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Background: Life course epidemiology suggests that early life circumstances affect adult mortality, but most of the evidence is based on cohorts born in the beginning of the 20th century. It remains unclear whether and how the influences of early life circumstances on mortality have changed in later birth cohorts. Methods: Analyses rely on 10% register-based samples of households drawn from the 1950 and the 1975 Finnish censuses, with consistent follow-up of socioeconomic and housing-related characteristics and early mid-life mortality (at ages 30–55 years). We estimate survival models for the associations between childhood circumstances and all-cause, internal and external mortality for cohorts born in 1936–50 and 1961–75 adjusting for attained social characteristics. We estimate sibling intraclass correlations as summary measures of all early life and familial influences. Results: Adverse childhood social circumstances were typically associated with about 10–30% excess cause-specific mortality. These associations were almost fully attenuated by adjustment for achieved later life social characteristics. Early life influences have grown over time for mortality from external causes, particularly as related to home ownership and family type. Differentials have remained stable for internal causes. The intraclass correlations further confirmed the increasing association of early life circumstances on external-cause mortality. Conclusions: Our analyses show that the associations between childhood characteristics and mid-life mortality are substantial and almost fully mediated by achieved adult social characteristics. The increase in the contribution of childhood circumstances to mid-life mortality is driven by ever stronger associations with external causes of death.

Objectives To assess the association between multiple indicators of socioeconomic position and dementia-related death, and to estimate the contribution of dementia to socioeconomic differences in overall mortality at older ages. Design Prospective population-based register study. Setting Finland. Participants 11% random sample of the population aged 70-87 years resident in Finland at the end of year 2000 (n=54 964). Main outcome measure Incidence rates, Kaplan-Meier survival probabilities and Cox regression HRs of dementia mortality in 2001-2016 by midlife education, occupational social class and household income measured at ages 53-57 years. Results During the 528 387 person-years at risk, 11 395 individuals died from dementia (215.7 per 10 000 person-years). Lower midlife education, occupational social class and household income were associated with higher dementia mortality, and the differences persisted to the oldest old ages. Compared with mortality from all other causes, however, the socioeconomic differences emerged later. Dementia accounted for 28% of the difference between low and high education groups in overall mortality at age 70+ years, and for 21% of the difference between lowest and highest household income quintiles. All indicators of socioeconomic position were independently associated with dementia mortality, low household income being the strongest independent predictor (HR=1.24, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.32), followed by basic education (HR=1.14, 1.06 to 1.23). Manual occupational social class was related to a 6% higher hazard (HR=1.06, 1.01 to 1.11) compared with non-manual social class. Adjustment for midlife economic activity, baseline marital status and chronic health conditions attenuated the excess hazard of low midlife household income, although significant effects remained. Conclusion Several indicators of socioeconomic position predict dementia mortality independently and socioeconomic inequalities persist into the oldest old ages. The results de

Aims: Tobacco smoking and alcohol use contribute to differences in life expectancy between individuals with primary, secondary and tertiary education. Less is known about the contribution of these risk factors to differences at higher levels of education. We estimate the contribution of smoking and alcohol use to the life-expectancy differences between the doctorates and the other tertiary-educated groups in Finland and in Sweden. Methods: We used total population data from Finland and Sweden from 2011 to 2015 to calculate period life expectancies at 40 years of age. We present the results by sex and educational attainment, the latter categorised as doctorate or licentiate degrees, or other tertiary. We also present an age and cause of death decomposition to assess the contribution of deaths related to smoking and alcohol. Results: In Finland, deaths related to smoking and alcohol constituted 48.6% of the 2.1-year difference in life expectancy between men with doctorate degrees and the other tertiary-educated men, and 22.9% of the 2.1-year difference between women, respectively. In Sweden, these causes account for 22.2% of the 1.9-year difference among men, and 55.7% of the 1.6-year difference among women, which in the latter case is mainly due to smoking. Conclusions: Individuals with doctorates tend to live longer than other tertiary-educated individuals. This difference can be partly attributed to alcohol consumption and smoking.

Income security when health impairment or other social risks occur is a major objective of welfare states. This comparative study uses register data from four Nordic welfare states for examining equivalized disposable income during the last 12 years alive among men and women who died when aged 55–69 years old. The analysed outcome indicates the aggregate result of a varied set of income maintenance mechanisms. Median income increased in the Finnish, Norwegian and Swedish samples, but decreased somewhat in Denmark, probably due to relatively frequent transitions to retirement and larger income drops after retirement than in the other Nordic countries. Analyses of comparison samples weighted by propensity scores indicated a better income development among those who lived beyond the observation period than among those who died. The higher educated had a more favourable income development during the years prior to death than those with low education.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Mortality from alcohol-attributable causes is patterned by income. We study analysed the income trajectories 17-19 years prior to death in order to determine: 1) whether income levels and trajectories differ between those who die of alcohol-attributable causes, survivors with similar sociodemographic characteristics, all survivors and those dying of other causes; 2) whether the income trajectories of these groups differ by education; and 3) whether there are differences in income trajectories between Finland and Sweden - two countries with differing levels of alcohol-attributable mortality but similar welfare-provision systems. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using individual-level longitudinal register data including information on income, cause of death and socioeconomic position. SETTING: Finland and Sweden Participants: The subjects comprised an 11-percent sample of the Finnish population in 2006-07 and the total population of Sweden aged 45-64 in 2007-08. MEASUREMENTS: Median household income trajectories by educational group were calculated by cause of death and population alive during the respective years. Additionally, propensity score matching was used to match the surviving population to those dying from alcohol-attributable causes with regard to sociodemographic characteristics. FINDINGS: The median income 17-19 years prior to death from alcohol-attributable causes was 92% (Finland) and 91% (Sweden) of survivor income: one year prior to death the respective figures were 47% and 57%. The trajectories differed substantially. Those dying of alcohol-attributable causes had lower and decreasing incomes for substantially longer periods than survivors and people dying from other causes. These differences were more modest among the highly educated. The baseline sociodemographic characteristics of those dying of alcohol causes did not explain the different trajectories. CONCLUSIONS: In Finland and Sweden, income appears to decline substanti

BACKGROUND: Despite being comparatively egalitarian welfare states, the Nordic countries have not been successful in reducing health inequalities. Previous studies have suggested that smoking and alcohol contribute to this pattern. Few studies have focused on variations in alcohol-related and smoking-related mortality within the Nordic countries. We assess the contribution of smoking and alcohol to differences in life expectancy between countries and between income quintiles within countries.METHODS: We collected data from registers in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden comprising men and women aged 25-79 years during 1995-2007. Estimations of alcohol-related mortality were based on underlying and contributory causes of death on individual death certificates, and smoking-related mortality was based on an indirect method that used lung cancer mortality as an indicator for the population-level impact of smoking on mortality.RESULTS: About 40%-70% of the between-country differences in life expectancy in the Nordic countries can be attributed to smoking and alcohol. Alcohol-related and smoking-related mortality also made substantial contributions to income differences in life expectancy within countries. The magnitude of the contributions were about 30% in Norway, Sweden and among Finnish women to around 50% among Finnish men and in Denmark.CONCLUSIONS: Smoking and alcohol consumption make substantial contributions to both between-country differences in mortality among the Nordic countries and within-country differences in mortality by income. The size of these contributions vary by country and sex.

Objectives The effects of socio-demographic and economic factors on institutional long-term care (LTC) among people with dementia remain unclear. Inconsistent findings may relate to time varying effects of these factors as dementia progresses. To clarify the question, we estimated institutional LTC trajectories by age, marital status and household income in the eight years preceding dementia-related and non-dementia-related deaths. Methods We assessed a population-representative sample of Finnish men and women for institutional LTC over an eight-year period before death. Deaths related to dementia and all other causes at the age of 70+ in 2001-2007 were identified from the Death Register. Dates in institutional LTC were obtained from national care registers. We calculated the average and time-varying marginal effects of age, marital status and household income on the estimated probability of institutional LTC use, employing repeated-measures logistic regression models with generalised estimating equations (GEE). Results The effects of age, marital status and household income on institutional LTC varied across the time before death, and the patterns differed between dementia-related and non-dementia-related deaths. Among people who died of dementia, being of older age, non-married and having a lower income predicted a higher probability of institutional LTC only until three to four years before death, after which the differences diminished or disappeared. Among women in particular, the probability of institutional LTC was nearly equal across age, marital status and income groups in the last year before dementia-related death. Among those who died from non-dementia-related causes, in contrast, the differences widened until death. Conclusions We show that individuals with dementia require intensive professional care at the end of life, regardless of their socio-demographic or economic resources. The results imply that the potential for extending community living for pe

Objectives: Prior work has examined the shape of the income-mortality association, but work has not compared gradients between countries. In this study, we focus on changes over time in the shape of income-mortality gradients for 4 Nordic countries during a period of rising income inequality. Context and time differentials in shape imply that the relationship between income and mortality is not fixed. Setting: Population-based cohort study of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. Participants: We collected data on individuals aged 25 or more in 1995 (n=12.98 million individuals, 0.84 million deaths) and 2003 (n=13.08 million individuals, 0.90 million deaths). We then examined the household size equivalised disposable income at the baseline year in relation to the rate of mortality in the following 5 years. Results: A steep income gradient in mortality in men and women across all age groups except the oldest old in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. From the 1990s to 2000s mortality dropped, but generally more so in the upper part of the income distribution than in the lower part. As a consequence, the shape of the income gradient in mortality changed. The shift in the shape of the association was similar in all 4 countries. Conclusions: A non-linear gradient exists between income and mortality in most cases and because of a more rapid mortality decline among those with high income the income gradient has become steeper over time.

OBJECTIVES: Prior work has examined the shape of the income-mortality association, but work has not compared gradients between countries. In this study, we focus on changes over time in the shape of income-mortality gradients for 4 Nordic countries during a period of rising income inequality. Context and time differentials in shape imply that the relationship between income and mortality is not fixed.SETTING: Population-based cohort study of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden.PARTICIPANTS: We collected data on individuals aged 25 or more in 1995 (n=12.98 million individuals, 0.84 million deaths) and 2003 (n=13.08 million individuals, 0.90 million deaths). We then examined the household size equivalised disposable income at the baseline year in relation to the rate of mortality in the following 5 years.RESULTS: A steep income gradient in mortality in men and women across all age groups except the oldest old in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. From the 1990s to 2000s mortality dropped, but generally more so in the upper part of the income distribution than in the lower part. As a consequence, the shape of the income gradient in mortality changed. The shift in the shape of the association was similar in all 4 countries.CONCLUSIONS: A non-linear gradient exists between income and mortality in most cases and because of a more rapid mortality decline among those with high income the income gradient has become steeper over time.

Objectives: To assess the association between multiple indicators of socioeconomic position and dementia-related death, and to estimate the contribution of dementia to socioeconomic differences in overall mortality at older ages. Design: Prospective population-based register study. Setting: Finland. Participants: 11% random sample of the population aged 70-87 years resident in Finland at the end of year 2000 (n=54 964). Main outcome measure: Incidence rates, Kaplan-Meier survival probabilities and Cox regression HRs of dementia mortality in 2001-2016 by midlife education, occupational social class and household income measured at ages 53-57 years. Results: During the 528 387 person-years at risk, 11 395 individuals died from dementia (215.7 per 10 000 person-years). Lower midlife education, occupational social class and household income were associated with higher dementia mortality, and the differences persisted to the oldest old ages. Compared with mortality from all other causes, however, the socioeconomic differences emerged later. Dementia accounted for 28% of the difference between low and high education groups in overall mortality at age 70+ years, and for 21% of the difference between lowest and highest household income quintiles. All indicators of socioeconomic position were independently associated with dementia mortality, low household income being the strongest independent predictor (HR=1.24, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.32), followed by basic education (HR=1.14, 1.06 to 1.23). Manual occupational social class was related to a 6% higher hazard (HR=1.06, 1.01 to 1.11) compared with non-manual social class. Adjustment for midlife economic activity, baseline marital status and chronic health conditions attenuated the excess hazard of low midlife household income, although significant effects remained. Conclusion: Several indicators of socioeconomic position predict dementia mortality independently and socioeconomic inequalities persist into the oldest old ages. The res

BACKGROUND: The estimated effect of unemployment on depression may be biased by time-varying, intermediate, and time-constant confounding. One of the few methods that can account for these sources of bias is the parametric g-formula, but until now this method has required that all relevant confounders be measured. METHODS: We combine the g-formula with methods to adjust for unmeasured time-constant confounding. We use this method to estimate how antidepressant purchasing is affected by a hypothetical intervention that provides employment to the unemployed. The analyses are based on an 11% random sample of the Finnish population who were 30-35 years of age in 1995 (n = 49,753) and followed until 2012. We compare estimates that adjust for measured baseline confounders and time-varying socioeconomic covariates (confounders and mediators) with estimates that also include individual-level fixed-effect intercepts. RESULTS: In the empirical data, around 10% of person-years are unemployed. Setting these person-years to employed, the g-formula without individual intercepts found a 5% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.5%, 7.4%) reduction in antidepressant purchasing at the population level. However, when also adjusting for individual intercepts, we find no association (-0.1%; 95% CI = -1.8%, 1.5%). CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that the relationship between unemployment and antidepressants is confounded by residual time-constant confounding (selection). However, restrictions on the effective sample when using individual intercepts can compromise the validity of the results. Overall our approach highlights the potential importance of adjusting for unobserved time-constant confounding in epidemiologic studies and demonstrates one way that this can be done.

Objectives The effects of socio-demographic and economic factors on institutional long-term care (LTC) among people with dementia remain unclear. Inconsistent findings may relate to time-varying effects of these factors as dementia progresses. To clarify the question, we estimated institutional LTC trajectories by age, marital status and household income in the eight years preceding dementia-related and non-dementia-related deaths. Methods We assessed a population-representative sample of Finnish men and women for institutional LTC over an eight-year period before death. Deaths related to dementia and all other causes at the age of 70+ in 2001–2007 were identified from the Death Register. Dates in institutional LTC were obtained from national care registers. We calculated the average and time-varying marginal effects of age, marital status and household income on the estimated probability of institutional LTC use, employing repeated-measures logistic regression models with generalised estimating equations (GEE). Results The effects of age, marital status and household income on institutional LTC varied across the time before death, and the patterns differed between dementia-related and non-dementia-related deaths. Among people who died of dementia, being of older age, non-married and having a lower income predicted a higher probability of institutional LTC only until three to four years before death, after which the differences diminished or disappeared. Among women in particular, the probability of institutional LTC was nearly equal across age, marital status and income groups in the last year before dementia-related death. Among those who died from non-dementia-related causes, in contrast, the differences widened until death. Conclusions We show that individuals with dementia require intensive professional care at the end of life, regardless of their socio-demographic or economic resources. The results imply that the potential for extending community living for pe

The effects of unemployment on depression are difficult to establish because of confounding and limited understanding of the mechanisms at the population level. In particular, due to longitudinal interdependencies between exposures, mediators and outcomes, intermediate confounding is an obstacle for mediation analyses. Using longitudinal Finnish register data on socio-economic characteristics and medication purchases, we extracted individuals who entered the labor market between ages 16 and 25 in the period 1996 to 2001 and followed them until the year 2007 (n = 42,172). With the parametric G-formula we estimated the population-averaged effect on first antidepressant purchase of a simulated intervention which set all unemployed person-years to employed. In the data, 74% of person-years were employed and 8% unemployed, the rest belonging to studying or other status. In the intervention scenario, employment rose to 85% and the hazard of first antidepressant purchase decreased by 7.6%. Of this reduction 61% was mediated, operating primarily through changes in income and household status, while mediation through other health conditions was negligible. These effects were negligible for women and particularly prominent among less educated men. By taking complex interdependencies into account in a framework of observed repeated measures data, we found that eradicating unemployment raises income levels, promotes family formation, and thereby reduces antidepressant consumption at the population-level.

OBJECTIVES: Excess winter mortality is a well-established phenomenon across the developed world. However, whether individual-level factors increase vulnerability to the effects of winter remains inadequately examined. Our aim was to assess long-term trends in excess winter mortality in Finland and estimate the modifying effect of sociodemographic and health characteristics on the risk of winter death. DESIGN: Nationwide register study. SETTING: Finland. PARTICIPANTS: Population aged 60 years and over, resident in Finland, 1971-2019. OUTCOME MEASURES: Age-adjusted winter and non-winter death rates, and winter-to-non-winter rate ratios and relative risks (multiplicative interaction effects between winter and modifying characteristics). RESULTS: We found a decreasing trend in the relative winter excess mortality over five decades and a drop in the series around 2000. During 2000-2019, winter mortality rates for men and women were 11% and 14% higher than expected based on non-winter rates. The relative risk of winter death increased with age but did not vary by income. Compared with those living with at least one other person, individuals in institutions had a higher relative risk (1.07, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.08). Most pre-existing health conditions did not predict winter death, but persons with dementia emerged at greater relative risk (1.06, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.07). CONCLUSIONS: Although winter mortality seems to affect frail people more strongly-those of advanced age, living in institutions and with dementia-there is an increased risk even beyond the more vulnerable groups. Protection of high-risk groups should be complemented with population-level preventive measures.