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Lake phytoplankton richness data were analyzed to reveal the effects of area and scale on the richness-elevation relationship. Lakes provide a unique opportunity to accomplish this because of their well-defined boundaries, which clearly define local communities and their habitat area. Local phytoplankton richness (alpha diversity) was found to decrease with increasing elevation, even when the effect of lake area was accounted for. This decrease coincided with a decrease in lake productivity with increasing elevation. Additionally, pairwise dissimilarity calculations suggested that isolation by distance was less important in structuring local phytoplankton richness than isolation by either elevation or environmental distance. In contrast, phytoplankton richness calculated for elevation bands (gamma diversity) showed a hump-shaped dependence on elevation, with a mid-elevation maximum, consistent with the predictions of a mid-domain null model. Moreover, mean pairwise dissimilarity within elevation bands shows compositional dissimilarity to be highest at high elevations and low environmental distances, emphasizing the isolated character of high-elevation lakes. We suggest that the form of the phytoplankton richness-elevation relationship is scale-dependent, and that geometric constraints, differences in the possibility of horizontal and vertical dispersal, environmental heterogeneity and an underlying monotonic trend in productivity, are likely to be responsible for the patterns in alpha and gamma diversity observed along elevation gradients.

Systematic differences in the trend towards earlier ice-out on Swedish lakes along a latitudinal temperature gradient

The seasonality of nutrients and chlorophyll a in Lake Erken (Sweden) was monitored during 1994 to 2001 (warm period) and compared to the time period 1975 to 1979 (cold period). The coupling to weather conditions and potentially influencing factors, such as water temperature, light conditions, and stratification were evaluated. During the warm period the ice cover period was considerably shorter and the ice breakup about one month earlier than in the cold period. The decrease in thickness and duration of snow cover resulted in considerably better light conditions during winter, favouring phytoplankton growth under the ice. The nitrate concentrations were much lower in late winter during the warm period. There were elevated phosphate and ammonium concentrations in the hypolimnion during August. Significantly higher phosphate and chlorophyll a levels were noticed in autumn during the warm period, compared to the cold period.

Inland waters transport large amounts of dissolved organic matter (DOM) from terrestrial environments to the oceans, but DOM also reacts en route, with substantial water column losses by mineralization and sedimentation. For DOM transformations along the aquatic continuum, lakes play an important role as they retain waters in the landscape allowing for more time to alter DOM. We know DOM losses are significant at the global scale, yet little is known about how the reactivity of DOM varies across landscapes and climates. DOM reactivity is inherently linked to its chemical composition. We used fluorescence spectroscopy to explore DOM quality from 560 lakes distributed across Sweden and encompassed a wide climatic gradient typical of the boreal ecozone. Six fluorescence components were identified using parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC). The intensity and relative abundance of these components were analyzed in relation to lake chemistry, catchment, and climate characteristics. Land cover, particularly the percentage of water in the catchment, was a primary factor explaining variability in PARAFAC components. Likewise, lake water retention time influenced DOM quality. These results suggest that processes occurring in upstream water bodies, in addition to the lake itself, have a dominant influence on DOM quality. PARAFAC components with longer emission wavelengths, or red-shifted components, were most reactive. In contrast, protein-like components were most persistent within lakes. Generalized characteristics of PARAFAC components based on emission wavelength could ease future interpretation of fluorescence spectra. An important secondary influence on DOM quality was mean annual temperature, which ranged between � 6.2 and +7.5 °C. These results suggest that DOM reactivity depends more heavily on the duration of time taken to pass through the landscape, rather than temperature. Projected increases in runoff in the boreal region may force lake DOM toward a higher overall amount and proportion of humic-like substances.

Changes in the timing, composition, and intensity of freshwater phytoplankton blooms are known to have an impact on water quality and aquatic ecosystem functions. Factors provoking these changes are, therefore, of major importance. In Lake Erken in southeastern Sweden considerable changes in the timing and large variations in the composition of phytoplankton spring peaks have been observed during the past 45 yr. Here we show that long-term changes and variations in Lake Erken are strongly related to a single global parameter-the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Even regional parameters that are known to have most influence on the spring development of phytoplankton such as ice break-up and nutrient concentrations could not provide a more conclusive explanation of the observed changes in spring phytoplankton, making the NAO a very powerful and simple tool in determining the timing and composition of phytoplankton spring peaks in a temperate lake.

We performed intensive sediment trap studies at different water depths and locations in nine Swedish lakes to determine the flux, distribution, and origin of settling particulate matter in the pelagic zone. From these data, we developed a dynamic model that includes important mechanisms controlling fluxes of autochthonous, allochthonous, and resuspended particles in lakes during both stratification and turnover. The data suggest that during the period of turnover, sediment resuspension is a function of direct wind/wave activities. During these periods, resuspended particles are quite evenly distributed in the water column. During stratification, however, particles in deeper lakes are enriched in the hypolimnion. We suggest that these particles are resuspended due mainly to internal water motions. The model describes how much and at which water depths material is resuspended, and how this material is distributed in the water column. This includes the process of sediment focusing. The model allows determination of sediment accumulation at different water depths and of the boundary between erosion, transportation, and accumulation of sediment. Furthermore, the model shows the time dependence of the flux and distribution of settling particles in relation to changes in wind speed. The model is driven by wind, stratification, and lake morphometric data that can be determined with good accuracy. Some coefficients describing particle dynamics are also needed, e.g. particle settling velocity, vertical water mixing velocity, and sediment resuspension rate. The most uncertain coefficients were subjected to sensitivity analyses. The model can explain differences over time in the flux, origin, and distribution of settling particles in different lakes. Because it has earlier been recognized that the flux and distribution of settling particles can be of great importance for the dispersal, burial, biouptake, and ecological effects of nutrients and contaminants, the model may provide valuable information for lake management.

The color of freshwaters, often measured as absorbance, influences a number of ecosystem services including biodiversity, fish production, and drinking water quality. Many countries have recently reported on increasing trends of water color in freshwaters, for which drivers are still not fully understood. We show here with more than 58000 water samples from the boreal and hemiboreal region of Sweden and Canada that absorbance of filtered water (a(420)) co-varied with dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations (R-2 = 0.85, P

The character of organic carbon (OC) in lake waters is strongly dependent on the time water has spent in the landscape as well as in the lake itself due to continuous biogeochemical OC transformation processes. A common view is that upstream lakes might prolong the water retention in the landscape, resulting in an altered OC character downstream. We calculated the number of lakes upstream for 24,742 Swedish lakes in seven river basins spanning from 56o to 68o N. For each of these lakes, we used a lake volume to discharge comparison on a landscape scale to account for upstream water retention by lakes (Tn tot). We found a surprisingly weak relationship between the number of lakes upstream and Tn tot. Accordingly, we found that the coloured fraction of organic carbon was not related to lake landscape position but significantly related to Tn tot when we analysed lake water chemical data from 1,559 lakes in the studied river basins. Thus, we conclude that water renewal along the aquatic continuum by lateral water inputs offsets cumulative retention by lakes. Based on our findings, we suggest integrating Tn tot in studies that address lake landscape position in the boreal zone to better understand variations in the character of organic carbon across lake districts.

A detailed record of suspended particulate matter (SPM) concentrations in the benthic boundary layer (BBL) 1.5 m above an accumulation bottom and 13.5 m below the surface was obtained from frequent (30 min interval) beam attenuation measurements made with a Sea Tech transmissometer in the main basin of Lake Erken, a moderately deep (mean depth 9 m, maximum depth 21 m) dimictic lake in central Sweden. Concentrations of SPM (g m−3) were not as strongly correlated to the beam attenuation coefficient (c, [m−1]), as were concentrations of the inorganic SPM fraction. Apparently, this was caused by large optically inactive organic particles which significantly affected the measurements of SPM, but had little effect on the attenuation of light. When the water column was thermally stratified, SPM concentrations in the BBL showed a seasonal increase which was related to an increase in the thermocline depth. As the epilimnion deepened, there was also a marked increase in the occurrence of rapid and large changes in SPM concentration. After the loss of stratification, the amount of SPM and the temporal variability in its concentration was reduced. Since surface waves could not influence sediment resuspension at the depth of measurement, these data show the importance of internal waves in promoting sediment resuspension in areas of sediment accumulation. The relatively short period in each summer, when the thermocline reaches a sufficient depth to allow for resuspension over accumulation bottoms, can have important consequences for both the redistribution of lake sediments and the internal loading of phosphorus.

In this study, we used a large data set on nitrogen (N) and carbon (C) from Swedish boreal soils and lake waters to investigate N and C interactions between soils and lake waters. To link thousands ...

Limnologists and water resources managers have traditionally perceived lakes as discrete geographical entities. This has resulted in a tendency for scientific lake studies to concentrate on lakes as individuals, with little connection either to each other or to large-scale driving forces. Since the 1990s, however, a shift in the prevailing paradigm has occurred, with lakes increasingly being seen as responding to regional, rather than local, driving forces. The seminal work on regional coherence in lake behaviour was that of Magnuson et al. (1990), who showed that many features of lakes within the same region respond coherently to drivers such as climate forcing and catchment processes. From this study it emerged that the degree of coherence among lakes is greatest for those properties most directly affected by climate forcing. Specifically, the physical properties of lakes tend to vary in a more coherent way than their chemical and biological properties (see also Kratz et al., 1998). Further overviews of the topics of coherence and climate-driven variability, focusing

Phytoplankton, an assemblage of suspended, primarily autotrophic single cells and colonies, forms part of the base of the pelagic food chain in lakes. The responses of phytoplankton to anthropogenic pressures frequently provide the most visible indication of a long-term change in water quality. Several attributes related to the growth and composition of phytoplankton, such as their community structure, abundance as well as the frequency and the intensity of blooms, are included as indicators of water quality in the Water Framework Directive. The growth and seasonal succession of phytoplankton is regulated by a variety of external as well as internal factors (Reynolds et al., 1993; Reynolds, 2006). Among the most important external factors are light, temperature, and those associated with the supply of nutrients from point and diffuse sources in the catchment. The internal factors include the residence time of the lakes, the underwater light regime and the mixing characteristics of the water column. The schematic diagram (Fig. 14.1) shows some of the ways in which systematic changes in the climate can modulate these seasonal and inter-annual variations. The effects associated with the projected changes in the rainfall are likely to be most pronounced in small lakes with short residence times (see George et al., 2004 for some examples). In contrast, those connected with the projected changes in irradiance and wind mixing, are likely to be most important in deep, thermally stratified lakes.

In Chapter 5 of this book, it is shown that the formation of ice on the surface of a lake (‘ice-on’) and its thawing and ultimate disappearance (‘ice-off’) are complex phenomena governed by mechanisms that involve many interacting meteorological (and some non-meteorological) forcing factors. Linking ice phenology – the timing of ice-on and ice-off – to climatic forcing might therefore be expected to be a difficult task. This task, however, is simplified considerably by the fact that air temperature is the dominant variable driving ice phenology (Williams, 1971; Ruosteenoja, 1986; Vavrus et al., 1996; Williams and Stefan, 2006), and is also correlated to some extent with other relevant meteorological driving variables such as solar radiation, relative humidity and snowfall.

In Northern Europe, most lakes are characterized by extended periods of winter ice cover, high spring inflow from snow melt and brown water produced by the transport of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from the surrounding catchments. In this chapter, the potential impact of climate change on the dynamics of these lakes is addressed by: (i) Describing the historical responses of the lakes to changes in the weather. (ii) Summarizing the results of modelling studies that quantify the impact of future changes in the climate on the lakes and the surrounding catchments. Many existing water quality problems could well be exacerbated by the effects of climatic change. It is therefore important to assess the holistic responses of the individual lakes to the combined effects of local changes in the catchment and regional changes in the weather (Hall et al., 1999; Anderson et al., 2005). Overall, the response of individual lakes to climate change can be very different (Blenckner et al., 2004). For example, mountain lake catchments are affected differently from those at lower altitudes. In addition, the landscape position of a particular lake influences hydrological flow regime (Kratz et al., 1997). Furthermore, the response of lakes to climatic variation is also modified by physical lake features such as morphometry and water clarity which, in turn, is also affected by the concentration of the dissolved organic carbon (see for example Fee et al., 1996). Also, the alignment of the lake in relation to the main wind direction is important for the timing of the ice break-up and mixing regime. Even, the environmental changes experienced by the lake in the past can affect the magnitude of the response to climatic variation. Lakes in a recovery phase from eutrophication, acidification, toxic components or any other strong human disturbance, might respond differently to climatic variability and change owing to their specific history and food web structure.

Understanding variability patterns of biogeochemical conditions in water is a key issue for water management strategies. Here a unique homogeneous data set of 1041 Swedish boreal lakes, sampled during three lake inventories along an 8 degrees latitudinal temperature gradient, revealed a systematic increase in the variability of the water chemical composition between lakes with increasing temperatures. The variability pattern was consistent on a spatial and temporal scale and became especially apparent for water chemical variables showing an in-lake biological process-driven seasonality, such as nitrogen, pH, silica, and organic carbon. The degree of dissimilarity in the chemical composition between lakes was well related to the duration of the main growing and runoff season (D-T > 0), both on a spatial scale (R-2 = 0.57-0.79, P 0 is a very suitable proxy to explain biogeochemical variability patterns between lakes. According to this study, a further temperature increase will result in an increased biogeochemical dissimilarity between lakes.

Meteorological forcing at the air-water interface is the main determinant of the heat balance of most lakes (Edinger et al., 1968; Sweers, 1976). Year-to-year changes in the weather therefore have a major effect on the thermal characteristics of lakes. However, lakes that differ with respect to their morphometry respond differently to these changes (Gorham, 1964), with deeper lakes integrating the effects of meteorological forcing over longer periods of time. Other important factors that can influence the thermal characteristics of lakes include hydraulic residence time, optical properties and landscape setting (e.g. Salonen et al., 1984; Fee et al., 1996; Livingstone et al., 1999). These factors modify the thermal responses of the lake to meteorological forcing (cf. Magnuson et al., 2004; Blenckner, 2005) and regulate the patterns of spatial coherence (Chapter 17) observed in the different regions (Livingstone, 1993; George et al., 2000; Livingstone and Dokulil, 2001; Jarvinen et al., 2002; Blenckner et al., 2004)

Lakes of Europe show a great variability in their characteristics, with boreal lakes at northern latitudes as the most abundant lake type. The variability is a result of large gradients in climate, geological history, land use, and atmospheric deposition, mainly along a north–south axis. Worldwide, the best known lakes are probably Europe's lakes in the Alp region, most likely due to their spectacular surroundings and their long tradition of providing good research facilities with all necessary infrastructure. Lakes of Europe, including very remote lakes, are subjected to multiple stressors, climate change and atmospheric deposition being examples. These stressors can cause water quality problems. One of the most common water quality problems occurring in all European countries have been and still are harmful algal blooms.

Earth’s climate is changing, and by the end of the 21st century in Europe, average temperatures are likely to have risen by at least 2 °C, and more likely 4 °C, with associated effects on patterns of precipitation and the frequency of extreme weather events. Attention among policy-makers is divided about how to minimise the change, how to mitigate its effects, how to maintain the natural resources on which societies depend and how to adapt human societies to the changes. Natural systems are still seen, through a long tradition of conservation management that is largely species-based, as amenable to adaptive management, and biodiversity, mostly perceived as the richness of plant and vertebrate communities, often forms a focus for planning. We argue that prediction of particular species changes will be possible only in a minority of cases but that prediction of trends in general structure and operation of four generic freshwater ecosystems (erosive rivers, depositional floodplain rivers, shallow lakes and deep lakes) in three broad zones of Europe (Mediterranean, Central and Arctic- Boreal) is practicable. Maintenance and rehabilitation of ecological structures and operations will inevitably and incidentally embrace restoration of appropriate levels of species biodiversity. Using expert judgement, based on an extensive literature, we have outlined, primarily for lay policy makers, the pristine features of these systems, their states under current human impacts, how these states are likely to alter with a warming of 2 °C to 4 °C and what might be done to mitigate this. We have avoided technical terms in the interests of communication, and although we have included full referencing as in academic papers, we have eliminated degrees of detail that could confuse broad policy-making

Recent increases in concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in lakes and rivers over large regions have been related to both changes in the climate and in atmospheric deposition chemistry. Using a data set of 1041 boreal lakes along a 13° latitudinal gradient, sampled in 1995, 2000, and 2005, and an additional data set of 90 lakes along a 1000-m altitudinal gradient at 68°N, we show that DOC concentrations increase in a nonlinear way along a latitudinal and altitudinal temperature gradient. The nonlinear relation of DOC to increasing temperatures was consistent over space and time. Out of 14 meteorological, catchment, morphometric, and atmospheric deposition variables tested, the variable best explaining this kind of nonlinear pattern was the number of days when air temperatures exceeded 0°C, i.e., the duration of the main growing and runoff season (DT>0). Using DT>0 as an input variable, we were able to predict the nonlinear temperature response of DOC concentrations, both spatially (R2 = 0.90, p < 0.0001) and temporally (R2 = 0.90, p < 0.0001). DT>0 has an advantage over other variables because it includes the time factor, which is decisive for the duration that biogeochemical processes can take place. We suggest that DOC concentrations in lakes are influenced by climate change and that present temperature increases over Sweden result in an accelerated DOC increase toward warmer geographical regions.

Recent increases in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in surface waters across both Europe and North America have focused attention on the factors controlling the export of DOC compounds from catchments. Waters containing high concentrations of DOC generally have a characteristic brown colour and are associated with the presence of highly organic soils. Catchments dominated by these soils typically export between 10 and 300 kg DOC ha−1 year−1 (Billett et al., 2004; Laudon et al., 2004; Jonsson et al., 2006). A portion of this DOC is mineralised in streams and lakes to CO2, while the remainder is transported to the sea (Jonsson et al., 2006). Organic matter accumulates in soils when decomposition rates are restricted either by low temperatures or water-logged conditions. In Europe organic soils are found mainly in colder, wetter

[1] We analyzed 120 years long time series of air temperature and precipitation from 29 respective 44 sites distributed all over Sweden and determined abrupt changes by using three methods. For air temperature we found significant changes in 1930 and 1989 and for precipitation in 1920, 1979, and 1998. Analyzing more than 30 yearlong time series of ice cover (333 sites), discharge and watercourses chemistry (87 sites), we observed abrupt changes in 1977, 1989, and 1998 for discharge but first in 1998 for watercourses chemistry, most pronounced for organic matter and sulfate concentrations. We suggest that the abrupt increase in air temperature in 1989 liberated more easily mobilized organic matter in the catchments, which, for water chemistry, was first detected in 1998 as a consequence of increased discharge. We conclude that increases in air temperatures can make ecosystems more sensitive to further changes in precipitation.

Recent studies have highlighted the impact of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on water temperature, ice conditions, and spring plankton phenology in specific lakes and regions in Europe. Here, we use meta-analysis techniques to test whether 18 lakes in northern, western, and central Europe respond coherently to winter climate forcing, and to assess the persistence of the winter climate signal in physical, chemical, and biological variables during the year. A meta-analysis approach was chosen because we wished to emphasize the overall coherence pattern rather than individual lake responses. A particular strength of our approach is that time-series from each of the 18 lakes were subjected to the same robust statistical analysis covering the same 23-year period. Although the strongest overall coherence in response to the winter NAO was exhibited by lake water temperatures, a strong, coherent response was also exhibited by concentrations of soluble reactive phosphorus and soluble reactive silicate, most likely as a result of the coherent response exhibited by the spring phytoplankton bloom. Lake nitrate concentrations showed significant coherence in winter. With the exception of the cyanobacterial biomass in summer, phytoplankton biomass in all seasons was unrelated to the winter NAO. A strong coherence in the abundance of daphnids during spring can most likely be attributed to coherence in daphnid phenology. A strong coherence in the summer abundance of the cyclopoid copepods may have been related to a coherent change in their emergence from resting stages. We discuss the complex nature of the potential mechanisms that drive the observed changes.

We determined relative nitrate-nitrogen (NO3- N) loss rates in 100 north-mid-European lakes from late spring to summer by using the exponential function N-2 5 N-1e(-k)( (t)(2) - (t)(2)), where N-1 and N-2 are NO3- N concentrations at the beginning (t(1)) and the end (t(2)) of the time interval, respectively, and k is the specific NO3- N loss rate. We found that k decreased with increasing lake depth. Adjusting k to the lake depth (k(adj)), we observed that k(adj) was positively related to spring NO3-N concentrations, but this relationship became insignificant at mean lake depths exceeding 12.5 m. A relationship between k(adj) and spring NO3- N concentrations in lakes shallower than 12.5 m implies that changes in spring NO3-N concentrations influence the NO3- N loss rate and thereby summer NO3- N concentrations. Time series from one Estonian, one German, and 14 Swedish lakes shallower than 12.5 m since 1988 revealed that May to August NO3-N concentrations have decreased over time everywhere, and the number of time periods exhibiting a NO3-N depleted condition, i.e., NO3-N levels below 10 mu g L-1, in these lakes has tripled since 1988. We explained the decreasing NO3-N concentrations by a reduction in external nitrogen loading including atmospheric deposition, and by changes in climate. The observed prolongation of NO3- N depleted conditions might be one possible explanation for the increasing occurrence of nitrogen- fixing cyanobacteria in a variety of lake ecosystems.

A uniquely comprehensive set of four decades of ice breakup data from 196 Swedish lakes covering 13degrees of latitude (55.7degrees N to 68.4degrees N) shows the relationship between the timing of lake ice breakup and air temperature to be an arc cosine function. The nonlinearity inherent in this relationship results in marked differences in the response of the timing of lake ice breakup to changes in air temperature between colder and warmer geographical regions, and between colder and warmer time periods. The spatial and temporal patterns are mutually consistent, suggesting that climate change impacts on the timing of lake ice breakup will vary along a temperature gradient. This has potentially important ramifications for the employment of lake ice phenologies as climate indicators and for the future behavior of lacustrine ecosystems

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is commonly presented as an easy and reliable index that can be used to study climatic effects on aquatic ecosystems. Here, the NAO winter index (NAO(w)) was applied to determine effects of winter climate changes on 13 water chemical variables measured monthly at 16 sites in Sweden's three largest lakes (Vanern, Vattern, and Malaren). The NAO(w) strongly affected meteorological, physical, and consequently also chemical conditions. Significant relationships were numerous in Sweden's three largest lakes, but they exhibited little agreement among lakes and even across a lake. Synchronous relationships between the NAO(w) and water chemistry among lake sites were restricted to variables closely linked to surface-water temperature (i.e., reactive silica and pH in May). The weaker the association of a lake variable with water temperature, the weaker the mean NAO(w) signal on the variable over the 16 lake sites. The results of this study might facilitate the prediction of lake ecosystem responses to future changes in the weather over a large region.

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) affects the physics, hydrology, chemistry and biology of freshwater ecosystems over a large part of the Northern Hemis- phere. Physical impacts of the NAO include effects on lake temperature profiles, lake ice phenology, river runoff and lake water levels. These physical and hydrological responses influence the chemistry and biology of fresh waters by affecting the leaching of nutrients from the soil and by altering the distribution of nutrients and oxygen in lakes. Finally, the population dynamics of freshwater organisms on several trophic levels including autotrophs, herbivores and vertebrate predators are directly and indirectly linked to the NAO via food-web interactions. As a result, the effects of mild winters associated with the positive index phase of the NAO can influence the food-web characteristics of lakes in summer. A considerable body of evidence documents the importance of these indirect and food-web mediated effects of the NAO, which might even result in ecosystem regime shifts. Owing to the large-scale impact of the NAO, lakes exhibit spatial coherence over large areas with respect to both physical and biological properties. This coherence is modified by geographical factors such as altitude and latitude, and by lake-specific characteristics such as depth and trophic status.

Winters in Sweden have become warmer in the 1990s, and as a consequence the timing of ice break-up and the growth and decline of spring phytoplankton has shifted, starting earlier. Even spring temperatures have become warmer, leading to an earlier beginning of the summer phytoplankton growth. The spring-ward shift in phytoplankton population growth has resulted in an extension of the growing season by at least one month. Although mean total phytoplankton biomass from May to October has not increased, the spring and early summer biomass of temperature-sensitive phytoplankton groups, such as cyanobacteria and chlorophytes, has increased in the 1990s. No increase was noted for other phytoplankton groups. Considering that some species of cyanobacteria that commonly occur during a summer bloom, such as Anabaena, Aphanizomenon, and Microcystis, can be toxic, the effect of warmer winters on aquatic ecosystems is potentially far-reaching.

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a regional weather pattern that can be quantified by differences in sea-level pressure measured at stations close to the centres of the Azores High and the Iceland Low (HURRELL 1995). Recent studies show that, especially in winter, changes in the temperature regime (e.g. PLAUDT et al. 1995), snowfall (BENISTON 1997), west wind stress (ROGERS 1997) and the timing of lake ice break-up (LIVINGSTONE 2000) are related to the NAO in countries surrounding the North Atlantic. In this study, phytoplankton has been chosen to demonstrate the effects of a change in the NAO, and thereby changes in the winter climate, on pelagic ecosystems. The phytoplankton community is an ideal sentinel of changes in climatic conditions because it is dominated by short-lived organisms that respond rapidly to changes in the weather (CATALAN & FEE 1994). It is hypothesised that a change in the NAO has an effect on phytoplankton that is similar in time and magnitude in European lakes.

Particle settling flux in the upper and lower water column, measured with cylindrical sediment traps in 11 Swedish and nine Swiss lakes showed high temporal and spatial variability within and among lakes, ranging from 0.1 to 385 g m(-2) day(-1). Such high variability reflects the large differences in lake morphology and trophic state. However, despite these differences, the particle flux variability followed a consistent pattern resulting in a significant relationship between minimum, mean and maximum particle flux. The mean particle flux is significantly related to the dynamic ratio (square root of area divided by mean depth) of the lake, provided that the lake is shallow (mean lake depthor = 9 m), its dynamic ratio isor = 0.15 and allochthonous particulate matter input isor = 10%. In such lakes, typically found in Sweden, the described relationships may be used to predict the variability of particle settling flux without developing complicated models.

A strong relationship (r > 0.99) between settling particulate inorganic matter (SPIM) and total settling particulate matter (SPM) was observed in 315 samples from sedimentation traps in two Swedish lakes, Lake Erken and Lake Limmaren. This relationship can be used to distinguish between different sources of SPM in pelagic systems when the inflow of allochthonous particulate matter is negligible. It is possible to quantify the proportion of material from planktonic production as well as from sediment resuspension in the flux of settling or suspended particulate matter. Furthermore, fluxes of resuspended organic particles can be quantified and distinguished from fluxes of planktonic organic particles. Although Lake Erken and Lake Limmaren are quite different with respect to trophic level, lake surface area and water depth, the estimated proportion of resuspended particles in sedimentation traps was similar in both lakes. Resuspended particulate matter ranged from 35% of the total settling particulate matter up to 99%, with annual means of 83-94%. Moreover, for both lakes it was estimated that, even in epilimnetic traps, only 2046% (annual means) of the total organic settling particulate matter was from planktonic production, whereas 54-80% (annual means) was from sediment resuspension. This is likely to have important consequences for fluxes of nutrients and contaminants.

Many boreal waters are currently becoming browner with effects on biodiversity, fish production, biogeochemical processes and drinking water quality. The question arises whether and at which speed this browning will continue under future climate change. To answer the question we predicted the absorbance (a(420)) in 6347 lakes and streams of the boreal region under future climate change. For the prediction we modified a numerical model for a(420) spatial variation which we tested on a temporal scale by simulating a(420) inter-annual variation in 48 out of the 6347 Swedish waters. We observed that inter-annual a(420) variation is strongly driven by precipitation that controls the water flushing through the landscape. Using the predicted worst case climate scenario for Sweden until 2030, i.e., a 32 % precipitation increase, and assuming a 10 % increase in imports of colored substances into headwaters but no change in land-cover, we predict that a(420) in the 6347 lakes and streams will, in the worst case, increase by factors between 1.1 and 7.6 with a median of 1.3. This increase implies that a(420) will rise from the present 0.1-86 m(-1) (median: 7.3 m(-1)) in the 6347 waters to 0.1-154 m(-1) (median: 10.1 m(-1)), which can cause problems for the preparation of drinking water in a variety of waters. Our model approach clearly demonstrates that a homogenous precipitation increase results in very heterogeneous a(420) changes, where lakes with a long-term mean landscape water retention time between 1 and 3 years are particularly vulnerable to climate change induced browning. Since these lake types are quite often used as drinking water resources, preparedness is needed for such waters.

Lakes (including reservoirs) are an important component of the global carbon (C) cycle, as acknowledged by the fifth assessment report of the IPCC. In the context of lakes, the boreal region is disproportionately important contributing to 27% of the worldwide lake area, despite representing just 14% of global land surface area. In this study, we used a statistical approach to derive a prediction equation for the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2 ) in lakes as a function of lake area, terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP), and precipitation (r2 = .56), and to create the first high-resolution, circumboreal map (0.5°) of lake pCO2 . The map of pCO2 was combined with lake area from the recently published GLOWABO database and three different estimates of the gas transfer velocity k to produce a resulting map of CO2 evasion (FCO2 ). For the boreal region, we estimate an average, lake area weighted, pCO2 of 966 (678-1,325) μatm and a total FCO2 of 189 (74-347) Tg C year-1 , and evaluate the corresponding uncertainties based on Monte Carlo simulation. Our estimate of FCO2 is approximately twofold greater than previous estimates, as a result of methodological and data source differences. We use our results along with published estimates of the other C fluxes through inland waters to derive a C budget for the boreal region, and find that FCO2 from lakes is the most significant flux of the land-ocean aquatic continuum, and of a similar magnitude as emissions from forest fires. Using the model and applying it to spatially resolved projections of terrestrial NPP and precipitation while keeping everything else constant, we predict a 107% increase in boreal lake FCO2 under emission scenario RCP8.5 by 2100. Our projections are largely driven by increases in terrestrial NPP over the same period, showing the very close connection between the terrestrial and aquatic C cycle.

We explore the role of lakes in carbon cycling and global climate, examine the mechanisms influencing carbon pools and transformations in lakes, and discuss how the metabolism of carbon in the inland waters is likely to change in response to climate. Furthermore, we project changes as global climate change in the abundance and spatial distribution of lakes in the biosphere, and we revise the estimate for the global extent of carbon transformation in inland waters. This synthesis demonstrates that the global annual emissions of carbon dioxide from inland waters to the atmosphere are similar in magnitude to the carbon dioxide uptake by the oceans and that the global burial of organic carbon in inland water sediments exceeds organic carbon sequestration on the ocean floor. The role of inland waters in global carbon cycling and climate forcing may be changed by human activities, including construction of impoundments, which accumulate large amounts of carbon in sediments and emit large amounts of methane to the atmosphere. Methane emissions are also expected from lakes on melting permafrost. The synthesis presented here indicates that (1) inland waters constitute a significant component of the global carbon cycle, (2) their contribution to this cycle has significantly changed as a result of human activities, and (3) they will continue to change in response to future climate change causing decreased as well as increased abundance of lakes as well as increases in the number of aquatic impoundments.