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149 results on '"[ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ"'

101. Forecasting of wind parks production by dynamic fuzzy models with optimal generalisation capacity

Author

Georges Kariniotakis, CEP/Sophia, Centre Énergétique et Procédés ( CEP ), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ) -MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ), Centre Énergétique et Procédés (CEP), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)

Subjects
numerical weather predictions, [ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, on-line software, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, [ SPI.NRJ ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/Electric power, [SPI.NRJ]Engineering Sciences [physics]/Electric power, adaptive fuzzy-neural networks, Wind power, time-series forecasting
Abstract

International audience; On-line forecasting of the power output of wind farms is of major importance for a reliable and secure large-scale integration of wind power, especially under liberalized energy market environment. This paper presents such a prediction tool that receives on-line SCADA measurements, as well as numerical weather predictions as input, to predict the power production of wind parks 48 hours ahead. The prediction tool integrates models based on adaptive fuzzy-neural networks configured either for short-term or long-term forecasting. In each case, the model architecture is selected through non-linear optimization techniques. By this way the accuracy of the model on out of sample data (generalization) is optimized. The forecasting models are integrated in the MORE-CARE Energy Management Software (EMS) software developed in the frame of a European research project. In this EMS platform, wind forecasts and confidence intervals are used by economic dispatch and unit commitment functions. The paper presents detailed results on the performance of the developed models on a real wind farm using HIRLAM numerical weather predictions as input.

Published
2003

102. Evaluation of the MORE-CARE wind power prediction platform. Perfrmance of the fuzzy logic based models

Author

Georges Kariniotakis, Pierre Pinson, CEP/Sophia, Centre Énergétique et Procédés ( CEP ), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ) -MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ), Centre Énergétique et Procédés (CEP), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)

Subjects
Time-series forecasting, numerical weather predictions, [ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, on-line software, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, [ SPI.NRJ ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/Electric power, [SPI.NRJ]Engineering Sciences [physics]/Electric power, adaptive fuzzy-neural networks, Wind Power
Abstract

International audience; The paper presents an advanced wind forecasting system that uses on-line SCADA measurements, as well as numerical weather predictions as input to predict the power production of wind parks 48 hours ahead. The prediction tool integrates models based on adaptive fuzzy-neural networks configured either for short-term or long-term forecasting. In each case, the model architecture is selected through non-linear optimization techniques. The forecasting system is integrated within the MORE-CARE EMS software developed in the frame of a European research project. Within this on-line platform, the forecasting module provides forecasts and confidence intervals for the wind farms in a power system, which can be directly used by economic dispatch and unit commitment functions. The platform can run also as a stand-alone application destined only for wind forecasting. Detailed results are presented on the performance of the developed models over a one-year evaluation period on five real wind farms in Ireland, using HIRLAM numerical weather prediction and SCADA data as input.

Published
2003

103. Potential benefits of wind forecasting and the application of more-care in Ireland

Author

Ruairi Costello, Damian Mccoy, Donnel, Philip O., Geoff Dutton, Georges Kariniotakis, ESB National Grid - Power System Operations, ESB National Grid - Power System Operation, CLRC - Rutherford Appletown Laboratory, Rutherford Appletown Laboratory, Centre Énergétique et Procédés ( CEP ), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ), Centre Énergétique et Procédés (CEP), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)

Subjects
Hirlam, [ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, TSO, [ SPI.NRJ ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/Electric power, More-Care, [SPI.NRJ]Engineering Sciences [physics]/Electric power, Wind Forecasting
Abstract

International audience; The Irish Electricity System and its future developments with regard to the integration of wind energy is described. The importance of an accurate wind forecasting tool and the development of the More-Care wind modules for use by the Transmission System Operator (TSO) in Ireland is outlined. An accurate tool for wind forecasting is anticipated to greatly help in permitting greater penetration of renewable energy sources in our island system.

Published
2002

104. Short-Term load forecasting using a neuro-fuzzy model based on entropy maximisation

Author

Georges Kariniotakis, Centre Énergétique et Procédés ( CEP ), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ), Centre Énergétique et Procédés (CEP), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)

Subjects
[ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, on-line software, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, [ SPI.NRJ ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/Electric power, [SPI.NRJ]Engineering Sciences [physics]/Electric power, adaptive fuzzy-neural networks, Short-term load forecasting, entropy
Abstract

International audience; The paper presents a new short-term load forecasting approach based on dynamic fuzzy logic modelling. The developed model produces forecasts for the next 48 hours, which are updated every hour. Such a sliding window scheme is different than conventional models that operate usually once a day. The paper emphasizes on developing appropriate learning and on-line adaptation schemes based on the maximal entropy principle. In contrast to the traditional approach, such schemes permit to avoid overfitting of the model to the data. Thus, the ability of the model to predict new data (generalisation) is maximized. The architecture of the model is selected using non-linear optimisation techniques such the non-linear Simplex. The model has been developed in the frame of the EU research project More-Care and implemented for on-line use at the islands of Crete and Madeira. Results from the case studies are presented showing the efficiency of the approach.

Published
2002

105. Load, Wind and Hydro Power Forecasting Functions of the More-Care EMS System

Author

Georges Kariniotakis, Didier Mayer, James Halliday, Geoff. Dutton, Irving, Andrew D., Richard Brownsword, Petros Dokopoulos, Alexiadis, Minas C., Centre Énergétique et Procédés ( CEP ), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ), CCLRC-RAL, Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering [Thessaloniki], Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Centre Énergétique et Procédés (CEP), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)

Subjects
Wind forecasting, numerical weather predictions, [ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, [ SPI.NRJ ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/Electric power, [SPI.NRJ]Engineering Sciences [physics]/Electric power, water inflows prediction, load forecasting, EMS, SCADA
Abstract

International audience; The objective of the MORE-CARE project has been to develop an advanced Energy management System (EMS) to assist the operators of a medium or a large isolated power system. MORE-CARE focuses on the case of systems including substantial amount of renewable energy sources and namely wind, and hydro power. The paper presents the functions developed in the frame of this project for the prediction of the wind production, the hydro reservoirs inflows a nd the total power system load. The man-machine interface characteristics related to these forecasting functions are presented together with preliminary results on their on-line performance.

Published
2002

106. Choice Criteria between AC and DC Bus in a subsystem in the frame of a distributed Power production

Author

Céline Trousseau, Georges Kariniotakis, Centre Énergétique et Procédés (CEP), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Centre Énergétique et Procédés ( CEP ), and MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL )

Subjects
photovoltaic, [ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, load management, AC bus, modular, stand−alone system, PV pumping
Abstract

International audience; The aim of the paper is to provide a framework for the evaluation of the operational performance of small electricity spply systems (1−10 kW) that use either AC or DC bus. It is shown that in several cases a better performance can be achieved when generators and loads are connected to a common DC rather than a standard AC bus. The application study is performed for the case of a PV pumping system. The influence of bus and inverter choice is studied, while the distance between solar generator and battery is introduced as a decisive criterion. The paper introduces loss of load, ACDC conversion losses and new economic criteria that permit optimal decisions on the choice between AC or DC bus−bar.

Published
2002

107. Energy management and control of island power systems with increased penetration from renewable sources

Author

Georges Contaxis, Anastasios G. Bakirtzis, Georges Kariniotakis, M.J. Fernandes, J. Halliday, Antiopi Gigantidou, João Peças Lopes, Manuel A. Matos, D. McCoy, Didier Mayer, N.D. Hatziargyriou, P. O'Donnell, J.M.S. Cotrim, J. Stefanakis, P.S. Dokopoulos, A.P. Figueira, Gordon N. Dutton, National Technical University of Athens [Athens] ( NTUA ), Centre Énergétique et Procédés ( CEP ), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ), Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering [Thessaloniki], Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Public Power Corporation - Grèce ( PPC ), PPC, ESB National Grid - Power System Operations, ESB National Grid - Power System Operation, Empresa de Electricidade da Madeira ( EEM ), EEM, National Technical University of Athens [Athens] (NTUA), Centre Énergétique et Procédés (CEP), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Public Power Corporation - Grèce (PPC), and Empresa de Electricidade da Madeira (EEM)

Subjects
Engineering, Energy management, 020209 energy, Wind power forecasting, Power system reliability, 02 engineering and technology, 7. Clean energy, Power system interconnection, Power systems, Electric power system, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, Power system management, 0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering, Software system, Software systems, Wind energy, Pumped-storage hydroelectricity, Control systems, [ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, Wind power, business.industry, Economic dispatch, Control engineering, 021001 nanoscience & nanotechnology, Renewable energy resources, Power system control, Renewable energy, Systems engineering, 0210 nano-technology, business
Abstract

International audience; Penetration of renewable energy sources in isolated and weakly interconnected power systems can be increased in a secure and reliable way, if advanced control tools are available to the operators of these systems. In this paper the functions of MORE CARE are described. This is an advanced control software system aiming to optimize the operation of isolated and weakly interconnected systems by increasing the share of wind energy and other renewable forms, taking into account pumped hydro storage facilities and providing advanced on-line security functions, both in preventive and corrective mode. The main features of the control system comprise advanced software modules for load and wind power forecasting, unit commitment and economic dispatch of the conventional and renewable units and on-line security assessment capabilities integrated in a friendly man-machine environment. In this way, penetration of renewable energy sources in isolated systems can be increased in a secure and reliable way. Pilot installations of advanced control functions are foreseen on the islands of Crete, Ireland and Madeira.

Published
2002
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108. Preliminary results from the More Advanced Control Advice Project for secure operation of isolated power systems with increased renewable energy penetration and storage

Author

P.S. Dokopoulos, Manuel A. Matos, Georges Contaxis, D. McCoy, Georges Kariniotakis, M. H. Vasconcelos, N.D. Hatziargyriou, J. Halliday, J.M.S. Cotrim, Anastasios G. Bakirtzis, J. Stefanakis, Antiopi Gigantidou, Didier Mayer, Geoff Dutton, P. O'Donnell, J. A. Pecas Lopes, M.J. Fernandes, A.P. Figueira, National Technical University of Athens [Athens] (NTUA), School of of Electrical and Computer Engineering [Athens] (School of E.C.E), Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores Investigação e Desenvolvimento em Lisboa (INESC-ID), Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade Técnica de Lisboa (IST)-Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores (INESC), Centre Énergétique et Procédés (CEP), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering [Thessaloniki], Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Public Power Corporation - Grèce (PPC), PPC, ESB National Grid - Power System Operations, ESB National Grid - Power System Operation, Empresa de Electricidade da Madeira (EEM), EEM, National Technical University of Athens [Athens] ( NTUA ), School of of Electrical and Computer Engineering [Athens] ( School of E.C.E ), National Technical University of Athens, Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores Investigação e Desenvolvimento em Lisboa ( INESC-ID ), Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade Técnica de Lisboa ( IST ) -Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores ( INESC ), Centre Énergétique et Procédés ( CEP ), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ), Public Power Corporation - Grèce ( PPC ), Empresa de Electricidade da Madeira ( EEM ), and Faculdade de Engenharia

Subjects
Engineering, Economic forecasting, 020209 energy, Engenharia electrotécnica, electrónica e informática [Ciências da engenharia e tecnologias], Wind power forecasting, 02 engineering and technology, Engenharia electrotécnica, Engenharia electrotécnica, electrónica e informática, 7. Clean energy, Power system security, Electric power system, Power system simulation, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, Interconnected systems, 0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering, Software system, Software systems, Wind energy, Wind forecasting, [ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, Control systems, Wind power, Load forecasting, Power generation economics, business.industry, Economic dispatch, Electrical engineering, Electrical engineering, Electronic engineering, Information engineering [Engineering and technology], Renewable energy, Power system economics, Systems engineering, 020201 artificial intelligence & image processing, Electrical engineering, Electrical engineering, Electronic engineering, Information engineering, business
Abstract

International audience; In this paper, preliminary results from MORE CARE, a European R&D project financed within the Energy Program are described. This project has, as its main objective, the development of an advanced control software system, aiming to optimize the overall performance of isolated and weakly interconnected systems in liberalized market environments by increasing the share of wind energy and other renewable forms, including advanced online security functions. The main features of the control system comprise advanced software modules for load and wind power forecasting, unit commitment and economic dispatch of the conventional and renewable units and online security assessment capabilities integrated in a friendly man-machine environment. Pilot installations of advanced control functions are foreseen on the islands of Crete, Ireland and Madeira

Published
2001
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109. Optimal sizing of wind parks in autonomous power systems

Author

Paul Stelizuk, Georges Kariniotakis, Sara Sanchidrian - Ruiz, François-Pascal Neirac, Céline Trousseau, Centre Énergétique et Procédés (CEP), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), EDF R&D (EDF R&D), EDF (EDF), Centre Énergétique et Procédés ( CEP ), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ), EDF R&D ( EDF R&D ), and EDF ( EDF )

Subjects
[ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract

International audience

Published
2000

110. Optimal sizing of wind parks in autonomous power systems

Author

Paul Stelizuk, Georges Kariniotakis, François-Pascal Neirac, Centre Énergétique et Procédés (CEP), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Centre Énergétique et Procédés ( CEP ), and MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL )

Subjects
[ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract

International audience

Published
2000

111. Assessment of the benefits from advanced load & wind power forecasting in autonomous power systems

Author

Georges Kariniotakis, Matos, M., Miranda, V., CEP/Sophia, Centre Énergétique et Procédés ( CEP ), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ) -MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ), Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores Investigação e Desenvolvimento em Lisboa ( INESC-ID ), Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade Técnica de Lisboa ( IST ) -Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores ( INESC ), Centre Énergétique et Procédés (CEP), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores Investigação e Desenvolvimento em Lisboa (INESC-ID), and Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade Técnica de Lisboa (IST)-Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores (INESC)

Subjects
Islands, Unit Commitment, Renewable energy, [SPI]Engineering Sciences [physics], [ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, Energy Management System, Load forecasting, Wind power forecasting, Large autonomous power systems
Abstract

International audience; In this paper, a methodology is developed to assess the benefits from the use of advanced wind power and load forecasting techniques for the scheduling of a medium or large size autonomous power system. The power system scheduling is optimised through a genetic algorithms based unit commitment model that simulates in detail start-up/shut-down procedures of the power units, ramp constraints, generation limits etc. Different types of forecasts are considered as input to the unit commitment model and the operation costs are estimated for each case. Emphasis is given to define appropriate simple forecasting models that can be used on-line. The performance of these models is used as reference to evaluate advanced techniques. The case-study of the Greek island of Crete is examined. A simple model is developed to explain in an intuitive way how the power system structure might attenuate the effect of inaccuracy in forecasts. Finally, the impact of forecasting accuracy on the various power system management functions is discussed.

Published
1999

112. Dynamic Modelling of Large Autonomous power systems with high penetration from renewable (wind & hydro) power sources

Author

Georges Kariniotakis, CEP/Sophia, Centre Énergétique et Procédés ( CEP ), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ) -MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ), Centre Énergétique et Procédés (CEP), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)

Subjects
hydro turbines, [ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, wind turbines, multimachine power system, Dynamic modelling
Abstract

International audience; This paper presents a model for the transient stability analysis of isolated power systems including various conventional (thermal, gas, diesel) and renewable (hydro, wind) power units. The objective is to assess the impact of a high integration from renewables and to focus on the interaction between hydro units - which have a special dynamic behaviour, and wind turbines. Detailed models for the power system components are developed. Emphasis is given to the representation of different hydro power plant structures. An algorithm is proposed for the identification of the unknown power system parameters. The examined case study is the one of the power system of New Caledonia, where various types of hydro plants and a wind farm are installed. The developed model permits to define penetration limits for the renewable sources, to define rules for the safe operation of the system and finally it contributes to the dimensioning of new power plant installations.

Published
1999

113. Control Advice for Power Systems with Large Scale Integration of renewable energy Sources

Author

Hatziargyriou, Nikos D., Georges Contaxis, Papadopoulos, Michaël P., Papadias, Basil C., Halliday, Jackie A., Geoff Dutton, Georges Kariniotakis, Eric Nogaret, Petros. Dokopoulos, Anastasios Bakirtzis, Pecas Lopes, Joao A., Matos, M., Aris Androutsos, John Stefanakis, Antiopi Gigantidou, National Technical University of Athens [Athens] ( NTUA ), CLRC - Rutherford Appletown Laboratory, Rutherford Appletown Laboratory, Centre Énergétique et Procédés ( CEP ), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ), Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering [Thessaloniki], Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores Investigação e Desenvolvimento em Lisboa ( INESC-ID ), Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade Técnica de Lisboa ( IST ) -Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores ( INESC ), Public Power Corporation - Grèce ( PPC ), PPC, National Technical University of Athens [Athens] (NTUA), Centre Énergétique et Procédés (CEP), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores Investigação e Desenvolvimento em Lisboa (INESC-ID), Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade Técnica de Lisboa (IST)-Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores (INESC), and Public Power Corporation - Grèce (PPC)

Subjects
[ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract

International audience

Published
1999

114. Evaluation of advanced wind power and load forecasting methods for the optimal management of isolated power systems

Author

Georges Kariniotakis, Eric Nogaret, Geoff Dutton, Halliday, Jackie A., Aris Androutsos, Centre Énergétique et Procédés (CEP), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), CLRC - Rutherford Appletown Laboratory, Rutherford Appletown Laboratory, National Technical University of Athens [Athens] (NTUA), Centre Énergétique et Procédés ( CEP ), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ), and National Technical University of Athens [Athens] ( NTUA )

Subjects
[ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract

International audience

Published
1999

115. Load and wind power forecasting methods for the optimal management of isolated power systems with high wind penetration

Author

Dutton, Geoff A., Georges Kariniotakis, Halliday, Jackie A., Eric Nogaret, CLRC - Rutherford Appletown Laboratory, Rutherford Appletown Laboratory, Centre Énergétique et Procédés ( CEP ), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ), Centre Énergétique et Procédés (CEP), Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), European Project: JOR3-CT96-0119,CARE, and MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris

Subjects
[ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ
Abstract

International audience; Load demand forecasting is essential for the management of autonomous power systems. Forecasts are required for the optimal scheduling of power units for the next 2-48 hours depending on the power system size. Where such systems are subject to increasing renewable energy penetration, this renewable generation capacity is often treated as a 'negative load' due to its inherent unpredictability. A range of methods are presented and evaluated for the efficient forecasting of load and wind power generation in isolated power systems. The best of these methods have been implemented within an on-line advanced control advice system within the dispatch centre of the island of Crete. Load demand forecasting is essential for the management of autonomous power systems. Forecasts are required for the optimal scheduling of power units for the next 2-48 hours depending on the power system size. Where such systems are subject to increasing renewable energy penetration, this renewable generation capacity is often treated as a `negative load' due to its inherent unpredictability. A range of methods are presented and evaluated for the efficient forecasting of load and wind power generation in isolated power systems. The best of these methods have been implemented within an on-line advanced control advice system within the dispatch centre of the island of Crete.

Published
1999

116. The 'CARE' system overview : advanced control advice for power systems with large scale Integration of renewable Energy Sources

Author

Hatziargyriou, Nikos D., Georges Contaxis, Papadopoulos, Michaël P., Papadias, Basil C., Pecas Lopes, Joao A., Manuela Matos, Georges Kariniotakis, Eric Nogaret, Halliday, Jackie A., Dutton, Geoff A., Petros. Dokopoulos, Anastasios Bakirtzis, Aris Androutsos, John Stefanakis, Antiopi Gigantidou, National Technical University of Athens [Athens] ( NTUA ), Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores Investigação e Desenvolvimento em Lisboa ( INESC-ID ), Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade Técnica de Lisboa ( IST ) -Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores ( INESC ), Centre Énergétique et Procédés ( CEP ), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ), CLRC - Rutherford Appletown Laboratory, Rutherford Appletown Laboratory, Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering [Thessaloniki], Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Public Power Corporation - Grèce ( PPC ), PPC, PPC - Pub. Pwr. Corp./DEM/T.- Crète, National Technical University of Athens [Athens] (NTUA), Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores Investigação e Desenvolvimento em Lisboa (INESC-ID), Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade Técnica de Lisboa (IST)-Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores (INESC), Centre Énergétique et Procédés (CEP), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), and Public Power Corporation - Grèce (PPC)

Subjects
[ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ
Abstract

International audience; In this paper, CARE an advanced control system for the optimal operation and management of isolated power systems with increased wind power integration, is presented. This control system minimises the production costs through an on-line optimal scheduling of the power units, which takes into account the technical constraints of the thermal units, as well as short-term forecasts of the load and the renewable resources. The power system security is maximised through on-line security assessment modules, which predict the power system capacity to withstand pre-selected disturbances caused by power variations from both the renewable and thermal power sources or from faults. In this paper, CARE an advanced control system for the optimal operation and management of isolated power systems with increased wind power integration, is presented. This control system minimizes the production costs through an on-line optimal scheduling of the power units, which takes into account the technical constraints of the thermal units, as well as short-term forecasts of the load and the renewable resources. The power system security is maximized through on-line security assessment modules, which predict the power system capacity to withstand pre-selected disturbances caused by power variations from both the renewable and thermal power sources or from faults.

Published
1999

117. Dynamic modelling of autonomous power systems including renewable power sources

Author

Georges Kariniotakis, CEP/Sophia, Centre Énergétique et Procédés ( CEP ), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ) -MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ), Centre Énergétique et Procédés (CEP), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)

Subjects
[ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, 0207 environmental engineering, 02 engineering and technology, 020701 environmental engineering, 01 natural sciences, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Water Science and Technology
Abstract

National audience; L'article présente un modèle de simulation du comportement transitoire d'un système insulaire incluant différenrs moyens de production : groupes hydrauliques, thermiques, diesel, turbines à gaz et éoliennes. L'objectif est d'analyser l'impact d'une intégration élevée des énergies renouvelables et l'intéraction entre les groupes hydrauliques (qui ont un comportement dynamique particulier) et les éoliennes.

Published
1999
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118. Control of isolated power systems with increased PV and wind power integration

Author

Hatziargyriou, Nikos D., Papadopoulos, N., Papadias, P., Georges Contaxis, Eric Nogaret, Georges Kariniotakis, Didier Mayer, Matos, M., Pecas Lopes, Joao A., Halliday, J. A., Dutton, G., Aris Androutsos, John Stefanakis, Antiopi Gigantidou, National Technical University of Athens [Athens] (NTUA), Centre Énergétique et Procédés (CEP), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), School of of Electrical and Computer Engineering [Athens] (School of E.C.E), Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores Investigação e Desenvolvimento em Lisboa (INESC-ID), Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade Técnica de Lisboa (IST)-Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores (INESC), Public Power Corporation - Grèce (PPC), PPC, National Technical University of Athens [Athens] ( NTUA ), Centre Énergétique et Procédés ( CEP ), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ), School of of Electrical and Computer Engineering [Athens] ( School of E.C.E ), National Technical University of Athens, Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores Investigação e Desenvolvimento em Lisboa ( INESC-ID ), Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade Técnica de Lisboa ( IST ) -Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores ( INESC ), and Public Power Corporation - Grèce ( PPC )

Subjects
[ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, power system, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, wind power, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract

International audience

Published
1998

119. Advanced short-term forecasting of wind power production

Author

Georges Kariniotakis, Eric Nogaret, Georges Stavrakakis, Centre Énergétique et Procédés (CEP), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Electronic & Computing Engineering Department, Technical University of Crete [Chania], Watson, R., Centre Énergétique et Procédés ( CEP ), and MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL )

Subjects
[ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, forecasting, wind power, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract

International audience

Published
1997

120. An advanced control system for the optimal operation and management of medium size power systems with a large penetration from renewable power sources

Author

Stavros A. Papathanassiou, Georges Kariniotakis, J. Halliday, V. Karagounis, Aris Androutsos, Nikos Hatziargyriou, Eric Nogaret, M.P. Papadopoulos, J. A. Pecas Lopes, George S. Stavrakakis, J. Gatopoulos, Geoff Dutton, Centre Énergétique et Procédés ( CEP ), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ), Electronic & Computing Engineering Department, Technical University of Crete [Chania], National Technical University of Athens [Athens] ( NTUA ), Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores Investigação e Desenvolvimento em Lisboa ( INESC-ID ), Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade Técnica de Lisboa ( IST ) -Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores ( INESC ), CLRC - Rutherford Appletown Laboratory, Rutherford Appletown Laboratory, AMBER, AMBER S.A, Centre Énergétique et Procédés (CEP), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), National Technical University of Athens [Athens] (NTUA), Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores Investigação e Desenvolvimento em Lisboa (INESC-ID), and Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade Técnica de Lisboa (IST)-Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores (INESC)

Subjects
Engineering, isolated diesel, [ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, Power system security, Wind power, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, business.industry, 020209 energy, 020208 electrical & electronic engineering, Electrical engineering, 02 engineering and technology, Power plants, Wind,Wind farms,Wind power parks,Windfarms,wind power plants,power plants wind,wind farms,wind power parks,windfarms, 7. Clean energy, Reliability engineering, Renewable energy, Electric power system, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, general simulation algorithm, Optimal scheduling, Hybrid system, Control system, 0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering, accurate assessment, business, Renewable resource
Abstract

Summarization: An advanced control system for the optimal operation and management of autonomous wind-diesel systems is presented. This system minimises the production costs through an on-line optimal scheduling of the power units, which takes into account the technical constraints of the diesel units, as well as short-term forecasts of the load and renewable resources. The power system security is maximised through on-line security assessment modules, which enable the power system to withstand sudden changes in the production of the renewable sources. The control system was evaluated using data from the island of Lemnos, where it has been installed and operated since January 1995. Παρουσιάστηκε στο: Renewable Energy

Published
1997
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121. Wind Power Forecasting Using Advanced Neural Networks Models

Author

Eric Nogaret, George S. Stavrakakis, Georges Kariniotakis, CEP/Sophia, Centre Énergétique et Procédés (CEP), Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Technical University of Crete [Chania], European Project: JOU2-CT92-0053,LEMNOS, Centre Énergétique et Procédés ( CEP ), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ) -MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ), Electronic & Computing Engineering Department, MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris

Subjects
Engineering, 020209 energy, Energy Engineering and Power Technology, Wind power forecasting, 02 engineering and technology, 7. Clean energy, WECS (Wind energy conversion systems),wind energy conversion systems,wecs wind energy conversion systems, Predictive models, Electric power system, Power system management, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, Artificial Intelligence, 0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering, Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Wind energy, Optimization methods, Wind forecasting, [ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, Wind power, Artificial neural network, Mathematical model, business.industry, Renewable energies, Control engineering, Optimal control, Control system synthesis, Power system modeling, Recurrent neural network, Recurrent neural networks, Control system, 020201 artificial intelligence & image processing, business, Neural networks
Abstract

International audience; In this paper, an advanced model, based on recurrent high order neural networks, is developed for the prediction of the power output profile of a wind park. This model outperforms simple methods like persistence, as well as classical methods in the literature. The architecture of a forecasting model is optimised automatically by a new algorithm, that substitutes the usually applied trial-and-error method. Finally, the online implementation of the developed model into an advanced control system for the optimal operation and management of a real autonomous wind-diesel power system, is presented.

Published
1996
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122. Development and implementation of an advanced control system for the optimal operation and management of medium-sized power systems with a large penetration from renewable power sources

Author

Georges Kariniotakis, Eric Nogaret, CEP/Sophia, Centre Énergétique et Procédés ( CEP ), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ) -MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ), Centre Énergétique et Procédés (CEP), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)

Subjects
Energy research, [ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, Renewable sources of energy
Abstract

International audience; The islands of the European Union represent a large potential for the installation of wind farms and PV plants due to their wind and solar resources and the high cost of electricity production in the isolated networks. However, in order to achieve a high level of integration of renewable energy plants, while maintaining a security in the grid, an advanced control system must be available to help the power system operators on site. This is the objective of the JOULE Π Project N° JOU2-CT92-0053 titled as : "Development and implementation of an advanced control system for the optimal operation and management of medium size power systems with a large penetration from renewable power sources". An advanced control system has been developed by the partners of the project and has been installed in the Greek island of Lemnos. The island of Lemnos has an installed diesel capacity of 13.25 MW and two wind farms with a total capacity of 1.14 MW.

Published
1996

123. A general simulation algorithm for the accurate assessment of isolated diesel-wind turbines systems interaction. I. A general multimachine power system model

Author

George S. Stavrakakis, Georges Kariniotakis, Electronic & Computing Engineering Department, Technical University of Crete [Chania], CEP/Sophia, Centre Énergétique et Procédés (CEP), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Centre Énergétique et Procédés ( CEP ), and MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ) -MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL )

Subjects
Engineering, Equations, 020209 energy, Energy Engineering and Power Technology, Electric generator, 02 engineering and technology, Power plants, Wind,Wind farms,Wind power parks,Windfarms,wind power plants,power plants wind,wind farms,wind power parks,windfarms, computer.software_genre, Software performance, 7. Clean energy, Turbine, law.invention, Electric power system, Power system simulation, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, law, Component (UML), Power system dynamics, 0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering, Analytical models, Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Wind energy, Power system analysis computing, [ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, Wind power, business.industry, 020208 electrical & electronic engineering, Control engineering, Power system stability, Power system modeling, Simulation software, Hybrid system, Power system transients, business, computer
Abstract

Summarization: In the first part of this two-part paper, detailed dynamic equations for the power system and wind energy conversion system (WECS) components and their synthesis to a unified model are presented. This model is the basis for creating simulation software able to perform the transient stability analysis of isolated diesel-wind turbine power systems for accurate assessment of their interaction. Approximations in the various component models, when necessary, remain between limits that do not affect the accuracy of the analysis performed. A new general multimachine power system model is also developed which describes the topology and the complexity of wind-diesel power systems in a compact form which is easy to implement in the simulation software Presented on: IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion

Published
1995
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124. A general simulation algorithm for the accurate assessment of isolated diesel-wind turbines systems interaction. Part II: Implementation of the algorithm and case-studies with induction generators

Author

Georges Kariniotakis, George S. Stavrakakis, CEP/Sophia, Centre Énergétique et Procédés ( CEP ), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ) -MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ), Electronic & Computing Engineering Department, Technical University of Crete [Chania], Centre Énergétique et Procédés (CEP), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)

Subjects
Engineering, [ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, Wind power, business.industry, 020209 energy, 020208 electrical & electronic engineering, Induction generator, Energy Engineering and Power Technology, Control engineering, 02 engineering and technology, computer.software_genre, 7. Clean energy, Turbine, WECS (Wind energy conversion systems),wind energy conversion systems,wecs wind energy conversion systems, Simulation software, Electric power system, Software, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, Component (UML), Hybrid system, 0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering, Electrical and Electronic Engineering, business, computer, Algorithm
Abstract

Summarization: In the second part of this two-part paper, a general algorithm to simulate and assess the dynamic behavior of any isolated diesel-wind turbine power system is analyzed and implemented. It is presented how the various power system and wind energy conversion system (WECS) component models described in detail in Part I of the paper can be implemented in order to create integrated simulation software. Case studies for the small size isolated power system on the French island of Desirade are given and analyzed. The algorithm is validated and its usefulness to determine the wind energy penetration level at any disturbed operation conditions is demonstrated Presented on: IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion

Published
1995
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125. Stochastic optimization techniques for the optimal combination of wind power generation and energy storage in a market environment

Author

Costa, L. M., Bourry, F., Georges Kariniotakis, Centre Énergétique et Procédés (CEP), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Centre Énergétique et Procédés ( CEP ), and MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL )

Subjects
[ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, Energy storage, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, Physics::Space Physics, Wind power, optimization, Physics::Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Power generation
Abstract

International audience; This paper proposes a new method, based on stochastic optimization, for managing the operation of a wind farm in conjunction with energy storage. The main objective is to maximize the benefit of the joint operation of wind generators and energy storage devices, while considering the stochastic nature of wind power production and electricity market prices. The paper presents results of the application of the methodology in decision-making processes related to wind power management.

126. Forecasting uncertainty related to ramps of wind power production

Author

Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard, Georges Kariniotakis, CEP/Sophia, Centre Énergétique et Procédés (CEP), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Centre Énergétique et Procédés ( CEP ), and MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ) -MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL )

Subjects
[ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, phase errors, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, ComputerApplications_MISCELLANEOUS, ramps, forecasts ensemble, wind power forecast, Physics::Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
Abstract

International audience; The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power integration. Today forecasters are challenged in providing forecasts able to handle extreme situations. This paper presents two methods focusing on forecasting large and sharp variations in power output of a wind farm called ramps. The fi rst one provides probabilistic forecasts using large temporal scales information about ramps. The second method uses ensembles to generate con dence intervals allowing to better estimate the timing of ramps. The two methods are tested and results are given for a real case study.

127. Ressource vent et maîtrise de la production

Author

Georges Kariniotakis, Centre Procédés, Énergies Renouvelables, Systèmes Énergétiques ( PERSEE ), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ), Centre Procédés, Énergies Renouvelables, Systèmes Énergétiques (PERSEE), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)

Subjects
[ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract

National audience

128. Towards smart integration of wind generation

Author

Gregor Giebel, Peter Meibom, Pierre Pinson, Georges Kariniotakis, Risø National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy (Risø DTU), Technical University of Denmark [Lyngby] (DTU), CEP/Sophia, Centre Énergétique et Procédés (CEP), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Nicolaos Cutululis and Poul Sørensen (eds.), Risø National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy ( Risø DTU ), Technical University of Denmark [Lyngby] ( DTU ), Centre Énergétique et Procédés ( CEP ), and MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ) -MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL )

Subjects
[ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ
Abstract

International audience; This paper presents current and future challenges for the integration of wind power into the grid using shortterm predictions. This includes the currently running virtual laboratories of the EU project POW'WOW as well as the research methodology of the soon-to-start EU projects ANEMOS.PLUS and SafeWind, which aim to develop advanced tools for the management of electricity grids with large-scale wind generation and to get a better handle on extreme events. Focus in ANEMOS.PLUS is given to functions such as optimal scheduling, reserves estimation, bottleneck management, storage management and also optimal trading in electricity markets. For all of them, short-term forecasting as well as uncertainty estimation plays a major role. However, this information is not yet fully integrated in daily practices. The aim is thus to propose advanced tools for the above functions that integrate the full information on the expected wind generation. In order to demonstrate the value of these tools for end-users, demonstration projects in eight European countries including Denmark are defined. SafeWind on the other hand is a project more focussed on research, especially research in extreme events. Those can be extreme winds, but also extreme forecast errors, requiring an extraordinary amount of reserve capacity. In order to help forecasters to estimate their models against the state-of-the-art models, a Virtual Laboratory for short-term prediction has been instantiated under the POW'WOW project.

129. Next Generation Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Power – Overview of the ANEMOS Project

Author

Kariniotakis, Georges, Halliday, J., Brownsword, R., Ignacio Marti, Palomares, Ana Maria, Cruz, I., Madsen, H., Nielsen, T. S., Nielsen, Henrik Aa, Focken, Ulrich, Lange, Matthias, Kallos, George, Louka, Petroula, Hatziargyriou, Nikos D., Frayssinet, P., Waldl, I., Dierich, Félix, Giebel, Gregor, Barthelmie, Rebecca Jane, Badger, Jake, Usaola, Julio, Sanchez, I., Heinemann, Detlev, Tambke, Jens, Moussafir, J., Descombes, G., Calleja, M., Jouhanique, T., Toefting, J., O Donnel, P., Ryan, M., Indorf, J., Barquero, C., Seguardo, P., Gigandidou, A., Thalassinakis, M., Gonzales, G., Bryans, L., Garrett, D., Centre Énergétique et Procédés (CEP), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), CCLRC-RAL, CENER, Centro Nacional de Energias Renovables, CIEMAT, Ministerio de la Ciencia y de la Innovacion, Department of Informatics and Mathematical Modeling [Lyngby] (DTU), Technical University of Denmark [Lyngby] (DTU), Fachbereich Informatik - Oldenburg, Carl Von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens (NKUA), National Technical University of Athens [Athens] (NTUA), Météo-France [Paris], Météo France, overspeed GmBh&CoKG, GmBh&CoKG, Risø National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy (Risø DTU), Universidad Carlos III de Madrid [Madrid] (UC3M), ARIA Technologies, Institut Mediterrani d'Estudis Avancats (IMEDEA), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (CSIC)-Universidad de las Islas Baleares (UIB), EDF R&D (EDF R&D), EDF (EDF), ELSAM, ESB Nat. Grid, ESB Nat. Grid., EWE - Germany, EWE, IDAE - Spain, PPC - Greece, PPC, REE, SONI, Centre Énergétique et Procédés ( CEP ), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ), Department of Informatics and Mathematical Modeling, Technical University of Denmark [Lyngby] ( DTU ), University of Oldenburg, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, National Technical University of Athens [Athens] ( NTUA ), Risø National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy ( Risø DTU ), Universidad Carlos III de Madrid [Madrid], Institut Mediterrani d'Estudis Avancats ( IMEDEA ), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Spain] ( CSIC ) -Universidad de las Islas Baleares ( UIB ), EDF R&D ( EDF R&D ), and EDF ( EDF )

Subjects
numerical weather predictions, [ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, tools for wind integration, on-line software, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, short-term forecasting, Wind power
Abstract

International audience; The aim of the European Project ANEMOS is to develop accurate and robust models that substantially outperform current state-of-the-art methods, for onshore and offshore wind power forecasting. Advanced statistical, physical and combined modelling approaches were developed for this purpose. Priority was given to methods for on-line uncertainty and prediction risk assessment. An integrated software platform, 'ANEMOS', was developed to host the various models. This system is installed by several end-users for on-line operation and evaluation at a local, regional and national scale. Finally, the project demonstrates the value of wind forecasts for the power system management and market integration of wind power. Keywords: Wind power, short-term forecasting, numerical weather predictions, on-line software, tools for wind integration.

130. An advanced On-line Wind Resource Prediction system for the optimal management of wind park

Author

Georges Kariniotakis, Didier Mayer, Centre Énergétique et Procédés ( CEP ), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ), Centre Énergétique et Procédés (CEP), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)

Subjects
numerical weather predictions, [ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, on-line software, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, [ SPI.NRJ ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/Electric power, [SPI.NRJ]Engineering Sciences [physics]/Electric power, adaptive fuzzy-neural networks, Wind power, time-series forecasting
Abstract

International audience; The paper presents an advanced wind forecasting system that uses on-line SCADA measurements, as well as numerical weather predictions as input to predict the power production of wind parks 48 hours ahead. The prediction tool integrates models based on adaptive fuzzy-neural networks configured either for short-term or long-term forecasting. In each case, the model architecture is selected through non-linear optimization techniques. The forecasting system is integrated within the MORE-CARE EMS software developed in the frame of a European research project. Within this on-line platform, the forecasting module provides forecasts and confidence intervals for the wind farms in a power system, which can be directly used by economic dispatch and unit commitment functions. The platform can run also as a stand-alone application destined only for wind forecasting. Detailed results are presented on the performance of the developed models on a real wind farm using HIRLAM numerical weather predictions as input.

131. Towards Improved Wind Power Forecasting Technology with Focus on Extremes. The SafeWind Project

Author

Georges Kariniotakis, CEP/Sophia, Centre Énergétique et Procédés (CEP), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Centre Énergétique et Procédés ( CEP ), and MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ) -MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL )

Subjects
[ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract

International audience

132. Short-term wind power forecasting using advanced statistical methods

Author

Nielsen, T. S., Madsen, H., Nielsen, H. Aa, Pinson, Pierre, Kariniotakis, Georges, Siebert, Nils, Ignacio Marti, Lange, Matthias, Focken, Ulrich, Bremen, Lueder V., Louka, G., Kallos, George, Galanis, Georges, Department of Informatics and Mathematical Modeling, Technical University of Denmark [Lyngby] ( DTU ), Centre Énergétique et Procédés ( CEP ), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ), CENER, Centro Nacional de Energias Renovables, Fachbereich Informatik - Oldenburg, University of Oldenburg, Carl Von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg, Division of Applied Physics, Atmospheric Modelling and Weather Forecasting Group, National Technical University of Athens, Department of Informatics and Mathematical Modeling [Lyngby] (DTU), Technical University of Denmark [Lyngby] (DTU), Centre Énergétique et Procédés (CEP), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), and National Technical University of Athens [Athens] (NTUA)

Subjects
upscaling, probabilistic forecasts, [ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, power curve, uncertainty estimation, wind farmpower curve, adaptation, Forecasting
Abstract

Disponible sur : http://anemos.cma.fr/download/publications/pub_2006_paper_EWEC06_WP3statistical.pdf; International audience; This paper describes some of the statistical methods considered in the ANEMOS project for short-termforecasting of wind power. The total procedure typically involves various steps, and all these steps are described in the paper. These steps include downscaling from reference MET forecasts to the actual wind farm, wind farm power curve models, dynamical models for prediction of wind power or wind speed, estimating the uncertainty of the wind power forecast, and finally, methods for upscaling are considered. The upscaling part considers how a total regional production can be estimated using a small number of reference wind farms. Keywords: Forecasting, power curve, wind farmpower curve, upscaling, uncertainty estimation, probabilistic forecasts, adaptation.

133. Advanced spatio-temporal wind power forecasting with distributed wind farms as sensors

Author

Robin Girard, Arthur Bossavy, Georges Kariniotakis, Centre Procédés, Énergies Renouvelables, Systèmes Énergétiques ( PERSEE ), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ), Centre Procédés, Énergies Renouvelables, Systèmes Énergétiques (PERSEE), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)

Subjects
[ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, Short-term forecasting, Measurement & monitoring
Abstract

International audience; The large density of wind farm installations in an electricity grid imposes several challenges to the economic and secure power system operation. The capacity of the power system to accommodate large shares of wind generation is enhanced by good quality forecasts (i.e. few minutes up to few days ahead) of the wind production. On the other hand, most wind farm facilities spread over a territory nowadays are equipped with measurement systems (anemometers, SCADA, ...). When this information is collected centrally, it allows monitoring the weather and energy situation with a greater temporal granularity than what can be handled by meteorological models. Considering distributed wind farms as measuring stations presents an opportunity for improved monitoring and forecasting of wind generation. Previous works have shown what type of improvement can be obtained in wind power forecasting with a spatio-temporal model integrating regional aggregated data into a single model. For some regions in Denmark an accuracy improvement up to 15% could be obtained for one hour ahead forecasts. In this paper, we propose to show how to integrate spatio-temporal wind power production data into a statistical model at a finer spatial resolution. The aim is to consider transformation stations or wind farms over an area as simultaneous data entries. A statistical forecasting approach is proposed for this purpose. The problem of dimensionality of the statistical model is addressed by proposing a sparse model with an appropriate dynamical term relating the local wind speed and direction to planar wave propagation term. Beyond the measured power data, the interest of integrating meteorological observations into this dynamic spatio-temporal model is shown. The methodology is applied to the test case of Denmark with a resolution going down to the transformation stations (aggregation points of several wind farms). By this way more than 300 spatial points are taken into account. Historical data sets of more than 5 years at a 15 minutes resolution were used. The obtained accuracy improvement for the entire area considered of Denmark exceeds 15 % and for some regions, it exceeds 25 % for up to 4 hours ahead. These results are very promising and demonstrate that without additional cost , but by using the existing infrastructure , one can obtain considerable improvement in the forecasts accuracy.

134. The anemos wind power forecasting platform technology - Techniques and experiences

Author

Igor Waldl, Félix Dierich, Georges Kariniotakis, Alexis Bocquet, Silvère Virlot, overspeed GmBh&CoKG, GmBh&CoKG, Centre Énergétique et Procédés ( CEP ), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ), Centre Énergétique et Procédés (CEP), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)

Subjects
[ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, system integration, software development, Wind Energy, scheduling, power trading, wind power prediction
Abstract

Disponible : http://www.ewec2006proceedings.info/allfiles2/966_Ewec2006fullpaper.pdf; International audience; In the framework of the Anemos project we developed a professional, flexible platform for operating wind power prediction models, laying the main focus on state-of-the-art IT techniques, inter-platform operability, availability and safety of operation. Currently, 7 plug-in prediction models from all over Europe are able to work on this platform.

135. Presentation of European projects Grid4EU and Microgrids

Author

Georges Kariniotakis, Centre Procédés, Énergies Renouvelables, Systèmes Énergétiques ( PERSEE ), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ), CCI France et le projet STEEP, Centre Procédés, Énergies Renouvelables, Systèmes Énergétiques (PERSEE), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)

Subjects
[ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract

International audience

136. Challenges with the Integration of Renewables into Power Systems and Electricity Markets - The Role of Predictability

Author

Georges Kariniotakis, Centre Procédés, Énergies Renouvelables, Systèmes Énergétiques (PERSEE), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Centre Procédés, Énergies Renouvelables, Systèmes Énergétiques ( PERSEE ), and MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL )

Subjects
Smart-grid, [ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ
Abstract

International audience; Dr. Georges Kariniotakis, Responsable du groupe Energies Renouvelables et SmartGrids du Centre PERSEE aux MINES ParisTech, a traité du rôle de la prédictibilité en lien avec les défis de l’intégration des énergies renouvelables dans les systèmes de production électrique et des marchés de l’électricité. Il a présenté également les résultats principaux du projet de démonstration NICE GRID, un des projets les plus importants en France dans le domaine.

137. Evaluation of Advanced Wind Power Forecasting Models – Results of the Anemos Project

Author

Ignacio Marti, Kariniotakis, Georges, Pinson, Pierre, Sanchez, I., Nielsen, T. S., Madsen, Henrik, Giebel, Gregor, Usaola, Julio, Palomares, Ana Maria, Brownsword, R., Tambke, Jens, Focken, Ulrich, Lange, Matthias, Sideratos, G., Descombes, G., CENER, Centro Nacional de Energias Renovables, Centre Énergétique et Procédés (CEP), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Departamento Ingeniería Telemática, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid [Madrid] (UC3M), Department of Informatics and Mathematical Modeling [Lyngby] (DTU), Technical University of Denmark [Lyngby] (DTU), Risø National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy (Risø DTU), CIEMAT, Ministerio de la Ciencia y de la Innovacion, CCLRC-RAL, Fachbereich Informatik - Oldenburg, Carl Von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg, National Technical University of Athens [Athens] (NTUA), ARIA Technologies, Centre Énergétique et Procédés ( CEP ), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ), Universidad Carlos III de Madrid [Madrid], Department of Informatics and Mathematical Modeling, Technical University of Denmark [Lyngby] ( DTU ), Risø National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy ( Risø DTU ), University of Oldenburg, and National Technical University of Athens [Athens] ( NTUA )

Subjects
[ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, forecasting model, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, wind power
Abstract

Disponible : http://www.ewec2006proceedings.info/allfiles2/969_Ewec2006fullpaper.pdf; International audience; An outstanding question posed today by end-users like power system operators, wind power producers or traders is what performance can be expected by state-of-the-art wind power prediction models. This paper presents results of the first ever intercomparison of a number of advanced prediction systems performed in the frame of the European project Anemos. A framework for error characterization has been developed consisting by a measure- and a distribution-oriented approach. This comparison has given a perspective of the possibilities and limitations of the forecasts in the different test cases that were defined. At a second stage, the homogenous comparison process has permitted to evaluate the possibility of obtaining better performance by exploiting the merits of individual models through model combination. The paper presents the methodology and results from the combination approach.

138. Benefits from the increased contribution of the European weather forecasting community to wind power prediction

Author

Pierre Pinson, Thomas Petroliagis, Robin Girard, Georges Kariniotakis, Frédéric Chavaux, Roberto Buizza, CEP/Sophia, Centre Énergétique et Procédés (CEP), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Centre Énergétique et Procédés ( CEP ), and MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ) -MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL )

Subjects
[ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, weather forecasting, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract

International audience

139. MORE CARE Overview

Author

Hatziargyriou, Nikos D., Georges Contaxis, Atsaves, A., Manuela Matos, Pecas Lopes, Joao A., Mh. Vasconcelos, Georges Kariniotakis, Didier Mayer, James Halliday, Geoff. Dutton, Stefanakis, J., Gigantidou, A., Donnell, Philip O., Damian Mccoy, Dokopoulos, P., Mj. Fernandes, Jms Cotrim, Ap Figueira, National Technical University of Athens [Athens] (NTUA), Power system Unit of INESC, Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores (INESC), Centre Énergétique et Procédés (CEP), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), CCLRC-RAL, Public Power Corporation - Grèce (PPC), PPC, ESB National Grid - Power System Operations, ESB National Grid - Power System Operation, AUTH (AUTH), AUTH, Empresa de Electricidade da Madeira (EEM), EEM, National Technical University of Athens [Athens] ( NTUA ), Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores ( INESC ), Centre Énergétique et Procédés ( CEP ), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ), Public Power Corporation - Grèce ( PPC ), AUTH ( AUTH ), and Empresa de Electricidade da Madeira ( EEM )

Subjects
[ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, Fore- casting Methods, [ SPI.NRJ ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/Electric power, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, Utility-Integration, Operational Planning, [SPI.NRJ]Engineering Sciences [physics]/Electric power, Control Systems, Security Assessment
Abstract

International audience; This paper provides an overview of MORE CARE, a European R&D project financed within the 5th Framework Energy Programme. This project has as main objective the development of an advanced control software system, aiming to optimize the overall performance of isolated and weakly interconnected systems in liberalized market environments by increasing the share of wind energy and other renewable forms, including advanced on-line security functions. The main features of the control system comprise advanced software modules for load and wind power forecasting, unit commitment and economic dispatch of the conventional and renewable units and on-line security assessment capabilities integrated in a friendly Man-Machine environment. Pilot installations of advanced control functions are foreseen on the islands of Crete, Ireland and Madeira.

140. Dynamic line rating day-ahead forecasts - cost benefit based selection of the optimal quantile

Author

Romain Dupin, Georges Kariniotakis, Andrea Michiorri, Centre Procédés, Énergies Renouvelables, Systèmes Énergétiques ( PERSEE ), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ), CIREC - Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement, Centre Procédés, Énergies Renouvelables, Systèmes Énergétiques (PERSEE), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)

Subjects
Engineering, [ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, Operations research, business.industry, 020209 energy, 020208 electrical & electronic engineering, Probabilistic logic, Renewable energies, 02 engineering and technology, 7. Clean energy, Economic benefits, Renewable energy, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, Weather data, 0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering, Ampacity, Forecast, Cost benefit, business, Overhead line, Dynamic Line Rating, Quantile
Abstract

International audience; Dynamic Line Rating (DLR) is a promising field of research aiming to help network operators face challenges, such as increased penetration of renewable energies and peak electricity demand. Research on real-time overhead line ampacity estimation is currently advanced and, in the last few years, research has started to address medium-term DLR forecasting. The focus is on probabilistic forecasts, in order to select ratings associated with very low probability of occurrence. For this reason, 1%-quantiles are usually selected. In this paper, the authors propose a methodology for selecting the most appropriate quantiles based on a cost-benefit analysis, considering both the economic benefits of an increased line ampacity and the costs associated with a DLR forecast that is higher than its observed value. The proposed methodology is evaluated using realistic weather data on a virtual line connecting Belgium and France.

141. Evaluation of the level of prediction errors of wind and PV in a future with a large amount of renewables

Author

Robin Girard, Arthur Bossavy, Loïc Legars, Georges Kariniotakis, Centre Procédés, Énergies Renouvelables, Systèmes Énergétiques ( PERSEE ), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ), European Wind Energy Association, Centre Procédés, Énergies Renouvelables, Systèmes Énergétiques (PERSEE), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)

Subjects
[ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, PV Energy, Wind Energy, Renewable Energy, Prediction, Physics::Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
Abstract

International audience; In a future with a large amount of renewable energies integrated into the distribution system there are many kind of new constraint that cannot be considered apriori as un-active in the power distribution system operation and planning. This includes short term (few hours in advance) forecast errors of the production. However their importance is subject to the so called aggregation effect and cannot be considered as a linear function of the installed capacity. Furthermore this aggregation effect highly depends on the considered geographical perimeter. In this paper we presents a methodology to estimate the level of short term forecast error at any spatial scale and we apply the methodology in the case of France, and regions of France. Before simulating forecast error, we describe the methodology used to simulate hourly wind power and solar power production at any location. Wind power is simulated through the use of a statistically calibrated power curve a spatio-temporal field of win simulation obtained from the use of a meteorological model in reanalysis mode. Solar power simulation are based on the use of SODA estimation of surface solar irradiation at a hourly resolution and at the spatial scale of 3km. SODA data rely on the use of satellite images and physical modeling of radiative transfer in the atmosphere. Both models to simulate production are validated on real data. Our methodology for simulating forecast error mimic real forecasting performed on the simulated production data. The real forecasting model is simplified in order to allow a large quantity of computation repetitions. In the case of PV forecasting as well as in the case of Wind Power forecasting, it uses as input two explanatory variables: meteorological forecast of ECMWF (of wind speed for wind power and of surface solar irradiation fot PC) and closed past production measurement. The simulation is performed along several years and thousands of different implantation configurations. The distribution of errors is analyzed as a function of the spatial scale and the chosen horizon.

142. A novel approach for electric load curve holistic modelling and simulation

Author

Nicolas Kong, Robin Girard, Georges Kariniotakis, François-Pascal Neirac, Thibaut Barbier, Centre Procédés, Énergies Renouvelables, Systèmes Énergétiques (PERSEE), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), ERDF, Centre Procédés, Énergies Renouvelables, Systèmes Énergétiques ( PERSEE ), and MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL )

Subjects
Matching (statistics), Electrical load, Computer science, smartgrids, 020209 energy, 02 engineering and technology, 7. Clean energy, Set (abstract data type), DSO, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, 020401 chemical engineering, automatic calibration, 0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering, statistical modelling, 0204 chemical engineering, electric load curve modelling, Simulation, [ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, electric load curve comparison, Physical model, Statistical model, Grey box, grey box models, power system planning, large databases, Voltage
Abstract

International audience; This paper presents a novel approach of an electric load curve simulator using a set of grey box models that results to an efficient trade-off between complete and complex physical models and fast simplified statistical models. The input parameters are macroscopic data coming from large databases such as national census, DSO’s client information and meteorological data such as temperature or irradiation data. The problem of matching between the different databases is investigated to assess comparable load curves. Validation is performed using load measurements at the medium voltage level. Once the model is calibrated it can be turned into a good prediction tool useful for planning studies since it permits easily to incorporate the evolution of usages, the characteristics of consumption devices, as well as the evolution of the building’s characteristics.

143. ANEMOS - Leading European Union Research on Wind Power Forecasting The ANEMOS Forecasting System

Author

Georges Kariniotakis, CEP/Sophia, Centre Énergétique et Procédés ( CEP ), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ) -MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ), Centre Énergétique et Procédés (CEP), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)

Subjects
[ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract

International audience

144. An advanced control system for wind/diesel power systems

Author

Eric Nogaret, Georges Stavrakakis, Georges Kariniotakis, CEP/Sophia, Centre Énergétique et Procédés ( CEP ), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ) -MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ), Electronic & Computing Engineering Department, Technical University of Crete [Chania], Centre Énergétique et Procédés (CEP), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)

Subjects
Diesel power, [ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, Wind power
Abstract

International audience; In this paper an advanced control system for the optimal operation and management of medium-sized autonomous wind-diesel power systems is presented. This control system minimises the production costs through an on-line optimal scheduling of the power units, which takes into account the technical constraints of the diesel-units, as well as short-term forecasts of the load and the renewable resources. The power system security is maximised through on-line security assessment modules, which enable the power system to withstand sudden changes in the production of the renewable sources. The control system was evaluated using data from the island of Lemnos, where it has been installed and operates since January 1995.

145. Resolution enhancement of input parameters in a demand side management model

Author

P. Imbert, François-Pascal Neirac, Georges Kariniotakis, Philippe Blanc, Centre Énergétique et Procédés ( CEP ), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ), European Institute For Energy Research ( EIFER ), Universität Karlsruhe-EDF R&D ( EDF R&D ), EDF ( EDF ) -EDF ( EDF ), Centre Énergétique et Procédés (CEP), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), European Institute For Energy Research (EIFER), Universität Karlsruhe (TH)-EDF R&D (EDF R&D), and EDF (EDF)-EDF (EDF)

Subjects
Mathematical optimization, Engineering, Monte Carlo method, 0211 other engineering and technologies, 02 engineering and technology, 01 natural sciences, 010104 statistics & probability, Electric power system, ranking based correlation method, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, sensitivity analysis, Sensitivity (control systems), 0101 mathematics, Image resolution, Monte Carlo simulation, Demand-side management, 021110 strategic, defence & security studies, [ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, input parameter selection, business.industry, Control engineering, Energy planning, territorial energy planning, Ranking, Distributed generation, business, Level of detail
Abstract

©2010 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. However, permission to reprint/republish this material for advertising or promotional purposes or for creating new collective works for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or to reuse any copyrighted component of this work in other works must be obtained from the IEEE.; International audience; Demand side management (DSM) and distributed generation (DG) introduce into power systems new dynamics and behaviors which must be taken into account in the planning and operation of the system. This paper presents a model that aims to simulate the spread out effects of DSM actions in a region. This model is suitable designed to represent the territorial or local specificities of each studied area where the DSM actions apply. The model involves a large number of input data. The main question is what should be the optimal level of detail this data has to be collected in terms of spatial resolution so that meaningful results are obtained. The paper presents a method to define the input data which are critical to collect with a higher spatial resolution. Results for a case study in France are presented.

146. An optimisation algorithm for matching large scale databases on customers for improved characterisation of electricity consumption

Author

Elena Magliaro, Thibaut Barbier, Nicolas Kong, Georges Kariniotakis, François-Pascal Neirac, Robin Girard, Centre Procédés, Énergies Renouvelables, Systèmes Énergétiques ( PERSEE ), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ), ENEDIS, Centre Procédés, Énergies Renouvelables, Systèmes Énergétiques (PERSEE), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)

Subjects
Consumption (economics), Matching (statistics), electricity consumption, [ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, Database, business.industry, Scale (chemistry), optimization algorithm, Top-down and bottom-up design, database matching, Customer information, computer.software_genre, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, housings, Order (business), electricity customers, Optimisation algorithm, Electricity, business, computer
Abstract

International audience; This paper presents a method that permits to match customer information from the French DSO Enedis and housing information from the French population census institute INSEE. Our method allows having a list of housings linked to each customer in order to add household and building information to customers. We show with our method improvements in predictions of aggregated load curve indicators compared to the traditional method that averages socio demographic indicators from housing information of the zone covered by measurements. Our results indicate that the proposed algorithm is able to capture efficiently the information of housings in some feeders. This permits to combine the databases of the DSO with external databases that exist from census or other processes. Enriching the information at the level of clients through the proposed automated way is a cost effective approach given the number of customers served by a DSO. This enhanced information can be then the basis to model, analyse and simulate demand in a bottom up approach which can be useful for planning purposes of the distribution networks.

147. R&D roadmap for wind energy

Author

Georges Kariniotakis, Centre Procédés, Énergies Renouvelables, Systèmes Énergétiques (PERSEE), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), ADEME, CNRS, UNESCO, Centre Procédés, Énergies Renouvelables, Systèmes Énergétiques ( PERSEE ), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ), and ADEME, CNRS, UNESCO

Subjects
[ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, Wind energy
Abstract

International audience; I am with the Centre for Processes, Renewable Energies and Energy Systems at MINES ParisTech. PERSEE (ex. CEP) is a research centre with a long history in research on renewable energies dating back to the seventies. Today, I am here in my capacity as a member of the Steering Committee of the European Wind Energy Technology Platform, TPWind, and under this title I was invited to present the research and development perspectives and roadmap for 2030 and 2050 for the wind energy sector in Europe ...

148. Field Tests on Actual Microgrids

Author

Georges Kariniotakis, CEP/Sophia, Centre Énergétique et Procédés (CEP), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Centre Énergétique et Procédés ( CEP ), and MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL ) -MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL )

Subjects
[ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract

International audience

149. Data mining for wind power forecasting

Author

Lionel Fugon, Jérémie Juban, Georges Kariniotakis, Centre Énergétique et Procédés (CEP), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Centre Énergétique et Procédés ( CEP ), and MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris-PSL Research University ( PSL )

Subjects
[ SPI.ENERG ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, ComputerApplications_MISCELLANEOUS, wind farm, forecasting, Wind power, wind energy production
Abstract

International audience; Short-term forecasting of wind energy production up to 2-3 days ahead is recognized as a major contribution for reliable large-scale wind power integration. Increasing the value of wind generation through the improvement of prediction systems performance is recognised as one of the priorities in wind energy research needs for the coming years. This paper aims to evaluate Data Mining type of models for wind power forecasting. Models that are examined include neural networks, support vector machines, the recently proposed regression trees approach, and others. Evaluation results are presented for several real wind farms.

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