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In biodiversity conservation frameworks, determining surrogates for biodiversity is crucial for improving the effectiveness of biodiversity conservation and management. As plant functional composition can indicate variations in ecosystem functions and services, it could be used as an effective surrogate in biodiversity conservation planning. However, to the best of our knowledge, this metric has been rarely used in biodiversity conservation planning. To explore whether plant functional composition can be used as an effective surrogate for biodiversity conservation, we used a linear mixed regression model to investigate the relationships between plant functional composition (i.e., community-weighted means (CWMs) from the sPlot database) and the species richness of birds, mammals, and amphibians, and between plant functional composition and terrestrial conservation priority ranks (considering biodiversity conservation alone, or biodiversity, carbon, and water conservation together). Thereafter, we quantified the changing trends in these relationships across biomes using the least square method. We found that CWMs significantly affected species richness and terrestrial conservation priority ranks, based on the marginal R2 and conditional R2 values from the linear mixed regression model. Further, CWMs significantly affected species richness and terrestrial conservation priority ranks across different biomes of forests and shrublands. However, the nature of these effects (i.e., positive or negative) was dependent on biome type. These results suggest that functional composition can be considered as a biodiversity surrogate for conservation planning, and that biome-specific relationships should be considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Zoos and aquaria in the European Union (EU) can play a crucial role in the conservation of EU species, as they currently hold nearly half (49%) of EU terrestrial vertebrates. In this study, we analyzed the species composition and population sizes of EU zoos and developed a framework to prioritize recommendations for additional ex-situ and in-situ interventions for 277 at-risk EU species. Our results showed that EU zoos currently hold 39% of threatened EU species, 27% of EU endemic species, 62% of EU species vulnerable to climate change, 20% of EU species listed by the Alliance for Zero Extinction (AZE), 25% of Evolutionary Distinct and Globally Endangered (EDGE) EU species, while only 5% are subject to ex-situ conservation. Using our framework, we found that additional captive breeding was recommended for 60-61%% of species while expanding protected areas was recommended for only 2-22%, as 217 out of 277 species already met habitat protection targets. Both interventions were recommended for up to 20% of species, while the remaining 18% required no interventions because captive populations and habitat protection fully met targets. Our flexible framework can support more effective integrated conservation planning decisions for EU species and help identify target species for further in-depth assessment by the IUCN Ex-situ guidelines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Protected areas are referred to around the world as the basis of conservation strategies. Designation of marine protected areas (MPAs) is to preserve marine biodiversity and protect species, habitats in the seas, and oceans. The simulated annealing algorithm (SAA) with other algorithms (swap iterative improvement, normal followed by two step, two step iterative improvement, and normal iterative improvement) in MARXAN conservation solutions software and the multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) method were used to locate MPAs in the Southern Caspian Sea. Then, four methods were examined for site selection that include: (1) Simulated annealing algorithm, (2) MCE with zonal land suitability (ZLS), (3) MCE with compactness and contiguity, and (4) combined method of multi-criteria evaluation with spatial constraints and a simulated annealing algorithm (improved MCE). In the MCE method, we applied different weighted scenarios to locate MPAs. The criteria for determining the desired regions of MPAs included 12 factors gathered in three groups, including: (1) Ecological criteria (distribution of fish Huso huso, Acipenser persicus, Acipenser stellatus, Rutilus frisii kutum, and Alosa braschnikowi; location of coastal protected areas, distance from coastal rivers (Coastline), distance from estuaries and deltas); (2) Physical criteria (distance from the coast, shore sensitive areas); and (3) Socio-economic criteria (distance from densely populated coastal cities, distance from industries near the coast). The results of comparing the algorithms in MARXAN 4.0.6 software showed that the simulated annealing algorithm has a better ratio of border-length/area than other algorithms. Also, the combined method of MCE (improved MCE) selects the best protection patches in terms of location, taking into account the seascape ecology metrics (e.g., patch compactness, edge density, normalized entropy, area metric for patches). Moreover, the results of the comparison of four methods for proposing MPAs based on seascape metrics showed that the combined method of MCE considers a protection network with more contiguity and compactness than the simulated annealing algorithm. The use of seascape ecology can help to preserve and create larger and denser patches in the arrangement of protective areas, because such a selection of protective areas is nature-inspired and can be more bold and appropriate in the course of conservation planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Conservation planners use bioenergetic models to develop habitat objectives that satisfy energetic demands of waterfowl during nonbreeding periods. In turn, natural resource managers should estimate yield and availability of natural and cultivated waterfowl forage to monitor contributions to objectives and support adaptive resource management. Because bioenergetic models are particularly sensitive to unharvested flooded croplands, we developed a rapid methodology to estimate biomass of unharvested flooded corn (Zea mays) and tested our methodology in impounded corn fields planted and flooded in western Tennessee during autumn and winter of 2019–2021. We evaluated accuracy of our rapid assessment method and conducted simulations to assess variance‐bias trade‐offs relative to sample size. Rapid assessments lasted 20 min ± 10 minutes per field. Our rapid assessment method underestimated number of kernels per ear by 2.6% ± 0.5%. After adjusting for underestimation bias, corn biomass across all surveys was 5,500 kg/ha ± 250 kg/ha, which is similar yield to previous literature from waterfowl impoundment fields. Sampling 15 ears per field allowed field biomass to be estimated within acceptable accuracy (i.e., variance [SE] of mean percent error

Abstract Conservation planners often rely on heuristic indices when challenged with prioritizing potential projects under a constrained budget. This paper presents a comparative analysis of several prioritization indices (PIs) of culvert fish passage barriers, which can contribute to declines in anadromous fish populations. A federal injunction requires Washington state to restore 90% of habitat blocked by state‐owned culverts by 2030, prompting the development of numerous PIs, by various entities (i.e., counties, cities) within the injunction area. Our comparative analysis of PIs within the injunction Case Area investigates their ability to distinguish between barriers, their transferability in terms of scoring metrics, how scoring weights differ, and the preferences implied thereby. We document the use of six distinct PI methods by 10 entities and find that some PIs used many shared metrics, whereas others used a high percentage of unique metrics that would be difficult to replicate outside the entity's jurisdiction. Although habitat potential, habitat quantity, and connectivity were considered across all PIs, we found a high level of variation in terms of the metric weights. Our methods can be employed in other geographies or for other restoration PI planning efforts, and our results may facilitate the development and refinement of future PIs.

Spatially explicit biogeographic models are among the most used methods in conservation biogeography, with correlative species distribution models (SDMs) being the most popular among them. SDMs can identify the potential for species’ and community range shifts under climate change, and thus can inspire, inform, and guide complex and adaptive conservation management planning efforts such as collaborative transboundary conservation frameworks. However, SDMs are rarely developed collaboratively, which would be ideal for conservation applications of such models. Further, SDMs that are applied to conservation often do not follow best practices of the field, which are particularly important for applications in climate change contexts for which model extrapolation into potentially novel climates is necessary. Thus, while there is substantial promise, particularly among machine-learning based SDM approaches, there are also many pitfalls to consider when applying SDMs to conservation, and especially in the context of transboundary management under climate change. Here, we summarize these pitfalls and the key steps to mitigate them and maximize the promise of applying SDMs to facilitate transboundary conservation planning under climate change. We argue that conservation modeling capacity must be elevated among practitioners such that they can easily implement best practices when using SDMs, especially regarding: 1) avoiding model overcomplexity, 2) addressing input data bias, and 3) accounting for uncertainty in model extrapolations and projections. While our discussion centers mainly on the pitfalls and opportunities of applying the most popular correlative SDM algorithm, Maxent, our suggestions can also be generalized to a range of other SDM tools. Overall, improved training in, tools for, and implementation of best practices in biogeographic models such as SDMs hold great promise to facilitate and help guide complex, transboundary collaborations for long-term planning of conservation under climate change.

Ecological niche models (ENMs) can project changes in species’ distributions under climate change and thus inform conservation efforts and further our understanding of patterns of change. Predictions of species’ distribution shifts under climate change in topographically and geologically complex landscapes, such as karst landforms, should be improved by better integration of non-climate abiotic variables, such as karst geology or habitat structure, into model projections. We built ENMs for one of the limestone langurs, a group of leaf monkeys adapted to forests on the Sino-Vietnamese limestone karst landform. We collected occurrence localities for François’ leaf monkeys (Trachypithecus francoisi) and thinned them to avoid sampling bias. We included as environmental parameters a global dataset for karst geology and 19 bioclimatic variables derived from monthly temperature and precipitation at 30 arc-second resolution. ENMs including karst geology and climatic variables outperformed and differed spatially from climate-only models. Across six future-climate scenario projections, the optimal karst+climate model differed from the best climate-only model and predicted more spatial overlap with karst in the future, a contraction in total area of suitable habitat by the 2070s, and a small loss in the amount of suitable habitat in existing conservation areas. This study shows the importance of considering other abiotic factors beyond climate in projections of suitable habitat under climate change for species in complex landscapes. Because our results show that karst and climate interact to explain the distribution of a karst-adapted species, the results also suggest that, under climate change, these interactions are likely to produce altered networks of species into novel biological communities. Finally, our results support the need for conservation of limestone habitats and cross-border collaboration to maintain refuges and movement connectivity for endangered species in the face of climate change.

The Sino-Vietnamese border region is known for having unique and high levels of biodiversity. Global climate change is expected to alter the region’s climate and related changes in habitats and ecosystems will result in shifts in species’ distributions and increase the likelihood of local and global extinctions. Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are widely used to predict the magnitude of potential species distribution shifts in response to climate change and inform conservation planning. Here, we present climate-based ENM projections of future climatically suitable habitat for the Daguo Mulian tree (Magnolia grandis), a critically endangered species of high ecological and cultural value in the Sino-Vietnamese border region. Projections of modeled climatically suitable habitat for M. grandis, both for the 2050s and 2070s, suggest significant habitat loss within conservation areas, and a defining shift in the location of suitable habitat. Future projections are conservative and do not account for dispersal limitations or species interactions or other factors, and thus may overestimate potential shifts and underestimate losses. Our results suggest that current conservation management efforts for M. grandis, which include community forest conservation monitoring combined with nursery cultivation efforts, can continue to have success if implemented in an adaptive management framework with long-term research and monitoring to inform forward-thinking decisions with future climatic suitability in mind. The results also underline how endangered species’ distributions may shift across borders as they track suitable climates, emphasizing that nations will need to cooperate to effectively manage threatened species and habitats and prevent extinctions.

The Cao Vit Gibbon (Nomascus nasutus) is a critically endangered species of gibbon that was historically wide-ranging but is now known to occupy only one forest patch that straddles the China-Vietnam border. While past and current threats to the species include poaching and habitat destruction, the potential effects of global climate change on this species and its current habitat are still poorly known. Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) is often used to predict the risk of potential species distribution shifts in response to climate change and inform conservation planning including restoration and reintroduction efforts. Here, we present optimally tuned SDMs to predict climatically suitable habitat for N. nasutus, projected under a range of future climate change scenarios. Our SDMs showed high predictive performance and successfully predicted the current known range, but also showed expected areas of overprediction to a much wider area that likely reflects the historical distribution of the Cao Vit Gibbon across southern China and northern Vietnam. SDMs that projected across a range of future scenarios estimated an overall loss in total area of climatically suitable habitat, with the average value of about -23,000 km2 in 2041 – 2060 period and about -25,000 km2 in 2061 – 2080 period, compared to the current predicted range, but they also predicted the currently occupied Trung Khanh-Jingxi Forest as suitable across all future scenarios. Thus, some of the predicted climatically suitable areas that are close to the current known range may be worth targeting for future habitat restoration and population re-establishment and recovery efforts, while balancing other threats and management concerns.

The crop and crop wild relative (CWR) checklist of Lithuania was created containing 2630 taxa. The checklist comprises 1384 native taxa including archaeophytes and 1246 neophytes. In total, 699 taxa (26.6%) are defined for food and forage use. A list of 144 CWR priority species with 135 native species and archaeophytes and 9 naturalized species was generated. In total, 53 genera of food and forage species belonging to 15 families are represented by the priority CWR. Two approaches for CWR genetic reserve selection have been employed in this study: (1) CWR-targeted evaluation of preselected sites, including Natura 2000 sites, national protected areas, and other effective area-based conservation measures (OECMs), such as ancient hillfort sites and ecological protection zones of water bodies; (2) analysis of large georeferenced plant databases. Forty-five potential genetic reserve sites have been selected by the first approach covering 83 species or 57.6% of the national CWR priority list. With the second approach, the in situ CWR National Inventory database has been created by combining data from the Database of EU habitat mapping in Lithuania (BIGIS), Herbarium Database of the Nature Research Centre (BILAS), Lithuanian Vegetation Database (EU-LT-001), and Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF). Hotspot analysis of CWR species richness and number of observations suggested that higher CWR diversity is more likely to be found in protected areas. However, Shannon diversity and Shannon equitability indices showed that the areas outside of the protected areas are also suitable for CWR genetic reserve establishment.

Societal Impact Statement Conserving trees is fundamental to maintaining forests, which are home to about half of the global biodiversity and provide unmeasurable benefits to people. Colombia has 5868 known species of trees, 1148 of which are endemic to the country. Unfortunately, 45% of the endemic trees of Colombia are threatened with extinction, and therefore, the ecosystem services they provide might be in jeopardy. This study represents an important contribution to conservation planning for the endemic trees of a megadiverse country and highlights critical considerations for their conservation. Summary Colombia has a very rich tree flora and high levels of tree endemism. As a contribution to the “Global Tree Assessment”, we assessed 860 species to complete the Red List of the 1148 endemic trees of the country. The information is being used to support spatial conservation planning as Key Biodiversity Areas identification. To categorize the species according to the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List guidelines, we used geographic occurrences obtained from herbarium specimens. We carried out detailed analysis of habitat quantity and quality (using forest cover and human footprint maps) and documented anthropogenic threats and conservation actions. Almost half (45%) of the endemic trees were categorized as threatened. Most species had small distributions (with an extent of occurrence of less than 40,000 km2). Endemic tree occurrences were more common in the Andes and Magdalena regions, which have very high human footprint and consequently a large proportion of threatened species. The major threat to endemic trees was habitat destruction, due mainly to deforestation for livestock and crops. Many endemic trees were present in protected areas (65%), but threatened and non‐threatened species had low coverage with habitat protection, and many of their populations persist in disturbed habitats. Colombia has hundreds of threatened endemic trees, most of them in global biodiversity hotspots, with very few proactive conservation actions. It is urgent to increase the coverage of endemic tree populations in area‐based conservation strategies and to complement this with ex situ and other conservation actions.

The UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Goal 15, termed Life on Land, is monitored by indicators and sub-indicators that largely deal with forest extent. In countries with structurally complex and species-rich forests, indicators and sub-indicators of forest quality are also needed to effectively monitor and sustain ecological integrity. The goal of the paper is to demonstrate the use of complementary sub-indicators of forest quality for SDG15 reporting and conservation planning. Our objective is to apply these sub-indicators within Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru and evaluate spatial patterns and trends over time as a basis for revealing how the results complement the official indicators of forest extent and forest extent in protected areas in informing conservation. The sub-indicators of forest quality quantify naturalness, riparian forest, forest structure and integrity, forest fragmentation, and forest connectivity. We quantified change during 2000–2021 in these metrics and highlighted insights gained from the complementary sub-indicators of forest quality relative to the official sub-indicators based on forest extent,Forests covered about 60–70% of the forested ecoregions in each country in 2000 and this proportion declined in all three countries by approximately 4% by 2021. Only a subset of the forested area was of high forest quality. Natural forests represented about 40% of forests in Colombian and Ecuador in 2000 and 50% in Peru. Those proportions declined: by 6.3% in Colombia, 6.5% in Ecuador, and 3.4% in Peru. Even less of the forested area was Core Forest in 2013; less than 28% among countries. During 2013–2021, the proportion of forest that was Core decreased by 2.3% in Colombia, 4.5% in Ecuador, and 6.7% in Peru. Connected Forests were about 17–22% of forests among the countries in 2013 and declined 10.4% in Colombia, 1.6% in Ecuador, and 3.8% in Peru by 2021. Forests high in forest structure were 10–18% of forests in 2012 among the countries and increased by 1.1–2% by 2021. Forests of high integrity were 7–13% of forests in 2012 and increased by1.4–2% by 2021. Riparian forests represented less than about 7–9% among the countries and declined by 0.6–1.3% by 2021. Thus, the area of highly quality forest across the countries was substantially less than full forest extent and high-quality forest declined at a higher rate than forest extent during 2000–2021. Forest structure and integrity did increase slightly over this time period.Our results for trends in forest naturalness, riparian association, within stand structure, fragmentation, and connectivity demonstrate how consideration of forest quality provides a much stronger basis for evaluating success in meeting SDG15 targets than consideration of forest extent alone.

Abstract In natural resource and environmental management, well‐written objectives are critical for effective decision‐making and the achievement of desired outcomes. This article aims to improve practitioners' ability to identify and write SMART (Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, Time‐bound) objectives for natural resource and environmental management. We differentiate between research and management objectives, define each SMART criterion, and introduce a template to help write management objectives. We demonstrate the use of the SMART management objectives template with a hypothetical example and two recent applications. The template simplifies the process of writing SMART management objectives. It is applicable to popular management frameworks like management by objectives and structured decision making. The implementation of SMART criteria and the provided template can lead to better outcomes in natural resource and environmental management, benefiting current and future generations.

Zoos and aquaria in the European Union (EU) can play a crucial role in the conservation of EU species, as they currently hold nearly half (49%) of EU terrestrial vertebrates. In this study, we analyzed the species composition and population sizes of EU zoos and developed a framework to prioritize recommendations for additional ex-situ and in-situ interventions for 277 at-risk EU species. Our results showed that EU zoos currently hold 39% of threatened EU species, 27% of EU endemic species, 62% of EU species vulnerable to climate change, 20% of EU species listed by the Alliance for Zero Extinction (AZE), 25% of Evolutionary Distinct and Globally Endangered (EDGE) EU species, while only 5% are subject to ex-situ conservation. Using our framework, we found that additional captive breeding was recommended for 60-61%% of species while expanding protected areas was recommended for only 2–22%, as 217 out of 277 species already met habitat protection targets. Both interventions were recommended for up to 20% of species, while the remaining 18% required no interventions because captive populations and habitat protection fully met targets. Our flexible framework can support more effective integrated conservation planning decisions for EU species and help identify target species for further in-depth assessment by the IUCN Ex-situ guidelines.

Understanding the relationships between species and their pattern of coexistence is essential in conservation planning. Rüppell's fox and sand cat are two poorly known species of desert areas that coexist in most parts of the desert belt of Africa and the Middle East. However, their habitat selection in many parts of their distribution are unknown. In this research, using the data collected from a three-year monitoring plan, we investigated the relationship between the den sites of Rüppell's fox and sand cat and habitat variables based on the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) method. The results showed that for Rüppell's foxes, only the density of rodent burrows had a significant and positive effect. In the sand cat model, in addition to prey, vegetation density (P-value < 0.05) and vegetation height (P-value < 0.10) had significantly positive effects and elevation had a significantly negative effect (P-value < 0.10). We found that the sand cat is more specialized in habitat selection and depends more on the habitat cover. While the Rüppell's fox chose a more diverse range of soil and vegetation classes, the sand cat selected its den sites exclusively in sandy loam soils with the predominant cover of Haloxylon spp. and Caligonum spp. Acting as a generalist species, Rüppell's fox displayed a more pronounced response to human presence and selected dens with a broader view of their surroundings. These findings enhance our understanding of mesocarnivore coexistence in desert regions and provide valuable insights for the conservation planning of these species.

Protected areas (PAs) are crucial for supporting biodiversity and ecosystem services, but human pressure increasing within PAs, which remain poorly understood, will undermine this. Here, we used the human modification model to map the comprehensive human pressure for China and analyze its changes in nature reserves (NRs, the primary category of PAs in China) during 2000–2020. We found that human pressure within NRs showed decreasing trends with fluctuations, far lower than the whole country. But in eastern and northeastern China, human pressure within NRs has been increasing since 2000. NRs in China can be classified into the national, provincial, prefectural, and county levels, and an individual NR can be further classified into strictly protected core zones, buffer zones allowing limited human use, and experimental zones that examine different land uses. The stricter the management level of the NRs, the lower the human pressure. Our results show substantial progress in China's NRs management, but existing conservation actions are not enough for conservation targets. Strictly conservation areas must be expanded to promote conservation planning and complimented by multi-coordinated regional policy for biodiversity conservation.

A vast cross-societal effort will be needed to achieve the ambition of protecting and conserving 30% of the earth's lands and oceans by 2030, as called for in Target 3 of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. While focus is often given to the 30% coverage aspect of this target, other elements - on the location and effectiveness of protected and conserved areas - are equally important. As the implementation of Target 3 progresses, it is increasingly acknowledged that non-profit organisations, for-profit organisations, and individual landowners play a key role by choosing to manage their lands and waters to deliver conservation outcomes. However, privately protected and conserved areas lack recognition by many governments charged with reporting progress on the target. For countries and territories where these areas have been reported, we use the World Database on Protected Areas to explore their contribution towards elements of Target 3, particularly coverage, connectivity and ecological representation. In addition, we explore how privately governed 'other effective area-based conservation measures' contribute to Target 3 in countries and territories where they have been identified. Our results demonstrate that privately protected and conserved areas play a significant role in some countries' efforts to meet Target 3. Since these areas are known to be under-reported, we stress the need for scaled up efforts for their recognition and documentation. This is vital not only for Target 3 tracking and implementation, but to ensure private actors receive appropriate recognition and support for their role in tackling the biodiversity and climate crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effective biodiversity conservation requires robust and transparent prioritization of management actions. However, this is often hampered by a lack of spatially‐explicit data on habitat variables and empirical data on the effect of management actions. Although approaches exist that integrate structured expert elicitation (SEE) with species distribution models (SDMs) to encode species responses across habitat gradients, difficulties remain in predicting management outcomes under different settings, at a region‐wide scale when key habitat covariates are not spatially explicit. Therefore, we developed an approach to integrate SDMs with SEE to capture expert understanding of likely outcomes of management actions for individual frog species, and use this to spatially predict the effect of management actions. We demonstrate our approach across approximately 4000 wetlands in greater Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. As a measure of management effectiveness, we used the change in predicted probability of occurrence of seven frog species at wetlands 10 years after conservation actions are implemented (or not implemented). Management effect was elicited from experts under six scenarios. Individual expert estimates were aggregated using generalized linear models that were then used to spatially predict expected management effects, and a measure of uncertainty in the prediction, at all wetlands. Predicted management effect was strongly influenced by species initial probability of occurrence, with enhancing aquatic and surrounding vegetation an effective action for most species. We discuss practical challenges and recommend solutions in the integration of SDMs and SEE for the spatial prediction of management effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Understanding breeding success and site threat profiles is critical to conservation planning, particularly for species of conservation concern. Regular surveillance is fundamental to observing spatiotemporal changes at breeding colonies. Still, it can be challenging for species with broadly distributed, unpredictable populations susceptible to various threats. In these cases, cooperative networks and citizen science programs offer an opportunity to support monitoring and conservation efforts. Aims: This study aimed to assess the outcomes, threats and sources of breeding failure at Australian Fairy Tern (Sternula nereis nereis) colonies. Methods: Through collaborative surveillance, this study identified the outcomes and threats at 77 monitored colonies over five breeding seasons between 2017/18 and 2021/22. The leading causes of nest failure were then considered against the Recovery Plan for the Australian Fairy Tern to understand how the observed threats compare with the identified risks in this plan. Key results: Nearly half (48%) of all colonies failed, with predation (32%) and inundation (27%) being the biggest causes of failure. At least 10 native and four invasive/domestic species contributed to themortality of eggs, chicks, and/or adults or complete colony failure. Disturbance, including off-road vehicles, was identified as a recurring threat, impacting at least 30% of colonies. Conclusions: These identified threats have the potential to drive populationlevel effects and were consistent with those identified under the Recovery Plan. Implications. This study highlights the importance of developing practical solutions, including habitat protection, the control of invasive species and education programs to safeguard colonies and boost breeding success. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) are globally endangered, and their populations persist in several meta‐populations within fragmented landscapes across their distribution. Developing landscape‐level management plans for elephants requires reliable information on the pattern and determinants of their distribution across relevant spatial and temporal scales. The Brahmagiri‐Nilgiri‐Eastern Ghats Landscape (Nilgiri landscape) of peninsular India supports the largest breeding population of Asian elephants globally. The Wayanad Plateau, a wet forest tract in the dry forest‐dominated Nilgiri landscape, witnessed extensive forest fragmentation recently and evolved as a forest‐agriculture matrix. We predicted that habitat use by elephants in the Wayanad Plateau would be high during summer because of the availability of numerous perennial streams and associated swamps that retain water and soil moisture for plant growth over the dry season. We also hypothesized that elephants would use areas with greater forest cover that are removed from human settlements. We used an occupancy‐based approach that accounts for detection probability to understand factors influencing habitat use by elephants in summer (low rainfall, high temperature) and post‐monsoon (largely rainless winter conditions but with abundant forage and water) in 2019 and 2020. As expected, the intensity of habitat use was higher during the summer than during the post‐monsoon season. Elephants used habitats near perennial water sources and with greater forest cover, avoiding areas with high human disturbances. We emphasize the importance of areas that provide key resources for elephants during resource scarcity and the need to prevent habitat degradation for long‐term persistence of elephants and mitigation of human–elephant conflict. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sustainable management of living resources must reconcile biodiversity conservation and socioeconomic viability of human activities. In the case of fisheries, sustainable management design is made challenging by the complex spatiotemporal interactions between fish and fisheries.We develop a comprehensive metapopulation framework integrating data on species life‐history traits, connectivity and habitat distribution to identify priority areas for fishing regulation and assess how management impacts are spatially distributed. We trial this approach on European hake fisheries in the north‐western Mediterranean, where we assess area‐based management scenarios in terms of stock status and fishery productivity to prioritize areas for protection.Model simulations show that local fishery closures have the potential to enhance both spawning stock biomass and landings on a regional scale compared to a status quo scenario, but that improving protection is easier than increasing productivity. Moreover, the interaction between metapopulation dynamics and the redistribution of fishing effort following local closures implies that benefits and drawbacks are heterogeneously distributed in space, the former being concentrated in the proximity of the protected site.A network analysis shows that priority areas for protection are those with the highest connectivity (as expressed by network metrics) if the objective is to improve the spawning stock, while no significant relationship emerges between connectivity and potential for increased landings.Synthesis and applications. Our framework provides a tool for (1) assessing area‐based management measures aimed at improving fisheries outcomes in terms of both conservation and socioeconomic viability and (2) describing the spatial distribution of costs and benefits, which can help guide effective management and gain stakeholder support. Adult dispersal remains the main source of uncertainty that needs to be investigated to effectively apply our model to fisheries regulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As anthropogenic transformation of Earth's ecology accelerates, and its impacts on the sustainability of humanity and the rest of nature become more obvious, geographers and other researchers are leveraging an abundance of spatial data to map how industrialization is transforming the biosphere. This review examines the methodologies used to create such maps and how they have enhanced our understanding of how societies can abate biodiversity loss, mitigate climate change, and achieve global sustainability goals. Although there have been great advances over the past two decades in mapping industrial transformations of ecology across the planet, the field is still in its infancy. We outline future research directions to better understand anthropogenic transformation of the biosphere and the utility of integrating global maps of socioeconomic, ecological, biodiversity, and climate data to explore and inform potential pathways of human-driven social-ecological change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The primary objective of the key biodiversity areas (KBA) approach is to identify significant global areas for species conservation. Although it has been successful in identifying Important Bird Areas using a similar methodology, we have identified five limitations that may be applicable when considering other species: The KBA approach is excessively rigid in determining important conservation features, lacks adaptability in addressing landscape connectivity, introduces errors by applying global criteria without input from local experts, relying on post-analysis consideration of implementation opportunities and limitations, and does not automatically involve implementation agencies in the assessment process. To address these limitations, we propose three modifications to the existing approach: (1) Providing local stakeholders with training in regional conservation planning, (2) expanding the Alliance for Zero Extinction program to encompass a wider range of threatened species, and (3) allowing local stakeholders to nominate KBAs based on their own regional conservation assessments. These modifications would leverage the expertise of proponents of the KBA approach and contribute to the diversity of methods necessary for effective biodiversity conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sagebrush biome is a dryland region in the western United States experiencing rapid transformations to novel ecological states. Threat‐based approaches for managing anthropogenic and ecosystem threats have recently become prominent, but successfully mitigating threats depends on the ecological resilience of ecosystems. We used a spatially explicit approach for prioritizing management actions that combined a threat‐based model with models of resilience to disturbance and resistance to annual grass invasion. The threat‐based model assessed geographic patterns in sagebrush ecological integrity (SEI) to identify core sagebrush, growth opportunity, and other rangeland areas. The resilience and resistance model identified ecologically relevant climate and soil water availability indicators from process‐based ecohydrological models. The SEI areas and resilience and resistance indicators were consistent—the resilience and resistance indicators showed generally positive relationships with the SEI areas. They also were complementary—SEI areas provided information on intact sagebrush areas and threats, while resilience and resistance provided information on responses to disturbances and management actions. The SEI index and resilience and resistance indicators provide the basis for prioritizing conservation and restoration actions and determining appropriate strategies. The difficulty and time required to conserve or restore SEI areas increase as threats increases and resilience and resistance decrease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Protected areas (PAs) are a core component in global efforts to prevent further declines in biodiversity. We examine whether the United Kingdom's PA portfolio has reduced local extinctions of breeding birds and consider how the characteristics of different PA designations may have affected conservation outcomes. We use breeding bird atlas data to calculate the proportion of species in each 10 × 10‐km grid cell confirmed as breeding in 1988–1991 but not in 2008–2011. We find that the protection offered by PAs is little to no different from that of the wider landscape and, depending on the type of PA, attribute this to PAs being either too small or not managed for biodiversity outcomes. To meet the ambitious new global targets for expanding PA coverage set at the 15th UN Biodiversity Conference, all countries need to monitor and ensure PA effectiveness; high PA coverage does not guarantee that biodiversity is protected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many anthropogenic-driven changes, such as hunting, have clear and immediate negative impacts on wild primate populations, but others, like climate change, may take generations to become evident. Thus, informed conservation plans will require decades of population monitoring. Here, we expand the duration of monitoring of the diurnal primates at Ngogo in Kibale National Park, Uganda, from 32.9 to 47 years. Over the 3531 censuses that covered 15,340 km, we encountered 2767 primate groups. Correlation analyses using blocks of 25 census walks indicate that encounters with groups of black and white colobus, blue monkeys, and baboons neither increased nor decreased significantly over time, while encounters with groups of redtail monkeys and chimpanzees marginally increased. Encounters with mangabeys and L'Hoesti monkeys increased significantly, while red colobus encounters dramatically decreased. Detailed studies of specific groups at Ngogo document changes in abundances that were not always well represented in the censuses because these groups expanded into areas away from the transect, such as nearby regenerating forest. For example, the chimpanzee population increased steadily over the last 2 + decades but this increase is not revealed by our census data because the chimpanzees expanded, mainly to the west of the transect. This highlights that extrapolating population trends to large areas based on censuses at single locations should be done with extreme caution, as forests change over time and space, and primates adapt to these changes in several ways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Individual species often drive habitat restoration action; however, management under this paradigm may negatively affect non-target species. Prioritization frameworks which explicitly consider benefits to target species while minimizing consequences for non-target species may improve management strategies and outcomes. Objectives: We examined extents to which conifer removal, an approach frequently implemented to restore sagebrush ecosystems, can be conducted without detrimental effects to conifer-associated species, including the imperiled Pinyon Jay (Gymnorhinus cyanocephalus). Additionally, we prioritized sites for conifer removal, and predicted abundance responses for multiple species following simulated conifer removal at selected sites to achieve variable management objectives. Methods: We used model-predicted changes in species' densities following simulated conifer removal to identify optimal removal sites under single species, multi-species (ecosystem), and multi-ecosystem management scenarios. We simulated conifer removal at prioritized sites and evaluated resulting changes in abundance for six passerine species. Results: Management prioritized for a single species (Brewer's Sparrow) provided the greatest per-unit-effort benefits for that species but resulted in the lowest population outcomes for all other species considered. In comparison, prioritizations for multiple species within a single ecosystem (i.e., pinyon–juniper or sagebrush) resulted in larger population benefits for species associated with that ecosystem and reduced detrimental effects on non-target species associated with another ecosystem. For example, single species management for Brewer's Sparrow resulted in an average increase of 1.38% for sagebrush-associated species and a 4.58% decrease for pinyon–juniper associated species. In contrast, when managing for multiple sagebrush-associated species sagebrush-associated songbird populations increased by 3.98% and pinyon–juniper associated species decreased by 2.36%, on average. Conclusions: Our results illustrate single species management can result in detrimental outcomes and/or opportunity costs for non-target species compared to management designed to benefit multiple species. Our framework can be used to balance undesired consequences for non-target species and is adaptable for other systems and taxa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Trophic interactions underpin the structure of ecological communities by describing the rates at which consumers exploit their resources. The rates at which predators consume their prey are influenced by prey traits, with many species inducing defensive modifications to prey traits following the threat of predation. Here we use different clonal lines of the protist Paramecium being consumed by Stenostomum predators to highlight how differences in prey traits impact rates of predation. Clonal lines differed in their body width traits, and in their ability to induce changes in body width. By using a factorial cross of predator and prey abundances for different clonal lines we demonstrate how evolutionary or induced alterations in prey traits can impact the relative threat of predation. Our experiments show how interference among predators impacts predation rate, and how increased body width increased predator handling times. Given that reductions in the strength of interspecific interactions are associated with increased levels of overall community stability, our results indicate how individual level changes may scale up to impact whole communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biodiversity and human well‐being strategies are only as good as the set of ideas people think about. We evaluated value‐focused thinking (VFT), a framework that emphasizes creating objectives and strategies that are responsive to the objectives. We performed a proof‐of‐concept study of VFT with 6 conservation planning teams at a global conservation organization. We developed a package of materials related to VFT, including meeting–session agendas, a virtual facilitation template, facilitator's guide, and evaluation questionnaires. We used these materials to test whether VFT applied in a group setting resulted in high‐quality conservation strategies and participant satisfaction and whether our materials were scalable, meaning that someone newly trained in VFT could facilitate planning meetings that resulted in high‐quality strategies and participant satisfaction, as compared with an experienced VFT facilitator. Net response indicated positive compelling, feasible, creative, and representative ratings for the conservation strategies per team. Participants indicated satisfaction overall, although satisfaction was greater for objectives than for strategies. Among the participants with previous conservation planning experience, all were at least as satisfied with their VFT strategies compared with previously developed strategies, and none were less satisfied (p = 0.001). Changes in participant satisfaction were not related to facilitator type (experienced or inexperienced with VFT) (p > 0.10). Some participants had a preconceived sense of shared understanding of important values and interests before participating in the study, which VFT strengthened. Our results highlight the advantages of structuring the development and evaluation of conservation planning frameworks around VFT. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many range‐restricted taxa are experiencing population declines, yet we lack fundamental information regarding their distribution and population size. Establishing baseline estimates for both of these key biological parameters is however critical for directing conservation planning for at‐risk range‐restricted species. The International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List uses three range metrics that define species distributions and inform extinction risk assessments: extent of occurrence (EOO), area of occupancy (AOO) and area of habitat (AOH). However, calculating all three metrics using standard IUCN approaches relies on a geographically representative sample of locations, which for rare species is often spatially biased. Here, we apply model‐based interpolation using Species Distribution Models (SDMs), correlating occurrences with remote‐sensing covariates, to calculate IUCN range metrics, protected area coverage and a global population estimate for the Critically Endangered Philippine Eagle (Pithecophaga jefferyi). Our final range wide continuous SDM had high predictive accuracy (continuous Boyce Index = 0.934) and when converted to a binary model estimated an AOH as 28 624 km2, a maximum EOO as 617 957 km2, and a minimum EOO as 275 459 km2, with an AOO as 53 867 km2. Based on inferred habitat from the AOH metric, we estimate a global population of 392 breeding pairs (range: 318–447 pairs), or 784 mature individuals, across the Philippine Eagle global range. Protected areas covered 32% of AOH, 13% less than the target representation, with the continuous model identifying key habitat as priority conservation areas. We demonstrate that even when occurrences are geographically biased, robust habitat models can quantify baseline IUCN range metrics, protected area coverage and a population size estimate. In the absence of adequate location data for many rare and threatened taxa, our method is a promising spatial modelling tool with widespread applications, particularly for island endemics facing high extinction risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lebanon is a part of the Fertile Crescent recognized for its agrobiodiversity wealth in terms of both cultivated plants and crop wild relatives (CWR) diversity. Within the context of climate change and its adverse effect on agrobiodiversity, conservation of CWRs in Lebanon is essential to prevent the loss of potentially useful genetic diversity and to facilitate their use in crop breeding. To establish a comprehensive conservation plan for Lebanese CWR belonging to Poaceae and Fabaceae, in this study we prioritized 16 taxa based on their value for world security and local economy, gene pool (primary and secondary) and genome type (A, B and D for Triticum genera). Georeferenced occurrence data of populations belonging to the prioritized taxa list were retrieved from different sources and imported into QGIS to visualize by mapping their distribution in-situ and ex-situ on the Lebanese territory, highlighting sites with highest density per genus and sites characterised by the highest taxa richness. The analysis allowed to identify Lebanese areas that still need further surveying actions (mainly the south-west parts of the country) and showed that priority taxa had different distribution pattern independently from genus. Bekaa and Baalbak governorates were evaluated to include sites represented with highest taxa richness, which makes them preliminary contenders to be included within in-situ conservation actions. This study provided a foundation for further research into the conservation planning of crop wild relatives belonging to Poaceae and Fabaceae in Lebanon by identifying areas with highest taxa richness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding how wildlife responds to altered ecosystems is an important conservation objective. Urban green spaces may support wildlife communities, but their internal and external environments vary substantially. Golf course design and management generally follow standardized best practices, and thus frequently contain similar ecological features. However, studies investigating their conservation value have produced discordant conclusions; therefore, we hypothesize that external environmental factors significantly affect their utility for wildlife. We used acoustic detectors to survey bats at eleven golf courses across a gradient of landscapes (urban, agricultural, and forested) over two years. We used generalized linear mixed models to examine how landscape features surrounding golf courses relate to bat activity. For most species, bat activity was greater on golf courses when the surrounding landscape contained fewer open spaces and more developed land. We conclude that golf courses situated in developed landscapes may provide important foraging habitat for bats. Notably, several species of conservation concern were more active on courses with larger patches of nearby forest. Given that management resources are finite, we recommend using the surrounding landscape to assess the conservation potential of golf courses and allocating effort to improve habitat on golf courses that are most likely to benefit bats and other wildlife. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The many Gondwanic vegetation types found across the extensive latitudes and elevation gradients of South America's southern cone contribute to Chile's global biodiversity hotspot ranking. Species loss in global biodiversity hotspots is an ongoing climate change concern and land managers need spatially explicit climate risk maps to adapt conservation strategies to climate change in these areas. We modeled future climate risk for Chile's terrestrial vegetation using a high-resolution vegetation map and tested the relationship to climate risk for each type's latitudinal and elevation range. We found that 43.6% of all vegetation has high climate risk in Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5). All forest types in the country, including Southern Beech (Nothofagus sp.), Alerce (Fitzroya cupressoides), Araucaria (Araucaria araucana), and Sclerophyllous, as well as the Valdivian rainforest, Altiplanic Steppes, and Salares, face high levels of climate risk. Tests for trends in risk across elevation and latitude showed that exposure for all types increased with elevation based on the MIROC5 GCM, and decreased with latitude based on the Had2GEM-ES GCM. Our results suggest that vegetation types with smaller latitudinal ranges typically have higher levels of climate risk, but a type's elevation range is not significantly correlated with risk of exposure. We identified climatically stable areas which could act as vegetation refugia in Patagonia, the central Andes mountains between latitudes 27.5°S and 32.5°S, and some coastal areas. Conservation strategies in Chile should include the protection of climatically stable areas to safeguard current Gondwanic biodiversity and active habitat restoration in climatically exposed areas to facilitate vegetation shifts.

The fencing of protected areas is increasing worldwide. However, the implementation of fences for conservation has outpaced scientific assessment of their effectiveness, non-target impacts, and long-term costs. We assessed landscape predictors of fence crossing sites and employed camera traps over a one-year period to investigate wildlife responses to a conservation fence around Lake Nakuru National Park, Kenya. Specifically, we measured the impact of the fence on wild mammal movement, and the temporal impacts of fence maintenance on wildlife crossings and behavior. Cameras captured more than 65,000 detections of animals approaching fences, with 3626 observed crossings over 2818 trap nights at 19 sites. Using these data, we developed a guide to classifying fence-specific mammal behaviors. Thirty-eight wild mammal species approached known weak points in the fence, and 27 species were recorded crossing the fence. No single environmental variable predicted detection or fence crossing points for all species, but seasonality, human activity, habitat visibility, and proximity to an adjacent protected area were each correlated with species-specific crossing locations. Additionally, breaches of repaired fence-crossing locations occurred within days of maintenance. We conclude that popular, ‘one-size-fits-all’, conservation fence designs may be ineffective and costly for restraining movement of many wildlife species. We recommend that those deploying conservation fences start with clearly articulated management goals, that fence maintenance be informed by taxa-specific tendencies to breach fences, and that managers consider the strategic creation of wildlife corridors, overpasses, or ungulate-proof fences to link fenced protected areas with surrounding habitat.

The fencing of protected areas is increasing worldwide. However, the implementation of fences for conservation has outpaced scientific assessment of their effectiveness, non-target impacts, and long-term costs. We assessed landscape predictors of fence crossing sites and employed camera traps over a one-year period to investigate wildlife responses to a conservation fence around Lake Nakuru National Park, Kenya. Specifically, we measured the impact of the fence on wild mammal movement, and the temporal impacts of fence maintenance on wildlife crossings and behavior. Cameras captured more than 65,000 detections of animals approaching fences, with 3626 observed crossings over 2818 trap nights at 19 sites. Using these data, we developed a guide to classifying fence-specific mammal behaviors. Thirty-eight wild mammal species approached known weak points in the fence, and 27 species were recorded crossing the fence. No single environmental variable predicted detection or fence crossing points for all species, but seasonality, human activity, habitat visibility, and proximity to an adjacent protected area were each correlated with species-specific crossing locations. Additionally, breaches of repaired fence-crossing locations occurred within days of maintenance. We conclude that popular, ‘one-size-fits-all’, conservation fence designs may be ineffective and costly for restraining movement of many wildlife species. We recommend that those deploying conservation fences start with clearly articulated management goals, that fence maintenance be informed by taxa-specific tendencies to breach fences, and that managers consider the strategic creation of wildlife corridors, overpasses, or ungulate-proof fences to link fenced protected areas with surrounding habitat.

Effective, resilient and strategic protected area networks are essential to protect biodiversity and human welfare, especially in vulnerable biodiversity hotspots. This is the case in the Brazilian Cerrado, the richest tropical savanna, and a deforestation front worldwide. Worryingly, the rate of habitat conversion in Cerrado greatly reduces opportunities to conserve its biodiversity. Herein, using the most comprehensive database on the distribution of Cerrado endemic terrestrial vertebrates, we mapped conservation priority areas and evaluated how and to what extent habitat loss and fragmentation reduce conservation opportunities. Priority areas are scattered throughout the Cerrado. Larger priority areas are concentrated in the northern portion of the region. Southern priority areas are small, scattered, and isolated. During the last 35 years, opportunities to conserve large contiguous areas have significantly decreased, hampering the representation of key endemic species. However, as most endemic vertebrates are small ranged, modest but well located increments in total protected area will result in significant overall improvements in the PA system. Protecting the largest priority areas identified here is urgent and mandatory, while using habitat restoration as a key activity to promote connectivity among smaller priority areas, especially in the southern portion of this hotspot.

The Cao Vit Gibbon (Nomascus nasutus) is a critically endangered species of gibbon that was historically wide-ranging but is now known to occupy only one forest patch that straddles the China-Vietnam border. While past and current threats to the species include poaching and habitat destruction, the potential effects of global climate change on this species and its current habitat are still poorly known. Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) is often used to predict the risk of potential species distribution shifts in response to climate change and inform conservation planning including restoration and reintroduction efforts. Here, we present optimally tuned SDMs to predict climatically suitable habitat for N. nasutus, projected under a range of future climate change scenarios. Our SDMs showed high predictive performance and successfully predicted the current known range, but also showed expected areas of overprediction to a much wider area that likely reflects the historical distribution of the Cao Vit Gibbon across southern China and northern Vietnam. SDMs that projected across a range of future scenarios estimated an overall loss in total area of climatically suitable habitat, with the average value of about -23,000 km2 in 2041 – 2060 period and about -25,000 km2 in 2061 – 2080 period, compared to the current predicted range, but they also predicted the currently occupied Trung Khanh-Jingxi Forest as suitable across all future scenarios. Thus, some of the predicted climatically suitable areas that are close to the current known range may be worth targeting for future habitat restoration and population re-establishment and recovery efforts, while balancing other threats and management concerns.

The Sino-Vietnamese border region is known for having unique and high levels of biodiversity. Global climate change is expected to alter the region’s climate and related changes in habitats and ecosystems will result in shifts in species’ distributions and increase the likelihood of local and global extinctions. Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are widely used to predict the magnitude of potential species distribution shifts in response to climate change and inform conservation planning. Here, we present climate-based ENM projections of future climatically suitable habitat for the Daguo Mulian tree (Magnolia grandis), a critically endangered species of high ecological and cultural value in the Sino-Vietnamese border region. Projections of modeled climatically suitable habitat for M. grandis, both for the 2050s and 2070s, suggest significant habitat loss within conservation areas, and a defining shift in the location of suitable habitat. Future projections are conservative and do not account for dispersal limitations or species interactions or other factors, and thus may overestimate potential shifts and underestimate losses. Our results suggest that current conservation management efforts for M. grandis, which include community forest conservation monitoring combined with nursery cultivation efforts, can continue to have success if implemented in an adaptive management framework with long-term research and monitoring to inform forward-thinking decisions with future climatic suitability in mind. The results also underline how endangered species’ distributions may shift across borders as they track suitable climates, emphasizing that nations will need to cooperate to effectively manage threatened species and habitats and prevent extinctions.

Ecological niche models (ENMs) can project changes in species’ distributions under climate change and thus inform conservation efforts and further our understanding of patterns of change. Predictions of species’ distribution shifts under climate change in topographically and geologically complex landscapes, such as karst landforms, should be improved by better integration of non-climate abiotic variables, such as karst geology or habitat structure, into model projections. We built ENMs for one of the limestone langurs, a group of leaf monkeys adapted to forests on the Sino-Vietnamese limestone karst landform. We collected occurrence localities for François’ leaf monkeys (Trachypithecus francoisi) and thinned them to avoid sampling bias. We included as environmental parameters a global dataset for karst geology and 19 bioclimatic variables derived from monthly temperature and precipitation at 30 arc-second resolution. ENMs including karst geology and climatic variables outperformed and differed spatially from climate-only models. Across six future-climate scenario projections, the optimal karst+climate model differed from the best climate-only model and predicted more spatial overlap with karst in the future, a contraction in total area of suitable habitat by the 2070s, and a small loss in the amount of suitable habitat in existing conservation areas. This study shows the importance of considering other abiotic factors beyond climate in projections of suitable habitat under climate change for species in complex landscapes. Because our results show that karst and climate interact to explain the distribution of a karst-adapted species, the results also suggest that, under climate change, these interactions are likely to produce altered networks of species into novel biological communities. Finally, our results support the need for conservation of limestone habitats and cross-border collaboration to maintain refuges and movement connectivity for endangered species in the face of climate change.

In this study, we (a) formulated a general hypothesis about how wetland (functional and structural) traits influence avian diversity, (b) turned this hypothesis into a non-parametric Bayesian network, (c) disentangled the direct and indirect effects of the variables influencing waterbird species, and (d) simulated the changes expected to the levels of avian diversity as a result of numerous counterfactual and management scenarios. We applied our framework to the Sicilian wetlands as a whole; then, we downscaled simulations locally to a wetland of particular interest (Pantano Bruno). We found that (1) waterbird species are highly sensitive to wetland traits; (2) wetland traits have both direct and indirect effects upon alpha avian diversity; (3) the direct and indirect effects of wetland traits can be contrasting; (4) water level fluctuations (benefit), diversions (cost), and salinity (cost) are key factors for waterbird conservation; (5) these wetlands have the potential for hosting a level of alpha avian diversity that is double the baseline (from 19 to 38 species); (6) these wetlands are prone to ecological collapse if all traits deteriorate (from 19 to 6 species per wetland); and (7) the ecological information gained at the regional scale can be properly downscaled to the local scale to make inferences on single wetlands.

A vast cross-societal effort will be needed to achieve the ambition of protecting and conserving 30% of the earth’s lands and oceans by 2030, as called for in Target 3 of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. While focus is often given to the 30% coverage aspect of this target, other elements – on the location and effectiveness of protected and conserved areas – are equally important. As the implementation of Target 3 progresses, it is increasingly acknowledged that non-profit organisations, for-profit organisations, and individual landowners play a key role by choosing to manage their lands and waters to deliver conservation outcomes. However, privately protected and conserved areas lack recognition by many governments charged with reporting progress on the target. For countries and territories where these areas have been reported, we use the World Database on Protected Areas to explore their contribution towards elements of Target 3, particularly coverage, connectivity and ecological representation. In addition, we explore how privately governed ‘other effective area-based conservation measures’ contribute to Target 3 in countries and territories where they have been identified. Our results demonstrate that privately protected and conserved areas play a significant role in some countries’ efforts to meet Target 3. Since these areas are known to be under-reported, we stress the need for scaled up efforts for their recognition and documentation. This is vital not only for Target 3 tracking and implementation, but to ensure private actors receive appropriate recognition and support for their role in tackling the biodiversity and climate crises.