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Signal processing methodology was applied to forced-choice ESP data. This methodology, which has been used successfully in a variety of other scientific disciplines, appears to have yielded information about psi not available by classical methods. In the ESP experiments reported here, a form of cross correlation of guesses with targets revealed the presence of periodic maxima. Upon computing the number of matches between guesses and targets at all possible displacements, we found that most of the matches were in clusters that recurred regularly and periodically throughout the whole range of displacements. Fourier analyses of the cross correlations were performed to quantify the harmonic patterns. The power maxima were then compared to Monte Carlo simulations of the experiments. In the linear and circular correlation analyses of grouped data from selected subjects, the mean power was statistically significant (p [less than] .002 and p [less than] .001, respectively). We termed the observation of a significant harmonic pattern in the correlation of targets and guesses a "correlation wave." Also, two post hoc analyses of grouped data from unselected subjects revealed that only subjects with visual (rather than verbal) cognitive styles guessing high-imagery targets had significant or near-significant correlation waves (p [less than] .037 and p [less than] .063). Therefore, within the context of these experiments, guesses and targets were related in a meaningful way by wave functions, possibly suggesting the operation of a natural, lawful process. Psi has repeatedly been found to be unconstrained in ordinary ways by space, time, and causality. These properties of psi suggest that psi should appear as a pattern throughout the entire range of data rather than be locally confined to one or a few places in the data, as it is usually described. Our results suggest that psi may be an oscillatory correlational field, dependent upon or interacting with mental factors and target characteristics and capable of organizing information or even macroscopic objects in contextually meaningful ways., INTRODUCTION This study began with the serendipitous discovery of apparently nonrandom patterns in displaced ESP data gathered during a long-distance test of clairvoyance with Olof Jonsson, a selected subject who [...]

Parapsychological experiments conducted at the Stanford Research Institue and Science Applications International Corporation were sufficient in quantity but suffered from unclear parameters for the results to conclusively prove the existence of anomalous mental phenomena. Validation of the phenomena can be achieved by opening the research to more researchers and specifying stringent conditions and relationships between cause and effect so that replication experiments can be done to verify the phenomena., Jessica Utts and I were given the task of evaluating the program on "Anomalous Mental Phenomena" carried out at SRI International (formerly the Stanford Research Institute) from 1973 through 1989 [...]

The problem of validating a simulation model using statistical techniques is considered. Specifically, the Dutch Navy's naval mine hunting operation (HUNTOP) model for sonar searching at sea was validated via sensitivity analyses on a per module basis and for the model as a whole. The sensitivity analyses were carried out using experimental design theory, regression analysis and null-hypothesis tests of equal expectations for the simulated and real probabilities.

The use of signal processing and multiple hypotheses tests for determining the optimal position of vibration sensors within a group of distributed sensors used for knock detection in combustion engines is investigated. The approach, which involves the use of the bootstrap method for testing statistical hypotheses, is based on the estimation of in-cylinder pressure as a reference. Its application on a test bed with a four-cylinder engine is also discussed.

Dichotomous choice (DC) methods has been commonly applied to the contingent-valuation method. It is primarily based on the assumption that it produces incentive-compatible results. Three laboratory experiments have been designed to test the hypothesis that the hypothetical DC method will yield the same responses as the real DC method. A set of hypothetical and real DC questionnaires were prepared.

The problem of equivalence assessment of several treatments with a control is considered. The first approach uses a hypothesis testing formulation in which the alternative states global equivalence. With respect [...]

This article considers the application of two families of nonlinear autoregressive models, the logistic (LSTAR) and exponential (ESTAR) autoregressive models. This includes the specification of the model based on simple [...]

This article reviews the misuse of statistical tests in psychotherapy research studies published in the Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology in the years 1967-1968, 1977-1978, and 1987-1988. It focuses on 3 major problems in statistical practice: inappropriate uses of null hypothesis tests and p values, neglect of effect size, and inflation of Type I error rate. The impressive frequency of these problems is documented, and changes in statistical practices over the past 3 decades are interpreted in light of trends in psychotherapy research. The article concludes with practical suggestions for rational application of statistical tests.

When data are obtained by two-stage cluster sampling, serious problems can arise if conventional methods that ignore the intracluster correlations are used, Wu, Holt, and Holmes that the standard F [...]

A binary hypothesis-testing approach is employed to solve the problem of image detection at low-level illumination. A filtered point process or shot noise model is adopted for the photon measurements in the image plane. A one-dimensional test statistic which was derived by filtering and sampling the received image is used as an alternative to facilitate the computation of a likelihood ratio.

Author(s): Julia M. Haaf, Alexander Ly, Eric-Jan Wagenmakers Author Affiliations: Retire significance, but still test hypotheses We agree that arbitrarily branding experimental findings as significant or non-significant generates a false [...]

The latest techniques in econometrics are used to test the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), particularly the claim thatit works in countries with high inflation. Touted as one of the most controversial hypotheses in economics, PPP declares that the exchange rate between two currencies is determined, in equilibrium, by the relative price of the two countries. The study produced mixed results, depending on how the hypothesis is interpreted. However, it is concluded that PPP is accepted, at least, for Latin American countries which have had high inflation rates in the last several decades.

I used null hypotheses about basking behavior and body temperatures ([T.sub.b]) to evaluate the extent and effectiveness of behavioral temperature regulation in Anolis cristatellus and A. gundlachi. I sampled these species in January and August near the extremes of their altitudinal distributions in Puerto Rico. Hollow electroformed copper lizard models, randomly positioned within habitats occupied by the lizards, served as operative temperature ([T.sub.e]) thermometers, providing baseline predictions about basking rates and [T.sub.b] of nonthermoregulating lizards. Comparison of the basking behavior and [T.sub.b] of lizards to the basking rates and temperatures of the models provided unambiguous evidence of nonrandom thermoregulatory activity in some of the lizard populations. Although basking opportunities were similar in the habitats occupied by both species, basking rates differed markedly: A. cristatellus basked more frequently than did randomly positioned models, and its basking rates were higher at high elevation and in January; A. gundlachi used basking sites at random at both elevations in both months. In addition, A. cristatellus limited its activity, particularly at high elevation, to times when operative temperatures were relatively high or basking sites were available (i.e., sunny weather). As a result of its opportunistic basking activity, mean [T.sub.b] of A. cristatellus was often elevated above mean [T.sub.e], and A. cristatellus populations experienced only limited variation of mean [T.sub.b], with elevation and season. In contrast, A. gundlachi mean [T.sub.b] approximated mean [T.sub.e], and the [T.sub.b] of A. gundlachi varied more with elevation and season. Mean [T.sub.b] in A. cristatellus was always higher than the mean [T.sub.b] of A. gundlachi at every elevation and month combination. The data also suggest that the low [T.sub.b] experienced by A. gundlachi at high elevation might dramatically reduce sprinting ability, whereas the [T.sub.b] experienced by A. cristatellus allows a majority of lizards at high elevation to sprint quickly.

For the two-way analysis of variance without the assumption of zero interactions, consider the following recommendation: Test the zero-interactions hypothesis and, if the hypothesis is not rejected, proceed as if the interactions were zero. This recommendation is unwarranted and may give incorrect decisions with a large probability, as has been pointed out in several articles beginning in the year 1935. Despite such isolated criticism, it is a recommendation suggested in most applied books in the field and used in countless applications. An apology for the recommendation is that it can be easily improved by considering the power of the test and thus obtaining information on the interactions neglected. We consider this improved recommendation for the goals of (i) an interval estimate of one of the cell expectations, (ii) a simultaneous interval estimate of the cell expectations, and (iii) an estimate of the cell with the largest expectation. We show that the improved recommendation leads to methods inferior to methods based on the replacement of the two-way model by the one-way model in cases (ii) and (iii) and to a method not better in case (i). This refutes the apology for the original unwarranted recommendation: the improved recommendation is not easy to apply and does not always lead to good methods. KEY WORDS: Cell expectations; Interval estimates; Statistical tests; Zero interactions., 1. SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION We consider the two-way analysis of variance with independent normal ([[mu].sub.ij], 1) random variables [Y.sub.ij] for i = 1, ..., I, j = 1, ..., J. [...]

We propose a new model of cooperators' advantage depending neither on supplementary incentives nor on cooperators' capacity to recognize, and play selectively with, other cooperators. It depends, rather, on players' making the play-no play decision by the heuristic of projecting their own 'cooperate-defect' choices onto potential partners. Cooperators offer to play more often, and fellow cooperators will more often accept their offer. When certain boundary conditions are met, this results in a higher expected payoff for cooperators than for defectors. Empirical support for this heuristic is suggested by expectations data from related social dilemma experiments. Moreover, its use can be justified in Bayesean terms. Our model brings behavioral decision theory's 'cognitive miser' paradigm to bear on itnerdisciplinary concern with the evolution of cooperative behavior and shows how, if other mechanisms provide a suitable 'initial kick,' cooperation can evolve in the absence of iteration and in large, mobile societies.

Indirect measures of psychological constructs are vital to clinical research. On occasion, however, the meaning of indirect meausres of psychological constructs is obfuscated by statistical procedures that do not account for the complex relations between items and latent variables and among latent variables. Covariance structure analysis (CSA) is a statistical procedure for testing hypotheses about the relations among items that indirectly measure a psychological construct and relations among psychological constructs. This article clinical researchers to the strengths and limitations of CSA as a statistical procedure for conceving and testing structural hypotheses that are not tested adequately with other statistical procedures. The article is organized around two empirical examples that illustrate the use of CSA for evaluating measurement models with correlated error terms, higher-oder factors, and measured and latent variables.

JEL Classifications MOO * M13 The purpose of this research is to investigate the influence of board structure and diversity on underpricing in the initial public offering (IPO) process. Relying [...]

This article presents nonparametric methods for testing the hypothesis that duration data can be represented by a mixture of exponential distributions. Both Bayesian and classical tests are developed. A variety of apparently distinct models can be written in mixture of exponentials form. This raises a fundamental identification problem. A consistent estimator for the number of points of support of a discrete mixture is developed. A consistent method-of-moments estimator for the mixing distribution is derived from the testing criteria and is evaluated in a Monte Carlo study. KEY WORDS: Duration model; Mixing models; Method-of-moments estimator for mixing distribution., 1. INTRODUCTION The assumption that empirical distributions are mixtures of underlying exponential distributions is widely invoked in applied science and social science (Everitt and Hand 1981). In the context of [...]

Test statistics for evaluating the significance of added variables in a regression equation are developed for mixed Poisson models, where the structural parameter [empty set] that determines the mean/variance relationship var([mu], [empty set]) = [mu] + [empty set] . [[mu].sup.2] is estimated by the method of moments and the regression coefficients are estimated by quasi-likelihood. The formulas presented for test statistics and related estimating equations are applicable generally to quasi-likelihood models specified by an arbitrary mean value function [mu] (x; [beta]), together with a variance function V([mu]; [empty set]) that contains one or more unknown parameters. Two versions of the Wald and score tests are investigated--one calculated from the usual model-based covariance matrix whose validity depends on correct specification of the variance function, and another using an 'empirical' covariance matrix that has a more general asymptotic justification. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that the quasi-likelihood/method of moments {QL/M) procedures yield approximately unbiased estimates of regression coefficients and their standard errors and that model-based Wald, score, and deviance tests approximate the nominal size at the 5% level for moderate sample sizes. The simpler Poisson analysis also produces approximately unbiased regression coefficients, even though the overdispersion is not accounted for. Although tests and standard errors based on Poisson theory are seriously in error in the presence of overdispersion, the empirical standard errors and especially the empirical score test obtained in conjunction with the Poisson analysis perform reasonably well with overdispersed data provided the sample size is sufficiently large. They perform less well in small samples than do the model-based QL/M procedures, probably because of the lack of precision in the empirical variances. These methods have important applications in epidemiology, toxicology, and related areas. KEY WORDS: Generalized linear model; Method of moments; Model misspecification; Negative binomial; Score test; Wald test., 1. INTRODUCTION Regression analysis of count data using maximum likelihood techniques based on the Poisson distribution (Frome, Kutner, and Beauchamp 1973) is increasingly used in toxicology (Stead, Hasselblad, Creason, and [...]

I consider the problem of testing bivariate symmetry in matched-pair experiments where the observations are subject to univariate censoring. Thus the observable random variables are given by ([y.sub.1], [y.sub.2]) and ([[delta].sub.1], [[delta].sub.2]), where [Y.sub.j] = min([X.sub.j] C) and [[delta].sub.j] = I([X.sub.j] [less than or equal to] C) (j = 1, 2). Here ([X.sub.1], [X.sub.2] ) is a random pair of partially observable lifetimes and C is a fixed or random censoring variable. The hypothesis to be tested is that ([X.sub.2], [X.sub.2]) and ([X.sub.2], [X.sub.1]) have the same distribution. Following Woolson and Lachcnbruch (1980), I consider censored data generalizations of signed-rank tests such as the sign, signed Wilcoxon, and signed-normal scores tests. I derive the asymptotic distribution of these test statistics under fixed and contiguous alternatives. The efficiencies of the signed-rank tests are considered in a log-linear model and compared with efficiencies of the paired Prentice-Wilcoxon and log-rank tests. KEY WORDS: Bivariate symmetry; Censored data; Paired-rank tests., 1. INTRODUCTION I consider the problem of testing whether ([X.sub.1i], [X.sub.2i]) has the same distribution as ([X.sub.2i], [X.sub.1i]) (i = 1, ..., n), where ([X.sub.1i] [X.sub.2i]) are iid nonnegative bivariate [...]

This paper investigates the small sample properties of Hansen and Singleton (1982, Econometrica 50, 1269-1286)-type GMM tests of asset pricing restrictions implied by Epstein and Zin (1989, Econometrica 57, 937-969) preferences. The Monte Carlo results suggest that tests of the Epstein and Zin (1989, Econometrica 57, 937-969) asset pricing model often have little size-adjusted power to reject asset pricing restrictions implied by simpler, time and state separable expected utility preferences, even when parameters are chosen to make the difference between the relative risk aversion parameter and the reciprocal of the intertemporal substitution parameter large. There is evidence that a Wald test has greater power than other tests and that use of the Hansen et al. (1996, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 14, 262-280) continuous-updating GMM estimator improves the power of the tests.

In two-hypothesis detection problems with i.i.d. observations, the minimum error probability decays exponentially with the amount of data, with the constant in the exponent equal to the Chernoff distance between the probability distributions characterizing the hypotheses. We extend this result to the general M-hypothesis Bayesian detection problem where zero cost is assigned to correct decisions, and find that the Bayesian cost function's exponential decay constant equals the minimum Chernoff distance among all distinct pairs of hypothesized probability distributions. Index Terms - Detection theory, multiple hypothesis testing, asymptotic performance, Chernoff distance.

The Fisher-inspired, arbitrary intersexual selection models of Lande and Kirkpatrick, including both stable and unstable equilibrium conditions which provide the appropriate null model for the evolution of traits and preferences by intersexual selection is discussed. Incorporation of the LK null into intersexual selection would contribute significantly to serious examination of the extent to which natural selection on preferences shapes signals.

We propose a set of algorithms for testing the ergodicity of empirical time series, without reliance on a specific parametric framework. It is shown that the resulting test asymptotically obtains the correct size for stationary and nonstationary processes, and maximal power against non-ergodic but stationary alternatives. The test will not reject in the presence of nonstationarity that does not lead to ergodic failure. The method is used to investigate debates over stability of monetary aggregates relative to GDP, and the mean reversion hypothesis with respect to high frequency data on exchange rates. Both the Monte Carlo and data analysis results suggest that the test has good size and power performance. [C] 2001 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved. JEL classification: C12; C13; C14; C15; C22 Keywords: Time series analysis; Ergodicity; Short memory in mean; Hypothesis testing; Simulation-based testing

This paper describes a method for the design of discrete-time model matching control systems for a multivariable plant with measurement noise. This method uses a new parametrization for model matching controllers. Simulation results are presented which confirm the validity of the design method. Index Terms--Discrete-time systems, exact model matching, linear multivariable systems, measurement noise, polynomial matrix approach.

Spatial 'drift' in linear model coefficients is modeled using a geographically weighted regression (GWR) method. An extended GWR model is developed by introducing analytically obtained significance tests that permit a null hypothesis of no spatial parameter drift to be analyzed; by discussing 'mixed' GWR models in which some parameters are fixed globally but others differ geographically; and by considering a way of determining the degree of parameter smoothing employed in GWR based on the Mallows Cp statistic. By applying these approaches, data on house prices in Kent in UK are examined.

The results from a novel advanced statistical test conducted in four countries to study benefits transfer of willingness to pay estimates and the resultant effect on reducing health risks is examined.