51. Influence of Regional Sea Ice Loss on the Arctic Stratospheric Polar Vortex.
- Author
-
Xu, Mian, Screen, James A., Tian, Wenshou, Zhang, Jiankai, Zhang, Chongyang, and Yu, Hao
- Subjects
SEA ice ,BAROCLINIC models ,ROSSBY waves ,SURFACE of the earth ,PHASE oscillations ,POLAR vortex - Abstract
Based on multi‐model large‐ensemble experiments provided by Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP), we investigate the influence of the projected sea ice loss in Barents‐Kara Seas (BKS) and Sea of Okhotsk (SOK) on the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex (SPV). Results show that future BKS sea ice reduction leads to a weakened SPV during November‐February by enhancing the upward‐propagating planetary wave 1, which is more pronounced during Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) easterly than westerly phase. Through weakening the upward‐propagating planetary wave 2, future SOK sea ice reduction is favorable for a strengthened SPV during January‐April. Inter‐model spread in the magnitudes of SPV responses to BKS sea ice reduction can be largely explained by the divergent planetary wave responses, but less so for SOK sea ice reduction. Results from a linearized baroclinic model further validate the importance of the planetary‐scale wave responses in explaining the differing SPV responses to sea‐ice loss over the two regions. Plain Language Summary: Arctic sea ice reduction influences the Northern Hemispheric weather and climate through modulating Arctic stratospheric polar vortex, which is a band of strong westerly encircling the pole during winter at ∼15–40 km above the Earth's surface. However, sea ice reduction over different regions could lead to different effects on the polar vortex. Here, we compare the effects of future sea ice reduction over the Barents‐Kara Seas, in the far‐north Atlantic Ocean, and the Sea of Okhotsk, in the northwest Pacific Ocean. We use carefully designed numerical simulations to estimate the effects of sea ice reduction, separately in the above‐mentioned two regions, on the polar vortex. Sea ice reduction over the Barents‐Kara Seas weakens the polar vortex, whereas sea ice reduction over Sea of Okhotsk strengthens the polar vortex. These contrasting effects are explained by opposing changes in wave activity entering the stratosphere from below. Barents‐Kara sea ice reduction leads to the strengthened upward propagating planetary waves, which break in the stratosphere and slow the polar vortex. Conversely, Okhotsk sea ice loss reduces upward waves and strengthens the polar vortex. Key Points: Barents‐Kara and Sea of Okhotsk sea ice loss weakens and strengthens polar vortex, respectively, with attendant changes in SSW frequencyPlanetary wave responses to Barents‐Kara and Okhotsk sea ice loss interfere constructively and destructively with mean flow, respectivelyPolar vortex weakening induced by Barents‐Kara sea ice loss is greater during easterly than westerly Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation phase [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF