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Accelerating economic growth and poverty reduction are and continue to be the critical policy challenges in Ethiopia. The sluggish growth in agriculture coupled with lack of broad-based economic growth raises debates over the relevant direction and emphasis of development interventions in the country. In this study, we develop a social accounting matrix (SAM) for a cereal dependent village economy in rural Ethiopia and examine relevant growth options in terms of their impact on output, household income, investments in human and environmental capital in the study village. Apart from providing a quantitative analysis of a village economy, the study considers a sectoral disaggregation that takes into account the diversity of not only economic activities in terms of supply response but also heterogeneity of rural households. This study also incorporates investment in human and environmental capital in the analysis of growth linkages using a village social accounting matrix-based framework. Using constrained and unconstrained SAM multipliers, growth linkages of different sectors are explored and activities that best promote growth and household income are identified. Since the growth linkage model is based on the detailed SAM estimated for the village economy, this helps to gauge the effects of policy reforms and strategies on growth, household livelihoods, and investment in human and environmental capital. Accordingly, some simulations are performed to investigate the trade-offs and complementarities of economic and environmental policies on the village economy. Key development pathways and sectoral investment priorities are also identified that help to move the village economy in the direction of sustainable development.

Marine predator populations are sensitive to temporal variation in prey availability, but prey dynamics are often difficult to quantify. Long-term measures of offspring growth is a useful performance attribute to gauge the potential demographic direction for such predator populations, especially where other metrics (e.g., population size estimates) are lacking. Subantarctic fur seal ( Arctocephalus tropicalis ) females are central place foragers during a protracted lactation period, and their foraging success determines the growth and vitality of their offspring. Using data spanning over 2 decades, we assessed geographic and temporal variation in growth rates and weaning mass of subantarctic fur seal pups at 2 of the species’ principal populations (Gough and Marion islands) and identified environmental conditions that may, through assumed bottom-up mechanisms, affect body mass at weaning. While Marion Island pups grew at an average rate of between 0.040 and 0.067kg/day early in lactation (comparable to conspecific growth at Amsterdam Island), the mean growth rate at Gough Island (approximately 0.030kg/day) was lower than the growth rate represented by the bottom 5% of the body mass distribution at Marion Island. Notwithstanding substantial interannual variability, we found support for a negative trend in weaning mass at both populations, suggesting a rise in limiting factors that is hypothesized to relate to concurrent local population size increases. Weaning mass tended to be higher when sea surface temperatures were warmer (with a stronger positive effect at Gough Island) and during positive phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (La Niña events), with a stronger positive effect in males. Given the low weaning mass of Gough Island fur seal pups, continued population growth here seems unlikely. While density-dependent regulation appears to have increased in strength at Marion Island, terminating rapid population growth, current weaning weights remain above the physiological limits of growth in subantarctic fur seals.

The objective of this paper is to better understand how the population growth rates of rural regions are affected by their closeness to urban regions and by the economic performance of the latter. By means of a cross-sectional analysis of OECD TL3 regions, it identifies the growth spillover effects from the net effect of distance to non-rural places. Distance-based measures are used to approximate the extent to which urban and rural areas are integrated in relational terms. Results shows that positive growth spillovers exist, suggesting that spread effects overcome backwash effects and thus that rural regions benefit from the growth process taking place in urban and intermediate regions. After having controlled for these growth spillovers, the distance from urban and intermediate regions has a negative effect on the population growth rate of rural regions. Nevertheless, both the strength of this effect and the growth spillovers decay with distance. Results further suggest that proximity to urban areas has higher positive influence than to intermediate areas.

"Accelerating growth and poverty reduction, and the ultimate achievement of structural transformation, are the critical policy challenges in present day Ethiopia. This paper examines relevant growth options in terms of their impact on overall growth and poverty reduction in the country. It deploys a fixed-price semi-input-output model and a flexible-price economy-wide multi-market model for that purpose. The paper finds that agricultural growth can induce higher overall growth and faster poverty reduction than non-agricultural growth, although the latter can also have large growth effects in some cases. Among sub-sectors within agriculture, staple crops have stronger growth linkages. Decomposition of these effects also reveals that consumption linkages are much stronger than production linkages, i.e., the impact of increased consumption demand due to growth (agricultural and non-agricultural) is much larger than that of the corresponding expansion in input demand. Moreover, non-agricultural sectors have to grow in order to match growing supply of agricultural products and increasing demand for non-agricultural products. Otherwise, falling relative prices of agricultural products may dampen the realized gains in growth and poverty reduction." from Authors' Abstract

This paper shows new empirical regularities indicating that the structure of trade connections affects the trade-growth nexus. System generalized method of moments estimations indicate that key structural features associated with the composition of traded products and partners matter for growth. The results show that increases in the degree of intra-industry trade, greater insertion into the middle of global value chains, and increases in the shares of differentiated goods, skilled labor-intensive goods, and high-tech-intensive goods in traded baskets are all associated with higher income growth. An increase in the share of trade with countries at the core of the global trade network is also associated with greater growth effects. However, many of these effects are non-linear and depend on the degree of trade openness and labor force education. The results suggest that technological diffusion and learning spillovers play some role in the growth effects associated with the nature of trade connections.

This paper shows new empirical regularities indicating that the structure of trade connections affects the trade-growth nexus. System generalized method of moments estimations indicate that key structural features associated with the composition of traded products and partners matter for growth. The results show that increases in the degree of intra-industry trade, greater insertion into the middle of global value chains, and increases in the shares of differentiated goods, skilled labor-intensive goods, and high-tech-intensive goods in traded baskets are all associated with higher income growth. An increase in the share of trade with countries at the core of the global trade network is also associated with greater growth effects. However, many of these effects are non-linear and depend on the degree of trade openness and labor force education. The results suggest that technological diffusion and learning spillovers play some role in the growth effects associated with the nature of trade connections.

The main purpose of our paper is to re-examine the role of linkages in a process of rural industrialisation (RI) deriving from the field experience in two purposively selected, newly emerging areas of industrial growth in an industrially backward state. While considerable evidence on survival of manufacturing activities in rural areas, particularly an agriculture-linked process of rural industrialisation, was not very encouraging, our perserverence arose out of (a) what we perceived as a rather narrow view of intra-spatial linkages in most of the studies taken up; and (b) the possibility of its greater potential in the sub region we attempted to study viz. the state of Kerala, marked by a relatively favourable rural infrastructure. We argue that: (a) an excessive concentration on agriculture induced linkages has resulted in an underestimation of the potential of rural linkages for rural manufacturing. The fast growing service sector in rural areas and its demand for simple intermediate goods provides considerable scope for production linkages; (b) at the same time the relative importance of agricultural linkages very often tends to be swamped out by `urban' indicators of rural diversification. The former could play a dominant role in generating non-agricultural employment in relatively isolated rural areas primarily through consumption linkages; and (c) the local capital linkage or indigenous entrepreneurship has been relatively underemphasised. Stimulating local initiative can facilitate a rurally-linked process of RI. There is a real (psychic) advantage for local entrepreneurs operating in a local environment which redresses to some extent the relative place specific disadvantages of rural locations.

This paper addresses the possible impact of rising smallholder incomes on local non-agricultural development in a case study area located in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa. It determines how increased rural incomes are spent on a mix of goods and services, and debates the implications of these spending patterns for growth in rural areas through the alleviation of demand constraints. These results make it possible to identify areas of intervention necessary for sustaining growth originating from stimulus to tradable agriculture from economic reforms. This paper thus contributes to an emerging literature on the possible impact of promoting smallholder agriculture in South Africa on rural livelihoods.

This study attempts to test a hypothesis of the relationship between the tourism sector and economic growth in Malaysia. Although a large number of literatures indicate that there is strong correlation between the tourism industry and economic growth, not much is known on the dynamic inter-relationship between these variables. This study employs recently developed ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration. The estimated result based on the long run time series behaviour for the number of tourist arrival and economic growth indicator shows that these variables are not cointegrated. In the short run analysis, we found that economic growth has unidirectional Granger caused to the tourism activities. Recognition of the existence of a causal relationship between international tourism and economic growth has important implications for the development of different tourism activities and policy decisions. In order to attract tourism activities, effort must be taken to promote stability as well as sustainability of the economy of this country.

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to use the recent development in unit root tests and cointegration as applied to panel data and dynamic time series, to estimate the relationship between financial liberalization, financial development and growth.Design/methodology/approachThe paper assesses the dynamics of the relationship between financial development, financial liberalization and growth using the latest dynamic panel data framework and time series analyses comprising up to 15 Sub‐Saharan African countries with annual observations over the period of 1976‐2005. The research uses various measures of, or proxies for, financial intermediary development, including ratio of private sector credit and share of domestic credit to income.FindingsThe results obtained from a heterogenous panel investigation and time series methodology such as Granger causality, indicate a long‐run equilibrium relationship between financial development and economic growth. This is consistent with the view that financial development can act as an “engine of growth” and plays a crucial role in the process of economic development. However, there is little evidence to support the hypothesis that financial liberalization directly “leads” growth.Originality/valueGroup mean panel fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and country‐by‐country time series investigations show evidence of causality running from financial development to growth. The analysis yielded limited evidence of financial liberalization Granger‐causing economic growth. However, this is not to say that financial liberalization does not promote growth, as it could do so indirectly through fostering financial development.

The heterogeneity of southern African countries offers the region a unique opportunity to exploit agricultural potential and trade opportunities through regional integration. We analyze the implications of such opportunities using a regional general equilibrium model. We find that growth in South Africa benefits the region`s lowincome countries through increased demand for their agricultural exports, higher prices that stimulate production for domestic markets, and slower decline of prices from increased production. Agricultural productivity growth, however, is necessary for low-income countries to take advantage of South Africa`s growth. The largest benefits for low-income countries result from rising productivity of grain and livestock production.

This paper contributes to the literature by empirically examining whether the influence of public debt on economic growth differs between the short and the long run and presents different patterns across euro-area countries. To this end, we use annual data from both central and peripheral countries of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) for the 1960-2012 period and estimate a growth model augmented for public debt using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. Our findings tend to support the view that public debt always has a negative impact on the long-run performance of EMU countries, whilst its short-run effect may be positive depending on the country.

The paper examines whether a long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth exists employing panel integration and cointegration techniques for a dynamic heterogeneous panel of 15 OECD and 50 non-OECD countries over the period 1975–2000. Three different measures of financial deepening are used to capture the variety of different channels through which financial development can affect growth. Our findings support the existence of a single long-run equilibrium relation between financial deepening, economic growth and a set of control variables. Further, the evidence points to a bi-directional causality between financial deepening and growth.

The primary concern of the present study is to re-examine the relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Malaysia when savings-investment gap recorded a surplus in the late 90’s. It focuses on the transition period from shortage to surplus in savings, which has not been given attention by many previous studies, especially in Malaysia. Using time series analysis, the quarterly data consisting of FDI, GDP and trade openness from year 2000 until 2010 were carefully analyzed and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model for integration and Granger Causality tests were employed. The results revealed that all the variables used in the study are co-integrated in the long run. Furthermore, the results also show that there exists the unidirectional Granger Causality from FDI to GDP. Thus, this study concludes that Malaysia still relies on FDI to boost its economic growth even though there is a surplus in savings-investment gap. DOI: 10.5901/mjss.2015.v6n4s2p652

This paper measures economic linkages emanating from investment-led growth in eight different African countries with widely varying economic structures. To explore the importance of price effects in estimating these linkages, the paper employs two different methodologies for measuring the linkages, a fixed-price semi-input--output (SIO) model as well as a fully price-endogenous computable general equilibrium model (CGE). Regardless of the methodology used, indirect effects prove to be large. On average -- across countries and sectors -- inclusion of growth linkages nearly doubles estimated national income growth following an initial investment-led shock. Sectorally, investments in agriculture generate the largest impact on the poor. Copyright 2003, Oxford University Press.

In recent years, a considerable change has taken place in the way in which analysts of economic development have come to understand the nature of the growth process in rural areas and the relations between agricultural and nonagricultural activity as industrialization takes place. Growing awareness of the significance of nonagricultural activities in rural areas, of rural industrialization, and of the “livelihood diversification strategies” adopted by rural households has prompted this shift in understanding (Ellis 1998, 1–2). The strict agriculture/industry divide of standard dual-economy models has been broken down, and scholars have recognized the implications, both theoretical and policy-related, of the existence and development of the “pluriactive” rural household that derives its income from a variety of sources alongside agriculture. Various ways of analyzing the nature and implications of agriculture/industry interaction within rural areas, and the economic activities of rural households that underlie them, have been developed, but central to much of the work on the issue has been a model of the “growth linkages” between agricultural and nonagricultural activity. This model seeks to demonstrate how backward and forward linkages between growth in agricultural output and the expansion of manufacturing activity in rural areas operate to produce a “virtuous circle” of expanding employment opportunities, rising and often quite equally distributed rural incomes, and improving standards of living.

Only recently have major research efforts been put into investigating the potential of South African smallholder agriculture to stimulate economic growth, create employment and alleviate poverty in the black rural areas. Following on some of the pioneer work on this subject, this paper applies the concept of ‘growth linkages’ in the analysis of smallholder agriculture production in Eastern Cape. It shows that an injection of smallholder income into the rural economy will result in significant rural income growth beyond the initial injection. Exploitation of this potential would require a deliberate policy focus to aid agricultural transformation in the smallholder farming areas. Such support should be directed towards activities in which smallholder farmers have a comparative advantage, such as in citrus and livestock in Eastern Cape. Such a policy will then favor autonomous development of rural non-tradables, such as rural services, local construction materials, and perishable prepared foods.

The rapid urbanization and economic growth during new round of globalization is largely due to the flows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). In this context the objectives of this chapter is to analyze the causality and linkage among urbanization, GDP and foreign direct investment in China and India with the help of secondary data from 1979 to 2012. It focuses on determinants and pattern of FDI flow in China and India. The study observes a significant positive correlation between urbanization and flow of FDI to a particular region both in China and India. The rate of growth of FDI is significantly influenced by rate of growth of urban population at 10 per cent level of significance and by rate of growth of per capita GDP at 1 percent level of significance. The study also highlights the causality and linkage between urbanization and FDI inflow with evidences from China and India.

General equilibrium and open economy trade theory are used along with time series data on the U.S. agricultural sector to provide insights into the structure of agricultural supply, factor returns and linkages to the rest of the economy. Output expansion and factor returns are found to vary depending on relative factor intensities, which we refer to as Rybczynski and Stolper-Samuelson like effects. The effect of the rest of the economy, particularly the increase in price of services, is found to have relatively large negative impacts on agriculture. The short-run effects of prices and factor endowments on growth in agricultural supply and factor returns are dominated by the long-run effects of technological change. © 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The comparative effects on GDP and household incomes associated with various pathways of agricultural growth in Zimbabwe are investigated, based on SAM (social accounting matrix) multiplier analysis. Among the five growth paths considered, the "smallholder road to agricultural development" yields the largest increase in national income. It benefits smallholder households the most, but the income gains to the two other low-income household groups are lower compared to those arising from the four other agricultural growth paths. Foodcrop production, in which smallholders have a dominant share, shows a larger GDP multiplier than both the traditional (tobacco and cotton) and nontraditional (horticulture)export crop sectors, which are dominated by large-scale commercial farms.

The literature on JIT production suggests a causal link between work-in-process inventory and manufacturing productivity. Such a connection has been described in numerous case studies but never tested statistically. This paper uses historical data for 52 Japanese automotive companies to evaluate the inventory-productivity relationship. We find that firms increased their productivity rank during periods of substantial inventory reduction. More detailed tests suggest that inventory reductions stimulated gains in productivity: On average, each 10% reduction in inventory led to about a 1% gain in labor productivity, with a lag of about one year. Such effects were more immediate for Toyota affiliates, but undetectable for close suppliers of Nissan. These findings imply that inventory reduction served as an important driver of process improvement for many Japanese automotive companies, although some firms emphasized other methods.

The paper provides a survey of selected topics and issues in the economics of rural development, namely: concepts and empirical regularities concerning rural growth linkages, poverty, and income distribution; determinants of income source diversi?cation; and demand and supply factors constraining rural growth linkages in the Philippines. The survey draws implications for public policy and further research on the economics of agriculture and rural development.

Accelerating economic growth and poverty reduction are and continue to be the critical policy challenges in Ethiopia. The sluggish growth in agriculture coupled with lack of broad-based economic growth raises debates over the relevant direction and emphasis of development interventions in the country. In this study, we develop a social accounting matrix (SAM) for a cereal dependent village economy in rural Ethiopia and examine relevant growth options in terms of their impact on output, household income, investments in human and environmental capital in the study village. Apart from providing a quantitative analysis of a village economy, the study considers a sectoral disaggregation that takes into account the diversity of not only economic activities in terms of supply response but also heterogeneity of rural households. This study also incorporates investment in human and environmental capital in the analysis of growth linkages using a village social accounting matrix-based framework. Using constrained and unconstrained SAM multipliers, growth linkages of different sectors are explored and activities that best promote growth and household income are identified. Since the growth linkage model is based on the detailed SAM estimated for the village economy, this helps to gauge the effects of policy reforms and strategies on growth, household livelihoods, and investment in human and environmental capital. Accordingly, some simulations are performed to investigate the trade-offs and complementarities of economic and environmental policies on the village economy. Key development pathways and sectoral investment priorities are also identified that help to move the village economy in the direction of sustainable development.