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Growing income disparities, affecting developing and developed countries alike, are a fact and, at the same time, one of the greatest economic challenges of modern times. Empirical studies in various areas usually compare countries using the Gini coefficient or the relationship between external and internal convergence. To a lesser extent, those analyses concern the long-term formation of the level of regional inequalities and the impact of major political or economic events on their course. The main objective of this work is to examine the direction of changes in income distribution in large European economies at NUTS2 level in 2000-2015. That period was marked by the occurrence of two non-standard events: the largest enlargement of the European Union to date and 2008 financial crisis, which, regardless of their positive or negative nature, put the studied countries in a new economic situation on each occasion. Therefore, the question arises whether those tipping points exerted an influence on the distribution of income in large European economies such as Germany, United Kingdom, France, Italy, Spain, and Poland. The results of the study indicate various directions of the changes in regional income disparities over the researched period, Las crecientes disparidades de ingresos, que afectan tanto a los países en desarrollo como a los desarrollados, son un hecho y, al mismo tiempo, uno de los mayores desafíos económicos de los tiempos modernos. Los estudios empíricos en diversas áreas usualmente comparan países usando el coeficiente de Gini o la relación entre convergencia externa e interna. En menor medida, esos análisis se refieren a la formación a largo plazo del nivel de desigualdades regionales y el impacto de los principales acontecimientos políticos o económicos en su curso. El objetivo principal de este trabajo es examinar la dirección de los cambios en la distribución del ingreso en las grandes economías europeas a nivel NUTS2 en 2000-2015. Ese período estuvo marcado por la ocurrencia de dos eventos no estándar: la mayor ampliación de la Unión Europea hasta la fecha y la crisis financiera de 2008, que, independientemente de su naturaleza positiva o negativa, coloca a los países estudiados en una nueva situación económica en cada ocasión. Por lo tanto, surge la pregunta de si esos puntos de inflexión influyeron en la distribución del ingreso en las grandes economías europeas como Alemania, Reino Unido, Francia, Italia, España y Polonia. Los resultados del estudio indican varias direcciones de los cambios en las disparidades regionales de ingresos durante el período investigado

Cette thèse propose des méthodes statistiques pour modéliser la vulnérabilité dans une perspective dynamique. Cette thèse, en s'inspirant des travaux de différentes disciplines telles que la sociologie, la psychologie et même les sciences environnementales, considère la vulnérabilité comme étant un processus qui se déroule dans le temps qui ne peut pas être observée directement. À l'aide de méthodes à variables latents telles que les courbes de croissance latentes et l'analyse de transitions latentes, cette thèse illustre comment il est possible de modéliser le processus de vulnérabilité. En utilisant des enquêtes longitudinales en Suisse et au Royaume-Uni, la thèse montre comment appliquer ces méthodes latentes à l'analyse de la vulnérabilité en étudiant les conséquences de la crise financière de 2008 sur le marché du travail, notamment sur les risques de chômage et les emplois précaires., This thesis proposes the use of statistical methods to model vulnerability in a dynamic perspective. Drawing on work in different disciplines such as sociology, psychology and even the environmental sciences, this thesis considers that vulnerability is a process that unfolds over time that cannot be observed directly. Through the use of latent variable methods, mainly latent growth curve models and latent transition analysis, this thesis illustrates how they can be used to model vulnerability. Using longitudinal surveys from Switzerland and the United Kingdom, this thesis shows how this methods can be applied to study vulnerability by investigating the consequences of the 2008 Financial Crisis on the labour market with a focus on the risk of unemployment and precarious jobs.

Bailén is a small town in southern Spain where, during the housing bubble in the early 2000s, a third of the country's domestic housing-brick supply was produced. After the 2008 financial crash, two of the town's three brickworks shut down - leaving dozens of abandoned factories behind. By walking through these ghostly ruins and photographing their strangely beautiful aesthetics, the author reflects on the rise and fall of a development model based on construction. It is stated that, whilst the sole notion of ‘crisis' is abstract and cannot be visualised, phantom brickworks function as antimetaphors because, instead of representing the crisis, they are the crisis. The music is available on the NTS YouTube channel at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08ctUR90WrM

O objetivo deste artigo é averiguar se os níveis diferenciados de corrupção se refletiram no comportamento das bolsas de valores ao redor do Mundo na Crise Financeira de 2008. A Teoria da Escolha Institucional indica que se generalizaram práticas financeiras proporcionadoras de grandes ganhos, as quais escondiam elevado risco, no período anterior à Crise. Foram utilizadas informações da Transparency International e do Banco Mundial sobre a corrupção percebida e o nível de governança para uma amostra final de 56 (cinquenta e seis) países. Para esses países, foi identificada a principal bolsa de valores e, para cada uma, o principal índice de bolsa, cujas cotações diárias de final de pregão foram levantadas para o período de 2007 a 2009. Os principais resultados evidenciam que em países com maior corrupção percebida e menor governança a Crise Financeira de 2008 acarretou maior queda acumulada das bolsas de valores, seguida de quebra estrutural mais profunda, aumento da volatilidade e menor previsibilidade da queda. Conclui-se que, de modo geral, os efeitos da Crise Financeira de 2008 foram diferenciados conforme o nível de corrupção percebida e de governança, sendo mais graves nos países em que a corrupção se apresentava mais institucionalizada. The purpose of this paper is to determine if the different levels of corruption reflected in the behavior of stock exchanges around the World in the 2008 Financial Crisis. Institutional Choice Theory indicates that, in the period before the Crisis, financial practices that provided large gains and concealed high risk were widespread. We used information from the Transparency International and the World Bank on perceived corruption and the level of governance on a final sample of 56 (fifty-six) countries. For these countries, we identified the main stock exchange and, for each one, the main burse index, whose daily quoted prices we gathered for the period from 2007 to 2009. The main results showed that in countries with greater perceived corruption and lower governance, the 2008 Financial Crisis presented a larger accumulated decrease of the stock exchanges followed by deeper structural breakdown, increased volatility and lower predictability of the drop. We conclude that, in general, the effects of the 2008 Financial Crisis were different according to the level of perceived corruption and governance, being more serious in countries where corruption was more institutionalized.

A large body of literature in the social sciences highlights the importance of trust as a necessary condition for economic exchange and the functioning of markets. By contrast, the relationship between trust and variation in financial market practices across national economies has received relatively little attention. This dissertation uses two alternative, non-bank lending channels in the period following the 2008 financial crisis as an empirical case study to analyse the influence of trust on the development of small business lending practices in the UK and Germany. A nested mixed methods design has been applied to the quantitative and qualitative analysis of unique, primary source loan transaction data, surveys of internet lending platforms, and surveys and semi-structured interviews with individual investors. Analysis of lending data finds different growth trajectories for each channel in each market, a pattern of development consistent with propositions of the Varieties of Capitalism (VoC) framework using its assumptions about the different institutional arrangements in liberal market economies (LMEs) and coordinated market economies (CMEs). Analysis of investor survey data and interviews provides a complimentary, trust-based explanation for these different development trajectories: there are unique social arrangements in the UK and Germany underlying their institutional arrangements and producing different forms of trust that investors rely on to assess the risk of lending in each channel. This dissertation argues that the VoC explanation for variation in the financing practices of firms across economies is incomplete because it fails to explain how societal arrangements and micro-foundations of trust influence the financing alternatives available to firms. This empirical study links comparative institutionalism and sociology of finance literatures by providing a more contextualised, holistic understanding of cross-national diversity of financial practices.

Banif, Banco Português de Investimento and Banco Comercial Português received capital from Troika due to the 2008 crisis. In return, they had to invest in venture capital and Revitalizar was the fund chosen, promoted by the Portuguese Ministry of the Economy, with the goal of protecting Small and Medium enterprises from the effects of the crisis. This created a situation where it is questioned if banks, having an obligation to invest, and venture capital firms, having the capital guaranteed by their side, actually cared about investment decisions. This situation together with the restricted investment policy by the State contributed to question the fund’s performance. Thus, I studied the impact of Revitalizar on the performance of its portfolio of firms measured by equity growth, estimating a regression through the random effects model, and also analysed the fund return for investors, compared with Pathena, a comparable fund that did not have its hands tied by State-defined policies. The results have shown that receiving Revitalizar investment has no impact on companies’ performance but, at the end of 2018, the fund has registered lower net IRR and TVPI, which demonstrates its lower capability of successful exits so far. This situation is not in accordance with previous literature that affirms IVC-GVC syndicates perform better; this may be a reflection of the specific context Revitalizar was created or the general fragility of these syndicates in Portugal, a question that can be further studied by researchers. O Banif, o Banco Português de Investimento e o Banco Comercial Português receberam capital da Troika devido à crise de 2008. Em contrapartida, investiram em capital de risco e o Revitalizar foi o fundo escolhido, promovido pelo ministério da economia portuguesa com o objetivo de recuperar as pequenas e médias empresas da crise. Isto criou uma situação em que se questiona se os bancos, tendo a obrigação de investir, e as empresas de capital de risco, tendo o capital garantido do seu lado, se preocuparam com as decisões de investimento. Esta situação, juntamente com a política de investimento forçada por parte do Estado, contribuiu para questionar o desempenho do fundo. Assim, estudei o impacto do Revitalizar no desempenho do seu portfólio de empresas medido pelo crescimento dos capitais próprios, estimando uma regressão através do modelo com efeitos aleatórios, e também analisei o retorno do fundo para investidores, comparado com o Pathena, um fundo que não teve a mão do Estado. Os resultados mostraram que receber investimento do Revitalizar não tem impacto sobre o desempenho das empresas, mas, no final de 2018, o fundo registou uma menor TIR líquida e TVPI, que demonstra a sua menor capacidade de desinvestimentos bem-sucedidos até agora. Esta situação não está de acordo com a literatura anterior que afirma que os sindicatos INV-GVC têm melhor desempenho; isto pode ser um reflexo do contexto específico em que o Revitalizar foi criado ou da fragilidade geral destes sindicatos em Portugal, questão que poderá ser estudada por futuros investigadores.

Internship Report presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Information Management, specialization in Knowledge Management and Business Intelligence The financial crisis of 2008 affected virtually every country in the World due to the connectivity of the global markets. Despite the significant contrasts in the starting points, there is the common perception that different economies recovered at distinct paces at least in part due to the policies and methods adopted by the authorities to address the financial crisis. In this context, the OECD “How’s Life” datasets were analyzed with the objective of trying to detect trajectories in countries that could partially be explained by the macroeconomic measures adopted after the crisis. With the support of the OECD secondary data for the period 2009-2015, this novel study involved not only univariate, bivariate, and cluster evaluations but also a three-way data analysis based on the STATIS method. Among the existing multivariate methodologies, STATIS is the most comprehensive and flexible method to assess the evolution of a large (and possibly varying) number of individuals and variables over several years. With the identification of country trajectories in association with the evolution of variables, the findings may be relevant for business organizations with regard to defining strategic directions and making operational decisions.

The global financial crisis of 2008 was described by the IMF as the worst recession since the Great Depression. This historic event provided the backdrop to this United Kingdom (UK) longitudinal study of changes in associations between social capital and psychological wellbeing. Past longitudinal studies have reported that the presence of social capital may buffer against adverse mental health outcomes. This study adds to existing literature by employing data from the British Household Panel Survey and tracking the same individuals (N = 11,743) pre- and immediately post-crisis (years 2007–09). With longitudinal, multilevel logistic regression modelling, we aimed to compare the buffering effects of individual-level social capital (generalised trust and social participation) against worse psychological wellbeing (GHQ-12) during and immediately after the 2008 financial crisis. After comparing the same individuals over time, results showed that stocks of social capital (generalised trust) were significantly depleted across the UK during the crisis, from 40% trusting others in 2007 to 32% in 2008. Despite this drop, the buffering effect of trust against worse psychological wellbeing was pronounced in 2008; those not trusting had an increased risk of worse psychological wellbeing in 2008 compared with the previous year in fully adjusted models (OR = 1.49, 95% CI (1.34–1.65). Levels of active participation increased across the timeframe of this study but were not associated with psychological health. From our empirical evidence, decision makers should be made aware of how events such as the crisis (and the measures taken to counter its effects) could negatively impact on a Nation's trust levels. Furthermore, past research implies that the positive effects of trust on psychological wellbeing evident in this study may only be short-term; therefore, decision makers should also prioritise policies that restore trust levels to improve the psychological wellbeing of the population.

This article aims to calculate the quarterly default rate of customers loans in the UK for different simulated stress-scenarios based on a macro-economic model. These simulations are from Q1 2019 until Q4 2023. The simulated default rates are compared to default rates from the 2007–2009 crisis. In addition to this, the uplift, elasticity and level of extremeness of a simulated default rate were also computed. This paper employed a systematic literature review methodology in order to gather knowledge about the available literature about the topic. The data analysis component of this project was divided into three different parts: 1) Monte Carlo simulations were used in order to simulate stress macro-economic conditions, 2) back-transformation was employed in order to calculate the default rate, which was calculated in function of the macro-economic variables, 3) a visualisation dashboard containing the results, built using R Shiny. Scenarios 1, 2 and 3 show a 30%, 3%, and 4% default rate increase, respectively, between Q4 2023 and the 2007–2009 economic crisis. Our research might be relevant for banks and stakeholders to assess how certain scenarios will affect the default rate and the macro-economic environment for sustainable economies. Furthermore, the findings can be used to validate or invalidate macro-economic models.

This book is about how Donald Trump, who had no prior public service, became president of the United States. It argues that Trump capitalized on a wave of increasing public discontent that stemmed from the demise of the country’s Golden Age of prosperity. This involved decades-long trends in the American economy, race relations, ideology, and political polarization, all of which fueled rising discontent across America. It reached a tipping point by the time Barack Obama was elected president. When the 2008 financial crisis hit and Obama was elected the first African American president, he tried to resolve the crisis and fix the nation’s ailing health care system. But in doing so he pushed rising discontent over the edge. Political gridlock in Washington resulted. Discontent skyrocketed. Americans were fed up and looked for a savior. Trump was lucky to be in the right place at the right time and rode that wave of discontent all the way to the White House.

This study provides micro-level evidence for the new theories of accountability under globalization. We analyze the micro-level logic that underpins political accountability in democratic countries with highly globalized economies. We contend that voters discount current economic conditions in evaluating incumbent leaders if they perceive the incumbent leader moving the country in the right direction. We test this argument with survey data from eight European countries in 2012, while controlling for potential alternative explanations associated with pocketbook, sociotropic, and clarity-of-responsibility factors. We find that valence considerations related to future directions in the country sustain positive evaluations of leaders’ performance even in the face of negative evaluations of the economy.