101. An information-theoretic approach for the evaluation of surrogate endpoints based on causal inference.
- Author
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Alonso A, Van der Elst W, Molenberghs G, Buyse M, and Burzykowski T
- Subjects
- Causality, Computer Simulation, Glaucoma diagnosis, Humans, Monte Carlo Method, Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic, Biomarkers, Data Interpretation, Statistical, Endpoint Determination statistics & numerical data, Models, Statistical
- Abstract
In this work a new metric of surrogacy, the so-called individual causal association (ICA), is introduced using information-theoretic concepts and a causal inference model for a binary surrogate and true endpoint. The ICA has a simple and appealing interpretation in terms of uncertainty reduction and, in some scenarios, it seems to provide a more coherent assessment of the validity of a surrogate than existing measures. The identifiability issues are tackled using a two-step procedure. In the first step, the region of the parametric space of the distribution of the potential outcomes, compatible with the data at hand, is geometrically characterized. Further, in a second step, a Monte Carlo approach is proposed to study the behavior of the ICA on the previous region. The method is illustrated using data from the Collaborative Initial Glaucoma Treatment Study. A newly developed and user-friendly R package Surrogate is provided to carry out the evaluation exercise., (© 2016, The International Biometric Society.)
- Published
- 2016
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