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The recent Coronavirus pandemic triggered a global shift in higher education to fully embrace online platforms. With such a significant shift of academic workload and focus, we explore potential issues arising about how this shapes academic identity. Our interest is on how the adoption of a flexible pedagogy shapes an academic's sense of work and place and whether this is for some a readjustment of what is believed to be a normative view of an academic as teacher, while for others it may be a challenge to their values. Through a sampling of academics at a UK Higher Education Institution (HEI) we determine that the rapid move to remote teaching has resulted in the establishment of a transient identity that has yet to be consolidated as the sector moves from crisis-respondent transactional delivery models, to one of permanency that reflects the skills, competencies, and values of the digitally literate academic 4.0. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) occurs when an external shock causes injury to the brain. The mechanism of the disease is not completely understood yet. Studies have shown that astrocytes play various roles following brain injury. However, the exact functional role of them after TBI is still a matter of debate. Laser-induced shock waves (LIS) can create a precise controllable mechanical force that is capable of injuring or lysing cells to simulate the brain injury at the cellular level. Here, we propose a system that enables us to induce injuries in CNS cells with LIS and observe the whole process under a Quantitative phase microscope (QPM). Our system is also capable of adding another laser for optically trapping the cells to keep them at a certain distance from the center of the shockwave, as this distance is one of the important factors which determines the level of injury.

International tourism of today is considered one of the main levers of job creation, generating income and foreign currency and foreign investment. Over the past few years, international tourism has been growing steadily, but at the same time this same growth is threatened by challenges in the form of various external shocks affecting the volatility of tourism. Volatility is described, according to many authors, as an unpredictable measure of the intensity of variations. These variations are associated with unpredictable crisis situations or events commonly referred to as ‘new shocks’ (e.g. terrorism, epidemics, natural disasters, exchange rate volatility, oil price, political (in)stability, wars, and various forms of criminal activities). Such global events have a profound impact on a wide range of political, legal and social dimensions. Tourism is extremely vulnerable to various external and internal shock e. The appearance of exogenous events in destinations changes the characteristics of tourism at the destination level, affecting the tourist demand, but also on the economic situation of the country.

Annually growing public debt of Latin American countries is a source of a consistent increase in regional crisis potential. The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated political instability and deepened socio-economic imbalances in the region. The chronic dependence on debt financing increases the region’s vulnerability to external shocks and makes it much more challenging to implement public policies to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals. The purpose of the article is to reveal the increasing nature of the debt risks inherent in the Latin American countries, and to propose measures to overcome them. The authors summarize the views of leading Russian and foreign experts on the debt sustainability of the region. Based on the statistical data of international organizations, regional development institutions, as well as analytical materials published by Bloomberg, Fitch, White Case or Deloitte, the authors analyze the approaches to solving the Latin American debt problem. However, considering recent debt dynamics, new public borrowings may cause a deterioration of the regional debt sustainability in the future. This issue reinforces the uncertainty in international investment circles regarding the future solvency of the Latin American region. The situation in the Latin American countries is exacerbated by the uncertainty whether positive rates of economic growth resume in the medium term that have been lost due to volatile global commodity prices. The study examines the prospects for regional economic stabilization in Latin America and the Caribbean, including through the use of new debt financing mechanisms to meet current financial needs and minimize the risks of financial vulnerability.

The unprecedented impact of external shocks on the Russian economy threatens with a long-term recession, the avoidance of which requires the initiation of successive shifts in the technological, reproductive, sectoral, social structure, united by a single imperative of neo-industrial development. At the same time, structural changes in the economies of technologically advanced countries today are moving in line with the post-industrial transformation, the result of which is an increase in labor productivity and added value. In the Russian economy, the protracted deindustrialization requires the formation of a methodology and theory of neo-industrial development based on its own technologies and resources to counteract external shocks. The purpose of the study is to analyze approaches and theoretical provisions to the study of the possibilities of neo-industrial development of the Russian economy in the face of external shocks. Methods: literary review of Russian and foreign publications and materials, comparison and critical analysis of scientific theories. The results represent the structured content of the approach to the study of the neo-industrial transformation of the Russian economy in the context of external shocks, presented in comparison with the metho-dology of post-industrial development; the theories associated with it are criticized. The theoretical provisions of regulated structural shifts of the neo-industrial type, which are necessary to overcome de-industrialization and avoid post-shock recession, are considered. Conclusions. Theories describing the movement of the modern economy from an industrial to a post-industrial type objectively describe structural changes and technological transition in advanced countries, but do not offer forms and institutions to overcome the deindustrialization of the Russian economy due to its specifics. Nevertheless, the methodology of neo-industrial development includes approaches to the theoretical substantiation of the accelerated innovation and technological development necessary for the development of industry in the face of external shocks.

A threshold-type queue-length control strategy is proposed in the paper to investigate the influence of external shocks to a queueing system where customers are strategic and the server is vulnerable. An empty system is required to initiate service only when the number of waiting customers reaches a given threshold. External shocks occur according to a Poisson process, and once occur, the server breaks down and the customer being served is forced to leave the system. Arriving customers have to decide whether to join the system or not based on a reward-cost structure under different levels of information. The focus is on examining the equilibrium performance of the system under the interaction between the server's states and customers' joining decisions for different information levels. The equilibrium threshold in the observable queue and mixed joining probability in the unobservable queue are obtained. The optimal value of threshold $ N $ is discussed by taking strategic customer behavior and vulnerability of the server into consideration. These findings have important managerial implications on the evaluation of the shield threshold for the system with external attacks and unreliability factor, and also on optimal operation management of the system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article quantifies and analyzes the evolving impact of external shocks on Peru's macroeconomic fluctuations in 1994Q1–2019Q4. For this purpose, we use a group of models with regime-switching time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility (RS-VAR-SV), as proposed by Chan and Eisenstat (J Appl Econ 33(4):509–532, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2617). The data suggest a model with contemporaneous coefficients and constant lags and intercepts, but with regime-switching variances; and point to the existence of two regimes. The IRFs, FEVDs, and HDs show that: (i) China growth shocks have a higher impact on Peru's output growth (around 0.8%); (ii) financial shocks contract domestic output growth by 0.3% and domestic monetary policy is synchronized with Fed rate movements; (iii) external shocks explain 35% and 70% of output fluctuations under regimes 1 and 2, respectively; and (iv) China growth shocks contributed 1.0 p.p. to the 1.1-p.p. increase (around 89%) in Peru's output growth between regimes 1 and 2. Additionally, we validate these results by performing seven robustness exercises consisting in changing priors, reordering variables, changing variables, and using four different specifications for the baseline model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the relative importance of internal and external shocks for macroeconomic performance (both real and nominal sectors) of a small open economy, namely Pakistan. The study used various external sector shocks (world oil price shocks, world commodity price shocks, and world interest rate shocks) to assess the relative importance of each shock in determining macroeconomic performance of Pakistan. Moreover, the study considered stock market volatility to measure the impact of internal sector shocks on macroeconomic performance of the country. The findings portray that the impact of external sector shocks significantly differ in the real and nominal sectors. Specifically, oil-price shocks and commodity-price shocks remain the dominant source of external sector shocks for both nominal and real sectors, whereas stock market volatility appears prevailing source of fluctuations for both industrial production index and nominal money supply. The study suggests that to minimize the severity of shocks, Pakistan needs to build up a solid shock absorptive capacity, which can be obtained by improving valueadded exports capacities, strengthening the financial sector, and reducing dependence on oil imports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The level of causation and interdependencies among three commodities (cocoa, gold, and Brent crude oil), five banking sector performance indicators (Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Non-Performing Loans (NPL), Return on Equity (ROE), Return on Assets (ROA) and Core Liquid assets to total assets (CLATA)), and three general macroeconomic indicators (Inflation, Exchange rate and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty) are explored in this study. As a result, the wavelet techniques are employed to investigate time-frequency and frequency-dependent nexus in the Ghanaian context. In terms of time-frequency, a mix of negative and positive bi-causality among commodities, banking sector performance indicators, and macroeconomic indicators are found. Outcomes from the wavelet multipleprovide that these variables are highly integrated, with the exchange rate leading in the long-run. Hence, implying that exchange rate in Ghana has a high susceptibility to shocks before the other variables in the study. We advocate Government of Ghana and policy-makers should fine-tune policies that take into account the impact on other economic factors. Policies should be initiated to minimise fluctuations in the exchange rate. To limit the adverse impact of inflation and GEPU, it is required that effective and efficient country-level policies geared towards stability be initiated to resuscitate the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to substantiate the practicality of establishing a fixed exchange rate (FER) under external shocks to the Azerbaijani economy. Using regression analysis, principal component analysis, and the Granger causality test, we substantiated the inexpediency of a fixed FER for the manat (the national currency) due to: the ineffective fiscal and monetary policy of the state, weak integration into the U.S. economy, distrust of the manat in the population, and the weakness of currency hedging. Artificial retention of a FER will lead to devaluation and chronic economic recession (inflation growth, a decrease in real incomes of the population, a reduction of GDP per capita, and an increase in unemployment). It is substantiated that an increase in public confidence in the national currency should become the basis for the transition to a floating exchange rate (FER) for the manat as it will help to get the actual value of the manat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates several small open economy DSGE models and the impact of external shock spillovers on small open economies. We investigate five small economies (the UK, Australia, Canada, New Zealand and Taiwan) and find that the welfare consequences vary depending on key domestic economic variables, and the best interest-rate rule varies across models. Then we examine the performances of the four types of models, a preferred result has been found in a model which considers the country risk premium, as the best rule could be obtained as long as the selected parameters are calibrated for particular economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conditioned upon the negative impact of pandemic restrictions explained by the spread of COVID-19 disease, the global economy is declining, which has led to real risks and threats to the development of the Ukrainian agricultural sector. Identifying these risks and threats, assessing the impact of the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and the quarantine measures introduced in response to the agricultural sector is an important problem of agricultural policy that requires maximum efforts to solve it. The purpose of the article is to summarise the methodological basis for assessing the impact of restrictive quarantine measures 2020-2021 related to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic for the agricultural sector of the Ukrainian economy, to substantiate the basis for determining criteria and indicators of impact and to carry out their empirical measurement. Analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, analogy and comparison are used to generalise the theoretical and methodological aspects of the study. To diagnose the dynamics of economic indicators, economic and statistical methods are used in analytical studies. A number of techniques of abstract-logical tools made it possible to formulate intermediate and final conclusions. Methodological foundations, scientific, methodological and practical approaches to assessing the impact of restrictive quarantine measures 2020-2021 related to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic for the agricultural sector of the Ukrainian economy have been improved by substantiating the optimal research tools, identifying the most informative indicators and indicators. It is proved that from the standpoint of an integrated approach, all indicators that are a measure of the impact of the spread of COVID-19 and restrictive quarantine measures on the development of the agricultural sector should be considered in accordance with the target segments for assessing changes at the macro and micro levels. In particular: macroeconomic trends in business efficiency; entrepreneurial activity; foreign economic activity; social and labour relations; finance and investment, state support, etc. The analysis showed that the progressive development of agriculture in Ukraine during 2020 explained by quarantine restrictions demonstrated structural, economic and financial effects (results) of a downward nature. Promising areas for further research in this direction should include the development of a set of strategic measures to minimize risks for the agricultural sector of Ukraine during and after the end of the COVID-19 pandemic

Viewed in light of democratic corporatism literature, Lithuania is a deviant case. Although it lacks essential institutional prerequisites deemed important for export success and flexible adaptation to external shocks, the small Baltic country has been among the best performers in the European Union on these dimensions. Lithuania has become very internationally integrated and has managed to quickly adjust to numerous shocks, such as the Russian financial crisis of 1998–99, the Global Financial Crisis of 2008–2009, and the COVID-19 pandemic. In this article, we analyse Lithuania’s export specialization and show how particular institutional elements have supported flexible adaptation and competitiveness improvements: we cover the labour market, state’s involvement in terms of domestic compensation and public goods provision, education and skills, and the role of political legitimacy. Lithuania’s case has implications for the literature on the political economy of small states and the debate regarding the middle-income trap.

Using an original dataset and theoretical framework, this paper offers a reinterpretation of the French wine international trade after external shocks during wine globalisation based on trade policy. To maintain its external position, particularly after the arrival of phylloxera in the 1860s, French authorities promoted the development of Algerian vineyards by complex discrimination in tariffs. We highlight a negative relationship between discrimination in tariff policy and market share for wine trade partners to the detriment of Spain, Italy, and Portugal and in favour of Algeria. By combining a counterfactual analysis and two theoretical models, we consider Algeria as a new competitor in an imperfect competition. Moreover, using data of wine quality at a disaggregated level, we reveal that the control of imports by France allowed the diversification of the range of exports and maximisation of profits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine two external shocks that trigger inflationary pressures in Argentina. The first corresponds to a shock in international prices of agricultural commodities exported by this country. The second external shock affects the nominal exchange rate ($/U$S). Through the estimation of a quarterly VAR with directional quantiles model for the 2004–2019 period, we show how the pass-through from these external shocks to the inflation rate operates asymmetrically and mainly through increments in nominal wages. We estimate that an external shock in the international agricultural commodities prices exported by Argentina engenders a pass-through of 10 per cent, vis-à-vis a shock in the nominal exchange rate with a pass-through of 25 per cent. We explain these results highlighting the relevance of the class struggle as a key inflationary transmission mechanism, in line with Post-Keynesian-Structuralist conflicting claims models of inflation. These empirical results pose significant challenges for economic policy design, particularly pondering the adoption of measures that aim to decouple the potentially disruptive effects of these external shocks on inflationary pressures in Argentina. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal Public Administration & Social Management / Administração Pública e Gestão Social is the property of Administracao Publica e Gestao Social and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Politologija is the property of Vilnius University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) health crisis imposes severe pressures on nonprofit organizations, which must be resilient to respond effectively to extreme environmental tensions. We combined resource dependence theory with stakeholder theory to frame to what extent nonprofits experienced resource pressures through various stakeholder channels and the nonprofit governance responses. We empirically investigated international medical research and education nonprofits during the COVID‐19 pandemic. Our results indicate resource decreases in nearly all stakeholder channels. In response, nonprofit boards increased activity levels by mainly focusing on adapting organizational offerings and increasing support to the organization. Managerial executives also increased their activity levels, by focusing on safeguarding financial stability, planning and adapting operations to confinement measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human capital plays a vital role in poverty-stricken households' efforts to cope with external shocks. Improving the human capital of poverty-stricken households to help them address external shocks can enhance the sustainability of poverty-stricken household livelihoods and support poverty alleviation. In this study, households with dependent children and older members were selected from questionnaires covering 6,463 poverty-stricken households from 33 poverty alleviation districts and counties in Chongqing municipality, China. Multiple linear regression model and stepwise regression methods were then used to compare the effects of the number of household members supported and the number of those working on the increase in income among poverty-stricken and nonpoverty-stricken households. Finally, the correlations between policy measures, dependent household members and household labor were examined. The results show the following: (1) Policy measures can alleviate the negative impact of a household's dependent population on household income. (2) Poverty-stricken households' access to policy support is closely related to the characteristics of their human capital. The household's dependent members and laborers are effectively protected by safety net and cargo net policies. (3) Policy measures can mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on the income of nonagricultural laborers while increasing the income of agricultural laborers. The findings show that the ability of poverty-stricken households to overcome poverty and deal with external shocks can be increased by revitalizing rural industries, linking the development of rural industries with the income of poverty-stricken households, and rationally using rural labor resources., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2024 Chang, Zhang and Li.)

This study's objective is to estimate airline performance and identify the most resilient business model during periods affected by global crises, including financial crises, natural disasters, pandemics, terrorist attacks, and post-crisis periods. A balanced panel of 80 airlines, classified into full-service carriers (FSC), low-cost carriers (LCC), high perceived quality, and low perceived quality, during 2008-2021 is used in this work. The data is sourced from the ICAO Data+ and Skytrax databases. Following the recent literature on airline efficiency, we consider airlines' internal structure, which unfolds into three stages: (a) operations, (b) services, and (c) sales. Also, we employ a novel three-stage multi-parametric bias correction (MPBC) slacks-based measure (SBM) network data envelopment analysis (NDEA) approach to estimate system- and stage-specific efficiencies. It has been proven that the MPBC estimates are consistent, while the MPBC-SBM-NDEA approach addresses the limitations of conventional NDEA and SBM-NDEA models. This work highlights that airline passengers have become more price-sensitive, selecting value-for-money airline products and services after the Global Financial Crisis. Given this trend and the remainder of the study's findings, LCCs offering value-for-money products and services and operating smaller-scale networks with smaller plane capacities are less vulnerable to external shocks and are easier to rebound during post-crisis periods., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (© 2024 The Authors.)

In this paper, the extant literature on the impact of external shocks on monetary policy effectiveness with reference to non-WAEMU countries is reviewed. The importance of this literature review is to provide contemporary perspectives to scholars and policymakers on the relevance of the incidence of external shocks to the effectiveness of monetary policy with reference to non-WAEMU countries. The literature reviewed in this study shows that, on the whole, the extent and the degree to which external shocks are transmitted to the domestic economy substantially depend on a plethora of features, namely the absence of exchange rate flexibility; a strong export concentration, especially with respect to commodities; the level of global economic integration; restricted capacities of production; the absence of competitiveness in exports; over-reliance on foreign aid; foreign reserves that are not adequate and capital account openness.

This study aims to substantiate the practicality of establishing a fixed exchange rate (FER) under external shocks to the Azerbaijani economy. Using regression analysis, principal component analysis, and the Granger causality test, we substantiated the inexpediency of a fixed FER for the manat (the national currency) due to: the ineffective fiscal and monetary policy of the state, weak integration into the U.S. economy, distrust of the manat in the population, and the weakness of currency hedging. Artificial retention of a FER will lead to devaluation and chronic economic recession (inflation growth, a decrease in real incomes of the population, a reduction of GDP per capita, and an increase in unemployment). It is substantiated that an increase in public confidence in the national currency should become the basis for the transition to a floating exchange rate (FER) for the manat as it will help to get the actual value of the manat.

The economic development of many countries globally relies heavily on tourism arrivals and spending. Terrorist attacks, political unrest, and other external shocks create disruptions and imbalances that lead to tourism crises with devastating effects on a country's economy. The paper quantitatively examines the wider economic impacts and welfare effects of a continued decrease in tourism revenues caused by terrorism and political instability on the Kenyan economy. We use a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model which we calibrate to a 2003 Social Accounting Matrix for Kanya. Our results reveal that a decrease in tourism spending causes a contraction of the economy in the short-term and long-term. Tourism contraction leads to decreased output, prices and wages in urban households, whereas the rural households notice an increase in welfare in the short and medium-term and a decrease in the long-term. Diversification of the tourism product, better branding, crisis management preparations and emphasis on domestic tourism that is less affected by disruption are ways to safeguard tourism in Kenya and beyond. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research investigates the spillover effect of the US interest rate and oil prices on renewable energy utilization in Turkey. By employing a novel bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag approach on annual data from 1985 to 2016, the empirical findings and discussions represent the first contribution to the energy economics literature. The findings of this research confirm that the US interest rate has a significant spillover effect on the use of renewable energy in Turkey through the channels of income and local interest rate. Due to limited foreign exchange reserves, high foreign debt, low international reserves, and devaluation of the local currency, the Turkish economy is highly intertwined with the US economy through international investment and trade. All these factors reinforce the spillover influence of the US interest rate on energy consumption in Turkey. Moreover, this study affirms that the price of oil has a negative impact on renewable energy use through the real income channel. In order for Turkey to realize its investments in renewable energy resources more reliably and sustainably, the study suggests that policymakers should revise the current economic growth model by making it more resilient to external shocks such as the US interest rate, exchange rate, and oil prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Nova Economia is the property of Nova Economia and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Few external shocks have had as severe an impact on organisations as COVID-19. To date, research on how management can respond to such a trigger event is lacking. Due to their economic relevance, family firms, which are typically resource-constrained and rely on idiosyncratic resource allocation behaviour, are of particular interest in this regard. Based on a multicase study of German family firms and building on longitudinal insights from 112 semistructured interviews, we develop a framework explaining how an external shock such as the COVID-19 pandemic can trigger a change in family firms' motives. Linking adapted motives of family firms (i.e. survival, utilisation, and opportunism) with their resource allocation behaviour during the crisis (in terms of resource preservation, resource recombination, and social boundary resource development), we reveal how digital innovation (digital process innovation, digital product innovation, and digital business model innovation) originates as a result of a process of entrepreneurial action. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using Airbnb and hotel data from the Nordic and American markets, the purpose of this study is to investigate the relative resilience of Airbnb and the hotel industry against risks and external shocks by comparing key hotel and Airbnb industry indicators (i.e. occupancy, ADR, and RevPAR) at two points during the global pandemic of COVID-19. The study results confirmed that the key industry indicators revealed diminished relative effects in Airbnb performance indicators during the pandemic. This is explained by the Airbnb's ability to quickly adjust supply schedules in response to external shocks in the pandemic. The results suggest compared to the hotel industry, Airbnb is more resilient to potential external shocks from demand or/and supply arising from risks, including economic crises or natural disasters. The study increases the importance for the hotel industry to project and simulate their relative resilience as compared to Airbnb or similar competitors, as it may give way to enhanced strategies allowing for innovative adjustments to lower the total impact of various shocks. Furthermore, the study gives rise to the need for more specific research on resilience, allowing for the potential mitigation of risk across housing sectors during crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the effects of monetary policy shocks on—and their historical contribution to—consumption and income inequality in the United States since 1980 as measured by the Consumer Expenditure Survey. Contractionary monetary policy systematically increases inequality in labor earnings, total income, consumption and total expenditures. Furthermore, monetary policy shocks account for a non-trivial component of the historical cyclical variation in income and consumption inequality. Using detailed micro-level data on income and consumption, we document some of the different channels via which monetary policy shocks affect inequality, as well as how these channels depend on the nature of the change in monetary policy.

This paper uses the global vector autoregressive (GVAR) modelling approach to study (1) the effects of negative output shocks on Bangladesh's following trading partners on Bangladesh's economy: the United States, China, Eurozone, India and Saudi Arabia (2) positive global oil price shocks. To represent Bangladesh's macroeconomics, the GVAR model contains four key macroeconomic variables as endogenous variables. They are (1) real gross domestic product (GDP), (2) real exchange rate, (3) short-term interest rates, and (4) inflation. The specified GVAR model is estimated using quarterly data from 32 countries/regions from 1993Q4 to 2016Q4. The findings of this paper are consistent with theoretical predictions that external shocks can and will be transmitted to an open economy operating under a fixed or managed floating exchange rate system. For example, quantitatively, if the real output of Bangladesh's trading partners' falls by 1%, its output will fall by 0.39%, while the inflation rate of Bangladesh's trading partners' rises by 1%, and Bangladesh's inflation rate will increase by 1.38%. Although the negative output shock of the US economy will not significantly affect the Bangladeshi economy, the negative output shock of the Chinese economy will have a negative and significant effect on the Bangladeshi economy. The negative output shock on the US economy has caused the real exchange rate of Bangladesh's currency to appreciate and raised its short-term interest rate, although it is not statistically significant. Contrarily, a negative output shock to China or other economies devalues the real exchange rate of the Bangladeshi currency, although it is not statistically significant. However, Bangladesh's interest rates have not responded to negative output shocks from its trading partners (except the United States and Saudi Arabia), and they are not statistically significant. One policy implication of Bangladesh's inflation being overly sensitive to external inflation shocks is that Bangladesh can and should make its currency exchange rate more flexible to protect its economy from external price shocks. Unexpectedly, the external oil price shock did not seem to have a significant impact on the Bangladeshi economy. One explanation is that the impact of foreign inflation on Bangladesh's economy may have reflected the impact of oil prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

External and internal economic shocks can threaten the macroeconomic stability of a small economy. In the currency board regime, there is no role for the Central Bank as a macroeconomic stabilizer in the event of an external or internal shock. In this paper, the research is based on the analysis of eight countries with small economies with currency boards or discretionary monetary policy. The impact and connections between changes in EURIBOR, interest rates, inflation measured by the GDP deflator, money supply and GDP in the period 1997-2015 are analyzed. The paper proves that in countries with a currency board, whose regimes have a harmonized relationship with the European Central Bank and EURIBOR, interest rate shocks are less pronounced. The analysis of the links between EURIBOR, interest rates, money supply, inflation and GDP is not statistically significant in the "experiment" countries. In the control sample of countries with a variable exchange rate, the situation is heterogeneous for individual countries, but statistical significance has been determined in relation to EURIBOR and inflation. We conclude that EURIBOR may be one of the generators of exogenous shocks. In the case of Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H), there are much more significant internal transmission mechanisms that lead to macroeconomic imbalances. The growth of deposits was preceded by the growth of loans and money supply. This led to a fall in interest rates which the Central Bank of BiH (CBB&H) could not influence due to the currency board. However, the fall in interest rates did not yield the expected results. GDP has shrunk, inflation is falling, while at the same time the high unemployment rate has remained unchanged. The nominal exchange rate of the domestic currency was determined by law, but there was an appreciation of the real exchange rate, which affected the increase in the foreign trade imbalance. The result of the currency board is price stability, nominal exchange rate stability and money supply growth. Negative results are: appreciation of the real exchange rate, faster growth of imports and maintaining a very high unemployment rate. Macroeconomic developments in the BiH economy do not always have the right course that can be expected in mature economies. The achievements and applicability of standard macroeconomic policies are very limited.

The paper contains a series of complex analyses on the study of typologies of economic crises and can bring a significant contribution to the literature in determining the effects of external factors on economic growth, taking into account the distinct characteristics of the periods of decline. The work includes Hodrick-Prescott filtering techniques for characterizing business cycles in three Central and Eastern European countries and the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) technique is used to analyze the impact of external shocks on economic growth over two distinct time-horizons. External shocks such as external debt, external interest rate, external output, producer price index and real interest rate were taken into account. For each economy analyzed, the impact of the two types of economic crisis was observed, namely financial crisis and health crisis, and two time-horizons were defined for each complete economic cycle. Over these two time-horizons, the impact of external shocks on economic growth has been assessed. There has been a general decrease in the effects of shocks in the second time-horizon, in which the most severe values of economic growth are associated with the health crisis, compared to the time-horizon associated with the financial crisis. It has also been observed that, in the case of both Hungary and Romania, the responses of economic growth to external shocks are faster compared to the Czech economy. Moreover, external production is the factor that explains most of the variance in the economic growth rate in the first time-horizon, while in the second, one of the most influential indicators is the external production price index, which has been severely affected by the slowdown in the global production process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this study is present a systematical proposal that allows to understand the concept of macroeconomic vulnerability (MV), the sources that generate and the mechanisms through which it transmits its effects toward the main macroeconomic aggregates; particularly, in the developing economies. Like this, in contrast to other studies that have focused on the effects that generate the external shocks on financial markets, within of this research what is sought is deep into the caused impact by them from the perspective of the real economy. Inside this exercise, it systematized the main contributions from of Neoestructuralism, where, although there isn’t formal proposal of MV, it was found that there are a number of elements from which a framework of analysis can be configured that allows to understand the economic dynamic of this type of countries.

The study identifies the features of the USD/UAH exchange rate dynamics for the period from January 2014 to May 2020. The main purpose of the empirical analysis is to determine the current trend of the USD/UAH exchange rate (is it random or permanent), indicate the presence of seasonality in foreign exchange rate dynamics and evaluate its sensitivity to external shocks. Three hypotheses are tested using several methods of time series analysis (autocorrelation analysis, ADF, Phillips-Perron and Granger tests), including a trend-season model using a time series of one variable (ARMA), a multifactor VAR-model, impulse functions. The results show that, the movement of the hryvnia exchange rate against the US dollar is a stochastic process. Its trend has a random component and tends to change sharply over time. Moreover, exchange rate fluctuations are seasonal. It depreciates in the first and second quarters, and strengthens in the third and fourth. Some macroeconomic indicators cause a positive or negative reaction of the USD/UAH exchange rate. This indicates that today the Ukrainian foreign exchange market is relatively efficient, but stable, since its reaction to external shocks is short-term, insignificant and tends to fade out. Although the findings are controversial, they support the generally accepted view that the exchange rate formation is a multifactorial process that depends on several macroeconomic factors. However, high volatility and random walk specification indicate that it is almost impossible to predict its future value at this time. AcknowledgmentThe material was prepared within the framework of the scientific research Modeling and Forecasting the Behavior of Financial Markets as an Information Base for Ensuring Financial Stability and Security of the State, No. 0117U003936 (supervisor Alex Plastun).

Currently, the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is at a critical juncture in its development. Five years after the agreement came into force, but there are still serious economic contradictions between the key participants of the Union, as the achieved integration effects are quite ambiguous. Due to unfavourable external conditions, the positive trade effects of the implementation of the EAEU have been very limited. Only Armenia, of all member countries, has benefited most. However, an increase in medium and high value-added products led to positive changes in the commodity structure of mutual trade. For assessing the degree and nature of the impact of the Russian Federation on the economies of the EAEU member countries, we identified and analysed such factors as trade in goods and services, migrant remittances and foreign direct investment from Russia in the period 2011–2018. In general, the reduced remittances from Russia and a decline in mutual trade in goods decreased the significance of the Russian factor in the development of the members of the Union. At the same time, trade in services and direct investments are more sustainable, indicating the high potential for the development of cooperation in these areas. Influenced by changing external factors, such as volatile fuel and raw materials prices, different macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges, the EAEU is unable to ensure sustainable growth in mutual trade. We have identified a variety of aspects hindering the progressive development of the Eurasian integration amid global uncertainty. They include the priority of the national economic interests of the member countries, the remaining structural economic differences, trade barriers and restrictions, the weakening of Russia as an integration driver, as well as increasing competition from the EU and China.

Abstract Background In this paper, we try to shed light on the question whether natural disasters, such as nuclear accidents, have an impact on policy makers’ activity in passing new green energy policies. Disruptive moments like exogenous shocks reinforce society’s disapproval against polluting technologies and should open a window of opportunities to eventually initiate a change toward green energy. Methods Based on the data of 34 OECD countries, we disentangle the effect of disruptive exogenous shocks on countries’ policy activity. Starting with OLS regressions, we run several robustness checks by using a pre-sample mean approach, an ARDL technique called dynamic heterogeneous panel models (DHPM), which allows for the distinction between long- and short-run effects. Results The results corroborate the hypothesis that unexpected, disruptive events have a positive impact on the actual number of renewable energy policies. The fade-out time for shocks is about 7 years, leaving a positive long-term effect. Conclusion Exogenous events such as nuclear disasters act as “focusing event” and seem to offer policy makers a window of opportunities to initiate conducive policy measures toward a cleaner economy. Furthermore, a country’s capacity in green technologies is key to a pervasive diffusion of green technologies.

Peru, as a small and open economy, is prone to external shocks that cause fluctuations in its GDP, and given the high degree of dependence on raw materials, this could be amplified. In relation to this, the present work aims to quantify, through an autoregressive vector model with the incorporation of exogenous variables, how vulnerable the Peruvian economy is to external shocks and how an exacerbation of current trade frictions would affect economic growth.

The main objective of the study was the identification of the key channel of impact of positive and negative external shocks on the Russian banking system for the period from 2000 to 2017. In conducting the study the author used systematic and statistical methods of analysis. Throughout the named period, the banking sector of Russia was always under the influence of one or another external shock: rising and falling oil prices; favorable conditions for obtaining financing on the global capital market; the global financial and economic crisis; the European debt crisis; the tapering of the quantitative easing policy in the USA; sanctions imposed on Russia by the Western countries. In the pre-crisis period, capital inflows became the main channel for the transmission of external shock. In the course of the European debt crisis, problems with attracting external financing became a key channel for the transfer of external shock. During the global crisis and the crisis of 2014–2016 the channels of transmission of external shocks to the banking sector of Russia, despite various causes, were in many ways similar. So, the main channels were the outflow of capital, the restriction of external financing, the collapse of the ruble exchange rate, and the state of confidence in the banking sector.

Copyright of Itobiad: Journal of the Human & Social Science Researches / İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi is the property of Itobiad: Journal of the Human & Social Science Researches and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This article examines the effect of economic complexity on poverty in developing countries. It shows that greater economic complexity results in lower poverty headcount rates. This is particularly the case for countries that enjoy higher economic growth rates, lower levels of income inequality and lower degrees of economic growth volatility, including volatility due to smaller export demand and financial flows shocks. These findings have important policy implications for those developing countries that are exploring ways and means to recover from the current COVID‐19 pandemic crisis and to prepare for future crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Al-Dananeer is the property of Republic of Iraq Ministry of Higher Education & Scientific Research (MOHESR) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)