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Background: In Italy, surveillance through mandatory notification of cases to the National Surveillance System (NSS) has shown evidence of underreporting over the years. To evaluate the overall quality of malaria dataset, Hospital Discharge Records (HDRs) were analyzed as a second data source., Methods: Malaria cases by NSS and by HRDs were compared and analyzed from 2011-through 2017. The impact of cases was estimated by annual rates per 100,000 residents., Results: Cases reported to NSS and to HDRs were 5,149 and 6,446, respectively. The annual rate recorded by NSS increased from 1.2 per 100,000 in 2011 to 1.4 per 100,000 in 2017, a similar trend was shown by HDRs, from 1.4 per 100,000 in 2011 to 1.6 per 100,000 in 2017. Every year, the number of NSS cases was lower than HDRs cases suggesting moderate underreporting of the mandatory notification. In both data sources adult males aged 25 to 44, and non-Italian travellers visiting friends and relatives were the most affected groups; Plasmodium falciparum was the prevalent agent identified, being the imported cases originated mainly from sub-Saharan Africa. As places of diagnosis and care, both data sources indicated hospitals located in Northern Italy in over 70% of cases., Conclusions: Although the comparison of malaria cases highlighted some underreporting by NSS, a fair agreement between the two institutional information systems was observed. The use of both data sources improves the performance of malaria surveillance in Italy, essentially for early warning systems in case of locally-acquired events and primary prevention in international travellers., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

After the widespread use of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccine, H. influenzae invasive disease is now commonly due to non-encapsulated (NTHi), affecting mostly the youngest and the elderly. The objective of this study was to investigate H. influenzae nasopharyngeal carriage rate in adults with co-morbidities and possible associated risk factors., Methods: Patients aged >50 years with co-morbidities attending medical centres were examined. A nasopharyngeal swab was analysed for H. influenzae presence by cultural and molecular methods (RT-PCR). Univariable and multivariable analysis of risk factors for H. influenzae carriage were performed. Serotype of isolates was determined by PCR capsular genotyping. Minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) was determined by MIC gradient test and β-lactamase production was detected by the nitrocephin test. Genotyping was performed by Multilocus sequence typing (MLST). Phylogenetic relationships among carriage and invasive NTHi strains were assessed., Results: Among 248 enrolled patients (median age: 73 years), the carriage rate was 5.6% and 10.5% by cultural method or RT-PCR, respectively. Colonization with H. influenzae was significantly associated with the presence of acute respiratory symptoms (adjusted OR = 12.16, 95% CI: 3.05-48.58, p < 0.001). All colonizing isolates were NTHi. Three isolates (3/14, 21.4%) were resistant to ampicillin and beta-lactamase positive. MLST revealed a high degree of genetic diversity, with 11 different STs from 14 isolates. Eight out of the 11 (72.7%) STs were shared among carriage and invasive isolates., Conclusions: Adults ≥50 years old with co-morbidities are occasionally colonized by H. influenzae, even if the presence of co-morbidities is not a risk factor for colonization. The presence of acute respiratory symptoms is the only factor associated with H. influenzae colonization. Colonizing H. influenzae are all NTHi. Colonizing H. influenzae often belong to the same STs of invasive disease isolates., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Aims: To assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in Italy during the first wave of the epidemic, taking into consideration the geographical heterogeneity of the spread of COVID-19., Methods: This study is a retrospective, population-based cohort study using national statistics throughout Italy. Survival analysis was applied to data aggregated by day of death, age groups, sex, and Italian administrative units (107 provinces). We applied Cox models to estimate the relative hazards (RH) of excess mortality, comparing all-cause deaths in 2020 with the expected deaths from all causes in the same time period. The RH of excess deaths was estimated in areas with a high, moderate, and low spread of COVID-19. We reported the estimate also restricting the analysis to the period of March-April 2020 (first peak of the epidemic)., Results: The study population consisted of 57,204,501 individuals living in Italy as of January 1, 2020. The number of excess deaths was 36,445, which accounts for 13.4% of excess mortalities from all causes during January-May 2020 (i.e., RH = 1.134; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.129-1.140). In the macro-area with a relatively higher spread of COVID-19 (i.e., incidence rate, IR): 450-1,610 cases per 100,000 residents), the RH of excess deaths was 1.375 (95% CI: 1.364-1.386). In the area with a relatively moderate spread of COVID-19 (i.e., IR: 150-449 cases) it was 1.049 (95% CI: 1.038-1.060). In the area with a relatively lower spread of COVID-19 (i.e., IR: 30-149 cases), it was 0.967 (95% CI: 0.959-0.976). Between March and April (peak months of the first wave of the epidemic in Italy), we estimated an excess mortality from all causes of 43.5%. The RH of all-cause mortality for increments of 500 cases per 100,000 residents was 1.352 (95% CI: 1.346-1.359), corresponding to an increase of about 35%., Conclusions: Our analysis, making use of a population-based cohort model, estimated all-cause excess mortality in Italy taking account of both time period and of COVID-19 geographical spread. The study highlights the importance of a temporal/geographic framework in analyzing the risk of COVID-19-epidemy related mortality.

COVID-19 dramatically influenced mortality worldwide, in Italy as well, the first European country to experience the Sars-Cov2 epidemic. Many countries reported a two-wave pattern of COVID-19 deaths; however, studies comparing the two waves are limited. The objective of the study was to compare all-cause excess mortality between the two waves that occurred during the year 2020 using nationwide data. All-cause excess mortalities were estimated using negative binomial models with time modeled by quadratic splines. The models were also applied to estimate all-cause excess deaths "not directly attributable to COVD-19", i.e., without a previous COVID-19 diagnosis. During the first wave (25th February-31st May), we estimated 52,437 excess deaths (95% CI: 49,213-55,863) and 50,979 (95% CI: 50,333-51,425) during the second phase (10th October-31st December), corresponding to percentage 34.8% (95% CI: 33.8%-35.8%) in the second wave and 31.0% (95%CI: 27.2%-35.4%) in the first. During both waves, all-cause excess deaths percentages were higher in northern regions (59.1% during the first and 42.2% in the second wave), with a significant increase in the rest of Italy (from 6.7% to 27.1%) during the second wave. Males and those aged 80 or over were the most hit groups with an increase in both during the second wave. Excess deaths not directly attributable to COVID-19 decreased during the second phase with respect to the first phase, from 10.8% (95% CI: 9.5%-12.4%) to 7.7% (95% CI: 7.5%-7.9%), respectively. The percentage increase in excess deaths from all causes suggests in Italy a different impact of the SARS-CoV-2 virus during the second wave in 2020. The decrease in excess deaths not directly attributable to COVID-19 may indicate an improvement in the preparedness of the Italian health care services during this second wave, in the detection of COVID-19 diagnoses and/or clinical practice toward the other severe diseases., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2021 Dorrucci, Minelli, Boros, Manno, Prati, Battaglini, Corsetti, Andrianou, Riccardo, Fabiani, Vescio, Spuri, Urdiales, Martina, Onder, Pezzotti and Bella.)

Introduction: HIV infections in Italy has not undergone a substantial decline over recent years. For this reason, we analysed risk-factors and socio-economic indicators of HIV-risk perception in HIV surveillance data., Methods: An observational study was conducted and HIV-risk perception was estimated on the basis of reasons for undergoing testing. Ordinal logistic models were applied with three groups of response corresponding to three ordered levels of HIV-risk perception., Results: The study included 18 055 individuals: 27% with low, 40% moderate and 33% with high perception. A low risk perception was estimated in both areas, least deprived and highly deprived [Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) = 1.58, CI: 1.14-2.18 and AOR = 2.33, CI: 1.39-3.90]; for heterosexuals (AOR = 1.96, CI: 1.83-2.11), Injecting Drug Users (IDU) (AOR =1.82, CI: 1.59-2.08), low education (AOR = 1.74. CI: 1.20-2.54), age > 40 years (AOR = 1.59, CI: 1.50-1.69), males (AOR = 1.30, CI: 1.20-1.40)., Conclusions: In Italy there is a high percentage of HIV-infected people with poor HIV-risk perception. Poorer HIV-risk perception was associated with both, least and high deprivation, low education, older age, male gender, heterosexual and IDU groups. Our results could be relevant to address targeted HIV testing policies at both local and national levels.

Background: Data on Streptococcus pneumoniae carriage in adults with co-morbidities are limited. In this study we estimated the pneumococcal carriage among adults with co-morbidities and evaluated socio-demographic and clinical risk factors. The potential coverage of the current pneumococcal vaccines recommended for adults (PCV13 and PPV23) was also investigated., Methods: A cross-sectional study on S. pneumoniae carriage among unvaccinated adults ≥50 years with co-morbidities, presenting with or without acute respiratory symptoms at general practitioners in Rome, Italy, between October 2015 and July 2016 was conducted. Pneumococcal carriage was investigated by both cultural and molecular methods. Socio-demographic variables and co-morbidities were evaluated by logistic models as possible risk factors for pneumococcal carriage., Results: Out of 248 patients (median age: 73 yrs; IQR: 65-79), 12 (4.8%) and 83 (33.5%) individuals were found colonized using cultural or molecular methods, respectively. Potential risk factors for pneumococcal colonization as ascertained by molecular methods were: low level of education (adjusted OR = 3.71, 95% CI: 1.62-9.40), winter months (December-March vs other months, adjusted OR = 2.56, 95% CI: 1.29-5.14), and presence of chronic lung diseases (adjusted OR = 2.18, 95% CI: 1.15-4.16). The combination of serotype-specific multiplex RT-PCR and conventional PCR allowed to identify 22 serotypes/group of serotypes, of which the most common were: 24F/24A/24B, 12F/12A/12B/44/46, 6A/6B, 14, 15B/15C, and 22F/22A. Prevalence of pneumococcal carriage due to PCV13 serotypes and non-PCV13 serotypes was 23.6% and 67.3%, respectively. Prevalence of colonization due to PPV23 serotypes was estimated to be 54.6%., Conclusions: A high prevalence of S. pneumoniae carriage was observed among adults with co-morbidities, especially among individuals affected by chronic lung diseases. These results support vaccine strategies based on the sequential administration of PCV13 and PPV23 to control potentially invasive pneumococcal strains in adults, especially in subjects with co-morbidities., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background and aimsLate HIV diagnosis is associated with onward HIV transmission, higher morbidity, mortality and healthcare costs. In Italy, more than half of people living with HIV were diagnosed late during the last decade, with a CD4 count < 350 cells/mm3 at diagnosis. We aimed to determine the number and characteristics of people living with undiagnosed HIV infection and low CD4 counts in Italy. Methods: Data on newly reported HIV diagnoses from 2012 -2014 were obtained from the national HIV surveillance system. We used the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control HIV modelling tool to calculate the undiagnosed prevalence and yearly diagnosed fraction (YDF) in people with low CD4 count. Results: The estimated annual number undiagnosed HIV infections with low CD4 count was on average 6,028 (95% confidence interval (CI): 4,954-8,043) from 2012-2014. In 2014, most of the undiagnosed people with low CD4 count were men (82.8%), a third acquired HIV through sex between men (MSM) (35.0%), and heterosexual transmission (33.4%), respectively. The prevalence of undiagnosed HIV infection was 11.3 (95% CI: 9.3-14.9) per 100,000 residents ranging from 0.7 to 20.8 between Italian regions. Nationally the prevalence rate was 280.4 (95% CI: 173.3-450.2) per 100,000 MSM, 8.3 (95% CI: 4.9-13.6) per 100,000 heterosexual men, and 3.0 (95% CI: 1.4-5.6) per 100,000 women. The YDF was highest among heterosexual women (27.1%; 95% CI: 16.9-45.2%). Conclusions: These findings highlight the importance of improving efforts to identify undiagnosed HIV infections primarily among men, both MSM and heterosexual men.

Background: CD4 cell recovery following first-line combination ART (cART) is poorer in HIV-2+ than in HIV-1+ patients. Only large comparisons may allow adjustments for demographic and pretreatment plasma viral load (pVL)., Methods: ART-naive HIV+ adults from two European multicohort collaborations, COHERE (HIV-1 alone) and ACHIeV2e (HIV-2 alone), were included, if they started first-line cART (without NNRTIs or fusion inhibitors) between 1997 and 2011. Patients without at least one CD4 cell count before start of cART, without a pretreatment pVL and with missing a priori-defined covariables were excluded. Evolution of CD4 cell count was studied using adjusted linear mixed models., Results: We included 185 HIV-2+ and 30321 HIV-1+ patients with median age of 46 years (IQR 36-52) and 37 years (IQR 31-44), respectively. Median observed pretreatment CD4 cell counts/mm3 were 203 (95% CI 100-290) in HIV-2+ patients and 223 (95% CI 100-353) in HIV-1+ patients. Mean observed CD4 cell count changes from start of cART to 12 months were +105 (95% CI 77-134) in HIV-2+ patients and +202 (95% CI 199-205) in HIV-1+ patients, an observed difference of 97 cells/mm3 in 1 year. In adjusted analysis, the mean CD4 cell increase was overall 25 CD4 cells/mm3/year lower (95% CI 5-44; P = 0.0127) in HIV-2+ patients compared with HIV-1+ patients., Conclusions: A poorer CD4 cell increase during first-line cART was observed in HIV-2+ patients, even after adjusting for pretreatment pVL and other potential confounders. Our results underline the need to identify more potent therapeutic regimens or strategies against HIV-2., (© The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Objectives: The aim of this work was to provide a reference for the CD4 T-cell count response in the early months after the initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in HIV-1-infected patients., Methods: All patients in the Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe (COHERE) cohort who were aged ≥ 18 years and started cART for the first time between 1 January 2005 and 1 January 2010 and who had at least one available measurement of CD4 count and a viral load ≤ 50 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL at 6 months (± 3 months) after cART initiation were included in the study. Unadjusted and adjusted references curves and predictions were obtained using quantile regressions., Results: A total of 28 992 patients were included in the study. The median CD4 T-cell count at treatment initiation was 249 [interquartile range (IQR) 150, 336] cells/μL. The median observed CD4 counts at 6, 9 and 12 months were 382 (IQR 256, 515), 402 (IQR 274, 543) and 420 (IQR 293, 565) cells/μL. The two main factors explaining the variation of CD4 count at 6 months were AIDS stage and CD4 count at cART initiation. A CD4 count increase of ≥ 100 cells/mL is generally required in order that patients stay 'on track' (i.e. with a CD4 count at the same percentile as when they started), with slightly higher gains required for those starting with CD4 counts in the higher percentiles. Individual predictions adjusted for factors influencing CD4 count were more precise., Conclusions: Reference curves aid the evaluation of the immune response early after antiretroviral therapy initiation that leads to viral control., (© 2016 British HIV Association.)

In 2012, we conducted a retrospective cross-sectional study to assess the number of people living with HIV linked to care and, among these, the number of people on antiretroviral therapy. The health authority in each of the 20 Italian Regions provided the list of Public Infectious Diseases Clinics providing antiretroviral therapy and monitoring people with HIV infection. We asked every Public Infectious Diseases Clinic to report the number of HIV-positive people diagnosed and linked to care and the number of those on antiretroviral therapy during 2012. In 2012, 94,146 people diagnosed with HIV and linked to care were reported. The majority were males (70.1%), Italians (84.4%), and aged between 25 and 49 years (63.4%); the probable route of transmission was heterosexual contact in 37.5% of cases, injecting drug use in 28.1%, and male-to-male contact in 27.9%. Among people in care, 20.1% had less than 350 CD4 cells/μl, 87.6% received antiretroviral therapy, and among these, 62.4% had a CD4 cell count higher than 350 cells/μl. The overall estimated prevalence of individuals diagnosed and linked to care in 2012 in Italy was 0.16 per 100 residents (all ages). Adding the estimated proportion of undiagnosed people, the estimated HIV prevalence would range between 0.19 and 0.26 per 100 residents. In Italy, the majority of people diagnosed and linked to care receive antiretroviral therapy. A higher prevalence of individuals diagnosed and linked to care was observed in Northern Italy and among males. More information for developing the HIV care continuum is necessary to improve the entire engagement in care, focusing on test-and-treat strategies to substantially reduce the proportion of people still undiagnosed or with a detectable viral load.

Design: Rapid CD4 cell loss represents an HIV phenotype used to identify causal variants of accelerated disease progression. The optimal rate and threshold for identifying this extreme phenotype in recently infected individuals is unclear., Methods: Using a cohort of patients with known dates of HIV-1 seroconversion (SC), CASCADE (Concerted Action on SeroConversion on AIDS and Death in Europe), we identified proportions experiencing nadir CD4 cell levels within 1 year of SC, and assessed their mean AIDS-free survival time at 10-year follow-up and hazard of AIDS/death, compared with those whose CD4 remained >500 cells per cubic millimeter. Follow-up was censored at December 31, 1996 to avoid bias due to combination antiretroviral therapy initiation., Results: Of 4876 individuals, 2.8%, 7.3%, and 24.9% experienced ≥1 CD4 <100, 200, and 350 cells per cubic millimeter, respectively, within 1 year of SC. Minimum CD4 levels of 30, 166, 231, and 506 cells per cubic millimeter were experienced during this period by 1%, 5%, 10%, and 50% of individuals, respectively. Mean (95% confidence interval) AIDS-free survival at 10 years follow-up was 2.9 (2.3 to 3.6), 5.5 (5.0 to 6.1), 6.7 (6.5 to 7.0), 7.4 (7.2 to 7.6), and 8.1 (7.9 to 8.3), for those with minimum counts ≤100, 100-200, 200-350, 350-500, >500 cells per cubic millimeter, respectively. Using counts of >500 cells per cubic millimeter as reference, the hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) of AIDS/death were 15.0 (11.9 to 18.9), 3.6 (2.9 to 4.5), 2.1 (1.8 to 2.4), and 1.5 (1.3 to 1.7), respectively. The hazard ratio increased to 37.5 (26.5 to 53.1) when a minimum CD4 count <100 was confirmed within 1 year of SC., Conclusion: At least 1 CD4 ≤100 cells per cubic millimeter within the first year of SC identifies a rare group of individuals at high risk of disease progression and could form the basis for defining the rapid progressor phenotype.

Background & Aims: Individuals with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection frequently also are infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) (co-infection), but little is known about its effects on the progression of HIV-associated disease. We aimed to determine the effects of co-infection on mortality from HIV and/or acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS), and hepatitis or liver disease, adjusting for the duration of HIV infection., Methods: We analyzed data from the 16 cohorts of the Concerted Action on Seroconversion to AIDS and Death in Europe (CASCADE) collaboration, which included information on HCV infection and cause of death. A competing-risks proportional subdistribution hazards model was used to evaluate the effect of HCV infection on the following causes of death: HIV- and/or AIDS-related, hepatitis- or liver-related, natural, and non-natural., Results: Of 9164 individuals with HIV infection and a known date of seroconversion, 2015 (22.0%) also were infected with HCV. Of 718 deaths, 395 (55.0%) were caused by HIV infection and/or AIDS, and 39 (5.4%) were caused by hepatitis or liver-related disease. Among individuals infected with only HIV or with co-infection, the mortality from HIV infection and/or AIDS-related causes and hepatitis or liver disease decreased significantly after 1997, when combination antiretroviral therapy became widely available. However, after 1997, HIV and/or AIDS-related mortality was higher among co-infected individuals than those with only HIV infection in each risk group: injection drug use (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 2.43; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.14-5.20), sex between men and women or hemophilia (aHR, 3.43; 95% CI, 1.70-6.93), and sex between men (aHR, 3.11; 95% CI, 1.49-6.48). Compared with individuals infected with only HIV, co-infected individuals had a higher risk of death from hepatitis or liver disease., Conclusions: Based on analysis of data from the CASCADE collaboration, since 1997, when combination antiretroviral therapy became widely available, individuals co-infected with HIV and HCV have had a higher risk of death from HIV and/or AIDS, and from hepatitis or liver disease, than patients infected with only HIV. It is necessary to evaluate the effects of HCV therapy on HIV progression., (Copyright © 2013 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Low CD4(+) T-cell counts are the main factor leading to clinical progression in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection. We aimed to investigate factors affecting CD4(+) T-cell counts after triple-class virological failure., Methods: We included individuals from the COHERE database who started antiretroviral therapy from 1998 onward and who experienced triple-class virological failure. CD4(+) T-cell counts obtained after triple-class virologic failure were analyzed using generalized estimating equations., Results: The analyses included 2424 individuals with a total of 23 922 CD4(+) T-cell count measurements. In adjusted models (excluding current viral load and year), CD4(+) T-cell counts were higher with regimens that included boosted protease inhibitors (increase, 22 cells/µL [95% confidence interval {CI}, 3.9-41]; P = .017) or drugs from the new classes (increase, 39 cells/µL [95% CI, 15-62]; P = .001), compared with nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor-based regimens. These associations disappeared when current viral load and/or calendar year were included. Compared with viral levels of <2.5 log(10) copies/mL, levels of 2.5-3.5, 3.5-4.5, 4.5-5.5, and >5.5 log(10) copies/mL were associated with CD4(+) T-cell count decreases of 51, 84, 137, and 186 cells/µL, respectively (P < .001)., Conclusions: The approximately linear inverse relationship between log(10) viral load and CD4(+) T-cell count indicates that there are likely immunologic benefits from lowering viral load even by modest amounts that do not lead to undetectable viral loads. This is important for patients with low CD4(+) T-cell counts and few drug options.

Background: Despite the increasing success of antiretroviral therapy (ART), virologic failure of the 3 original classes [triple-class virologic failure, (TCVF)] still develops in a small minority of patients who started therapy in the triple combination ART era. Trends in the incidence and prevalence of TCVF over calendar time have not been fully characterised in recent years., Methods: Calendar time trends in the incidence and prevalence of TCVF from 2000 to 2009 were assessed in patients who started ART from January 1, 1998, and were followed within the Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe (COHERE)., Results: Of 91,764 patients followed for a median (interquartile range) of 4.1 (2.0-7.1) years, 2722 (3.0%) developed TCVF. The incidence of TCVF increased from 3.9 per 1000 person-years of follow-up [95% confidence interval (CI): 3.7 to 4.1] in 2000 to 8.8 per 1000 person-years of follow-up (95% CI: 8.5 to 9.0) in 2005, but then declined to 5.8 per 1000 person-years of follow-up (95% CI: 5.6 to 6.1) by 2009. The prevalence of TCVF was 0.3% (95% CI: 0.27% to 0.42%) at December 31, 2000, and then increased to 2.4% (95% CI: 2.24% to 2.50%) by the end of 2005. However, since 2005, TCVF prevalence seems to have stabilized and has remained below 3%., Conclusions: The prevalence of TCVF in people who started ART after 1998 has stabilized since around 2005, which most likely results from the decline in incidence of TCVF from this date. The introduction of improved regimens and better overall HIV care is likely to have contributed to these trends. Despite this progress, calendar trends should continue to be monitored in the long term.

Background: Limited treatment options have been available for people with HIV who have had virological failure of the three original classes of HIV antiretroviral drugs-so-called triple-class virological failure (TCVF). However, introduction of new drugs and drug classes might have improved outcomes. We aimed to assess trends in virological and clinical outcomes for individuals with TCVF in 2000-09., Methods: In our cohort study, we analysed data for adults starting antiretroviral therapy from 1998 in cohorts participating in the PLATO II project, which is part of COHERE, a collaboration of European cohorts. TCVF was defined as virological failure to at least two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors, one non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor, and one ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitor, with virological failure of a drug defined as one viral-load measurement of greater than 500 copies per mL after at least 4 months of continuous use. We used multivariable generalised estimating equation logistic models and Poisson regression models to study trends in virological suppression and incidence of AIDS or death after TCVF. We adjusted for sex, transmission group, age, AIDS status, CD4 cell count, plasma viral loads at TCVF, achievement of virological response (<50 copies per mL), and number of drug failures before TCVF., Findings: 28 of 33 cohorts in COHERE contributed data to the PLATO II project, of which four had no participants eligible for inclusion in this study. 2476 (3%) of 91 764 participants from the remaining 24 cohorts had TCVF and at least one viral load measurement in 2000-09. The proportion of patients with virological response after TCVF increased from 19·5% in 2000 to 57·9% in 2009 (adjusted p<0·0001). Incidence of AIDS decreased from 7·7 per 100 person-years in 2000-02 to 2·3 in 2008 and 1·2 in 2009 (adjusted p<0·0001). Mortality decreased from 4·0 per 100 person-years between 2000 and 2002 to 1·9 in 2007 and 1·4 in 2008 (unadjusted p=0·023), but the trend was not significant after adjustment (p=0·22)., Interpretation: A substantial improvement in viral load suppression and accompanying decrease in the rates of AIDS in people after extensive failure to drugs from the three original antiretroviral classes during 2000-09 was probably mainly driven by availability of newer drugs with better tolerability and ease of use and small cross-resistance profiles, suggesting the public health benefit of the introduction of new drugs., (Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

The purpose of this study was to evaluate retrospectively the potential benefits of directly administered antiretroviral therapy (DAART) in HIV-infected former injecting drug users (ex-IDUs) admitted to residential drug rehabilitation facilities. We compared 106 of these patients consecutively admitted in 12 communities where DAART was administered (DAART group) to two matched control groups of ex-IDUs undergoing self-administered ART: 106 subjects in other 10 communities (SAT group) and 106 outpatients at hospital infectious-disease wards where community patients were referred after discharge (OUT group). We estimated the proportion of patients with high adherence and the hazard ratio (HR) of 20% or more increase in the CD4(+) cell count and of reaching an undetectable viral load. The proportion of patients with high adherence to treatment was highest in the DAART group. The probability of 20% or more increase in the CD4(+) cell count was significantly lower in the two control groups versus the DAART group (SAT group HR=0.32; OUT group HR=0.43). The HR of observing an undetectable HIV-RNA level versus DAART was significantly lower in the OUT group (HR: 0.71; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.52-0.97) but did not reach statistical significance for the SAT group (HR: 0.99; 95% CI: 0.74-1.33). Our findings after a 24-month follow-up, suggest that DAART in HIV-infected patients of drug-rehabilitation communities improves adherence, immunologic, and virologic outcome toward free outpatients. Even if our retrospective 36-month data do not show a prolonged viral suppression in these patients, DAART may be considered a valuable therapeutic and educational strategy in this particular target group.

Background: Outbreaks of acute hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection among HIV-infected MSM have been described since 2000. However, phylogenetic analysis suggests that the spread of HCV started around 1996. We estimated the incidence of HCV in HIV-infected MSM with well estimated dates of HIV seroconversion from 1990 to 2007., Methods: Data from 12 cohorts within the Concerted Action on SeroConversion to AIDS and Death in Europe (CASCADE) Collaboration were used. HCV incidence was estimated using standard incidence methods and methods for interval-censored data. We accounted for the fact that routine HCV data collection in each cohort started in different calendar years., Results: Of 4724 MSM, 3014 had an HCV test result and were included. Of these, 124 (4%) had only positive HCV test results, 2798 (93%) had only negative results and 92 (3%) had both. In 1990, HCV incidence ranged from 0.9 to 2.2 per 1000 person-years, depending on the analysis strategy used. HCV incidence increased up to 1995 when it was estimated to range between 5.5 and 8.1 per 1000 person-years. From 2002 onwards, it increased substantially to values between 16.8 and 30.0 per 1000 person-years in 2005 and between 23.4 and 51.1 per 1000 person-years in 2007., Conclusion: Our data support phylodynamic findings that HCV incidence had already increased among HIV-infected MSM from the mid-1990s. However, the main expansion of the HCV epidemic started after 2002. Incidence estimates obtained from cohort studies may help identify changes in the spread of important infections earlier and should guide routine testing policies to minimize further disease burden.

Objective: Treatment guidelines recommend initiation of therapy for individuals experiencing rapid CD4 cell decline. It is not known, however, whether the rate of CD4 cell decline before combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) is related to immunological response following cART., Methods: We estimated precART and postcART CD4 cell slopes by mixed models and categorized patients into two groups according to whether estimated precART slopes were above or below the 75th percentile. We compared immunological responses of the two groups through both mixed models and survival techniques. Models were stratified by CD4 cell at baseline, adjusted for HIV RNA, age, sex, HIV transmission group, year of seroconversion, initiation during primary infection, hepatitis C virus and hepatitis B virus serostatus, and cART class., Results: Of 2038 eligible patients, 1531 and 507 experienced median (interquartile range) precART CD4 cell slope of −105 (−471 to −61) and −42 (−62 to −80) cells/μl, respectively, over 2 years. After adjusting for potential confounders, individuals with shallower decline experienced a slower rate of CD4 cell recovery following cART initiation of +9.5 [95% confidence interval (CI) +6.6 to +12.2] compared to +13.9 (+13.0 to +14.8) cells/μl per month among those with steeper precART decline (P < 0.001). After stratifying by the baseline CD4 cell count, the adjusted relative hazard of an increase from baseline of more than 50 cells/μl was 0.70 (95% CI 0.62−0.79) for those with a shallower vs. steeper precART decline., Conclusion: Findings highlight the existence of a subgroup of individuals with shallower precART CD4 cell decline who experience poorer CD4 cell increases after cART; new studies in this group may provide information to optimize responses to therapy.

Since February 2002, the Drug Resources Enhancement against AIDS and Malnutrition Program has provided highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) and immunologic and virologic monitoring free of charge. We conducted a cohort study of persons infected with human immunodeficiency virus in Mozambique. Only persons treated with HAART with available CD4 cell counts at baseline and ≥ 1 CD4 cell count after HAART were included. Survival analysis was applied to evaluate the prognostic value of CD4 cell counts measured at three months. Possible confounders were considered. A total of 753 persons who started HAART included; 59% were females. Median age was 34 years (range = 16-67 years), and the median CD4 cell count at baseline was 172 cells/mm3 (interquartile range = 87-261 cells/mm3, range = 0-1,322 cells/mm3). Overall, 105 persons (14%) died. Of these persons 54 (51%) developed AIDS before they died; 25 (3%) died during the first three months. After three months of therapy, the individual median CD4 cell count change from the baseline value was +101 cells/mm3 (interquartile range = +27 to +187 cells/mm3, range = -723 to +310 cells/mm3). A median CD4 increment of 100 cells/mm3 in three months was associated with a mortality reduction of 50% compared with an increase of < 50 cells (relative hazard of death adjusted for baseline CD4 cell count = 0.54, 95% confidence interval = 0.30-0.95). A good initial response to HAART was associated with a significant reduction of mortality. This finding supports the effectiveness of HAART in resource-poor settings.

Background: Life expectancy of people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is now estimated to approach that of the general population in some successfully treated subgroups. However, to attain these life expectancies, viral suppression must be maintained for decades., Methods: We studied the rate of triple-class virologic failure (TCVF) in patients within the Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe (COHERE) who started antiretroviral therapy (ART) that included a nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) or a ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitor (PI/r) from 1998 onwards. We also focused on TCVF in patients who started a PI/r-containing regimen after a first-line NNRTI-containing regimen failed., Results: Of 45 937 patients followed up for a median (interquartile range) of 3.0 (1.5-5.0) years, 980 developed TCVF (2.1%). By 5 and 9 years after starting ART, an estimated 3.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.1%-3.6%) and 8.6% (95% CI, 7.5%-9.8%) of patients, respectively, had developed TCVF. The incidence of TCVF rose during the first 3 to 4 years on ART but plateaued thereafter. There was no significant difference in the risk of TCVF according to whether the initial regimen was NNRTI or PI/r based (P = .11). By 5 years after starting a PI/r regimen as second-line therapy, 46% of patients had developed TCVF., Conclusions: The rate of virologic failure of the 3 original drug classes is low, but not negligible, and does not appear to diminish over time from starting ART. If this trend continues, many patients are likely to need newer drugs to maintain viral suppression. The rate of TCVF from the start of a PI/r regimen after NNRTI failure provides a comparator for studies of response to second-line regimens in resource-limited settings.

Background: CD4 cell count is a strong predictor of the subsequent risk of AIDS or death in HIV-infected patients initiating combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). It is not known whether the rate of CD4 cell decline prior to therapy is related to prognosis and should, therefore, influence the decision on when to initiate cART., Methods and Findings: We carried out survival analyses of patients from the 23 cohorts of the CASCADE (Concerted Action on SeroConversion to AIDS and Death in Europe) collaboration with a known date of HIV seroconversion and with at least two CD4 measurements prior to initiating cART. For each patient, a pre-cART CD4 slope was estimated using a linear mixed effects model. Our primary outcome was time from initiating cART to a first new AIDS event or death. We included 2,820 treatment-naïve patients initiating cART with a median (interquartile range) pre-cART CD4 cell decline of 61 (46-81) cells/microl per year; 255 patients subsequently experienced a new AIDS event or death and 125 patients died. In an analysis adjusted for established risk factors, the hazard ratio for AIDS or death was 1.01 (95% confidence interval 0.97-1.04) for each 10 cells/microl per year reduction in pre-cART CD4 cell decline. There was also no association between pre-cART CD4 cell slope and survival. Alternative estimates of CD4 cell slope gave similar results. In 1,731 AIDS-free patients with >350 CD4 cells/microl from the pre-cART era, the rate of CD4 cell decline was also not significantly associated with progression to AIDS or death (hazard ratio 0.99, 95% confidence interval 0.94-1.03, for each 10 cells/microl per year reduction in CD4 cell decline)., Conclusions: The CD4 cell slope does not improve the prediction of clinical outcome in patients with a CD4 cell count above 350 cells/microl. Knowledge of the current CD4 cell count is sufficient when deciding whether to initiate cART in asymptomatic patients. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

In this decade, the global prevalence of HIV-1 infection stabilized at 0.8% (range: 0.7-0.9%). However, important regional differences in trends and mode of transmission: Sub-Saharan Africa is the most affected by HIV. Since 2001, the number of people with HIV in Eastern Europe and Central Asia increased from 650,000 to 1,5 million in 2007. Overall trends were stable in Central and Western Europe. Heterosexual and homosexual transmission accounts for the largest proportion in these regions. Transmission among injecting drug users has decreased. Similar trends have been observed in Italy: in 2007, there were 1,679 new diagnoses, equivalent to an incidence of 6,0 per 100,000 population. Over the years there has been a progressive increase in the proportion of diagnoses among women and in the median age at diagnosis, as well as changes in the exposure categories (i.e. a decrease in the proportion of injecting drug users and an increase in infections attributed to homosexual and heterosexual contacts). The era of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) has resulted in a reduction of morbidity and mortality. Before the advent of cART in 1996, the main causes of morbidity and mortality in people with HIV were the opportunistic infections and malignancies AIDS associated.

Limited information is available on the viral etiology of influenza-like illness in southern European countries, and it is still a matter of debate whether certain symptoms can be used to distinguish among the specific viruses that cause influenza-like illness. The main objective of the present study was to identify the demographic and clinical predictors of influenza-like illness due to specific viral agents. The study, which was observational in design, was conducted in Rome and Naples, Italy. Cases of influenza-like illness were defined as individuals with fever >37.5 degrees C and at least one systemic and one respiratory symptom, recruited during the winters of 2004-2005, 2005-2006, and 2006-2007. Influenza and other respiratory viruses were identified using the polymerase chain reaction (PCR), performed on throat swabs. Basic individual information was collected using a standard form. A total of 580 persons were included in the analysis. Viral pathogens were identified in fewer than 50% of the cases. Overall, 240 viral agents were detected: 22.8% were positive for influenza viruses, 10.9% for adenoviruses, 6.0% for parainfluenza viruses, and 1.7% for respiratory syncytial virus. The month of diagnosis, and muscle and joint pain were associated with influenza virus, though the positive predictive value (PPV) was low. Abdominal pain was associated with adenovirus infection. Although the PPV of symptoms for influenza virus infection was low, especially in low activity periods, these findings may help clinicians to improve their ability to perform diagnoses., ((c) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.)

Objective: To assess whether immunodeficiency is associated with the most frequent non-AIDS-defining causes of death in the era of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART)., Design: Observational multicentre cohorts., Methods: Twenty-three cohorts of adults with estimated dates of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) seroconversion were considered. Patients were seroconverters followed within the cART era. Measurements were latest CD4, nadir CD4 and time spent with CD4 cell count less than 350 cells/microl. Outcomes were specific causes of death using a standardized classification., Results: Among 9858 patients (71 230 person-years follow-up), 597 died, 333 (55.7%) from non-AIDS-defining causes. Non-AIDS-defining infection, liver disease, non-AIDS-defining malignancy and cardiovascular disease accounted for 53% of non-AIDS deaths. For each 100 cells/microl increment in the latest CD4 cell count, we found a 64% (95% confidence interval 58-69%) reduction in risk of death from AIDS-defining causes and significant reductions in death from non-AIDS infections (32, 18-44%), end-stage liver disease (33, 18-46%) and non-AIDS malignancies (34, 21-45%). Non-AIDS-defining causes of death were also associated with nadir CD4 while being cART-naive or duration of exposure to immunosuppression. No relationship between risk of death from cardiovascular disease and CD4 cell count was found though there was a raised risk associated with elevated HIV RNA., Conclusion: In the cART era, the most frequent non-AIDS-defining causes of death are associated with immunodeficiency, only cardiovascular disease was associated with high viral replication. Avoiding profound and mild immunodeficiency, through earlier initiation of cART, may impact on morbidity and mortality of HIV-infected patients.

Objective: Though effective anti-human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) therapies are now available, they have variable penetration into the brain. We therefore aimed to assess changes over calendar time in the risk for HIV-associated dementia (HIV-D), and factors associated with HIV-D risk., Methods: Using Concerted Action on Seroconversion to AIDS and Death in Europe (CASCADE) data, we analyzed factors associated with time from HIV seroconversion to HIV-D using Cox models with time-updated covariates. The effect of duration of infection was explored using flexible parametric survival models., Results: 222 of 15,380 seroconverters developed HIV-D. The incidence per 1,000 person-years was 6.49 pre-1997 (before highly active antiretroviral therapy was available), declining to 0.66 by 2003 to 2006. Compared with most recent CD4 count > or = 350 cells/mm3, the adjusted relative risk (95% confidence interval) of HIV-D was 3.47 (1.91-6.28), 10.19 (5.72-18.15), and 39.03 (22.96-66.36) at 200 to 349, 100 to 199, and 0 to 99 cells/mm3, respectively. In 2003 to 2006, older age at seroconversion (relative risk = 3.24 per 10-year increase [95% confidence interval, 2.00-5.24]) and previous acquired immune deficiency syndrome diagnosis (relative risk = 4.92 [95% confidence interval, 1.43-16.92]) were associated with HIV-D risk, independently of current CD4 count. HIV-D risk appeared to increase during chronic infection, by 48% at 10 years after seroconversion compared with the lowest risk at 1.8 years., Interpretation: HIV-D incidence has reduced markedly since 1997. However, patients with low (<200 cells/mm3) or even intermediate (200-349 cells/mm3) CD4 counts, previous acquired immune deficiency syndrome diagnosis, longer HIV infection duration, and older age at seroconversion are at increased risk and should be closely monitored for neurocognitive disorders.

Five cases of varicella occurred in a women's prison in Rome. A serosurvey conducted in the prison found that 14.5% of the inmates were susceptible. The sensitivity and positive predictive value of a history of varicella were high, whereas specificity was rather low. The attack rate among susceptible inmates was approximately 22%. Preventive measures probably contributed to reduce infection spread.

We describe an outbreak of subtype G among injecting drug users (IDU) in northern Italy newly infected with HIV. We analysed pol gene sequences from samples of 139 individuals from different risk groups. Non-B subtypes were more frequently detected among IDU than in homosexual or heterosexual contacts. All G subtypes but one were found among IDU. The phylogenetic analysis indicated that the outbreak was of monophyletic origin and was caused by HIV-1 strains similar to those from western Africa.

Objective: The objective was to assess the efficacy of double intrauterine insemination (IUI) over a single periovulatory IUI in patients undergoing controlled ovarian hyperstimulation with low-dose recombinant follicle stimulating hormone (rFSH) combined with human chorionic gonadotropin (HCG)., Study Design: Ninety-four infertile women were randomly assigned to three groups; in group A (38 patients, 47 cycles) a single IUI was performed 36 h after HCG administration combined with timed intercourse the day of HCG administration; within group B (43 patients, 48 cycles) IUI alone was performed 36 h after HCG administration; in group C (39 patients, 43 cycles) a double IUI 12 and 36 h after HCG administration was performed., Results: The mean age and the causes of infertility were similar between the three groups. The number of follicles greater than 15 mm on the day of HCG administration and the overall dose of rFSH required per cycle was not significantly different among the groups. The pregnancy rate (PR) per cycle and per patient was 14.9% and 18.4% in group A, 10.4% and 11.6% in group B, 20.9% and 23.1% in group C, respectively. There was no statistically significant difference in PR among the three groups., Conclusion: In rFSH/HCG cycles, two IUIs performed 12 and 36 h after HCG administration do not significantly improve pregnancy rates over a single insemination performed 36 h after HCG administration combined with or without timed intercourse the day of HCG administration.

Background: A follow-up study was conducted in Italy and in France to compare the epidemiology of Kaposi's sarcoma (KS) between human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected people and transplant recipients., Methods: In all, 8,074 HIV-positive individuals (6,072 from France and 2,002 HIV-seroconverters from Italy) and 2,705 Italian transplant recipients (1,844 kidney transplants, 702 heart transplants, and 159 liver transplants) were followed-up between 1970 and 2004. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed to estimate the risk of KS, as compared to sex- and age-matched Italian and French populations. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were used to identify risk factors for KS., Results: A 451-fold higher SIR for KS was recorded in HIV-infected subjects and a 128-fold higher SIR was seen in transplant recipients. Significantly increased KS risks were observed in HIV-infected homosexual men (IRR=9.7 in France and IRR=6.7 in Italy vs. intravenous drug users), and in transplant recipients born in southern Italy (IRR=5.2 vs. those born in northern Italy). HIV-infected patients with high CD4+ cell counts and those treated with antiretroviral therapies had reduced KS risks. In relation to duration of immunosuppression, KS occurred earlier in transplant patients than in HIV-seroconverters., Conclusions: This comparison highlighted that the risk of KS was higher among HIV-infected individuals than in transplant recipients, and that different co-factors are likely to influence the risk of KS. Moreover, the early KS occurrence in transplant recipients could be associated with different patterns of progressive impairment of the immune function.

Among 976 men who have sex with men (MSM) who had undergone repeat HIV testing between 1984 and 2003 at a sexually transmitted infection clinic in Rome, Italy, we observed a dramatic increase in HIV incidence in 2002 and 2003, with the cumulative incidence for 2000-2003 being twice as high as that for 1984-1995, and significantly higher than that for 1996-1999. This trend suggests the need for interventions aimed at encouraging behavioural changes among MSM.

The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) type 1 Tat protein plays a key role in the life cycle of the virus and in pathogenesis and is highly conserved among HIV subtypes. On the basis of this and of safety, immunogenicity, and efficacy findings in monkeys, Tat is being tested as a vaccine in phase 1 trials. Here, we evaluated the incidence and risk of progression to advanced HIV disease by anti-Tat serostatus in a cohort of 252 HIV-1 seroconverters. The risk of progression was lower in the anti-Tat-positive subjects than in the anti-Tat-negative subjects. Progression was faster in the persistently anti-Tat-negative subjects than in the transiently anti-Tat-positive subjects, and no progression was observed in the persistently anti-Tat-positive subjects.

Objective: To determine whether there has been a tendency for early post-seroconversion CD4 cell counts to change over calendar time., Design: A prospective cohort study of individuals with well-estimated dates of seroconversion., Methods: We studied 1251 individuals who seroconverted to HIV in Italy between 1985 and 2002, and for whom the first CD4 count was measured within 2 years of seroconversion and before any use of antiretrovirals. Linear regression models were used to assess evidence for a trend in post-seroconversion CD4 cell count over time., Results: The median post-seroconversion CD4 cell count was 674 x 10 cells/l in those seroconverting between 1985 and 1990, 588 x 10 cells/l for 1991 to 1994, 559 x 10 cells/l for 1995 to 1998 and 494 x 10 cells/l for 1999 to 2002. The post-seroconversion CD4 cell count decreased by an average of 8.4 x 10 cells/l per year (95% confidence interval, 4.0-12.9; P < 0.001), after adjustment for potential confounders, including interval between HIV-negative and HIV-positive tests, lag time for first CD4 cell count measurement, age at seroconversion, gender, HIV-transmission group, and clinical centre. The finding was consistent in sensitivity analyses restricted to those with information on acute infection., Conclusion: These data suggest a possible decreasing trend in CD4 cell count immediately following seroconversion in Italy which requires further investigation.

Objectives: To assess the effect of infection with hepatitis C virus (HCV) on the progression of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease, before and after the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART)., Methods: We used data from a multi-centre prospective study of HIV seroconverters. Survival analyses were performed to compare the progression to AIDS by HCV serostatus in the period before HAART (i.e. June 1991-May 1996) and in the HAART era (i.e. June 1996-June 2001), controlling for duration of HIV infection., Results: Among the 1052 persons enrolled, 595 (56.6%) were co-infected; the median follow-up time was 9.7 years. Adjusting for demographic variables (age at HIV seroconversion and gender), HCV infection had no effect on the progression to AIDS in the pre-HAART era [relative hazard (RH) = 0.84; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.63-1.11], whereas it increased the risk in the HAART era (RH = 1.77; 95% CI, 1.15-2.73). In the HAART era, the proportion of person-time spent on HAART out of the total time at risk was significantly lower among co-infected persons (30 versus 40% for non-co-infected persons; P-value = 0.001); no significant difference was found for dual-therapy (29 versus 25%, respectively; P-value = 0.205); a significant difference was found for mono-therapy (15 versus 8%, respectively; P-value < 0.001)., Conclusions: HCV infection was not a determinant of HIV disease progression in the pre-HAART era, whereas since the introduction of HAART, co-infected individuals seem to have had a faster disease progression. This may in part be explained by differences in person-time spent on different antiretroviral regimens.

Objectives: To evaluate the level of 90K as a predictor of AIDS; to describe 90K levels over time after HIV serconversion; and to evaluate the 90K level as a marker of the maturity of infection., Design: Prospective incident cohort of HIV-infected individuals with documented dates of seroconversion., Methods: Cox models were applied to estimate the crude and adjusted relative hazards (RH) of AIDS by level of 90K. Regression models were applied to describe the temporal trend and the correlates of the level of 90K over time after HIV-seroconversion. Logistic models were applied to evaluate the probability of a sample of 90K having been taken within a certain time period after HIV-seroconversion., Results: The study population consisted of 150 participants of the Italian Seroconversion Study. A total of 429 measurements of 90K were taken. Both early and later measurements of 90K were highly predictive of AIDS, also when adjusting for CD4 lymphocyte count and HIV load. The 90K level (U/ml) increased by 10% annually (95% CI: 7%-13%); the increase over time was linear. IDUs had higher 90K levels than heterosexuals and homosexuals over the course of HIV disease. High 90K levels were highly predictive of distant seroconversions (age-adjusted probability, 74%), whereas were poorly predictive of recent seroconversions (age-adjusted probability, 5%); the results were similar for the predictability of CD4 lymphocyte count., Conclusions: The level of 90K is a useful prognostic tool for clinical purposes. As a marker of the maturity of infection, 90K is similar to the CD4 lymphocyte count, with the advantage of being able to use serum instead of fresh whole blood. It has a good capacity to identify distant infections.

We evaluated the changes in the progression to death and AIDS and in the mean level of CD4 lymphocytes by calendar period in HIV-positive individuals before and after the introduction of HAART. Through data collected in a prospective cohort study (Italian Seroconversion Study) of 1899 HIV-infected persons with well estimated date of seroconversion, considered as time-zero of analysis, we calculated Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox models, allowing for staggered entries, to estimate the cumulative probability of survival and hazard-ratios (HR) for death and for AIDS by calendar period (1980-1996: pre-HAART era, 1997-1998: first HAART era, and 1999-2001: second HAART era), age at seroconversion, gender, and exposure category. During 17251 person-years, 660 HIV-positive patients developed AIDS and 510 died. Before 1997, the cumulative probability of survival, at twelve years from seroconversion, was 51.0%. In the period 1997-1998 the probability was 77.3% and in the period 1999-2001 it further increased at 91.2%. In the period 1980-1996 only older age at seroconversion was associated with more rapid progression to death. In the period 1987-2001 individuals infected through injecting drug use had a reduced increase of survival compared to those infected through sexual contact. Similar results were obtained for progression to AIDS. Finally we estimated an improved level of immunesuppression in the period 1987-2001. In fact, while in the period 1980-1996 we estimated a decrease of the CD4 lymphocites of -54.8 cells/mm3 (95% CI: -52.0; -57.6) per year; after 1996, we estimated an increase of CD4 of +39.6 (95% CI +34.1; +45.1)per year. This study provides strong evidence that the efficacy of the HAART estimated in the controlled clinical trials has resulted in a real reduction at the population level of morbidity and mortality.

Objective: To investigate the effect of isolated or concomitant infection with malaria and HIV on pregnancy and neonatal outcome., Methods: Data were collected on pregnant women admitted during the rainy seasons in the obstetric division of a district referral hospital in northern Zimbabwe in 2000 and 2001. The effects of malaria and HIV infection were determined by multivariate analysis., Results: The prevalence of HIV seropositivity and symptomatic malaria in 986 pregnant women was 8.3% and 14.7%, respectively. HIV-infected women were more likely to develop malaria attacks during pregnancy than seronegative women (odds ratio [OR] = 3.96, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.42-6.46). Malaria and HIV infections were associated with increased risk of stillbirth (OR = 4.74, 95% CI: 1.34-16.78) and preterm delivery (OR = 4.10, 95% CI: 2.17-7.75), respectively. They were independently associated with increased risk of low birth weight (malaria: OR = 10.09, 95% CI: 6.50-15.65; HIV: OR = 3.16, 95% CI: 1.80-5.54) and very low birth weight (malaria: OR = 5.04, 95% CI: 1.00-25.43; HIV: OR = 10.74, 95% CI: 2.12-54.41), low Apgar score (malaria: OR = 4.45, 95% CI: 1.42-13.94; HIV: OR = 5.94, 95% CI: 1.66-21.30), and fetal growth restriction (malaria: OR = 3.98, 95% CI: 2.51-6.30; HIV: OR = 4.07, 95% CI: 2.40-6.92). Dual infection with malaria and HIV was associated with increased risk of maternal, perinatal, and early infant death., Conclusions: Women with single HIV or malaria infection have a significantly increased risk of adverse outcomes of pregnancy and childbirth. Dual infection has additional detrimental effects on maternal and infant survival in an area where HIV and malaria coexist.

The effects of herpesviruses infection on the progression of HIV disease remain controversial, with some studies showing accelerated progression and others showing no effect. Furthermore, the effect of concurrent infection with more than one herpesvirus on the progression of HIV disease has never been investigated. To this end, the rates of progression of HIV disease were determined after stratifying for the presence of up to five different herpesvirus infections. The study population consisted of 359 HIV-infected persons for whom the date of seroconversion was estimated (part of the Italian Seroconversion Study). One serum sample from each participant was tested for antibodies to five herpesviruses: HSV-2, CMV, HHV-6, HHV-7, and HHV-8. Univariate analysis showed that HSV-2 and HHV-8 were significantly associated with progression to AIDS, yet when adjusting for age at HIV seroconversion and for the presence of the other herpesvirus infections, only HHV-8 infection showed a significant association. The age-adjusted risk of progression to AIDS with Kaposi's sarcoma increased with the number of herpesvirus infections and was significant in individuals with four infections. The risk of progression to AIDS without Kaposi's sarcoma also increased with the number of infections, although not significantly. Similar results were found when considering CD4+ cell count <200 x 10(6) cells/L as the endpoint. Concurrent infection with more than one herpesvirus does not appear to have a significant effect on the course of HIV disease, except for the known association between HHV-8 and Kaposi's sarcoma. However, even after excluding Kaposi's sarcoma from the AIDS-defining endpoints, a slightly increased risk for participants with four herpesvirus infections remained.

The efficacy of anti-herpetic drugs in decreasing HIV disease progression has not been clarified. We studied a cohort of 126 HIV-positive individuals with known date of seroconversion who were HSV-2-seropositive to determine if progression to AIDS was influenced by treatment with acyclovir. In the multivariate analysis, being homosexual and low CD4 count were associated with a faster progression to AIDS, whereas treatment with acyclovir showed a 37.0% protective effect compared to those who did not receive it when antiretroviral treatment was not included in the model. When including antiretroviral therapy, the protective effect of acyclovir decreased to 9.0% and that of antiretroviral therapy was 43.0% for monotherapy and 36.0% for double therapy, suggesting that most of the protective effect of acyclovir in the previous model was due to antiretroviral therapy. In conclusion, treatment with acyclovir does not seem to prolong significantly survival to AIDS among HIV-positive individuals who are HSV-2-infected.

Background: Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infections may be a risk factor for the transmission of HIV. Data on the prevalence of HSV-2 infection among HIV-positive individuals are scarce., Goal: The goal was to study the seroprevalence of and risk factors for HSV-2 infection among a cohort of Italian HIV-positive individuals., Study Design: This was a cross-sectional study. HSV-2 serologic testing was performed for individuals with known date of HIV seroconversion, on the serum specimen obtained on the date closest to the estimated date of seroconversion. Antibodies to HSV-2 (anti-HSV-2) were detected by a gG2-specific ELISA., Results: A total of 380 HIV-positive individuals were tested for anti-HSV-2; 126 (33.2%) of them were positive. Older age at HIV seroconversion and homosexuality were significantly associated with HSV-2 infection in the multivariate analysis., Conclusions: These data stress the need for including anti-HSV-2 testing and therapy in the management of HIV positivity, especially for reducing the risk of transmission of HIV through herpetic lesions.

Data from a cohort of HIV-positive individuals who were antiretroviral naive at enrollment were analysed to estimate the probability of discontinuing the first highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) regimen, comparing protease inhibitor- and non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase-containing regimens. Of the 2002 individuals who began HAART, 857 (42.8%) discontinued their first regimen. No statistically significant difference was found in the time to discontinuation by specific type of regimen, either when considered overall or by specific reason.

To assess whether the incidence of invasive cervical cancer (ICC) has changed as a result of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), we conducted a prospective cohort study on the incidence of ICC before and after the introduction of HAART among Italian women with a known duration of HIV infection. We estimated the incidence per 1000 person years of ICC as a first AIDS-defining disease for the periods 1981 through 1991, 1992 through 1995, and 1996 through 1998. We also estimated the incidence of other first AIDS-defining diseases. Kaplan-Meier and Cox models were applied to compare the periods 1981 through 1995 and 1996 through 1998 in terms of cumulative incidence and relative hazards (RHs). The analysis included 483 women (median follow-up: 7 years). In the period 1981 through 1995, a trend of increase was observed in the incidence of ICC and other AIDS-defining diseases; this trend has continued only for ICC, whereas the incidence of other AIDS-defining diseases has decreased since 1996. Compared with 1981 through 1995, the RH of ICC for 1996 through 1998 was 7.41 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.21--45.44); when adjusting for age at HIV seroconversion, the RH decreased to 4.75 (95% CI: 0.80--28.24). It remains to be determined whether the continued increase in ICC incidence after the introduction of HAART is attributable to a decreasing competitive mortality from other AIDS-defining diseases among HIV-infected women.

Objectives: To evaluate temporal trends of Kaposi's sarcoma (KS) and of the KS-related human herpesvirus (HHV-8) among homosexual men who seroconverted for HIV between 1984 and 1997., Methods: The study participants were 387 homosexual men. Changes over a period of time were assessed by estimating KS incidence rates per 1000 person-years for the periods 1984-1989, 1990-1992, 1993-1995, and 1996-1997. The proportional incidence of KS as the AIDS-defining disease for the same periods was also calculated. To evaluate a cohort effect of calendar period, Kaplan-Meier curves were used to estimate the risk of KS by period of HIV seroconversion [i.e. before 1990 (median year of seroconversion) versus later]. Relative hazards for the four periods were estimated using competitive-risks models. We also estimated HHV-8 seroprevalence over the study period., Results: Forty-eight participants developed KS. Between 1984 and 1995, the incidence rate of KS per 1000 person-years increased from 3.9 to 32.8, whereas the proportional incidence decreased from 33.3 to 24.3%. The risk of developing KS after HIV seroconversion did not change when comparing the seroconversion periods (i.e. before 1990 versus later). HHV-8 seroprevalence also remained stable. The rates of KS and the relative hazards dramatically decreased after 1995., Conclusions: Although KS incidence rates increased up to 1995, the proportional incidence decreased, due to the higher increase in rates of other AIDS-defining diseases. The finding that the risk of developing KS after HIV seroconversion remained stable over time is consistent with the stable trend of HHV-8 seroprevalence. The dramatic decrease in KS incidence rates after 1995 coincides with combined antiretroviral therapy.

Objective: To evaluate the cancer risk in southern European men with, or at risk of, HIV infection., Design: An analysis of longitudinal data to assess time-dependent rare events., Methods: Data from a cohort of HIV seroconverters, and from two hospital-based HIV seroprevalent cohorts were combined and analysed. The number of cancer cases observed was compared with the expected number, obtained from cancer incidence rates among men in the general population. Age-standardized incidence ratios (SIR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) were computed., Results: A total of 19,609 person-years of observation were accumulated among HIV-positive men, and 7957 person-years among HIV-negative men. Among HIV-positive men, statistically significant increased SIR were seen for Hodgkin's disease (HD) (SIR = 8.7), liver cancer (SIR = 11.0), and cancer of the salivary glands (SIR = 33.6). An excess of lung cancer was seen among intravenous drug users (IDU), but not among homosexual men. When the risk of all non-AIDS-defining cancers was considered, HIV-positive men had a nearly twofold excess (95% CI: 1.2-2.8). A risk of similar magnitude emerged among HIV-negative IDU (95% CI: 1.0-4.5), largely attributable to lung cancer and HD., Conclusion: These findings confirm that HIV infection increases the risk of HD, whereas they suggest that the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma may also be enhanced by HIV infection. The observation of an elevated risk of lung cancer in both HIV-positive and HIV-negative IDU points to personal behaviours unrelated to HIV infection.

A prospective study of 149 human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) seroconverters was conducted to describe trends and correlates of HIV-1 load after seroconversion and over time. HIV-1 load was quantified from frozen sera by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction. High early virus load was associated with lower CD4 cell counts and male sex but not with age at seroconversion or injection drug use. Early virus load predicted progression to clinical AIDS and AIDS/<200 CD4 cells/microL. Virus load exhibited a decline of 52% by 18 months after seroconversion then increased 23% annually (95% confidence interval, 13%-33%). Men and those developing AIDS during follow-up had higher virus loads over the course of disease. Persons who developed AIDS had a steeper virus load slope than those who were AIDS-free (P=.01). In long-term follow-up, virus load exhibited a gradual and sustained increase over time. Virus load and annual increase are strong predictors of disease progression.