101. Modeling tuberculosis transmission flow in China
- Author
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Shiming Cheng, Maogui Hu, Jinfeng Wang, Li Wang, Chengdong Xu, Wei Chen, and Jiajun Qiao
- Subjects
Tuberculosis ,Transmission (mechanics) ,Flow (mathematics) ,law ,Computer science ,Real-time computing ,medicine ,medicine.disease ,China ,law.invention - Abstract
Background: China has the largest population and third largest number of tuberculosis cases in the world. Tuberculosis still remains a major public health concern in China. The increasing floating population has become an important part of China’s socioeconomic process and brought the potential risk for infectious disease transmission in the huge population. Both the flow of tuberculosis population in the country and the role of massive floating population in tuberculosis transmission are yet unclear.Methods: 14,027 tuberculosis flow data were derived from the new smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis cases in China in 2012, provided by the nationwide Infectious Disease Reporting System. Spatial interaction model was used to model the tuberculosis flow and the regional socioeconomic factors.Results: The Pearl River Delta in southern China and the Yangtze River Delta along China’s east coast presented as the largest destination and concentration areas of tuberculosis inflows. Socioeconomic factors were determinants of tuberculosis flow. A 10% increase in per capita GDP was associated with 2.1% decrease in tuberculosis outflows from the provinces of origin, and 0.5% increase in tuberculosis inflows to the destinations and 18.9% increase in intraprovincial flow. Per capita net income of rural households and per capita disposable income of urban households were positively associated with tuberculosis flows. A 10% increase in per capita net income corresponded to 3.6% increase in outflows from the origin, 12.8% increase in inflows to the destinations and 47.9% increase in intraprovincial flows. Tuberculosis incidence had positive impacts on tuberculosis flows. A 10% increase in the number of tuberculosis cases corresponded to 1.1% increase in tuberculosis inflows to the destinations, 2.0% increase in outflows from the origins, and 2.2% increase in intraprovincial flows. A 10% increase in the tuberculosis incidence rate was associated with 9.9% increase in tuberculosis intraprovincial flows. In addition, the tuberculosis flow had a significant spatial dependence and positively affected tuberculosis flows in the neighboring regions.Conclusions: Tuberculosis flows had clear spatial stratified heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation; regional socio-economic characteristics had different and statistically significant effects on tuberculosis flows in the origin and destination, and income factor played an important role among the determinants.
- Published
- 2020
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