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The ability of species to respond to novel future climates is determined in part by their physiological capacity to tolerate climate change and the degree to which they have reached and continue to maintain distributional equilibrium with the environment. While broad-scale correlative climatic measurements of a species' niche are often described as estimating the fundamental niche, it is unclear how well these occupied portions actually approximate the fundamental niche per se, versus the fundamental niche that exists in environmental space, and what fitness values bounding the niche are necessary to maintain distributional equilibrium. Here, we investigate these questions by comparing physiological and correlative estimates of the thermal niche in the introduced North American house sparrow (Passer domesticus). Our results indicate that occupied portions of the fundamental niche derived from temperature correlations closely approximate the centroid of the existing fundamental niche calculated on a fitness threshold of 50% population mortality. Using these niche measures, a 75-year time series analysis (1930-2004) further shows that: (i) existing fundamental and occupied niche centroids did not undergo directional change, (ii) interannual changes in the two niche centroids were correlated, (iii) temperatures in North America moved through niche space in a net centripetal fashion, and consequently, (iv) most areas throughout the range of the house sparrow tracked the existing fundamental niche centroid with respect to at least one temperature gradient. Following introduction to a new continent, the house sparrow rapidly tracked its thermal niche and established continent-wide distributional equilibrium with respect to major temperature gradients. These dynamics were mediated in large part by the species' broad thermal physiological tolerances, high dispersal potential, competitive advantage in human-dominated landscapes, and climatically induced changes to the realized environmental space. Such insights may be used to conceptualize mechanistic climatic niche models in birds and other taxa.

Correlative species distribution models are widely used to quantify past shifts in ranges or communities, and to predict future outcomes under ongoing global change. Practitioners confront a wide range of potentially plausible models for ecological dynamics, but most specific applications only consider a narrow set. Here, we clarify that certain model structures can embed restrictive assumptions about key sources of forecast uncertainty into an analysis. To evaluate forecast uncertainties and our ability to explain community change, we fit and compared 39 candidate multi‐ or joint species occupancy models to avian incidence data collected at 320 sites across California during the early 20th century and resurveyed a century later. We found massive (>20,000 LOOIC) differences in within‐time information criterion across models. Poorer fitting models omitting multivariate random effects predicted less variation in species richness changes and smaller contemporary communities, with considerable variation in predicted spatial patterns in richness changes across models. The top models suggested avian environmental associations changed across time, contemporary avian occupancy was influenced by previous site‐specific occupancy states, and that both latent site variables and species associations with these variables also varied over time. Collectively, our results recapitulate that simplified model assumptions not only impact predictive fit but may mask important sources of forecast uncertainty and mischaracterize the current state of system understanding when seeking to describe or project community responses to global change. We recommend that researchers seeking to make long‐term forecasts prioritize characterizing forecast uncertainty over seeking to present a single best guess. To do so reliably, we urge practitioners to employ models capable of characterizing the key sources of forecast uncertainty, where predictors, parameters and random effects may vary over time or further interact with previous occurrence states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatial and temporal variation in fire characteristics—termed pyrodiversity—are increasingly recognized as important factors that structure wildlife communities in fire‐prone ecosystems, yet there have been few attempts to incorporate pyrodiversity or post‐fire habitat dynamics into predictive models of animal distributions and abundance to support post‐fire management. We use the black‐backed woodpecker—a species associated with burned forests—as a case study to demonstrate a pathway for incorporating pyrodiversity into wildlife habitat assessments for adaptive management. Employing monitoring data (2009–2019) from post‐fire forests in California, we developed three competing occupancy models describing different hypotheses for habitat associations: (1) a static model representing an existing management tool, (2) a temporal model accounting for years since fire, and (3) a temporal–landscape model which additionally incorporates emerging evidence from field studies about the influence of pyrodiversity. Evaluating predictive ability, we found superior support for the temporal–landscape model, which showed a positive relationship between occupancy and pyrodiversity and interactions between habitat associations and years since fire. We incorporated the new temporal–landscape model into an RShiny application to make this decision‐support tool accessible to decision‐makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Advances in spring migratory phenology comprise some of the most well‐documented evidence for the impacts of climate change on birds. Nevertheless, surprisingly little research has investigated whether birds are shifting their migratory phenology equally across sex and age classes—a question critical to understanding the potential for trophic mismatch. We used 60 years of bird banding data across North America—comprising over 4 million captures in total—to investigate both spring and fall migratory phenology for a total of 98 bird species across sex and age classes, with the exact numbers of species for each analysis depending on season‐specific data availability. Consistent with protandry, in spring (n = 89 species), adult males were the first to arrive and immature females were the last to arrive. In fall (n = 98), there was little difference between sexes, but adults tended to depart earlier than juveniles. Over 60 years, adult males advanced their phenology the fastest (−0.84 days per decade, 95 CrI = −1.22 to −0.47, n = 36), while adult and immature females advanced at a slower pace, causing the gap in male and female arrival times to widen over time. In the fall, there was no overall trend in phenology by age or sex (n = 57), driven in part by high interspecific variation related to breeding and molt strategies. Our results indicate consistent and predictable age‐ and sex‐based differences in the rates at which species' springtime phenology is shifting. The growing gap between male and female migratory arrival indicates sex‐based plasticity in adaptation to climate change that has strong potential to negatively impact current and future population trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]