542 results on '"ALARP"'
Search Results
102. Risk-Acceptance Criteria in Occupational Health and Safety Risk-Assessment—The State-of-the-Art through a Systematic Literature Review
- Author
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P. K. Marhavilas and Dimitrios E. Koulouriotis
- Subjects
Protocol (science) ,Risk analysis ,Medicine (General) ,Computer science ,cost-benefit analysis ,T55-55.3 ,risk acceptance criteria (RAC) ,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health ,risk assessment ,Benchmarking ,Scientific literature ,Occupational safety and health ,ALARP ,R5-920 ,Systematic review ,societal risk ,Risk analysis (engineering) ,OHS ,Industrial safety. Industrial accident prevention ,individual risk ,Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality ,Risk assessment ,Safety Research - Abstract
The utilization of risk acceptance criteria (RAC) can help a business to judge whether the risk level concerning any process involved in its working environment is acceptable or not, especially when the risk has a significant societal impact. Thus, the main intention of this study is to make known the current state-of-the-art concerning RACs and to propose new interpretations of it by surveying, for first time, the scientific literature about the RACs associated with the occupational health and safety (OHS) risk-assessment methodologies (RAA). A second objective of this work is the attainment of a prediction for the evolution of the quantity of the publications concerning OHS-RACs, and a third one is the derivation of an algorithm (via a flow-chart) in order to illustrate the process of the formation of new OHS-RACs. The work consists of two parts, (a) exploring and presenting methods of developing RACs in OHS; (b) classifying, analyzing, and benchmarking relevant published scientific articles by surveying the Scopus data base with proper search-hints, through a time interval of 20 years (January2000–December 2019). The review has defined a plethora of RAC-papers with reference to OHS, which is a remarkable percentage in comparison with the other fields aggregated, and this outcome proves that the issue of utilizing RACs is fundamental for the field of OHS. Additionally, it has been deduced that, day after day, there is an increasing tendency for the scientific community to develop and use RACs in the field of occupational safety, as this is evident by their frequent reference to the risk analysis and assessment (RAA) process. Our specific research methodology has been compatible with the PRISMA protocol. A prediction for the evolution of the quantity of the OHS-RAC publications is also given by confirming the Poisson stochastic process. Finally, we propose a generic guideline framework that can contribute to the establishment of new empirically-generated OHS-RACs.
- Published
- 2021
103. A risk-based optimal pressure relief opening design for gas explosions in underground utility tunnels
- Author
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Jingde Li, Yimiao Huang, Guowei Ma, and Ying Xu
- Subjects
Risk analysis ,Acceleration ,Gas explosion ,Probabilistic logic ,Environmental science ,Building and Construction ,Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology ,ALARP ,Gas dispersion ,Overpressure ,Marine engineering - Abstract
A gas explosion is one of the main hazards of underground utility tunnels (UUTs), and the explosion overpressure can have catastrophic consequences. A pressure relief opening (PRO) can be an effective method of reducing the risk of an explosion. However, most existing UUTs in China are not configurated with a PRO. Therefore, the present study proposes a risk-based PRO design to explore the optimal layout for UUTs. Both dispersion and explosion simulations using Flame ACceleration Simulator (FLACS) were conducted to calculate the maximum overpressures, and then probabilistic studies were applied for risk analysis. The FLACS simulation results show that PROs can significantly reduce the maximum explosion overpressure from 2.23 bar to 1.97 bar. An ALARP (As Low As Reasonably Practicable) concept was applied to provide a risk reference for the design of a PRO in UUTs.
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- 2021
104. Risk-informed land-use planning in the Indian context: A social cost-benefit analysis
- Author
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Sandip Roy
- Subjects
Opportunity cost ,Cost–benefit analysis ,Natural resource economics ,Social cost ,Geography, Planning and Development ,Forestry ,Socioeconomic development ,Land-use planning ,Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law ,Hazard ,ALARP ,Agrarian society ,Business ,Nature and Landscape Conservation - Abstract
Major chemical process accidents over the recent past decades have led to the formulation and enforcement of land-use planning (LUP) practices across many countries, so as to mitigate the public risk emanating from major chemical hazard installations. The present paper presents an approach to deciding land-use policy founded on integrated local risk-acceptance criteria and an attendant societal cost-benefit analysis. The application of the proposed approach is demonstrated by a case study of an example greenfield industrial facility for which the adjoining land is subject to strictures of LUP policy. The context is chosen to be that of India, which is an emergent economy that is beset with unique challenges for balancing land-use between agrarian and industrial use. The societal costs and benefits are computed employing macro-economic indicators; the former comprise opportunity cost of land restricted for development, while the benefit is comprised of the cumulative wealth generation due to economic development of the jurisdiction over the facility life time. The value of the benefit to cost ratio is found to be highest corresponding to a LUP based on a relatively relaxed risk acceptance criterion with As Low as Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) limits of 10−6–10−4/yr for public individual risk. The primary reason for this outcome is that, in comparison to a developed economy, land prices in India are relatively high vis-a-vis labour productivity and wages. This shifts the LUP choice towards the policy which involves least land-use restrictions against non-agrarian, commercial developments in the vicinity of major hazard installations. It is also demonstrated that if the per capita GDP values corresponded to those of developed economies, a LUP policy based on a more stringent risk acceptance criterion may be affordable for the society. An additional significant finding of the study is that the Value of Statistical Life of humans makes a relatively minor contribution to the societal cost-benefit analysis. Thus, its value as a determinant to LUP decision may be relatively limited. This essentially underscores the idea that the broader objective of LUP need be to simultaneously foster economic development and minimise human and other critical losses.
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- 2021
105. Investigation of possible societal risk associated with wind power generation systems
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Moura Carneiro, F.O., Barbosa Rocha, H.H., and Costa Rocha, P.A.
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WIND power , *ENVIRONMENTAL risk assessment , *WIND turbines , *ENERGY development , *RENEWABLE energy sources , *ENERGY consumption - Abstract
Abstract: There is a progressive acceptance about the proposal of wind as an alternative source of energy to meet future global demand and significant reduction of environmental pollution. In this context, from design to decommission, safety doubtless represents an integral element of wind turbines. Based on historical accident data the quantitative risk measure of societal risk in connection with wind farms was evaluated in the present work. It was considered the CWIF database which contains information on accidents, incidents and fatalities related to wind technology from the 1970s to October 2011. The data were presented in its absolute values and normalized by the capacity of wind power installed worldwide over the years. The security level observed due to the wind turbine operation tends to increase with the increment of installed capacity. The social risk was calculated for two particular cases (characteristically arbitrary). As observed by the results (the curves in the F–N diagram) obtained for both scenarios, the risk does not exceed the upper limit of ALARP criterion. Nonetheless, the required application of principles for the integration of safety to tackle the hazards linked with wind turbines must not be neglected. Safety must be increased as the wind energy production expands, as well as there should be a need for regular reconsideration. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
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- 2013
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106. Application of risk, cost–benefit and acceptability analyses to identify the most appropriate geosynthetic solution to mitigate sinkhole damage on roads
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Galve, Jorge P., Gutiérrez, Francisco, Guerrero, Jesús, Alonso, Juan, and Diego, Ignacio
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GEOSYNTHETICS , *SINKHOLES , *DETERIORATION of roads , *QUANTITATIVE research , *METHODOLOGY , *GEOGRIDS , *RISK assessment - Abstract
Abstract: Sinkholes in karst areas disrupt transportation route serviceability causing significant direct and indirect economic losses and may lead to accidents involving fatalities. A quantitative procedure has been developed to identify the most suitable mitigation designs for a road recently built in an area with a very high probability of sinkhole occurrence. Installation of geogrids with different resistances to a variable number of road sections has been simulated taking into account the occurrence probability of sinkholes with different diameters in each section. The proposed methodology includes the following phases: (1) Development of a sinkhole hazard model that predicts the occurrence probability of sinkholes with different diameters in each 5×5m pixel of the road. (2) Vulnerability appraisal of the road by means of stability analyses. (3) Risk assessment for the “without geogrid” and multiple “with geogrid” scenarios including direct and indirect economic losses, as well as expected number of fatalities. (4) Cost–benefit analysis to estimate the net benefit of the mitigation designs. (5) Acceptability analysis considering geogrid solutions based on cost-effectiveness, conventional (maximum acceptable rate of fatalities) and utility-based (maximum acceptable investment in mitigation to prevent fatalities) criteria. (6) Sensitivity analysis to evaluate the impact of the uncertainty of a set of parameters on the most critical results from the risk management perspective. The presented method could be easily adapted to other geohazards (e.g. shallow landslides, rock-falls, piping), different infrastructures (e.g. railways), as well as to other corrective measures (e.g. concrete slabs, catch fences, armoured roofs, steel meshes, barrier systems). [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
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- 2012
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107. The use of a basic safety investment model in a practical risk management context
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Aven, Terje and Hiriart, Yolande
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RISK management in business , *DECISION support systems , *PROBABILITY theory , *INDUSTRIAL safety , *ACCIDENT prevention , *ECONOMIC models - Abstract
Abstract: We consider a basic model in economic safety analysis: a firm is willing to invest an amount x in safety measures to avoid an accident A, which in the case of occurrence, leads to a loss of size L. The probability of an accident is a function of x. The optimal value of x is determined by minimizing the expected costs. In the paper, we re-examine this model by adopting a practical risk/safety management perspective. We question how this model can be used for guiding the firm and regulators in determining the proper level of investment in safety. Attention is given to issues like how to determine the probability of an accident and how to take into account uncertainties that extend beyond the expected value. It is concluded that the model, with suitable extensions and if properly implemented, provides a valuable decision support tool. By focusing on investment levels and stimulating thereby the generation of alternative risk-reducing measures, the model is considered particularly useful in risk reduction (ALARP) processes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
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- 2011
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108. ALARP—What does it really mean?
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Jones-Lee, M. and Aven, T.
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INDUSTRIAL safety , *LOSS control , *COST effectiveness , *LABOR , *DEATH , *EXTERNALITIES , *WOUNDS & injuries - Abstract
Abstract: This paper examines the requirements that might reasonably be regarded as being implied by the ALARP principle. The principle stipulates that those responsible should reduce risks of death and injury for workers and members of the public to levels that are ‘As Low As Reasonably Practicable’. The main aim of the paper is to resolve the apparent conflict between the ALARP principle on the one hand and, on the other, conventional social cost–benefit analysis. In particular, cost–benefit analysis prescribes that a safety improvement should be undertaken only if the cost of doing so is less than or equal to the resultant benefits, whereas some regulatory agencies interpret ALARP as requiring that the improvement must be undertaken provided that costs are not in ‘gross disproportion’ to benefits, which would clearly include cases in which costs might substantially exceed benefits. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
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- 2011
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109. NUCLEAR RISK PERCEPTION, SAFETY GOALS AND SPECIFICATIONS.
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Popescu, Gh., Gherghinescu, S., and Vacaru, M.
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RADIOACTIVE substances ,RISK perception ,NUCLEAR power plants ,BOILERS ,NUCLEAR facilities ,RADIOCHEMISTRY - Abstract
In the nuclear installation design concepts like "tolerable", "acceptable" and "unacceptable" must be clearly defined, together with their characteristic levels (ALARP). These levels are affected by the specific risk perception of NPP (nuclear power plants) and other nuclear facilities, which leads to lower the importance of costs in choosing alternatives to reduce the risk of releasing radioactive substances into the environment. Thus for each nuclear installation project should be developed a plan to ensure security and reliability, which will include achievable goals and in accordance with the design theme, the design code to be used, the requirements of regulatory, licensing and control bodies: the National Commission for the Nuclear Activities Control and the The State Inspection of Boilers, Pressure Vessels and Hoisting for Nuclear Activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2011
110. Risk-management and rule-compliance: Decision-making in hazardous industries
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Hopkins, Andrew
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RISK management in business , *DECISION making , *INDUSTRIAL safety , *ACCIDENT prevention , *INVESTMENTS , *HAZARDS , *EMPIRICAL research - Abstract
Abstract: Risk-management and rule-compliance are inter-related strategies for promoting safety in hazardous industries. They are co-existing and complementary, not contradictory. However risk-management offers very little guidance to end point decision-makers; they need rules to guide their decisions. Accordingly, it is important, even within a risk-management framework that risk-management be translated into rule-compliance for end point decision-makers, where possible. The paper demonstrates that this is what in fact happens for a wide range of operational decision-making. For non-operational decisions, such as investment and design decisions, the need to convert risk-management into rule-compliance is equally important, although more controversial. Nevertheless the authorities have shown that they are willing to impose prescriptive technical rules on duty holders in relation to non-operational decisions, in the interests of safety. These points are illustrated using a variety of empirical examples and materials, most particularly, the BP Texas City accident, the Buncefield accident, and the Australian pipeline standard. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
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- 2011
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111. Quantitative risk analysis for road tunnels complying with EU regulations.
- Author
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Kirytopoulos, KonstantinosA., Rentizelas, AthanasiosA., Tatsiopoulos, IliasP., and Papadopoulos, George
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TUNNEL design & construction ,RISK management in business ,RISK exposure ,TRAFFIC safety ,RISK assessment - Abstract
Tunnels have improved the connection of regions within the European Commission (EC) and have been used lately as a catalyst for economic development of previously isolated regions. However, the increasing number of these important infrastructures is raising upfront an endogenous problem, which is the severity of accidents that may occur. These risks have much greater impact when heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) or dangerous goods (DGs) are involved in the accident. As a result, the EC launched the EC Directive 2004/54/EC. In order to achieve a minimum acceptable level of safety, the EC Directive 2004/54/EC suggests, apart from the measures imposed based on tunnel characteristics, the implementation of a risk analysis in cases such as the opening of the road tunnel to DGs. The most widely accepted method for such quantitative risk analysis (QRA) is the OECD/PIARC QRA Model. This research exploits the QRA Model to perform a QRA for five illustrative cases in order to explore the sufficiency of the minimum tunnel safety measures imposed by the Directive when transportation of HGVs and DGs is allowed through the tunnel. The research concludes that, at least for tunnels with marginal values of the EC Directive classes for length and traffic, the risk exposure (F/N curves) lays over the acceptable safety limits of ALARP (as low as reasonably practicable) models. Thus, the manager of the tunnel should take seriously into account the provision of the Directive for further risk analysis and consider more safety measures as well as take into account the risk associated with the alternative routes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2010
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112. Is ALARP applicable to the management of terrorist risks?
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Guikema, S.D. and Aven, T.
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SYSTEM safety , *RELIABILITY in engineering , *RISK management in business , *TERRORISTS , *CIVIL rights , *CIVIL defense , *RISK assessment - Abstract
Abstract: In this paper, we discuss the applicability of the as low as reasonable practicable (ALARP) principle to terrorist risk management. ALARP is a commonly used framework for managing risk due to non-intelligent threats, but terrorism introduces difficult issues, both technically and socially. In particular, the probability of a terrorist attack is difficult to define, terrorist threats are adaptive, and some terrorist risk management actions raise issues of loss of civil liberties not raised by risk management measures for other types of risk. We discuss these issues and their implications for risk management. After showing how ALARP is used to manage the risk from other hazards in different economic sectors, we discuss both the benefits and difficulties associated with extending the ALARP framework for terrorist risk analysis. We conclude that the ALARP framework can be modified to make it appropriate for risk management for adaptive risks, provided that care is taken to explicitly consider adaptive reallocation of risk in response to risk management actions, to account for perceived or actual loss of civil liberties resulting from risk management actions, and to consider the difficulties associated with using probability to measure uncertainty in adversary actions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
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- 2010
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113. Consideration on safety for emerging technology – Case studies of seven service robots
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Kabe, Takashi, Tanaka, Kohichi, Ikeda, Hiroyasu, and Sugimoto, Noboru
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MACHINERY safety regulations , *NONPROFIT organizations , *TECHNOLOGICAL innovations , *MACHINERY maintenance & repair , *TECHNOLOGICAL risk assessment , *ROBOT design & construction - Abstract
Abstract: Despite the fact that several manufacturers of service robots launched their innovations into the market, worldwide guidelines or regulations concerning the safety aspects of service robots are not yet available. However the general principles and methodologies of safety of machinery (e.g., ISO/IEC Guide 51, partly ISO14121, ISO12100) could be implemented to a certain degree. The safety of seven service robots as an emerging technology was verified by safety professionals of “NPO – the Safety Engineering Laboratory” a Non Profit Organization. NPO verified the “Critical Hazards” for each service robot mentioned by the respective manufacturers. For those cases, both the “As Low As Reasonably Practicable” principle and the “Reasonable Alternative Design” standard were applied for judging if the risk associated with the Critical Hazards were tolerable or not and if state of the art measures for reducing the risk were applied adequately. These experiences will help to establish guidelines for the safety of service robots as an emerging technology in the future. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
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- 2010
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114. Research on Risk Assessment Techniques of Offshore Wind Power Projects during Operation Period
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Qinfan Zhang, Wei An, Zhao Jianping, Liu Baozhan, and Weiwei Jin
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Technical support ,Offshore wind power ,South china ,Risk rating ,Operating environment ,Environmental science ,Operations management ,Risk assessment ,ALARP ,Risk evaluation - Abstract
In light of the complex operating environment and high maintenance cost of offshore wind power projects, a risk evaluation system is established in accordance with the risk’s features and sources during the operation period of offshore wind power projects. On grounds of the risk evaluation system, a risk assessment method for offshore wind power projects during the operation period is put forward based on the multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and a specific project in the South China Sea is evaluated with the assessment model. The results showed that the risk probability is moderate to low, the consequences of the hazards are moderate, and the comprehensive risk rating is moderate for the assessed project during the operation period. It is necessary to follow the ALARP (As Low As Reasonably Practicable) principle to mitigate the risk. The risk level of offshore wind farms during the operation period can be judged using the evaluation method to provide technical support for prevention and emergency response of the accidents related to the offshore wind power projects.
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- 2021
115. Optimising risk reduction: An expected utility approach for marginal risk reduction during regulatory decision making
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Li, Jiawei, Pollard, Simon, Kendall, Graham, Soane, Emma, and Davies, Gareth
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MATHEMATICAL optimization , *RISK aversion , *UTILITY theory , *DECISION making , *COST effectiveness , *RISK management in business - Abstract
Abstract: In practice, risk and uncertainty are essentially unavoidable in many regulation processes. Regulators frequently face a risk-benefit trade-off since zero risk is neither practicable nor affordable. Although it is accepted that cost–benefit analysis is important in many scenarios of risk management, what role it should play in a decision process is still controversial. One criticism of cost–benefit analysis is that decision makers should consider marginal benefits and costs, not present ones, in their decision making. In this paper, we investigate the problem of regulatory decision making under risk by applying expected utility theory and present a new approach of cost–benefit analysis. Directly taking into consideration the reduction of the risks, this approach achieves marginal cost–benefit analysis. By applying this approach, the optimal regulatory decision that maximizes the marginal benefit of risk reduction can be considered. This provides a transparent and reasonable criterion for stakeholders involved in the regulatory activity. An example of evaluating seismic retrofitting alternatives is provided to demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
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- 2009
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116. Risk-based rules for crane safety systems
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Ruud, Stian and Mikkelsen, Åge
- Subjects
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CRANES (Machinery) , *SAFETY , *OFFSHORE oil & gas industry , *RISK assessment , *TECHNICAL specifications - Abstract
Abstract: The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has recommended a method called formal safety assessment (FSA) for future development of rules and regulations. The FSA method has been applied in a pilot research project for development of risk-based rules and functional requirements for systems and components for offshore crane systems. This paper reports some developments in the project. A method for estimating target reliability for the risk-control options (safety functions) by means of the cost/benefit decision criterion has been developed in the project and is presented in this paper. Finally, a structure for risk-based rules is proposed and presented. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
- Published
- 2008
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117. A decision framework for risk management, with application to the offshore oil and gas industry
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Aven, T., Vinnem, J.E., and Wiencke, H.S.
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RISK management in business , *OFFSHORE oil & gas industry , *PETROLEUM industry , *MANAGEMENT - Abstract
Abstract: In this paper we present and discuss a decision framework for risk management. The framework comprises the basic elements: problem definition (challenges, goals and alternatives), stakeholders, concerns that affect the consequence analyses and the value judgments related to these consequences and analyses (frame conditions and constraints), identification of which consequence analyses to execute and the execution of these, managerial review and judgement, and the decision. The framework has novel aspects on the way of classifying the decision situations and characterising risks. The classification is based on the two dimensions, expected consequences, and uncertainties. Our starting point is the offshore oil and gas industry, but our framework and discussion is to a large extent general and could also be applied in other areas. An example is outlined to illustrate the use of the framework. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
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- 2007
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118. Residual Risk and the Psychology of Lower Order Controls
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Anna H. L. Floyd and H. Landis Floyd
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business.industry ,05 social sciences ,Lower order ,Context (language use) ,Affect (psychology) ,030210 environmental & occupational health ,050105 experimental psychology ,Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering ,ALARP ,Residual risk ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Risk analysis (engineering) ,Control and Systems Engineering ,0501 psychology and cognitive sciences ,Electrical and Electronic Engineering ,Psychology ,Risk assessment ,business ,Personal protective equipment ,Risk management - Abstract
In the context of the hierarchy of risk controls, warnings, administrative controls, and personal protective equipment are sometimes referred to as lower order controls. In practice, the effectiveness of these controls can be overestimated due to a misunderstanding of the human factors that affect error likelihood in their implementation. This paper explores one human factor: the limitation of attention on residual risk inherent in lower order controls. The limitation of attention has implications for identifying hazards, assessing risk, taking appropriate actions based on warnings, executing safe work practices, and proper selection and use of personal protective equipment. Raising awareness and improved understanding of these topics can enable more effective risk assessment, quantification of residual risk, and more effective selection and combination of risk controls to achieve risk as low as reasonably practicable.
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- 2017
119. Safety related key performance indicators for securing long-term business development – A case study
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Marko Gerbec and Branko Kontić
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Risk analysis ,021110 strategic, defence & security studies ,Engineering ,business.industry ,05 social sciences ,0211 other engineering and technologies ,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health ,Poison control ,02 engineering and technology ,Business interruption insurance ,Computer security ,computer.software_genre ,ALARP ,Risk analysis (engineering) ,Process safety ,0502 economics and business ,Organizational safety ,Economic impact analysis ,Performance indicator ,050207 economics ,Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality ,business ,Safety Research ,computer - Abstract
An application of the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) modelling is presented as a support in establishing process safety related key performance indicators (KPIs) for business management purposes. A relation to the managers' trust into results of risk analysis results is made. The case study deals with a possible spill, ignition, and explosion of methanol during a ship tanker unloading operation at the liquid cargo terminal at the port of Koper, Slovenia. Considerations of business impacts of such a major accident proved to be of particular relevance to the top management. Besides direct financial costs indirect economic impacts, like longer business interruption and impact to reputation, caused stronger concern due to their possible overall financial scope. This finding triggered a management requirement for establishing new, direct, measurable KPIs in association with multiple organizational safety improvement measures. Despite their small individual contribution to overall risk reduction, they are altogether effective in better understanding of the benefits of risk analysis for business. The BBN modelling assisted in identifying dominant contributors to key failure events, which was the guidance for proposing the meaningful, measurable business relevant KPIs. Benefits of such KPIs rely on regular monitoring by mid and top managers.
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- 2017
120. Optimization, a rational approach to SIL determination
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Hamid Jahanian
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Hazard (logic) ,Marginal cost ,021110 strategic, defence & security studies ,Engineering ,Environmental Engineering ,Mathematical model ,Factor cost ,business.industry ,General Chemical Engineering ,0211 other engineering and technologies ,020101 civil engineering ,02 engineering and technology ,Work in process ,ALARP ,0201 civil engineering ,Reliability engineering ,Environmental Chemistry ,Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality ,business ,Risk assessment ,Expected utility hypothesis - Abstract
In process industry, SIL determination is a risk assessment process through which target Safety Integrity Levels (SIL) are allocated to Safety Instrumented Functions (SIF). A target SIL represents the significance of the hazard against which the SIF protects the plant. This paper introduces new SIL determination methods by taking an optimization approach. Unlike the conventional methods, which are generally focused on calculating the gap between the existing and tolerable levels of risk, the methods introduced in this paper are aimed at optimizing the marginal cost or the benefit-cost ratio. By incorporating the cost factor into the SIL determination process, these methods deliver the most reasonably practicable solutions that can minimize the risk while taking into account the cost of solution. The new methods are formulated for corporate risk and the risk to community (i.e. ALARP). Both methods are derived for demand and continuous modes of SIF operation. Furthermore, a new Safety Index is introduced to combine the SIL and the average Probability of Failure on Demand (PFD) or Frequency of Failure per Hour (PFH). The application of the mathematical models is demonstrated through a practical example from power industry.
- Published
- 2017
121. Methodology for Establishing Risk Criteria for Dams in Developing Countries, Case Study of China
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Wei Li, Robert Y. Liang, Zongkun Li, Wei Ge, and Yingchun Cai
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Risk analysis ,Engineering ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,business.industry ,Process (engineering) ,media_common.quotation_subject ,0208 environmental biotechnology ,Environmental resource management ,Developing country ,02 engineering and technology ,01 natural sciences ,ALARP ,020801 environmental engineering ,Water resources ,Risk analysis (engineering) ,business ,Risk assessment ,China ,Seriousness ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Water Science and Technology ,Civil and Structural Engineering ,media_common - Abstract
Despite the rapid development of risk analysis, there is a relative absence of risk criteria for dams in developing countries recently, which restrained the practical application of the research results. This paper proposes guidelines for establishing risk criteria of dams in developing countries in considering the coordination of social, economic and engineering factors, then establishes a method of targeted analysis and demonstrates relevant parameters selected according to the ALARP principle and F-N curves, using China as an example. Different individual life risk criteria are established based on different safety levels for existing dams and newly built dams. Social life risk criteria and economic risk criteria are established on the basis of the different safety levels of all size reservoirs, the seriousness of the consequences of accidents, and the acceptability of social risks. The process of establishing risk criteria of dams and the analysis of the parameters demonstrated in this paper are meaningful to provide a reference and promote the required level of management for developing countries.
- Published
- 2017
122. ON THE USE OF GOALS, QUANTITATIVE CRITERIA AND REQUIREMENTS IN SAFETY MANAGEMENT.
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Aven, Terje, Vinnern, Jan Erik, and Røed, Willy
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INDUSTRIAL safety ,LOSS control ,INDUSTRIAL management ,RISK management in business ,DECISION making - Abstract
A basic element in safety management is the use of quantitative criteria and requirements to control risk and safety barrier performance. In this paper, we challenge this way of thinking. We argue that the prevailing thinking should be replaced by a framework where locus is on the involvement of management in decision-making, through achievement of goals, generation of alternatives and the use of risk analyses, barrier performance analyses and cost-benefit (effectiveness) analyses to compare these alternatives and to the extent possible meet the goals. This means a closer resemblance with the ALARP principle, but is not a direct application of this principle. Challenges related to the practical implementation of such a regime are discussed, in particular the relationship between safety professionals and management, the use o[ criteria and requirements related to safety impairment loads and barrier performance, the link to industry standards, and the need for involvement by the authorities. The Norwegian offshore oil and gas industry is the starting point for the discussion, but the discussion is to a large extent general. Examples are included to illustrate our way of thinking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2006
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123. Risk Criteria for the Shipping Industry.
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Trbojevic, V. M.
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MARITIME shipping , *GOAL setting in personnel management , *RISK assessment , *RISK management in business , *TECHNICAL specifications - Abstract
This paper proposes dual risk criteria for the shipping industry based on a goal-setting approach to safety requiring risk in the tolerability region to be as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) within which there is a prescriptive target risk level which should not be reached. The prescriptive target risk level is intended for smaller companies satisfying the current safety and classification rules, while it is expected that leading companies would embrace the dynamic ALARP approach as a means for improving the current practice in a search for a better and more economical solution. Furthermore, it is shown that it is possible to formulate the societal risk criteria fully consistent with often legally imposed individual risk criteria. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2006
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124. Reducing risks in the investigation, design and construction of large concrete dams
- Author
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E. T. Brown
- Subjects
Engineering ,Dam engineering ,Site investigation ,0211 other engineering and technologies ,02 engineering and technology ,010502 geochemistry & geophysics ,01 natural sciences ,Civil engineering ,Rock engineering ,Rock mechanics ,lcsh:Engineering geology. Rock mechanics. Soil mechanics. Underground construction ,Forensic engineering ,Concrete dam failure ,Reliability (statistics) ,021101 geological & geomatics engineering ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Risk assessment ,business.industry ,Probabilistic logic ,Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology ,ALARP ,Rock engineering design ,lcsh:TA703-712 ,business ,Failure mode and effects analysis - Abstract
An overview of the GeoSafe 2016 Symposium topic is provided using the example of large concrete dams for purposes of illustration. It is essential that the risks associated with large dams be evaluated rigorously and managed proactively at all stages of their lives so that the risk of failure remains As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP). Rock engineering features of large concrete dams that require particular attention, assessment and monitoring during the investigation, design, construction, initial filling, in-service operation, and subsequent repair and upgrade stages of the lives of concrete dams are identified and illustrated by examples from recorded experiences. A number of major concrete dam failures, including that of the St. Francis dam, California, U.S.A., in 1928, have led to significant developments in rock mechanics and rock engineering knowledge and techniques, as well as in dam design and review processes. More recent advances include a range of analytical, numerical modelling, probabilistic, reliability, failure mode and risk assessment approaches.
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- 2017
125. Occupational musculoskeletal disorders management using Fuzzy TOPSIS Assessment of Repetitive Tasks (ART)
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M. Nili, Yaghoub Farjami, Alireza Koohpaei, and Mohammad Khandan
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Adult ,Male ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Engineering ,Adolescent ,Operations research ,Cumulative Trauma Disorders ,Control (management) ,02 engineering and technology ,Iran ,Fuzzy logic ,Upper Extremity ,Musculoskeletal disorder ,Fuzzy Logic ,Manufacturing Industry ,Task Performance and Analysis ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,medicine ,Humans ,0501 psychology and cognitive sciences ,050107 human factors ,business.industry ,05 social sciences ,Rehabilitation ,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health ,Human factors and ergonomics ,TOPSIS ,Middle Aged ,Audit risk ,Multiple-criteria decision analysis ,medicine.disease ,ALARP ,Occupational Diseases ,Cross-Sectional Studies ,Workforce ,Physical therapy ,Female ,020201 artificial intelligence & image processing ,business - Abstract
BACKGROUND In order to evaluate occupational disorders and ergonomic problems in a workplace, Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) problem solving methods such as Fuzzy Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) can be utilized. OBJECTIVE In this paper, Musculoskeletal Disorder (MSD) risk factors were evaluated in a manufacturing company in Iran by a method called Assessment of Repetitive Tasks (ART) of the upper limbs integrated with Fuzzy TOPSIS in order to prioritize the corrective actions. METHODS This study was done with a descriptive-analytical approach. The company under study had 240 employees who were working in seven different shops. Out of all tasks, 13 tasks were included in the study. Required information was gathered by a demographic questionnaire and ART method. Also, Fuzzy TOPSIS was utilized for the prioritization of the company shops based on the ergonomic control needs. RESULTS Data analysis from ART indicated that 74.6% of the reviewed tasks were high risk. Based on the F- TOPSIS-ART results, Production shop prioritized as the highest need for MSD control. CONCLUSIONS Because there is time and financial resources limit in ergonomic control activities, a fuzzy prioritization approach such as Fuzzy TOPSIS ART can be used to take advantage of the available resources and control risks to as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) level.
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- 2017
126. Multi-level explosion risk analysis (MLERA) for accidental gas explosion events in super-large FLNG facilities
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Guowei Ma, Jingde Li, and Yimiao Huang
- Subjects
Risk analysis ,021110 strategic, defence & security studies ,Engineering ,business.industry ,General Chemical Engineering ,0211 other engineering and technologies ,Energy Engineering and Power Technology ,020101 civil engineering ,02 engineering and technology ,Management Science and Operations Research ,Computational fluid dynamics ,Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering ,ALARP ,0201 civil engineering ,Risk screening ,Risk analysis (engineering) ,Control and Systems Engineering ,Gas explosion ,Floating liquefied natural gas ,Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality ,business ,Risk assessment ,Risk quantification ,Food Science - Abstract
When assessing explosion risks of super-large offshore structures such as Floating Liquefied Natural Gas (FLNG) facilities, there are neither design rules nor industry standards available as FLNG is a new technology. Meanwhile, a large amount of Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) calculation time is required due to its super-large size and highly complicated topside structures. A multi-level explosion risk analysis method (MLERA) is developed in this paper, which divides the whole structure into subsections and applies detailed CFD calculations only to the areas with the highest level of potential risks so that the computational time can be reduced to a realistic and acceptable level. The MLERA includes three levels, which are qualitative risk screening, semi-quantitative risk classification, and quantitative risk assessment. A CFD tool called FLACS is used as a calculation tool for detailed risk quantification, and an ALARP (as low as reasonably practical) method is selected as a calibration tool and used to determine the acceptance of the explosion risk. Meanwhile, since the current design standards for normal offshore platforms are not sufficient for super-large structures, during the risk screening and risk classification processes, safety barriers are used as extra risk indicators in addition to the traditional ones. A case study is conducted based on a cylindrical FLNG model, and the result of the case study proves that the proposed MLERA method is able to save a large amount of computational time.
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- 2017
127. On the use of risk acceptance criteria in the offshore oil and gas industry
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Aven, Terje and Vinnem, Jan Erik
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- *
RISK management in business , *OFFSHORE oil & gas industry - Abstract
Abstract: Risk acceptance criteria, as upper limits of acceptable risks, have been used for offshore activities on the Norwegian Continental Shelf for more than 20 years. The common thinking has been that risk analyses and assessments cannot be conducted in a meaningful way without the use of such criteria. The ALARP principle also applies, but the risk acceptance criteria have played a more active role in the assessment processes than seen for example in the UK. Recently there has, however, been a discussion about the suitability of risk acceptance criteria to assess and control risks. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to this discussion by presenting and discussing a risk analysis regime that is not based on the use of risk acceptance criteria at all. We believe that we can do better if cost-effectiveness (in a wide sense) is the ruling thinking rather than adoption of pre-defined risk acceptance limits. This means a closer resemblance with the ALARP principle as adopted in the UK and other countries, but is not a direct application of this practice. Also the building blocks of the common way of applying the ALARP principle are reviewed. The Norwegian offshore oil and gas industry is the starting point, but the discussion is to large extent general. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
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- 2005
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128. International Guideline on Dose Prioritization and Acceptance Criteria in Radiation Therapy Planning for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma
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Jianji Pan, Joseph Wee, Anne W.M. Lee, Sue S. Yom, Yungan Tao, Johannes A. Langendijk, Yong Chan Ahn, Hussain AlHussain, Chi-Leung Chiang, Jin Ching Lin, Cai Grau, Giuseppe Sanguineti, Yoke Lim Soong, Quynh-Thu Le, Enis Ozyar, Chaosu Hu, Kevin J. Harrington, Nancy Y. Lee, Lester J. Peters, Wai Tong Ng, Tai Xiang Lu, Sharon Shuxian Poh, Vincent Grégoire, Horace C.W. Choi, June Corry, Brian O'Sullivan, Dora L.W. Kwong, David I. Rosenthal, William M. Mendenhall, Guided Treatment in Optimal Selected Cancer Patients (GUTS), Damage and Repair in Cancer Development and Cancer Treatment (DARE), and Acibadem University Dspace
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Organs at Risk ,Cancer Research ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Delphi Technique ,media_common.quotation_subject ,International Cooperation ,MEDLINE ,Nasopharyngeal neoplasm ,Delphi method ,INTENSITY-MODULATED-RADIOTHERAPY ,030218 nuclear medicine & medical imaging ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,NECK-CANCER ,Acceptance testing ,QUALITY-OF-LIFE ,Voting ,INDUCTION CHEMOTHERAPY ,Medicine ,Humans ,Radiology, Nuclear Medicine and imaging ,Medical physics ,GRADE Approach ,Radiation treatment planning ,Radiation Injuries ,media_common ,Radiation ,Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma ,TARGET VOLUMES CTV ,business.industry ,BRACHIAL-PLEXUS ,Radiotherapy Planning, Computer-Assisted ,Nasopharyngeal Neoplasms ,Radiotherapy Dosage ,Guideline ,ALARP ,DOSIMETRIC PREDICTORS ,Tumor Burden ,TEMPORAL-LOBE INJURY ,CAROTID STENOSIS ,Oncology ,030220 oncology & carcinogenesis ,Radiotherapy, Intensity-Modulated ,SQUAMOUS-CELL CARCINOMA ,Neoplasm Recurrence, Local ,business - Abstract
Purpose: The treatment of nasopharyngeal carcinoma requires high radiation doses. The balance of the risks of local recurrence owing to inadequate tumor coverage versus the potential damage to the adjacent organs at risk (OARs) is of critical importance. With advancements in technology, high target conformality is possible. Nonetheless, to achieve the best possible dose distribution, optimal setting of dose targets and dose prioritization for tumor volumes and various OARs is fundamental. Radiation doses should always be guided by the As Low As Reasonably Practicable principle. There are marked variations in practice. This study aimed to develop a guideline to serve as a global practical reference.Methods and Materials: A literature search on dose tolerances and normal-tissue complications after treatment for nasopharyngeal carcinoma was conducted. In addition, published guidelines and protocols on dose prioritization and constraints were reviewed. A text document and preliminary set of variants was circulated to a panel of international experts with publications or extensive experience in the field. An anonymized voting process was conducted to rank the proposed variants. A summary of the initial voting and different opinions expressed by members were then recirculated to the whole panel for review and reconsideration. Based on the comments of the panel, a refined second proposal was recirculated to the same panel. The current guideline was based on majority voting after repeated iteration for final agreement.Results: Variation in opinion among international experts was repeatedly iterated to develop a guideline describing appropriate dose prioritization and constraints. The percentage of final agreement on the recommended parameters and alternative views is shown. The rationale for the recommendations and the limitations of current evidence are discussed.Conclusions: Through this comprehensive review of available evidence and interactive exchange of vast experience by international experts, a guideline was developed to provide a practical reference for setting dose prioritization and acceptance criteria for tumor volumes and OARs. The final decision on the treatment prescription should be based on the individual clinical situation and the patient's acceptance of optimal balance of risk. (C) 2019 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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- 2019
129. A Risk Assessment Approach for Water-Energy Systems
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Gabriella Maselli, Gianluigi De Mare, and Antonio Nesticò
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Risk analysis ,Protocol (science) ,Water and energy sectors ,Economic evaluation of projects ,ALARP principle ,Financial risk ,Energy consumption ,Residual ,ALARP ,Residual risk ,Risk analysis (engineering) ,Business ,Risk assessment - Abstract
Projects aimed at reducing water and/or energy consumption present technical and economic complexity profiles that require the analysis of the many components of investment risk. Risk analysis is essential to express judgements on the economic convenience of projects in the water-energy sectors. It is important to study actions for the mitigation of investment risk, so as to report the residual risk within tolerability limits. The integration of the as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) logic with the cost-benefit analysis allows to define a protocol for the acceptance of the residual investment risk.
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- 2019
130. Model for Assessing the Safety Integrity Level of Electrical/ Electronic/Programmable Electronic Safety-Related Systems
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David Celeita, Esperanza S. Torres, Srinivas Sriramula, and Gustavo Ramos
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Functional safety ,0209 industrial biotechnology ,business.industry ,Process (engineering) ,Computer science ,020209 energy ,Automotive industry ,System safety ,IEC 61508 ,02 engineering and technology ,Maintenance engineering ,ALARP ,Reliability engineering ,020901 industrial engineering & automation ,Reliability (semiconductor) ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,business - Abstract
Nowadays, different industries such as nuclear, automotive, process, chemical, and oil & gas industry, must meet specific requirements in order to keep and reduce safety risks to as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) level. As a result, the number of electrical/electronic/programmable electronic safety-related systems (E/E/PES) to control, prevent and mitigate hazardous events has increased. Moreover, new guidelines and procedures have been developed to guarantee the availability and function of safety systems over their service life. Based on Markov processes, this paper proposes a reliability model to assess the integrity and verify the design of E/E/PES safety-related systems. The average probability of failure on demand (PFD avg ) and Safety Integrity Level (SIL), are used to determine the reliability performance of an E/E/PES in a low demand mode of operation in accordance with the functional safety principles of the IEC 61508 and IEC 61511 standards.
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- 2019
131. Never events in General Practice: a focus group study exploring the views of English and Scottish General Practitioners of ‘Never Events’
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Rebecca Morris, Carl de Wet, Aneez Esmail, Sudeh Cheraghi-Sohi, Stephen Campbell, and Paul Bowie
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Adult ,Male ,Attitude of Health Personnel ,Applied psychology ,General Practice ,03 medical and health sciences ,Patient safety ,primary care ,0302 clinical medicine ,Process theory ,Situated ,Health care ,patient safety ,Medicine ,Humans ,030212 general & internal medicine ,Qualitative Research ,Medical Errors ,business.industry ,030503 health policy & services ,Research ,never events ,General Medicine ,Focus Groups ,Middle Aged ,Focus group ,ALARP ,United Kingdom ,Never events ,England ,Scotland ,focus group ,focus groups ,0305 other medical science ,business ,General practice / Family practice ,Qualitative research - Abstract
ObjectivesTo examine general practitioner (GP) understanding of the never event (NE) concept in general practice, and to identify potential enablers and barriers to implementation in UK general practice.DesignQualitative study using focus groups. The data were analysed thematically and were informed by the normalisation process theory.SettingGeneral practice in Northwest England and Southwest Scotland.Participants25 GPs took part in five focus groups. 13 GPs were female and 12 male with an age range of 28–60.ResultsThe NE approach of avoiding serious preventable adverse outcomes from healthcare fitted with participants expectations of the delivery of care but the implementation of strategies to prevent the specific NE was considered complex and variable. The main themes identified participants’ understandings and perceived limitations of the NE concept; the embedded layers of responsibility to implement NE within practices and the work required for implementation within general practices. Participants’ accounts highlighted the differential nature of work in general practice and that the implementation of initiatives to address specific NE should be situated within a learning and systems approach to implementation. Some NEs were considered more relevant and amenable to simple solutions than others which could influence implementation.ConclusionsThe NE concept was considered overall an important approach to help address key primary care patient safety issues. The utility of individual NEs may vary depending on the complexity of the initiatives that would be needed to manage related risks to as low as reasonably practicable.
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- 2019
132. Evaluación del riesgo por rayos para Colombia
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Cruz Bernal, Audrey Soley, Torres Sanchez, Horacio, Aranguren Fino, Harby Daniel, and Programa de investigación sobre Adquisición y Análisis de Señales PAAS-UN
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Risk ,Peligrosidad ,Tormenta severa ,vulnerability ,Riesgo ,Severity ,Risk of lightnings ,Exposure ,natural subregions ,Keraunic level ,Exposición ,Descargas eléctricas atmosféricas ,Nivel ceráunico ,Rayos ,Tolerable risk ,Riesgo tolerable ,Ground flash density ,vulnerabilidad ,Subregiones naturales ,Severe storm ,Severidad ,Dangerousness ,ALARP ,Densidad de descargas a tierra ,Riesgo por rayos ,Atmospheric electric discharges ,lightning - Abstract
En el territorio colombiano, las condiciones meteorológicas están principalmente condicionadas por la zona de confluencia intertropical. Debido a esto, Colombia es una de las regiones con mayor actividad de rayos en el mundo, lo cual se refleja en un considerable número de muertos y heridos, y se asocia con la existencia de riesgo para la población en general. Este trabajo final de maestría evalúa y analiza el riesgo en seres humanos causado por rayos teniendo en cuenta las condiciones climatológicas y geográficas de Colombia (departamentos y subregiones naturales), la actividad de rayos en el país y la información obtenida a partir de diversas fuentes (gubernamentales y privadas). En primera instancia, se llevó a cabo una revisión para unificar las definiciones de riesgo existentes en la literatura y se identificaron como factores que inciden en el riesgo por rayos: exposición, vulnerabilidad y peligrosidad (Nivel I). Este último factor, compuesto por distribución del suceso, intervalo de recurrencia y grado de peligrosidad (Nivel 2). Luego, se relacionaron los factores de riesgo identificados con varios parámetros del rayo. De esta manera, los factores que corresponden a la peligrosidad se asociaron a la densidad de descargas a tierra (DDT), el nivel ceráunico (NC) y la severidad o tormenta severa (S). Por su parte, la exposición se asoció a la densidad poblacional y la vulnerabilidad con todos los casos que fueron reportados como víctimas mortales por rayos. Posteriormente, se desarrollaron y aplicaron varias metodologías para determinar cuantitativamente los factores de riesgo. En la primera metodología se definieron e identificaron veinte subregiones naturales en Colombia. En la segunda, a partir de las estadísticas que tiene el Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadísticas (DANE), se encontró un total de 1313 muertes a causa de rayos para el periodo comprendido entre 1997 y 2017. Paralelo a esto, y para el mismo periodo de tiempo, se obtuvo la densidad de población a nivel nacional y por subregiones. La tercera metodología consistió en calcular la DDT, el NC y la S para toda Colombia. Estos parámetros del rayo fueron obtenidos para el periodo 2012-2017 a partir de la información suministrada por la red LINET®, administrada por la empresa Keraunos SAS. En la parte final de este trabajo se desarrolló un estudio global de riesgo por rayos. Para esto, se analizó el riesgo tolerable por rayos haciendo uso de las curvas F-N, encontrando que el riesgo social en las subregiones naturales y, en general, en toda Colombia, se encuentra dentro del límite aceptable, según el valor típico de riesgo tolerable registrado en la Norma Técnica Colombiana NTC 4552-2. Finalmente, se plantean tres escenarios (modelos matemáticos) para la estimación del riesgo total por rayos, los cuales combinan los factores de riesgo previamente cuantificados (exposición, vulnerabilidad y peligrosidad). Luego de comparar los resultados obtenidos con los tres modelos se evidenció que, al hacer uso de cualquiera de las fórmulas, las subregiones naturales de Colombia que presentaron un mayor riesgo por rayos durante el periodo 2012-2017 fueron Llanura Caribe (LLC), Montaña Noroeste (MNOE), Valle del Cauca (VC) y Valle del Magdalena Medio (VMM). In the Colombian territory, the meteorological conditions are mainly conditioned by the intertropical convergence zone. Due to this, Colombia is one of the regions with the highest activity of lightnings in the world, which is reflected in a considerable number of deaths and injuries, and it is associated with the existence of risk for the population. This final master's degree project evaluates and analyzes the risk in humans caused by lightnings, considering the climatic and geographical conditions of Colombia (departments and natural subregions), lightning activity in the country and information obtained from several sources (governmental and private). In the first instance, a review was carried out to unify the definitions of risk existing in the literature and the factors that affect the risk of lightnings were identified: exposure, vulnerability and dangerousness (Level I). This last factor, composed by distribution of the event, recurrence interval and degree of danger (Level 2). Then, the identified risk factors were related to various parameters of the lightning. In this way, the factors that correspond to the dangerousness were associated with the ground flash density (GFD), the keraunic level (KL) and the severity or severe storm (S). On the other hand, the exposure was associated with population density and the vulnerability was related to all the cases that were reported as fatalities by lightnings. Subsequently, several methodologies were developed and applied to quantitatively determine the risk factors. In the first methodology, twenty natural subregions were defined and identified in Colombia. In the second one, from the statistics held by the Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadisticas (DANE), a total of 1313 deaths by lightnings was found for the period between 1997 and 2017. Parallel to this, for the same period of time, population density was obtained at national level and by subregions. The third methodology consisted in calculating the GFS, the KL and the S for all of Colombia. These lightning parameters were obtained for the period 2012-2017 from the information provided by the LINET® network, managed by the company Keraunos SAS. In the final part of this work, a global study of lightning risk was developed. For this, the tolerable risk was analyzed using the F-N curves, finding that the social risk of lightnings in the natural subregions and, in general, in all of Colombia, is within the acceptable limit, according to the typical value of tolerable risk registered in the Colombian Technical Standard NTC 4552-2. Finally, three scenarios (mathematical models) are proposed for estimating the total risk of lightnings, which combine the previously quantified risk factors (exposure, vulnerability and dangerousness). After comparing the results obtained with the three models, it was evident that, when making use of any of the formulas, the natural subregions of Colombia that presented the highest risk of lightnings during the 2012-2017 period were Llanura Caribe (LLC), Montaña Noroeste (MNOE), Valle del Cauca (VC) y Valle del Magdalena Medio (VMM). Magister en Ingeniería Eléctrica Maestría
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- 2019
133. Defining ALARP for fire safety engineering design via the Life Quality Index
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Luke Bisby, Ruben Van Coile, and Grunde Jomaas
- Subjects
Probabilistic risk assessment ,Cost–benefit analysis ,Computer science ,Life Quality Index ,General Physics and Astronomy ,General Chemistry ,Building and Construction ,ALARP ,Risk analysis (engineering) ,Ethical dilemma ,Duty of care ,Damages ,General Materials Science ,Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality ,Valuation (finance) - Abstract
Fire safety engineering designs should comply with the ALARP requirement, meaning that fire safety measures should be implemented to ensure that fire risks are As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP). However, previous approaches have often been contradictory or unclear, especially with respect to the concepts of risk aversion, the valuation of risk to life, the concept of disproportionality, and the need to take into account monetary benefits resulting from life safety investments. First, the As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) criterion is specified to a societal, risk-neutral, and scalar cost-benefit analysis in the field of fire safety engineering. This is done to overcome the shortcomings in current practice with respect to utilizing the ALARP criterion for Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). Second, the ethical dilemma of the valuation of risk to human lives is addressed by application of the Life Quality Index (LQI), as has been suggested in the field of structural engineering through the recent ISO 2394:2015 standard. Contrary to the existing literature, the proposed interpretation for the ALARP requirement corresponds to an application of the LQI maximum societal benefit criterion. This ensures that safety resources are allocated so as to maximize the number of lives saved, and implies that the ALARP criterion results in stronger minimum requirements for life safety investments, i.e. societal lower bound investment levels. Third, the valuation of costs and benefits by the fire safety engineer is addressed by emphasizing the duty of care, and by specifying a benchmark criterion for the objective, diligent, and competent fire safety professional. This reinforces self-reflection amongst fire safety professionals, and diminishes the need for often unjustified or poorly specified disproportionality factors. Finally, the relationship between fire safety design and private actor cost-optimisation considerations is discussed, and the presented concepts are illustrated using three examples. These clarify the application of the presented concepts and demonstrate how the societal ALARP requirement interacts with the (safety) preferences of private investors. The examples highlight the importance of the societal ALARP evaluation and show that this governs the safety investment when the private investor values damages low, applies a high discount rate, or takes into account indirect costs (e.g. aesthetic costs) related to the safety investment.
- Published
- 2019
134. Calculation of the F-N curve and the expected damage value
- Author
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Alessio Frassoldati, Paolo Cerean, Fabio Borghetti, and Marco Derudi
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Societal risk ,Accidental ,Statistics ,Value (mathematics) ,ALARP ,Mathematics - Abstract
This chapter describes the implementation process of the F-N curve, which makes possible to represent the societal risk and subsequently verify its acceptance with respect to the ALARP criterion. The F-N curve is evaluated starting from the frequencies of occurrence of the accidental events and the number of fatalities determined by each accidental scenario.
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- 2019
135. Network Risk Management Based on the ALARP Criteria for Nuclear Power Plant
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Jun-Long Tan and Xiao-Jun Liu
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business.industry ,Computer science ,Network security ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Human error ,ComputerApplications_COMPUTERSINOTHERSYSTEMS ,Workload ,Nuclear power ,ALARP ,law.invention ,Promotion (rank) ,Risk analysis (engineering) ,law ,Nuclear power plant ,business ,Risk management ,media_common - Abstract
The safety problems of nuclear power plants are getting more and more serious. Digital control system is widely used in nuclear power plants in China, which reduces the possibility of human error and reduces the workload of operators, but at the same time brings new risks to the operation of nuclear power plants. The network security law was formally implemented in June 1, 2017. The baselines for nuclear power plant networks should not be considered only economic. Security is the most important thing. Input or increase network security equipment, it does not necessarily lead to the promotion of network security. This article analyzes the network security risks of nuclear power plants based on the ALARP Criteria, discusses the balance between inputs and risks, and proposes network risk management recommendations for nuclear power plant network security.
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- 2019
136. Multi-Level Explosion Risk Analysis for VCEs in Super-Large FLNG Facilities
- Author
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Jingde Li, Yimiao Huang, and Guowei Ma
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Risk analysis ,Risk screening ,Risk analysis (engineering) ,Calibration (statistics) ,Environmental science ,Floating liquefied natural gas ,Risk classification ,Risk assessment ,ALARP ,Risk quantification - Abstract
This chapter illustrates a multi-level explosion risk analysis method for super-large oil and gas facilities, so as of the FLNG platform. Three levels of risk analyses, i.e., a qualitative risk screening, a semi-quantitative risk classification and a quantitative risk assessment, are implemented. The CFD method is applied for detailed risk quantification, and an as low as reasonably practical (ALARP) method is adopted as a calibration tool. Safety barriers are introduced as extra risk indicators and a case study is conducted based on a cylindrical FLNG model.
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- 2019
137. Plant Safety Lifecycle and Safety Integrated Level
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Ajay Kumar Debnath and Swapan Basu
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Computer science ,Risk register ,Functional independence ,IEC 61508 ,Hazard analysis ,Rationalization (economics) ,Plant safety ,ALARP ,Reliability engineering - Abstract
Starting with explanations of hazard and risk, detailed discussions have been presented to identify the requirements for functional independence for BPCS and SIS, which is a requirement for a plant lifecycle analysis. HAZOP-type hazard analysis is best suited for power plant applications, and has been described to identify hazards and come out with control measures. As a part of risk analysis likelihood, consequence and exposure details have been discussed. Risk register, risk graphs, ALARP, and other methods have been covered. Detailed discussions on plant lifecycle analysis in line with IEC 61508/61511 and ISA 84.00.00 have been presented, including various stages of the standards including SRS validation and verification. Issues related to failure categories and development of fault-tolerant designs that are required for the design of SIF and SIS with suitable PFDs/SIL have been discussed. Various methods have been discussed for SIL determination. Comprehensive discussions have been presented on SIS alarms, alarm lifecycles, and rationalization. As part of the SIS component, detailed accounts have been presented on field sensors, logic solvers, and final control elements, including PST and FST. The controversy over integrated or separate BPCS and SIS networks has been addressed. Focus has also been placed on the enclosure protection class.
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- 2019
138. Recovery and valorisation of historical small towns. A model for assessing the investment risk. The case study of Aterrana
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Nestico', Antonio, Macchiaroli, Maria, and Maselli, Gabriella
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Minor historical centres ,Economic evaluation of the project ,Risk assessment ,Cost-benefit analysis ,Alarp - Published
- 2019
139. Living with Legacy Risk—The Limits of Practicalities?
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Ben J. M. Ale, Des N.D. Hartford, and David H. Slater
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Computer science ,020209 energy ,As is ,lcsh:TJ807-830 ,Geography, Planning and Development ,lcsh:Renewable energy sources ,02 engineering and technology ,Discourse ,Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law ,Accident (fallacy) ,Norm ,0203 mechanical engineering ,Cost benefit analysis ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,Set (psychology) ,lcsh:Environmental sciences ,automotive_engineering ,lcsh:GE1-350 ,Structure (mathematical logic) ,Norm (philosophy) ,Cost–benefit analysis ,Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment ,lcsh:Environmental effects of industries and plants ,Hazard ,ALARP ,Residual risk ,lcsh:TD194-195 ,020303 mechanical engineering & transports ,Risk analysis (engineering) - Abstract
Legacy risks from infrastructures and industrial installations often reveal themselves when a potential for failure has been discovered much later than at the stage of the design and construction of a structure. In which case, there might already be a problem with the legacy installation, or even a crisis, without having had an accident. When the hazard cannot be taken away, the question arises as to how much effort, if any, should be spent on improving the situation. The usefulness of the three archetypical approaches to this problem: setting a standard, the as low as reasonably practicable approach and a case-by-case discourse approach are discussed for their applicability for these legacy risks. Although it would be desirable to retrofit legacy risks to previously set legal requirements as is the case when acceptability limits are set in law or demonstration of ALARP (As Low As Reasonably Achievable) is demanded, it may be impossible to reduce the residual risk to an otherwise acceptable level without taking away or replacing the infrastructure, which is not acceptable either. Therefore in conclusion the only available solution to persistent legacy risk problems seems to be to have a thorough discussion with all relevant stakeholders until an agreement is in some way found.
- Published
- 2021
140. Risk-informed knowledge-based design for road infrastructure in an extreme environment
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Ke Chen, Qi Fang, Daniel Castro-Lacouture, Lieyun Ding, and Chengqian Li
- Subjects
Information Systems and Management ,Computer science ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Landslide ,02 engineering and technology ,ALARP ,Management Information Systems ,Scarcity ,Risk analysis (engineering) ,Artificial Intelligence ,Order (exchange) ,020204 information systems ,Knowledge based design ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,Damages ,020201 artificial intelligence & image processing ,Risk assessment ,Expected loss ,Software ,media_common - Abstract
Risk-based design is an essential strategy for enhancing the safety performance of road infrastructure during its operation stage. However, conventional risk-based design generally considers the risk of a single type of disaster, which is insufficient for assessing the multi-hazard risk of the road infrastructure in an extreme environment. In this study, a synthesis method, the risk-informed knowledge-based analytical method (RKAM) for multi-hazard risk assessment, is proposed for the road infrastructure. The RKAM uses risk mapping techniques and the as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) principle. Expert knowledge is utilized in order to overcome the scarcity of historical data. The RKAM is applied to the Tuoba–Qamdo Highway project in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau of China to assess the overall risks of causalities and structural damages caused by traffic accidents, fire accidents, and landslide disasters. The results of this case study show the capabilities of RKAM to generate a synthesis assessment of the expected loss by multi-hazard disasters, which provides valuable information for selecting the most appropriate design of road infrastructure.
- Published
- 2021
141. Adequate fire safety for structural steel elements based upon life-time cost optimization
- Author
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Ruben Van Coile, Ian Fu, and Danny Hopkin
- Subjects
Probabilistic risk assessment ,Computer science ,Event (computing) ,As is ,media_common.quotation_subject ,General Physics and Astronomy ,General Chemistry ,Investment (macroeconomics) ,ALARP ,Sizing ,Reliability engineering ,General Materials Science ,Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality ,Function (engineering) ,Reliability (statistics) ,media_common - Abstract
Structural fire safety requirements implicitly balance up-front investments in materials (protection or element sizing) with improved performance (loss reductions) in the unlikely event of a fire. For traditional prescriptive fire safety recommendations, the underlying target safety levels are not clear to the designer, nor is the associated balancing of risk and investment costs. It is discussed that traditional (structural) fire safety design is deterministic, with the safety foundation premised upon the collective experience of the profession. However, it is noted that building forms are increasingly uncommon in nature, due to material choice, height, failure consequences, etc. Within the framework presented in PD 7974–7:2019 there is an expectation that probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods be employed to demonstrate adequate safety for cases where the collective experience of the profession cannot be called upon to guide design approaches. In doing so, any design must be demonstrated to be tolerable to society, and the residual risk as low as is reasonably practicable (ALARP). In support of the PD 7974–7:2019 framework, the paper assesses the failure probabilities of isolated steel elements in function of insulation thickness, utilization, load ratio and (mean) fire load. In support of a generalized definition of target safety levels for structural fire safety engineering, optimum target safety levels for insulated steel beams are then determined as a function of the fire characteristics by applying life-time cost optimization (LCO) techniques. The LCO results in an assessment of the optimum investment level as a function of the fire, and damage and investment cost parameters characterizing the building. It is intended that the current contribution can be a steppingstone towards rational and validated reliability targets for performance-based design (PBD) in structural fire safety engineering.
- Published
- 2021
142. Real-Time Avoidance of Ionising Radiation Using Layered Costmaps for Mobile Robots.
- Author
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West A, Wright T, Tsitsimpelis I, Groves K, Joyce MJ, and Lennox B
- Abstract
Humans in hazardous environments take actions to reduce unnecessary risk, including limiting exposure to radioactive materials where ionising radiation can be a threat to human health. Robots can adopt the same approach of risk avoidance to minimise exposure to radiation, therefore limiting damage to electronics and materials. Reducing a robot's exposure to radiation results in longer operational lifetime and better return on investment for nuclear sector stakeholders. This work achieves radiation avoidance through the use of layered costmaps, to inform path planning algorithms of this additional risk. Interpolation of radiation observations into the configuration space of the robot is accomplished using an inverse distance weighting approach. This technique was successfully demonstrated using an unmanned ground vehicle running the Robot Operating System equipped with compatible gamma radiation sensors, both in simulation and in real-world mock inspection missions, where the vehicle was exposed to radioactive materials in Lancaster University's Neutron Laboratory. The addition of radiation avoidance functionality was shown to reduce total accumulated dose to background levels in real-world deployment and up to a factor of 10 in simulation., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2022 West, Wright, Tsitsimpelis, Groves, Joyce and Lennox.)
- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
143. Establishing an Effective Nuclear Regulatory Regime: A Case Study of South Africa
- Author
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Mosebetsi Leotlela
- Subjects
Value (ethics) ,Flexibility (engineering) ,Yardstick ,Risk analysis (engineering) ,Order (exchange) ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Mandate ,General Medicine ,Business ,Independence ,ALARP ,Regulatory authority ,media_common - Abstract
This research is aimed at providing insight into various nuclear regimes for countries that are looking to start a nuclear energy programme but have yet to develop such regimes, as well as those with a well-established nuclear programme. It will also evaluate the value of independence of nuclear regulators with regards nuclear safety whether independence on its own is of any value to the society or the nuclear regulator needs to be more effective in giving effect to the objective and mandate it was established for. Based on the fact that there is currently no yardstick available to measure the effectiveness of the nuclear regulator in carrying out its functions, a number of pointers are listed which failed will indicate the ineffectiveness of the nuclear regulators in protecting the public, environment and the property from the harmful effects of radiation. It will also highlight the value of flexibility in nuclear licensing in order to find the right fit between the nuclear regulatory circumstances and not sticking to the design of the nuclear regulatory regimes when they are not relevant. In addition, this paper will indicate the advantages and disadvantages of various regulatory regimes applicable to the nuclear regulatory authority, and most importantly show the fundamental difference between ‘as low as reasonably achievable, (ALARA), economic and social factors being taken into account’ and ‘as low as reasonably practicable’ (ALARP), and why these two cannot be used interchangeably.
- Published
- 2021
144. Deferred maintenance – a major industry challenge?
- Author
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Derrick O’Keeffe and Kylie Seccombe
- Subjects
Risk analysis (engineering) ,Greenhouse gas ,Sustainability ,Deferred maintenance ,Business ,Deferral ,Maintenance management ,ALARP ,Nuclear decommissioning - Abstract
This paper identifies key areas of concern regarding the use of deferral as a maintenance management tool. As the national regulator for offshore petroleum operations and greenhouse gas storage activities, National Offshore Petroleum Safety and Environmental Management Authority is uniquely positioned to observe the various processes and tools applied by industry in the management of maintenance for offshore facilities, including impacts on safety and the environment, while acknowledging the need for business sustainability. This Extended Abstract provides a regulator’s perspective on the use of ‘maintenance deferral’ by industry as a tool for balancing competing priorities, while ensuring the risks to people and the environment are reduced to a level that is as low as reasonably practicable. It highlights the pitfalls of maintenance deferral that may negatively influence safety and environmental performance over the life of a facility (from construction through to decommissioning) as well as on the business’ bottom line. Learnings identified from non-compliances, improvement recommendations and incidents to promote efficient and effective learning are shared to further enhance existing good practices across the industry.
- Published
- 2021
145. Environmental considerations for decommissioning
- Author
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Li Yuen Su, Fairul Izmal Jamal Hisne, and Kayleigh Hughes
- Subjects
Documentation ,Risk analysis (engineering) ,Best practice ,Sustainability ,Stakeholder ,Business ,Baseline (configuration management) ,Best practicable environmental option ,Nuclear decommissioning ,ALARP - Abstract
The acceleration of decommissioning activities in recent times has expedited the need to decommission responsibly and sustainably. Decommissioning activities are increasingly under public scrutiny, yet in many regions there remains a lack of legislation, regulatory guidance, and practical experience in implementing decommissioning activities. In general, the decommissioning process begins with the assessment stage, followed by planning and management, and lastly the actual decommissioning execution. The best practice approach for responsible decommissioning is to conduct a best practicable environmental option (BPEO) study, which is also known as a comparative assessment and/or decommissioning options assessment. The BPEO will identify the most beneficial or least damaging option to be selected for each decommissioning project by accounting for all relevant influencing aspects such as technical, environmental and social impacts, costs, stakeholder opinions, legal compliance as well as health and safety. Such documentation is important to demonstrate that potential impacts arising from decommissioning activities have either been removed or are reduced to as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP). The best decommissioning option will vary depending on local aspects such as environmental baseline conditions, key stakeholders, waste management and disposal facilities, available technologies and the viability of all options considered including reuse (e.g. rigs to reef). This paper outlines recommended approaches for successful decommissioning planning, highlighting key environmental considerations and other important influencing factors. The aim is to demonstrate the importance of holistic thinking for the development of decommissioning strategies to establish a robust decommissioning plan and successful execution.
- Published
- 2021
146. Managing landslide risk systematically using engineering works
- Author
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HoKen Kin Sang, WongCindy Yuen Shan, and CheungRaymond Wai Man
- Subjects
021110 strategic, defence & security studies ,Government ,Engineering ,business.industry ,0211 other engineering and technologies ,Terrain ,Landslide ,02 engineering and technology ,Safety standards ,ALARP ,Death toll ,Urban planning ,Forensic engineering ,Retrofitting ,business ,021101 geological & geomatics engineering ,Civil and Structural Engineering - Abstract
The dense urban development on a hilly terrain, together with intense seasonal rainfall, gives rise to acute slope safety problems in Hong Kong. This is reflected by a death toll of over 470 fatalities due to landslides since the 1940s. Site formation works form an integral part of infrastructure and building development in a steeply sloping terrain. In the mid-1970s, the Hong Kong government embarked on a slope retrofitting programme, known as the landslip preventive measures programme, systematically to reduce landslide risk by upgrading substandard man-made slopes to modern safety standards. By 2010, some 4500 high-risk government man-made slopes had been upgraded through the implementation of engineering works. In 2010, the government launched the landslip prevention and mitigation programme to dovetail with the completion of the previous programme. The new rolling programme aims to contain the overall landslide risk to an ‘as low as reasonably practicable’ level by upgrading the remaining substandard man-made slopes and systematically mitigating the landslide risk posed by vulnerable natural terrain catchments. In this paper, the advances and innovations arising from this unique systematic slope safety programme are described.
- Published
- 2016
147. Analysis of accidents in biogas production and upgrading
- Author
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Salvatore Papasidero, Valeria Casson Moreno, Valerio Cozzani, Daniele Guglielmi, Giordano Emrys Scarponi, Casson Moreno, Valeria, Papasidero, Salvatore, Scarponi, Giordano Emry, Guglielmi, Daniele, and Cozzani, Valerio
- Subjects
Engineering ,Waste management ,Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment ,business.industry ,020209 energy ,Supply chain ,02 engineering and technology ,Accident analysis ,Safety standards ,Environmental economics ,Multi Correspondence Analysi ,ALARP ,Accident cause ,Biogas ,Secondary sector of the economy ,Accident scenario ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,Bioga ,Safety culture ,Past accident analysi ,business ,Risk assessment - Abstract
In the last 10 years biogas production tripled, resulting in an increasing number of related facilities. The present study addresses safety issues of such activity on the basis of past accident analysis. A database of accidents related to biogas supply chain was created and data on 169 accidents were collected from different literature sources. Trends, causes of accidents, scenarios, and consequences were analysed also using Multi Correspondence Analysis to obtain correlations between causes of accidents and scenarios. The study showed that almost 12% of the past accident analysed can be classified as major accidents. The number of accidents is growing faster than biogas production. A risk assessment was carried, based on the analysis of accident frequencies and consequences. A non-negligible risk profile, typical of ALARP zone, was obtained for this industrial sector, revealing an emerging risk issue. The main lessons learnt are the need of developing and adopting specific safety standards and of improving the safety culture and risk awareness in the biogas production sector.
- Published
- 2016
148. Other people’s lives, other people’s livelihoods – making ALARP decisions in the context of considerations other than safety and cost
- Author
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David W. Stephens
- Subjects
Actuarial science ,Risk analysis (engineering) ,Common law ,Legislation ,Context (language use) ,General Medicine ,Business ,Livelihood ,ALARP - Abstract
Safety legislation and standards in the UK and elsewhere require risks to be reduced ‘as low as reasonably practicable’ (ALARP). Case law defines ALARP as a level of safety that could not be reduce...
- Published
- 2016
149. Advanced analysis to supplement HAZOP/LOPA for effective process design
- Author
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William R. Banick and Cindy Wei
- Subjects
0106 biological sciences ,Hazard (logic) ,Fault tree analysis ,Engineering ,Hazard and operability study ,business.industry ,General Chemical Engineering ,Process design ,02 engineering and technology ,Hazard analysis ,021001 nanoscience & nanotechnology ,010603 evolutionary biology ,01 natural sciences ,ALARP ,Reliability engineering ,0210 nano-technology ,Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality ,Engineering design process ,business ,Risk assessment - Abstract
The HAZOP and LOPA methods are commonly used for qualitative hazard identification and semi-quantitative assessment of risk in the process industries. Integration of HAZOP and LOPA techniques into a single study has provided the practical advantage of utilizing the same team of subject matter experts to complete evaluation of hazard scenarios, identify needs for further risk reduction, recommend specific safeguards required and confirm resulting residual risk is acceptable. While practical and efficient, the one-step comprehensive integrated HAZOP/LOPA method can have pitfalls. In particular, use of LOPA alone to confirm risk acceptability can lead to complex solutions to meet order-of-magnitude threshold requirements for risk reduction and restrictive requirements for independent protection layers (IPLs). Quantitative methods are sometimes required beyond HAZOP/LOPA to obtain a more precise evaluation of identified hazards and benefits of the associated safeguards. This article presents a risk assessment approach incorporating advanced analysis, including human factors task, fault tree and cost-benefit analysis, following HAZOP/LOPA analysis. To illustrate this approach, an example is shown on the selection of appropriate engineering design options for cyclic regeneration of dense phase ethylene treaters, which have unique safety concerns. Using advanced analysis, a cost effective design solution is developed and is shown to reduce risk to as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP). © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Process Saf Prog 36: 192–201, 2017
- Published
- 2016
150. SIL determination as a utility-based decision process
- Author
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Qamar Mahboob and Hamid Jahanian
- Subjects
musculoskeletal diseases ,021110 strategic, defence & security studies ,Engineering ,Environmental Engineering ,Cost–benefit analysis ,business.industry ,General Chemical Engineering ,Cost impact ,0211 other engineering and technologies ,virus diseases ,System safety ,02 engineering and technology ,female genital diseases and pregnancy complications ,ALARP ,Reliability engineering ,immune system diseases ,hemic and lymphatic diseases ,Safety Integrity Level ,Environmental Chemistry ,Determination methods ,Decision process ,Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality ,business ,Expected utility hypothesis ,021106 design practice & management - Abstract
Using the concept of ALARP (As Low As Reasonably Practicable) and the Expected Utility Theory (EUT), this paper introduces a risk-based optimisation approach to the SIL (Safety Integrity Level) determination process. In the commonly used SIL determination methods the target SIL is determined by comparing the existing level of risk to a pre-set corporate risk target; the gap defines the level of risk that should be reduced by additional layers of protection, such as safety systems. Such methods do not directly factor in the cost impact of the allocated target SILs, nor do they examine the practicability of all SIL alternatives in reducing the risk to as low as possible. The method presented in this paper is based on assigning utility values to different SIL alternatives, in accordance with the cost and benefits of each alternative, and comparing the expected utility values in order to determine the optimum SIL rating as target. A numerical analysis has been developed and applied to the SIL evaluation for a gas turbine over-speed protection to demonstrate the advantages and challenges of the new method.
- Published
- 2016
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