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A successful centrist like Larry Hogan would be Democrats' worst nightmare next year. But he's bowed out. Will they try to guide GOP voters toward a (possibly) more beatable Trump? [...]

Republicans will want a referendum on Biden; Democrats, a referendum on Trump. But the economy may have other ideas. By this time next year, the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire [...]

In 2020, Republican opposition to Donald Trump was barely even whispered. Today, candidates are jockeying to get into the race against him. Nikki Haley's entry into the Republican presidential-nomination contest [...]

Running an 81-year-old for reelection may be the best worst option for his party. There is little ambiguity in the polling data. Large majorities of Americans do not want to [...]

Four years ago, the party apparatus was all his'there was not even a whiff of talk of a challenge to his renomination. Everything seems different this time. It is almost [...]

Editor-in-Chief Jeff Dufour and Cook Political Report's Charlie Cook discuss the 2024 presidential Republican field. In this bonus episode adapted from National Journals webinar series 'Cook Catch Up' Editor-in-Chief Jeff [...]

Neither side seems to be winning any new voters, as pessimism remains the dominant attitude. Any Democrat who thinks the party's better-than-expected November midterm-election outcome was an affirmation of President [...]

The Cook Political Report's Charlie Cook and Hotline Editor Kirk A. Bado on the nuts and bolts of the debt-ceiling battle. In this bonus episode of National Journal Radio adapted [...]

The parties are already consumed by recruiting top congressional challengers, and convincing their incumbents to stick around. The concept of 'off years' once meant relative political tranquility, save the occasional [...]

A GOP majority that's less beholden to business interests, coupled with a weakened president, leaves no guarantees for the U.S.'s creditworthiness. Business, community, and government leaders are growing increasingly alarmed [...]

It's now harder for the president to say he's a more responsible actor than Trump. After the fall election results, it's an incalculable gift to Republicans. Revelations that President Biden, [...]

Editor-in-Chief Jeff Dufour and Cook Political Report's Charlie Cook discuss the drama behind Kevin McCarthy's quest to be speaker. In this bonus episode adapted from National Journals webinar series 'Cook [...]

Divided government is almost never harmonious. But this year, it looks to be especially bitter. In the aftermath of the tumultuous election of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, it's difficult not [...]

It's not an election year. But it's one that may feature a battle for speaker, the indictment of a presidential candidate, and the usual drama out of Florida. If the [...]

With margins so close, even tiny changes can flip races'including the race for speaker. American politics are likely to be as wild in 2023 and 2024 as we have ever [...]

Her move to become an independent is much ado about very little... until the 2024 Arizona primary rolls around. It's odd that Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's Friday https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/2022/12/09/sen-kyrsten-sinema-of-arizona-why-im-registering-as-an-independent/69712395007/ that she's changing [...]

Voters were peeved at Biden's stewardship of the economy, but they were scared by the Dobbs decision and Jan. 6. Meanwhile, Republicans were afraid to break with Trumpism. Republicans have [...]

Kevin McCarthy is trying to lock down the speakership. But without Nancy Pelosi running the House, Chuck Schumer will assume more burden for governing. As we prepare to see the [...]

Poor candidates endorsed by (or inspired by) the former president sent persuadable voters running for Democrats in the states where it mattered most. It will take a while to unpack [...]

There is uncertainty heading into Election Day, but Democrats will be lucky just to keep losses to a minimum. It is certainly possible that Democrats keep their House losses under [...]

There may be even more twists and turns in store this midterm season. But in order to defy expectations, Democrats will have to buck their recent trend of underperformance in [...]

The Dobbs decision and the Trump show certainly helped Democrats this cycle. But probably not enough to escape the gravitational pull of Biden's stewardship of the economy. Whenever a very [...]

Partisans are highly motivated, and independents are highly conflicted. Offer predictions at your own peril. One thing on which strategists in both parties agree is that next month's elections will [...]

Midterms in the House are often about the team, not the player. In the Senate, however, the party that can best manage the weaknesses of its standard-bearers may come out [...]

Margins are razor-thin, and swing voters can't decide which party they're more mad at. So expect a lot more twists and turns before this thing is over. We've seen two [...]

Why predictions of the midterm results are likely to be wildly off the mark. In trying to figure out who is likely to win an election, it's important to remember [...]

Abortion and Trump may continue to aid them. But legislative wins are likely in the rearview, and upcoming economic reports could trip them up. Where this election goes next is [...]

Blowouts will be the exception rather than the rule in competitive Senate and governors' campaigns. Don't be surprised between now and the midterm elections to see most independent political prognosticators [...]

It was shaping up to be a standard midterm blowout suffered by the party in power. Then came summer. With control of both the Senate and the House very clearly [...]

The macro-political situation has changed much less than many believe, except that the enthusiasm gap between the two parties has closed. Fourteen months ago, even before President Biden's approval numbers [...]

The FBI's search of Mar-a-Lago is yet another element that takes the focus off of President Biden and the economy. In my mind is an image of a weathervane atop [...]

Republicans already seemed to underperforming, given the fundamentals. Now, Democrats are finally seeingtx some good news. Almost 50 years ago, Memorex introduced a new and even higher-quality audio tape with [...]

Given how bad a position Democrats find themselves in, shouldn't the GOP be faring better with four months to go? On paper, the November midterm elections should be a disaster [...]

Donald Trump's reemergence could benefit Democrats more than any other factor. At a time when very little if anything is 'normal' about American politics, we have come to expect the [...]

'Scandal porn' has run headlong into a disillusioned public that's come to expect the worst of their leaders. Many Democrats and progressives are almost apoplectic about what they see as [...]

Democrats are hoping that the midterms are about anything but inflation. It's too soon to make that call. Anyone who's sure they know what the midterm-election implications of the events [...]

The legendary political pundit passed away over the weekend at the age of 85. Last weekend was going to be sad, no matter what. Our beloved 14-year-old rescue mutt passed [...]

Biden is in a historically weak political position that may get even weaker. Meanwhile, Trump may not have the appetite for another nomination fight. Will our 2020 presidential nominee run [...]

The GOP is running desperate campaigns, marked by fear-mongering and manufactured issues. Yet thanks to their ideological overreach, a new poll reveals Democrats are viewed less favorably. I was shocked [...]

Republicans held 174 seats before their 1994 wave, but this year they already hold nearly 40 more seats. How much potential upside is there? Just as it is rare for [...]

From the hoodie-clad John Fetterman to the Turkish military veteran Dr. Oz, exotic candidates are now in demand. It seems that almost every week we see primary-election outcomes that not [...]

Democrats' underperformance likely means an overcorrection toward the right next year, just as Democrats overreached to the left. The latest nasty turn of events for Democrats is the release of [...]

Public opinion is nuanced on the issue, and time is on Republicans' side. Everyone has their own take on what impact a reversal of Roe v. Wade will have on [...]

The official release of 'This Will Not Pass' is an appetizer for the first marquee Senate primary of the cycle in Ohio. Like many other political aficionados, I have been [...]

Democrats' best hope going into the midterms is for something to change the narrative and put the focus on Republicans. The most likely thing is the Supreme Court overturning Roe [...]

The impressions and convictions of voters are malleable at first, but they gradually harden over time. Almost any conversation, email, or text-message exchange I have about the midterm election these [...]

History indicates that the Fed's response to inflation will cause a slowdown in the next two years'just in time for a presidential election and an unfavorable Senate cycle for Democrats. [...]

Political betting odds are far from perfectly predictive. But this year, they offer a good barometer on where the country stands. According to the https://www.predictit.org/markets/17/US-Elections, there is an 84 percent [...]

With the loss of centrists in each party, it isn't just ideological extremism that's running rampant. It's zealotry, too. The strength and stability that the American political process long displayed [...]

Should Russia become a pariah state, Putin will certainly seek to cozy up to China. But Xi may prefer to simply take Russia's place as the world's second great power. [...]