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Background: External validation of prognostic models is necessary to assess the accuracy and generalizability of the model to new patients. If models are validated in a setting in which competing events occur, these competing risks should be accounted for when comparing predicted risks to observed outcomes., Methods: We discuss existing measures of calibration and discrimination that incorporate competing events for time-to-event models. These methods are illustrated using a clinical-data example concerning the prediction of kidney failure in a population with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD), using the guideline-recommended Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE). The KFRE was developed using Cox regression in a diverse population of CKD patients and has been proposed for use in patients with advanced CKD in whom death is a frequent competing event., Results: When validating the 5-year KFRE with methods that account for competing events, it becomes apparent that the 5-year KFRE considerably overestimates the real-world risk of kidney failure. The absolute overestimation was 10%age points on average and 29%age points in older high-risk patients., Conclusions: It is crucial that competing events are accounted for during external validation to provide a more reliable assessment the performance of a model in clinical settings in which competing risks occur., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.)

The current method to protect cattle against East Coast Fever (ECF) involves the use of live Theileria parva sporozoites. Although this provides immunity, using live parasites has many disadvantages, such as contributing to the spread of ECF. Subunit vaccines based on the sporozoite surface protein p67 have been investigated as a replacement for the current method. In this study, two DNA vaccines expressing recombinant forms of p67 designed to display on retrovirus-like particles were constructed with the aim of improving immunogenicity. The native leader sequence was replaced with the human tissue plasminogen activator leader in both vaccines. The full-length p67 gene was included in the first DNA vaccine (p67); in the second, the transmembrane domain and cytoplasmic tail were replaced with those of an influenza A virus hemagglutinin 5 (p67HA). Immunofluorescent staining of fixed and live transfected mammalian cells showed that both p67 and p67HA were successfully expressed, and p67HA localised on the cell surface. Furthermore, p67HA was displayed on the surface of both bovine leukaemia virus (BLV) Gag and HIV-1 Gag virus-like particles (VLPs) made in the same cells. Mice vaccinated with DNA vaccines expressing p67 and p67HA alone, or p67HA with BLV or HIV-1 Gag, developed high titres of p67 and BLV Gag-binding antibodies. Here we show that it is possible to integrate a form of p67 containing all known antigenic domains into VLPs. This p67HA-VLP combination has the potential to be incorporated into a vaccine against ECF, as a DNA vaccine or as other vaccine platforms.

Background: The risk-benefit ratio of continuing with renin-angiotensin system inhibitors (RASi) after an episode of acute kidney injury (AKI) is unclear. While stopping RASi may prevent recurrent AKI or hyperkalaemia, it may deprive patients of the cardiovascular benefits of using RASi., Methods: We analysed outcomes of long-term RASi users experiencing AKI (stage 2 or 3, or clinically coded) during hospitalization in Stockholm and Sweden during 2007-18. We compared stopping RASi within 3 months after discharge with continuing RASi. The primary study outcome was the composite of all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke. Recurrent AKI was our secondary outcome and we considered hyperkalaemia as a positive control outcome. Propensity score overlap weighted Cox models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs), balancing 75 confounders. Weighted absolute risk differences (ARDs) were also determined., Results: We included 10 165 individuals, of whom 4429 stopped and 5736 continued RASi, with a median follow-up of 2.3 years. The median age was 78 years; 45% were women and median kidney function before the index episode of AKI was 55 mL/min/1.73 m 2 . After weighting, those who stopped had an increased risk [HR, 95% confidence interval (CI)] of the composite of death, MI and stroke [1.13, 1.07-1.19; ARD 3.7, 95% CI 2.6-4.8] compared with those who continued, a similar risk of recurrent AKI (0.94, 0.84-1.05) and a decreased risk of hyperkalaemia (0.79, 0.71-0.88)., Discussion: Stopping RASi use among survivors of moderate-to-severe AKI was associated with a similar risk of recurrent AKI, but higher risk of the composite of death, MI and stroke., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the ERA.)

Over the past few years, a large number of prediction models have been published, often of poor methodological quality. Seemingly objective and straightforward, prediction models provide a risk estimate for the outcome of interest, usually based on readily available clinical information. Yet, using models of substandard methodological rigour, especially without external validation, may result in incorrect risk estimates and consequently misclassification. To assess and combat bias in prediction research the prediction model risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST) was published in 2019. This risk of bias (ROB) tool includes four domains and 20 signalling questions highlighting methodological flaws, and provides guidance in assessing the applicability of the model. In this paper, the PROBAST will be discussed, along with an in-depth review of two commonly encountered pitfalls in prediction modelling that may induce bias: overfitting and composite endpoints. We illustrate the prevalence of potential bias in prediction models with a meta-review of 50 systematic reviews that used the PROBAST to appraise their included studies, thus including 1510 different studies on 2104 prediction models. All domains showed an unclear or high ROB; these results were markedly stable over time, highlighting the urgent need for attention on bias in prediction research. This article aims to do just that by providing (1) the clinician with tools to evaluate the (methodological) quality of a clinical prediction model, (2) the researcher working on a review with methods to appraise the included models, and (3) the researcher developing a model with suggestions to improve model quality., (© 2021 The Authors. Nephrology published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Asian Pacific Society of Nephrology.)

Objective: To identify the optimal estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at which to initiate dialysis in people with advanced chronic kidney disease., Design: Nationwide observational cohort study., Setting: National Swedish Renal Registry of patients referred to nephrologists., Participants: Patients had a baseline eGFR between 10 and 20 mL/min/1.73 m 2 and were included between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2016, with follow-up until 1 June 2017., Main Outcome Measures: The strict design criteria of a clinical trial were mimicked by using the cloning, censoring, and weighting method to eliminate immortal time bias, lead time bias, and survivor bias. A dynamic marginal structural model was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios and absolute risks for five year all cause mortality and major adverse cardiovascular events (composite of cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, or non-fatal stroke) for 15 dialysis initiation strategies with eGFR values between 4 and 19 mL/min/1.73 m 2 in increments of 1 mL/min/1.73 m 2 . An eGFR between 6 and 7 mL/min/1.73 m 2 (eGFR 6-7 ) was taken as the reference., Results: Among 10 290 incident patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (median age 73 years; 3739 (36%) women; median eGFR 16.8 mL/min/1.73 m 2 ), 3822 started dialysis, 4160 died, and 2446 had a major adverse cardiovascular event. A parabolic relation was observed for mortality, with the lowest risk for eGFR 15-16 . Compared with dialysis initiation at eGFR 6-7 , initiation at eGFR 15-16 was associated with a 5.1% (95% confidence interval 2.5% to 6.9%) lower absolute five year mortality risk and 2.9% (0.2% to 5.5%) lower risk of a major adverse cardiovascular event, corresponding to hazard ratios of 0.89 (95% confidence interval 0.87 to 0.92) and 0.94 (0.91 to 0.98), respectively. This 5.1% absolute risk difference corresponded to a mean postponement of death of 1.6 months over five years of follow-up. However, dialysis would need to be started four years earlier. When emulating the intended strategies of the Initiating Dialysis Early and Late (IDEAL) trial (eGFR 10-14 v eGFR 5-7 ) and the achieved eGFRs in IDEAL (eGFR 7-10 v eGFR 5-7 ), hazard ratios for all cause mortality were 0.96 (0.94 to 0.99) and 0.97 (0.94 to 1.00), respectively, which are congruent with the findings of the randomised IDEAL trial., Conclusions: Very early initiation of dialysis was associated with a modest reduction in mortality and cardiovascular events. For most patients, such a reduction may not outweigh the burden of a substantially longer period spent on dialysis., Competing Interests: Competing interests: All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form at www.icmje.org/disclosure-of-interest/ and declare: support from the Swedish Research Council, Center of Innovative Medicine Karolinska, and Stockholm City Council. JJC has consulted for Baxter and AstraZeneca and received grant support from AstraZeneca, Viforpharma, and Astellas, all outside the submitted work; CMC has received consultation, advisory board membership, or research funding from the Ontario Ministry of Health, Sanofi, Johnson and Johnson, Pfizer, Leo Pharma, Astellas, Janssen, Amgen, Boehringer-Ingelheim, and Baxter, all outside the submitted work; CW has received consultation and advisory board membership honorariums from AstraZeneca, Akebia, Bayer, Boehringer-Ingelheim, Gilead, GSK, MSD, Sanofi-Genzyme, and Tricida, outside the present work. KJJ has received grant support from the European Renal Association-European Dialysis and Transplant Association (ERA-EDTA) and speaker honorariums from Fresenius Medical Care, outside the submitted work. FJC has received grant support from the National Institute for Health Research and Kidney Research UK and honorariums from Baxter. ME has received payment for advisory boards and lectures and research funding from Astellas Pharma, Astra Zeneca, Vifor Pharma, and Fresenius, all outside the submitted work; no other relationships or activities that could appear to have influenced the submitted work., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Introduction: Extracurricular research programmes (ERPs) may contribute to reducing the current shortage in physician-scientists, but usually select students based on grades only. The question arises if students should be selected based on their motivation, regardless of their previous academic performance. Focusing on grades and lacking to take motivation into account when selecting students for ERPs might exclude an important target group when aiming to cultivate future physician-scientists. Therefore, this study compared ERP students with lower and higher previous academic performance on subsequent academic performance, ERP performance, and motivational factors., Methods: Prospective cohort study with undergraduate medical students who filled in a yearly questionnaire on motivational factors. Two student groups participating in an ERP were compared: students with first-year grade point average (GPA) ≥7 versus <7 on a 10-point grading scale. Linear and logistic regressions analyses were used to compare groups on subsequent academic performance (i.e. third-year GPA, in-time bachelor completion), ERP performance (i.e. drop-out, number of credits), and motivational factors (i.e. intrinsic motivation for research, research self-efficacy beliefs, perceptions of research, curiosity), while adjusting for gender and motivational factors at baseline., Results: The <7 group had significantly lower third-year GPA, and significantly higher odds for ERP drop-out than the ≥7 group. However, there was no significant between-group difference on in-time bachelor completion and the <7 group was not inferior to the ≥7 group in terms of intrinsic motivation for research, perceptions of research, and curiosity., Conclusions: Since intrinsic motivation for research, perceptions of research, and curiosity are prerequisites of future research involvement, it seems beneficial to focus on motivation when selecting students for ERPS, allowing students with lower current academic performance to participate in ERPs as well., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

The modest protective effects of the RV144 HIV-1 vaccine trial have prompted the further exploration of improved poxvirus vector systems that can yield better immune responses and protection. In this study, a recombinant lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) expressing HIV-1 CAP256.SU gp150 (Env) and a subtype C mosaic Gag was constructed (LSDVGC5) and compared to the equivalent recombinant modified vaccinia Ankara (MVAGC5). In vitro characterization confirmed that cells infected with recombinant LSDV produced Gag virus-like particles containing Env, and that Env expressed on the surface of the cells infected with LSDV was in a native-like conformation. This candidate HIV-1 vaccine (L) was tested in a rabbit model using different heterologous vaccination regimens, in combination with DNA (D) and MVA (M) vectors expressing the equivalent HIV-1 antigens. The four different vaccination regimens (DDMMLL, DDMLML, DDLMLM, and DDLLMM) all elicited high titers of binding and Tier 1A neutralizing antibodies (NAbs), and some regimens induced Tier 1B NAbs. Furthermore, two rabbits in the DDLMLM group developed low levels of autologous Tier 2 NAbs. The humoral immune responses elicited against HIV-1 Env by the recombinant LSDVGC5 were comparable to those induced by MVAGC5.

Attenuated vaccine strains of lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) have become increasingly popular as recombinant vaccine vectors, to target both LSDV, as well as other pathogens, including human infectious agents. Historically, these vaccine strains and recombinants were generated in primary (lamb) testis (LT) cells, Madin-Darby bovine kidney (MDBK) cells or in eggs. Growth in eggs is a laborious process, the use of primary cells has the potential to introduce pathogens and MDBK cells are known to harbor bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV). In this study, data is presented to show the growth of an attenuated LSDV strain in baby hamster kidney (BHK-21) cells. Subsequently, a recombinant LSDV vaccine was generated in BHK-21 cells. Partial growth was also observed in rabbit kidney cells (RK13), but only when the vaccinia virus host range gene K1L was expressed. Despite the limited growth, the expression of K1L was enough to serve as a positive selection marker for the generation of recombinant LSDV vaccines in RK13 cells. The simplification of generating (recombinant) LSDV vaccines shown here should increase the interest for this platform for future livestock vaccine development and, with BHK-21 cells approved for current good manufacturing practice, this can be expanded to human vaccines as well.

Rationale & Objective: Explore priorities related to outcomes and barriers of adults with chronic kidney disease (CKD) regarding person centred care and care planning., Study Design: Systematic review of qualitative studies., Search Strategy & Sources: In July 2018 six bibliographic databases, and reference lists of included articles were searched for qualitative studies that included adults with CKD stages 1-5, not on dialysis or conservative management, without a previous kidney transplantation., Analytical Approach: Three independent reviewers extracted and inductively coded data using thematic synthesis. Reporting quality was assessed using the COREQ and the review reported according to PRISMA and ENTREQ statements., Results: Forty-six studies involving 1493 participants were eligible. The period after diagnosis of CKD is characterized by feelings of uncertainty, social isolation, financial burden, resentment and fear of the unknown. Patients show interest in ways to return to normality and remain in control of their health in order to avoid further deterioration of kidney function. However, necessary information is often unavailable or incomprehensible. Although patients and healthcare professionals share the predominant interest of whether or not dialysis or transplantation is necessary, patients value many more outcomes that are often unrecognized by their healthcare professionals. We identified 4 themes with 6 subthemes that summarize these findings: 'pursuing normality and control' ('pursuing normality'; 'a search for knowledge'); 'prioritizing outcomes' ('reaching kidney failure'; 'experienced health'; 'social life'; 'work and economic productivity'); 'predicting the future'; and 'realising what matters'. Reporting quality was moderate for most included studies., Limitations: Exclusion of non-English articles., Conclusions: The realisation that patients' priorities do not match those of the healthcare professionals, in combination with the prognostic ambiguity, confirms fatalistic perceptions of not being in control when living with CKD. These insights may contribute to greater understanding of patients' perspectives and a more person-centred approach in healthcare prioritization and care planning within CKD care., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Etiological research aims to uncover causal effects, whilst prediction research aims to forecast an outcome with the best accuracy. Causal and prediction research usually require different methods, and yet their findings may get conflated when reported and interpreted. The aim of the current study is to quantify the frequency of conflation between etiological and prediction research, to discuss common underlying mistakes and provide recommendations on how to avoid these. Observational cohort studies published in January 2018 in the top-ranked journals of six distinct medical fields (Cardiology, Clinical Epidemiology, Clinical Neurology, General and Internal Medicine, Nephrology and Surgery) were included for the current scoping review. Data on conflation was extracted through signaling questions. In total, 180 studies were included. Overall, 26% (n = 46) contained conflation between etiology and prediction. The frequency of conflation varied across medical field and journal impact factor. From the causal studies 22% was conflated, mainly due to the selection of covariates based on their ability to predict without taking the causal structure into account. Within prediction studies 38% was conflated, the most frequent reason was a causal interpretation of covariates included in a prediction model. Conflation of etiology and prediction is a common methodological error in observational medical research and more frequent in prediction studies. As this may lead to biased estimations and erroneous conclusions, researchers must be careful when designing, interpreting and disseminating their research to ensure this conflation is avoided., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Theory: Medicine is facing a physician-scientist shortage. Medical training could contribute to developing physician-scientists by stimulating student research involvement, as previous studies showed this is related to research involvement in professional practice. Motivation for research and research self-efficacy beliefs are related to student research involvement. Based on social cognitive theory, success experiences in doing research may enhance research motivation and self-efficacy beliefs. However, the role and type of success experiences in promoting research self-efficacy beliefs and motivation especially early in medical training has not yet been investigated. Therefore, we examined if academic success experiences within an undergraduate course in academic and scientific skills increased research motivation and self-efficacy beliefs among medical students. Furthermore, type of success experience was taken into account by looking at the effects of academic success experiences within standard (i.e., exam) versus authentic (i.e., research report and oral presentation) assessments., Hypotheses: It was hypothesized that academic success experiences increase intrinsic motivation for research and self-efficacy beliefs. Furthermore, we hypothesized that authentic assessments influence intrinsic motivation for research and self-efficacy beliefs to a larger degree than standard assessments, as the authentic assessments mirror real-world practices of researchers., Method: First-year undergraduate medicine students followed a course in academic and scientific skills in which they conducted research individually. Their academic success experiences were operationalized as their grades on two authentic research assessments (written report and oral presentation) and one less authentic assessment (written exam). We surveyed students before the course when entering medical school (i.e., baseline measure) and 1 year after the course in their 2nd year (i.e., postmeasure). Both the baseline and postmeasure surveys measured intrinsic motivation for research, extrinsic motivation for research, and research self-efficacy beliefs. Linear regression analyses were used to examine the relationship between academic success experiences and intrinsic motivation for research, extrinsic motivation for research, and research self-efficacy beliefs on the postmeasure. We adjusted for prior research motivation and self-efficacy beliefs at baseline. Therefore, this adjusted effect can be interpreted as an increase or decrease in motivation. In addition, we adjusted for age, gender, and grade point average (GPA) of the first 4 months, as these variables were seen as possible confounders., Results: In total, 243 of 275 students participated (88.4%). Academic success experiences in writing and presenting research were related to a significant increase in intrinsic motivation for research. After adjusting for prior GPA, only the effect of presenting remained. Experiencing success in presenting enhanced research self-efficacy beliefs, also after adjusting for prior GPA. Higher grades on the exam did not affect intrinsic motivation for research or research self-efficacy significantly. Also, none of the success experiences influenced extrinsic motivation for research., Conclusions: Academic success experiences on authentic research tasks, especially presenting research, may be a good way to enhance intrinsic motivation for research and research self-efficacy beliefs. In turn, research motivation and self-efficacy beliefs promote research involvement, which is a first step in the physician-scientist pipeline. Furthermore, this study established the applicability of the social cognitive theory in a research context within the medical domain.

The correlation coefficient is a statistical measure often used in studies to show an association between variables or to look at the agreement between two methods. In this paper, we will discuss not only the basics of the correlation coefficient, such as its assumptions and how it is interpreted, but also important limitations when using the correlation coefficient, such as its assumption of a linear association and its sensitivity to the range of observations. We will also discuss why the coefficient is invalid when used to assess agreement of two methods aiming to measure a certain value, and discuss better alternatives, such as the intraclass coefficient and Bland-Altman's limits of agreement. The concepts discussed in this paper are supported with examples from literature in the field of nephrology., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA.)

Rationale & Objective: It is unknown whether initiating renin-angiotensin system (RAS) inhibitor therapy in patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) is superior to alternative antihypertensive agents such as calcium channel blockers (CCBs). We compared the risks for kidney replacement therapy (KRT), mortality, and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with advanced CKD in routine nephrology practice who were initiating either RAS inhibitor or CCB therapy., Study Design: Observational study in the Swedish Renal Registry, 2007 to 2017., Settings & Participants: 2,458 new users of RAS inhibitors and 2,345 CCB users with estimated glomerular filtration rates<30mL/min/1.73m 2 (CKD G4-G5 without KRT) who were being followed up by a nephrologist. As a positive control cohort, new users of the same drugs with CKD G3 (estimated glomerular filtration rate, 30-60mL/min/1.73m 2 ) were evaluated., Exposures: RAS inhibitor versus CCB therapy initiation., Outcome: Initiation of KRT (maintenance dialysis or transplantation), all-cause mortality, and MACE (composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke)., Analytical Approach: HRs with 95% CIs were estimated using propensity score-weighted Cox proportional hazards regression adjusting for demographic, clinical, and laboratory covariates., Results: Median age was 74 years, 38% were women, and median follow-up was 4.1 years. After propensity score weighting, there was significantly lower risk for KRT after new use of RAS inhibitors compared with new use of CCBs (adjusted HR, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.69-0.89]) but similar risks for mortality (adjusted HR, 0.97 [95% CI, 0.88-1.07]) and MACE (adjusted HR, 1.00 [95% CI, 0.88-1.15]). Results were consistent across subgroups and in as-treated analyses. The positive control cohort of patients with CKD G3 showed similar KRT risk reduction (adjusted HR, 0.67 [95% CI, 0.56-0.80]) with RAS inhibitor therapy compared with CCBs., Limitations: Potential confounding by indication., Conclusions: Our findings provide evidence from real-world clinical practice that initiation of RAS inhibitor therapy compared with CCBs may confer kidney benefits among patients with advanced CKD, with similar cardiovascular protection., (Copyright © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Initiation of renal replacement therapy often results from a combination of kidney function deterioration and symptoms related to chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression. We investigated the association between kidney function decline and symptom development in patients with advanced CKD., Methods: In the European Quality study on treatment in advanced CKD (EQUAL study), a European prospective cohort study, patients with advanced CKD aged ≥65 years and a kidney function that dropped <20 mL/min/1.73 m2 were followed for 1 year. Linear mixed-effects models were used to assess the association between kidney function decline and symptom development. The sum score for symptom number ranged from 0 to 33 and for overall symptom severity from 0 to 165, using the Dialysis Symptom Index., Results: At least one kidney function estimate with symptom number or overall symptom severity was available for 1109 and 1019 patients, respectively. The mean (95% confidence interval) annual kidney function decline was 1.70 (1.32; 2.08) mL/min/1.73 m2. The mean overall increase in symptom number and severity was 0.73 (0.28; 1.19) and 2.93 (1.34; 4.52) per year, respectively. A cross-sectional association between the level of kidney function and symptoms was lacking. Furthermore, kidney function at cohort entry was not associated with symptom development. However, each mL/min/1.73 m2 of annual kidney function decline was associated with an extra annual increase of 0.23 (0.07; 0.39) in the number of symptoms and 0.87 (0.35; 1.40) in overall symptom severity., Conclusions: A faster kidney function decline was associated with a steeper increase in both symptom number and severity. Considering the modest association, our results seem to suggest that repeated thorough assessment of symptom development during outpatient clinic visits, in addition to the monitoring of kidney function decline, is important for clinical decision-making., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA.)

Aims: The increasing prevalence of ischaemic stroke (IS) can partly be explained by the likewise growing number of patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Risk scores have been developed to identify high-risk patients, allowing for personalized anticoagulation therapy. However, predictive performance in CKD is unclear. The aim of this study is to validate six commonly used risk scores for IS in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients across the spectrum of kidney function., Methods and Results: Overall, 36 004 subjects with newly diagnosed AF from SCREAM (Stockholm CREAtinine Measurements), a healthcare utilization cohort of Stockholm residents, were included. Predictive performance of the AFI, CHADS2, Modified CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, ATRIA, and GARFIELD-AF risk scores was evaluated across three strata of kidney function: normal kidney function [estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) >60 mL/min/1.73 m2], mild CKD (eGFR 30-60 mL/min/1.73 m2), and advanced CKD (eGFR <30 mL/min/1.73 m2). Predictive performance was assessed by discrimination and calibration. During 1.9 years, 3069 (8.5%) patients suffered an IS. Discrimination was dependent on eGFR: the median c-statistic in normal eGFR was 0.75 (range 0.68-0.78), but decreased to 0.68 (0.58-0.73) and 0.68 (0.55-0.74) for mild and advanced CKD, respectively. Calibration was reasonable and largely independent of eGFR. The Modified CHADS2 score showed good performance across kidney function strata, both for discrimination [c-statistic: 0.78 (95% confidence interval 0.77-0.79), 0.73 (0.71-0.74) and 0.74 (0.69-0.79), respectively] and calibration., Conclusion: In the most clinically relevant stages of CKD, predictive performance of the majority of risk scores was poor, increasing the risk of misclassification and thus of over- or undertreatment. The Modified CHADS2 score performed good and consistently across all kidney function strata, and should therefore be preferred for risk estimation in AF patients., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.)

Objectives: Maintenance of independence is a challenge for nursing home residents whose pain is often substantial. The objective of this study was to explore the relationship between pain perception and care dependency in a population of Dutch nursing home residents., Design: Prospective cohort study., Setting and Participants: Dutch nursing home residents aged 65 or older, excluding residents with a severe cognitive impairment., Methods: The Numeric Rating Scale (NRS) was used to rate pain perception from 0 to 10 in half-point increments and the Care Dependency Scale (CDS) to measure care dependency, with scores ranging from 15 (completely care dependent) to 75 (fully independent). Both measurements were repeated after a 2-month follow-up. Multiple linear regression analysis was used to adjust for potential confounders. Missing data were dealt with by performing tenfold multiple imputation., Results: A total of 1256 residents (65% women, mean age 83 years) were included. At baseline, the median NRS pain score was 3.0 (interquartile range 0.0-6.0) and the mean CDS score was 55.9 (SD 11.5). Cross-sectionally, for 1-point increase in pain score, care dependency increased 0.65 points [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.46-0.83]. More pain at baseline was associated with slightly lower care dependency after 2 months (beta 0.20, 95% CI 0.01-0.39). Compared with residents whose pain decreased over 2 months, residents with stable pain or increased pain had a 2.27-point (95% CI 0.83-3.70) and 2.39-point (95% CI 0.87-3.90) greater increase in care dependency, respectively., Conclusions and Implications: Pain perception and care dependency are associated in a population of older nursing home residents, and stable or increased pain is associated with increased care dependency progression. The findings of this study emphasize that pain and care dependency should not be assessed nor treated independently., (Copyright © 2020 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: The incidence and prevalence of older patients with kidney failure who are dependent on dialysis is increasing. However, observational studies showed limited or no benefit of dialysis on mortality in subgroups of these patients when compared to conservative care. As the focus is shifting towards health-related quality of life (HRQoL), current evidence of effects of conservative care or dialysis on HRQoL in older patients is both limited and biased. Dialysis comes with both high treatment burden for patients and high costs for society; better identification of patients who might not benefit from dialysis could result in significant cost savings. The aim of this prospective study is to compare HRQoL, clinical outcomes, and costs between conservative care and dialysis in older patients., Methods: The DIALysis or not: Outcomes in older kidney patients with GerIatriC Assessment (DIALOGICA) study is a prospective, observational cohort study that started in February 2020. It aims to include 1500 patients from 25 Dutch and Belgian centres. Patients aged ≥70 years with an eGFR of 10-15 mL/min/1.73m 2 are enrolled in the first stage of the study. When dialysis is initiated or eGFR drops to 10 mL/min/1.73m 2 or lower, the second stage of the study commences. In both stages nephrogeriatric assessments will be performed annually, consisting of questionnaires and tests to assess most common geriatric domains, i.e. functional, psychological, somatic, and social status. The primary outcome is HRQoL, measured with the Twelve-item Short-Form Health Survey. Secondary outcomes are clinical outcomes (mortality, hospitalisation, functional status, cognitive functioning, frailty), cost-effectiveness, and decisional regret. All outcomes are (repeated) measures during the first year of the second stage. The total follow-up will be a maximum of 4 years with a minimum of 1 year in the second stage., Discussion: By generating more insight in the effects of conservative care and dialysis on HRQoL, clinical outcomes, and costs, findings of this study will help patients and physicians make a shared decision on the best individual treatment option for kidney failure., Trial Registration: The study was registered in the Netherlands Trial Register ( NL-8352 ) on 5 February 2020.

Background: Cardiovascular disease is the major cause of death in end-stage renal disease (ESRD). To develop better means to assess cardiovascular risk in these patients, we compared conventional echocardiography-derived left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) with the novel method of 2D speckle-tracking echocardiography to determine cardiac strain., Methods: Predictive performances of conventional EF and speckle-tracking echocardiography-derived global longitudinal strain (GLS) were compared using receiver-operator curve (ROC) analyses and calibration by calibration plots. We also took into account other known cardiovascular risk factors through multivariable logistic regression analysis., Results: The study comprised 171 ESRD patients (mean age 64 years, 64% male) on maintenance dialysis therapy (93% haemodialysis, 7% peritoneal dialysis) for an average period of 39 months. During 2.1 years of follow-up, 42 patients (25%) died from cardiovascular disease. ROC analysis of GLS resulted in an area under the curve of 0.700 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.603-0.797] compared with an area under the curve of EF of 0.615 (95% CI 0.514-0.716) (P = 0.059 for difference). The total absolute deviation between predicted and observed outcome frequencies obtained by calibration plots were 13.8% for EF compared with only 6.4% for GLS. Best results of ROC analysis (area under the curve = 0.759; P = 0.06), calibration and goodness-of-fit (χ 2  = 28.34, P ≤ 0.0001, R 2  = 0.25) were achieved for GLS added to a baseline model consisting of known cardiovascular risk factors in a multivariate regression analysis., Conclusions: In summary, in chronic dialysis patients, GLS is a more precise predictor of cardiovascular mortality than conventional echocardiography-derived EF., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA.)

Background: Dialysis patients have an increased bleeding risk as compared with the general population. However, there is limited information whether bleeding risks are different for patients treated with haemodialysis (HD) or peritoneal dialysis (PD). From a clinical point of view, this information could influence therapy choice. Therefore the aim of this study was to investigate the association between dialysis modality and bleeding risk., Methods: Incident dialysis patients from the Netherlands Cooperative Study on the Adequacy of Dialysis were prospectively followed for major bleeding events over 3 years. Hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for HD compared with PD using a time-dependent Cox regression analysis, with updates on dialysis modality., Results: In total, 1745 patients started dialysis, of whom 1211 (69.4%) received HD and 534 (30.6%) PD. The bleeding rate was 60.8/1000 person-years for HD patients and 34.6/1000 person-years for PD patients. The time-dependent Cox regression analysis showed that after adjustment for age, sex, primary kidney disease, prior bleeding, cardiovascular disease, antiplatelet drug use, vitamin K antagonist use, erythropoietin use, arterial hypertension, residual glomerular filtratin rate, haemoglobin and albumin levels, bleeding risk for HD patients compared with PD increased 1.5-fold (95% CI 1.0-2.2)., Conclusions: In this large prospective cohort of incident dialysis patients, HD patients had an increased bleeding risk compared with PD patients. In particular, HD patients with a history of prior bleeding had an increased bleeding risk., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA.)

Observational pharmacoepidemiological studies using routinely collected healthcare data are increasingly being used in the field of nephrology to answer questions on the effectiveness and safety of medications. This review discusses a number of biases that may arise in such studies and proposes solutions to minimize them during the design or statistical analysis phase. We first describe designs to handle confounding by indication (e.g. active comparator design) and methods to investigate the influence of unmeasured confounding, such as the E-value, the use of negative control outcomes and control cohorts. We next discuss prevalent user and immortal time biases in pharmacoepidemiology research and how these can be prevented by focussing on incident users and applying either landmarking, using a time-varying exposure, or the cloning, censoring and weighting method. Lastly, we briefly discuss the common issues with missing data and misclassification bias. When these biases are properly accounted for, pharmacoepidemiological observational studies can provide valuable information for clinical practice., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA.)

Prognostic models that aim to improve the prediction of clinical events, individualized treatment and decision-making are increasingly being developed and published. However, relatively few models are externally validated and validation by independent researchers is rare. External validation is necessary to determine a prediction model's reproducibility and generalizability to new and different patients. Various methodological considerations are important when assessing or designing an external validation study. In this article, an overview is provided of these considerations, starting with what external validation is, what types of external validation can be distinguished and why such studies are a crucial step towards the clinical implementation of accurate prediction models. Statistical analyses and interpretation of external validation results are reviewed in an intuitive manner and considerations for selecting an appropriate existing prediction model and external validation population are discussed. This study enables clinicians and researchers to gain a deeper understanding of how to interpret model validation results and how to translate these results to their own patient population., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA.)

Engaging students in research during medical school could contribute to creating an academic attitude among students, which underlies practicing evidence-based medicine in future professional practice. However, attempts to involve undergraduate students in research during medical training remain inadequate. Most medical schools educate large numbers of students at the same time, especially in early phases of medical training. Large scale education on the one hand and individually providing students with authentic research experiences on the other hand is considered not that easy to achieve. Drawing on our own experiences, existing literature and theories we propose twelve tips to design and implement a course in which authentic individual research experiences can be provided to a large group of undergraduate students.

In evidence-based medicine, clinical research questions may be addressed by different study designs. This article describes when randomized controlled trials (RCT) are needed and when observational studies are more suitable. According to the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, study designs can be divided into analytic and non-analytic (descriptive) study designs. Analytic studies aim to quantify the association of an intervention (eg, treatment) or a naturally occurring exposure with an outcome. They can be subdivided into experimental (ie, RCT) and observational studies. The RCT is the best study design to evaluate the intended effect of an intervention, because the randomization procedure breaks the link between the allocation of the intervention and patient prognosis. If the randomization of the intervention or exposure is not possible, one needs to depend on observational analytic studies, but these studies usually suffer from bias and confounding. If the study focuses on unintended effects of interventions (ie, effects of an intervention that are not intended or foreseen), observational analytic studies are the most suitable study designs, provided that there is no link between the allocation of the intervention and the unintended effect. Furthermore, non-analytic studies (ie, descriptive studies) also rely on observational study designs. In summary, RCTs and observational study designs are inherently different, and depending on the study aim, they each have their own strengths and weaknesses., (© 2020 The Authors. Nephrology published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Asian Pacific Society of Nephrology.)

Background: Acute kidney injury (AKI) can affect hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), with estimates ranging between 0.5% and 40%. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies reporting incidence, mortality and risk factors for AKI in hospitalized COVID-19 patients., Methods: We systematically searched 11 electronic databases until 29 May 2020 for studies in English reporting original data on AKI and kidney replacement therapy (KRT) in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Incidences of AKI and KRT and risk ratios for mortality associated with AKI were pooled using generalized linear mixed and random-effects models. Potential risk factors for AKI were assessed using meta-regression. Incidences were stratified by geographic location and disease severity., Results: A total of 3042 articles were identified, of which 142 studies were included, with 49 048 hospitalized COVID-19 patients including 5152 AKI events. The risk of bias of included studies was generally low. The pooled incidence of AKI was 28.6% [95% confidence interval (CI) 19.8-39.5] among hospitalized COVID-19 patients from the USA and Europe (20 studies) and 5.5% (95% CI 4.1-7.4) among patients from China (62 studies), whereas the pooled incidence of KRT was 7.7% (95% CI 5.1-11.4; 18 studies) and 2.2% (95% CI 1.5-3.3; 52 studies), respectively. Among patients admitted to the intensive care unit, the incidence of KRT was 20.6% (95% CI 15.7-26.7; 38 studies). Meta-regression analyses showed that age, male sex, cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus, hypertension and chronic kidney disease were associated with the occurrence of AKI; in itself, AKI was associated with an increased risk of mortality, with a pooled risk ratio of 4.6 (95% CI 3.3-6.5)., Conclusions: AKI and KRT are common events in hospitalized COVID-19 patients, with estimates varying across geographic locations. Additional studies are needed to better understand the underlying mechanisms and optimal treatment of AKI in these patients., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA.)

Background: Prediction tools that identify chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients at a high risk of developing kidney failure have the potential for great clinical value, but limited uptake. The aim of the current study is to systematically review all available models predicting kidney failure in CKD patients, organize empirical evidence on their validity and ultimately provide guidance in the interpretation and uptake of these tools., Methods: PubMed and EMBASE were searched for relevant articles. Titles, abstracts and full-text articles were sequentially screened for inclusion by two independent researchers. Data on study design, model development and performance were extracted. The risk of bias and clinical usefulness were assessed and combined in order to provide recommendations on which models to use., Results: Of 2183 screened studies, a total of 42 studies were included in the current review. Most studies showed high discriminatory capacity and the included predictors had large overlap. Overall, the risk of bias was high. Slightly less than half the studies (48%) presented enough detail for the use of their prediction tool in practice and few models were externally validated., Conclusions: The current systematic review may be used as a tool to select the most appropriate and robust prognostic model for various settings. Although some models showed great potential, many lacked clinical relevance due to being developed in a prevalent patient population with a wide range of disease severity. Future research efforts should focus on external validation and impact assessment in clinically relevant patient populations., (© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA.)

Background: The safety of restarting angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEI) or angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARB) after acute kidney injury (AKI) is unclear. There is concern that previous users do not restart ACEI/ARB despite ongoing indications. We sought to determine the risk of adverse events after an episode of AKI, comparing prior ACEI/ARB users who stop treatment to those who continue., Methods: We conducted two parallel cohort studies in English and Swedish primary and secondary care, 2006-2016. We used multivariable Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for hospital admission with heart failure (primary analysis), AKI, stroke, or death within 2 years after hospital discharge following a first AKI episode. We compared risks of admission between people who stopped ACEI/ARB treatment to those who were prescribed ACEI/ARB within 30 days of AKI discharge. We undertook sensitivity analyses, including propensity score-matched samples, to explore the robustness of our results., Results: In England, we included 7303 people with AKI hospitalisation following recent ACEI/ARB therapy for the primary analysis. Four thousand three (55%) were classified as stopping ACEI/ARB based on no prescription within 30 days of discharge. In Sweden, we included 1790 people, of whom 1235 (69%) stopped treatment. In England, no differences were seen in subsequent risk of heart failure (HR 1.10; 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.93-1.30), AKI (HR 0.90; 95% CI 0.77-1.05), or stroke (HR 0.99; 95% CI 0.71-1.38), but there was an increased risk of death (HR 1.27; 95% CI 1.15-1.41) in those who stopped ACEI/ARB compared to those who continued. Results were similar in Sweden: no differences were seen in risk of heart failure (HR 0.91; 95% CI 0.73-1.13) or AKI (HR 0.81; 95% CI 0.54-1.21). However, no increased risk of death was seen (HR 0.94; 95% CI 0.78-1.13) and stroke was less common in people who stopped ACEI/ARB (HR 0.56; 95% CI 0.34-0.93). Results were similar across all sensitivity analyses., Conclusions: Previous ACEI/ARB users who continued treatment after an episode of AKI did not have an increased risk of heart failure or subsequent AKI compared to those who stopped the drugs.

In this paper we study approaches for dealing with treatment when developing a clinical prediction model. Analogous to the estimand framework recently proposed by the European Medicines Agency for clinical trials, we propose a 'predictimand' framework of different questions that may be of interest when predicting risk in relation to treatment started after baseline. We provide a formal definition of the estimands matching these questions, give examples of settings in which each is useful and discuss appropriate estimators including their assumptions. We illustrate the impact of the predictimand choice in a dataset of patients with end-stage kidney disease. We argue that clearly defining the estimand is equally important in prediction research as in causal inference.

Objectives: The objective of this study was to systematically review and externally assess the predictive performance of models for ischemic stroke in incident dialysis patients., Study Design and Setting: Two reviewers systematically searched and selected ischemic stroke models. Risk of bias was assessed with the PROBAST. Predictive performance was evaluated within The Netherlands Cooperative Study on the Adequacy of Dialysis (NECOSAD), a large prospective multicenter cohort of incident dialysis patients. For discrimination, c-statistics were calculated; calibration was assessed by plotting predicted and observed probabilities for stroke, and calibration-in-the-large., Results: Seventy-seven prediction models for stroke were identified, of which 15 were validated. Risk of bias was high, with all of these models scoring high risk in one or more domains. In NECOSAD, of the 1,955 patients, 127 (6.5%) suffered an ischemic stroke during the follow-up of 2.5 years. Compared with the original studies, most models performed worse with all models showing poor calibration and discriminative abilities (c-statistics ranging from 0.49 to 0.66). The Framingham showed reasonable calibration; however, with a c-statistic of 0.57 (95% CI 0.50-0.63), the discrimination was poor., Conclusion: This external validation demonstrates the weak predictive performance of ischemic stroke models in incident dialysis patients. Instead of using these models in this fragile population, either existing models should be updated, or novel models should be developed and validated., (Copyright © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Conservative care (CC) may be a valid alternative to dialysis for certain older patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD). A model that predicts patient prognosis on both treatment pathways could be of value in shared decision-making. Therefore, the aim is to develop a prediction tool that predicts the mortality risk for the same patient for both dialysis and CC from the time of treatment decision., Methods: CKD Stage 4/5 patients aged ≥70 years, treated at a single centre in the Netherlands, were included between 2004 and 2016. Predictors were collected at treatment decision and selected based on literature and an expert panel. Outcome was 2-year mortality. Basic and extended logistic regression models were developed for both the dialysis and CC groups. These models were internally validated with bootstrapping. Model performance was assessed with discrimination and calibration., Results: In total, 366 patients were included, of which 126 chose CC. Pre-selected predictors for the basic model were age, estimated glomerular filtration rate, malignancy and cardiovascular disease. Discrimination was moderate, with optimism-corrected C-statistics ranging from 0.675 to 0.750. Calibration plots showed good calibration., Conclusions: A prediction tool that predicts 2-year mortality was developed to provide older advanced CKD patients with individualized prognosis estimates for both dialysis and CC. Future studies are needed to test whether our findings hold in other CKD populations. Following external validation, this prediction tool could be used to compare a patient's prognosis on both dialysis and CC, and help to inform treatment decision-making., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA.)

The HIV-1 envelope glycoprotein (Env) is present on the surface of the virion at a very low density compared to most other enveloped viruses. Substitution of various parts of the stalk domain of Env (gp41) with the corresponding elements from other viral glycoproteins has been shown to increase Env spike density on the cell membrane and surface of virus-like particles (VLPs). In this study, chimeric Env antigens were generated by replacing the transmembrane and cytoplasmic domains of HIV-1 Env with the corresponding regions from the influenza H5 hemagglutinin (HA) (gp140HA 2 tr) and by replacing the entire gp41 region of Env with the HA 2 subunit of HA (gp120HA 2 ). Recombinant DNA and modified vaccinia Ankara (MVA) vaccines expressing HIV-1 subtype C mosaic Gag and gp150 Env or either of the chimeras were generated. Surprisingly, no significant differences were found in the levels of expression of gp150 Env or either of the chimeras on the surface of cells or on Gag VLPs. Differences were, however, observed in the binding of different monoclonal antibodies to the HIV-1 Env. Monoclonal antibodies, which recognized a V1 / V2 quaternary epitope at the tip of the native Env trimer, bound gp150 and gp140HA 2 tr chimera but failed to bind to the gp120HA 2 chimera. Autologous Tier 2 neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) were produced by rabbits inoculated with DNA and MVA vaccines expressing the gp140HA 2 tr chimera or gp150 Env, but not those immunized with the gp120HA 2 Env. These results showed that the addition of an HA 2 stalk to HIV-1 gp120 did not improve immunogenicity, but rather that the full-length gp150 was required for optimal presentation of epitopes for the elicitation of a neutralizing antibody response to HIV-1., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest. The funders had no role in the design of the study; in the collection, analyses, or interpretation of data; in the writing of the manuscript or in the decision to publish the results.

In developing neurons, phosphoinositide 3-kinases (PI3Ks) control axon growth and branching by positively regulating PI3K/PI(3,4,5)P 3 , but how neurons are able to generate sufficient PI(3,4,5)P 3 in the presence of high levels of the antagonizing phosphatase PTEN is difficult to reconcile. We find that normal axon morphogenesis involves homeostasis of elongation and branch growth controlled by accumulation of PI(3,4,5)P 3 through PTEN inhibition. We identify a plasma membrane-localized protein-protein interaction of PTEN with plasticity-related gene 2 (PRG2). PRG2 stabilizes membrane PI(3,4,5)P 3 by inhibiting PTEN and localizes in nanoclusters along axon membranes when neurons initiate their complex branching behavior. We demonstrate that PRG2 is both sufficient and necessary to account for the ability of neurons to generate axon filopodia and branches in dependence on PI3K/PI(3,4,5)P 3 and PTEN. Our data indicate that PRG2 is part of a neuronal growth program that induces collateral branch growth in axons by conferring local inhibition of PTEN., (Copyright © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

In this work, we developed a novel strategy to synthesize porous (alumino)silicate materials using a single structure-directing agent composed of an imidazole unit with a hydrophobic tail, namely, 1,2-dimethyl-3-hexadecyl-1H-imidazol-3-ium bromide (C 16 dMImz). A wide range of products such as ordered mesoporous silicas, layered silica-alumina, and hierarchically porous mordenite zeolite were obtained by varying synthesis parameters such as temperature and aluminum concentration. By changing crystallization temperature, we could control the degree of silica condensation and tune the textural and morphological properties of the final materials. By varying the aluminum concentration in the gel, we can obtain mesoporous amorphous silica-alumina or crystalline mordenite zeolite with, respectively, weak and strong Brønsted acid sites. Obtained acidic silica-alumina materials displayed promising performance in catalytic reactions of linear paraffin hydroisomerization and Friedel-Crafts alkylation of benzene with benzyl alcohol.

Background: Quality of life (QoL) is an important outcome in chronic kidney disease (CKD). Patients feel that symptoms are an important determinant of QoL. However, this relation is unknown. The aims of this study were to investigate the impact of the number and severity of symptoms on QoL in elderly pre-dialysis patients, assessed by both the effect of symptoms and their importance relative to kidney function, and other clinical variables on QoL., Methods: The European Quality study (EQUAL study) is an ongoing European prospective follow-up study in late Stage 4/5 CKD patients aged ≥65 years. We used patients included between March 2012 and December 2015. Patients scored their symptoms with the Dialysis Symptom Index, and QoL with the research and development-36 (RAND-36) item Health Survey (RAND-36). The RAND-36 results in a physical component summary (PCS) and a mental component summary (MCS). We used linear regression to estimate the relation between symptoms and QoL at baseline and after 6 months, and to calculate the variance in QoL explained by symptoms., Results: The baseline questionnaire was filled in by 1079 (73%) patients (median age 75 years, 66% male, 98% Caucasian), and the follow up questionnaire by 627 (42%) patients. At baseline, every additional symptom changed MCS with -0.81 [95% confidence interval (CI): -0.91 to -0.71] and PCS with -0.50 (95% CI: -0.62 to -0.39). In univariable analyses, number of symptoms explained 22% of MCS variance and 11% of PCS variance, whereas estimated glomerular filtration rate only explained 1%., Conclusions: In elderly CKD Stage 4/5 patients, symptoms have a substantial impact on QoL. This indicates symptoms should have a more prominent role in clinical decision-making., (© The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.)