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The base excision repair protein, MUTYH, functionally interacts with the DNA mismatch repair (MMR) system. As genetic testing moves from testing one gene at a time, to gene panel and whole exome next generation sequencing approaches, understandin g the risk associated with co-existence of germline mutations in these genes will be important for clinical interpretation and management. From the Colon Cancer Family Registry, we identified 10 carriers who had both a MUTYH mutation (6 with c.1187G>A p.(Gly396Asp), 3 with c.821G>A p.(Arg274Gln), and 1 with c.536A>G p.(Tyr179Cys)) and a MMR gene mutation (3 in MLH1, 6 in MSH2, and 1 in PMS2), 375 carriers of a single (monoallelic) MUTYH mutation alone, and 469 carriers of a MMR gene mutation alone. Of the 10 carriers of both gene mutations, 8 were diagnosed with colorectal cancer. Using a weighted cohort analysis, we estimated that risk of colorectal cancer for carriers of both a MUTYH and a MMR gene mutation was substantially higher than that for carriers of a MUTYH mutation alone [hazard ratio (HR) 21.5, 95% confidence interval (CI) 9.19-50.1; p < 0.001], but not different from that for carriers of a MMR gene mutation alone (HR 1.94, 95% CI 0.63-5.99; p = 0.25). Within the limited power of this study, there was no evidence that a monoallelic MUTYH gene mutation confers additional risk of colorectal cancer for carriers of a MMR gene mutation alone. Our finding suggests MUTYH mutation testing in MMR gene mutation carriers is not clinically informative.

Carriers of germline mutations in DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genes are at increased risk of several cancers including colorectal and gynecologic cancers (Lynch syndrome). There is no substantial evidence that these mutations are associated with an increased risk of cervical cancer. A total of 369 families with at least one carrier of a mutation in a MMR gene (133 MLH1, 174 MSH2, 35 MSH6 and 27 PMS2) were ascertained via population cancer registries or via family cancer clinics in Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and USA. Personal and family histories of cancer were obtained from participant interviews. Modified segregation analysis was used to estimate the hazard ratio (incidence rates for carriers relative to those for the general population), and age-specific cumulative risks of cervical cancer for carriers. A total of 65 cases of cervical cancer were reported (including 10 verified by pathology reports). The estimated incidence was 5.6 fold (95% CI: 2.3-13.8; p = 0.001) higher for carriers than for the general population with a corresponding cumulative risk to 80 years of 4.5% (95% CI: 1.9-10.7%) compared with 0.8% for the general population. The mean age at diagnosis was 43.1 years (95% CI: 40.0-46.2), 3.9 years younger than the reported USA population mean of 47.0 years (p = 0.02). Women with MMR gene mutations were found to have an increased risk of cervical cancer. Due to limited pathology verification we cannot be certain that a proportion of these cases were not lower uterine segment endometrial cancers involving the endocervix, a recognized cancer of Lynch syndrome., (© 2015 UICC.)

The average age-specific cumulative risk (penetrance) of breast cancer has been studied for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers living in Western countries, but not for those living in East Asian countries where the population breast cancer incidence is lower. From 2007 to 2011, the Korean Hereditary Breast Cancer study identified 151 BRCA1 and 225 BRCA2 mutation-carrying families from family cancer clinics. We estimated the hazard ratio (HR) for female carriers relative to the population, and hence the penetrance, using a modified segregation analysis of cancer family histories conditioned on ascertainment. The breast cancer HR estimates [95 % confidence interval (CI)] for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers were 18 (3-103) and 11 (5-27), respectively. The breast cancer penetrance estimates (95 % CI) to age 70 years were 49 % (11-98) and 35 % (16-65) for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers, respectively. The breast cancer HR and penetrance estimates were similar for Korean and Western women (all P > 0.4). The point estimates of breast cancer penetrance were similar to age 50 years, though less for Korean carriers at older ages. Breast cancer risk for Korean and Western mutation carriers might reflect underlying population risks which in turn likely reflect differences in environmental and lifestyle factors. This raises the possibility of identifying modifiers of cancer risk for carriers with implications for prevention.

Background: Few studies have examined the familial aggregation of melanoma or its co-aggregation with other cancers using whole-population based designs. This study aimed to investigate aggregation patterns in young Western Australian families, using population-based linked health data to identify individuals born in Western Australia between 1974 and 2007, their known relatives, and all incident cancer diagnoses within the resulting 1,506,961 individuals., Methods: Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to compare the risk of melanoma for first-degree relatives of melanoma cases to that for first-degree relatives of controls, with bootstrapping used to account for correlations within families. The risk of (i) developing melanoma based on the number of first-degree relatives with other cancers, and (ii) developing non-melanoma cancers based on the number of first-degree relatives diagnosed with melanoma was also investigated., Results: First-degree relatives of melanoma cases had a significantly greater incidence of melanoma than first-degree relatives of individuals not affected with melanoma (Hazard Ratio (HR)=3.58, 95% bootstrap confidence interval (CI): 2.43-5.43). Sensitivity analyses produced a higher hazard ratio estimate when restricted to melanoma cases diagnosed before 40 years of age (HR=3.77, bootstrap 95% CI: 2.49-6.39) and a lower estimate when only later-onset cases (>40 years) were considered (HR=2.45, bootstrap 95% CI: 1.23-4.82). No significant evidence was found for co-aggregation between melanoma and any other cancers., Conclusions: Results indicated a strong familial basis of melanoma, with the higher than expected hazard ratio observed likely to reflect early-age at onset cases in this young cohort, supported by the results of the sensitivity analyses. Exploratory analyses suggested that the determinants of melanoma causing the observed aggregation within families may be independent of other malignancies, although these analyses were limited by the young age of the sample. Determining familial aggregation patterns will provide valuable knowledge regarding improved clinical risk prediction and the underlying biological mechanisms of melanoma and other cancers., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Purpose: For carriers of germline mutations in DNA mismatch repair genes, the most relevant statistic for cancer prevention is colorectal cancer (Lynch syndrome) risk, particularly in the short term., Methods: We conducted a meta-analysis of all independent published Lynch syndrome studies reporting age- and sex-dependent colorectal cancer risks. We estimated 5-year colorectal cancer risk over different age groups, separately for male and female mutation carriers, and number needed to screen to prevent one death., Results: We pooled estimates from analyses of 1,114 Lynch syndrome families (508 with MLH1 mutations and 606 with MSH2 mutations). On average, one in 71 male and one in 102 female MLH1 or MSH2 mutation carriers in their 20s will be diagnosed with colorectal cancer in the next 5 years. These colorectal cancer risks increase with age, peaking in the 50s (one in seven males and one in 12 females), and then decrease with age (one in 13 males and one in 19 females in their 70s). Annual colonoscopy in 16 males or 25 females in their 50s would prevent one death from colorectal cancer over 5 years while resulting in almost no serious complications. In comparison, annual colonoscopy in 155 males or 217 females in their 20s would prevent one death while resulting in approximately one serious complication., Conclusion: For MLH1 or MSH2 mutation carriers, current guidelines recommend colonoscopy every 1 to 2 years starting in their 20s. Our findings support this regimen from age 30 years; however, it might not be justifiable for carriers who are in their 20s., (© 2014 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.)

Objective: To estimate risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) for first-degree relatives of CRC cases based on CRC molecular subtypes and tumour pathology features., Design: We studied a cohort of 33,496 first-degree relatives of 4853 incident invasive CRC cases (probands) who were recruited to the Colon Cancer Family Registry through population cancer registries in the USA, Canada and Australia. We categorised the first-degree relatives into four groups: 28,156 of 4095 mismatch repair (MMR)-proficient probands, 2302 of 301 MMR-deficient non-Lynch syndrome probands, 1799 of 271 suspected Lynch syndrome probands and 1239 of 186 Lynch syndrome probands. We compared CRC risk for first-degree relatives stratified by the absence or presence of specific tumour molecular pathology features in probands across each of these four groups and for all groups combined., Results: Compared with first-degree relatives of MMR-proficient CRC cases, a higher risk of CRC was estimated for first-degree relatives of CRC cases with suspected Lynch syndrome (HR 2.06, 95% CI 1.59 to 2.67) and with Lynch syndrome (HR 5.37, 95% CI 4.16 to 6.94), but not with MMR-deficient non-Lynch syndrome (HR 1.04, 95% CI 0.82 to 1.31). A greater risk of CRC was estimated for first-degree relatives if CRC cases were diagnosed before age 50 years, had proximal colon cancer or if their tumours had any of the following: expanding tumour margin, peritumoral lymphocytes, tumour-infiltrating lymphocytes or synchronous CRC., Conclusions: Molecular pathology features are potentially useful to refine screening recommendations for first-degree relatives of CRC cases and to identify which cases are more likely to be caused by genetic or other familial factors., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.)

Ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) lesions are non-invasive tumours of the breast that are thought to precede most invasive breast cancers (IBCs). As individual DCIS lesions are initiated, grow and invade (i.e. become IBC), the size distribution of the DCIS lesions present in a given human population will evolve. We derive a differential equation governing this evolution and show, for given assumptions about growth and invasion, that there is a unique distribution which does not vary with time. Further, we show that any initial distribution converges to this stationary distribution exponentially quickly. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that the stationary distribution governs the size of DCIS lesions in human populations which are relatively stable with respect to the determinants of breast cancer. Based on this assumption and the size data of 110 DCIS lesions detected in a mammographic screening programme between 1993 and 2000, we produce maximum likelihood estimates for certain growth and invasion parameters. Assuming that DCIS size is proportional to a positive power p of the time since tumour initiation, we estimate p to be 0.50 with a 95% confidence interval of (0.35, 0.71). Therefore, we estimate that DCIS lesions follow a square-root growth law and hence that they grow rapidly when small and relatively slowly when large. Our approach and results should be useful for other mathematical studies of cancer, especially those investigating biological mechanisms of invasion., (© The Authors 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications. All rights reserved.)

We studied 2332 individuals with monoallelic mutations in MUTYH among 9504 relatives of 264 colorectal cancer (CRC) cases with a MUTYH mutation. We estimated CRC risks through 70 years of age of 7.2% for male carriers of monoallelic mutations (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.6%-11.3%) and 5.6% for female carriers of monoallelic mutations (95% CI, 3.6%-8.8%), irrespective of family history. For monoallelic MUTYH mutation carriers with a first-degree relative with CRC diagnosed by 50 years of age who does not have the MUTYH mutation, risks of CRC were 12.5% for men (95% CI, 8.6%-17.7%) and 10% for women (95% CI, 6.7%-14.4%). Risks of CRC for carriers of monoallelic mutations in MUTYH with a first-degree relative with CRC are sufficiently high to warrant more intensive screening than for the general population., (Copyright © 2014 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Sequence-based testing of disease-susceptibility genes has identified many variants of unknown significance (VUSs) whose pathogenicity is unknown at the time of their measurement. Female breast cancer cases aged 20-49 years at diagnosis and who have VUSs in BRCA1 and no mutations in BRCA2 have previously been identified through the population-based Los Angeles County Cancer Surveillance Program. These nominal BRCA1 VUSs have been classified as "low," "medium," and "high" risk by four classification methods: Align-GVGD, Polyphen, Grantham matrix scores, and sequence conservation in mammalian species. Average hazard ratios (HRs) for classes of variants, i.e., the age-specific incidences of cancer for carriers of such variants divided by the population incidences, were estimated from the cancer family histories of first- and second-degree relatives of the index cases using modified segregation analysis. The study sample comprised 270 index cases and 4,543 of their relatives. There was weak evidence that the risk of breast cancer increases with the degree of sequence conservation (P = 0.03) and that missense variants at highly conserved sites are associated with a 5.6-fold (95 % confidence interval 1.4-22.2; P = 0.05) increased incidence of breast cancer. An upper bound of 2.3 is given for the average breast cancer HRs corresponding to variants classified as "low risk" by any of the four VUS classification methods. In summary, we have given a method to estimate cancer risks for groups of VUSs by combining existing classification methods with traditional penetrance analyses. This analysis suggests that classification methods for BRCA1 variants based on sequence conservation might be useful in a clinical setting. We have shown in principle that our method can be used to classify VUSs into clinically useful risk categories, but our specific findings should not be put into clinical practice unless confirmed by larger studies.

One of the strongest predictors of colorectal cancer risk is carrying a germline mutation in a DNA mismatch repair (MMR) gene. Once identified, mutation carriers can be recommended for intensive screening that will substantially reduce their high colorectal cancer risk. Conversely, the relatives of carriers identified as non-carriers can be relieved of the burden of intensive screening. Criteria and prediction models that identify likely mutation carriers are needed for cost-effective, targeted, germline testing for MMR gene mutation. We reviewed 12 criteria/guidelines and 8 prediction models (Leiden, Amsterdam-plus, Amsterdam-alternative, MMRpro, PREMM1,2,6, MMRpredict, Associazione Italiana per lo studio della Familiarità ed Ereditarietà dei tumori Gastrointestinali (AIFEG) and the Myriad Genetics Prevalence table) for identifying mutation carriers. While criteria are only used to identify individuals with colorectal cancer (yes/no for screening followed by germline testing), all prediction models except MMRpredict and Myriad tables can predict the probability of carrying mutations for individuals with or without colorectal cancer. We conducted a meta-analysis of the discrimination performance of 17 studies that validated the prediction models. The pooled estimate for the area under curve was 0.80 (95% CI 0.72 to 0.88) for MMRpro, 0.81 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.88) for MMRpredict, 0.84 (95% CI 0.81 to 0.88) for PREMM, and 0.85 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.91) for Leiden model. Given the high degree of overlap in the CIs, we cannot state that one model has a higher discrimination than any of the others. Overall, the existing statistical models have been shown to be sensitive and specific (at a 5% cut-off) in predicting MMR gene mutation carriers. Future models may need to: provide prediction of PMS2 mutations, take into account a wider range of Lynch syndrome-associated cancers when assessing family history, and be applicable to all people irrespective of any cancer diagnosis.

Background: Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm (BOADICEA) is a risk prediction algorithm that can be used to compute estimates of age-specific risk of breast cancer. It is uncertain whether BOADICEA performs adequately for populations outside the United Kingdom., Methods: Using a batch mode version of BOADICEA that we developed (BOADICEACentre), we calculated the cumulative 10-year invasive breast cancer risk for 4176 Australian women of European ancestry unaffected at baseline from 1601 case and control families in the Australian Breast Cancer Family Registry. Based on 115 incident breast cancers, we investigated calibration, discrimination (using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves) and accuracy at the individual level., Results: The ratio of expected to observed number of breast cancers was 0.92 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.76-1.10). The E/O ratios by subgroups of the participant's relationship to the index case and by the reported number of affected relatives ranged between 0.83 and 0.98 and all 95% CIs included 1.00. The area under the ROC curve was 0.70 (95% CI 0.66-0.75) and there was no evidence of systematic under- or over-dispersion (P=0.2)., Conclusion: BOADICEA is well calibrated for Australian women, and had good discrimination and accuracy at the individual level.

Background: Population-based studies of breast cancer have estimated that at least some PALB2 mutations are associated with high breast cancer risk. For women carrying PALB2 mutations, knowing their carrier status could be useful in directing them towards effective cancer risk management and therapeutic strategies. We sought to determine whether morphological features of breast tumours can predict PALB2 germline mutation status., Methods: Systematic pathology review was conducted on breast tumours from 28 female carriers of PALB2 mutations (non-carriers of other known high-risk mutations, recruited through various resources with varying ascertainment) and on breast tumours from a population-based sample of 828 Australian women diagnosed before the age of 60 years (which included 40 BRCA1 and 18 BRCA2 mutation carriers). Tumour morphological features of the 28 PALB2 mutation carriers were compared with those of 770 women without high-risk mutations., Results: Tumours arising in PALB2 mutation carriers were associated with minimal sclerosis (odds ratio (OR)=19.7; 95% confidence interval (CI)=6.0-64.6; P=5 × 10(-7)). Minimal sclerosis was also a feature that distinguished PALB2 mutation carriers from BRCA1 (P=0.05) and BRCA2 (P=0.04) mutation carriers., Conclusion: This study identified minimal sclerosis to be a predictor of germline PALB2 mutation status. Morphological review can therefore facilitate the identification of women most likely to carry mutations in PALB2.

It has been shown that, for women aged 50 years or older, the discriminatory accuracy of the Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Tool (BCRAT) can be modestly improved by the inclusion of information on common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are associated with increased breast cancer risk. We aimed to determine whether a similar improvement is seen for earlier onset disease. We used the Australian Breast Cancer Family Registry to study a population-based sample of 962 cases aged 35-59 years, and 463 controls frequency matched for age and for whom genotyping data was available. Overall, the inclusion of data on seven SNPs improved the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) from 0.58 (95 % confidence interval [CI] 0.55-0.61) for BCRAT alone to 0.61 (95 % CI 0.58-0.64) for BCRAT and SNP data combined (p < 0.001). For women aged 35-39 years at interview, the corresponding improvement in AUC was from 0.61 (95 % CI 0.56-0.66) to 0.65 (95 % CI 0.60-0.70; p = 0.03), while for women aged 40-49 years at diagnosis, the AUC improved from 0.61 (95 % CI 0.55-0.66) to 0.63 (95 % CI 0.57-0.69; p = 0.04). Using previously used classifications of low, intermediate and high risk, 2.1 % of cases and none of the controls aged 35-39 years, and 10.9 % of cases and 4.0 % of controls aged 40-49 years were classified into a higher risk group. Including information on seven SNPs associated with breast cancer risk, improves the discriminatory accuracy of BCRAT for women aged 35-39 years and 40-49 years. Given, the low absolute risk for women in these age groups, only a small proportion are reclassified into a higher category for predicted 5-year risk of breast cancer.

Objective: To assess the cancer risk in children and adolescents following exposure to low dose ionising radiation from diagnostic computed tomography (CT) scans., Design: Population based, cohort, data linkage study in Australia. COHORT MEMBERS: 10.9 million people identified from Australian Medicare records, aged 0-19 years on 1 January 1985 or born between 1 January 1985 and 31 December 2005; all exposures to CT scans funded by Medicare during 1985-2005 were identified for this cohort. Cancers diagnosed in cohort members up to 31 December 2007 were obtained through linkage to national cancer records., Main Outcome: Cancer incidence rates in individuals exposed to a CT scan more than one year before any cancer diagnosis, compared with cancer incidence rates in unexposed individuals., Results: 60,674 cancers were recorded, including 3150 in 680,211 people exposed to a CT scan at least one year before any cancer diagnosis. The mean duration of follow-up after exposure was 9.5 years. Overall cancer incidence was 24% greater for exposed than for unexposed people, after accounting for age, sex, and year of birth (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.24 (95% confidence interval 1.20 to 1.29); P<0.001). We saw a dose-response relation, and the IRR increased by 0.16 (0.13 to 0.19) for each additional CT scan. The IRR was greater after exposure at younger ages (P<0.001 for trend). At 1-4, 5-9, 10-14, and 15 or more years since first exposure, IRRs were 1.35 (1.25 to 1.45), 1.25 (1.17 to 1.34), 1.14 (1.06 to 1.22), and 1.24 (1.14 to 1.34), respectively. The IRR increased significantly for many types of solid cancer (digestive organs, melanoma, soft tissue, female genital, urinary tract, brain, and thyroid); leukaemia, myelodysplasia, and some other lymphoid cancers. There was an excess of 608 cancers in people exposed to CT scans (147 brain, 356 other solid, 48 leukaemia or myelodysplasia, and 57 other lymphoid). The absolute excess incidence rate for all cancers combined was 9.38 per 100,000 person years at risk, as of 31 December 2007. The average effective radiation dose per scan was estimated as 4.5 mSv., Conclusions: The increased incidence of cancer after CT scan exposure in this cohort was mostly due to irradiation. Because the cancer excess was still continuing at the end of follow-up, the eventual lifetime risk from CT scans cannot yet be determined. Radiation doses from contemporary CT scans are likely to be lower than those in 1985-2005, but some increase in cancer risk is still likely from current scans. Future CT scans should be limited to situations where there is a definite clinical indication, with every scan optimised to provide a diagnostic CT image at the lowest possible radiation dose.

Background: Genome-wide association studies have identified at least 15 independent common genetic variants associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. The aim of this study was to investigate whether 11 of these variants are associated with CRC risk for carriers of germline mutations in DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genes., Methods: A total of 927 MMR gene mutation carriers (360 MLH1, 442 MSH2, 85 MSH6 and 40 PMS2) from 315 families enrolled in the Colon Cancer Family Registry, were genotyped for the single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs): rs16892766 (8q23.3), rs6983267 (8q24.21), rs719725 (9p24), rs10795668 (10p14), rs3802842 (11q23.1), rs4444235 (14q22.2), rs4779584 (15q13.3), rs9929218 (16q22.1), rs4939827 (18q21.1), rs10411210 (19q13.1) and rs961253 (20p12.3). We used a weighted Cox regression to estimate CRC risk for homozygous and heterozygous carriers of the risk allele compared with homozygous non-carriers as well as for an additive per allele model (on the log scale)., Results: Over a total of 40,978 person-years observation, 426 (46%) carriers were diagnosed with CRC at a mean age of 44.3 years. For all carriers combined, we found no evidence of an association between CRC risk and the total number of risk alleles (hazard ratio [HR] per risk allele=0.97, 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.88-1.07, p=0.52)., Conclusions: We found no evidence that the SNPs associated with CRC in the general population are modifiers of the risk for MMR gene mutation carriers overall, and therefore any evidence of proven clinical utility in Lynch syndrome., (Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

We studied 17,576 members of 166 MLH1 and 224 MSH2 mutation-carrying families from the Colon Cancer Family Registry. Average cumulative risks of colorectal cancer (CRC), endometrial cancer (EC), and other cancers for carriers were estimated using modified segregation analysis conditioned on ascertainment criteria. Heterogeneity in risks was investigated using a polygenic risk modifier. Average CRC cumulative risks at the age of 70 years (95% confidence intervals) for MLH1 and MSH2 mutation carriers, respectively, were estimated to be 34% (25%-50%) and 47% (36%-60%) for male carriers and 36% (25%-51%) and 37% (27%-50%) for female carriers. Corresponding EC risks were 18% (9.1%-34%) and 30% (18%-45%). A high level of CRC risk heterogeneity was observed (P < 0.001), with cumulative risks at the age of 70 years estimated to follow U-shaped distributions. For example, 17% of male MSH2 mutation carriers have estimated lifetime risks of 0%-10% and 18% have risks of 90%-100%. Therefore, average risks are similar for the two genes but there is so much individual variation about the average that large proportions of carriers have either very low or very high lifetime cancer risks. Our estimates of CRC and EC cumulative risks for MLH1 and MSH2 mutation carriers are the most precise currently available., (© 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

Introduction: Population-based studies of breast cancer have estimated that some PALB2 mutations confer a breast cancer risk (penetrance) comparable to the average pathogenic mutation in BRCA2. As this risk is of clinical relevance, we sought to identify mono-allelic PALB2 mutations and determine their frequencies in multiple-case breast cancer families attending Familial Cancer Clinics in Australia and New Zealand., Methods: The youngest affected woman, not known to carry a mutation in BRCA1 or BRCA2, from 747 multiple-case breast cancer families participating in kConFab were selected for PALB2 mutation screening. The coding and flanking intronic regions of PALB2 in DNA extracted from blood were screened using high-resolution melt curve analysis with Sanger sequencing confirmation. Where possible, relatives of women found to carry PALB2 mutations were genotyped for the family-specific mutation, mutant transcripts were characterised and breast tumours arising in mutation carriers were recalled and reviewed. Missense mutations were assessed for potential to disrupt protein function via SIFT, Align GVGD and Polyphen-2., Results: The mutation screen identified two nonsense mutations (PALB2 c.3113G>A in eight women and PALB2 c.196C>T in one woman), two frameshift mutations (PALB2 c.1947&#95;1948insA and PALB2 c.2982&#95;2983insT each in one woman), 10 missense variants, eight synonymous variants and four variants in intronic regions. Of the four PALB2 mutations identified that were predicted to produce truncated protein products, only PALB2 c.1947&#95;1948insA had not previously been reported. PALB2 c.3113G>A and PALB2 c.196C>T were previously identified in the Australian population whereas PALB2 c.2982&#95;2983insT was previously reported in the UK population. Transcripts derived from three of these mutant PALB2 alleles were vulnerable to nonsense-mediated decay. One missense mutation (PALB2 c.2993G>A) was predicted to disrupt protein function via the three in silico assessment methods applied. The majority of breast cancers arising in carriers that were available for review were high-grade invasive ductal carcinomas., Conclusions: About 1.5% (95% CI 0.6to 2.4) of Australasian multiple-case breast cancer families attending clinics are segregating protein-truncating mutations in PALB2, most being PALB2 c.3113G>A, p.Trp1038*. Given the prevalence, breast cancer risk, and tumour grade associated with this mutation, consideration of clinical PALB2 testing is warranted.

The HOXB13 missense mutation G84E (rs138213197) is associated with increased risk of prostate cancer, but the current estimate of increased risk has a wide confidence interval (width of 95% confidence interval (CI) >200-fold) so the point estimate of 20-fold increased risk could be misleading. Population-based family studies can be more informative for estimating risks for rare variants, therefore, we screened for mutations in an Australian population-based series of early-onset prostate cancer cases (probands). We found that 19 of 1,384 (1.4%) probands carried the missense mutation, and of these, six (32%) had a family history of prostate cancer. We tested the 22 relatives of carriers diagnosed from 1998 to 2008 for whom we had a DNA sample, and found seven more carriers and one obligate carrier. The age-specific incidence for carriers was estimated to be, on average, 16.4 (95% CI 2.5-107.2) times that for the population over the time frame when the relatives were at risk prior to baseline. We then estimated the age and birth year- specific cumulative risk of prostate cancer (penetrance) for carriers. For example, the penetrance for an unaffected male carrier born in 1950 was 19% (95% CI 5-46%) at age 60 years, 44% (95% CI 18-74%) at age 70 years and 60% (95% CI 30-85%) at age 80 years. Our study has provided a population-based estimate of the average risk of prostate cancer for HOXB13 missense mutation G84E carriers that can be used to guide clinical practice and research. This study has also shown that the majority of hereditary prostate cancers due to the HOXB13 missense mutation are 'sporadic' in the sense that unselected cases with the missense mutation do not typically report having a family history of prostate cancer.

Genes have been identified for which germline mutations are associated with high lifetime risks of breast, colorectal and other cancers. Identification of mutation carriers through genetic testing is important as it could help lower cancer incidence and mortality. The translation of genetic information into better health outcomes is expensive because of the costs of genetic counselling as well as laboratory testing. Approaches to triage for mutation screening of known genes which rely on cancer family history are not necessarily sensitive and specific or the most cost-effective. Recent population-based research has shown that the cancers and precancerous lesions arising in mutation carriers have specific molecular and morphological characteristics. People with colorectal cancer, especially those diagnosed at a young age, whose tumours exhibit microsatellite instability and some specific pathology and immunohistochemically-defined features are more likely to carry a germline mutation in one of four mismatch repair genes. Some morphological and immunohistochemically-defined features are associated with breast cancers arising in women who carry BRCA1 or BRCA2 germline mutations, especially if at a young age. Screening paradigms based on molecular and morphological features that predict mutation status, especially if focused on early-onset disease, have the potential to identify mutation carriers with greater sensitivity and specificity, and in a more cost-effective way, than those based on family history alone. Genetic testing results could help inform treatment if those affected are tested soon after diagnosis using pathology-led selection strategies to identify cases most likely to carry germline mutations. We propose how this new approach could be undertaken by having genetic testing and counselling prioritised to those with the greatest probability of carrying a germline mutation in these known cancer predisposition genes.

Cancer risks for a person who has inherited a MUTYH mutation from only one parent (monoallelic mutation carrier) are uncertain. Using the Colon Cancer Family Registry and Newfoundland Familial Colon Cancer Registry, we identified 2,179 first- and second-degree relatives of 144 incident colorectal cancer (CRC) cases who were monoallelic or biallelic mutation carriers ascertained by sampling population complete cancer registries in the United States, Canada and Australia. Using Cox regression weighted to adjust for sampling on family history, we estimated that the country-, age- and sex-specific standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) for monoallelic mutation carriers, compared to the general population, were: 2.04 (95% confidence interval, CI 1.56-2.70; p < 0.001) for CRC, 3.24 (95%CI 2.18-4.98; p < 0.001) for gastric cancer, 3.09 (95%CI 1.07-12.25; p = 0.07) for liver cancer and 2.33 (95%CI 1.18-5.08; p = 0.02) for endometrial cancer. Age-specific cumulative risks to age 70 years, estimated using the SIRs and US population incidences, were: for CRC, 6% (95%CI 5-8%) for men and 4% (95%CI 3-6%) for women; for gastric cancer, 2% (95%CI 1-3%) for men and 0.7% (95%CI 0.5-1%) for women; for liver cancer, 1% (95%CI 0.3-3%) for men and 0.3% (95%CI 0.1-1%) for women and for endometrial cancer, 4% (95%CI 2-8%). There was no evidence of increased risks for cancers of the brain, pancreas, kidney, lung, breast or prostate. Monoallelic MUTYH mutation carriers with a family history of CRC, such as those identified from screening multiple-case CRC families, are at increased risk of colorectal, gastric, endometrial and possibly liver cancers., (Copyright © 2010 UICC.)

Introduction: The ataxia-telangiectasia mutated (ATM) gene (MIM ID 208900) encodes a protein kinase that plays a significant role in the activation of cellular responses to DNA double-strand breaks through subsequent phosphorylation of central players in the DNA damage-response pathway. Recent studies have confirmed that some specific variants in the ATM gene are associated with increased breast cancer (BC) risk. However, the magnitude of risk and the subset of variants that are pathogenic for breast cancer remain unresolved., Methods: To investigate the role of ATM in BC susceptibility, we studied 76 rare sequence variants in the ATM gene in a case-control family study of 2,570 cases of breast cancer and 1,448 controls. The variants were grouped into three categories based on their likely pathogenicity, as determined by in silico analysis and analyzed by conditional logistic regression. Likely pathogenic sequence variants were genotyped in 129 family members of 27 carrier probands (15 of which carried c.7271T > G), and modified segregation analysis was used to estimate the BC penetrance associated with these rare ATM variants., Results: In the case-control analysis, we observed an odds ratio of 2.55 and 95% confidence interval (CI, 0.54 to 12.0) for the most likely deleterious variants. In the family-based analyses, the maximum-likelihood estimate of the increased risk associated with these variants was hazard ratio (HR) = 6.88 (95% CI, 2.33 to 20.3; P = 0.00008), corresponding to a 60% cumulative risk of BC by age 80 years. Analysis of loss of heterozygosity (LOH) in 18 breast tumors from women carrying likely pathogenic rare sequence variants revealed no consistent pattern of loss of the ATM variant., Conclusions: The risk estimates from this study suggest that women carrying the pathogenic variant, ATM c.7271T > G, or truncating mutations demonstrate a significantly increased risk of breast cancer with a penetrance that appears similar to that conferred by germline mutations in BRCA2.

Background: Carriers of germline mutations in DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genes have a high risk of colorectal cancer (CRC), but the modifiers of this risk are not well established. We estimated an association between body mass index (BMI) in early adulthood and subsequent risk of CRC for carriers and, as a comparison, estimated the association for non-carriers., Methods: A weighted Cox regression was used to analyse height and weight at 20 years reported by 1324 carriers of MMR gene mutations (500 MLH1, 648 MSH2, 117 MSH6 and 59 PMS2) and 1219 non-carriers from the Colon Cancer Family Registry., Results: During 122,304 person-years of observation, we observed diagnoses of CRC for 659 carriers (50%) and 36 non-carriers (3%). For carriers, the risk of CRC increased by 30% for each 5 kg m(-2) increment in BMI in early adulthood (hazard ratio, HR: 1.30; 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.08-1.58; P=0.01), and increased by 64% for non-carriers (HR: 1.64; 95% CI: 1.02-2.64; P=0.04) after adjusting for sex, country, cigarette smoking and alcohol drinking (and the MMR gene that was mutated in carriers). The difference in HRs for carriers and non-carriers was not statistically significant (P=0.50). For MLH1 and PMS2 (MutLα heterodimer) mutation carriers combined, the corresponding increase was 36% (HR: 1.36; 95% CI: 1.05-1.76; P=0.02). For MSH2 and MSH6 (MutSα heterodimer) mutation carriers combined, the HR was 1.26 (95% CI: 0.96-1.65; P=0.09). There was no significant difference between the HRs for MutLα and MutSα heterodimer carriers (P=0.56)., Conclusion: Body mass index in early adulthood is positively associated with risk of CRC for MMR gene mutation carriers and non-carriers.

Background: CDKN2A mutations confer a substantial risk of cutaneous melanoma; however, the magnitude of risk is uncertain., Methods: The study estimated the hazard ratio (HR) and the average age specific cumulative risk (ie, penetrance) of reported melanoma for CDKN2A mutation carriers in case families using a modified segregation analysis of the first and higher degree relatives of 35 population-based cases. The study sample included 223 relatives of 13 melanoma cases diagnosed when aged 18-39 years from Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane, Australia, and 322 relatives of 22 melanoma cases diagnosed at any age from Yorkshire, UK., Results: The estimated HR for melanoma for mutation carriers relative to the general population decreased with regions of increasing ambient ultraviolet (UV) irradiance, being higher for the UK than Australia (87, 95% CI 50 to 153 vs 31, 95% CI 20 to 50, p=0.008), and across Australia, 49 (95% CI 24 to 98) for Melbourne, 44 (95% CI 22 to 88) for Sydney, and 9 (95% CI 2 to 33) for Brisbane (p=0.02). Penetrance did not differ by geographic region. It is estimated that 16% (95% CI 10% to 27%) of UK and 20% (95% CI 13% to 30%) of Australian CDKN2A mutation carriers would be diagnosed with melanoma by age 50 years, and 45% (95% CI 29% to 65%) and 52% (95% CI 37% to 69%), respectively, by age 80 years., Conclusions: Contrary to the strong association between UV radiation exposure and melanoma risk for the general population, CDKN2A mutation carriers appear to have the same cumulative risk of melanoma irrespective of the ambient UV irradiance of the region in which they live.

Objective: To investigate the association of body mass index (BMI) in early adulthood and endometrial cancer risk for carriers of a germline mutation in a DNA mismatch repair gene., Methods: We estimated the association between BMI at age 18-20 years and endometrial cancer risk for mismatch repair gene mutation carriers and, as a comparison group, noncarriers using 601 female carriers of a germline mutation in a mismatch repair gene (245 MLH1, 299 MSH2, 38 MSH6, and 19 PMS2) and 533 female noncarriers from the Colon Cancer Family Registry using a weighted Cox proportional hazards regression., Results: During 51,693 person-years of observation, we observed diagnoses of endometrial cancer for 126 carriers and eight noncarriers. For carriers, there was no evidence of an association between BMI at age 20 years and endometrial cancer (adjusted hazard ratio 0.73 per 5 kg/m²; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.40-1.34; P=.31). For noncarriers, endometrial cancer risk increased by 74% for each 5-kg/m² increment in BMI (adjusted hazard ratio 1.74; 95% CI 1.27-2.37; P<.001). The hazard ratio for BMI and endometrial cancer for noncarriers was greater than for carriers (P=.04)., Conclusion: The effect of body mass on endometrial cancer risk depends on the woman's mismatch repair gene mutation carrier status, suggesting obesity-independent endometrial carcinogenesis for carriers., Level of Evidence: II.

Background: Knowing a young woman with newly diagnosed breast cancer has a germline BRCA1 mutation informs her clinical management and that of her relatives. We sought an optimal strategy for identifying carriers using family history, breast cancer morphology and hormone receptor status data., Methods: We studied a population-based sample of 452 Australian women with invasive breast cancer diagnosed before age 40 years for whom we conducted extensive germline mutation testing (29 carried a BRCA1 mutation) and a systematic pathology review, and collected three-generational family history and tumour ER and PR status. Predictors of mutation status were identified using multiple logistic regression. Areas under receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were estimated using five-fold stratified cross-validation., Results: The probability of being a BRCA1 mutation carrier increased with number of selected histology features even after adjusting for family history and ER and PR status (P<0.0001). From the most parsimonious multivariate model, the odds ratio for being a carrier were: 9.7 (95% confidence interval: 2.6-47.0) for trabecular growth pattern (P=0.001); 7.8 (2.7-25.7) for mitotic index over 50 mitoses per 10 high-powered field (P=0.0003); and 2.7 (1.3-5.9) for each first-degree relative with breast cancer diagnosed before age 60 years (P=0.01).The area under the ROC curve was 0.87 (0.83-0.90)., Conclusion: Pathology review, with attention to a few specific morphological features of invasive breast cancers, can identify almost all BRCA1 germline mutation carriers among women with early-onset breast cancer without taking into account family history.

Genetic diseases associated with dynamic mutations in microsatellite DNA often display parent-of-origin effects (POEs) in which the risk of disease depends on the sex of the parent from whom the disease allele was inherited. Carriers of germline mutations in mismatch repair (MMR) genes have high risks of colorectal carcinoma (CRC). We investigated whether these risks depend on the parent-of-origin of the mutation. We studied 422 subjects, including 89 MMR gene mutation carriers, from 17 population-based families who were each recruited via a CRC case diagnosed before age 45 years and found to carry a MMR gene mutation. The POE hazard ratio (HR(POE)), defined to be the CRC incidence for carriers with maternally derived mutations divided by the corresponding paternal incidence, was estimated using a novel application of modified segregation analysis. HR(POE) (95% confidence interval) was estimated to be 3.2 (1.1-9.8) for males (P = 0.03) and 0.8 (0.2-2.8) for females (P = 0.5) and the corresponding cumulative risks to age 80 years were 88% (54%-100%) for male carriers with maternally derived mutations and 38-48% for all other carriers. If confirmed by larger studies, these results will have important implications for the etiology of CRC and for the clinical management of MMR gene mutation carriers., (© 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.)

Women carrying germline mutations in BRCA1 are at a substantially elevated risk of breast cancer and their tumors typically have distinctive morphologic features. We hypothesized that constitutional methylation of the BRCA1 promoter region could give rise to such breast cancers in women. We selected 255 women diagnosed with breast cancer before the age of 40 years for whom BRCA1 germline mutations had not been identified. Of them, 52 had five or more of nine BRCA1 mutation-associated morphologic features (group 1), 39 had four (group 2), and 164 had three or less (group 3). The prevalence of detectable BRCA1 promoter methylation in peripheral blood DNA decreased from 31% to 10% to 5% across groups 1-3, respectively (P = 0.000002), and was significantly greater than the 4% frequency in unaffected controls (P = 0.004). Peripheral blood methylation was associated with a 3.5-fold (95% CI, 1.4-10.5) increased risk of having early onset breast cancer. Methylation was consistently mosaic in the peripheral blood where the estimated allelic frequency of BRCA1 promoter methylation ranged from 0.1% to 17%. Group 1 women, but not group 3 women, with detectable methylation of peripheral blood DNA had high levels of BRCA1 promoter methylation of their tumor DNA, indicating that constitutional BRCA1 methylation strongly predisposes toward the development of BRCA1 methylated tumors that then have features resembling BRCA1 mutated tumors. Screening peripheral blood for BRCA1 promoter methylation might thus predict early-onset breast cancers. This raises the possibility of chemoprevention or other intervention to diminish the risk of developing breast cancer in these women., (©2010 AACR.)

Background: Germline mutations in MSH6 account for 10%-20% of Lynch syndrome colorectal cancers caused by hereditary DNA mismatch repair gene mutations. Because there have been only a few studies of mutation carriers, their cancer risks are uncertain., Methods: We identified 113 families of MSH6 mutation carriers from five countries that we ascertained through family cancer clinics and population-based cancer registries. Mutation status, sex, age, and histories of cancer, polypectomy, and hysterectomy were sought from 3104 of their relatives. Age-specific cumulative risks for carriers and hazard ratios (HRs) for cancer risks of carriers, compared with those of the general population of the same country, were estimated by use of a modified segregation analysis with appropriate conditioning depending on ascertainment., Results: For MSH6 mutation carriers, the estimated cumulative risks to ages 70 and 80 years, respectively, were as follows: for colorectal cancer, 22% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 14% to 32%) and 44% (95% CI = 28% to 62%) for men and 10% (95% CI = 5% to 17%) and 20% (95% CI = 11% to 35%) for women; for endometrial cancer, 26% (95% CI = 18% to 36%) and 44% (95% CI = 30% to 58%); and for any cancer associated with Lynch syndrome, 24% (95% CI = 16% to 37%) and 47% (95% CI = 32% to 66%) for men and 40% (95% CI = 32% to 52%) and 65% (95% CI = 53% to 78%) for women. Compared with incidence for the general population, MSH6 mutation carriers had an eightfold increased incidence of colorectal cancer (HR = 7.6, 95% CI = 5.4 to 10.8), which was independent of sex and age. Women who were MSH6 mutation carriers had a 26-fold increased incidence of endometrial cancer (HR = 25.5, 95% CI = 16.8 to 38.7) and a sixfold increased incidence of other cancers associated with Lynch syndrome (HR = 6.0, 95% CI = 3.4 to 10.7)., Conclusion: We have obtained precise and accurate estimates of both absolute and relative cancer risks for MSH6 mutation carriers.

Ntroduction: As a group, women who carry germline mutations in partner and localizer of breast cancer 2 susceptibility protein (PALB2) are at increased risk of breast cancer. Little is known about by how much or whether risk differs by mutation or family history, owing to the paucity of studies of cases unselected for family history., Methods: We screened 1,403 case probands for PALB2 mutations in a population-based study of Australian women with invasive breast cancer stratified by age at onset. The age-specific risk of breast cancer was estimated from the cancer histories of first- and second-degree relatives of mutation-carrying probands using a modified segregation analysis that included a polygenic modifier and was conditioned on the carrier case proband. Further screening for PALB2 c.3113G > A (W1038X) was conducted for 779 families with multiple cases of breast cancer ascertained through family cancer clinics in Australia and New Zealand and 764 population-based controls., Results: We found five independent case probands in the population-based sample with the protein-truncating mutation PALB2 c.3113G > A (W1038X); 2 of 695 were diagnosed before age 40 years and 3 of 708 were diagnosed when between ages 40 and 59 years. Both of the two early-onset carrier case probands had very strong family histories of breast cancer. Further testing found that the mutation segregated with breast cancer in these families. No c.3113G > A (W1038X) carriers were found in 764 population-based unaffected controls. The hazard ratio was estimated to be 30.1 (95% confidence interval (CI), 7.5 to 120; P < 0.0001), and the corresponding cumulative risk estimates were 49% (95% CI, 15 to 93) to age 50 and 91% (95% CI, 44 to 100) to age 70. We found another eight families carrying this mutation in 779 families with multiple cases of breast cancer ascertained through family cancer clinics., Conclusions: The PALB2 c.3113G > A mutation appears to be associated with substantial risks of breast cancer that are of clinical relevance.

RAD51D is a homolog of the RAD51 protein, which is known to be an important component of the DNA repair pathway. A rare missense variant in the RAD51D gene, E233G (c.A>G), has been reported to be more prevalent in breast cancer cases from specific multiple-case breast cancer families, with an odds ratio of 2.6 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.12-6.03). We assessed whether this variant was associated with breast cancer risk using two studies: a population-based case-control-family study based on 1,110 cases and 629 controls, and a clinic-based study based on 390 cases from multiple-case breast cancer families. We conducted case-control analyses and modified segregation analyses of carrier families. The carrier frequencies (95% CI) of the RAD51D variant were 4.1% (2.4-6.6) for clinic-based cases, 3.9% (2.8-5.2) for population-based cases, and 3.7% (2.3-5.4) for population-based controls, and were not significantly higher in case groups than controls (P=0.7 and P=0.8, respectively). After genotyping the relatives of cases who carried the variant, modified segregation analyses of these families were conducted, and the estimated hazard ratio for breast cancer corresponding to the E233G variant was 1.30 (95% CI: 0.66-2.58; P=0.4) for familial breast cancer families and 1.28 (95% CI: 0.47-3.43; P=0.6) for families unselected for family history. Therefore, despite being well powered to detect moderate risks, no evidence for an association between the E233G variant and breast cancer risk was observed in any setting. Larger studies would be required to determine if this variant is associated with a smaller risk of breast cancer.

Background & Aims: Although the clinical phenotype of Lynch syndrome (also known as hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer) has been well described, little is known about disease in PMS2 mutation carriers. Now that mutation detection methods can discern mutations in PMS2 from mutations in its pseudogenes, more mutation carriers have been identified. Information about the clinical significance of PMS2 mutations is crucial for appropriate counseling. Here, we report the clinical characteristics of a large series of PMS2 mutation carriers., Methods: We performed PMS2 mutation analysis using long-range polymerase chain reaction and multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification for 99 probands diagnosed with Lynch syndrome-associated tumors showing isolated loss of PMS2 by immunohistochemistry. Penetrance was calculated using a modified segregation analysis adjusting for ascertainment., Results: Germ-line PMS2 mutations were detected in 62% of probands (n = 55 monoallelic; 6 biallelic). Among families with monoallelic PMS2 mutations, 65.5% met revised Bethesda guidelines. Compared with the general population, in mutation carriers, the incidence of colorectal cancer was 5.2-fold higher, and the incidence of endometrial cancer was 7.5-fold higher. In North America, this translates to a cumulative cancer risk to age 70 years of 15%-20% for colorectal cancer, 15% for endometrial cancer, and 25%-32% for any Lynch syndrome-associated cancer. No elevated risk for non-Lynch syndrome-associated cancers was observed., Conclusions: PMS2 mutations contribute significantly to Lynch syndrome, but the penetrance for monoallelic mutation carriers appears to be lower than that for the other mismatch repair genes. Modified counseling and cancer surveillance guidelines for PMS2 mutation carriers are proposed.

Purpose: PALB2 is a recently identified breast cancer susceptibility gene. We have previously identified in the Finnish population a PALB2 c.1592delT founder truncation mutation that is associated with an increased risk of breast cancer. In the present study, we wanted to assess in more detail the increased risk (hazard ratio, HR) and the age-specific cumulative risk (penetrance) of c.1592delT with regard to susceptibility to breast and other forms of cancer., Experimental Design: Modified segregation analyses fitted under maximum likelihood theory were used to estimate age-specific cumulative risks and HRs using the families of mutation carriers identified from a consecutive series of breast cancer cases unselected for age at onset or family history., Results: We found a substantially increased risk of breast cancer [HR, 6.1; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 2.2-17.2; P = 0.01] equivalent to a 40% (95% CI, 17-77) breast cancer risk by age 70 years, comparable to that for carriers of mutations in BRCA2. We found marginal evidence (P = 0.06) that the HR for breast cancer decreased with age by 4.2% per year (95% CI, 0.2-8.1), from 7.5-fold at age 30 years to 2.0-fold at age 60 years., Conclusions: Our results suggest that it may be appropriate to offer PALB2 c.1592delT mutation testing to Finnish women with breast cancer, especially those with an early age at onset or a family history of breast or related cancers, and to offer carriers the option of participation in extended disease surveillance programs.

Background & Aims: The revised Bethesda guidelines for Lynch syndrome recommend microsatellite instability (MSI) testing all colorectal cancers in patients diagnosed before age 50 years and colorectal cancers diagnosed in patients between ages 50 and 59 years with particular pathology features. Our aim was to identify pathology and other features that independently predict high MSI (MSI-H)., Methods: Archival tissue from 1098 population-based colorectal cancers diagnosed before age 60 years was tested for MSI. Pathology features, site, and age at diagnosis were obtained. Multiple logistic regression was performed to determine the predictive value of each feature, as measured by an odds ratio (OR), from which a scoring system (MsPath) was developed to estimate the probability a colorectal cancer is MSI-H., Results: Fifteen percent of tumors (162) were MSI-H. Independent predictors were tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (OR, 9.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 5.9-14.1), proximal subsite (OR, 4.7; 95% CI, 3.1-7.3), mucinous histology (OR, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.7-4.8), poor differentiation (OR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.2-3.1), Crohn's-like reaction (OR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.2-2.9), and diagnosis before age 50 years (OR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.3-2.9). MsPath score >or=1.0 had a sensitivity of 93% and a specificity of 55% for MSI-H., Conclusions: The probability an individual colorectal cancer is MSI-H is predicted well by the MsPath score. There is little value in testing for DNA mismatch repair loss in tumors, or for germline mismatch repair mutations, for colorectal cancers diagnosed in patients before age 60 years with an MSPath score <1 (approximately 50%). Pathology can identify almost all MSI-H colorectal cancers diagnosed before age 60 years.

Context: Models have been developed to predict the probability that a person carries a detectable germline mutation in the BRCA1 or BRCA2 genes. Their relative performance in a clinical setting is unclear., Objective: To compare the performance characteristics of four BRCA1/BRCA2 gene mutation prediction models: LAMBDA, based on a checklist and scores developed from data on Ashkenazi Jewish (AJ) women; BRCAPRO, a Bayesian computer program; modified Couch tables based on regression analyses; and Myriad II tables collated by Myriad Genetics Laboratories., Design and Setting: Family cancer history data were analyzed from 200 probands from the Mayo Clinic Familial Cancer Program, in a multispecialty tertiary care group practice. All probands had clinical testing for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations conducted in a single laboratory., Main Outcomes Measures: For each model, performance was assessed by the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC) and by tests of accuracy and dispersion. Cases "missed" by one or more models (model predicted less than 10% probability of mutation when a mutation was actually found) were compared across models., Results: All models gave similar areas under the ROC curve of 0.71 to 0.76. All models except LAMBDA substantially under-predicted the numbers of carriers. All models were too dispersed., Conclusions: In terms of ranking, all prediction models performed reasonably well with similar performance characteristics. Model predictions were widely discrepant for some families. Review of cancer family histories by an experienced clinician continues to be vital to ensure that critical elements are not missed and that the most appropriate risk prediction figures are provided.

Background & Aims: Cancer risks for mismatch repair gene mutation carriers have been derived almost exclusively using families ascertained owing to their strong cancer family history. These may be overestimates, due to analytic problems, and not generalizable. We estimated average cancer risks for mutations identified in population-based early onset colorectal cancer cases (probands) unselected for family history., Methods: Data were cancer histories and mutation status (carrier, non-carrier, or unknown) of 17 mismatch repair gene mutation carrier probands with colorectal cancer diagnosed before age 45 (8 hMLH1, 4 hMSH2, 4 hMSH6, 1 hPMS2) and their first- and second-degree relatives. We used modified segregation analysis theory, adjusting for the family being ascertained through the proband being an early onset mutation carrier., Results: Eleven carrier probands (64%) were from families meeting the Amsterdam II criteria for hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer. The cumulative risk for colorectal cancer (95% confidence interval) to age 70 was 45% (29%-62%) for men and 38% (19%-51%) for women. Corresponding risks were 67% (47%-84%) and 72% (48%-85%) for any hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer-related cancer. Compared with the general population, colorectal cancer incidence for men was approximately 180-fold higher before age 50, but about the same after age 50. For women, incidence was approximately 100-fold higher before age 50 and 7-fold higher thereafter., Conclusions: For carriers of the mutations in the mismatch repair genes that cause early onset colorectal cancer, colorectal cancer increases rapidly until age 50, and the incidence decreases to general population levels at older ages.