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This paper estimates the effects of decolonization on bilateral trade by exploiting the end of colonial linkages between the United Kingdom and Hong Kong in 1997 and between Portugal and Macau in 1999. The two-year gap between these two historical events creates an exogenous time variation in colonial separations across colonial pairs to implement the differences-in-differences strategy. The results show that if a colonial relationship breaks up, then the imports from the former colonial counterpart increases by 42 percent and the post-colonial trade share increases by 0.29 percentage points. Further investigations suggest that the large and positive effects of decolonization on the post-colonial imports are largely operated through mechanisms of income and exchange rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article highlights that Sweden and Finland have long perceived the costs of joining NATO to be higher than the benefits which focused on bilateral security relationships with each other, the United States and the United Kingdom, and on multilateral formats such as Nordic Defence Cooperation and the European Union. It also discusses that stockholm's calculations were somewhat subtler, Unlike Finland, Sweden has no land border with Russia.

We construct a dynamic bilateral monopoly game to analyze the bargaining between a foreign manufacturer and a domestic retailer regarding the wholesale price and explain the foreign upstream firm's corporate social responsibility (CSR) initiative and its economic impacts on the domestic market. Under free trade, the foreign upstream firm's CSR initiative realizes improvements in consumer surplus and social welfare in the home country. A "win–win–win" strategy exists, as the foreign manufacturer has more of an incentive to implement CSR when the government implements a strategic trade policy. The consumer-friendly action implemented by the foreign upstream firm leads to adequate consumer welfare and social welfare, which mitigates the government's political hostility. With the high bargaining power of the foreign upstream firm and the low weight of the consumer-friendly upstream firm, the government should set a higher tariff rate for the foreign upstream firm to extract rent and enhance social welfare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper intends to establish conceptual foundations for analyzing the economic dimensions of a territorial military conflict. The Intraregional Trade Disruption from War Simulator (ITDW-Simulator) attempts to estimate the heterogeneous macroeconomic effects of the military conflict. The model suggests two primary indicators and four secondary indicators. The final trade suffocation index (TS-Index) and the final investment desgrowth from war function (− δ w) measure trade disruption's potential impact on international trade patterns and economic development. The agriculture exports, industrial and manufacturing exports, service exports, and FDI flows capture the trade and investment interdependency. The model investigates the impact of the Russo-Ukraine military conflict on the bilateral trade and investment between the Russian Federation and the European Union. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a major carbon emitter and a strong exporter, China enjoys a great trade surplus, but the production of exports has caused a large amount of carbon emissions. Scientific calculation of the value loss caused by carbon emissions is of great significance to green development under the 'dual carbon' goals. This study built an embedded multi-regional input-output table to analyze the current status of the import and export trade-embodied carbon emissions of China' s 30 provinces at the bilateral trade level and industry level, and used the value of carbon emission permits to measure the net environmental losses of each province in foreign trade. Based on the benefits of trade in value-added, this study further examined the green trade benefits of China' s provinces. The results showed that from the perspective of bilateral trade, the export trade embodied carbon of China' s provinces was mainly transferred from the United States and the European Union, and the import trade embodied carbon was mainly transferred to Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, Mexico, and Turkey (BRIIMT). The provinces with a relatively large embodied carbon in trade with ASEAN were mainly located in the southwest region. The provinces with a relatively large embodied carbon in trade with BRIIMT were mainly located in the northern region, and the provinces with a relatively large embodied carbon in trade with Japan and South Korea were mainly located in the eastern region. From the perspective of industry, the export trade embodied carbon was concentrated in the manufacturing industry and the production and supply industries of electricity and heat, accounting for more than 70% of the total, and the industrial structure of each province had certain differences. The import trade embodied carbon was concentrated in the production and supply industries of electricity and heat and the transportation industry, accounting for about 63% of the total. After introducing the value of carbon emission permits, the green trade benefits of 30 provinces in China were reduced by 0.94% compared to the benefits of trade in value-added. As a net exporter of embodied carbon, 28 provinces in China bore net environmental losses in foreign trade. Among them, Xinjiang and Gansu had the highest proportions of environmental net loss. The proportions were 69.29% and 57.43%, respectively. Seven provinces, including Tianjin and Jilin, not only lost the benefits of trade in value-added, but also suffered from the environmental pollution caused by the embodied carbon in net export trade. According to the conclusion, this study puts forward suggestions to vigorously develop clean energy, promote differentiated emission targets between provinces and optimize the structure of foreign trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to China's trade surplus with Europe, a significant imbalance exists between east- and westbound freight traffic on the China Railway Express (CR-Express). Many trains and containers return empty to China (i.e., empty backhaul), which leads to wasted freight capacity and significant economic loss. This paper presents an innovative, passenger service-like (PSL) mode, for improving the backhaul operations of CR-Express trains. The rationale for the proposed PSL CR-Express backhaul is verified through the multiple bilateral trade surpluses that exist along the CR-Express route, with which the corresponding container freight demand of each trade pair is estimated. A programming model is built to minimize the gap between the total costs of empty and PSL backhaul, and the freight revenue of PSL backhaul by determining the routes, stations visited, and cargo that needs handling for each train at each station. The numerical results show that, under the optimal scheme, the gap is −3.186 million USD/week for the balanced backhaul trains, and that 5148 FEU of cargo and 1662 FEU of empty containers will be transported in a week. Thus, we argue the proposed mode can more effectively utilize backhaul train capacity, which facilitates the sustainable growth of the CR-Express. • The multiple bilateral trade surpluses along the CR-Express route are calculated. • Passenger service like (PSL) mode is suggested for CR-Express backhaul. • Method for urban transit network design is adopted to optimize the PSL CR-Express backhaul network. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because electricity retailers must ensure that energy supply matches end-user demand, electricity that is not traded through bilateral contracts is typically traded in power exchanges which are subject to great price volatility. In Colombia, the spot price is a reflection of climate variability because approximately 70% of the country's electricity is generated by large hydropower stations. In this study, we forecast 2018′s prices and calculated its corresponding purchase margins using the 2015 to 2017 bilateral contract prices for electricity plus power exchange price information and climate information. Our forecasts included climate uncertainty and evaluated two multi-period portfolio methods for deciding among three purchasing strategies: bilateral contracts in the regulated market, bilateral contracts in the non-regulated markets, and purchases in the power exchange. The results indicate that retailers should follow a middle course that is neither conservative nor risky. Creation of portfolios independent of the multi-period method can balance purchases through bilateral contracts and in the power exchange in a way that considers climatic uncertainty. This type of balanced portfolio could control medium-term risks of price volatility and result in good levels of purchase margins. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exchanges of products and services in bilateral industries may be accompanied by environmental and economic inequalities which lead to imbalanced situations in relation to environmental protection and economic development. In a close trade relationship between two countries such as Australia and China, their industries inevitably affect each other. This study maps the embodied CO2 emissions and value added in bilateral trade under the input--output model and measures the unequal exchanges in such trade using an originally established industrial environ-economic balance index. The bilateral trade between Australia and China is taken as an example to validate the outcomes of the research method. The results indicate that in 2014, Australia transferred 580.90 billion tons of CO2 and 105.85 billion USD of value added to China, while approximately 375.65 billion tons of CO2 and 25.15 billion USD of value added flowed from China to Australia. China's manufacturing, construction, and services and other industries, and China's and Australia's real estate activities industries had net inflows of embodied CO2 emissions and value added, indicating these industries paid economic costs in return for reducing environmental pressure. In inter-industrial trade between Australia and China, 49 pairs of bilateral industrial trades were relatively fairly balanced, while the remaining 15 pairs of inter-industrial trades were imbalanced. The established environ-economic balance analysis method and quantitative findings are valuable for better understanding the environment impacts of the economic development of national economies and developing national policies in corresponding to the rising environmental issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyzes aggregate data on trade flows to examine the performance of bilateral free trade agreements (BFTAs) between the United States and 11 BFTA nations in a two-dimensional approach. In line with the literature, this study applies the gravity model and analyzes the effect of the treatment using Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) panel data from 1992 to 2017. We use the PPML as an alternative methodology to an ordinary least squares model, as it can treat zero trade values and lead to unbiased estimates and different consistencies. We consider the trade in goods but excluded services because of the different nature of trade for services. Moreover, this study highlights the quantitative performance of BFTAs without considering the industry level to compare the overall benefits for the trade flows from the U.S. as an exporter to BFTA countries and vice versa. It thus adds to the debate on the effect of FTAs on trade flows and conducts pre-FTA and post-FTA analyses to compare the volumes of exports and imports during both periods. Findings vary according to the direction of trade; notably, some trading partners increased their trading volume to 388%. In sum, this paper provides a collective current state assessment to demonstrate the most plausible reasons for the effects of the 11 BFTAs, in addition to informing policymakers on the lessons learned from each BFTA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aimed to investigate spatial interdependence in bilateral trade activities of Tuna commodities in the ASEAN+2 countries and compare the gravity panel model and hybrid model in explaining the bilateral trade. The gravity panel model estimated the conservative "pushing and pulling the flows" factors, whereas the hybrid model was used to perfect the gravity panel model in capturing the relevance of spatial interdependence. Results showed the presence of spatial interdependence in the bilateral trades among ASEAN+2 countries for Tuna commodities. Through the hybrid model, the third-country effect was found to originate from three spatial lag of independent variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the factors important for bilateral services trade between Kazakhstan and other countries. The subject of this article is trade in services in Kazakhstan. Our goal is to determine the factors significantly affecting trade in services in Kazakhstan. Our central hypothesis is that the Eurasian economic union (EAEU) membership was not essential for trade in services in Kazakhstan. The main result is that external trade in services is mainly influenced by factors such as the distance between Kazakhstan and partner countries and the GDP growth rate of partner countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses the new panel data structural gravity equations to examine the impact of China's Belt and Road Initiative in two dimensions, namely trade and migration on participating countries. By leveraging the Poisson pseudo‐maximum likelihood estimator with fixed‐effects to address both endogeneity and omitted variables, our results highlighted the importance of accounting for the regional economic integration in Africa, Europe, and Asia. The model assesses 65 countries, including 30 sub‐Saharan economies from the period 2000–2018. The findings of our study indicate that migration has a significant impact on the flow of bilateral trade. We also observed that the East African Community regional trade agreements have a significant negative effect on intra‐blocs trade under the Belt and Road Initiative. Therefore, a comprehensive policy agenda needs to be developed to enhance migration and trade‐promoting policies among the participating economies of Africa to engender African growth from a win‐win perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The most common provisions we find in almost all multilateral, regional and bilateral trade agreements are the exception clauses that allow countries to protect public morals, humans, animals or plant health and life and conserve exhaustible natural resources. If countries can allow trade-restrictive measures that aim to protect these non-economic interests, is it possible to negotiate a specific exception to justify measures that are aimed at protecting women's economic interests as well? Is the removal of barriers that impede women's participation in trade any less important than the conservation of exhaustible natural resources such as sea turtles or dolphins? In that context, this article prepares a case for the inclusion of a specific exception that can allow countries to leverage women's economic empowerment through international trade agreements. This is done after carrying out an objective assessment of whether a respondent could seek protection under the existing public morality exception to justify a measure that is taken to protect women's economic interests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 15 years following the 2008–2009 global financial crisis witnessed increasing questioning in the global North of the distribution of the gains and costs of an open world economy and the multilateral rules-based trade order. Difficulties in (re-)negotiating trade agreements in the World Trade Organization led states to shift even more of their focus to reciprocal and bilateral trade agreements as these internalize benefits among partners by continuing to maintain trade barriers against non-signatories (mostly emerging economies). There is a vigorous debate across academic disciplines whether such agreements help to increase participation in global value chains (GVCs) by signatory nations and the magnitude and incidence of the associated economic, social and environmental impacts – positive or negative. These are questions calling for rigorous empirical research that assesses impacts against appropriate baselines and counterfactuals and investment in data collection, monitoring and evaluation by participating governments. Mischaracterizing both the extent to which trade agreements constrain the ability of states to regulate and reports published by international organizations on GVCs and trade agreements detracts from where the focus arguably should be: providing compelling empirical evidence that GVCs and trade agreements detrimentally affect social reproduction and specific suggestions on how the design of trade agreements should be changed to improve outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Free trade between the United States and Mexico is credited with having developed one of the largest bilateral trading relationships in the world. Yet Mexico-United States trade has been significant for more than a century. Our objective is to show how bilateral trade increased independently of the trade agreement that took effect in 1994, and to specify the other reasons why trade grew. We measure trade flows from the 1880s to the present and estimate a gravity model for the period 1948-2006. The gravity model shows that the fundamental characteristics of Mexico and the United States explain the volume of trade independently of the trade agreement. The trade agreement reduced uncertainty which likely had a positive effect on trade flows. Our analysis does not estimate the quantitative impact of reduced uncertainty but shows that proximity and size of the market were more significant that the trade agreement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vietnam and India became exceptional friends in the context of globalization and global and regional security in the Indo-Pacific Ocean. India paid a significant consideration to South East Asia and expanded its role in this region in the early 21st century. Meanwhile, Vietnam is one country that experienced a thriving economy in its international and regional integrations. This country has a pressing demand for bilateral and multilateral cooperation with all countries in the world. Especially, the objective of rising India's soft power along with its hard power contributed to promoting India's benefits and involvement in Southeast Asia and Vietnam. Likewise, Vietnam has been fully aware of India's intervention in disputes in the South China Sea and its well-meaning plans to tighten relations with Vietnam over various fields. Vietnam considered India as a partner to conduct Vietnam's soft power. Since Strategic Partnership (2007), Vietnam has accelerated this relation through cultural exchanges, cultural projects, and shared values of Indian culture. Thus, the image of Vietnam becomes familiar to Indian people. Likewise, India encouraged Vietnam to hold cultural events and academic seminars to exchange ideologies, opinions, and plans for many domains. Vietnam is also a goal of India's soft power in Southeast Asia. This paper aims to examine cultural diplomacy in Vietnam's foreign policy in Vietnam–India diplomatic relations mainly based on theories of Liberalism, public diplomacy, and soft power. Thus, it clarifies cultural diplomacy in Vietnam and India's foreign policy. Finally, the author would like to anticipate the scenario of Vietnam–India cultural diplomacy in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research investigates the extent to which countries use public standards as a means of political retaliation in the international policy arena. We match World Trade Organization notifications of Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) standards with SPS committee data on Specific Trade Concerns and annual, bilateral trade flows to test whether countries targeted with a public standard respond with a trade barrier of their own. We find that this type of retaliatory behavior exists for economically strategic goods. Our results suggest that about 1000 bilateral trade flows globally—or just over $11.8 billion in trade—were subject to retaliatory standards in 2015. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main goal of this article is to identify which aspect of trade drives positive attitudes towards the trading partner country. Whereas research has shown a positive influence of trade already, it is not clear whether total trade, trade balance, exports or imports is the best variable to predict attitudes. Furthermore, we investigate whether different sorts of the traded good do impact attitudes differently. As attitudes are formed on an individual level, we estimate that goods whose origins are visible to the individual customer do have greater impact than goods with no visible origins. In our analysis we use data from the Global Attitudes Survey from the Pew Research Center to measure attitudes towards the European Union (EU) and data from UN Comtrade to measure trade with the EU. Our results show that imports from and total trade with correlate significantly with attitude towards the EU, whereas exports to the EU and the bilateral trade balance do not. Given that imports are a part of total trade, we argue that imports are the best variable to predict attitudes. Additionally, we found that it is the import of differentiated goods that impacts attitudes whereas the import of homogeneous goods does not. We argue therefore that positive attitudes towards a trading partner are driven by individual experiences of consumers with products from the respective countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Virtual water trade (VWT) is the trade of water 'embodied' in a product. This paper explores the extent to which bilateral tariffs, World Trade Organization (WTO), and Regional Trade Agreements (RTA) reshape the trade of water across nations and alleviate water scarcity issues. To achieve this goal, we built a panel database on blue (irrigation water) and green (rainwater) VWT among paired trading countries from 1998 to 2002. Using a standard gravity model, we study how the bilateral tariff and WTO/ RTA affect the intensity of blue and green VWT. The results indicate that, on average, a 1% tariff reduction increases the green virtual water trade by 0.219%. In most waterstressed countries, a 1% reduction in tariffs increased blue VWT by 0.416% and green VWT by 0.424%. By crops, we find that tariffs had a negative effect on VWT for the less water-intensive crops, but a positive effect or no effect on the more water-intensive crops. We further find in the most water-stressed countries, RTA facilitated VWT. As a climate mitigation strategy, water-scarce countries can increase VWT, thus reducing the production of water-intensive crops, by lowering tariff rates independently or through trade agreements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a large panel of official bilateral loan data for 111 borrowing countries and 73 lending countries between 1985 and 2020, the paper shows that international government borrowing from bilateral sources is acyclical with respect to the business cycle of the borrower but procyclical with respect to the cycle of the lending country. This result holds in the case of loans from advanced economies and China, currently the largest supplier of official bilateral lending to the average developing country. We find this form of procyclicality most notable during contractions in origin countries and most often among middle-income recipient countries across most world regions. We also find that bilateral loans follow economic links captured through bilateral trade. The results are consistent across a battery of robustness tests. • Official bilateral lender is procyclical with respect to the origin's business cycle. • Official bilateral lending can add volatility to the recipient country. • Procyclicality is stronger in official bilateral lending originating in China. • Procyclicality has been stronger since the global financial crisis of 2008. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The globalization process is assumed to have progressively decreased the effect of geographical distance on worldwide flows of goods, services and people. However, the gravity literature on international trade has traditionally failed to deliver consistent estimates of the diminishing effects of distance on bilateral trade. This controversial issue has been coined the distance puzzle. Gravity models on international tourism demand predict a negative effect of distance on tourism movements, and the concept of distance decay is well established in tourism literature. However, the likely existence of a distance puzzle in tourism has not yet been explored. By estimating a structural gravity model for worldwide tourism flows, we explore distance elasticity dynamics for the period 1995–2019. Afterwards, substitutability between domestic and international tourism is considered, showing that once globalization has been properly accounted for by measuring international tourism costs in relation to domestic ones, the distance puzzle disappears. However, the results are sensitive to the income level of countries, revealing that low-income countries are being excluded from the benefits of the globalization process. • Distance elasticity and international border dynamics for tourism has not been investigated. • A structural gravity model for worldwide tourism between 1995 and 2019 is estimated. • We confirm the existence of an international border and the distance puzzle for tourism. • Once globalization has been properly accounted for, the distance puzzle disappears. • Low-income countries are being excluded from the benefits of the globalization process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The discussions between countries on trade inequality and ecological inequality have become increasingly heated, making cooperation on air pollution governance a priority. Based on the global multiregional input‒output (MRIO) model for calculating Sino-US trade-embodied air pollution (TEAP), an economic compensation mechanism is introduced into a differential game model. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) In bilateral Sino-US trade, the TEAP transferred from the United States to China is 6.85 times that transferred from China to the United States, showing serious ecological inequality. (2) The optimal TEAP emissions are influenced only by domestic factors in the noncooperative game, while they are jointly controlled by factors from both countries in the cooperative game. The optimal compensation coefficient is also influenced by factors from the two countries in the noncooperative game. In addition, the optimal TEAP stock and optimal investment stock are positively correlated with the initial stock under the two game scenarios. (3) Through numerical simulation, compared with the noncooperative game with economic compensation, the cooperative game without economic compensation can significantly reduce the optimal TEAP emissions and optimal TEAP stock; however, this reduction requires more governance investment. Consequently, China and the United States should comprehensively consider the advantages and disadvantages of the two governance strategies to maximize their overall economic benefits on the basis of basic fairness. • The Eora database and the MRIO are used to calculate the air pollutants embodied in Sino-US trade. • The TEAP is applied into the numerical analysis to exploring the optimal governance strategies. • The economic compensation mechanism is incorporated into the governance. • Consider the joint investment scenario between China and the United States. • Evaluate the governance effectiveness of economic compensation mechanisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China-ASEAN are the two huge markets in trade world, they can bring out greater dynamism from within their economies and contribute to regional economic development. This study explores the present situation on the trade between the Central region of China and ASEAN through empirical assessment and try to find the potential effects and trade flows between them. Firstly, we analysis the trade integration index, HM index, explicit comparative advantage index, and trade complementarity index. Finally, we use the gravity model of international trade and data on 2006–2018. The bilateral trade relations between the central region and ASEAN are getting closer, but the central region has not yet become the major trade area of ASEAN countries in the Chinese market. The bilateral economic development level plays a positive role in promoting the export trade between the Central region and ASEAN, while the bilateral distance plays a negative role in difficulty. The empirical results show that trade potential between the Central region and Indonesia and the Philippines is huge, and there is still opportunity for the development of the trade potential with Thailand. The trade prospective with Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam is limited, and new approaches need to be developed to achieve further trade cooperation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper explores the role of colonial heritage on long-term economic development from a resource-curse perspective. The authors investigate the impact of colonial exports on long-term economic development through two channels: (1) a direct impact of the economic dependency on natural resources and (2) an indirect impact via its effect on colonial institutions, which persisted over time and influenced current economic development. Design/methodology/approach: To address this issue, the authors use an original data set on French bilateral trade from 1880 to 1912. The authors use partial least square structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) in the empirical analysis, so that the authors are able to construct latent variables (LVs) for variables that are not directly observable, such as the quality of institutions. Findings: The authors find that exports of primary goods to France had a negative impact on colonial institutions and that for French colonies, this impact was driven by minerals exports. Despite its impact on colonial institutions, exports of French colonies had no significant indirect impact on their current institutions. The authors find no significant direct impact of colonial trade on current development for French colonies. Finally, colonial exports of manufactured products had no significant impact on colonial institutions among French colonies and a positive impact among non-French ones. Research limitations/implications: Research implications regarding the findings of this paper are, namely, that the relative poor performance within French colonies today cannot be attributed to the extraction of raw materials a century ago. However, human capital and institutional development, instead of exports, are more relatively important for long-term growth. Some limitations in trying to determine the simultaneous relationship among colonial trade, institutions and economic performance are the relation between colonial trade and the extent of extraction from the colonizer, which is hard to quantify, as well as its precise mechanism. Practical implications: Since the initial institutions set in those former colonies presented a strong persistence in the long run, their governments should focus now on building sound and inclusive political and economic institutions, as well as on investing in human capital in order to foster long-term growth. Once a comprehensive set of institutional and human resources are put in place, the quality and quantity of exports might create a positive spillover on the short-run growth. Social implications: One social implication that can be retrieved from this study is the ever-lasting effect of both human capital investment and introduction of inclusive political and economic institutions on the long-run impact of growth. Originality/value: The paper uses an original primary data set from archival sources to explore the role of colonial heritage on long-term economic development from a resource-curse perspective. It applies a relatively new model partial least squares path modeling (PLS-PM) that allows the construction of LVs for variables that are not directly observable, as well as channeling the impact on growth through both direct and indirect channels. Finally, it allows for the simultaneous multigroup analysis across different colonial groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Identifying agricultural disaster risk regions before the occurrence of climate-related disasters is critical for early mitigation planning. This paper aims to identify these regions based on data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the bilateral and multilateral trade network data of the World Integrated Trade Solution(WITS) and the agent-based economic model Acclimate. By applying a uniform forcing across agricultural sectors of some breadbasket regions (US, EU and China), when single and simultaneous extreme weather events occur, such as the 2018 European heatwave, production and consumption value losses and gains are calculated at regional and global levels. Comparing the FAO data sets, WITS, and Acclimate's production value losses, the results show a strong dependence of agricultural production losses on a region's output and connectivity level in the global supply and trade network. While India, Brazil, Russia, Canada, Australia, and Iran are highly vulnerable, the imposition of export restrictions to compensate for demand shortfalls makes Sub-Saharan Africa the most vulnerable region, as it is heavily dependent on agricultural imports. In addition, simultaneous extreme weather events can exacerbate the loss of value of agricultural production relative to single extreme weather events. Agricultural practices to increase production such as smart farming, increased investment in plantation agriculture, and diversification of trading partners can help mitigate future food security risks in Sub-Saharan Africa and other agricultural import-dependent regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Chinese government has proposed a new development model called Dual Circulation, which, we argue, is a response to the upsurge of trade protectionism in recent years, as well as an acceleration of China's long-planned restructuring of its economy. Our input-output analysis reveals the inferior global distributional position of China and the dire consequences it faces from a counterfactual US-China trade decoupling. Specifically, China on average transferred out about 9 percent of its abstract labor during 2010–14, and it stands to lose 2.5 percentage points in its growth rate and over 10 million jobs if the United States and China completely transfer their bilateral trade to other partners. JEL classification : B51, O24, D57 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyzes how bilateral trade between Turkey and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries has been affected by the immigrant flows from Turkey to OECD countries. The main objective is to unveil which channels of foreign trade are affected by immigrant flows from Turkey to OECD countries. Most empirical studies examining the static relationship between international migration and bilateral foreign trade take advantage of panel gravity models. This paper outlines a new approach on using a dynamic panel gravity model to analyze the dynamic relationship between international migration and bilateral foreign trade. This study tests the impact of immigrant flows from Turkey to OECD countries on bilateral foreign trade between countries from 2000-2016 for the first time using the system GMM estimation method. The evidence from this study indicates the relationship between bilateral foreign trade and immigrant flows from Turkey to OECD countries from Turkey to have complementarity. In addition, this study's findings indicate immigration flows from Turkey to OECD countries to contribute to the exports from immigrants' host countries and to increase Turkey's imports. The results show these immigrant flows to be effective by means of networking channels in terms of foreign trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cooperative vehicle platooning enabled by connected automated vehicle (CAV) technology has shown to bring various benefits including energy savings and a reduction in driving effort. Nevertheless, because these benefits vary over different platoon positions, vehicles from different owners may not be willing to platoon together; even if they form a platoon, they may attempt to change positions. To address such a behavioral-instability issue, it is necessary to redistribute the benefits among platoon members. To this end, this study investigates a decentralized multi-agent system where individually rational agents form platoons through peer-to-peer coordination under designated mechanisms that simultaneously determine the benefit reallocation. Depending on whether the scope of coordination is one-to-one or many-to-many, we introduce two types of mechanisms based on the bilateral trade model and one-sided matching. As the privacy of information sharing in the decentralized system is a common concern in practice, we further discuss two settings under each mechanism, differing by whether complete information is or is not known by the other agents. We indicate both theoretically and numerically that the decentralized platooning system is flexible and scalable, and can be implemented in real-time by leveraging the CAV technology. • Behavioral instability arises in platooning due to uneven distribution of platooning benefits. • Vehicle can form stable platoons via peer-to-peer coordination with benefit redistribution. • The platooning process can be conducted in a decentralized and dynamic fashion. • Decentralized platooning is computationally efficient, flexible and scalable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study revisits the association between bilateral relations and trade based on rare-event data from Integrated Data for Event Analysis (IDEA). Our results suggest that a country imports more from another if the two countries are friendlier. We further argue that states face two constraints when attempting to manipulate trade. First, they are constrained by domestic institutions such as elections and congress. Second, they are constrained by international institutions such as the World Trade Organization (WTO). Our results show that the imports of authoritarian countries follow the flag of politics, but democratic countries' imports are less likely to be affected by bilateral relations. Moreover, WTO membership can gradually restrict democratic states from intervening on imports but has little impact on authoritarian governments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the bilateral trade problem: one seller, one buyer and a single, indivisible item for sale. It is well known that there is no fully-efficient and incentive compatible mechanism for this problem that maintains a balanced budget. We design simple and robust mechanisms that obtain approximate efficiency with these properties. We show that even minimal use of statistical data can yield good approximation results. We then demonstrate how a mechanism for this simple bilateral-trade problem can be used as a "black-box" for constructing mechanisms in more general environments. Finally, we show that dominant-strategy incentive-compatible mechanisms cannot guarantee any constant-factor approximation to the optimal gains from trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impact of COVID-19 on bilateral trade flows using a state-of-the-art gravity model of trade. Using the monthly trade data of 68 countries exporting across 222 destinations between January 2019 and October 2020, our results are threefold. First, we find a greater negative impact of COVID-19 on bilateral trade for those countries that were members of regional trade agreements before the pandemic. Second, we find that the impact of COVID-19 is negative and significant when we consider indicators related to governmental actions. Finally, this negative effect is more intense when exporter and importer country share identical income levels. In the latter case, the highest negative impact is found for exports between high-income countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The First Globalisation Era of the late 19th century following the United Kingdom (UK) based Industrial Revolution, shaped the bilateral economic relationship between Turkey, formerly, Ottoman Empire and the UK, formerly, British Empire, including both bilateral trade and direct investment flows. On the other hand, in the Second Globalisation Era, following the Information and Communications Technology revolution, in late 20th century, bilateral economic relations gained a new dimension, where “more equal relationships” were observed between the two parties. The aim of this paper is to analyse and compare the bilateral Turkish-English economic relationship including both international trade and foreign direct investment in these two globalisation eras in order to emphasise the main differences and similarities as well as the magnitude of changes affecting these economies. It is found out that the industrial revolution in the UK did not shape the economic order only but also shaped the bilateral economic relationships between the so called “centre and periphery”. In this regard, in the Second Globalisation Era after 2001 with the changing place of the Britain Empire in the new Globalisation Era “more equal relationships” between two parties compared to the First Globalisation Era is found out, at least in terms of international trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the effect of globalization, significant changes have occurred in the trade structures of countries due to the developments in information and communication technologies after the 2000s. Especially, the widespread use of the internet at the global level has enabled international trade to take place in the electronic environment. In this study, the effects of e-commerce on international trade were tested for G20 countries in the 2014-2019 period using the panel gravity model. According to the results; e-commerce, market size of importing countries, developments in information and communication technologies and the increase in the use of mobile phones have a positive effect on bilateral trade between countries. Considering that trade is one of the main determinants of sustainable economic growth, it becomes more important for policy makers to focus on infrastructure investments that will expand the use of the internet, increase e-commerce and support developments in information and communication technologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study is aimed to investigate the trade between 58 developing countries based on the effects of the US and China by employing the gravity model for the period between 1991 – 2015. For this purpose, a new variable is proposed as the logarithm of a function of the distances of country dyads to the US and China (einf) to measure the relative external influence of the US and China. As the trade volumes of country dyads in the sample change severely, the gravity model is estimated by penalized panel quantile fixed effects estimator proposed by Koenker (2004). Potential model misspecification is investigated with a Hausman-type test adapted for panel quantile regression. Findings reveal that the US and China have trade altering influence on developing country dyads, varying according to different quantiles of the conditional bilateral trade distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the beginning of his administration in 2017, the then President of the United States Donald Trump expressed his displeasure with the North American Free Trade Agreement (nafta). He argued that it had been unfair to the U. S. economy. Thus, the administration pressed for a renegotiation of the treaty in the second part of that same year. Although there have been many studies of nafta, few of them utilized an input-output model. This type of analysis allows us to measure the impacts of foreign trade flows of each economy through all the sectors of its structure. Here, we used an input-output model for the U. S. and Mexico to analyze the impacts of their bilateral trade on income and labor in each economy, in 1992 and 2014. The results show that while Mexico benefited more in labor and value-added generated by bilateral trade with the U. S., the distribution of value-added gains was more favorable to U. S. businesses than to Mexican workers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the ex-post trade effects of China's multilateral, regional and bilateral trade liberalization using augmented gravity and panel data estimation methods for the period 1995–2016. China's accession to the WTO was revealed to have had a significant impact on the volume of trade as well as on bilateral exports and imports. Regional trade agreements and the majority of bilateral trade agreements were found not to be effective in increasing China's foreign trade. Only the agreements with Chile, Costa Rica and Switzerland were effective in increasing China's trade volume. Moreover, the results for Chile were driven by increases in both exports and imports, while for Costa Rica and Switzerland only by increased imports from these countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Africa is a pivotal continent for Iran, as the Islamic Republic aims to expand its influence in wider global vistas. Iran experiences frequent setbacks in developing its Africa policy, but the continent continues to offer ample opportunities to support Tehran. This is partly because revolutionary Iran's Africa policy evolves through a wide array of piecemeal political, security, maritime, economic, and cultural activities. A host of Iranian organizations implement Iran's Africa policy, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, the Quds Force, the naval forces, inter‐parliamentary groups, friendship associations, and local chambers of commerce, as well as charities, religious seminaries, and universities. This article explores Iran's policies and their impact across the African continent. It also shows how Iran's activities evolve as the country seizes opportunities to expand bilateral and regional ties with African countries while retracting its involvement when it is unable to ensure strong bonds. The ebb and flow in Iranian Africa policy challenges but continually offers Tehran a chance to explore its foreign relations across the continent; as a result, Africa will play a vital role in sustaining Iran's international contacts, ability to circumvent sanctions, and capacity to withstand pressures from rival powers. The undeniable spread of Islam across Africa means that Iran will make efforts to win followers and propagate its brand of religion and revolutionary worldview as part of measures to build strategic depth across the continent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

International trade can be considered a means of sharing the world's wealth and a web that holds countries together. Despite the fact that this web is not strong enough to defy every problem between states, trade has become an important tool for Turkey's rapprochement with its neighbors. In this regard, Turkish‐Iranian trade relations are based on mutual benefits and reciprocal dependency. Despite the two countries' different political and economic structures and numerous points of controversy, Turkey and Iran have enhanced their economic relations. As a result of increasing and mutually beneficial bilateral trade, both countries have succeeded in confining their differences to minor points of friction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Policymakers are increasingly relying on computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to provide economy‐wide impacts of trade agreements; however, these assessments often make the simplifying assumption of complete bilateral tariff elimination. But agreements typically involve partial tariff elimination for sensitive sectors—which are often differentiated at the tariff line. As such, applying a uniform tariff reduction in a CGE sector that encompasses many products could introduce bias. We propose a tariff line approach for modelling exemptions for sensitive goods in CGE models with the aim of reducing this bias. This approach is tested for the Canada–EU trade agreement, and systematically compared to standard approaches to bilateral trade liberalisation in CGE analysis. We find that more common approaches might systematically overestimate trade and welfare impacts by neglecting partial liberalisation in selected sectors and/or not considering substitution across tariff lines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the present study, a GTAP CGE model is used to assess three proposed scenarios for the DCFTA between the EU and Ukraine, one for unilateral trade liberalisation, another for bilateral trade liberalisation with exemptions from free trade and a third for bilateral trade liberalisation without exemptions from free trade. The main point of distinction of this study is the inclusion of exemptions from free trade in the first two simulated scenarios and the possibility of a quantitative evaluation of exemptions from free trade through the differences between scenarios 3 and 2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current study aims to investigate the effect of devaluation on a bilateral trade balance between China and the United States. The study uses monthly data for the period 20‐11‐2018, which is seasonally adjusted through the Seasonal Trend Decomposition using Loess (STL) method. The dependent variable used in this study is exports to import ratio, and the independent variable is the exchange rate. The study uses both linear and nonlinear ARDL methodology to trace the long run and short run effect and to trace the asymmetry between exports to imports ratio and exchange rate. Moreover, the long‐run relationship is established through Bound testing approach. The findings favor the devaluation for China trade balance both in the short run and long run. Moreover, the results do not support the existence of J‐curve and indicate that rather than devaluation it is the competitiveness of Chinese goods and services that provide an edge in bilateral trade between China and United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To offset the devastating effects of the trade war waged by the Russian Federation, Ukraine has undertaken laudable efforts since 2014 to negotiate new trade agreements with other states. Against this background, the negotiations of the Canada-Ukraine Free Trade Agreement were finalized and the agreement came into force on 1 August 2017. This article explores the positive impact of this agreement on bilateral trade flow between the states and describes its potential contribution to unfolding Ukraine's trade potential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is oriented to quantify the trade creation and diversion effects in the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Peru and the United States. For that purpose, using a disaggregated database at the 10-digit level for Peruvian goods with intervals of 3-years between 2002 and 2018, this article adopts a three-dummy variable methodology that allows the identification of intrabloc and extra-bloc effects. Besides, a theoretically-founded gravity equation is employed with the incorporation of country-time and time-invariant fixed effects to solve common econometric specification problems, such as lack of multilateral resistance terms in modelling, heteroscedasticity of trade data, the inclusion of zero trade flows, and endogeneity of trade policy. Estimating with the PPML method for the complete sample and among types of goods (group 1: raw materials and intermediate goods, and group 2: consumer and capital goods), the main results show that the Peru-US FTA generates intra-bloc trade creation for the entire sample and two groups of goods separately. Also, the FTA produces export trade diversion for the complete sample and group 2, while import trade creation for both groups. Overall, the Peru-USA FTA is an "intra-bloc trade creation agreement" that boosted bilateral trade flows. These effects are considered to formulate some policy recommendations for improving the results of this Peruvian FTA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]