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Background & Aims: Only a minority of excess alcohol drinkers develop cirrhosis. We developed and evaluated risk stratification scores to identify those at highest risk. Methods: Three cohorts (GenomALC-1: n = 1,690, GenomALC-2: n = 3,037, UK Biobank: relevant n = 6,898) with a history of heavy alcohol consumption (≥80 g/day (men), ≥50 g/day (women), for ≥10 years) were included. Cases were participants with alcohol-related cirrhosis. Controls had a history of similar alcohol consumption but no evidence of liver disease. Risk scores were computed from up to 8 genetic loci identified previously as associated with alcohol-related cirrhosis and 3 clinical risk factors. Score performance for the stratification of alcohol-related cirrhosis risk was assessed and compared across the alcohol-related liver disease spectrum, including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Results: A combination of 3 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (PNPLA3:rs738409, SUGP1-TM6SF2:rs10401969, HSD17B13:rs6834314) and diabetes status best discriminated cirrhosis risk. The odds ratios (ORs) and (95% CIs) between the lowest (Q1) and highest (Q5) score quintiles of the 3-SNP score, based on independent allelic effect size estimates, were 5.99 (4.18–8.60) (GenomALC-1), 2.81 (2.03–3.89) (GenomALC-2), and 3.10 (2.32–4.14) (UK Biobank). Patients with diabetes and high risk scores had ORs of 14.7 (7.69–28.1) (GenomALC-1) and 17.1 (11.3–25.7) (UK Biobank) compared to those without diabetes and with low risk scores. Patients with cirrhosis and HCC had significantly higher mean risk scores than patients with cirrhosis alone (0.76 ± 0.06 vs. 0.61 ± 0.02, p = 0.007). Score performance was not significantly enhanced by information on additional genetic risk variants, body mass index or coffee consumption. Conclusions: A risk score based on 3 genetic risk variants and diabetes status enables the stratification of heavy drinkers based on their risk of cirrhosis, allowing for the provision of earlier preventative interventions. Lay summary: Excessive chronic drinking leads to cirrhosis in some people, but so far there is no way to identify those at high risk of developing this debilitating disease. We developed a genetic risk score that can identify patients at high risk. The risk of cirrhosis is increased >10-fold with just two risk factors – diabetes and a high genetic risk score. Risk assessment using this test could enable the early and personalised management of this disease in high-risk patients.

Additional file 1 : Figure S1-S4. Figure S1 Correlation between serum parameters of iron metabolism in samples from cohort (i). Figure S2 Hepatic transferrin production is regulated by the hepatocyte nuclear factor 4α (HNF4α) axis. Figure S3 Transferrin expression correlates with HNF4α expression in liver disease. Figure S4 Correlation of selected HNF4α targets with the hepatic HNF4α expression in patients with advanced liver disease (cohort i). Table S1 Primer sequences used for experiments in primary hepatocyte culture.

INTRODUCTION: Up to 40% of patients with severe alcoholic hepatitis (AH) die within 6 months of presentation, making prompt diagnosis and appropriate treatment essential. We determined the associations between serum keratin-18 (K18) and histological features, prognosis, and differential response to prednisolone in patients with severe AH.METHODS: Total (K18-M65) and caspase-cleaved K18 (K18-M30) were quantified in pretreatment sera from 824 patients enrolled in the Steroids or Pentoxifylline for Alcoholic Hepatitis trial (87 with suitable histological samples) and disease controls.RESULTS: K18 fragments were markedly elevated in severe AH and strongly predicted steatohepatitis (alcoholic steatohepatitis) on biopsy (area under receiver operating characteristics: 0.787 and 0.807). Application of published thresholds to predict alcoholic steatohepatitis would have rendered biopsy unnecessary in 84% of all AH cases. K18-M30 and M65 were associated with 90-day mortality, independent of age and Model for End-stage Liver Disease score in untreated patients. The association for K18-M65 was independent of both age and Model for End-stage Liver Disease in prednisolone-treated patients. Modelling of the effect of prednisolone on 90-day mortality as a function of pretreatment serum K18 levels indicated benefit in those with high serum levels of K18-M30. At low pretreatment serum K18 levels, prednisolone was potentially harmful. A threshold of K18-M30 5 kIU/L predicted therapeutic benefit from prednisolone above this level (odds ratio: 0.433, 95% confidence interval: 0.19–0.95, P = 0.0398), but not below (odds ratio: 1.271, 95% confidence interval: 0.88–1.84, P = 0.199). Restricting prednisolone usage to the former group would have reduced exposure by 87%.DISCUSSION: In a large cohort of patients with severe AH, serum K18 strongly correlated with histological severity, independently associated with 90-day mortality, and predicted response to prednisolone therapy. Quantification of serum K18 levels could assist in clinical decision-making.

Fecal microbiota transplant (FMT) is a highly-effective therapy for recurrent Clostridioides difficile infection (rCDI), and shows promise for certain non-CDI indications. However, at present, its mechanisms of efficacy have remained poorly understood. Recent studies by our laboratory have noted the particular key importance of restoration of gut microbe-metabolite interactions in the ability of FMT to treat rCDI, including the impact of FMT upon short chain fatty acid (SCFAs) and bile acid metabolism. This includes a significant impact of these metabolites upon the life cycle of C. difficile directly, along with potential postulated additional benefits, including effects upon host immune response. In this Addendum, we first present an overview of these recent advancements in this field, and then describe additional novel data from our laboratory on the impact of FMT for rCDI upon several gut microbial-derived metabolites which had not previously been implicated as being of relevance.