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Observed patterns of species richness at landscape scale (gamma diversity) cannot always be attributed to a specific set of explanatory variables, but rather different alternative explanatory statistical models of similar quality may exist. Therefore predictions of the effects of environmental change (such as in climate or land cover) on biodiversity may differ considerably, depending on the chosen set of explanatory variables. Here we use multimodel prediction to evaluate effects of climate, land-use intensity and landscape structure on species richness in each of seven groups of organisms (plants, birds, spiders, wild bees, ground beetles, true bugs and hoverflies) in temperate Europe. We contrast this approach with traditional best-model predictions, which we show, using cross-validation, to have inferior prediction accuracy. Multimodel inference changed the importance of some environmental variables in comparison with the best model, and accordingly gave deviating predictions for environmental change effects. Overall, prediction uncertainty for the multimodel approach was only slightly higher than that of the best model, and absolute changes in predicted species richness were also comparable. Richness predictions varied generally more for the impact of climate change than for land-use change at the coarse scale of our study. Overall, our study indicates that the uncertainty introduced to environmental change predictions through uncertainty in model selection both qualitatively and quantitatively affects species richness projections.

Observed patterns of species richness at landscape scale (gamma diversity) cannot always be attributed to a specific set of explanatory variables, but rather different alternative explanatory statistical models of similar quality may exist. Therefore predictions of the effects of environmental change (such as in climate or land cover) on biodiversity may differ considerably, depending on the chosen set of explanatory variables. Here we use multimodel prediction to evaluate effects of climate, land-use intensity and landscape structure on species richness in each of seven groups of organisms (plants, birds, spiders, wild bees, ground beetles, true bugs and hoverflies) in temperate Europe. We contrast this approach with traditional best-model predictions, which we show, using cross-validation, to have inferior prediction accuracy. Multimodel inference changed the importance of some environmental variables in comparison with the best model, and accordingly gave deviating predictions for environmental change effects. Overall, prediction uncertainty for the multimodel approach was only slightly higher than that of the best model, and absolute changes in predicted species richness were also comparable. Richness predictions varied generally more for the impact of climate change than for land-use change at the coarse scale of our study. Overall, our study indicates that the uncertainty introduced to environmental change predictions through uncertainty in model selection both qualitatively and quantitatively affects species richness projections.

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) is a great medical challenge and its incidence rises rapidly. T lymphocytes and their cytokine production are supposed to play a major role in T1D development. So far, there is no potent tool to recognize the early signs of cellular auto-reactivity which leads to β-cell damage. The naïve immune system of the newborn (not yet influenced by external factors) can be used as an important model for T1D pathogenesis studies. Cord blood samples of 22 healthy neonates born at term to a diabetic parent (T1DR) and 15 newborns with no family history of any autoimmune disease (controls) were collected. Determination of 23 cytokines was performed before and after the stimulation with diabetogenic autoantigens using protein microarray. We observed lower basal production of all detected cytokines in the T1DR group - granulocyte/macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF) (P = 0.025), growth regulated protein (GRO) (P = 0.002), GRO-α (P = 0.027), interleukin (IL)-1-α (P = 0.051), IL-3 (P = 0.008), IL-7 (P = 0.027), IL-8 (P = 0.042), monocyte chemoattractant proteins (MCP)-3 (P = 0.022), monokine-induced by IFN-γ (MIG) (P = 0.034) and regulated upon activation normal T-cell express sequence (RANTES) (P = 0.004). Exclusively lower post-stimulative levels of G-CSF (P = 0.030) and GRO-α (P = 0.04) were observed in controls in comparison with the basal levels. A significant post-stimulative decrease in G-CSF (P = 0.030) and MCP-2 (P = 0.009) levels was observed in controls in comparison with T1DR neonates. We also observed the interesting impact of the risky genotype on the protein microarray results. Protein microarray seems to be a useful tool to characterize a risk pattern of the immune response for T1D also in newborns. © 2007 The Authors.

Contains fulltext : 50765.pdf (publisher's version ) (Closed access), Keratin 8 (KRT8) is one of the major intermediate filament proteins expressed in single-layered epithelia of the gastrointestinal tract. Transgenic mice over-expressing human KRT8 display pancreatic mononuclear infiltration, interstitial fibrosis and dysplasia of acinar cells resulting in exocrine pancreatic insufficiency. These experimental data are in accordance with a recent report describing an association between KRT8 variations and chronic pancreatitis. This prompted us to investigate KRT8 polymorphisms in patients with pancreatic disorders. The KRT8 Y54H and G62C polymorphisms were assessed in a cohort of patients with acute and chronic pancreatitis of various aetiologies or pancreatic cancer originating from Austria (n=16), the Czech Republic (n=90), Germany (n=1698), Great Britain (n=36), India (n=60), Italy (n=143), the Netherlands (n=128), Romania (n=3), Spain (n=133), and Switzerland (n=129). We also studied 4,234 control subjects from these countries and 1,492 control subjects originating from Benin, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Ecuador, and Turkey. Polymorphisms were analysed by melting curve analysis with fluorescence resonance energy transfer probes. The frequency of G62C did not differ between patients with acute or chronic pancreatitis, pancreatic adenocarcinoma and control individuals. The frequency of G62C varied in European populations from 0.4 to 3.8%, showing a northwest to southeast decline. The Y54H alteration was not detected in any of the 2,436 patients. Only 3/4,580 (0.07%) European, Turkish and Indian control subjects were heterozygous for Y54H in contrast to 34/951 (3.6%) control subjects of African descent. Our data suggest that the KRT8 alterations, Y54H and G62C, do not predispose patients to the development of pancreatitis or pancreatic cancer.

Contains fulltext : 51133.pdf (publisher's version ) (Closed access), Chronic pancreatitis is a common inflammatory disease of the pancreas. Mutations in the genes encoding cationic trypsinogen (PRSS1) and the pancreatic secretory trypsin inhibitor (SPINK1) are associated with chronic pancreatitis. Because increased proteolytic activity owing to mutated PRSS1 enhances the risk for chronic pancreatitis, mutations in the gene encoding anionic trypsinogen (PRSS2) may also predispose to disease. Here we analyzed PRSS2 in individuals with chronic pancreatitis and controls and found, to our surprise, that a variant of codon 191 (G191R) is overrepresented in control subjects: G191R was present in 220/6,459 (3.4%) controls but in only 32/2,466 (1.3%) affected individuals (odds ratio 0.37; P = 1.1 x 10(-8)). Upon activation by enterokinase or trypsin, purified recombinant G191R protein showed a complete loss of trypsin activity owing to the introduction of a new tryptic cleavage site that renders the enzyme hypersensitive to autocatalytic proteolysis. In conclusion, the G191R variant of PRSS2 mitigates intrapancreatic trypsin activity and thereby protects against chronic pancreatitis.

Contains fulltext : 49189.pdf (publisher's version ) (Closed access), BACKGROUND: Xenobiotic mediated cellular injury is thought to play a major role in the pathogenesis of pancreatic diseases. Genetic variations that reduce the expression or activity of detoxifying phase II biotransformation enzymes such as the UDP-glucuronosyltransferases might be important in this respect. Recently, a UGT1A7 low detoxification activity allele, UGT1A7*3, has been linked to pancreatic cancer and alcoholic chronic pancreatitis. OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether UGT1A7 polymorphisms contribute to the risk of pancreatitis and pancreatic cancer. METHODS: Genetic polymorphisms in the UGT1A7 gene were assessed in a large cohort of patients with different types of pancreatitis and pancreatic cancer originating from the Czech Republic (n = 93), Germany (n = 638), Netherlands (n = 136), and Switzerland (n = 106), and in healthy (n = 1409) and alcoholic (n = 123) controls from the same populations. Polymorphisms were determined by melting curve analysis using fluorescence resonance energy transfer probes. In addition, 229 Dutch subjects were analysed by restriction fragment length polymorphism. RESULTS: The frequencies of UGT1A7 genotypes did not differ between patients with acute or chronic pancreatitis or pancreatic adenocarcinoma and alcoholic and healthy controls. CONCLUSIONS: The data suggest that, in contrast to earlier studies, UGT1A7 polymorphisms do not predispose patients to the development of pancreatic cancer and pancreatitis.