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The size of the dust torus in Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) and their high-luminosity counterparts, quasars, can be inferred from the time delay between UV/optical accretion disk continuum variability and the response in the mid-infrared (MIR) torus emission. This dust reverberation mapping (RM) technique has been successfully applied to $\sim 70$ $z\lesssim 0.3$ AGN and quasars. Here we present first results of our dust RM program for distant quasars covered in the SDSS Stripe 82 region combining $\sim 20$-yr ground-based optical light curves with 10-yr MIR light curves from the WISE satellite. We measure a high-fidelity lag between W1-band (3.4 $\mu$m) and $g$ band for 587 quasars over $0.3\lesssim z\lesssim 2$ ($\left\sim 0.8$) and two orders of magnitude in quasar luminosity. They tightly follow (intrinsic scatter $\sim 0.17$ dex in lag) the IR lag-luminosity relation observed for $z<0.3$ AGN, revealing a remarkable size-luminosity relation for the dust torus over more than four decades in AGN luminosity, with little dependence on additional quasar properties such as Eddington ratio and variability amplitude. This study motivates further investigations in the utility of dust RM for cosmology, and strongly endorses a compelling science case for the combined 10-yr Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (optical) and 5-yr Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope 2$\mu$m light curves in a deep survey for low-redshift AGN dust RM with much lower luminosities and shorter, measurable IR lags. The compiled optical and MIR light curves for 7,384 quasars in our parent sample are made public with this work., Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ

Moving around in a 3D world, requires the visual system of a living individual to rely on three channels of image recognition, which is done through three types of retinal cones. Newton, Grasmann, Helmholz and Schr$\ddot{o}$dinger laid down the basic assumptions needed to understand colored vision. Such concepts were furthered by Resnikoff, who imagined the space of perceived colors as a 3D homogeneous space. This article is concerned with perceived colors regarded as random objects on a Resnikoff 3D homogeneous space model. Two applications to color differentiation in machine vision are illustrated for the proposed statistical methodology, applied to the Euclidean model for perceived colors., Comment: 13 pages, 5 figures

We report the identification of a low-mass AGN, DES J0218$-$0430, in a redshift $z = 0.823$ galaxy in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Supernova field. We select DES J0218$-$0430 as an AGN candidate by characterizing its long-term optical variability alone based on DES optical broad-band light curves spanning over 6 years. An archival optical spectrum from the fourth phase of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey shows both broad Mg II and broad H$\beta$ lines, confirming its nature as a broad-line AGN. Archival XMM-Newton X-ray observations suggest an intrinsic hard X-ray luminosity of $L_{{\rm 2-12\,keV}}\sim7.6\pm0.4\times10^{43}$ erg s$^{-1}$, which exceeds those of the most X-ray luminous starburst galaxies, in support of an AGN driving the optical variability. Based on the broad H$\beta$ from SDSS spectrum, we estimate a virial BH mass of $M_{\bullet}\approx10^{6.43}$-$10^{6.72}M_{\odot}$ (with the error denoting 1$\sigma$ statistical uncertainties only), consistent with the estimation from OzDES, making it the lowest mass AGN with redshift $>$ 0.4 detected in optical. We estimate the host galaxy stellar mass to be $M_{\ast}\sim10^{10.5\pm0.3}M_{\odot}$ based on modeling the multi-wavelength spectral energy distribution. DES J0218$-$0430 extends the $M_{\bullet}$-$M_{\ast}$ relation observed in luminous AGNs at $z\sim1$ to masses lower than being probed by previous work. Our work demonstrates the feasibility of using optical variability to identify low-mass AGNs at higher redshift in deeper synoptic surveys with direct implications for the upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time at Vera C. Rubin Observatory., Comment: 13 pages, 8 figures, 1 table, accepted to MNRAS

We report on small-amplitude optical variability and recent dissipation of the unusually persistent broad emission lines in the blue compact dwarf galaxy PHL 293B. The galaxy's unusual spectral features (P Cygni-like profiles with $\sim$800 km s$^{-1}$ blueshifted absorption lines) have resulted in conflicting interpretations of the nature of this source in the literature. However, analysis of new Gemini spectroscopy reveals the broad emission has begun to fade after being persistent for over a decade prior. Precise difference imaging light curves constructed with the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and the Dark Energy Survey reveal small-amplitude optical variability of $\sim$0.1 mag in the g band offset by $100\pm21$ pc from the brightest pixel of the host. The light curve is well-described by an active galactic nuclei (AGN)-like damped random walk process. However, we conclude that the origin of the optical variability and spectral features of PHL 293B is due to a long-lived stellar transient, likely a Type IIn supernova or non-terminal outburst, mimicking long-term AGN-like variability. This work highlights the challenges of discriminating between scenarios in such extreme environments, relevant to searches for AGNs in dwarf galaxies. This is the second long-lived transient discovered in a blue compact dwarf, after SDSS1133. Our result implies such long-lived stellar transients may be more common in metal-deficient galaxies. Systematic searches for low-level variability in dwarf galaxies will be possible with the upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time at Vera C. Rubin Observatory., Comment: 15 pages, 6 figures, 1 table. Accepted for publication in ApJ Letters

We perform a joint analysis of the counts and weak lensing signal of redMaPPer clusters selected from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 dataset. Our analysis uses the same shear and source photometric redshifts estimates as were used in the DES combined probes analysis. Our analysis results in surprisingly low values for $S_8 =\sigma_8(\Omega_{\rm m}/0.3)^{0.5}= 0.65\pm 0.04$, driven by a low matter density parameter, $\Omega_{\rm m}=0.179^{+0.031}_{-0.038}$, with $\sigma_8-\Omega_{\rm m}$ posteriors in $2.4\sigma$ tension with the DES Y1 3x2pt results, and in $5.6\sigma$ with the Planck CMB analysis. These results include the impact of post-unblinding changes to the analysis, which did not improve the level of consistency with other data sets compared to the results obtained at the unblinding. The fact that multiple cosmological probes (supernovae, baryon acoustic oscillations, cosmic shear, galaxy clustering and CMB anisotropies), and other galaxy cluster analyses all favor significantly higher matter densities suggests the presence of systematic errors in the data or an incomplete modeling of the relevant physics. Cross checks with X-ray and microwave data, as well as independent constraints on the observable--mass relation from SZ selected clusters, suggest that the discrepancy resides in our modeling of the weak lensing signal rather than the cluster abundance. Repeating our analysis using a higher richness threshold ($\lambda \ge 30$) significantly reduces the tension with other probes, and points to one or more richness-dependent effects not captured by our model., Comment: 35 pages, 20 figures, submitted to Physical Review D

Kernel methods have had great success in Statistics and Machine Learning. Despite their growing popularity, however, less effort has been drawn towards developing kernel based classification methods on Riemannian manifolds due to difficulty in dealing with non-Euclidean geometry. In this paper, motivated by the extrinsic framework of manifold-valued data analysis, we propose a new positive definite kernel on planar Kendall shape space $\Sigma_2^k$, called extrinsic Veronese Whitney Gaussian kernel. We show that our approach can be extended to develop Gaussian kernels on any embedded manifold. Furthermore, kernel ridge regression classifier (KRRC) is implemented to address the shape classification problem on $\Sigma_2^k$, and their promising performances are illustrated through the real data analysis.

Methods of hypotheses testing for equality of extrinsic antimeans on compact manifolds are unveiled in this paper. The two and multiple sample problem for antimeans on compact manifolds is addressed for large samples via asymptotic distributions, as well as for small samples using nonparametric bootstrap. An example of face differentiation using 3D VW antimean projective shape analysis for data extracted from digital camera images is also given.

Gender equity is one of the biggest issues facing the field of astrophysics, and there is broad interest in addressing gender disparities within astronomy. Many studies of these topics have been performed by professional astronomers who are relatively unfamiliar with research in fields such as gender studies and sociology. As a result, they adopt a normative view of gender as a binary choice of 'male' or 'female', leaving astronomers whose genders do not fit within that model out of such research entirely. Reductive frameworks of gender and an overemphasis on quantification as an indicator of gendered phenomena are harmful to people of marginalized genders, especially those who live at the intersections of multiple axes of marginalization such as race, disability, and socioeconomic status. In order for the astronomy community to best serve its marginalized members as we move into the next decade, a new paradigm must be developed. This paper aims to address the future of gender equity in astronomy by recommending better survey practices and institutional policies based on a more complex approach to gender., Comment: 15 pages, 0 figures: APC white paper submitted to the Astro2020 Decadal Survey

We present new Gemini/GMOS optical spectroscopy of 16 extreme variability quasars (EVQs) that dimmed by more than 1.5 mag in the $g$ band between the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and the Dark Energy Survey (DES) epochs (separated by a few years in the quasar rest frame). The quasar sample covers a redshift range of $0.5 < z < 2.1$. Nearly half of these EVQs brightened significantly (by more than 0.5 mag in the $g$ band) in a few years after reaching their previous faintest state, and some EVQs showed rapid (non-blazar) variations of greater than 1-2 mag on timescales of only months. Leveraging on the large dynamic range in continuum variability between the earlier SDSS and the new GMOS spectra, we explore the associated variations in the broad Mg II,$\lambda2798$ line, whose variability properties have not been well studied before. The broad Mg II flux varies in the same direction as the continuum flux, albeit with a smaller amplitude, which indicates at least some portion of Mg II is reverberating to continuum changes. However, the width (FWHM) of Mg II does not vary accordingly as continuum changes for most objects in the sample, in contrast to the case of the broad Balmer lines. Using the width of broad Mg II to estimate the black hole mass therefore introduces a luminosity-dependent bias., Comment: Submitted to MNRAS

In this paper we describe QUBIC, an experiment that will observe the polarized microwave sky with a novel approach, which combines the sensitivity of state-of-the art bolometric detectors with the systematic effects control typical of interferometers. QUBIC unique features are the so-called "self-calibration", a technique that allows us to clean the measured data from instrumental effects, and its spectral imaging power, i.e. the ability to separate the signal in various sub-bands within each frequency band. QUBIC will observe the sky in two main frequency bands: 150 GHz and 220 GHz. A technological demonstrator is currently under testing and will be deployed in Argentina during 2019, while the final instrument is expected to be installed during 2020., Comment: Proceedings of the 2018 ICNFP conference, Crete. Published by Universe arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1801.03730

Using stellar population models, we predicted that the Dark Energy Survey (DES) - due to its special combination of area (5000 deg. sq.) and depth ($i = 24.3$) - would be in the position to detect massive ($\gtrsim 10^{11}$ M$_{\odot}$) galaxies at $z \sim 4$. We confront those theoretical calculations with the first $\sim 150$ deg. sq. of DES data reaching nominal depth. From a catalogue containing $\sim 5$ million sources, $\sim26000$ were found to have observed-frame $g-r$ vs $r-i$ colours within the locus predicted for $z \sim 4$ massive galaxies. We further removed contamination by stars and artefacts, obtaining 606 galaxies lining up by the model selection box. We obtained their photometric redshifts and physical properties by fitting model templates spanning a wide range of star formation histories, reddening and redshift. Key to constrain the models is the addition, to the optical DES bands $g$, $r$, $i$, $z$, and $Y$, of near-IR $J$, $H$, $K_{s}$ data from the Vista Hemisphere Survey. We further applied several quality cuts to the fitting results, including goodness of fit and a unimodal redshift probability distribution. We finally select 233 candidates whose photometric redshift probability distribution function peaks around $z\sim4$, have high stellar masses ($\log($M$^{*}$/M$_{\odot})\sim 11.7$ for a Salpeter IMF) and ages around 0.1 Gyr, i.e. formation redshift around 5. These properties match those of the progenitors of the most massive galaxies in the local universe. This is an ideal sample for spectroscopic follow-up to select the fraction of galaxies which is truly at high redshift. These initial results and those at the survey completion, which we shall push to higher redshifts, will set unprecedented constraints on galaxy formation, evolution, and the re-ionisation epoch., Comment: 24 pages (41 with appendix), 16 figures, MNRAS in press

Transneptunian objects (TNOs) are a source of invaluable information to access the history and evolution of the outer solar system. However, observing these faint objects is a difficult task. As a consequence, important properties such as size and albedo are known for only a small fraction of them. Now, with the results from deep sky surveys and the Gaia space mission, a new exciting era is within reach as accurate predictions of stellar occultations by numerous distant small solar system bodies become available. From them, diameters with kilometer accuracies can be determined. Albedos, in turn, can be obtained from diameters and absolute magnitudes. We use observations from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) from November 2012 until February 2016, amounting to 4292847 CCD frames. We searched them for all known small solar system bodies and recovered a total of 202 TNOs and Centaurs, 63 of which have been discovered by the DES collaboration until the date of this writing. Their positions were determined using the Gaia Data Release 2 as reference and their orbits were refined. Stellar occultations were then predicted using these refined orbits plus stellar positions from Gaia. These predictions are maintained, and updated, in a dedicated web service. The techniques developed here are also part of an ambitious preparation to use the data from the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST), that expects to obtain accurate positions and multifilter photometry for tens of thousands of TNOs., Comment: 25 pages, submitted to Astronomical Journal

We use the 2014 market history of two high-returning biotechnology exchange-traded funds to illustrate how ex post mean-variance analysis should not be done. Unfortunately, the way it should not be done is the way it generally is done -- to our knowledge., Comment: 22 pages

Accurate forecasting of the properties of coronal mass ejections as they approach Earth is now recognized as an important strategic objective for both NOAA and NASA. The time of arrival of such events is a key parameter, one that had been anticipated to be relatively straightforward to constrain. In this study, we analyze forecasts submitted to the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center over the last six years to answer the following questions: (1) How well do these models forecast the arrival time of CME-driven shocks? (2) What are the uncertainties associated with these forecasts? (3) Which model(s) perform best? (4) Have the models become more accurate during the past six years? We analyze all forecasts made by 32 models from 2013 through mid 2018, and additionally focus on 28 events all of which were forecasted by six models. We find that the models are generally able to predict CME-shock arrival times -- in an average sense -- to within 10 hours, but with standard deviations often exceeding 20 hours. The best performers, on the other hand, maintained a mean error (bias) of -1 hour, a mean absolute error of 13 hours, and a precision (s.d.) of 15 hours. Finally, there is no evidence that the forecasts have become more accurate during this interval. We discuss the intrinsic simplifications of the various models analyzed, the limitations of this investigation, and suggest possible paths to improve these forecasts in the future.

In this paper after a brief revision of VW-means, which are extrinsic means on real and complex projective spaces, relative to the Veronese-Whitney embeddings, we give two examples of sample VW means computations on planar Kendall shape spaces. Here we derive large sample and pivotal nonparametric bootstrap confidence regions for VW-antimeans, using VW-anti-covariance matrices, and their sample counterparts, Comment: 19 pages, 12 figures

Statistical analysis on object data presents many challenges. Basic summaries such as means and variances are difficult to compute. We apply ideas from topology to study object data. We present a framework for using persistence landscapes to vectorize object data and perform statistical analysis. We apply to this pipeline to some biological images that were previously shown to be challenging to study using shape theory. Surprisingly, the most persistent features are shown to be "topological noise" and the statistical analysis depends on the less persistent features which we refer to as the "geometric signal". We also describe the first steps to a new approach to using topology for object data analysis, which applies topology to distributions on object spaces., Comment: 16 pages, 12 figures

This paper describes the results of formally evaluating the MCV (Markov concurrent vision) image labeling algorithm which is a (semi-) hierarchical algorithm commencing with a partition made up of single pixel regions and merging regions or subsets of regions using a Markov random field (MRF) image model. It is an example of a general approach to computer vision called concurrent vision in which the operations of image segmentation and image classification are carried out concurrently. While many image labeling algorithms output a single partition, or segmentation, the MCV algorithm outputs a sequence of partitions and this more elaborate structure may provide information that is valuable for higher level vision systems. With certain types of MRF the component of the system for image evaluation can be implemented as a hardwired feed forward neural network. While being applicable to images (i.e. 2D signals), the algorithm is equally applicable to 1D signals (e.g. speech) or 3D signals (e.g. video sequences) (though its performance in such domains remains to be tested). The algorithm is assessed using subjective and objective criteria with very good results., Comment: replacement provides formal evaluation of MCV algorithm in published form

We present a novel approach for creating science-ready catalogs through a software infrastructure developed for the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We integrate the data products released by the DES Data Management and additional products created by the DES collaboration in an environment known as DES Science Portal. Each step involved in the creation of a science-ready catalog is recorded in a relational database and can be recovered at any time. We describe how the DES Science Portal automates the creation and characterization of lightweight catalogs for DES Year 1 Annual Release, and show its flexibility in creating multiple catalogs with different inputs and configurations. Finally, we discuss the advantages of this infrastructure for large surveys such as DES and the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope. The capability of creating science-ready catalogs efficiently and with full control of the inputs and configurations used is an important asset for supporting science analysis using data from large astronomical surveys., Comment: The second paper of the series about the DES Science Portal, submitted to the Astronomy & Computing journal. It shows the infrastructure to create science-ready catalogs from DES photometric data and ancillary maps. This is the version accepted by the journal

A significant challenge facing photometric surveys for cosmological purposes is the need to produce reliable redshift estimates. The estimation of photometric redshifts (photo-zs) has been consolidated as the standard strategy to bypass the high production costs and incompleteness of spectroscopic redshift samples. Training-based photo-z methods require the preparation of a high-quality list of spectroscopic redshifts, which needs to be constantly updated. The photo-z training, validation, and estimation must be performed in a consistent and reproducible way in order to accomplish the scientific requirements. To meet this purpose, we developed an integrated web-based data interface that not only provides the framework to carry out the above steps in a systematic way, enabling the ease testing and comparison of different algorithms, but also addresses the processing requirements by parallelizing the calculation in a transparent way for the user. This framework called the Science Portal (hereafter Portal) was developed in the context the Dark Energy Survey (DES) to facilitate scientific analysis. In this paper, we show how the Portal can provide a reliable environment to access vast data sets, provide validation algorithms and metrics, even in the case of multiple photo-zs methods. It is possible to maintain the provenance between the steps of a chain of workflows while ensuring reproducibility of the results. We illustrate how the Portal can be used to provide photo-z estimates using the DES first year (Y1A1) data. While the DES collaboration is still developing techniques to obtain more precise photo-zs, having a structured framework like the one presented here is critical for the systematic vetting of DES algorithmic improvements and the consistent production of photo-zs in the future DES releases., Comment: The first paper of the series about the DES Science Portal, submitted to the Astronomy & Computing journal. It shows the infrastructure of pipelines related to the production of photometric redshifts to feed science-ready catalogs

We perform a systematic search for long-term extreme variability quasars (EVQs) in the overlapping Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and 3-Year Dark Energy Survey (DES) imaging, which provide light curves spanning more than 15 years. We identified ~1000 EVQs with a maximum g band magnitude change of more than 1 mag over this period, about 10% of all quasars searched. The EVQs have L_bol~10^45-10^47 erg/s and L/L_Edd~0.01-1. Accounting for selection effects, we estimate an intrinsic EVQ fraction of ~30-50% among all g<~22 quasars over a baseline of ~15 years. These EVQs are good candidates for so-called "changing-look quasars", where a spectral transition between the two types of quasars (broad-line and narrow-line) is observed between the dim and bright states. We performed detailed multi-wavelength, spectral and variability analyses for the EVQs and compared to their parent quasar sample. We found that EVQs are distinct from a control sample of quasars matched in redshift and optical luminosity: (1) their UV broad emission lines have larger equivalent widths; (2) their Eddington ratios are systematically lower; and (3) they are more variable on all timescales. The intrinsic difference in quasar properties for EVQs suggest that internal processes associated with accretion are the main driver for the observed extreme long-term variability. However, despite their different properties, EVQs seem to be in the tail of a continuous distribution of quasar properties, rather than standing out as a distinct population. We speculate that EVQs are normal quasars accreting at relatively low accretion rates, where the accretion flow is more likely to experience instabilities that drive the factor of few changes in flux on multi-year timescales., Comment: submitted to ApJ; comments welcome

We report on SPT-CLJ2011-5228, a giant system of arcs created by a cluster at $z=1.06$. The arc system is notable for the presence of a bright central image. The source is a Lyman Break galaxy at $z_s=2.39$ and the mass enclosed within the 14 arc second radius Einstein ring is $10^{14.2}$ solar masses. We perform a full light profile reconstruction of the lensed images to precisely infer the parameters of the mass distribution. The brightness of the central image demands that the central total density profile of the lens be shallow. By fitting the dark matter as a generalized Navarro-Frenk-White profile---with a free parameter for the inner density slope---we find that the break radius is $270^{+48}_{-76}$ kpc, and that the inner density falls with radius to the power $-0.38\pm0.04$ at 68 percent confidence. Such a shallow profile is in strong tension with our understanding of relaxed cold dark matter halos; dark matter only simulations predict the inner density should fall as $r^{-1}$. The tension can be alleviated if this cluster is in fact a merger; a two halo model can also reconstruct the data, with both clumps (density going as $r^{-0.8}$ and $r^{-1.0}$) much more consistent with predictions from dark matter only simulations. At the resolution of our Dark Energy Survey imaging, we are unable to choose between these two models, but we make predictions for forthcoming Hubble Space Telescope imaging that will decisively distinguish between them., Comment: 13 Pages. Accepted for publication in ApJ

Energy statistics are estimators of the energy distance that depend on the distances between observations. The idea behind energy statistics is to consider a statistical potential energy that would parallel Newton's gravitational potential energy. This statistical potential energy is zero if and only if a certain null hypothesis relating two distributions holds true. In Szekely and Rizzo(2004), a nonparametric test for equality of two multivariate distributions was given, based on the Euclidean distance between observations. This test was shown to be effective for high dimensional multivariate data, and was implemented by an appropriate distribution free permutation test. As an extension of Szekely and Rizzo (2013), here we consider the energy distance between to independent random objects X and Y on the object space M, that admits an embedding into an Euclidean space. In the case of a Kendall shape space, we can use its VW-embedding into an Euclidean space of matrices and define the extrinsic distance between two shapes as their VW associated distance. The corresponding energy distance between two distributions of Kendall shapes of k-ads will be called VW-energy distance We test our methodology on, to compare the distributions of Kendall shape of the contour of the midsagittal section of the Corpus Callossum in normal vs ADHD diagnosed individuals. Here we use the VW distance between the shapes of two children CC midsections. Using the CC data coming originally from http://fcon 1000.projects.nitrc.org/indi/adhd200/ it appears that the two Kendall shape distributions are not significantly different.