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Recent studies have provided insights into the pathogenesis of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)1–4. However, the longitudinal immunological correlates of disease outcome remain unclear. Here we serially analysed immune responses in 113 patients with moderate or severe COVID-19. Immune profiling revealed an overall increase in innate cell lineages, with a concomitant reduction in T cell number. An early elevation in cytokine levels was associated with worse disease outcomes. Following an early increase in cytokines, patients with moderate COVID-19 displayed a progressive reduction in type 1 (antiviral) and type 3 (antifungal) responses. By contrast, patients with severe COVID-19 maintained these elevated responses throughout the course of the disease. Moreover, severe COVID-19 was accompanied by an increase in multiple type 2 (anti-helminths) effectors, including interleukin-5 (IL-5), IL-13, immunoglobulin E and eosinophils. Unsupervised clustering analysis identified four immune signatures, representing growth factors (A), type-2/3 cytokines (B), mixed type-1/2/3 cytokines (C), and chemokines (D) that correlated with three distinct disease trajectories. The immune profiles of patients who recovered from moderate COVID-19 were enriched in tissue reparative growth factor signature A, whereas the profiles of those with who developed severe disease had elevated levels of all four signatures. Thus, we have identified a maladapted immune response profile associated with severe COVID-19 and poor clinical outcome, as well as early immune signatures that correlate with divergent disease trajectories.

Background: Long COVID contributes to the global burden of disease. Proposed root cause hypotheses include the persistence of SARS-CoV-2 viral reservoir, autoimmunity, and reactivation of latent herpesviruses. Patients have reported various changes in Long COVID symptoms after COVID-19 vaccinations, leaving uncertainty about whether vaccine-induced immune responses may alleviate or worsen disease pathology., Methods: In this prospective study, we evaluated changes in symptoms and immune responses after COVID-19 vaccination in 16 vaccine-naïve individuals with Long COVID. Surveys were administered before vaccination and then at 2, 6, and 12 weeks after receiving the first vaccine dose of the primary series. Simultaneously, SARS-CoV-2-reactive TCR enrichment, SARS-CoV-2-specific antibody responses, antibody responses to other viral and self-antigens, and circulating cytokines were quantified before vaccination and at 6 and 12 weeks after vaccination., Results: Self-report at 12 weeks post-vaccination indicated 10 out of 16 participants had improved health, 3 had no change, 1 had worse health, and 2 reported marginal changes. Significant elevation in SARS-CoV-2-specific TCRs and Spike protein-specific IgG were observed 6 and 12 weeks after vaccination. No changes in reactivities were observed against herpes viruses and self-antigens. Within this dataset, higher baseline sIL-6R was associated with symptom improvement, and the two top features associated with non-improvement were high IFN-β and CNTF, among soluble analytes., Conclusions: Our study showed that in this small sample, vaccination improved the health or resulted in no change to the health of most participants, though few experienced worsening. Vaccination was associated with increased SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein-specific IgG and T cell expansion in most individuals with Long COVID. Symptom improvement was observed in those with baseline elevated sIL-6R, while elevated interferon and neuropeptide levels were associated with a lack of improvement.

The immune response to SARS-CoV-2 for patients with altered immunity such as hematologic malignancies and autoimmune disease may differ substantially from that in general population. These patients remain at high risk despite wide-spread adoption of vaccination. It is critical to examine the differences at the systems level between the general population and the patients with altered immunity in terms of immunologic and serological responses to COVID-19 infection and vaccination. Here, we developed a novel microfluidic chip for high-plex immuno-serological assay to simultaneously measure up to 50 plasma or serum samples for up to 50 soluble markers including 35 plasma proteins, 11 anti-spike/RBD IgG antibodies spanning all major variants, and controls. Our assay demonstrated the quintuplicate test in a single run with high throughput, low sample volume input, high reproducibility and high accuracy. It was applied to the measurement of 1,012 blood samples including in-depth analysis of sera from 127 patients and 21 healthy donors over multiple time points, either with acute COVID infection or vaccination. The protein association matrix analysis revealed distinct immune mediator protein modules that exhibited a reduced degree of diversity in protein-protein cooperation in patients with hematologic malignancies and patients with autoimmune disorders receiving B cell depletion therapy. Serological analysis identified that COVID infected patients with hematologic malignancies display impaired anti-RBD antibody response despite high level of anti-spike IgG, which could be associated with limited clonotype diversity and functional deficiency in B cells and was further confirmed by single-cell BCR and transcriptome sequencing. These findings underscore the importance to individualize immunization strategy for these high-risk patients and provide an informative tool to monitor their responses at the systems level.

SARS-CoV-2 remdesivir resistance mutations have been generated in vitro but have not been reported in patients receiving treatment with the antiviral agent. We present a case of an immunocompromised patient with acquired B-cell deficiency who developed an indolent, protracted course of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Remdesivir therapy alleviated symptoms and produced a transient virologic response, but her course was complicated by recrudescence of high-grade viral shedding. Whole genome sequencing identified a mutation, E802D, in the nsp12 RNA-dependent RNA polymerase, which was not present in pre-treatment specimens. In vitro experiments demonstrated that the mutation conferred a ∼6-fold increase in remdesivir IC50 but resulted in a fitness cost in the absence of remdesivir. Sustained clinical and virologic response was achieved after treatment with casirivimab-imdevimab. Although the fitness cost observed in vitro may limit the risk posed by E802D, this case illustrates the importance of monitoring for remdesivir resistance and the potential benefit of combinatorial therapies in immunocompromised patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Objective: Real-world data have been critical for rapid-knowledge generation throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. To ensure high-quality results are delivered to guide clinical decision making and the public health response, as well as characterize the response to interventions, it is essential to establish the accuracy of COVID-19 case definitions derived from administrative data to identify infections and hospitalizations., Methods: Electronic Health Record (EHR) data were obtained from the clinical data warehouse of the Yale New Haven Health System (Yale, primary site) and 3 hospital systems of the Mayo Clinic (validation site). Detailed characteristics on demographics, diagnoses, and laboratory results were obtained for all patients with either a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR or antigen test or ICD-10 diagnosis of COVID-19 (U07.1) between April 1, 2020 and March 1, 2021. Various computable phenotype definitions were evaluated for their accuracy to identify SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 hospitalizations., Results: Of the 69,423 individuals with either a diagnosis code or a laboratory diagnosis of a SARS-CoV-2 infection at Yale, 61,023 had a principal or a secondary diagnosis code for COVID-19 and 50,355 had a positive SARS-CoV-2 test. Among those with a positive laboratory test, 38,506 (76.5%) and 3449 (6.8%) had a principal and secondary diagnosis code of COVID-19, respectively, while 8400 (16.7%) had no COVID-19 diagnosis. Moreover, of the 61,023 patients with a COVID-19 diagnosis code, 19,068 (31.2%) did not have a positive laboratory test for SARS-CoV-2 in the EHR. Of the 20 cases randomly sampled from this latter group for manual review, all had a COVID-19 diagnosis code related to asymptomatic testing with negative subsequent test results. The positive predictive value (precision) and sensitivity (recall) of a COVID-19 diagnosis in the medical record for a documented positive SARS-CoV-2 test were 68.8% and 83.3%, respectively. Among 5,109 patients who were hospitalized with a principal diagnosis of COVID-19, 4843 (94.8%) had a positive SARS-CoV-2 test within the 2 weeks preceding hospital admission or during hospitalization. In addition, 789 hospitalizations had a secondary diagnosis of COVID-19, of which 446 (56.5%) had a principal diagnosis consistent with severe clinical manifestation of COVID-19 (e.g., sepsis or respiratory failure). Compared with the cohort that had a principal diagnosis of COVID-19, those with a secondary diagnosis had a more than 2-fold higher in-hospital mortality rate (13.2% vs 28.0%, P<0.001). In the validation sample at Mayo Clinic, diagnosis codes more consistently identified SARS-CoV-2 infection (precision of 95%) but had lower recall (63.5%) with substantial variation across the 3 Mayo Clinic sites. Similar to Yale, diagnosis codes consistently identified COVID-19 hospitalizations at Mayo, with hospitalizations defined by secondary diagnosis code with 2-fold higher in-hospital mortality compared to those with a primary diagnosis of COVID-19., Conclusions: COVID-19 diagnosis codes misclassified the SARS-CoV-2 infection status of many people, with implications for clinical research and epidemiological surveillance. Moreover, the codes had different performance across two academic health systems and identified groups with different risks of mortality. Real-world data from the EHR can be used to in conjunction with diagnosis codes to improve the identification of people infected with SARS-CoV-2.

While several clinical and immunological parameters correlate with disease severity and mortality in SARS-CoV-2 infection, work remains in identifying unifying correlates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) that can be used to guide clinical practice. Here, we examine saliva and nasopharyngeal (NP) viral load over time and correlate them with patient demographics, and cellular and immune profiling. We found that saliva viral load was significantly higher in those with COVID-19 risk factors; that it correlated with increasing levels of disease severity and showed a superior ability over nasopharyngeal viral load as a predictor of mortality over time (AUC=0.90). A comprehensive analysis of immune factors and cell subsets revealed strong predictors of high and low saliva viral load, which were associated with increased disease severity or better overall outcomes, respectively. Saliva viral load was positively associated with many known COVID-19 inflammatory markers such as IL-6, IL-18, IL-10, and CXCL10, as well as type 1 immune response cytokines. Higher saliva viral loads strongly correlated with the progressive depletion of platelets, lymphocytes, and effector T cell subsets including circulating follicular CD4 T cells (cTfh). Anti-spike (S) and anti-receptor binding domain (RBD) IgG levels were negatively correlated with saliva viral load showing a strong temporal association that could help distinguish severity and mortality in COVID-19. Finally, patients with fatal COVID-19 exhibited higher viral loads, which correlated with the depletion of cTfh cells, and lower production of anti-RBD and anti-S IgG levels. Together these results demonstrated that viral load - as measured by saliva but not nasopharyngeal - is a dynamic unifying correlate of disease presentation, severity, and mortality over time., Competing Interests: Competing interests: AI served as a consultant for Spring Discovery and Adaptive Biotechnologies.

Recent studies have provided insights into innate and adaptive immune dynamics in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Yet, the exact feature of antibody responses that governs COVID-19 disease outcomes remain unclear. Here, we analysed humoral immune responses in 209 asymptomatic, mild, moderate and severe COVID-19 patients over time to probe the nature of antibody responses in disease severity and mortality. We observed a correlation between anti-Spike (S) IgG levels, length of hospitalization and clinical parameters associated with worse clinical progression. While high anti-S IgG levels correlated with worse disease severity, such correlation was time-dependent. Deceased patients did not have higher overall humoral response than live discharged patients. However, they mounted a robust, yet delayed response, measured by anti-S, anti-RBD IgG, and neutralizing antibody (NAb) levels, compared to survivors. Delayed seroconversion kinetics correlated with impaired viral control in deceased patients. Finally, while sera from 89% of patients displayed some neutralization capacity during their disease course, NAb generation prior to 14 days of disease onset emerged as a key factor for recovery. These data indicate that COVID-19 mortality does not correlate with the cross-sectional antiviral antibody levels per se , but rather with the delayed kinetics of NAb production., Competing Interests: Competing interests: AI served as a consultant for Spring Discovery and Adaptive Biotechnologies.

Objective: Severe acute respiratory syndrome virus (SARS-CoV-2) has infected millions of people worldwide. Our goal was to identify risk factors associated with admission and disease severity in patients with SARS-CoV-2., Design: This was an observational, retrospective study based on real-world data for 7,995 patients with SARS-CoV-2 from a clinical data repository., Setting: Yale New Haven Health (YNHH) is a five-hospital academic health system serving a diverse patient population with community and teaching facilities in both urban and suburban areas., Populations: The study included adult patients who had SARS-CoV-2 testing at YNHH between March 1 and April 30, 2020., Main Outcome and Performance Measures: Primary outcomes were admission and in-hospital mortality for patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection as determined by RT-PCR testing. We also assessed features associated with the need for respiratory support., Results: Of the 28605 patients tested for SARS-CoV-2, 7995 patients (27.9%) had an infection (median age 52.3 years) and 2154 (26.9%) of these had an associated admission (median age 66.2 years). Of admitted patients, 2152 (99.9%) had a discharge disposition at the end of the study period. Of these, 329 (15.3%) required invasive mechanical ventilation and 305 (14.2%) expired. Increased age and male sex were positively associated with admission and in-hospital mortality (median age 80.7 years), while comorbidities had a much weaker association with the risk of admission or mortality. Black race (OR 1.43, 95%CI 1.14-1.78) and Hispanic ethnicity (OR 1.81, 95%CI 1.50-2.18) were identified as risk factors for admission, but, among discharged patients, age-adjusted in-hospital mortality was not significantly different among racial and ethnic groups., Conclusions: This observational study identified, among people testing positive for SARSCoV-2 infection, older age and male sex as the most strongly associated risks for admission and in-hospital mortality in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection. While minority racial and ethnic groups had increased burden of disease and risk of admission, age-adjusted in-hospital mortality for discharged patients was not significantly different among racial and ethnic groups. Ongoing studies will be needed to continue to evaluate these risks, particularly in the setting of evolving treatment guidelines., Competing Interests: Competing Interests H.M.K. works under contract with the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services to support quality measurement programs; was a recipient of a research grant, through Yale, from Medtronic and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to develop methods for post-market surveillance of medical devices; was a recipient of a research grant from Johnson & Johnson, through Yale University, to support clinical trial data sharing; was a recipient of a research agreement, through Yale University, from the Shenzhen Center for Health Information for work to advance intelligent disease prevention and health promotion; collaborates with the National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases in Beijing; receives payment from the Arnold & Porter Law Firm for work related to the Sanofi clopidogrel litigation, from the Martin Baughman Law Firm for work related to the Cook Celect IVC filter litigation, and from the Siegfried and Jensen Law Firm for work related to Vioxx litigation; chairs a Cardiac Scientific Advisory Board for UnitedHealth; was a member of the IBM Watson Health Life Sciences Board; is a member of the Advisory Board for Element Science, the Advisory Board for Facebook, and the Physician Advisory Board for Aetna; and is the co-founder of HugoHealth, a personal health information platform, and co-founder of Refactor Health, a healthcare AI-augmented data management company. W.L.S. was an investigator for a research agreement, through Yale University, from the Shenzhen Center for Health Information for work to advance intelligent disease prevention and health promotion; collaborates with the National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases in Beijing; is a technical consultant to HugoHealth, a personal health information platform, and cofounder of Refactor Health, an AI-augmented data management platform for healthcare; is a consultant for Interpace Diagnostics Group, a molecular diagnostics company.

A growing body of evidence indicates sex differences in the clinical outcomes of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) 1-4 . However, whether immune responses against SARS-CoV-2 differ between sexes, and whether such differences explain male susceptibility to COVID-19, is currently unknown. In this study, we examined sex differences in viral loads, SARS-CoV-2-specific antibody titers, plasma cytokines, as well as blood cell phenotyping in COVID-19 patients. By focusing our analysis on patients with mild to moderate disease who had not received immunomodulatory medications, our results revealed that male patients had higher plasma levels of innate immune cytokines and chemokines including IL-8, IL-18, and CCL5, along with more robust induction of non-classical monocytes. In contrast, female patients mounted significantly more robust T cell activation than male patients during SARS-CoV-2 infection, which was sustained in old age. Importantly, we found that a poor T cell response negatively correlated with patients' age and was predictive of worse disease outcome in male patients, but not in female patients. Conversely, higher innate immune cytokines in female patients associated with worse disease progression, but not in male patients. These findings reveal a possible explanation underlying observed sex biases in COVID-19, and provide important basis for the development of sex-based approach to the treatment and care of men and women with COVID-19., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest statement All authors declare no competing interests.