Search

With over 39,000 firearm-related deaths per year in the United States, few topics are more controversial than civilian gun ownership and gun policies. This research provides analyses of the effects of gun-related laws on violent crime in the United States. Gun-related policies and violent crime analyses were conducted to compare differences in the 1994–2004 Federal Assault Weapons Ban and current state assault weapon bans, unrestricted-carry, right-to-carry laws, and the violent crime rate. Data were gathered from the Federal Bureau of Investigation to identify the differences in violent crime across all states and Washington, D.C., from 1970–2017. Data were also collected from numerous other government agencies to establish a body of independent variables to conduct multiple linear regression analyses. Based on the results of multiple linear regression models, we concluded that there is a statistically significant relationship between gun laws and the violent crime rate. Our model indicates a violent crime rate decrease of 93.14 violent crimes per 100,000 inhabitants with the implementation of assault weapon bans. Also, our model shows a murder rate decrease of 1.53 and 0.55 murders per 100,000 inhabitants with the adoption of unrestricted and right-to-carry laws.

In this project, we examine the potential net value to service members using the Blended Retirement System’s (BRS) lump-sum option to buy a home. The lump-sum option is a highly controversial element of the new BRS. Due to the relatively high discount rate used to determine the value of a retiree’s lump-sum payment, most financial analysts warn against electing the lump-sum option because doing so significantly decreases the net value of one’s retirement benefits over time. While that statement is usually true, the value of the lump-sum option to an individual service member depends on what they do with the money once they elect the lump-sum option. There are no prior studies that compare the normal annuity with potential outcomes of using the lump-sum, presumably because of the immense number of variables and unknowns inherent in attempting to do so. In this light, this project builds a decision-supporting financial model that can be used by service members to compare the value of a normal annuity with the value of using the lump-sum option to purchase a home. The model built here can be informative to service members as they approach retirement and have to decide for themselves whether the lump-sum is the more enticing retention tool.

This thesis analyzes the current state of the Close-In Weapon System (CIWS) and decides what improvements can be used to improve system operational readiness and life-cycle support. Currently, CIWS is supported by a Readiness Based Sparing Model that has drawn criticism from senior naval leaders for the operational availability (Ao) that it provides. We analyze data to derive a list of five “key offenders” parts that heavily impact operational availability of CIWS. We also analyze how improving the sparing of these “key offenders” can potentially improve operational availability. Additionally, we analyze the timing of actual failures in the fleet. This paper addresses CIWS operational readiness and life-cycle support while exploring whether other processes can be used to improve the operational readiness of U.S. Guided Missile Destroyers’ CIWS systems. The major findings of our research are as follows: first, that timing “luck” of failures accounted for a 7% difference between the worst-case scenario downtime and actual downtime. Second, that actual system availability was 86% of calendar days over fiscal years 2017 and 2018, exceeding NSWC’s Ao predictions. Third, that the top five “key offenders,” which these parts can potentially affect, account for a 3% improvement to operational downtime. Finally, that 10 of the 67 ships showed no downtime associated with CIWS, which could be a result of operational schedules.

Due to excessive purchase and maintenance costs of naval dress uniforms, our team utilized a cost-benefit analysis approach to analyze each component of the four dress uniforms to identify cost savings. We examined the dress uniform history, implementation, and the prescribed manner of wear to identify components that could be eliminated, changed, modified or cross utilized. We created a survey and received 185 complete responses from Naval Postgraduate School naval officers. More than 45% of respondents spent over $2,000 on dress uniforms in their careers, with the average years of service equating to 7.58 years. Officers receive an inadequate initial clothing allowance that only covers an average of 73% of the mandated uniform costs. Our team identified two courses of action that result in cost savings. Replacing embroidered rank and service designator with hard shoulder boards results in an average cost savings of $112.00 per uniform and provides a single rank and service designator device that can be cross utilized with multiple uniforms. At retirement, we estimate total cost savings of $873.00 for males and $1,160.67 for females. Eliminating the dinner dress white jacket results in an immediate cost savings of $211.58 for males and $331.40 for females. We recommend these cost savings be considered for adoption by the Navy’s Uniforms Matters Office and that the special initial clothing monetary allowance be increased to cover mandated uniform purchases at commissioning.

The Department of Defense (DoD) budget is the end product of the Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution process, which is submitted to Congress two years in advance of execution. Thus, the DoD will always demonstrate a monetary difference between the planning and execution phases. A significant difference between the planning and execution affects providers such as Naval Supply Systems Command (NAVSUP), which is responsible for the managing and financing of materiel. From 2007 to 2017, there has been an average budget difference of $3.1B for Operation and Maintenance, Navy appropriation. NAVSUP receives the DoD budget requirements from resource sponsors and budget submitting offices (BSOs) and determines how to invest by utilizing an inflation category code (ICC), such as Consumable parts (412) and Repairable parts (503). This study analyzed the budget differences for ICC 412 and 503 from 2007–2017; it demonstrated which budget line items (BLIs) and BSOs had the most significant contribution to these differences. For ICC 412 and 503, our analysis showed the most significant differences were observed in the years 2007–2011 and 2014–2017, and that the BLIs Mission and Other Flight Operations (1A1A) and Mission and Other Ship Operations (1B1B) demonstrated the most significant budget differences. It was also determined that BSO for Commander, U.S. Fleet Forces, and Commander, U.S. Pacific Fleet had the most significant impact on the budget differences for these BLIs.

Marine Corps unrestricted officers are required to follow a pre-determined career roadmap that makes them more competitive for promotion and O-5-level command. The purpose of this MBA project was to research the post–entry-level education system for unrestricted officers. The project aimed to determine if a more focused career path is both attainable and beneficial to the Marine Corps and what this model would look like. The research utilized unrestricted ground supply officers as the test subjects. The sample population was composed of officers O-2 through O-6. Additionally, this project undertook a multi-step approach with specific emphasis on the following data to obtain a decision point: current educational career progression system, survey analysis, and promotion data for colonels with ground supply officer background. This project’s survey identified that 62% of the ground supply officer would choose to become a domain expert rather than follow the current command career path, while the same sample indicated in a Likert scale the need for post–entry-level education. The results indicate that some communities in the Marine Corps already follow a domain expert career path similar to the one proposed. This project recommends that each occupational community in the Marine Corps look at the proposed career path model and shape it to fit the needs of domain expertise.

This research used afloat uniforms of the United States Navy to explain the costs and benefits of implementing the Navy 2-Piece (PC) flame-resistant uniform. This study examined the history and characteristics of Navy afloat uniforms. It analyzed benefits and costs of implementing the new flame-resistant 2-PC uniform as an additional at sea uniform along with the current improved flame-resistant variant (IFRV) coveralls. The research concluded that even though course of action (COA) 3 (Status Quo) produces the lowest cost, the improved flame-resistant coverall does not provide the versatility and capability that the 2-PC uniform offers sailors to operate in all climates, environments, and workspaces on a daily basis. In comparison to the flame-resistant coverall, the 2-PC has no limitations and delivers the advantages of being deckplate-driven, improving the quality of life and work, satisfying all communities, and offering a better fit and more comfort. COA 2 has a net benefit of -$85,174,785.00, which is not a viable choice as it does not deliver any benefits. Our study has concluded that COA 1 would be the best option, because it will produce a net benefit of $20,637,638.00 while providing numerous non-monetized benefits to our sailors.

This thesis investigates the investments by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and whether they may be construed as a national security threat to the United States. China has lauded its Made in China (MIC) 2025 plan with an emphasis on becoming the world’s superpower. By its entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO), and subsequent Most Favored Nation (MFN) status granted by the United States, China has amassed a great deal of wealth, power, and influence around the globe. Through our research we reviewed articles, books, and papers that underscore China’s hegemonic plans through acquisitions to support our argument. In the face of China’s incursions into economic areas once dominated by the United States, we conclude that China has been successful thus far by its pursuit of strategic economic and infrastructure assets. As America continues to acquiesce, China will supersede the U.S. not only economically but militarily. We provide recommendations that will have immediate impacts and may help to retain America’s sovereignty as an autonomous nation.

This report analyzes publicly available, current and historical Total Force Costing (TFC) methods, data sources, modeling assumptions, and strategies to determine if TFC similarities exist between the services. If similarities are found, is it possible to construct a best-practice TFC model that will satisfy multi-service budget estimating needs in a joint environment? Despite the blending of resources in a joint-warfighting environment, it is apparent that each service continues to use its own assumptions, cost groupings, and calculations to plan future spending. Cross-talk between service budget planners is a mandatory starting point for future TFC calculation research. This will allow the services to create similar cost groupings, coordinate assumptions, and more accurately estimate future total force spending.

Reserve P-3 squadrons are directed to maintain a complement of six aircraft in their inventory. This number was determined through the application of a concept known as the crew seat ratio (CSR). While implementation of the CSR provides an accurate means of determining what is required operationally, further application results in excessive aircraft assignments, stressing maintenance capacities. The CSR assumes all aircrew will attain scheduled proficiency and readiness requirements. However, only deploying aircrew are expected to pursue readiness requirements throughout the FRTP. Therefore, applying a consistent ratio to all aircrew results in assigning more aircraft than what is required. The assignment of six aircraft can be burdensome, as reserve maintenance departments are at a disadvantage and not adequately staffed to support that many aircraft. This thesis performs multiple analyses in optimization modeling to determine the minimum ("best-fit") number of aircraft assignments for day-to-day operations while maintaining the requisite support for the active duty component. It accounts for constraints resulting from individual training and proficiency requirements, aircrew readiness and qualification requirements, and maintenance practices and capabilities. This thesis examines the development and application of The Orion Model (TOM), and demonstrates feasibility with an optimal solution of four aircraft assigned per squadron.

The Defense Travel System (DTS) was established with the intent of streamlining the Department of Defense’s (DoD) travel claims and reimbursement process for users. The DTS has fallen short of expectations, far exceeds budgetary estimates, and perpetuates a culture of rigid rules and cumbersome administrative processes that burden the warfighter. The research presented here outlines the background and current process of the DTS, and examines leading process improvement techniques including Lean Six Sigma and the Theory of Constraints. This thesis theorizes that a paradigm shift in the DoD’s culture to a focus on human integration and process improvement will result in decreased costs, increased savings, and improved user satisfaction. In an effort to address the research question, "How can we reduce the administrative burden of the DTS on the warfighter?" this research concludes that the removal of the administrative voucher approval requirement coupled with an online chat capability will significantly enhance the overall efficiency of the system.

The Future Fleet Architecture team within OPNAV N9I is starting the creation of a fleet decision aid called the Architecture Integration Decision Aid (ArnDT). While containing various functional layers, this study will serve as a focused effort to make a recommendation for how to allocate resources in the development of the cost model to be utilized. Having researched various cost types, the best choice of model will be based on Total Ownership Cost framework. This study shall provide background on cost estimation, the DoD Acquisition System, and the mission of OPNAV N9I. Having established a foundation of applicability, a qualitative look at Total Ownership Cost will be conducted in order to identify the broad aspects of costs that should be addressed within such a model. An exploratory case study demonstrating the supporting systems and ArnDT capabilities will be presented to highlight what a working total ownership cost model will provide to a completed ArnDT. Lastly, a discussion of applications shall lead to a quantitative recommendation for where resources should be invested to bring this cutting-edge capability from an idea to a reality.

Our research examines the effect of combat deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan on casualties. We use restricted data from the Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC) and Social Security Administration (SSA) to construct a panel of all U.S. Active Duty service members having served at some point during the years 2001-2012. Casualties disproportionately occur at higher rates among (i) young, white, males (ii) enlisted personnel (iii) less educated personnel (iv) and those in combat job types. Our estimates indicate that overall U.S. military personnel who deployed in an individual year to Iraq or Afghanistan had a 48 per 100,000 higher probability of death than non-deployed military personnel who remained stateside. The increased fatal injury risk of deployed U.S. military personnel is 15 times higher than the national average civilian workplace fatality rate, but roughly equal to the fatal injury risk faced in some of the most dangerous civilian occupations. Our estimates suggest a compensating wage differential equal to $808 per month would be appropriate, in comparison to the current status quo of $225 per month in danger pay (and additional tax benefits) provided to U.S. military personnel deployed into combat zones. The additional compensation should also be adjusted by service or job type.

This article examines cross-elasticity effects in excise taxation for markets characterized by monopolistic competition and over-shifting. Extending the constant elasticity demand model to consider cross-elasticity leads to notably different results regarding tax revenue maximization. With nonzero but weak cross-elasticity effects relative to the price elasticity, we derive a higher optimal tax-price ratio compared to prior research. With strong crosselasticity, revenue can continually be increased by raising the excise tax. Overall, the study offers government greater incentive to use excise taxes to obtain revenue.

This paper empirically examines whether the aging of a fleet affects operational availability and operating cost using a unique data-set on the 117 47-foot Motor Lifeboats (MLBs) of the United States Coast Guard (USCG). Procured from 1997 to 2003, the 47-foot MLB is the standard lifeboat of the USCG and all 117 MLBs remain in service. The aging of the MLB fleet has resulted in higher annual operating costs and lower operational availability, although the nature of this relationship remains unclear. Our estimation strategy utilizes an error components esti- mator to examine these issues. We employ three variants of the dependent variables (i.e. the standard logarithmic transformation as is most commonly seen in the literature, inverse hyperbolic sine [IHS], and level outcomes). The point estimates from the standard logarithmic model finds operational availability for the MLBs decreases at a rate between 0.83 and 1.8% per year and cost increases at a rate between 0.33 and 7.81% per year. Similar effects are shown with the IHS and level outcome specifications. In terms of nonlinearity effects, we find the most pronounced changes in operational availability and cost occur for MLBs aged 15 years or more (in comparison to younger MLBs).

The United States Marine Corps promotes within a closed system; the quality we retain today is the pool of available leaders in the future. The establishment of the competitive career designation process in 2010 provides an ideal opportunity to research the quality of officers we are retaining and losing. This research examines factors significant to the departure of high-quality junior Marine officers, and compares measures of performance of the officers who continue service. The top five percent of graduates from The Basic School (TBS) receive meritorious designation, while the remainder of the population competes on the Officer Retention Board (ORB) near the end of their first term. We show that TBS performance directly relates to officer performance over his/her initial obligation and subsequent selection by the ORB. Utilizing a probit model and a data set of 3,917 Marine officers, we provide statistical evidence that the source of career designation is not significant to an officer’s decision to exit the Marine Corps. However, very high quality officers who are on the margin of meritorious designation have the highest probability of exiting service when compared to their peers. We recommend expanding the meritorious designation program to the top 10 percent of TBS graduates to assist in capturing high-quality junior officers.

Employers widely utilize flexible work arrangements (FWAs) both to improve employee work-life balance and to increase organizational effectiveness. To date, the private sector has embraced FWA to a much larger extent than has the military. In this project, I outline the underpinnings of workplace flexibility and describe how it can potentially improve the military labor market. First, I outline a conceptual framework that addresses the work environment's dynamics and complexities while assessing the most common benefits and challenges found in FWAs. Second, I outline a military-centered five-phase process that facilitates the implementation of FWAs in the military work environment. The model is not a panacea, but is instead a comprehensive starting point to help management understand the importance of workplace flexibility, the positive effects from the organizations' and defense members' perspectives, and the elements of an implementation plan.

This paper examines over-shifting in excise taxes, using the constant elasticity demand function under monopolistic competition. We apply the solution for price from this model to previous studies to obtain estimated price elasticities of demand. We also derive the excise tax, which maximizes tax revenue under this formulation, resulting in a revenue-maximizing tax-price ratio based upon the price elasticity. The model is applied to some previous experience regarding excise tax increases for alcoholic beverages and cigarettes. Our study offers structural insights behind empirical research that finds over-shifting. The model can also be used to help construct excise tax policy.

A fundamental tenant of economics is that actions should be evaluated in terms of benefits and costs, including actions aimed at reducing military or civilian casualties. Safety improvements only expand individual or social welfare if the benefits of the improvements exceed their costs. Monetary costs of safety programs are generally determined through engineering or accounting studies and are fairly non-controversial. Against their costs, must be weighed the value of fewer fatalities and injuries, which requires both an accurate assessment of the fatalities and injuries eliminated and a monetary value of the lives saved and injuries avoided. Some argue that no monetary value can be placed on human life so any effort that improves safety is worthwhile. Clearly, the military cannot operate as if human life had infinite value. The focal message of our chapter is that choices must be made because complete safety is impossible and approving every advancement in armament, technology, or training that would reduce causalities or injuries would soon exhaust the military budget and leave no resources available for the core activities of defending the country.

A fundamental tenant of economics is that actions should be evaluated in terms of benefits and costs, including actions aimed at reducing military or civilian casualties. Safety improvements only expand individual or social welfare if the benefits of the improvements exceed their costs. Monetary costs of safety programs are generally determined through engineering or accounting studies and are fairly non-controversial. Against their costs, must be weighed the value of fewer fatalities and injuries, which requires both an accurate assessment of the fatalities and injuries eliminated and a monetary value of the lives saved and injuries avoided. Some argue that no monetary value can be placed on human life so any effort that improves safety is worthwhile. Clearly, the military cannot operate as if human life had infinite value. The focal message of our chapter is that choices must be made because complete safety is impossible and approving every advancement in armament, technology, or training that would reduce causalities or injuries would soon exhaust the military budget and leave no resources available for the core activities of defending the country.

This paper combines new, author-collected tax data with data both from the American Chamber of Commerce Researchers Association (ACCRA) cost of living index (COLI) and from the Tax Burden on Tobacco (TBT) to measure the relative effects of city, county, and state excise cigarette taxation on cigarette prices. The results indicate that a $1 increase in the state excise cigarette tax increases cigarette prices between $1.10 and $1.14, but that a $1 increase in a city or county-level excise tax increases prices by $1.07. These findings are similar between premium and generic cigarette brands. Additionally, urban areas located near states with lower cigarette taxes tend to have lower cigarette prices relative to urban areas located near states with the same or higher tax rates.

This paper combines new, author-collected tax data with data both from the American Chamber of Commerce Researchers Association (ACCRA) cost of living index (COLI) and from the Tax Burden on Tobacco (TBT) to measure the relative effects of city, county and state excise cigarette taxation on cigarette prices. The results indicate that a $1 increase in the state excise cigarette tax increases cigarette prices between $1.10 and $1.14, but that a $1 increase in a city or county-level excise tax increases prices by $1.07. These findings are similar between premium and generic cigarette brands. Additionally, urban areas located near states with lower cigarette taxes tend to have lower cigarette prices relative to urban areas located near states with the same or higher tax rates.

The United States Marine Corps promotes within a closed system; the quality we retain today is the pool of available leaders in the future. The establishment of the competitive career designation process in 2010 provides an ideal opportunity to research the quality of officers we are retaining and losing. This research examines factors significant to the departure of high-quality junior Marine officers, and compares measures of performance of the officers who continue service. The top five percent of graduates from The Basic School (TBS) receive meritorious designation, while the remainder of the population competes on the Officer Retention Board (ORB) near the end of their first term. We show that TBS performance directly relates to officer performance over his/her initial obligation and subsequent selection by the ORB. Utilizing a probit model and a data set of 3,917 Marine officers, we provide statistical evidence that the source of career designation is not significant to an officer’s decision to exit the Marine Corps. However, very high quality officers who are on the margin of meritorious designation have the highest probability of exiting service when compared to their peers. We recommend expanding the meritorious designation program to the top 10 percent of TBS graduates to assist in capturing high-quality junior officers., http://archive.org/details/annalysisofdepar1094548590, Captain, United States Marine Corps, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

MBA Professional Project, This thesis provides an analysis of the Servicemembers' Group Life Insurance (SGLI) program to determine the best value for our servicemembers and their families. Our research examined the history and the implementation of the SGLI program and compared the program against the life insurance industry’s recommendations for adequate life insurance coverage. As a result of our analysis of the SGLI program, we determined that up to 478,894 servicemembers, or 37% of active duty on-hand strength, have insufficient life insurance coverage through the SGLI program. Our team has recommended three courses of action to tailor a servicemember’s life insurance coverage to their needs and provide more value to the servicemember. The first course of action is to adjust for inflation, raising the current maximum coverage of $400,000 to $550,000, rounding up from $522,521.38 to the nearest increment of $50,000. The second course of action is to allow servicemembers to obtain maximum coverage equal to five times their annual salaries, mirroring the Federal Employees Group Life Insurance (FEGLI) program. The third course of action is to allow servicemembers to obtain maximum coverage equal to ten times their annual salaries, aligning with industry standards and rules of thumb. If implemented, we strongly believe these courses of action in this study will provide sufficient death benefits to all active duty servicemembers in the Department of Defense., http://archive.org/details/analysisoftheser1094564034, Captain, United States Marine Corps, Captain, United States Marine Corps

MBA Professional Project, The purpose of this research is to assess the relationship between fraud penalties levied by the Department of Justice (DOJ) against defense contractors (firms) that commit fraud against the Department of Defense (DOD) and the effect of those penalties on future fraud recidivism. Using hand-collected historical data related to fraud committed against the DOD, we find a total of 511 fraud cases and $13.5 billion in fines between 1995 and 2018. An estimated regression model is used to analyze the relationship between fraud penalties and fraud occurrences. Multiple specifications of our model show little to no relationship between DOD- and DOJ-imposed fines and subsequent contractor fraud commission. Given the magnitude of resources deployed for setting and enforcing fines and penalties, the DOD should consider employing alternative tools to encourage compliance with procurement laws and discourage contractor fraud., http://archive.org/details/fraudinthedodist1094564056, Outstanding Thesis, First Lieutenant, United States Air Force, Technical Sergeant, United States Air Force

In this thesis, we examine whether the Navy should maintain its current scope of search and rescue (SAR) resource employment or consider alternative ways to conduct SAR missions. Station SAR services are critical enablers to the generation of naval aviation force readiness; however, use of a multi-mission combat helicopter may not be the most economical method to deliver those services, particularly when balanced with an increasing fleet demand. We analyzed existing fleet inventory, personnel, and operational demand data at Naval Air Station at Lemoore, CA. We considered several options to alleviate the demand placed on the inventory of helicopters within the squadron and developed three distinct courses of action: procuring different aircraft, changing the location for the base of operations, or maintaining the status quo. Our cost benefit analysis results show that procuring a different aircraft in order to make the MH-60S available for other missions is a rather costly option. While the status quo remains the most economical option for providing current SAR capabilities, to support efficient future SAR capabilities, we recommend relocating the base of operations to Salinas, CA., N9 - Warfare Systems, http://archive.org/details/costbenefitanaly1094564032, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

MBA Professional Project, This thesis analyzes the current state of the Close-In Weapon System (CIWS) and decides what improvements can be used to improve system operational readiness and life-cycle support. Currently, CIWS is supported by a Readiness Based Sparing Model that has drawn criticism from senior naval leaders for the operational availability (Ao) that it provides. We analyze data to derive a list of five “key offenders” parts that heavily impact operational availability of CIWS. We also analyze how improving the sparing of these “key offenders” can potentially improve operational availability. Additionally, we analyze the timing of actual failures in the fleet. This paper addresses CIWS operational readiness and life-cycle support while exploring whether other processes can be used to improve the operational readiness of U.S. Guided Missile Destroyers’ CIWS systems. The major findings of our research are as follows: first, that timing “luck” of failures accounted for a 7% difference between the worst-case scenario downtime and actual downtime. Second, that actual system availability was 86% of calendar days over fiscal years 2017 and 2018, exceeding NSWC’s Ao predictions. Third, that the top five “key offenders,” which these parts can potentially affect, account for a 3% improvement to operational downtime. Finally, that 10 of the 67 ships showed no downtime associated with CIWS, which could be a result of operational schedules., Acquisition Research Program, http://archive.org/details/ananalysisofcrit1094564188, Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy, Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy, Lieutenant, United States Navy