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Purpose Limited mechanical ventilators (MV) during the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic have led to the use of non-invasive ventilation (NIV) in hypoxemic patients, which has not been studied well. We aimed to assess the association of NIV versus MV with mortality and morbidity during respiratory intervention among hypoxemic patients admitted with COVID-19. Methods We performed a retrospective multi-center cohort study across 5 hospitals during March–April 2020. Outcomes included mortality, severe COVID-19-related symptoms, time to discharge, and final oxygen saturation (SpO2) at the conclusion of the respiratory intervention. Multivariable regression of outcomes was conducted in all hypoxemic participants, 4 subgroups, and propensity-matched analysis. Results Of 2381 participants with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2, 688 were included in the study who were hypoxemic upon initiation of respiratory intervention. During the study period, 299 participants died (43%), 163 were admitted to the ICU (24%), and 121 experienced severe COVID-19-related symptoms (18%). Participants on MV had increased mortality than those on NIV (128/154 [83%] versus 171/534 [32%], OR = 30, 95% CI 16–60) with a mean survival of 6 versus 15 days, respectively. The MV group experienced more severe COVID-19-related symptoms [55/154 (36%) versus 66/534 (12%), OR = 4.3, 95% CI 2.7–6.8], longer time to discharge (mean 17 versus 7.1 days), and lower final SpO2 (92 versus 94%). Across all subgroups and propensity-matched analysis, MV was associated with a greater OR of death than NIV. Conclusions NIV was associated with lower respiratory intervention mortality and morbidity than MV. However, findings may be liable to unmeasured confounding and further study from randomized controlled trials is needed to definitively determine the role of NIV in hypoxemic patients with COVID-19. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s15010-021-01633-6.

Biobanks with exomes linked to electronic health records (EHRs) enable the study of genetic pleiotropy between rare variants and seemingly disparate diseases. We performed robust clinical phenotyping of rare, putatively deleterious variants (loss-of-function [LoF] and deleterious missense variants) in ERCC6, a gene implicated in inherited retinal disease. We analyzed 213,084 exomes, along with a targeted set of retinal, cardiac, and immune phenotypes from two large-scale EHR-linked biobanks. In the primary analysis, a burden of deleterious variants in ERCC6 was strongly associated with 1) retinal disorders; 2) cardiac and electrocardiogram perturbations; and 3) immunodeficiency and decreased immunoglobulin levels. Meta-analysis of results from the BioMe Biobank and UK Biobank showed significant association of deleterious ERCC6 burden with retinal dystrophy (OR=2.6, 95% CI 1.5-4.6; P=8.7 x 10-4 ), atypical atrial flutter (OR=3.5, 95% CI 1.9-6.5; P=6.2 x 10-5 ), arrhythmia (OR=1.5, 95% CI 1.2-2.0; P=2.7 x 10-3 ), and lymphocyte immunodeficiency (OR=3.8, 95% CI 2.1-6.8; P=5.0 x 10-6 ). Carriers of ERCC6 LoF variants who lacked a diagnosis of these conditions exhibited increased symptoms, indicating underdiagnosis. These results reveal a unique genetic link among retinal, cardiac, and immune disorders and underscore the value of EHR-linked biobanks in assessing the full clinical profile of carriers of rare variants. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Aim Predicting progression in diabetic kidney disease (DKD) is critical to improving outcomes. We sought to develop/validate a machine-learned, prognostic risk score (KidneyIntelX™) combining electronic health records (EHR) and biomarkers. Methods This is an observational cohort study of patients with prevalent DKD/banked plasma from two EHR-linked biobanks. A random forest model was trained, and performance (AUC, positive and negative predictive values [PPV/NPV], and net reclassification index [NRI]) was compared with that of a clinical model and Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) categories for predicting a composite outcome of eGFR decline of ≥5 ml/min per year, ≥40% sustained decline, or kidney failure within 5 years. Results In 1146 patients, the median age was 63 years, 51% were female, the baseline eGFR was 54 ml min−1 [1.73 m]−2, the urine albumin to creatinine ratio (uACR) was 6.9 mg/mmol, follow-up was 4.3 years and 21% had the composite endpoint. On cross-validation in derivation (n = 686), KidneyIntelX had an AUC of 0.77 (95% CI 0.74, 0.79). In validation (n = 460), the AUC was 0.77 (95% CI 0.76, 0.79). By comparison, the AUC for the clinical model was 0.62 (95% CI 0.61, 0.63) in derivation and 0.61 (95% CI 0.60, 0.63) in validation. Using derivation cut-offs, KidneyIntelX stratified 46%, 37% and 17% of the validation cohort into low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups for the composite kidney endpoint, respectively. The PPV for progressive decline in kidney function in the high-risk group was 61% for KidneyIntelX vs 40% for the highest risk strata by KDIGO categorisation (p event for the high-risk group was 41% (p Conclusions KidneyIntelX improved prediction of kidney outcomes over KDIGO and clinical models in individuals with early stages of DKD. Graphical abstract

Individuals with diabetic kidney disease (DKD) are at risk for progression, heart failure, and death. We assessed the association of KidneyIntelX, a bioprognostictest validated for DKD progression, with a composite time-to-event endpoint of 57% eGFR decline, kidney failure, heart failure hospitalization (HFH) , or death in a posthoc analysis of a subgroup of CANVAS participants with DKD. sTNFR-1, sTNFR-2, and KIM-1 were measured via proprietary assays, and KidneyIntelX scores were calculated using the existing algorithm. Hazard ratios for high vs. low-risk strata for the composite outcome were adjusted for age, sex, race, treatment arm, baseline CVD, HbA1c, SBP, DBP, LDL, BMI) . During 5.6 years follow-up, 282 (22%) of the 1278 CANVAS participants with DKD experienced the outcome (57% decline in eGFR/ESKD 3%, HFH 6%, death 16%) . The adjusted HR for the composite outcome in KidneyIntelX high-risk group was 2.7 (95% CI 1.9 to 3.8) vs. the low-risk group. Canagliflozin reduced the risk for the composite event vs. placebo, with larger absolute risk reductions for the high-risk stratum (11%) , compared to intermediate (6%) or low-risk strata (4%) (p In conclusion, KidneyIntelX successfully risk-stratified adults with DKD for clinical outcomes. Absolute risk reductions with canagliflozin were greatest in the high-risk stratum, thereby potentially allowing its use to identify patients most likely to benefit from treatment. Disclosure G.N.Nadkarni: Advisory Panel; Renalytix, Consultant; AstraZeneca, Reata Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Renalytix, Siemens, Other Relationship; Renalytix, Stock/Shareholder; Renalytix. D.Takale: None. B.Neal: Other Relationship; Janssen Research & Development, LLC. K.W.Mahaffey: Consultant; Novo Nordisk. Y.Yavin: Employee; Janssen Research & Development, LLC. M.K.Hansen: Employee; Janssen Research & Development, LLC. F.Fleming: Employee; Renalytix. H.L.Heerspink: Consultant; AstraZeneca, Bayer AG, Boehringer Ingelheim International GmbH, Chinook Therapeutics Inc., CSL Behring, Gilead Sciences, Inc., Goldfinch Bio, Inc., Janssen Research & Development, LLC, Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation, Mundipharma, Traveere Pharmaceuticals, Research Support; AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim International GmbH, Novo Nordisk A/S. S.Coca: Advisory Panel; 3ive Labs, Nuwellis, Reprieve Cardiovascular, Consultant; Axon Therapies, Bayer AG, Boehringer Ingelheim International GmbH, Vifor Pharma Management Ltd., Stock/Shareholder; pulseData, Renalytix. Funding Renalytix

KidneyIntelX, a bioprognostic test for assessing risk of CKD progression, risk stratified individuals for kidney, heart failure, and death outcomes in the Canagliflozin Cardiovascular Assessment Study. Individuals scored as high risk seemed to derive more of benefit from treatment with canagliflozin versus placebo. These findings may serve to increase adoption of underutilized therapies for cardiorenal risk reduction in patients with diabetic kidney disease.

Background: Modern machine learning and deep learning algorithms require large amounts of data; however, data sharing between multiple healthcare institutions is limited by privacy and security concerns. Summary: Federated learning provides a functional alternative to the single-institution approach while avoiding the pitfalls of data sharing. In cross-silo federated learning, the data do not leave a site. The raw data are stored at the site of collection. Models are created at the site of collection and are updated locally to achieve a learning objective. We demonstrate a use case with COVID-19-associated AKI. We showed that federated models outperformed their local counterparts, even when evaluated on local data in the test dataset, and performance was like those being used for pooled data. Increases in performance at a given hospital were inversely proportional to dataset size at a given hospital, which suggests that hospitals with smaller datasets have significant room for growth with federated learning approaches. Key Messages: This short article provides an overview of federated learning, gives a use case for COVID-19-associated acute kidney injury, and finally details the issues along with some potential solutions.

Objective To determine whether a machine learning model can detect SARS-CoV-2 infection from physiological metrics collected from wearable devices. Materials and Methods Health care workers from 7 hospitals were enrolled and prospectively followed in a multicenter observational study. Subjects downloaded a custom smart phone app and wore Apple Watches for the duration of the study period. Daily surveys related to symptoms and the diagnosis of Coronavirus Disease 2019 were answered in the app. Results We enrolled 407 participants with 49 (12%) having a positive nasal SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction test during follow-up. We examined 5 machine-learning approaches and found that gradient-boosting machines (GBM) had the most favorable validation performance. Across all testing sets, our GBM model predicted SARS-CoV-2 infection with an average area under the receiver operating characteristic (auROC) = 86.4% (confidence interval [CI] 84–89%). The model was calibrated to value sensitivity over specificity, achieving an average sensitivity of 82% (CI ±∼4%) and specificity of 77% (CI ±∼1%). The most important predictors included parameters describing the circadian heart rate variability mean (MESOR) and peak-timing (acrophase), and age. Discussion We show that a tree-based ML algorithm applied to physiological metrics passively collected from a wearable device can identify and predict SARS-CoV-2 infection. Conclusion Applying machine learning models to the passively collected physiological metrics from wearable devices may improve SARS-CoV-2 screening methods and infection tracking.

Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is a common consequence in type 2 diabetes (T2D) and a leading cause of blindness in working-age adults. Yet, its genetic predisposition is largely unknown. Here, we examined the polygenic architecture underlying DR by deriving and assessing a genome-wide polygenic risk score (PRS) for DR. We evaluated the PRS in 6079 individuals with T2D of European, Hispanic, African and other ancestries from a large-scale multi-ethnic biobank. Main outcomes were PRS association with DR diagnosis, symptoms and complications, and time to diagnosis, and transferability to non-European ancestries. We observed that PRS was significantly associated with DR. A standard deviation increase in PRS was accompanied by an adjusted odds ratio (OR) of 1.12 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04–1.20; P = 0.001] for DR diagnosis. When stratified by ancestry, PRS was associated with the highest OR in European ancestry (OR = 1.22, 95% CI 1.02–1.41; P = 0.049), followed by African (OR = 1.15, 95% CI 1.03–1.28; P = 0.028) and Hispanic ancestries (OR = 1.10, 95% CI 1.00–1.10; P = 0.050). Individuals in the top PRS decile had a 1.8-fold elevated risk for DR versus the bottom decile (P = 0.002). Among individuals without DR diagnosis, the top PRS decile had more DR symptoms than the bottom decile (P = 0.008). The PRS was associated with retinal hemorrhage (OR = 1.44, 95% CI 1.03–2.02; P = 0.03) and earlier DR presentation (10% probability of DR by 4 years in the top PRS decile versus 8 years in the bottom decile). These results establish the significant polygenic underpinnings of DR and indicate the need for more diverse ancestries in biobanks to develop multi-ancestral PRS.

In April 2020, in light of COVID-19-related blood shortages, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) reduced the deferral period for men who have sex with men (MSM) from its previous duration of 1 year to 3 months. Although originally born out of necessity, the decades-old restrictions on MSM donors have been mitigated by significant advancements in HIV screening, treatment, and public education. The severity of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic—and the urgent need for safe blood products to respond to such crises—demands an immediate reconsideration of the 3-month deferral policy for MSM. We review historical HIV testing and transmission evidence, discuss the ethical ramifications of the current deferral period, and examine the issue of noncompliance with donor deferral rules. We also propose an eligibility screening format that involves an individual risk-based screening protocol and, unlike current FDA guidelines, does not effectively exclude donors on the basis of gender identity or sexual orientation. Our policy proposal would allow historically marginalized community members to participate with dignity in the blood donation process without compromising blood donation and transfusion safety outcomes.

Purpose: Advanced, unresectable pancreatic cancer is often treated with either gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel (Gem/NabP) or FOLFIRINOX, although these regimens have never been compared in a head-to-head trial. In this study, we compared these two regimens using Veterans Administration (VA) data and evaluated the use of a novel tumor growth formula to predict outcomes. Methods: We identified 670 Veterans from national VA data with unresected stage II-IV pancreatic adenocarcinoma diagnosed between 2003 and 2016 who were treated with either first-line Gem/NabP or FOLFIRINOX. We compared overall survival (OS) and adverse events by treatment using propensity scores (PS) to account for allocation bias. Using longitudinal CA19-9 biomarker information we then fit the data to a novel tumor growth equation, comparing growth with OS. Results: We found no difference in PS-adjusted (hazard ratio [HR] 1.00; 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.84–1.20) or PS-matched (HR: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.76–1.13) OS between the two treatment groups. Tumor growth analysis revealed similar growth parameter values for Gem/NabP and FOLFIRINOX (P = .074 for difference). Conclusions: Gem/NabP appeared noninferior to FOLFIRINOX for survival outcomes for advanced pancreatic adenocarcinoma based on national VA data. Biomarker-based growth equations may be useful for monitoring treatment response and predicting prognosis for pancreatic cancer.

Background/Aims: Acute kidney injury (AKI) in critically ill patients is common, and continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) is a preferred mode of renal replacement therapy (RRT) in hemodynamically unstable patients. Prediction of clinical outcomes in patients on CRRT is challenging. We utilized several approaches to predict RRT-free survival (RRTFS) in critically ill patients with AKI requiring CRRT. Methods: We used the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-III) database to identify patients ≥18 years old with AKI on CRRT, after excluding patients who had ESRD on chronic dialysis, and kidney transplantation. We defined RRTFS as patients who were discharged alive and did not require RRT ≥7 days prior to hospital discharge. We utilized all available biomedical data up to CRRT initiation. We evaluated 7 approaches, including logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), adaptive boosting (AdaBoost), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), multilayer perceptron (MLP), and MLP with long short-term memory (MLP + LSTM). We evaluated model performance by using area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves. Results: Out of 684 patients with AKI on CRRT, 205 (30%) patients had RRTFS. The median age of patients was 63 years and their median Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II was 67 (interquartile range 52–84). The MLP + LSTM showed the highest AUROC (95% CI) of 0.70 (0.67–0.73), followed by MLP 0.59 (0.54–0.64), LR 0.57 (0.52–0.62), SVM 0.51 (0.46–0.56), AdaBoost 0.51 (0.46–0.55), RF 0.44 (0.39–0.48), and XGBoost 0.43 (CI 0.38–0.47). Conclusions: A MLP + LSTM model outperformed other approaches for predicting RRTFS. Performance could be further improved by incorporating other data types.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Genetic variants in NAT8, a liver- and kidney-specific acetyltransferase encoding gene, have been associated with eGFR and CKD in European populations. Higher circulating levels of two NAT8-associated metabolites, N-δ-acetylornithine and N-acetyl-1-methylhistidine, have been linked to lower eGFR and higher risk of incident CKD in the Black population. We aimed to expand upon prior studies to investigate associations between rs13538, a missense variant in NAT8, N-acetylated amino acids, and kidney failure in multiple, well-characterized cohorts. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: We conducted analyses among participants with genetic and/or serum metabolomic data in the African American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension (AASK; n=962), the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study (n=1050), and BioMe, an electronic health record–linked biorepository (n=680). Separately, we evaluated associations between rs13538, urinary N-acetylated amino acids, and kidney failure in participants in the German CKD (GCKD) study (n=1624). RESULTS: Of 31 N-acetylated amino acids evaluated, the circulating and urinary levels of 14 were associated with rs13538 (P

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) due to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has had devastating effects worldwide. Patients with kidney failure on dialysis may have a higher risk of worse outcomes. Reports from China found that these patients with SARS-CoV-2 had fewer

Background and objectives Sepsis-associated AKI is a heterogeneous clinical entity. We aimed to agnostically identify sepsis-associated AKI subphenotypes using deep learning on routinely collected data in electronic health records. Design, setting, participants, & measurements We used the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III database, which consists of electronic health record data from intensive care units in a tertiary care hospital in the United States. We included patients ≥18 years with sepsis who developed AKI within 48 hours of intensive care unit admission. We then used deep learning to utilize all available vital signs, laboratory measurements, and comorbidities to identify subphenotypes. Outcomes were mortality 28 days after AKI and dialysis requirement. Results We identified 4001 patients with sepsis-associated AKI. We utilized 2546 combined features for K-means clustering, identifying three subphenotypes. Subphenotype 1 had 1443 patients, and subphenotype 2 had 1898 patients, whereas subphenotype 3 had 660 patients. Subphenotype 1 had the lowest proportion of liver disease and lowest Simplified Acute Physiology Score II scores compared with subphenotypes 2 and 3. The proportions of patients with CKD were similar between subphenotypes 1 and 3 (15%) but highest in subphenotype 2 (21%). Subphenotype 1 had lower median bilirubin levels, aspartate aminotransferase, and alanine aminotransferase compared with subphenotypes 2 and 3. Patients in subphenotype 1 also had lower median lactate, lactate dehydrogenase, and white blood cell count than patients in subphenotypes 2 and 3. Subphenotype 1 also had lower creatinine and BUN than subphenotypes 2 and 3. Dialysis requirement was lowest in subphenotype 1 (4% versus 7% [subphenotype 2] versus 26% [subphenotype 3]). The mortality 28 days after AKI was lowest in subphenotype 1 (23% versus 35% [subphenotype 2] versus 49% [subphenotype 3]). After adjustment, the adjusted odds ratio for mortality for subphenotype 3, with subphenotype 1 as a reference, was 1.9 (95% confidence interval, 1.5 to 2.4). Conclusions Utilizing routinely collected laboratory variables, vital signs, and comorbidities, we were able to identify three distinct subphenotypes of sepsis-associated AKI with differing outcomes.

Purpose of Review Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a prevalent disease with the severe clinical implications including myocardial infarction, stroke, and kidney disease. Therapies focusing on glycemic control in T2DM such as biguanides, sulfonylureas, thiazolidinediones, and insulin-based regimens have largely failed to substantially improve cardiovascular and kidney outcomes. We review the recent findings on sodium-glucose co-transporter type 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors which have shown to have beneficial cardiovascular and kidney-related effects.

Kidney pathophysiology is often complex, nonlinear and heterogeneous, which limits the utility of hypothetical-deductive reasoning and linear, statistical approaches to diagnosis and treatment. Emerging evidence suggests that artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled decision support systems - which use algorithms based on learned examples - may have an important role in nephrology. Contemporary AI applications can accurately predict the onset of acute kidney injury before notable biochemical changes occur; can identify modifiable risk factors for chronic kidney disease onset and progression; can match or exceed human accuracy in recognizing renal tumours on imaging studies; and may augment prognostication and decision-making following renal transplantation. Future AI applications have the potential to make real-time, continuous recommendations for discrete actions and yield the greatest probability of achieving optimal kidney health outcomes. Realizing the clinical integration of AI applications will require cooperative, multidisciplinary commitment to ensure algorithm fairness, overcome barriers to clinical implementation, and build an AI-competent workforce. AI-enabled decision support should preserve the pre-eminence of wisdom and augment rather than replace human decision-making. By anchoring intuition with objective predictions and classifications, this approach should favour clinician intuition when it is honed by experience.

Risk variants in the apolipoprotein L1 (APOL1 [OMIM 603743]) gene on chromosome 22 are common in individuals of West African ancestry and confer increased risk of kidney failure for people with African ancestry and hypertension. Whether disclosing APOL1 genetic testing results to patients of African ancestry and their clinicians affects blood pressure, kidney disease screening, or patient behaviors is unknown.To determine the effects of testing and disclosing APOL1 genetic results to patients of African ancestry with hypertension and their clinicians.This pragmatic randomized clinical trial randomly assigned 2050 adults of African ancestry with hypertension and without existing chronic kidney disease in 2 US health care systems from November 1, 2014, through November 28, 2016; the final date of follow-up was January 16, 2018. Patients were randomly assigned to undergo immediate (intervention) or delayed (waiting list control group) APOL1 testing in a 7:1 ratio. Statistical analysis was performed from May 1, 2018, to July 31, 2020.Patients randomly assigned to the intervention group received APOL1 genetic testing results from trained staff; their clinicians received results through clinical decision support in electronic health records. Waiting list control patients received the results after their 12-month follow-up visit.Coprimary outcomes were the change in 3-month systolic blood pressure and 12-month urine kidney disease screening comparing intervention patients with high-risk APOL1 genotypes and those with low-risk APOL1 genotypes. Secondary outcomes compared these outcomes between intervention group patients with high-risk APOL1 genotypes and controls. Exploratory analyses included psychobehavioral factors.Among 2050 randomly assigned patients (1360 women [66%]; mean [SD] age, 53 [10] years), the baseline mean (SD) systolic blood pressure was significantly higher in patients with high-risk APOL1 genotypes vs those with low-risk APOL1 genotypes and controls (137 [21] vs 134 [19] vs 133 [19] mm Hg; P = .003 for high-risk vs low-risk APOL1 genotypes; P = .001 for high-risk APOL1 genotypes vs controls). At 3 months, the mean (SD) change in systolic blood pressure was significantly greater in patients with high-risk APOL1 genotypes vs those with low-risk APOL1 genotypes (6 [18] vs 3 [18] mm Hg; P = .004) and controls (6 [18] vs 3 [19] mm Hg; P = .01). At 12 months, there was a 12% increase in urine kidney disease testing among patients with high-risk APOL1 genotypes (from 39 of 234 [17%] to 68 of 234 [29%]) vs a 6% increase among those with low-risk APOL1 genotypes (from 278 of 1561 [18%] to 377 of 1561 [24%]; P = .10) and a 7% increase among controls (from 33 of 255 [13%] to 50 of 255 [20%]; P = .01). In response to testing, patients with high-risk APOL1 genotypes reported more changes in lifestyle (a subjective measure that included better dietary and exercise habits; 129 of 218 [59%] vs 547 of 1468 [37%]; P .001) and increased blood pressure medication use (21 of 218 [10%] vs 68 of 1468 [5%]; P = .005) vs those with low-risk APOL1 genotypes; 1631 of 1686 (97%) declared they would get tested again.In this randomized clinical trial, disclosing APOL1 genetic testing results to patients of African ancestry with hypertension and their clinicians was associated with a greater reduction in systolic blood pressure, increased kidney disease screening, and positive self-reported behavior changes in those with high-risk genotypes.ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02234063.

OBJECTIVE Type 2 diabetes (T2D) has heterogeneous patient clinical characteristics and outcomes. In previous work, we investigated the genetic basis of this heterogeneity by clustering 94 T2D genetic loci using their associations with 47 diabetes-related traits and identified five clusters, termed β-cell, proinsulin, obesity, lipodystrophy, and liver/lipid. The relationship between these clusters and individual-level metabolic disease outcomes has not been assessed. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Here we constructed individual-level partitioned polygenic scores (pPS) for these five clusters in 12 studies from the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology (CHARGE) consortium and the UK Biobank (n = 454,193) and tested for cross-sectional association with T2D-related outcomes, including blood pressure, renal function, insulin use, age at T2D diagnosis, and coronary artery disease (CAD). RESULTS Despite all clusters containing T2D risk-increasing alleles, they had differential associations with metabolic outcomes. Increased obesity and lipodystrophy cluster pPS, which had opposite directions of association with measures of adiposity, were both significantly associated with increased blood pressure and hypertension. The lipodystrophy and liver/lipid cluster pPS were each associated with CAD, with increasing and decreasing effects, respectively. An increased liver/lipid cluster pPS was also significantly associated with reduced renal function. The liver/lipid cluster includes known loci linked to liver lipid metabolism (e.g., GCKR, PNPLA3, and TM6SF2), and these findings suggest that cardiovascular disease risk and renal function may be impacted by these loci through their shared disease pathway. CONCLUSIONS Our findings support that genetically driven pathways leading to T2D also predispose differentially to clinical outcomes.

INTRODUCTIONEarly detection of patients with cognitive impairment may facilitate care for individuals in this population. Natural language processing (NLP) is a potential approach to identifying patients with cognitive impairment from electronic health records (EHR).METHODSWe used three machine learning algorithms (logistic regression, multilayer perceptron, and random forest) using clinical terms extracted by NLP to predict cognitive impairment in a cohort of 199 patients. Cognitive impairment was defined as a mini-mental status exams (MMSE) score RESULTSNLP identified 69 (35%) patients with cognitive impairment and ICD codes identified 44 (22%). Using MMSE as a reference standard, NLP sensitivity was 35%, specificity 66%, precision 41%, and NPV 61%. The random forest method had the best test parameters; sensitivity 95%, specificity 100%, precision 100%, and NPV 97%DISCUSSIONNLP can identify adults with cognitive impairment with moderate test performance that is enhanced with machine learning.

IMPORTANCE: Population-based assessment of disease risk associated with gene variants informs clinical decisions and risk stratification approaches. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the population-based disease risk of clinical variants in known disease predisposition genes. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cohort study included 72 434 individuals with 37 780 clinical variants who were enrolled in the BioMe Biobank from 2007 onwards with follow-up until December 2020 and the UK Biobank from 2006 to 2010 with follow-up until June 2020. Participants had linked exome and electronic health record data, were older than 20 years, and were of diverse ancestral backgrounds. EXPOSURES: Variants previously reported as pathogenic or predicted to cause a loss of protein function by bioinformatic algorithms (pathogenic/loss-of-function variants). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcome was the disease risk associated with clinical variants. The risk difference (RD) between the prevalence of disease in individuals with a variant allele (penetrance) vs in individuals with a normal allele was measured. RESULTS: Among 72 434 study participants, 43 395 were from the UK Biobank (mean [SD] age, 57 [8.0] years; 24 065 [55%] women; 2948 [7%] non-European) and 29 039 were from the BioMe Biobank (mean [SD] age, 56 [16] years; 17 355 [60%] women; 19 663 [68%] non-European). Of 5360 pathogenic/loss-of-function variants, 4795 (89%) were associated with an RD less than or equal to 0.05. Mean penetrance was 6.9% (95% CI, 6.0%-7.8%) for pathogenic variants and 0.85% (95% CI, 0.76%-0.95%) for benign variants reported in ClinVar (difference, 6.0 [95% CI, 5.6-6.4] percentage points), with a median of 0% for both groups due to large numbers of nonpenetrant variants. Penetrance of pathogenic/loss-of-function variants for late-onset diseases was modified by age: mean penetrance was 10.3% (95% CI, 9.0%-11.6%) in individuals 70 years or older and 8.5% (95% CI, 7.9%-9.1%) in individuals 20 years or older (difference, 1.8 [95% CI, 0.40-3.3] percentage points). Penetrance of pathogenic/loss-of-function variants was heterogeneous even in known disease predisposition genes, including BRCA1 (mean [range], 38% [0%-100%]), BRCA2 (mean [range], 38% [0%-100%]), and PALB2 (mean [range], 26% [0%-100%]). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In 2 large biobank cohorts, the estimated penetrance of pathogenic/loss-of-function variants was variable but generally low. Further research of population-based penetrance is needed to refine variant interpretation and clinical evaluation of individuals with these variant alleles.

We explored rates of premature births and neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admissions at the Mount Sinai Hospital after the implementation of COVID-19 lockdown measures (March 16, 2020) and phase one reopening (June 8, 2020), comparing them to those of the same time periods from 2012-2019. Mount Sinai Hospital is in New York City (NYC), an early epicenter of COVID-19 in the United States, which was heavily impacted by the pandemic during the study period. Among 43,963 singleton births, we observed no difference in either outcome after the implementation of lockdown measures when compared to the same trends in prior years (p=0.09-0.35). Of interest, we observed a statistically significant decrease in premature births after NYC phase one reopening compared to those of the same time period in 2012-2019 across all time windows (p=0.0028-0.049), and a statistically significant decrease in NICU admissions over the largest time window (2.75 months) compared to prior years (p=0.0011).

Background Early reports indicate that AKI is common among patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and associated with worse outcomes. However, AKI among hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in the United States is not well described. Methods This retrospective, observational study involved a review of data from electronic health records of patients aged ≥18 years with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 admitted to the Mount Sinai Health System from February 27 to May 30, 2020. We describe the frequency of AKI and dialysis requirement, AKI recovery, and adjusted odds ratios (aORs) with mortality. Results Of 3993 hospitalized patients with COVID-19, AKI occurred in 1835 (46%) patients; 347 (19%) of the patients with AKI required dialysis. The proportions with stages 1, 2, or 3 AKI were 39%, 19%, and 42%, respectively. A total of 976 (24%) patients were admitted to intensive care, and 745 (76%) experienced AKI. Of the 435 patients with AKI and urine studies, 84% had proteinuria, 81% had hematuria, and 60% had leukocyturia. Independent predictors of severe AKI were CKD, men, and higher serum potassium at admission. In-hospital mortality was 50% among patients with AKI versus 8% among those without AKI (aOR, 9.2; 95% confidence interval, 7.5 to 11.3). Of survivors with AKI who were discharged, 35% had not recovered to baseline kidney function by the time of discharge. An additional 28 of 77 (36%) patients who had not recovered kidney function at discharge did so on posthospital follow-up. Conclusions AKI is common among patients hospitalized with COVID-19 and is associated with high mortality. Of all patients with AKI, only 30% survived with recovery of kidney function by the time of discharge.

Background Data on patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) who return to hospital after discharge are scarce. Characterization of these patients may inform post-hospitalization care. Objective To describe clinical characteristics of patients with COVID-19 who returned to the emergency department (ED) or required readmission within 14 days of discharge. Design Retrospective cohort study of SARS-COV-2-positive patients with index hospitalization between February 27 and April 12, 2020, with ≥ 14-day follow-up. Significance was defined as P < 0.05 after multiplying P by 125 study-wide comparisons. Participants Hospitalized patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 discharged alive from five New York City hospitals. Main Measures Readmission or return to ED following discharge. Results Of 2864 discharged patients, 103 (3.6%) returned for emergency care after a median of 4.5 days, with 56 requiring inpatient readmission. The most common reason for return was respiratory distress (50%). Compared with patients who did not return, there were higher proportions of COPD (6.8% vs 2.9%) and hypertension (36% vs 22.1%) among those who returned. Patients who returned also had a shorter median length of stay (LOS) during index hospitalization (4.5 [2.9,9.1] vs 6.7 [3.5, 11.5] days; Padjusted = 0.006), and were less likely to have required intensive care on index hospitalization (5.8% vs 19%; Padjusted = 0.001). A trend towards association between absence of in-hospital treatment-dose anticoagulation on index admission and return to hospital was also observed (20.9% vs 30.9%, Padjusted = 0.06). On readmission, rates of intensive care and death were 5.8% and 3.6%, respectively. Conclusions Return to hospital after admission for COVID-19 was infrequent within 14 days of discharge. The most common cause for return was respiratory distress. Patients who returned more likely had COPD and hypertension, shorter LOS on index-hospitalization, and lower rates of in-hospital treatment-dose anticoagulation. Future studies should focus on whether these comorbid conditions, longer LOS, and anticoagulation are associated with reduced readmissions. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s11606-020-06120-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

INTRODUCTION A previous study demonstrated that the surface area-normalized standard Kt/V (SAstdKt/V) was better associated with mortality than standard Kt/V (stdKt/V). This study investigates the association of SAstdKt/V and stdKt/V with mortality, anemia, and hypoalbuminemia in a larger patient cohort with a longer follow-up period. METHODS We included adult patients on thrice-weekly hemodialysis in the USRDS database and excluded amputated patients. StdKt/V and SAstdKt/V were calculated from the available single-pool Kt/V. Patients were categorized into five groups according to their stdKt/V and SAstdKt/V

Despite substantial advances in the study, treatment, and prevention of cardiovascular disease, numerous challenges relating to optimally screening, diagnosing, and managing patients remain. Simultaneous improvements in computing power, data storage, and data analytics have led to the development of new techniques to address these challenges. One powerful tool to this end is machine learning (ML), which aims to algorithmically identify and represent structure within data. Machine learning’s ability to efficiently analyze large and highly complex data sets make it a desirable investigative approach in modern biomedical research. Despite this potential and enormous public and private sector investment, few prospective studies have demonstrated improved clinical outcomes from this technology. This is particularly true in cardiology, despite its emphasis on objective, data-driven results. This threatens to stifle ML’s growth and use in mainstream medicine. We outline the current state of ML in cardiology and outline methods through which impactful and sustainable ML research can occur. Following these steps can ensure ML reaches its potential as a transformative technology in medicine.

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) for coronary artery disease (CAD) identify high-risk individuals more likely to benefit from primary prevention statin therapy. Whether polygenic CAD risk is captured by conventional paradigms for assessing clinical cardiovascular risk remains unclear.This study sought to intersect polygenic risk with guideline-based recommendations and management patterns for CAD primary prevention.A genome-wide CAD PRS was applied to 47,108 individuals across 3 U.S. health care systems. The authors then assessed whether primary prevention patients at high polygenic risk might be distinguished on the basis of greater guideline-recommended statin eligibility and higher rates of statin therapy.Of 47,108 study participants, the mean age was 60 years, and 11,020 (23.4%) had CAD. The CAD PRS strongly associated with prevalent CAD (odds ratio: 1.4 per SD increase in PRS; p 0.0001). High polygenic risk (top 20% of PRS) conferred 1.9-fold odds of developing CAD (p 0.0001). However, among primary prevention patients (n = 33,251), high polygenic risk did not correspond with increased recommendations for statin therapy per the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (46.2% for those with high PRS vs. 46.8% for all others, p = 0.54) or U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (43.7% vs. 43.7%, p = 0.99) or higher rates of statin prescriptions (25.0% vs. 23.8%, p = 0.04). An additional 4.1% of primary prevention patients may be recommended for statin therapy if high CAD PRS were considered a guideline-based risk-enhancing factor.Current paradigms for primary cardiovascular prevention incompletely capture a polygenic susceptibility to CAD. An opportunity may exist to improve CAD prevention efforts by integrating both genetic and clinical risk.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The universal adoption of electronic health records, improvement in technology, and the availability of continuous monitoring has generated large quantities of healthcare data. Machine learning is increasingly adopted by nephrology researchers to analyze this data in order to improve the care of their patients. RECENT FINDINGS: In this review, we provide a broad overview of the different types of machine learning algorithms currently available and how researchers have applied these methods in nephrology research. Current applications have included prediction of acute kidney disease and chronic kidney disease along with progression of kidney disease. Researchers have demonstrated the ability of machine learning to read kidney biopsy samples, identify patient outcomes from unstructured data, identify subtypes in complex diseases, and discuss the potential benefits on drug discovery. We end with a discussion on the ethics and potential pitfalls of machine learning. SUMMARY: Machine learning provides researchers with the ability to analyze data which was previously inaccessible. While still burgeoning several studies show promising results which will enable researchers to perform larger scale studies and clinicians the ability to provide more personalized care. However, we must ensure that implementation aids providers and does not lead to harm to patients.

BACKGROUND: Pregnancy-related AKI (PR-AKI) is increasing in the United States. PR-AKI is associated with adverse maternal outcomes. Disparities in racial/ethnic differences in PR-AKI by race have not been studied. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study using the National Inpatient Sample (NIS) from 2005 to 2015. We identified patients who were admitted for a pregnancy-related diagnosis using the Neomat variable provided by the NIS database that indicates the presence of a maternal or neonatal diagnosis code or procedure code. PR-AKI was identified using ICD codes. Survey logistic regression was used for multivariable analysis adjusting for age, medical comorbidities, socioeconomic factors, and hospital/admission factors. RESULTS: From 48,316,430 maternal hospitalizations, 34,001 (0.07%) were complicated by PR-AKI. Hospitalizations for PR-AKI increased from 3.5/10,000 hospitalizations in 2005 to 11.8/10,000 hospitalizations in 2015 with the largest increase seen in patients aged ≥35 and black patients. PR-AKI was associated with higher odds of miscarriage (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.64; 95% CI, 1.34 to 2.07) and mortality (aOR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.25 to 1.88). After adjustment for age, medical comorbidities, and socioeconomic factors, blacks were more likely than whites to develop PR-AKI (aOR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.04 to 1.33). On subgroup analyses in hospitalizations of patients with PR-AKI, blacks and Hispanics were more likely to have preeclampsia/eclampsia compared with whites (aOR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.65; and aOR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.23 to 2.31, respectively). Increased odds of mortality in PR-AKI compared with whites were only seen in black patients (aOR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.02 to 2.55). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of PR-AKI has increased and the largest increase was seen in older patients and black patients. PR-AKI is associated with miscarriages, adverse discharge from hospital, and mortality. Black and Hispanic patients with PR-AKI were more likely to have adverse outcomes than white patients. Further research is needed to identify factors contributing to these discrepancies.

Symptoms are common in patients on maintenance hemodialysis but identification is challenging. New informatics approaches including natural language processing (NLP) can be utilized to identify symptoms from narrative clinical documentation. Here we utilized NLP to identify seven patient symptoms from notes of maintenance hemodialysis patients of the BioMe Biobank and validated our findings using a separate cohort and the MIMIC-III database. NLP performance was compared for symptom detection with International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-9/10 codes and the performance of both methods were validated against manual chart review. From 1034 and 519 hemodialysis patients within BioMe and MIMIC-III databases, respectively, the most frequently identified symptoms by NLP were fatigue, pain, and nausea/vomiting. In BioMe, sensitivity for NLP (0.85 - 0.99) was higher than for ICD codes (0.09 - 0.59) for all symptoms with similar results in the BioMe validation cohort and MIMIC-III. ICD codes were significantly more specific for nausea/vomiting in BioMe and more specific for fatigue, depression, and pain in the MIMIC-III database. A majority of patients in both cohorts had four or more symptoms. Patients with more symptoms identified by NLP, ICD, and chart review had more clinical encounters. NLP had higher specificity in inpatient notes but higher sensitivity in outpatient notes and performed similarly across pain severity subgroups. Thus, NLP had higher sensitivity compared to ICD codes for identification of seven common hemodialysis-related symptoms, with comparable specificity between the two methods. Hence, NLP may be useful for the high-throughput identification of patient-centered outcomes when using electronic health records.

Most loci identified by GWASs have been found in populations of European ancestry (EUR). In trans-ethnic meta-analyses for 15 hematological traits in 746,667 participants, including 184,535 non-EUR individuals, we identified 5,552 trait-variant associations at p < 5 × 10-9, including 71 novel associations not found in EUR populations. We also identified 28 additional novel variants in ancestry-specific, non-EUR meta-analyses, including an IL7 missense variant in South Asians associated with lymphocyte count in vivo and IL-7 secretion levels in vitro. Fine-mapping prioritized variants annotated as functional and generated 95% credible sets that were 30% smaller when using the trans-ethnic as opposed to the EUR-only results. We explored the clinical significance and predictive value of trans-ethnic variants in multiple populations and compared genetic architecture and the effect of natural selection on these blood phenotypes between populations. Altogether, our results for hematological traits highlight the value of a more global representation of populations in genetic studies.

Objective To determine whether surge conditions were associated with increased mortality. Design Multicenter cohort study. Setting U.S. ICUs participating in STOP-COVID. Patients Consecutive adults with COVID-19 admitted to participating ICUs between March 4 and July 1, 2020. Interventions None Measurements and Main Results The main outcome was 28-day in-hospital mortality. To assess the association between admission to an ICU during a surge period and mortality, we used two different strategies: (1) an inverse probability weighted difference-in-differences model limited to appropriately matched surge and non-surge patients and (2) a meta-regression of 50 multivariable difference-in-differences models (each based on sets of randomly matched surge- and non-surge hospitals). In the first analysis, we considered a single surge period for the cohort (March 23 – May 6). In the second, each surge hospital had its own surge period (which was compared to the same time periods in matched non-surge hospitals). Our cohort consisted of 4342 ICU patients (average age 60.8 [sd 14.8], 63.5% men) in 53 U.S. hospitals. Of these, 13 hospitals encountered surge conditions. In analysis 1, the increase in mortality seen during surge was not statistically significant (odds ratio [95% CI]: 1.30 [0.47-3.58], p = .6). In analysis 2, surge was associated with an increased odds of death (odds ratio 1.39 [95% CI, 1.34-1.43], p Conclusions Admission to an ICU with COVID-19 in a hospital that is experiencing surge conditions may be associated with an increased odds of death. Given the high incidence of COVID-19, such increases would translate into substantial excess mortality.

UNSTRUCTURED N-of-1 trials are the gold standard study design to evaluate individual treatment effects and derive personalized treatment strategies. Digital tools have the potential to initiate a new era of N-of-1 trials in terms of scale and scope, but fully functional platforms are not yet available. Here, we present the open source StudyU platform, which includes the StudyU Designer and StudyU app. With the StudyU Designer, scientists are given a collaborative web application to digitally specify, publish, and conduct N-of-1 trials. The StudyU app is a smartphone app with innovative user-centric elements for participants to partake in trials published through the StudyU Designer to assess the effects of different interventions on their health. Thereby, the StudyU platform allows clinicians and researchers worldwide to easily design and conduct digital N-of-1 trials in a safe manner. We envision that StudyU can change the landscape of personalized treatments both for patients and healthy individuals, democratize and personalize evidence generation for self-optimization and medicine, and can be integrated in clinical practice.

N-of-1 trials are the gold standard study design to evaluate individual treatment effects and derive personalized treatment strategies. Digital tools have the potential to initiate a new era of N-of-1 trials in terms of scale and scope, but fully functional platforms are not yet available. Here, we present the open source StudyU platform, which includes the StudyU Designer and StudyU app. With the StudyU Designer, scientists are given a collaborative web application to digitally specify, publish, and conduct N-of-1 trials. The StudyU app is a smartphone app with innovative user-centric elements for participants to partake in trials published through the StudyU Designer to assess the effects of different interventions on their health. Thereby, the StudyU platform allows clinicians and researchers worldwide to easily design and conduct digital N-of-1 trials in a safe manner. We envision that StudyU can change the landscape of personalized treatments both for patients and healthy individuals, democratize and personalize evidence generation for self-optimization and medicine, and can be integrated in clinical practice., Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Reihe der Digital Engineering Fakultät; 12

IntroductionAKI is a heterogeneous syndrome defined via serum creatinine and urine output criteria. However, these markers are insufficient to capture the biological complexity of AKI and not necessarily inform on future risk of kidney and clinical events.MethodsData from ASSESS-AKI was obtained and analyzed to uncover different clinical and biological signatures within AKI. We utilized a set of unsupervised machine learning algorithms incorporating a comprehensive panel of systemic and organ-specific biomarkers of inflammation, injury, and repair/health integrated into electronic data. Furthermore, the association of these novel biomarker-enriched subphenotypes with kidney and cardiovascular events and death was determined. Clinical and biomarker concentration differences among subphenotypes were evaluated via classic statistics. Kaplan-Meier and cumulative incidence curves were obtained to evaluate longitudinal outcomes.ResultsAmong 1538 patients from ASSESS-AKI, we included 748 AKI patients in the analysis. The median follow-up time was 4.8 years. We discovered 4 subphenotypes via unsupervised learning. Patients with AKI subphenotype 1 (‘injury’ cluster) were older (mean age ± SD): 71.2 ± 9.4 (pConclusionWe discovered four clinically meaningful AKI subphenotypes with statistical differences in biomarker composites that associate with longitudinal risks of adverse clinical events. Our approach is a novel look at the potential mechanisms underlying AKI and the putative role of biomarkers investigation.

Background Fluid management during continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) requires accuracy in the prescription of desired patient fluid balance (FBGoal) and precision in the attainable patient fluid balance (FBAchieved). Herein, we examined the association of the gap between prescribed vs. achieved patient fluid balance during CRRT (%FBGap) with hospital mortality in critically ill patients. Methods Cohort study of critically ill adults with acute kidney injury (AKI) requiring CRRT and a prescription of negative fluid balance (mean patient fluid balance goal of negative ≥0.5 liters per day). Fluid management parameters included: 1) NUF (net ultrafiltration rate); 2) FBGoal; 3) FBAchieved; and 4) FBGap (% gap of fluid balance achieved vs. goal), all adjusted by patient’s weight (kg) and duration of CRRT (hours). Results Data from 653 patients (median of 102.2 patient-hours of CRRT) were analyzed. Mean (SD) age was 56.7 (14.6) years and 61.9% were male. Hospital mortality rate was 64%. Despite FBGoal was similar in patients who died vs. survived, survivors achieved greater negative fluid balance during CRRT than non-survivors: median FBAchieved -0.25 [-0.52 to -0.05] vs. 0.06 [-0.26 to 0.62] ml/kg/h, ppGap was higher in patients who died (112.8%, 61.5 to 165.7) vs. survived (64.2%, 30.5 to 91.8), pGap was independently associated with increased risk of hospital mortality: aOR (95% CI) 1.01 (1.01–1.02), pGap and other clinical parameters: aOR 0.96 (0.72–1.28), p = 0.771. Conclusions Higher %FBGap was independently associated with an increased risk of hospital mortality in critically ill adults with AKI on CRRT in whom clinicians prescribed negative fluid balance via CRRT. %FBGap represents a novel quality indicator of CRRT delivery that could assist with operationalizing fluid management interventions during CRRT.

The burden of advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) falls disproportionately on minorities including African Americans (AAs) and Hispanic Americans (HAs) with admixed ancestry. Even though APOL1 high-risk genotypes increase risk of kidney disease, their penetrance is incomplete, indicating that the modification of APOL1 high risk may be polygenic. For this study, we used three multi-ethnic cohorts with APOL1 high risk genotypes and calculated a multi-ethnic PRS using publicly available summary statistics. We show that CKD risk is significantly modified by a multi-ethnic polygenic risk score. Standardizing population screening for CKD by including APOL1 high-risk genotypes and polygenic risk score may improve risk stratification and outcomes.

Clinical, laboratory, and autopsy findings support an association between coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) and thromboembolic disease. Acute COVID-19 infection is characterized by mononuclear cell reactivity and pan-endothelialitis, contributing to a high incidence of thrombosis in large and small blood vessels, both arterial and venous. Observational studies and randomized trials have investigated whether full-dose anticoagulation may improve outcomes compared with prophylactic dose heparin. Although no benefit for therapeutic heparin has been found in patients who are critically ill hospitalized with COVID-19, some studies support a possible role for therapeutic anticoagulation in patients not yet requiring intensive care unit support. We summarize the pathology, rationale, and current evidence for use of anticoagulation in patients with COVID-19 and describe the main design elements of the ongoing FREEDOM COVID-19 Anticoagulation trial, in which 3,600 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 not requiring intensive care unit level of care are being randomized to prophylactic-dose enoxaparin vs therapeutic-dose enoxaparin vs therapeutic-dose apixaban. (FREEDOM COVID-19 Anticoagulation Strategy [FREEDOM COVID]; NCT04512079).

ImportancePassive and non-invasive identification of SARS-CoV-2 infection remains a challenge. Widespread use of wearable devices represents an opportunity to leverage physiological metrics and fill this knowledge gap.ObjectiveTo determine whether a machine learning model can detect SARS-CoV-2 infection from physiological metrics collected from wearable devices.DesignA multicenter observational study enrolling health care workers with remote follow-up.SettingSeven hospitals from the Mount Sinai Health System in New York CityParticipantsEligibility criteria included health care workers who were ≥18 years, employees of one of the participating hospitals, with at least an iPhone series 6, and willing to wear an Apple Watch Series 4 or higher. We excluded participants with underlying autoimmune/inflammatory diseases, and medications known to interfere with autonomic function. We enrolled participants between April 29th, 2020, and March 2nd, 2021, and followed them for a median of 73 days (range, 3-253 days). Participants provided patient-reported outcome measures through a custom smartphone application and wore an Apple Watch, collecting heart rate variability and heart rate data, throughout the follow-up period.ExposureParticipants were exposed to SARS-CoV-2 infection over time due to ongoing community spread.Main Outcome and MeasureThe primary outcome was SARS-CoV-2 infection, defined as ±7 days from a self-reported positive SARS-CoV-2 nasal PCR test.ResultsWe enrolled 407 participants with 49 (12%) having a positive SARS-CoV-2 test during follow-up. We examined five machine-learning approaches and found that gradient-boosting machines (GBM) had the most favorable 10-CV performance. Across all testing sets, our GBM model predicted SARS-CoV-2 infection with an average area under the receiver operating characteristic (auROC)=85% (Confidence Interval 83-88%). The model was calibrated to improve sensitivity over specificity, achieving an average sensitivity of 76% (CI ±∼4%) and specificity of 84% (CI ±∼0.4%). The most important predictors included parameters describing the circadian HRV mean (MESOR) and peak-timing (acrophase), and age.Conclusions and RelevanceWe show that a tree-based ML algorithm applied to physiological metrics passively collected from a wearable device can identify and predict SARS-CoV2 infection. Utilizing physiological metrics from wearable devices may improve screening methods and infection tracking.

Background Despite advances in cardiovascular disease and risk factor management, mortality from ischemic heart failure (HF) in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) remains high. Given the partial role of genetics in HF and lack of reliable risk stratification tools, we developed and validated a polygenic risk score for HF in patients with CAD, which we term HF‐PRS. Methods and Results Using summary statistics from a recent genome‐wide association study for HF, we developed candidate PRSs in the Mount Sinai Bio Me CAD patient cohort (N=6274) by using the pruning and thresholding method and LDPred. We validated the best score in the Penn Medicine BioBank (N=7250) and performed a subgroup analysis in a high‐risk cohort who had undergone coronary catheterization. We observed a significant association between HF‐PRS score and ischemic HF even after adjusting for evidence of obstructive CAD in patients of European ancestry in both Bio Me (odds ratio [OR], 1.14 per SD; 95% CI, 1.05–1.24; P =0.003) and Penn Medicine BioBank (OR, 1.07 per SD; 95% CI, 1.01–1.13; P =0.016). In European patients with CAD in Penn Medicine BioBank who had undergone coronary catheterization, individuals in the top 10th percentile of PRS had a 2‐fold increased odds of ischemic HF (OR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.1–3.7; P =0.02) compared with the bottom 10th percentile. Conclusions A PRS for HF enables risk stratification in patients with CAD. Future prospective studies aimed at demonstrating clinical utility are warranted for adoption in the patient setting.

Summary ParagraphTwo years into the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, the post-acute sequelae of infection are compounding the global health crisis. Often debilitating, these sequelae are clinically heterogeneous and of unknown molecular etiology. Here, a transcriptome-wide investigation of this new condition was performed in a large cohort of acutely infected patients followed clinically into the post-acute period. Gene expression signatures of post-acute sequelae were already present in whole blood during the acute phase of infection, with both innate and adaptive immune cells involved. Plasma cells stood out as driving at least two distinct clusters of sequelae, one largely dependent on circulating antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and the other antibody-independent. Altogether, multiple etiologies of post-acute sequelae were found concomitant with SARS-CoV-2 infection, directly linking the emergence of these sequelae with the host response to the virus.