rising cost of cancer care. We compared cancer care across sixteen countries over time, examining changes in cancer spending and two measures of cancer mortality (amenable and excess mortality). We found that compared to low-spending health systems, high-spending systems had consistently lower cancer mortality in the period 1995-2007. Similarly, we found that the countries that increased spending the most had a 17 percent decrease in amenable mortality, compared to 8 percent in the countries with the lowest growth in cancer spending. For excess mortality, the corresponding decreases were 13 percent and 9 percent. Additionally, the rate of decrease for the countries with the highest spending growth was faster than the all-country trend. These findings are consistent with the existence of a link between higher cancer spending and lower cancer mortality. However, further work is needed to investigate the mechanisms that underlie this correlation., (Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.)

The need for better value in US health care is widely recognized. Existing evidence suggests that improvement in the productivity of American hospitals-that is, the output that hospitals produce from inputs such as labor and capital-has lagged behind that of other industries. However, previous studies have not adequately addressed quality of care or severity of patient illness. Our study, by contrast, adjusts for trends in the severity of patients' conditions and health outcomes. We studied productivity growth among US hospitals in treating Medicare patients with heart attack, heart failure, and pneumonia during 2002-11. We found that the rates of annual productivity growth were 0.78 percent for heart attack, 0.62 percent for heart failure, and 1.90 percent for pneumonia. However, unadjusted productivity growth appears to have been negative. These findings suggest that productivity growth in US health care could be better than is sometimes believed, and may help alleviate concerns about Medicare payment policy under the Affordable Care Act., (Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.)

Importance: Thousands of physicians attend scientific meetings annually. Although hospital physician staffing and composition may be affected by meetings, patient outcomes and treatment patterns during meeting dates are unknown., Objective: To analyze mortality and treatment differences among patients admitted with acute cardiovascular conditions during dates of national cardiology meetings compared with nonmeeting dates., Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective analysis of 30-day mortality among Medicare beneficiaries hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction (AMI), heart failure, or cardiac arrest from 2002 through 2011 during dates of 2 national cardiology meetings compared with identical nonmeeting days in the 3 weeks before and after conferences (AMI, 8570 hospitalizations during 82 meeting days and 57,471 during 492 nonmeeting days; heart failure, 19,282 during meeting days and 11,4591 during nonmeeting days; cardiac arrest, 1564 during meeting days and 9580 during nonmeeting days). Multivariable analyses were conducted separately for major teaching hospitals and nonteaching hospitals and for low- and high-risk patients. Differences in treatment utilization were assessed., Exposures: Hospitalization during cardiology meeting dates., Main Outcomes and Measures: Thirty-day mortality, procedure rates, charges, length of stay., Results: Patient characteristics were similar between meeting and nonmeeting dates. In teaching hospitals, adjusted 30-day mortality was lower among high-risk patients with heart failure or cardiac arrest admitted during meeting vs nonmeeting dates (heart failure, 17.5% [95% CI, 13.7%-21.2%] vs 24.8% [95% CI, 22.9%-26.6%]; P < .001; cardiac arrest, 59.1% [95% CI, 51.4%-66.8%] vs 69.4% [95% CI, 66.2%-72.6%]; P = .01). Adjusted mortality for high-risk AMI in teaching hospitals was similar between meeting and nonmeeting dates (39.2% [95% CI, 31.8%-46.6%] vs 38.5% [95% CI, 35.0%-42.0%]; P = .86), although adjusted percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) rates were lower during meetings (20.8% vs 28.2%; P = .02). No mortality or utilization differences existed for low-risk patients in teaching hospitals or high- or low-risk patients in nonteaching hospitals. In sensitivity analyses, cardiac mortality was not affected by hospitalization during oncology, gastroenterology, and orthopedics meetings, nor was gastrointestinal hemorrhage or hip fracture mortality affected by hospitalization during cardiology meetings., Conclusions and Relevance: High-risk patients with heart failure and cardiac arrest hospitalized in teaching hospitals had lower 30-day mortality when admitted during dates of national cardiology meetings. High-risk patients with AMI admitted to teaching hospitals during meetings were less likely to receive PCI, without any mortality effect.

Surgeons increasingly use robot-assisted minimally invasive surgery for a variety of medical conditions. For hospitals, the acquisition and maintenance of a robot requires a significant investment, but financial returns are not linked to any improvement in long-term patient outcomes in the current reimbursement environment. Kidney cancer provides a useful case study for evaluating the long-term value that this innovation can provide. Kidney cancer is generally treated through partial or radical nephrectomy, with evidence favoring the former procedure for appropriate patients. We found that robot-assisted surgery increased access to partial nephrectomy and that partial nephrectomy reduced mortality and renal failure. The value of the benefits of robot-assisted minimally invasive surgery to patients, in terms of quality-adjusted life-years gained, outweighed the health care and surgical costs to patients and payers by a ratio of five to one. In addition, we found no evidence that the availability of robot-assisted minimally invasive surgery increased the likelihood that inappropriate patients received partial nephrectomy., (Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.)

Objectives: We assessed whether Medicare Part D reduced disparities in access to medication., Study Design: Secondary data analysis of a 20% sample of Medicare beneficiaries, using Parts A and B medical claims from 2002 to 2008 and Part D drug claims from 2006 to 2008., Methods: We analyzed the medication use of Hispanic, black, and white beneficiaries with diabetes before and after reaching the Part D coverage gap, and compared their use with that of race-specific reference groups not exposed to the loss in coverage. Unadjusted difference-in-difference results were validated with multivariate regression models adjusted for demographics, comorbidities, and zip code-level household income used as a proxy for socioeconomic status., Results: The rate at which Hispanics reduced use of diabetes-related medications in the coverage gap was twice as high as whites, while blacks decreased their use of diabetes-related medications by 33% more than whites. The reduction in medication use was correlated with drug price. Hispanics and blacks were more likely than whites to discontinue a therapy after reaching the coverage gap but more likely to resume once coverage restarted. Hispanics without subsidies and living in low-income areas reduced medication use more than similar blacks and whites in the coverage gap., Conclusions: We found that the Part D coverage gap is particularly disruptive to minorities and those living in low-income areas. The implications of this work suggest that protecting the health of vulnerable groups requires more than premium subsidies. Patient education may be a first step, but more substantive improvements in adherence may require changes in healthcare delivery.

Specialty pharmaceuticals include most injectable and biologic agents used to treat complex conditions such as rheumatoid arthritis, multiple sclerosis, and cancer. We analyzed trends in specialty drug spending among Medicare beneficiaries ages sixty-five and older using 2007-11 pharmacy claims data from a 20 percent sample of Medicare beneficiaries. Annual specialty drug spending per beneficiary who used specialty drugs increased considerably during the study period, from $2,641 to $8,976. However, specialty drugs accounted for only 6.7 percent of total drug spending per beneficiary in 2007 and 9.1 percent in 2011. Moreover, in 2011 cost-sharing reductions under the Affordable Care Act significantly reduced specialty drug users' out-of-pocket burden, which decreased 26 percent from 2010. Oral cancer agents accounted for a significant proportion of the increase in specialty drug spending among the study population. This suggests that the migration of specialty drug coverage from Medicare's Part B medical benefit to the Part D pharmacy benefit because of new treatment options may play an important role in specialty pharmacy trends. This shift is likely to continue as pharmaceutical innovations enable more specialty therapeutics to be self-administered and to be covered under the pharmacy instead of the medical benefit., (Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.)

In this commentary we debunk a number of the most common misconceptions about cancer treatment, such as claims that the war on cancer has been a failure and that treatment costs are unsustainable. In addition, there is good evidence that patients value these treatments more highly than traditional cost-effectiveness analysis would indicate. We argue that coverage policies placing undue burden on patients are socially wasteful and will likely discourage further innovation., (Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.)

Many state Medicaid programs have implemented policies designed to reduce spending on prescription drugs by restricting access to branded products. For patients with major depressive disorder, formulary restrictions could severely limit access to antidepressant therapies and disrupt care. We linked data on patient outcomes and spending from 24 state Medicaid programs to information on formulary restrictions from 2001 to 2008. Outcomes included frequency of MDD-related hospitalizations and ER visits per patient and total healthcare spending. We estimated the effect of the policies on patient outcomes and spending using a difference-and-difference approach. We found that restricting access to antidepressants increased the probability of an MDD-related hospitalization by 1.7 percentage points (16.6%). Furthermore, we found no evidence that these restrictions resulted in any net savings for Medicaid.

For a surprisingly large segment of the older population, chronological age is not a relevant marker for understanding, measuring, or experiencing healthy aging. Using the 2003 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey and the 2004 Health and Retirement Study to examine the proportion of Americans exhibiting five markers of health and the variation in health-related quality of life across each of eight age groups, we find that a significant proportion of older Americans is healthy within every age group beginning at age 51, including among those aged 85+. For example, 48% of those aged 51-54 and 28% of those aged 85+ have excellent or very good self-reported health status; similarly, 89% of those aged 51-54 and 56% of those aged 85+ report no health-based limitations in work or housework. Also, health-related quality of life ranges widely within every age group, yet there is only a comparatively small variation in median quality of life across age groups, suggesting that older Americans today may be experiencing substantially different age-health trajectories than their predecessors. Patterns are similar for medical expenditures. Several policy implications are explored., (© The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Objective: To determine the association between hospital costs and risk-adjusted inpatient mortality among children undergoing surgery for congenital heart disease (CHD) in U.S. acute-care hospitals., Data Sources/study Settings: Retrospective cohort study of 35,446 children in 2003, 2006, and 2009 Kids' Inpatient Database (KID)., Study Design: Cross-sectional logistic regression of risk-adjusted inpatient mortality and hospital costs, adjusting for a variety of patient-, hospital-, and community-level confounders., Data Collection/extraction Methods: We identified relevant discharges in the KID using the AHRQ Pediatric Quality Indicator for pediatric heart surgery mortality, and linked these records to hospital characteristics from American Hospital Association Surveys and community characteristics from the Census., Principal Findings: Children undergoing CHD surgery in higher cost hospitals had lower risk-adjusted inpatient mortality (p=.002). An increase from the 25th percentile of treatment costs to the 75th percentile was associated with a 13.6 percent reduction in risk-adjusted mortality., Conclusions: Greater hospital costs are associated with lower risk-adjusted inpatient mortality for children undergoing CHD surgery. The specific mechanisms by which greater costs improve mortality merit further exploration., (© Health Research and Educational Trust.)

Despite the goal of comparative effectiveness research (CER) to inform patient-centered care, most studies fail to account for the patient-centeredness of care that already exist in practice, which we denote as passive personalization (PP). Because CER studies describe the average effectiveness of treatments rather than heterogeneity in how individual patients respond to therapies, clinical or coverage policies that respond to CER results may undermine PP in clinical practice and generate worse outcomes. We study this phenomenon empirically in the context of use of antipsychotic drugs in Medicaid patients with schizophrenia using novel instrumental variable methods. We find strong support for PP in clinical practice and demonstrate that the average effects from a CER study cannot be replicated in practice because of the presence of PP. In contrast, providing physicians with evidence to further personalize treatment can produce significant benefits., (Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

In late 2009 US guidelines for HIV treatment were revised to recommend the initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) earlier in the course of the disease. We analyzed the life expectancy gains of people infected with HIV between the introduction of cART in 1996 and the 2009 guideline revisions. Compared to people who initiated cART late (defined as having a CD4 cell count of less than 350 per cubic millimeter of blood), those who initiated treatment early (with a CD4 count of 350-500) could expect to live 6.1 years longer, and the earliest initiators (with a CD4 count of more than 500) could expect an extra 9.0 years of life. The total value of life expectancy gains to the early and earliest initiators of treatment was $80 billion, with each life-year valued at $150,000. The value of the survival gains was more than double the increase in drug manufacturers' revenues from early cART initiation. Our results clarify the economic implications of adherence to treatment guidelines.

Public health agencies face difficult decisions when allocating scarce resources to control the spread of HIV/AIDS. Decisions are often made with few local empirical data. We demonstrated the use of the robust decision making approach in Los Angeles County, an approach that is data driven and allows decision makers to compare the performance of various intervention strategies across thousands of simulated future scenarios. We found that the prevailing strategy of emphasizing behavioral risk reduction interventions was unlikely to achieve the policy goals of the national HIV/AIDS strategy. Of the alternative strategies we examined, those that invested most heavily in interventions to initiate antiretroviral treatment and support treatment adherence were the most likely to achieve policy objectives. By employing similar methods, other public health agencies can identify robust strategies and invest in interventions more likely to achieve HIV/AIDS policy goals.

In recent years, guidelines for HIV treatment have recommended initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) earlier in the course of the disease than was previously the case. These recommendations stem in part from growing evidence that treatment reduces the risk of sexual transmission. We used an epidemiological model of disease transmission and progression to assess HIV prevention through early treatment-that is, initiation of cART when CD4 white blood cell counts are in excess of 350 cells per cubic millimeter. (CD4 cells are involved in the immune system's defense against tumors and infection; the number of CD4 cells in a cubic millimeter of blood is a standard measure of immune response to antiretroviral therapy.) We estimated that the actual timing of treatment initiation in the United States prevented 188,000 HIV cases in the period 1996-2009. "Very early" treatment (at CD4 counts greater than 500) accounted for four-fifths of the prevented cases. For all of the prevented cases, the losses in life expectancy that were avoided were worth $128 billion, assuming that a life-year has a value of $150,000. These findings underscore the cost-effectiveness of early HIV treatment.

With the implementation of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) under way, some policy makers have questioned the continued relevance of the Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program as a safety net for people living with HIV/AIDS. We surveyed HIV care providers to understand the role of the Ryan White Program and to identify concerns regarding the ACA implementation. We also addressed whether the program is still relevant after ACA implementation and, if so, what elements should be retained. We found that providers consider the Ryan White Program to be critical in facilitating high-quality care for people living with HIV/AIDS. Most of the providers highlighted the program's support for providing medical and nonmedical case management as especially valuable and important to the entire continuum of care and for all patient subpopulations. Whether care is supplied by the Ryan White Program, Medicaid, or other means, our findings suggest that case management services will remain critical in treating HIV/AIDS as the health care landscape continues to evolve.

Health insurance gives people living with HIV/AIDS access to medical care, including antiretroviral therapy, which in turn can dramatically improve health and reduce the risk of HIV transmission. Yet many people living with HIV/AIDS remain uninsured. The Affordable Care Act (ACA) seeks to decrease the number of uninsured Americans in part by extending Medicaid coverage to individuals with incomes of up to 138 percent of the federal poverty level. However, many states are not moving forward with this expansion. Using national HIV surveillance data and data from the National Health Interview Survey, we estimated that nearly 115,000 uninsured, low-income people living with HIV/AIDS would be eligible for Medicaid if all states adopted the expansion. Of these, nearly 60,000 live in states not moving forward with the Medicaid expansion. States' decisions about whether or not to participate in the expansion are likely to have important consequences for the health of this population and the evolution of the HIV epidemic.

Objectives: We measure the impact of Medicaid formulary restrictions (FRs) on the rate at which patients who previously failed a drug therapy for schizophrenia are returned to that therapy., Study Design: We collect drug-level information on FRs in state Medicaid programs and examine claims of noninstitutionalized Medicaid enrollees with schizophrenia., Methods: A difference-in-differences technique is used to compute the change in the probability of adverse outcomes before and after a state adopts an FR. This change is compared with the change in failure probabilities in states with no FRs., Results: Regardless of FRs, patients tend to resume the same drug after an adverse medical event. In 2005, 69% of inpatient mental health-related admissions resulted in patients resuming the same therapy within 6 months of the event, and 63% of patients resumed the same drug after a mental health-related emergency department admission. In states where FRs limit access to all atypicals, the likelihood of a patient resuming the same atypical after having ceased treatment for at least 30 days increases by 20.1% relative to patients in states without restrictions. Additionally, patients in states that impose FRs on all atypicals are 11.6% more likely to discontinue all treatments., Conclusions: FR may increase the likelihood that patients will return to failed treatments or cease treatment altogether. Although formularies are designed to reduce drug spending, an unintended consequence may be an increase in the use of other services needed to treat patients with schizophrenia.

Scientific advances have transformed HIV treatment and prevention, leading to the adoption of an approach that emphasizes broad testing and antiretroviral treatment at earlier stages in the disease, called "test and treat." In addition to clinical benefits, early treatment generates considerable social and economic value. These changes raise the prospect that for the first time since the 1980s, an entire generation might be free of HIV. However, achieving such a goal will require continued scientific advances and the presence of policies and programs to ensure that people living with HIV/AIDS have access to health care and adhere to treatment regimens. This article explores the opportunities and challenges that the Affordable Care Act (ACA) presents for people living with HIV/AIDS and discusses how the act's various components might interact with existing support for people with HIV/AIDS, such as the Ryan White Program. As the ACA's reforms proceed, coordinated state and federal programs must make smart policy choices so that critical access to and affordability of comprehensive care are maintained in the fight against HIV/AIDS.

Objectives: To measure the impact of state Medicaid formulary policies on costs for patients with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder., Study Design: Retrospective analysis of medical and pharmacy claims for patients diagnosed with schizophrenia or bipolar disorder in 24 state Medicaid programs., Methods: We combined information on formulary restrictions in Medicaid with the medical and pharmacy claims of 117,908 patients with schizophrenia and 170,596 patients with bipolar disorder in Medicaid who were single-eligible, and newly prescribed a second-generation antipsychotic from 2001 to 2008. We tested the impact of formulary restrictions on the medical costs and utilization of patients in the 12 months after the index prescription. To capture social costs in addition to medical expenditures in Medicaid, we estimated the incremental costs of incarcerating patients with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder associated with formulary restrictions., Results: Patients with schizophrenia subject to formulary restrictions were more likely to be hospitalized (odds ratio 1.13, P <.001), had 23% higher inpatient costs (P <.001), and 16% higher total costs (P <.001). Similar effects were observed for patients with bipolar disorder. Our estimates suggest restrictive formulary policies in Medicaid increased the number of prisoners by 9920 and incarceration costs by $362 million nationwide in 2008., Conclusions: Applying formulary restrictions to atypical antipsychotics is associated with higher total medical expenditures for patients with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder in Medicaid. Combined with the other social costs such as an increase in incarceration rates, these formulary restrictions could increase state costs by $1 billion annually, enough to offset any savings in pharmacy costs.

Despite its success, Medicare Part D has been widely criticized for the gap in coverage, the so-called "doughnut hole". We compare the use of prescription drugs among beneficiaries subject to the coverage gap with usage among beneficiaries who are not exposed to it. We find that the coverage gap does, indeed, disrupt the use of prescription drugs among seniors with diabetes. But the declines in usage are modest and concentrated among higher cost, brand-name medications. Demand for high cost medications such as antipsychotics, antiasthmatics, and drugs of the central nervous system decline by 8-18% in the coverage gap, while use of lower cost medications with high generic penetration such as beta blockers, ACE inhibitors and antidepressants decline by 3-5% after reaching the gap. More importantly, lower adherence to medications is not associated with increases in medical service use., (Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Recent scientific advances suggest that slowing the aging process (senescence) is now a realistic goal. Yet most medical research remains focused on combating individual diseases. Using the Future Elderly Model--a microsimulation of the future health and spending of older Americans--we compared optimistic "disease specific" scenarios with a hypothetical "delayed aging" scenario in terms of the scenarios' impact on longevity, disability, and major entitlement program costs. Delayed aging could increase life expectancy by an additional 2.2 years, most of which would be spent in good health. The economic value of delayed aging is estimated to be $7.1 trillion over fifty years. In contrast, addressing heart disease and cancer separately would yield diminishing improvements in health and longevity by 2060--mainly due to competing risks. Delayed aging would greatly increase entitlement outlays, especially for Social Security. However, these changes could be offset by increasing the Medicare eligibility age and the normal retirement age for Social Security. Overall, greater investment in research to delay aging appears to be a highly efficient way to forestall disease, extend healthy life, and improve public health.

Personalized medicine - the targeting of therapies to individuals on the basis of their biological, clinical, or genetic characteristics - is thought to have the potential to transform health care. While much emphasis has been placed on the value of personalized therapies, less attention has been paid to the value generated by the diagnostic tests that direct patients to those targeted treatments. This paper presents a framework derived from information economics for assessing the value of diagnostics. We demonstrate, via a case study, that the social value of such diagnostics can be very large, both by avoiding unnecessary treatment and by identifying patients who otherwise would not get treated. Despite the potential social benefits, diagnostic development has been discouraged by cost-based, rather than value-based, reimbursement.

With Medicare spending projected to increase to 24 percent of all federal spending and to equal 6 percent of the gross domestic product by 2037, policy makers are again considering ways to curb the program's spending growth. We used a microsimulation approach to estimate three scenarios: imposing a means-tested premium for Part A hospital insurance, introducing a premium support credit to purchase health insurance, and increasing the eligibility age to sixty-seven. We found that the scenarios would lead to reductions in cumulative Medicare spending in 2012-36 of 2.4-24.0 percent. However, the scenarios also would increase out-of-pocket spending for enrollees and, in some cases, cause millions of seniors not to enroll in the program and to be left without coverage. To achieve substantial cost savings without causing substantial lack of coverage among seniors, policy makers should consider benefit changes in combination with other options, such as some of those now being contemplated by the Obama administration and Congress.

Background: Use of proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) is associated with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), an association which may be confounded by unobserved patient and prescriber characteristics., Objective: We assessed for confounding in the association between PPI use and CAP by using a 'falsification approach,' which estimated whether PPI use is also implausibly associated with other common medical conditions for which no known pathophysiologic link exists., Design: Retrospective claims-based cohort study., Setting: Six private U.S. health plans., Subjects: Individuals who filled at least one prescription for a PPI (N = 26,436) and those who never did (N = 28,054) over 11 years., Interventions: Multivariate linear regression of the association between a filled prescription for a PPI and a diagnosis of CAP in each 3-month quarter. In falsification analyses, we tested for implausible associations between PPI use in each quarter and rates of osteoarthritis, chest pain, urinary tract infection (UTI), deep venous thrombosis (DVT), skin infection, and rheumatoid arthritis. Independent variables included an indicator for whether a prescription for a PPI was filled in a given quarter, and quarterly indicators for various co-morbidities, age, income, geographic location, and marital status., Key Results: Compared to nonusers, those ever using a PPI had higher adjusted rates of CAP in quarters in which no prescription was filled (68 vs. 61 cases per 10,000 persons, p < 0.001). Similar associations were noted for all conditions (e.g. chest pain, 336 vs. 282 cases, p < 0.001; UTI, 151 vs. 139 cases, p < 0.001). Among those ever using a PPI, quarters in which a prescription was filled were associated with higher adjusted rates of CAP (111 vs. 68 cases per 10,000, p < 0.001) and all other conditions (e.g. chest pain, 597 vs. 336 cases, p < 0.001; UTI, 186 vs. 151 cases, p < 0.001), compared to quarters in which no prescription was filled., Conclusion: PPI use is associated with CAP, but also implausibly associated with common medical conditions. Observed associations between PPI use and CAP may be confounded.

Objectives: To assess the effect of inpatient oral nutritional supplement (ONS) use on length of stay, episode cost, and 30-day readmission probability., Study Design: Eleven-year retrospective study (2000 to 2010)., Methods: Analyses were conducted using the Premier Perspectives Database, which contained information on 44.0 million adult inpatient episodes. Using a matched sample of ONS and non-ONS episodes for any inpatient diagnosis, instrumental variables regression analysis was performed to quantify the effect of ONS use on length of stay, episode cost, and probability of approximate 30-day readmission. For the readmission outcome, the matched sample was restricted to episodes where the patient was known to be at risk of readmission. The fraction of a hospital's episodes in a given quarter involving ONS was used as an instrumental variable., Results: Within the database, 1.6% of 44.0 million adult inpatient episodes involved ONS use. Based on a matched sample of 1.2 million episodes, ONS patients had a shorter length of stay by 2.3 days (95% confidence interval [CI] - 2.42 to -2.16), from 10.9 to 8.6 days (21.0% decline), and decreased episode cost of $4734 (95% CI - $4754 to - $4714), from $21,950 to $17,216 (21.6% decline). Restricting the matched sample to the 862,960 episodes where patients were readmitted at some point, ONS patients had a reduced probability of early readmission (within 30 days) of 2.3 percentage points (95% CI - 0.027 to - 0.019), from 34.3% to 32.0% (6.7% decline)., Conclusions: Use of ONS decreases length of stay, episode cost, and 30-day readmission risk in the inpatient population.

Background: Despite evidence that greater US Medicare spending is not associated with better quality of care at a regional level, recent studies suggest that greater hospital spending is associated with lower risk-adjusted mortality. Studies have been limited to older data, specific US states and conditions, and the Medicare population., Objectives: To analyze the association between hospital spending and risk-adjusted inpatient mortality for 6 major medical conditions in US acute care hospitals., Study Design: Retrospective cohort study of risk adjusted inpatient mortality, with hospital spending taken from the Dartmouth Atlas of Health Care. The study population included 2,635,510 patients admitted to 1201 US hospitals between 2003 and 2007., Methods: Patient-level logistic regression models were used to estimate the effect of hospital spending on inpatient mortality, controlling for mortality risk, comorbidities, community characteristics (eg, median household income in a patient's zip code), hospital volume and ownership, and admission year., Results: Patients treated at hospitals in the highest spending quintile (relative to the lowest) had lower risk-adjusted inpatient mortality for acute myocardial infarction (odds ratio [OR] 0.751, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.656-0.859), congestive heart failure (OR 0.652, 95% CI 0.560-0.759), stroke (OR 0.852, 95% CI, 0.739-0.983), and hip fracture (OR 0.691, 95% CI 0.545-0.876). Greater spending was associated with lower mortality primarily in nonteaching hospitals, hospitals with fewer than the median number of beds, and nonprofit/public hospitals., Conclusions: Greater hospital spending is associated with lower risk-adjusted inpatient mortality for major medical conditions in the United States.

Newly arrived Mexican immigrants in the United States generally report better health than do native-born Americans, but this health advantage erodes over time. At issue is whether the advantage is illusory-a product of disease that goes undiagnosed in Mexico but is discovered after immigration. Using results from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, we compared clinical to self-reported diagnosed disease prevalence and found that Mexican immigrants are not as healthy as previously thought when undiagnosed disease is taken into account, particularly with respect to diabetes. About half of recent immigrants with diabetes were unaware that they had the disease-an undiagnosed prevalence that was 2.3 times higher than that among Mexican Americans with similar characteristics. Diagnosed prevalence was 47 percent lower among recent Mexican immigrants than among native-born Americans for both diabetes and hypertension, but undiagnosed disease explained one-third of this recent immigrant advantage for diabetes and one-fifth for hypertension. The remaining health advantage might be explained in part by immigrant selectivity-the notion that healthier people might be more likely to come to the United States. Lack of disease awareness is clearly a serious problem among recent Mexican immigrants. Since undiagnosed disease can have adverse health consequences, medical practice should emphasize disease detection among new arrivals as part of routine visits. Although we found little evidence that health insurance plays much of a role in preventing these diseases, we did find that having health insurance was an important factor in promoting awareness of both hypertension and diabetes.

Comparative effectiveness research suggests that conservative management (CM) strategies are no less effective than active initial treatment for many men with localized prostate cancer. We estimate longer-term costs of initial management strategies and potential US health expenditure savings by increased use of conservative management for men with localized prostate cancer. Five-year total health expenditures attributed to initial management strategies for localized prostate cancer were calculated using commercial claims data from 1998 to 2006, and savings were estimated from a US population health-care expenditure model. Our analysis finds that patients receiving combinations of active treatments have the highest additional costs over conservative management at $63 500, followed by $48 550 for intensity-modulated radiation therapy, $37 500 for primary androgen deprivation therapy, and $28 600 for brachytherapy. Radical prostatectomy ($15 200) and external beam radiation therapy ($18 900) were associated with the lowest costs. The population model estimated that US health expenditures could be lowered by 1) use of initial CM over all active treatment ($2.9-3.25 billion annual savings), 2) shifting patients receiving intensity-modulated radiation therapy to CM ($680-930 million), 3) foregoing primary androgen deprivation therapy($555 million), 4) reducing the use of adjuvant androgen deprivation in addition to local therapies ($630 million), and 5) using single treatments rather than combination local treatment ($620-655 million). In conclusion, we find that all active treatments are associated with higher longer-term costs than CM. Substantial savings, representing up to 30% of total costs, could be realized by adopting CM strategies, including active surveillance, for initial management of men with localized prostate cancer.

Statins are considered a clinically important breakthrough for the treatment of cardiovascular disease. However, their social value at the US population level has not previously been studied. From an economic perspective, social value measures the quantity of resources--in monetary terms--that society would be willing to give up in order to retain the survival gains resulting from statin therapy. Using combined population and clinical data, this article calculates statins' social value to consumers, or the value of survival benefits above actual payments for the drug, and to producers, or drug revenues, for the period 1987-2008. National survey data suggest that statin therapy reduced low-density lipoprotein levels by 18.8 percent, which translated into roughly 40,000 fewer deaths, 60,000 fewer hospitalizations for heart attacks, and 22,000 fewer hospitalizations for strokes in 2008. For people starting statin therapy in 1987-2008, consumers captured $947.4 billion (76 percent) of the total social value of the survival gains. Even greater consumer benefits could be achieved in the future if statins were prescribed in full compliance with cholesterol guidelines and patients adhered to prescribed regimens. In addition, statin costs are declining because of patent expirations. Policy makers should consider interventions at the patient and provider levels to encourage both therapy for untreated patients with high cholesterol and greater adherence after therapy is initiated.

Objective: To compare Medicaid spending among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) receiving exenatide or other add-on therapies., Study Design: Medicaid data in patients with T2DM were compared among those who initiated exenatide, thiazolidinediones, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors, or basal insulin. Patients were on a regimen of metformin and/or sulfonylurea for 30 days and continued the next-line therapy for at least 90 days., Methods: Total inpatient, outpatient, prescription, and total annual health expenditures were compared for 1 year following treatment initiation. Regression analyses were conducted to compare spending; analyses controlled for patient characteristics, year of initiation, and prior therapy. Propensity score matching was used to match patients receiving exenatide with those receiving other therapies, and analyses were repeated with matched cohorts., Results: Of 23,966 eligible patients, 1345 initiated exenatide and 22,621 initiated other therapies. In the unmatched analysis, medical spending was significantly lower in those given exenatide compared with those given other therapies for inpatient ($1945 vs $3893), prescription ($4505 vs $5714), and total costs ($11,830 vs $15,459) (P <.01 for all); outpatient spending was not significantly different ($5380 vs $5853, P = .15). In the matched analysis (n = 1345 for exenatide, n = 1345 non-exenatide), patients receiving exenatide had significantly lower spending in all 4 categories: inpatient ($1945 vs $4242), outpatient ($5380 vs $6826), prescription ($4505 vs $5878), and total ($11,830 vs $16,945) (P <.01 for all)., Conclusion: Patients with T2DM receiving exenatide had lower annual Medicaid claims costs compared with patients receiving other therapies.

Air pollution is harmful to human health, but little is known about the costs of pollution-related health care. If such care imposes a significant burden on insurance companies and employers, they would have substantial stakes in improving air quality. Reduced medical spending could also benefit public programs such as Medicare and Medicaid. This study estimated the amount of medical spending by private health insurers and public purchasers, such as Medicare, that is related to air pollution. Specifically, the authors determined how much failing to meet air quality standards cost various purchasers of hospital care in California over 2005-2007. The results indicate that substantial reductions in hospital spending can be achieved through reductions in air pollution.

Affecting an estimated 12.6 million people and causing over 100,000 deaths per year, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacts a heavy burden on American society. Despite knowledge of the impact of COPD on morbidity, mortality, and health care costs, little is known about the association of the disease with economic outcomes such as employment and the collection of disability. We quantify the impact of COPD on Americans aged 51 and older-in particular, their employment prospects and their likelihood of collecting federal disability benefits-by conducting longitudinal regression analysis using the Health and Retirement Study. Controlling for initial health status and a variety of sociodemographic factors, we find that COPD is associated with a decrease in the likelihood of employment of 8.6 percentage points (OR = 0.58, 95% CI 0.50-0.67), from 44% to 35%. This association rivals that of stroke and is larger than those of heart disease, cancer, hypertension, and diabetes. Furthermore, COPD is associated with a 3.9 percentage point (OR 2.52, 95% CI 2.00-3.17) increase in the likelihood of collecting Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI), from 3.2% to 7.1%, as well as a 1.7 percentage point (OR 2.87, 95% CI 2.02-4.08) increase in the likelihood of collecting Supplemental Security Income (SSI), from 1.0% to 2.7%. The associations of COPD with SSDI and SSI are the largest of any of the conditions studied. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that COPD imposes a substantial burden on American society by inhibiting employment and creating disability.

It has long been known that despite well-documented improvements in longevity for most Americans, alarming disparities persist among racial groups and between the well-educated and those with less education. In this article we update estimates of the impact of race and education on past and present life expectancy, examine trends in disparities from 1990 through 2008, and place observed disparities in the context of a rapidly aging society that is emerging at a time of optimism about the next revolution in longevity. We found that in 2008 US adult men and women with fewer than twelve years of education had life expectancies not much better than those of all adults in the 1950s and 1960s. When race and education are combined, the disparity is even more striking. In 2008 white US men and women with 16 years or more of schooling had life expectancies far greater than black Americans with fewer than 12 years of education-14.2 years more for white men than black men, and 10.3 years more for white women than black women. These gaps have widened over time and have led to at least two "Americas," if not multiple others, in terms of life expectancy, demarcated by level of education and racial-group membership. The message for policy makers is clear: implement educational enhancements at young, middle, and older ages for people of all races, to reduce the large gap in health and longevity that persists today.

This paper attempts to quantify the social, private, and public-finance values of reducing obesity through pharmaceutical and medical interventions. We find that the total social value of bariatric surgery is large for treated patients, with incremental social cost-effectiveness ratios typically under $10,000 per life-year saved. On the other hand, pharmaceutical interventions against obesity yield much less social value with incremental social cost-effectiveness ratios around $50,000. Our approach accounts for: competing risks to life expectancy; health care costs; and a variety of non-medical economic consequences (pensions, disability insurance, taxes, and earnings), which account for 20% of the total social cost of these treatments. On balance, bariatric surgery generates substantial private value for those treated, in the form of health and other economic consequences. The net public fiscal effects are modest, primarily because the size of the population eligible for treatment is small. The net social effect is large once improvements in life expectancy are taken into account., (Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)