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Ice shelf instability is one of the main sources of uncertainty in Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise. Calving events play a crucial role in ice shelf weakening but remain unpredictable, and their governing processes are still poorly understood. In this study, we analyze the unexpected September 2019 calving event from the Amery Ice Shelf, the largest since 1963 and which occurred almost a decade earlier than expected, to better understand the role of the atmosphere in calving.We find that atmospheric extremes provided a deterministic role in this event. A series of anomalously deep and stationary explosive twin polar cyclones over the Cooperation and Davis seas generated tides and winddriven ocean slope, leading to fracture amplification along the pre-existing rift and ultimately calving of the massive iceberg. The calving was triggered by high oceanward sea surface slopes produced by the storms. The observed recordanomalous atmospheric conditions were promoted by blocking ridges and Antarctic-wide anomalous poleward transport of heat and moisture. Blocking highs helped in (i) directing moist and warm air masses towards the ice shelf and (ii) maintaining the observed extreme cyclones stationary at the front of the ice shelf for several days. Accumulation of cold air over the ice sheet, due to the blocking highs, led to the formation of an intense cold high pressure over the ice sheet, which helped fuel sustained anomalously deep cyclones via increased baroclinicity. Our results stress the importance of atmospheric extremes in ice shelf dynamics via tides and sea surface slope and its need to be accounted for when considering Antarctic ice shelf variability and contribution to sea level, especially given that more of these extremes are predicted under a warmer climate., Mathematical Geodesy and Positioning

Effective numerical weather forecasting is vital in arid regions like the United Arab Emirates (UAE) where extreme events like heat waves, flash floods, and dust storms are severe. Hence, accurate forecasting of quantities like surface temperatures and humidity is very important. To date, there have been few seasonal-to-annual scale verification studies with WRF at high spatial and temporal resolution. This study employs a convection-permitting scale (2.7 km grid scale) simulation with WRF with Noah-MP, in daily forecast mode, from 1 January to 30 November 2015. WRF was verified using measurements of 2 m air temperature (T2 m), 2 m dew point (TD2 m), and 10 m wind speed (UV10 m) from 48 UAE WMO-compliant surface weather stations. Analysis was made of seasonal and diurnal performance within the desert, marine, and mountain regions of the UAE. Results show that WRF represents temperature (T2 m) quite adequately during the daytime with biases ≤+1 ∘C. There is, however, a nocturnal cold bias (−1 to −4 ∘C), which increases during hotter months in the desert and mountain regions. The marine region has the smallest T2 m biases (≤−0.75 ∘C). WRF performs well regarding TD2 m, with mean biases mostly ≤ 1 ∘C. TD2 m over the marine region is overestimated, though (0.75–1 ∘C), and nocturnal mountain TD2 m is underestimated (∼−2 ∘C). UV10 m performance on land still needs improvement, and biases can occasionally be large (1–2 m s−1). This performance tends to worsen during the hot months, particularly inland with peak biases reaching ∼ 3 m s−1. UV10 m is better simulated in the marine region (bias ≤ 1 m s−1). There is an apparent relationship between T2 m bias and UV10 m bias, which may indicate issues in simulation of the daytime sea breeze. TD2 m biases tend to be more independent. Studies such as these are vital for accurate assessment of WRF nowcasting performance and to identify model deficiencies. By combining sensitivity tests, process, and observational studies with seaso

© 2019 by the authors. In this study, we address the variations of bare soil surface microwave brightness temperatures and evaluate the performance of a dielectric mixing model over the desert of Kuwait. We use data collected in a field survey and data obtained from NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), European Space Agency Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2), and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I). In situ measurements are collected during two intensive field campaigns over bare, flat, and homogeneous soil terrains in the desert of Kuwait. Despite the prevailing dry desert environment, a large range of soil moisture values was monitored, due to precedent rain events and subsequent dry down. The mean relative difference (MRD) is within the range of ±0.005 m3·m-3 during the two sampling days. This reflects consistency of soil moisture in space and time. As predicted by the model, the higher frequency channels (18 to 19 GHz) demonstrate reduced sensitivity to surface soil moisture even in the absence of vegetation, topography and heterogeneity. In the 6.9 to 10.7 GHz range, only the horizontal polarization is sensitive to surface soil moisture. Instead, at the frequency of 1.4 GHz, both polarizations are sensitive to soil moisture and span a large dynamic range as predicted by the model. The error statistics of the difference between observed satellite brightness temperature (Tb) (excluding SMOS data due to radio frequency interference, RFI) and simulated brightness temperatures (Tbs) show values of Root Mean Square Deviation (RMSD) of 5.05 K at vertical polarization and 4.88 K at horizontal polarization. Such error could be due to the performance of the dielectric mixing model, soil moisture sampling depth and the impact of parametrization of effective temperature and roughness.