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Magyarország európai összehasonlításban kiemelkedő exporttöbblete és az ország ebből is következő jelentős nettó külföldi hitelnyújtása voltaképpen tükörképe a fizetési mérleg pénzügyi mérlegében regisztrált jókora hiánynak (a tőke kiáramlásának) és a magánszektor, illetve az ország mérséklődő külső eladósodásának. E folyamatok hátterében azonban a gazdaság lehangoló jövedelmi, fogyasztási és beruházási folyamatai állnak. Ezért indokolatlan egyfelől sikerként ünnepelni az exporttöbbletet, másfelől sajnálkozni a tőke kiáramlásán és az alacsony (csökkenő) beruházási rátán. Ezek a jelenségek ugyanarról szólnak különböző metszetben, s azokat még csak nem is közgazdasági teóriák, hanem egyszerű mérlegösszefüggések kapcsolják össze. Miközben nemzetközi összehasonlításban számszerűsítjük ezeket, egy félreértésre és egy mellőzött jelenségre is felhívjuk a figyelmet. A 2012-ben tapasztalt jelentős tőkekiáramlást olykor "tőkemenekítésként" értelmezik, ez azonban nem olvasható ki az adatokból. Ellenben alig fordul figyelem arra, hogy a magánszektor nettó (amortizáció nélkül számított) beruházásai példátlanul alacsony szintre, a GDP 1 százalékára csökkentek. Beruházási fordulat nélkül sem az exportnövekedés fennmaradására, sem a gazdaság élénkülésére nem lehet számítani, ám a beruházások és a lakossági fogyasztás remélhető emelkedése növekvő importtal jár, ez leapaszthatja az exporttöbbletet, ami viszont átmenetileg visszafoghatja a gazdasági növekedést. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: E65, F32, F34., Hungary over the last few years has reported large and increasing surpluses in its balance of trade, and also become a net lender to the rest of the world, as revealed by surpluses on the current and capital account of the balance of payments. These developments are mirrored by significant deficits (capital outflows) on the financial account, and by a fall in the external indebtedness of the private sector and the whole country. However, the external performance rests on poor performance by the economy in terms of income, consumption and investments - partly explained by de-leveraging in the private sector. So it makes little sense to rejoice at the trade surplus while bemoaning the capital outflows and low (and decreasing) investment rate. They reveal different sides of the same story, where the various aspects relate to each other in macroeconomic accounting identities. In aiming to quantify these relations by international comparison, the paper also points out that capital outflows should not be confused with capital flight", of which no evidence was found. It is noted that private investments and net capital consumption fell to extremely low levels. Without a turn in investment activity there is no hope of maintaining export growth and revitalizing domestic demand. However, growth in investment is likely to decrease net exports, which may impede economic growth.

This paper investigates the potential impacts of the degree of divergence in open macroeconomic policies in the context of the trilemma hypothesis. Using an index that measures the extent of policy divergence among the three trilemma policy choices—monetary independence, exchange rate stability, and financial openness—we find that emerging market economies have adopted trilemma policy combinations with the smallest degree of policy divergence in the last 15 years. We then investigate whether and to what extent the degree of open macro policy convergence affects the probability of a crisis and find that a developing or emerging market economy with a higher degree of policy divergence is more likely to experience a currency or debt crisis. We also compare the development of trilemma policies around the crisis period for the groups of Latin American crisis countries in the 1980s and the Asian crisis countries in the 1990s. We find that Latin American crisis countries tended to close their capital accounts in the aftermath of a crisis, while that is not the case for the Asian crisis countries. The Asian crisis countries tended to reduce the degree of policy divergence in the aftermath of the crisis, which possibly meant they decided to adopt open macro policies that made their economies less prone to a crisis. © 2013 Asian Development Bank and Asian Development Bank Institute.

Политические события, произошедшие в анализируемый период в связи с провозглашением независимости Крыма от Украины, проведением референдума в Крыму и подписанием на основании его результатов соглашения о включении Республики Крым и города Севастополя в состав Российской Федерации в качестве новых членов , в течение длительного времени будут оказывать определяющее влияние на экономическую ситуацию в РФ, учитывая отказ мирового сообщества признать легитимность состоявшегося воссоединения России и Крыма.

In the period under consideration, as a result of restrictions imposed by Russia on food imports from those countries that had introduced sanctions against the Russian Federation or those that have joined the anti-Russian economic policy, the domestic market was being artifi cially limited. This inevitably pushed up food prices. Now the ‘people’s deputies’ are puting forth proposals to the eff ect of imposing legislative constraints on product profi tability and price level. If such a law is actually passed, it can be expected that certain types of goods will be in defi cit, because in a situation of absence of an ‘iron curtain’ coupled with the ruble’s depreciation against foreign currencies Russian products will be exported to those markets where they can be sold at reasonable market prices; as a consequence, the Russian market will have to make do with goods unsellable in other markets. Thus, if we choose to rely on direct administrative methods – that is, follow the deputies’ suggestion and introduce price regulation – the situation can only become worse, so that soon products will have to be rationed, and the population will once again have to stand in long lines just to get food and other ‘bare necessities’.

Para crear un entorno de inflación baja y estable en México ha sido necesario generar un marco para la conducción de la política monetaria enfocado en preservar un ambiente de estabilidad de precios, junto con disciplina fiscal. En este contexto, este trabajo describe algunos logros estructurales que se han alcanzado en materia de control de la inflación en México. En adición, muestra evidencia empírica a favor de que el anclaje de las expectativas de inflación, en particular de las de mediano y largo plazo, se ha fortalecido recientemente. Se presenta un análisis en el cual se consideraron tres episodios en los que la inflación en México estuvo sujeta a diversos choques de oferta y se encuentra que, de los episodios analizados, comprendidos en el periodo 2004-2012, fue en el episodio observado en 2012 cuando las expectativas de inflación mostraron una mayor estabilidad, lo que sugiere un fortalecimiento de la credibilidad del compromiso de Banco de México con la estabilidad de precios.

It’s worth noting that administrative bodies in the period under review made active eff orts in rule-making regarding the issues within the scope of their competence. Considering the challenging situation faced by Russia due to western sanctions, there are two reasons that might cause such an activity. On the one hand, the quality of regulatory documents and administration schemes should be enhanced, because the role of public funding becomes critical, competition for resources gains momentum amid projected growth in investment capital outflows in 2014 and falling crude oil prices during 2014. On the other hand, active rule-making eff orts amid crisis may reflect exacerbation of the struggle for survival between diff erent government agencies.

There is now considerable disquiet about the appropriate monetary strategy that central banks should follow in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Several influential commentators have called for the abandonment of inflation targeting. Empirical research examining three major economies demonstrates that inflation targeting was effective prior to the crisis and a more flexible form of targeting may still be appropriate after the crisis.

A globális pénzügyi válság talán legsúlyosabb esete Görögország. A kelet-európai országok transzformációs válságát idéző visszaesés mértéke önmagában is magyarázatra szorul, ám az eset elemzése két ok miatt is túlmutathat a görög válságon. Egyrészt a hatalmas megszorításokat követő visszaesés prominens példaként szerepel a növekedés vagy megszorítás vitában. Másrészt a válság a Gazdasági és Monetáris Unió egészét sodorta veszélybe, ezért a tanulságok feltárása a jövőbeli működőképesség egyik alapja. A tanulmány fő kérdése, hogy miért volt ennyire mély a görög válság, és milyen következtetések vonhatók le a Gazdasági és Monetáris Unió számára. A probléma elemzéséhez a szerző a Kornai János által kidolgozott puha költségvetési korlát elméletét használja. A görög válság eredetének és a válságkezelés bemutatásának leírását követően a puha költségvetési korlát jelenségét először nemzeti, majd nemzetközi szinten vizsgálja, rámutatva a két szint kapcsolódási pontjaira. A szereplők motivációinak elemzése alapján a fő állítás, hogy a válságkezelés kudarca és a hatalmas visszaesés jelentős mértékben visszavezethető a költségvetési korlát megkeményítéséért folytatott küzdelem generálta bizonytalanságra, ami súlyosbította a görög gazdaságban egyébként is jelentős szerkezeti problémákat. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: E65, F33, G01, H11, P16., The main objective is to explain the severity of the financial crisis in Greece. In conducting the analysis, use is made of János Kornai s theory of soft budget constraint (SBC), whereby one economic actor has expectations of financial help from another actor, and so is not constrained by revenues when making expenditure decisions. After discussing the origins of the Greek crisis and the measures of crisis management, the author examines the presence of SBC at national and international levels. At national level it appears in the various relations between the state, banks, public and private companies, and households. At international level it is examined in the relations among the Troika, the international lenders and the Greek state. After showing the prevalence of SBC, the article turns to the motivations of actors during crisis management. It is argued that the difficulties with hardening the budget constraint at international level contributed to the severity of the Greek crisis both by creating uncertainty and by prolonging the hardening process at national level. The article ends with a discussion on the implications for the Economic and Monetary Union.

La construction progressive de l'avantage compétitif financier suisse (1914-1936) / Laurent, Alain, Auteur; Vallet, Guillaume, Auteur in Revue d'économie financière n° 113 (mars 2014). - pp. 259-273 Résumé: L'objectif de cet article est d'expliquer comment la Suisse est parvenue à construire un avantage compétitif majeur dans le secteur financier. À partir d'une perspective historique, nous montrons que la période 1914-1936 a été décisive dans cette construction, la Suisse passant d'un statut de place financière internationale de second rang à celui de lieu incontournable, avec l'émergence associée d'acteurs très puissants comme les banques. Si nous mettons en évidence une influence majeure exercée par l'industrie bancaire et financière, un tel avantage compétitif ne s'est durablement solidifié qu'à partir d'une coalition nationale autour de la préservation de la valeur du franc suisse, dans laquelle l'industrie des biens a aussi joué un rôle important. La stabilité de la monnaie nationale au cours de cette période a ainsi été décisive pour la spécialisation financière de la Suisse.

During the period under review, November-December 2013, fiscal policy guidelines were formulated in the Presi¬dent’s Address to the Federal Assembly on 12.12.2013 and his speech at the 9th Annual Press Conference on 19.12.2013. In particular, new tax schemes and allowances were announced. In our opinion, change of task priorities and reorientation of federal financial entities to support a sustainable revenue base of the state is vital amid stagnation. Develop a free market, ensure efficient performance of market players is critical in pursuing the foregoing aims. Financial regulation of the economy goes beyond taxes. The greatest challenge is counteract economic monopolies.

The paper reviews recent episodes of quantitative easing in the United States and associated internal and external transmission mechanisms. On the basis of the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) specific features of transmission for the Russian economy are revealed. The U.S. active balance monetary policy maintains oil prices at a high level, which allows Russian economy to grow at relatively high rate. However, if current economic policy in Russia unchanged, unchanged it conserves further existing model of economic growth making it unstable to external shocks and ineffective in the long-run. Thus, cancellation of the U.S. quantitative easing will cause sharp fall (severe recession) in growth rate of the Russian economy, slow recovery and only a very gradual improvement in the structure of production.

В анализируемый период в сфере налоговых инициатив следует отметить выступление Председатeля Правительства РФ Д.А. Медведева на Гайдаровском форуме, подписание Генерального соглашения между Общероссийскими объединениями профсоюзов, Общероссийскими объединениями работодателей и Правительством РФ на 2014–2016 гг. Также надо обратить внимание на проявившиеся за это время новые тенденции, такие как активизация изменений в налоговом законодательстве по вопросам налогообложения финансовых структур, операций с ценными бумагами и финансовыми инструментами срочных сделок; обострение проблем в сфере налогового администрирования доходов региональных и местных бюджетов финансовыми структурами – вплоть до предполагаемого ограничения пределов их институциональной ответственности за доходы федеральных и местных бюджетов; оживление дискуссии о дальнейшем расширении полномочий силовых структур при проведении налогового контроля.

The political events that took place in the period under review, concerning the declaration of independence of the Crimea from Ukraine, the referendum in the Crimea which gave rise to signing an agreement on the accession of the Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol to the Russian Federation as Russia’s new constituent territories, will have a long-term decisive impact on the economic situation in the Russian Federation, factoring in that the global community has withheld recognition of the reunification of Russia and the Crimea. In our opinion, it would be unreasonable to discontinue certain forms of Russia’s interaction with the leading countries despite the recent dramatically sharpened contradictions which have resulted in the cessation of the form of coordinating leading countries’ stand, such as G8. Should Russia keep developing free market relations on its territory, the coordination on the issues relating to, for example, the interception of tax evasion channels should be continued, because this meets common interests and will allow mutually accepted forms of cooperation in this area to be introduced into the international practice.

В анализируемый период особого внимания заслуживают Основные направления бюджетной политики на 2015 год и на плановый период 2016 и 2017 годов. Это первый развернутый аналитический документ по сложившейся ситуации и перспективам развития экономики России в условиях действия экономических санкций. В нем отражены следующие тенденции экономической политики РФ на ближайшую перспективу: Правительство РФ предполагает завершить финансирование большого количества ФЦП и сконцентрировать свои усилия на тех ФЦП, которые считает актуальными в условиях санкций по политической и экономической изоляции России, а также в связи с проведением Чемпионата мира по футболу 2018 г.; после многих лет стабильности в финансовой сфере намечаются явные признаки возникающих проблем, вызванных необходимостью выполнения обязательств, объявленных в майских Указах Президента РФ в условиях сокращающихся финансовых возможностей, что сопровождается перегруппировкой финансовых ресурсов общества в пользу крупнейших финансовых монополий – банков, учрежденных РФ или ЦБ РФ (в частности, ВЭБ, Сбербанк РФ); продолжает повышаться доля государственного долга по отношению к ВВП страны; меры финансовой поддержки все более напоминают эмиссию, проводимую в скрытой форме; ряд предложенных в Основных направлениях мер могут быть квалифицированы как увеличение налоговой нагрузки в скрытой или явной формах на товаропроизводителей и население, вопреки обещаниям не менять налоговые правила до 2018 г.; при этом опережающими темпами будет расти оплата труда госслужащих – естественное решение для авторитарного способа правления с целью обеспечения лояльности государственного аппарата и его управляемости в условиях экономической нестабильности1.

In the period under review, in the area of tax initiatives it is worth mentioning the speech of D.A. Medvedev, Chairman of the Government of the Russian Federation at the Gaidar Forum and signing of the General Agreement between the All-Russian Association of Trade-Unions, All-Russian Associations of Employers and the Government of the Russian Federation in the 2014–2016 period. Also, it is worth paying a?? en?? on to the following new trend which emerged in the period under review: active changes in the tax legislation as regards taxa?? on of financial entities, operation with securities and financial instruments of forward deals; aggravation by financial entities of problems in the sphere of tax administration of revenues of regional and local budgets – up to the expected limitation of the limits of their institutional responsibility for the revenues of federal and local budgets1; revival of the debates on further expansion of authorities of law enforcement agencies in carrying out of tax control.

A szakirodalom áttekintésével bemutatjuk az adósságleépítés (mérlegalkalmazkodás) jelenségét és gazdaságpolitikai következményeit. A jelenség nagy figyelmet kapott az utóbbi években, mivel magyarázatot ad arra, miért mélyebb ez a mostani (az angol nyelvű szakirodalomban nagy recessziónak nevezett) válság, mint a szokványos ciklikus visszaesések. Először azt az állítást vizsgáljuk, hogy a pénzügyi válságokat követő recessziók mélyebbek és elhúzódóbbak, mint a többi. Ezután leírjuk, hogyan alakul a pénzügyi válságokat követő adósságleépítés a háztartások, a pénzügyi és más vállalatok, valamint az állam esetében. Végül azt vitatjuk meg, hogyan korlátozzák ezek a folyamatok az állam által bevethető gazdaságpolitikai eszközöket a válságkezelés során. A válság egyik fontos tanulsága, hogy a fejlett és feltörekvő országokat ugyanazok a globális folyamatok teljesen eltérő gazdaságpolitikai kihívások elé állították. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: E32, E52, E63, E65, F32, F42., The article describes the phenomenon of deleveraging and discusses its implications for economic policy through a survey of the international literature. Deleveraging has received widespread attention in recent years as an explanation of why the present crisis is deeper than other recent cyclical downturns. The authors first present the stylised fact that recessions following financial crises are deeper and more prolonged than others. They then describe the process of deleveraging by households, financial and other corporations, and government. Finally they discuss how this process constrains the instruments available for managing economic crises. An important conclusion to be drawn from the crisis is that the same global economic processes have presented very different challenges to policy-makers in advanced and in emerging market economies.

The period of October–November 2014 was very unstable economically. The rapid slide of crude oil prices, below $80 per barrel, was followed by a nearly 40% depreciation of the ruble against world currencies. Having lifted limits on the ruble exchange rate fluctuations and imposed limits on access to the ruble liquidity, the Bank of Russia has stopped in the short run the fall of ruble exchange rate, however, according to experts, this shouldn’t be regarded as stabilization of the ruble. A package of legal acts and technical documents on taxation was adopted. Some of the decisions made are questionable and not economically seamless. In our opinion, some of the decisions are timeserving and should be reconsidered.

Анализируемый период январь-февраль 2014 г. обозначил новые тенденции в развитии налогового законодательства РФ. Прежде всего, с завершением принятия международных стандартов финансовой отчетности МСФО в РФ возникает вопрос о согласовании действующих схем определения налоговых баз по НК РФ и правил исчисления доходов и расходов по МСФО. Второй фактор, который может повлиять на перестройку налоговой системы – это изменения в ГК РФ, инициированные предыдущим Президентом РФ Д.А. Медведевым. Требует дополнительного исследования влияние изменений в ГК РФ на налоговые отношения (в связи с проектом федерального за- кона «О внесении изменений в Федеральный закон “Об обществах с ограниченной ответственностью” в части порядка распределения прибыли общества», общественное обсуждение которого завершается 21.02.2014 г.). Важным шагом в борьбе с налоговыми уклонениями станет новый стандарт обмена информацией о налогоплательщиках (Common Reporting Standard, CRS), подготовленный ОЭСР по заказу G20, – представление данных будет осуществляться не по запросам налоговых органов, а в автоматическом режиме при достижении определенных критериев (например, при достижении размера остатка на банковском счете 250 тыс. долл. и пр.).

The Main Trends of the Budget Policy for 2015 and the Planning Period of 2016 and 2017 deserves a particular emphasis in reviewing the above period. This is the fi rst detailed analytical document concerning the current situation and development prospects of the Russian economy facing economic sanctions. The following short-run trends of Russia’s economic policy are refl ected in the document: the Russian Government intends to complete funding of a great deal of federal target programs, focusing eff orts on those federal target programs which the Government considers relevant against sanctions aimed at increasing political and economic isolation of Russia, as well as due to the FIFA World Football Cup 2018 to be held in Russia; following a long period of fi nancial stability, clear signs of impending problems caused by having to honor the obligations announced the Presidential Decrees issued in May 2014 have emerged against the backdrop of weakening fi nancial potential, which results in reallocation of fi nancial resources in the society for the benefi t of the largest fi nancial monopolies, namely banks established by the Russian Federation or the Central Bank of Russia (in particular, Vnesheconombank, Sberbank or Russia); the share of state debt as percentage of GDP is growing; fi nancial support policies even more look like a hidden money issue; a few of the policies proposed in The Main Trends of the Budget Policy can be qualifi ed as hidden and express hardening of the tax burden upon manufacturers and individuals in face of promises to keep the taxation rules intact until 2018; besides, wages of civil servants will see outstripping growth rates, which is quite a natural solution for an authoritarian mode of governance, with a view to ensuring loyalty and surveillance of government employees in a volatile economic environment 1.

В рассматриваемый период времени стало очевидным, что проблемы в сфере экономики, связанные с негативными внешнеполитическими последствиями присоединения Крыма к России, дополняются проблемами дальнейшего ухудшения внутриэкономической ситуации. При официально объявленном отказе от повышения налоговой нагрузки в рассматриваемый период была продолжена практика поведению новых запретов и ограничений для граждан и юридических лиц, законодательному установлению дополнительных обязанностей по выполнению безвозмездных работ и услуг в пользу силовых структур. Полагаем, что такая практика сопряжена с дополнительной экономической нагрузкой на граждан и товаропроизводителей и может рассматриваться как установление в скрытой форме обязательных платежей в пользу силовых структур. В сфере межбюджетных отношений вместо восстановления доходной базы регионов Правительство РФ предполагает заместить их долги банкам кредитами из федерального бюджета, что сохранит полную экономическую зависимость регионов от федерального центра и позволит ему и в дальнейшем воздействовать на политическую ситуацию в регионах через управление долговой нагрузкой и установление санкций по накопленным долгам..

New trends in Russia’s fiscal legislation emerged and developed in the period under review, January thru February 2014. First of all, having adopted the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), Russia is facing the challenge of approximating the existing schemes for the determination of tax bases provided for by the Tax Code of the Russian Federation to the rules for the calculation of revenues and expenditures provided for by the IFRS. There is a second factor which may have an effect on reforming the fiscal framework, i.e. the amendments to the Civil Code of the Russian Federation which were initiated by previous Russia’s President D. A. Medvedev. The effect of the amendments to the Civil Code of the Russian Federation on fiscal relations (under a draft law “On Making Amendments to the Federal Law On Limited Liability Companies as Related to the Procedure for Distribution of Profit s” which is being under discussion un?? l 21.02.2014)2 needs extra studying. The new Common Reporting Standard (CRS) commissioned by G20 and prepared by the OECD is going to be an important measure to prevent tax evasion, i.e. instead of providing data by request of tax authorities, it will be provided automatically when certain criteria are met (for example, when the balance of an account has reached $250,000, etc.).

The paper looks at the deep and the direct causes of the crisis in the Eurozone and considers what changes are necessary. It shows that, together withfinancial aspects, the Eurozone crisis stems from the difficulties of the real economy and the incompleteness of European institutions. The former include divergent real performances, unsustainable development paths of the Member States, and growing distributive disparities. The consequences of misconceived stabilisation policies magnified the effect of the above factors. The international crisis caused a shock that has had asymmetric effects within the Eurozone due to the divergent economic performances and the different institutions of the member countries. At the same time, European institutional incompleteness deprived member countries of effective policy-making and European policy management and support, thus converting the common currency into a problematic asset. Building on thisframework, the paper critically analyses the institutional and economic reforms necessary to vitalise the process of European integration, and it stresses the urgent need to tackle the real and microeconomic causes ofthe crisis.

Результаты декомпозиции роста показателя выпуска в 2014 г. – 1-м полугодии 2015 г. свидетельствуют о перераспределении значимости факторов роста – от экстенсивных составляющих роста к отрицательному вкладу интенсивных факторов. В 1-м полугодии 2015 г. поддержание темпов роста объемов затрат труда и капитала на уровне предыдущих лет не позволило компенсировать неблагоприятные изменения ценовой конъюнктуры на мировых рынках сырья, что привело к сокращению объемов выпуска. В структуре экстенсивных факторов, как и ранее, доминирующую роль играют затраты капитала, связанные со стабильным ростом основных фондов.

During the fi rst period, starting in the mid-1920s, the Federal Reserve offi cial During the fi rst period, starting in the mid-1920s, the Federal Reserve offi cial policy was to support high-quality bank lending, but not speculative lending. This policy was to support high-quality bank lending, but not speculative lending. This goal was set aside once in 1927, in an episode that many observers then blamed for goal was set aside once in 1927, in an episode that many observers then blamed for the economic collapse that followed the fi nancial crash of 1929. The Fed was then the economic collapse that followed the fi nancial crash of 1929. The Fed was then reluctant to increase the funds available to banks through the early 1930s, even as reluctant to increase the funds available to banks through the early 1930s, even as the Great Depression ravaged the economy. The Fed's concern with the volume and the Great Depression ravaged the economy. The Fed's concern with the volume and quality of lending in the setting of monetary policy did eventually wither. However, quality of lending in the setting of monetary policy did eventually wither. However, this only seems to have happened after the publication of Friedman and Schwartz this only seems to have happened after the publication of Friedman and Schwartz (1963), a revisionist history of the Great Depression that blamed its depth on the (1963), a revisionist history of the Great Depression that blamed its depth on the Fed's inappropriate focus on "productive lending." Fed's inappropriate focus on "productive lending." In the second period, after the experience of post-World War II infl ation, the In the second period, after the experience of post-World War II infl ation, the Federal Reserve in the 1950s was highly concerned with infl ation and was willing to Federal Reserve in the 1950s was highly concerned with infl ation and was willing to raise interest rates and bring on recessions to nip even modest infl ation rates in the raise interest rates and bring on recessions to nip even modest infl ation rates in the bud. This brought withering criticism for the Federal Reserve on the grounds that bud. This brought withering criticism for the Federal Reserve on the grounds that the recessions of 1957 and 1960 had been unnecessary. By the mid-1960s, some Fed the recessions of 1957 and 1960 had been unnecessary. By the mid-1960s, some Fed offi cials seem to have developed an aversion to creating recessions as a method of offi cials seem to have developed an aversion to creating recessions as a method of

Croatia is becoming the 28th member of the European Union on July1st, 2013. Croatia has gone a long way from a socialist republic to an independentcountry recognized as one of the economic tigers of the Western Balkans in thefirst decade of the 21st century.Croatia has been hit by the global crisis, which turned out to be a huge externalshock for the region of the Western Balkans. Although it does not enter theeconomy through the direct channels, as local banks have not been engaged intoxic assets trade, but indirect channels, like the decrease of FDI, which deepensforeign trade deficits, slow credit growth or decrease of remittance which lead toeconomic disturbances during the last phase of the European integration process.Small economies, like Croatia, are exposed much more to the effects of any disturbanceson the international scene. They are dependent on foreign trade and the inflow of FDI, while their demand and inflation rate are affected by the pace of changes in big economies.The article addresses the problem of economic development in the countrywhich needs to deal with a problem of the economic crisis infection and the EUintegration process. The article studies the economic situation in Croatia which is the consequence of a recovery plan undertaken by the Croatian government.

Sweden was hit by a severe macroeconomic crisis in the early 1990s. GDP fell for three consecutive years in 1991–1993, unemployment increased by 9 percentage points, banks had to be nationalized, and public budget deficits exceeded 10 percent of GDP. The recovery was however quick. GDP growth was around four percent in 1994–1995, and budget deficits had been eliminated by 1998. Growth remained high in the subsequent decade, and the government debt ratio was reduced by almost 50 percent of GDP. This paper describes and analyzes the Swedish crisis and the policy measures implemented in response to the crisis. Policy measures include abandoning the fixed exchange rate, fiscal austerity, a new stricter fiscal framework, and several structural reforms in the 1990s. These policies were appropriate for handling the Swedish crisis, but the Swedish experiences have limited applicability for the current debt crisis, in particular because currency depreciation in combination with strong growth on export markets was a key ingredient in the Swedish recovery. Implementing fiscal austerity would have been more complicated absent this export-led growth. Moreover, the new fiscal framework has most likely contributed to strengthening public finances, but I demonstrate that budget surpluses and high GDP growth only explain around a third of the reduction in the public debt ratio after 1997.

В августе-сентябре 2013 г. продолжалась работа над проектом федерального бюджета на 2014–2016 гг. Минфину РФ удалось своевременно подготовить изменения в налоговое законодательство – это касается снижения ставок экспортной таможенной пошлины на углеводороды и повышения ставок НДПИ, поэтому проект бюджета сформирован с учетом этих изменений1. ВАС РФ продолжил работу по методологическому разъяснению применения налогового законодательства судебной системой, что позволит повысить качество судебных решений и будет способствовать минимизации ошибок при рассмотрении дел в низовых инстанциях.

In the period under review, a struggle for the budget funds of the next fiscal year took place. On April 30, 2013, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation submitted for consideration by the Government of the Russian Federation the draft Main Guidelines of the Tax Policy in 2014 and the 2015-2016 planned period. According to experts’ estimates, the Government does not intend to change the structure of the tax system in the 2014–2016 period and introduce new taxes, except for those which has already been submitted to the State Duma. However, the Ministry of Finance has found reserves for tax revenues growth, that is, raising of rates, changing of rules of calculation and payment of some taxes and specification of procedures for collection of those taxes1. In their turn, entrepreneurs insist on easing of the tax policy. On May 23, 2013, at the meeting in Voronezh – dedicated to the issues of development of the domestic entrepreneurship – President Vladimir Putin promised to consider the business community’s proposal on the tax maneuver; however he pointed out that proposals regarding tax amnesty and tax holidays at newly established small business enterprises were not developed sufficiently, nor were convincing enough.

We show that in the presence of idiosyncratic risk, the public revelation of information about risky aggregate outcomes such as policy choices can have a welfare-reducing effect. By announcing information on non-insurable aggregate risk, the policy maker distorts households’ incentives for insurance of idiosyncratic risk and increases the riskiness of the optimal self-enforceable allocation. The negative effect of distorted insurance incentives can be quantitatively important for a monetary authority that reveals changes in its short-run inflation target. We characterise parameters for which the effect dominates conventional effects that favour releasing better information.

A szerző ahhoz a vitához szól hozzá, amely Neményi Judit és Oblath Gábor kitűnő tanulmánya alapján tavaly nyáron folyt a Közgazdasági Szemlében (Neményi-Oblath [2012]) "az euró bevezetésének újragondolása" körül. Bár a cikket élénk vita követte tavaly, a téma idén sem kevésbé aktuális, és feltehetően még sokáig az is marad. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: F33, F35, E58, E65., The author contributes to the debate on rethinking the introduction of the euro initiated by the excellent study of that title by Judit Neményi and Gábor Obláth. Although the debate last year was a lively one, the subject is no less topical this year and is likely to remain so for a long time.

The paper analyses the mistakes made in the management of the fiscal policy in Spain before the crisis. The authors argue that the low size of the public expenditures, the adoption of a procyclical expansionary fiscal policy the years before the crisis, and the lack of a correct coordination between the Spanish fiscal policy and the ECB’s monetary policy, are key elements to understand the depth and length of the economic crisis and the current high fiscal imbalances in Spain. Key words: Economic crisis, Fiscal policy, Macroeconomic policy, Spain, Stabilization policy.JEL: E62, E65.

In the period under review, the most high-profile developments in the world economy were financial problems of Cyprus, visit of China’s new leaders to the Russian Federation and the issues related to development of the principles of mutual relations with China in the sphere of economic cooperation. In the domestic economy, the issues of strengthening of the revenue base of regional and local budgets remained topical along with the issue of pseudo-taxes which kept emerging beyond the limits of the Tax Code of the Russian Federation, thus increasing compulsorily expenditures of goods manufacturers.

Economy of Russia in April 2013 was more clearly demonstrating stagnation. In this regard, the lack of funds was aggravated and as a result, federal agencies are again searching for resources, which is gradually shifting from the proposals on the use of public reserves for investment purposes (the position of Ministry of Economic Development of Russia) to the search of new sources of budget replenishment (Russian Ministry of Finance position). Last month, the economic situation was discussed at many representative meetings of the government.

Over the period under consideration, Russia’s economic problems more than once became the focus of public discussion with the participation of the country’s leadership and eminent Russian and foreign experts – at the Gaidar Forum hosted by the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration and the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) at Davos. Tax issues were scrutinized in the context of a search for potential ways for overcoming economic stagnation and in view of Russia’s request for accession to the OECD.

In the period under review, a major international event was the Moscow meeting of G20 finance ministers and heads of central banks. In Russia, a few developments took place. On January 31, 2013, Premier Dmitri Medvedev approved the Main Guidelines for the RF Government’s Activities in the Period till 2018. The Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation has pre¬pared the Forecast of Long-Term Social and Economic Development of the Russian Federation in the Period till 2030. The prospect of a transfer of state reserves for placement on the domestic market and the public debt in management of a nongovernment company were largely discussed; also the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation and the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation debated the issue of reduction of the size of the National Welfare Fund and real¬location of thus available funds to the Development Fund.

We measure the response of household spending to the economic stimulus payments (ESPs) disbursed in mid-2008, using special questions added to the Consumer Expenditure Survey and variation arising from the randomized timing of when the payments were disbursed. We find that, on average, households spent about 12-30% (depending on the specification) of their stimulus payments on nondurable expenditures during the three-month period in which the payments were received. Further, there was also a substantial and significant increase in spending on durable goods, in particular vehicles, bringing the average total spending response to about 50-90% of the payments. Relative to research on the 2001 tax rebates, these spending responses are estimated with greater precision using the randomized timing variation. The estimated responses are substantial and significant for older, lower-income, and home-owning households. We find little evidence that the propensity to spend varies with the method of disbursement (paper check versus electronic transfer).

В истекший период времени стагнацию в экономике преодолеть не удалось, но одновременно следует отметить, что российская экономика проявила неплохую стрессоустойчивость. Это, по нашему мнению, может свидетельствовать о постепенной ее адаптации к рынку. Прошло проверку на эффективность «бюджетное правило» – паводок в районе реки Амур не привел к коллапсу системы бюджетных отношений, внезапное банкротство банка «Пушкино» (Московская область) не потребовало дополнительного вливания государственных средств и было локализовано за счет ресурсов Агентства по страхованию вкладов. Все это свидетельствует о том, что защитные механизмы государственных финансов в нештатной ситуации сработали надлежащим образом, не было необходимости ни увеличивать налоговую нагрузку, ни прибегать к внеплановым экстренным заимствованиям. Наиболее обсуждаемой темой в рассматриваемый период стала новая пенсионная формула и предложение об использовании в 2014 г. накопительного компонента на оплату текущих пенсионных выплат. Кроме того, в экономической прессе обсуждались некоторые налоговые инициативы, которые требуют детальной проработки..

В рассматриваемый период Правительство РФ подтвердило свою позицию, которая заключается в том, что в ближайшие несколько лет оно не будет менять действующие правила налогообложения. Вместе с тем оживился бизнес в продвижении предложений по снижению налоговой нагрузки: активно используется трибуна нового политического объединения (ОНФ) для выдвижения инициатив по налоговым каникулам, предлагаются льготы для участников финансового рынка в рамках реализации идеи Правительства РФ о создании МФЦ на территории РФ, озвучиваются инициативы по корректировке действующей схемы налогообложения в нефтяной отрасли1. По нашему мнению, в настоящий период времени необходимо соблюдать крайнюю осторожность в продвижении и реализации финансовых инициатив всякого рода, поскольку экономика РФ должна пройти неизбежную стадию адаптации к рынку, и потери бюджетных доходов также нежелательны, как и усиление налоговой нагрузки.

В рассматриваемый период развернулась борьба за средства бюджета следующего финансового года. Минфин России 30 апреля 2013 г. внес на обсуждение Правительства РФ проект Основных направлений налоговой политики на 2014 г. и на плановый период 2015 и 2016 гг. По оценкам экспертов, Правительство не намерено менять структуру налоговой системы в 2014–2016 гг. и вводить новые налоги, кроме уже внесенных в Думу. Однако резервы для увеличения налоговых поступлений Минфин России все же изыскал – это повышение ставок, изменение правил исчисления и уплаты некоторых налогов, уточнение процедур их сбора. Предприниматели, в свою очередь, настаивают на смягчении налоговой политики. На встрече по вопросам развития отечественного предпринимательства в г. Воронеже 23 мая 2013 г. Президент РФ В.Путин обещал рассмотреть предложения бизнес-сообщества по налоговому маневру, но вместе с тем отметил, что предложения по налоговой амнистии и налоговым каникулам на вновь созданные предприятия малого бизнеса являются недостаточно проработанными и недостаточно убедительными.

В рассматриваемый период времени налоговая политика отличалась крайней противоречивостью. С одной стороны, недостаток доходов бюджета в условиях стагнации российской экономики привел к переориентации на силовые методы борьбы с налоговыми уклонениями. С другой стороны, в этот же период появляются нормативные акты, направленные на выведение из-под налогообложения доходов по отдельным видам финансовой деятельности, которая является избыточно рискованной, как для осуществляющих ее лиц, так и для экономики в целом, что можно рассматривать как прямое стимулирование такого характера деятельности, причем предоставленные налоговые льготы не предусматривались Основными направлениями налоговой политики на 2013–2015 гг.

В рассматриваемом периоде 2013 г. Президент РФ В.В. Путин выступил с Бюджетным посланием, в котором изложил основные направления финансово-бюджетной политики на ближайшую перспективу, были опубликованы принятые Правительством РФ Основные направления налоговой политики на 2014–2016 гг. Оба документа продемонстрировали возросшее качество проработки экономических решений в верхних эшелонах власти. Произошел зримый отказ от предъявления под видом экономической политики стандартного набора популистских мер и применявшейся не так давно практики стимулирования экономического развития простым предоставлением налоговых льгот и исключений отдельным категориям товаропроизводителей при одновременном наращивании социально-экономических обязательств государства без привязки к источникам их финансирования

The euro area is currently going through its worst period of recession and economic stagnation since the Great Depression and World War II. The article tries to give an impression of the extraordinary degree of fiscal austerity and the devastating economic effects it has already had and must be expected to have in the near future. In addition it is argued that both the lack of economic justification and the devastating consequences of the fiscal policies currently executed should have been absolutely obvious even from a mainstream perspective. Therefore the sad state of economic policies in the euro area is that it did not even follow moderate mainstream proposals but instead seemed to rely on radical and outdated theoretical or purely ideological foundations. Germany as the most economically and politically influential member state of the euro area seems to be most infected with such radical ideas.

Russia’s tax and fiscal policy during the period under consideration was extremely contradictory. On the one hand, the shortage of budget revenues resulting from the stagnant state of the Russian economy compelled the authorities to make an emphasis on forceful methods in their fight against tax fraud and tax evasion. On the other hand, the October-November period of 2013 saw the adoption of several normative documents establishing that income from some types of financial activity, deemed excessively risky for the persons carrying it out as well as for the economy as a whole, should be exempt from taxation. This series of tax exemptions can be reasonably interpreted as a direct encouragement of such activities; moreover, it should be said that the aforementioned tax benefits are not envisaged in The Main Directions of Tax Policy for 2013–2015.

It is impressive what the Supreme Arbitration (Commercial) Court of the Russian Federation (the SAC of Russia) managed to achieve in order to adapt Russia’s law enforcement practices to a free-market environment against general uncertainty regarding the state financial policy. First of all, measures to establish relationship between the Russian legislation and international practices in the context of economic and financial regulation are worth mentioning. In the period under review, the SAC of Russia followed up the issues which are relevant for the benefit of Russia’s budget. The SAC of Russia managed to successfully develop decisions, which are universal from the international law point of view, on making Russian regulations applicable to Russian and foreign parties to legal proceedings.

In the period of 2013 under review, President Putin presented a Budget Message in which he outlined the guidelines for the state monetary policy in years to come, and the Taxation Policy Guidelines for 2014–2016 adopted by the Russian Government were published. Both documents showed higher quality of the economic decisionmaking procedure at the top levels of power and a visible refusal to present a standard set of populist measures as economic policy and apply the recent practice of promoting economic development though nothing by tax allowances and exemptions for certain categories of manufacturers amid further acceleration of state socioeconomic obligations without providing any reference to sources of financing thereof.

На фоне общей неопределенности с государственной финансовой политикой весьма впечатляет работа, которая проводится Высшим арбитражным судом РФ (ВАС РФ) по адаптации правоприменительной практики в РФ к работе в условиях свободного рынка. Прежде всего, следует отметить меры по установлению соотношений внутреннего российского законодательства и международных практик в сфере экономического и финансового регулирования. В анализируемый период времени ВАС РФ были отработаны вопросы, очень важные для защиты интересов бюджета России. ВАС РФ удалось выработать универсальные с точки зрения международного права решения о применении российских норм в отношении российских и иностранных участников судебных процессов.

In this paper the euro crisis is interpreted as the latest episode in the crisis of finance-dominated capitalism. For 11 initial Euro area countries, the major features of finance-dominated capitalism are analyzed; specifically, the increasing inequality of income distribution and the rising imbalances of current accounts. Against this background, the euro crisis and the economic policy reactions of European governments and institutions are examined. It is shown that deflationary stagnation policies have prevailed since 2010, resulting in massive real GDP losses; some improvement in the price competitiveness of the crisis countries but considerable and persistent current account imbalances; reductions in government deficit–to-GDP ratios but continuously rising trends in gross government debt–to-GDP ratios; a risk of further recession for the euro area as a whole — and the increasing threat of the euro’s ultimate collapse. Therefore, an alternative macroeconomic policy approach tackling the basic contradictions of finance-dominated capitalism and the deficiencies of European economic policy institutions and strategies — in particular, the lack of (1) an institution convincingly guaranteeing public debt and (2) a stable and sustainable financing mechanism for acceptable current account imbalances — is outlined.

Martin Feldstein interviewed Paul Volcker in Cambridge, Massachusetts, on July 10, 2013, as part of a conference at the National Bureau of Economic Research on “The First 100 Years of the Federal Reserve: The Policy Record, Lessons Learned, and Prospects for the Future.” Volcker was Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System from 1979 through 1987. Before that, he served stints as President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York from 1975 to 1979, as Deputy Undersecretary for International Affairs in the US Department of the Treasury from 1969 to 1974, as Deputy Undersecretary for Monetary Affairs in the Treasury from 1963 to 1965, and as an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York from 1952 to 1957. He has led and served on a wide array of commissions, including chairing the President's Economic Recovery Advisory Board from its inception in 2009 through 2011.

In August and September 2013, work continued on the Draft Federal Budget for 2014. As the RF Ministry of Finance had managed to ensure the timely preparation of alterations to tax legislation whereby the rates of export customs duties on hydrocarbons are to be reduced, and the rates of Mineral Extraction Tax increased, the Draft Budget was composed with those alterations being taken into consideration1. The RF Supreme Arbitration Court continued to methodologically clarify the application of tax legislation by Russia’s judicial system, which would make it possible to improve the quality of judicial decisions and to reduce the number of errors in lawsuit consideration in courts of first instance.

In early 2013, the French economy, like many other EU economies, faces tough challenges. French GDP is 9 per cent below the level it would have reached had it continued to grow at its pre-crisis trend. France has committed to cut the public deficit to 3 per cent in 2013 and 0 per cent in 2017 which would imply dramatic public spending cuts and fiscal tightening, reducing GDP growth even further. France has to choose between strengthening its specificity, its social model and its State-interventionist tradition, and imitating the best pupils of globalization in the world or in Europe by implementing liberal or social-liberal strategies. The paper deals with the French government strategy since the 2012 presidential elections and tries to assess its chances of success. In many areas – fiscal strategy, social issues, banking and industrial policies – there is a significant risk that the announced proactive strategy will be replaced by policies accepting the constraints imposed by European institutions and financial markets.