51. An uncertainty estimate of the prevalence of stunting in national surveys: the need for better precision
- Author
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Nirupama Shivakumar, Harshpal Singh Sachdev, Tinku Thomas, Anura V Kurpad, Sulagna Bandyopadhyay, and Santu Ghosh
- Subjects
medicine.medical_specialty ,Population ,Height-for-age ,World health ,Demographic health survey (DHS) ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Uncertainty estimate ,030225 pediatrics ,Peru ,Epidemiology ,Statistics ,Prevalence ,Humans ,Medicine ,Overdisperion ,030212 general & internal medicine ,Child ,education ,Growth Disorders ,education.field_of_study ,Stunting ,High prevalence ,business.industry ,Public health ,National Family Health Survey-4 (NFHS-4) ,lcsh:Public aspects of medicine ,Uncertainty ,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health ,lcsh:RA1-1270 ,WHO multicentre growth reference study (MGRS) ,Health Surveys ,Body Height ,Scale (social sciences) ,Egypt ,WHO child growth standard ,Biostatistics ,business ,Research Article - Abstract
Background Stunting is determined by using the World Health Organization (WHO) child growth standard which was developed using precise measurements. However, it is unlikely that large scale surveys maintain the same level of rigour and precision when measuring the height of children. The population measure of stunting in children is sensitive to over-dispersion, and the high prevalence of stunting observed in surveys in low and middle-income countries (LMIC) could partly be due to lower measurement precison. Objectives To quantify the incongruence in the dispersion of height-for-age in national surveys of Methods An uncertainty factor was proposed and measured from the observed incongruence in dispersion of the height-for-age of Results The uncertainty factor was estimated for 17 LMICs. This ranged from 0.9 to 2.1 for Peru and Egypt respectively (reference value 1). As an explicit country example, the dispersion of height-for-age in the Indian National Family Health Survey-4 test dataset was 39% higher than the MGRS study, with an uncertainty factor of 1.39. From this, the uncertainty-adjusted Indian national stunting prevalence estimate reduced to 18.7% from the unadjusted estimate of 36.2%. Conclusions This study proposes a robust statistical method to estimate uncertainty in stunting prevalence estimates due to incongruent dispersions of height measured in national surveys for children
- Published
- 2020