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51. Morphometric brain changes during aging: Results from a Brazilian necropsy sample.

Author

Ferretti, Renata Eloah de Lucena, Jacob-Filho, Wilson, Grinberg, Lea Tenenholz, Leite, Renata Elaine Paraízo, Farfel, José Marcelo, Suemoto, Claudia Kimie, Saldiva, Paulo Hilário Nascimento, Rosemberg, Sérgio, Pasqualucci, Carlos Augusto, and Nitrini, Ricardo

Subjects
aging, brain/anatomy, cephalometry
Abstract

The present study aimed to establish the morphometric brain changes during aging in a necropsy series from Brazil and determine whether sexual dimorphisms interfere in these changes. Methods:A cross-sectional study was conducted at the São Paulo Autopsy Service in Brazil where, after informed consent, data was gathered from next of kin interview with reference to clinical status prior to death. Brain weight, volume and density measurements were taken and then adjusted for head circumference. Descriptive statistics and tests of hypothesis and correlations were applied, considering a p-value of 0.05. Results:414 subjects, mostly men (60.4%), with a mean age of 67.1 years, were included. The mean brain weight of the sample was 1219.2g±140.9and mean volume was 1217mL±152.3. The mean brain density of the sample was 1.0g/mL±0.09. Values differed between males and females in terms of weight and volume. Brain weight decreased during aging by about 45g per decade (r= -0.300; p

Published
2010

52. Post-Mortem diagnosis of dementia by informant interview.

Author

Ferretti, Renata Eloah de Lucena, Damin, Antonio Eduardo, Brucki, Sonia Maria Dozzi, Morillo, Lilian Schafirovits, Perroco, Tibor Rilho, Campora, Flávia, Moreira, Eliza Guccione, Balbino, Érika Silvério, Lima, Maria do Carmo de Ascenção, Battela, Camila, Ruiz, Lumena, Grinberg, Lea Tenenholz, Farfel, José Marcelo, Leite, Renata Elaine Paraiso, Suemoto, Claudia Kimie, Pasqualucci, Carlos Augusto, Rosemberg, Sérgio, Saldiva, Paulo Hilário Nascimento, Jacob-Filho, Wilson, and Nitrini, Ricardo

Subjects
aging, brain bank, dementia, informant-interview, postmortem diagnosis
Abstract

The diagnosis of normal cognition or dementia in the Brazilian Brain Bank of the Aging Brain Study Group (BBBABSG) has relied on postmortem interview with an informant. Objectives:To ascertain the sensitivity and specificity of postmortem diagnosis based on informant interview compared against the diagnosis established at a memory clinic. Methods:A prospective study was conducted at the BBBABSG and at the Reference Center for Cognitive Disorders (RCCD), a specialized memory clinic of the Hospital das Clínicas, University of São Paulo Medical School. Control subjects and cognitively impaired subjects were referred from the Hospital das Clínicas to the RCCD where subjects and their informants were assessed. The same informant was then interviewed at the BBBABSG. Specialists' panel consensus, in each group, determined the final diagnosis of the case, blind to other center's diagnosis. Data was compared for frequency of diagnostic equivalence. For this study, the diagnosis established at the RCCD was accepted as the gold standard. Sensitivity and specificity were computed. Results:Ninety individuals were included, 45 with dementia and 45 without dementia (26 cognitively normal and 19 cognitively impaired but non-demented). The informant interview at the BBBABSG had a sensitivity of 86.6% and specificity of 84.4% for the diagnosis of dementia, and a sensitivity of 65.3% and specificity of 93.7% for the diagnosis of normal cognition. Conclusions:The informant interview used at the BBBABSG has a high specificity and sensitivity for the diagnosis of dementia as well as a high specificity for the diagnosis of normal cognition.

Published
2010

53. Short-term exposure to air pollution (PM2.5) induces hypothalamic inflammation, and long-term leads to leptin resistance and obesity via Tlr4/Ikbke in mice

Author

Campolim, Clara Machado, Weissmann, Lais, Ferreira, Clílton Kraüss de Oliveira, Zordão, Olivia Pizetta, Dornellas, Ana Paula Segantine, de Castro, Gisele, Zanotto, Tamires Marques, Boico, Vitor Ferreira, Quaresma, Paula Gabriele Fernandes, Lima, Raquel Patrícia Ataíde, Donato, Jr, Jose, Veras, Mariana Matera, Saldiva, Paulo Hilário Nascimento, Kim, Young-Bum, and Prada, Patricia Oliveira

Published
2020
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54. Nrf2 positively regulates autophagy antioxidant response in human bronchial epithelial cells exposed to diesel exhaust particles

Author

Frias, Daniela Perroni, Gomes, Raquel Labiapari Nunes, Yoshizaki, Kelly, Carvalho-Oliveira, Regiani, Matsuda, Monique, Junqueira, Mara de Souza, Teodoro, Walcy Rosolia, Vasconcellos, Pérola de Castro, Pereira, Daniela Cristina de Almeida, Conceição, Paulo Roberto da, Saldiva, Paulo Hilário Nascimento, Mauad, Thais, and Macchione, Mariangela

Published
2020
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55. Origin of the São Paulo Yellow Fever epidemic of 2017–2018 revealed through molecular epidemiological analysis of fatal cases

Author

Cunha, Marielton dos Passos, Duarte-Neto, Amaro Nunes, Pour, Shahab Zaki, Ortiz-Baez, Ayda Susana, Černý, Jiří, Pereira, Bárbara Brito de Souza, Braconi, Carla Torres, Ho, Yeh-Li, Perondi, Beatriz, Sztajnbok, Jaques, Alves, Venancio Avancini Ferreira, Dolhnikoff, Marisa, Holmes, Edward C., Saldiva, Paulo Hilário Nascimento, and Zanotto, Paolo Marinho de Andrade

Published
2019
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56. Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios

Author

Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria, Guo, Yuming, Sera, Francesco, Huber, Veronika, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, Mitchell, Dann, Tong, Shilu, Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio, Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento, Lavigne, Eric, Correa, Patricia Matus, Ortega, Nicolas Valdes, Kan, Haidong, Osorio, Samuel, Kyselý, Jan, Urban, Aleš, Jaakkola, Jouni J. K., Ryti, Niilo R. I., Pascal, Mathilde, Goodman, Patrick G., Zeka, Ariana, Michelozzi, Paola, Scortichini, Matteo, Hashizume, Masahiro, Honda, Yasushi, Hurtado-Diaz, Magali, Cruz, Julio, Seposo, Xerxes, Kim, Ho, Tobias, Aurelio, Íñiguez, Carmen, Forsberg, Bertil, Åström, Daniel Oudin, Ragettli, Martina S., Röösli, Martin, Guo, Yue Leon, Wu, Chang-fu, Zanobetti, Antonella, Schwartz, Joel, Bell, Michelle L., Dang, Tran Ngoc, Do Van, Dung, Heaviside, Clare, Vardoulakis, Sotiris, Hajat, Shakoor, Haines, Andy, Armstrong, Ben, Ebi, Kristie L., and Gasparrini, Antonio

Published
2018
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58. Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with cold spells during 2000–19: a three-stage modelling study

Author

Gao, Yuan, Huang, Wenzhong, Zhao, Qi, Ryti, Niilo, Armstrong, Ben, Gasparrini, Antonio, Tong, Shilu, Pascal, Mathilde, Urban, Aleš, Zeka, Ariana, Lavigne, Eric, Madureira, Joana, Goodman, Patrick, Huber, Veronika, Forsberg, Bertil, Kyselý, Jan, Sera, Francesco, Guo, Yuming, Li, Shanshan, Gao, Yuan, Huang, Wenzhong, Zhao, Qi, Ryti, Niilo, Armstrong, Ben, Gasparrini, Antonio, Tong, Shilu, Pascal, Mathilde, Urban, Aleš, Zeka, Ariana, Lavigne, Eric, Madureira, Joana, Goodman, Patrick, Huber, Veronika, Forsberg, Bertil, Kyselý, Jan, Sera, Francesco, Bell, Michelle, Hales, Simon, Honda, Yasushi, Jaakkola, Jouni J.K., Tobias, Aurelio, Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria, Abrutzky, Rosana, Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio, Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento, Correa, Patricia Matus, Ortega, Nicolás Valdés, Kan, Haidong, Osorio, Samuel, Roye, Dominic, Orru, Hans, Indermitte, Ene, Schneider, Alexandra, Katsouyanni, Klea, Analitis, Antonis, Carlsen, Hanne Krage, Mayvaneh, Fatemeh, Roradeh, Hematollah, Raz, Raanan, Michelozzi, Paola, de'Donato, Francesca, Hashizume, Masahiro, Kim, Yoonhee, Alahmad, Barrak, Cauchy, John Paul, Diaz, Magali Hurtado, Arellano, Eunice Elizabeth Félix, Valencia, César De la Cruz, Overcenco, Ala, Houthuijs, Danny, Ameling, Caroline, Rao, Shilpa, Carrasco, Gabriel, Seposo, Xerxes, Chua, Paul Lester Carlos, Silva, Susana das Neves Pereira da, Nunes, Baltazar, Holobaca, Iulian-Horia, Cvijanovic, Ivana, Mistry, Malcolm, Scovronick, Noah, Acquaotta, Fiorella, Kim, Ho, Lee, Whanhee, Íñiguez, Carmen, Åström, Christofer, Ragettli, Martina S., Guo, Yue Leon, Pan, Shih-Chun, Colistro, Valentina, Zanobetti, Antonella, Schwartz, Joel, Dang, Tran Ngoc, Dung, Do Van, Guo, Yuming, and Li, Shanshan

Abstract

Exposure to cold spells is associated with mortality. However, little is known about the global mortality burden of cold spells.

Published
2024
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59. Seasonality of mortality under climate change: a multicountry projection study

Author

Madaniyazi, Lina, Armstrong, Ben, Tobias, Aurelio, Mistry, Malcolm N, Bell, Michelle L, Urban, Aleš, Kyselý, Jan, Ryti, Niilo, Cvijanovic, Ivana, Ng, Chris Fook Sheng, Roye, Dominic, Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria, Tong, Shilu, Lavigne, Eric, Íñiguez, Carmen, da Silva, Susana das Neves Pereira, Madureira, Joana, Jaakkola, Jouni J K, Sera, Francesco, Honda, Yasushi, Gasparrini, Antonio, Hashizume, Masahiro, Abrutzky, Rosana, Acquaotta, Fiorella, Alahmad, Barrak, Analitis, Antonis, Carlsen, Hanne Krage, Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline, Colistro, Valentina, Matus Correa, Patricia, Dang, Tran Ngoc, de'Donato, Francesca, Hurtado Diaz, Magali, Dung, Do Van, Entezari, Alireza, Forsberg, Bertil, Goodman, Patrick, Guo, Yue Leon, Guo, Yuming, Holobaca, Iulian-Horia, Houthuijs, Danny, Huber, Veronika, Indermitte, Ene, Kan, Haidong, Katsouyanni, Klea, Kim, Yoonhee, Kim, Ho, Lee, Whanhee, Li, Shanshan, Mayvaneh, Fatemeh, Michelozzi, Paola, Orru, Hans, Valdés Ortega, Nicolás, Osorio, Samuel, Overcenco, Ala, Pan, Shih-Chun, Pascal, Mathilde, Ragettli, Martina S., Rao, Shilpa, Raz, Raanan, Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento, Schneider, Alexandra, Schwartz, Joel, Scovronick, Noah, Seposo, Xerxes, De la Cruz Valencia, César, Zanobetti, Antonella, and Zeka, Ariana

Abstract

Climate change can directly impact temperature-related excess deaths and might subsequently change the seasonal variation in mortality. In this study, we aimed to provide a systematic and comprehensive assessment of potential future changes in the seasonal variation, or seasonality, of mortality across different climate zones.

Published
2024
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61. Guidance on Measuring, Modelling and Monitoring the Canopy Layer Urban Heat Island (CL-UHI)

Author

Schlünzen, K.H., Grimmond, S., Baklanov, A. Martilli, A., Masson, V., Miao, S., Ren, C., Roth, M., Stewart, I.D., Ament, F., Chapman, L., Choo, L., Christen, A., Dipankar, A., Erell, E., Heaviside, C., Gonzalez, J., Halbig, G., Hoffmann, P., Kossmann, M., Krayenhoff, S., Po-wing Lau, S., Lean, H., McGregor, G., Nazarian, N., Saldiva, P., Shandas, V., Smith, S., Tan, J., Tarasova, O., and Voogt, J.

Abstract

The guidance provides an overview of and recommendations for measuring, modelling and monitoring the Canopy Layer urban heat island, which is based on temperature information at about 1.5 m above ground. Canopy Layer urban heat island information is one component of the integrated urban hydro-meteorological, climate and environmental services for citizens. These services may be provided directly by National Meteorological and Hydrometeorological Service (NMHS) operations, in cooperation with stakeholders or partners, or indirectly through stakeholders or partners in cities, public and private agencies.

Published
2023

66. Dynamics and Heterogeneity of the Lung Immunopathology in Severe COVID-19

Author

Erjefalt, J, primary, De Souza Xavier Costa, N, additional, Jönsson, J, additional, Cozzolino, O, additional, Dantas, K, additional, Clausson, C, additional, Siddhuraj, P, additional, Lindö, C, additional, Ferreira Spina Lombardi, S, additional, Mendroni Júnior, A, additional, Antonangelo, L, additional, Silvério Faria, C, additional, Nunes Duarte Neto, A, additional, De Almeida Monteiro, R, additional, Rebello Pinho, J, additional, Soares Gomes-Gouvêa, M, additional, Verciano Pereira, R, additional, Sirino Monteiro, J, additional, Setubal, J, additional, Pierre De Oliveira, E, additional, Theodoro Filho, J, additional, Sanden, C, additional, Orengo, J, additional, Sleeman, M, additional, Ferraz Da Silva, L, additional, Nascimento Saldiva, P, additional, Dolhnikoff, M, additional, and Mauad, T, additional

Published
2022
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67. Differentially expressed genes in Diffuse Alveolar Damage (DAD) patterns of COVID-19.

Author

de Souza Xavier Costa, N, primary, Sirino Monteiro, J, additional, Erjefält, J, additional, Jönsson, J, additional, Cozzolino, O, additional, Dantas, K, additional, Clausson, C, additional, Siddhuraj, P, additional, Lindö, C, additional, Ferreira Spina Lombardi, S, additional, Mendroni Júnior, A, additional, Antonangelo, L, additional, Silvério Faria, C, additional, Nunes Duarte Neto, A, additional, Almeida Monteiro, R, additional, Rebello Pinho, J R, additional, Soares Gomes-Gouvêa, M, additional, Verciano Pereira, R, additional, Pierre De Oliveira, E, additional, Theodoro Filho, J, additional, Sanden, C, additional, Orengo, J, additional, Sleeman, M, additional, Ferraz Da Silva, L F, additional, Nascimento Saldiva, P, additional, Dolhnikoff, M, additional, Mauad, T, additional, and Setubal, J C, additional

Published
2022
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68. Correlation between lung inflammatory cells, viral load and cytokines in fatal COVID-19

Author

de Souza Xavier Costa, N, primary, Erjefält, J, additional, Jönsson, J, additional, Cozzolino, O, additional, Dantas, K, additional, Clausson, C, additional, Siddhuraj, P, additional, Lindö, C, additional, Ferreira Spina Lombardi, S, additional, Mendroni Júnior, A, additional, Antonangelo, L, additional, Silvério Faria, C, additional, Nunes Duarte Neto, A, additional, Almeida Monteiro, R, additional, Rebello Pinho, J R, additional, Soares Gomes-Gouvêa, M, additional, Verciano Pereira, R, additional, Sirino Monteiro, J, additional, Setubal, J C, additional, Pierre De Oliveira, E, additional, Theodoro Filho, J, additional, Sanden, C, additional, Orengo, J, additional, Sleeman, M, additional, Ferraz Da Silva, L F, additional, Nascimento Saldiva, P, additional, Dolhnikoff, M, additional, and Mauad, T, additional

Published
2022
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73. Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000–19:a three-stage modelling study

Author

Wu, Y. (Yao), Li, S. (Shanshan), Zhao, Q. (Qi), Wen, B. (Bo), Gasparrini, A. (Antonio), Tong, S. (Shilu), Overcenco, A. (Ala), Urban, A. (Ales), Schneider, A. (Alexandra), Entezari, A. (Alireza), Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M. (Ana Maria), Zanobetti, A. (Antonella), Analitis, A. (Antonis), Zeka, A. (Ariana), Tobias, A. (Aurelio), Nunes, B. (Baltazar), Alahmad, B. (Barrak), Armstrong, B. (Ben), Forsberg, B. (Bertil), Pan, S.-C. (Shih-Chun), Iniguez, C. (Carmen), Ameling, C. (Caroline), De la Cruz Valencia, C. (Cesar), Astrom, C. (Christofer), Houthuijs, D. (Danny), Roye, D. (Dominic), Indermitte, E. (Ene), Lavigne, E. (Eric), Mayvaneh, F. (Fatemeh), Acquaotta, F. (Fiorella), De'Donato, F. (Francesca), Rao, S. (Shilpa), Sera, F. (Francesco), Carrasco-Escobar, G. (Gabriel), Kan, H. (Haidong), Orru, H. (Hans), Kim, H. (Ho), Holobaca, I.-H. (Iulian-Horia), Kysely, J. (Jan), Madureira, J. (Joana), Schwartz, J. (Joel), Jaakkola, J. J. (Jouni J. K.), Katsouyanni, K. (Klea), Diaz, M. H. (Magali Hurtado), Ragettli, M. S. (Martina S.), Hashizume, M. (Masahiro), Pascal, M. (Mathilde), Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M. d. (Micheline de Sousa), Ortega, N. V. (Nicolas Valdes), Ryti, N. (Niilo), Scovronick, N. (Noah), Michelozzi, P. (Paola), Correa, P. M. (Patricia Matus), Goodman, P. (Patrick), Nascimento Saldiva, P. H. (Paulo Hilario), Abrutzky, R. (Rosana), Osorio, S. (Samuel), Colistro, V. (Valentina), Huber, V. (Veronika), Lee, W. (Whanhee), Seposo, X. (Xerxes), Honda, Y. (Yasushi), Guo, Y. L. (Yue Leon), Bell, M. L. (Michelle L.), Guo, Y. (Yuming), Wu, Y. (Yao), Li, S. (Shanshan), Zhao, Q. (Qi), Wen, B. (Bo), Gasparrini, A. (Antonio), Tong, S. (Shilu), Overcenco, A. (Ala), Urban, A. (Ales), Schneider, A. (Alexandra), Entezari, A. (Alireza), Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M. (Ana Maria), Zanobetti, A. (Antonella), Analitis, A. (Antonis), Zeka, A. (Ariana), Tobias, A. (Aurelio), Nunes, B. (Baltazar), Alahmad, B. (Barrak), Armstrong, B. (Ben), Forsberg, B. (Bertil), Pan, S.-C. (Shih-Chun), Iniguez, C. (Carmen), Ameling, C. (Caroline), De la Cruz Valencia, C. (Cesar), Astrom, C. (Christofer), Houthuijs, D. (Danny), Roye, D. (Dominic), Indermitte, E. (Ene), Lavigne, E. (Eric), Mayvaneh, F. (Fatemeh), Acquaotta, F. (Fiorella), De'Donato, F. (Francesca), Rao, S. (Shilpa), Sera, F. (Francesco), Carrasco-Escobar, G. (Gabriel), Kan, H. (Haidong), Orru, H. (Hans), Kim, H. (Ho), Holobaca, I.-H. (Iulian-Horia), Kysely, J. (Jan), Madureira, J. (Joana), Schwartz, J. (Joel), Jaakkola, J. J. (Jouni J. K.), Katsouyanni, K. (Klea), Diaz, M. H. (Magali Hurtado), Ragettli, M. S. (Martina S.), Hashizume, M. (Masahiro), Pascal, M. (Mathilde), Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M. d. (Micheline de Sousa), Ortega, N. V. (Nicolas Valdes), Ryti, N. (Niilo), Scovronick, N. (Noah), Michelozzi, P. (Paola), Correa, P. M. (Patricia Matus), Goodman, P. (Patrick), Nascimento Saldiva, P. H. (Paulo Hilario), Abrutzky, R. (Rosana), Osorio, S. (Samuel), Colistro, V. (Valentina), Huber, V. (Veronika), Lee, W. (Whanhee), Seposo, X. (Xerxes), Honda, Y. (Yasushi), Guo, Y. L. (Yue Leon), Bell, M. L. (Michelle L.), and Guo, Y. (Yuming)

Abstract

Background: Increased mortality risk is associated with short-term temperature variability: However, to our knowledge, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the temperature variability-related mortality burden worldwide. In this study, using data from the MCC Collaborative Research Network, we first explored the association between temperature variability and mortality across 43 countries or regions. Then, to provide a more comprehensive picture of the global burden of mortality associated with temperature variability, global gridded temperature data with a resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° were used to assess the temperature variability-related mortality burden at the global, regional, and national levels. Furthermore, temporal trends in temperature variability-related mortality burden were also explored from 2000–19. Methods: In this modelling study, we applied a three-stage meta-analytical approach to assess the global temperature variability-related mortality burden at a spatial resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° degrees from 2000–19. Temperature variability was calculated as the SD of the average of the same and previous days’ minimum and maximum temperatures. We first obtained location-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations based on a daily time series of 750 locations from the Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network. We subsequently constructed a multivariable meta-regression model with five predictors to estimate grid-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations across the globe. Finally, percentage excess in mortality and excess mortality rate were calculated to quantify the temperature variability-related mortality burden and to further explore its temporal trend over two decades. Findings: An increasing trend in temperature variability was identified at the global level from 2000 to 2019. Globally, 1753392 deaths (95% CI 1159 901–2357 718) were associated with temperature variability per year, ac

Published
2022

75. Long-term association between the intensity of cosmic rays and mortality rates in the city of Sao Paulo

Author

C L Z Vieira, E Janot-Pacheco, C Lage, A Pacini, P Koutrakis, P R Cury, H Shaodan, L A Pereira, and P H N Saldiva

Subjects
solar cycles, galactic cosmic radiation, temperature, epidemiology, risk factor, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, TD1-1066, Environmental sciences, GE1-350, Science, Physics, QC1-999
Abstract

Human beings are constantly exposed to many kinds of environmental agents which affect their health and lifespan. Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) are the main source of ionizing radiation in the lower troposphere, in which secondary products can penetrate the ground and underground layers. GCRs affect the physical–chemical properties of the terrestrial atmosphere, as well as the biosphere. GCRs are modulated by solar activity and latitudinal geomagnetic field distribution. In our ecological/populational retrospective study, we analyzed the correlation between the annual flux of local secondary GCR-induced ionization (CRII) and mortality rates in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil, between 1951–2012. The multivariate linear regression analyses adjusted by demographic and weather parameters showed that CRII are significantly correlated with total mortality, infectious disease mortality, maternal mortality, and perinatal mortality rates ( p

Published
2018
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79. Linha do tempo do "tratamento precoce" para Covid-19 no Brasil: desinformação e comunicação do Ministério da Saúde.

Author

Floss, Mayara, Tolotti, Gabrielle, dos Santos Rossetto, Andrei, Souza de Camargo, Tatiana, and Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilário

Subjects
COVID-19 pandemic, DISEASE management, WORLD health, DRUGS, GRAVITY
Abstract

Copyright of Interface - Comunicação, Saúde, Educação is the property of Fundacao UNI and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Published
2023
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81. Exploring the short-term role of particulate matter in the COVID-19 outbreak in USA cities

Author

Carlos Eduardo Souto-Oliveira, Leonardo Yoshiaki Kamigauti, de Fatima Andrade M, E. Cowdery, Palma Perez Gm, and Hilário Nascimento Saldiva P

Subjects
Pollutant, Pollution, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), media_common.quotation_subject, Confounding, Outbreak, Particulates, chemistry.chemical_compound, chemistry, Granger causality, Environmental health, Environmental science, Nitrogen dioxide, media_common
Abstract

The role of particulate matter (PM) in the COVID-19 pandemic is currently being discussed by the scientific community. Long-term (years) exposure to PM is known to affect human health by increasing susceptibility to viral infections as well as to the development of respiratory and cardiovascular symptoms. In the short-term (days to months), PM has been suggested to assist airborne viral transmission. However, confounding factors such as urban mobility prevent causal conclusions. In this study, we explore short-term relationships between PM concentrations and the evolution of COVID-19 cases in a number of cities in the United States of America. We focus on the role of PM in facilitating viral transmission in early stages of the pandemic. We analyzed PM concentrations in two particle size ranges, < 2.5 µm, and between 10 and 2.5 µm (PM2.5 and PM10 respectively) as well as carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). Granger causality analysis was employed to identify instantaneous and lagged effects of pollution in peaks of COVID-19 new daily cases in each location. The effect of pollution in shaping the disease spread was evaluated by correlating the logistic growth rate of accumulated cases with pollutants concentrations for a range of time lags and accumulation windows. PM2.5 shows the most significant results in Granger causality tests in comparison with the other pollutants. We found a strong and significant association between PM2.5 concentrations and the growth rate of accumulated cases between the 1st and 18th days after the report of the infection, peaking at the 8th day. By comparing results of PM2.5 with PM10, CO and NO2 we rule out confounding effects associated with mobility. We conclude that PM2.5 is not a first order effect in the cities considered; however, it plays a significant role in facilitating the COVID-19 transmission. We estimate that the growth rate of COVID-19 cases would be risen by 12.5% if PM2.5 is increased from 25 to 35 µg m−3.

Published
2021

83. Short term associations of ambient nitrogen dioxide with daily total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality:multilocation analysis in 398 cities

Author

Meng, X. (Xia), Liu, C. (Cong), Chen, R. (Renjie), Sera, F. (Francesco), Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M. (Ana Maria), Milojevic, A. (Ai), Guo, Y. (Yuming), Tong, S. (Shilu), Coelho, M. d. (Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio), Saldiva, P. H. (Paulo Hilario Nascimento), Lavigne, E. (Eric), Correa, P. M. (Patricia Matus), Ortega, N. V. (Nicolas Valdes), Garcia, S. O. (Samuel Osorio), Kysely, J. (Jan), Urban, A. (Ales), Orru, H. (Hans), Maasikmets, M. (Marek), Jaakkola, J. J. (Jouni J. K.), Ryti, N. (Niilo), Huber, V. (Veronika), Schneider, A. (Alexandra), Katsouyanni, K. (Klea), Analitis, A. (Antonis), Hashizume, M. (Masahiro), Honda, Y. (Yasushi), Ng, C. F. (Chris Fook Sheng), Nunes, B. (Baltazar), Teixeira, J. P. (Joao Paulo), Holobaca, I. H. (Iulian Horia), Fratianni, S. (Simona), Kim, H. (Ho), Tobias, A. (Aurelio), Iniguez, C. (Carmen), Forsberg, B. (Bertil), Astrom, C. (Christofer), Ragettli, M. S. (Martina S.), Guo, Y. L. (Yue-Liang Leon), Pan, S.-C. (Shih-Chun), Li, S. (Shanshan), Bell, M. L. (Michelle L.), Zanobetti, A. (Antonella), Schwartz, J. (Joel), Wu, T. (Tangchun), Gasparrini, A. (Antonio), and Kan, H. (Haidong)

Abstract

Objective: To evaluate the short term associations between nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries/regions worldwide, using a uniform analytical protocol. Design: Two stage, time series approach, with overdispersed generalised linear models and multilevel meta-analysis. Setting: 398 cities in 22 low to high income countries/regions. Main outcome measures: Daily deaths from total (62.8 million), cardiovascular (19.7 million), and respiratory (5.5 million) causes between 1973 and 2018. Results: On average, a 10 μg/m³ increase in NO₂ concentration on lag 1 day (previous day) was associated with 0.46% (95% confidence interval 0.36% to 0.57%), 0.37% (0.22% to 0.51%), and 0.47% (0.21% to 0.72%) increases in total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. These associations remained robust after adjusting for co-pollutants (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤10 μm or ≤2.5 μm (PM₁₀ and PM2.5, respectively), ozone, sulfur dioxide, and carbon monoxide). The pooled concentration-response curves for all three causes were almost linear without discernible thresholds. The proportion of deaths attributable to NO₂ concentration above the counterfactual zero level was 1.23% (95% confidence interval 0.96% to 1.51%) across the 398 cities. Conclusions: This multilocation study provides key evidence on the independent and linear associations between short term exposure to NO₂ and increased risk of total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, suggesting that health benefits would be achieved by tightening the guidelines and regulatory limits of NO₂.

Published
2021

84. The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change

Author

Vicedo-Cabrera, A.M., Scovronick, N., Sera, F., Royé, D., Schneider, R., Tobias, A., Åström, Christofer, Guo, Y., Honda, Y., Hondula, D.M., Abrutzky, R., Tong, S., Coelho, M. de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio, Saldiva, P. H. Nascimento, Lavigne, E., Correa, P. Matus, Ortega, N. Valdes, Kan, H., Osorio, S., Kyselý, J., Urban, A., Orru, H., Indermitte, E., Jaakkola, J.J.K., Ryti, N., Pascal, M., Schneider, A., Katsouyanni, K., Samoli, E., Mayvaneh, F., Entezari, A., Goodman, P., Zeka, A., Michelozzi, P., de’Donato, F., Hashizume, M., Alahmad, B., Diaz, M. Hurtado, Valencia, C. De La Cruz, Overcenco, A., Houthuijs, D., Ameling, C., Rao, S., Di Ruscio, F., Carrasco-Escobar, G., Seposo, X., Silva, S., Madureira, J., Holobaca, I.H., Fratianni, S., Acquaotta, F., Kim, H., Lee, W., Iniguez, C., Forsberg, B., Ragettli, M.S., Guo, Y.L.L., Chen, B.Y., Li, S., Armstrong, B., Aleman, A., Zanobetti, A., Schwartz, J., Dang, T.N., Dung, D.V., Gillett, N., Haines, A., Mengel, M., Huber, V., Gasparrini, A., Vicedo-Cabrera, A.M., Scovronick, N., Sera, F., Royé, D., Schneider, R., Tobias, A., Åström, Christofer, Guo, Y., Honda, Y., Hondula, D.M., Abrutzky, R., Tong, S., Coelho, M. de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio, Saldiva, P. H. Nascimento, Lavigne, E., Correa, P. Matus, Ortega, N. Valdes, Kan, H., Osorio, S., Kyselý, J., Urban, A., Orru, H., Indermitte, E., Jaakkola, J.J.K., Ryti, N., Pascal, M., Schneider, A., Katsouyanni, K., Samoli, E., Mayvaneh, F., Entezari, A., Goodman, P., Zeka, A., Michelozzi, P., de’Donato, F., Hashizume, M., Alahmad, B., Diaz, M. Hurtado, Valencia, C. De La Cruz, Overcenco, A., Houthuijs, D., Ameling, C., Rao, S., Di Ruscio, F., Carrasco-Escobar, G., Seposo, X., Silva, S., Madureira, J., Holobaca, I.H., Fratianni, S., Acquaotta, F., Kim, H., Lee, W., Iniguez, C., Forsberg, B., Ragettli, M.S., Guo, Y.L.L., Chen, B.Y., Li, S., Armstrong, B., Aleman, A., Zanobetti, A., Schwartz, J., Dang, T.N., Dung, D.V., Gillett, N., Haines, A., Mengel, M., Huber, V., and Gasparrini, A.

Abstract

Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991–2018. Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5–76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change.

Published
2021
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85. Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019:a three-stage modelling study

Author

Zhao, Q. (Qi), Guo, Y. (Yuming), Ye, T. (Tingting), Gasparrini, A. (Antonio), Tong, S. (Shilu), Overcenco, A. (Ala), Urban, A. (Ales), Schneider, A. (Alexandra), Entezari, A. (Alireza), Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M. (Ana Maria), Zanobetti, A. (Antonella), Analitis, A. (Antonis), Zeka, A. (Ariana), Tobias, A. (Aurelio), Nunes, B. (Baltazar), Alahmad, B. (Barrak), Armstrong, B. (Ben), Forsberg, B. (Bertil), Pan, S.-C. (Shih-Chun), iniguez, C. (Carmen), Ameling, C. (Caroline), De la Cruz Valencia, C. (Cesar), Astrom, C. (Christofer), Houthuijs, D. (Danny), Van Dung, D. (Do), Roye, D. (Dominic), Indermitte, E. (Ene), Lavigne, E. (Eric), Mayvaneh, F. (Fatemeh), Acquaotta, F. (Fiorella), de'Donato, F. (Francesca), Di Ruscio, F. (Francesco), Sera, F. (Francesco), Carrasco-Escobar, G. (Gabriel), Kan, H. (Haidong), Orru, H. (Hans), Kim, H. (Ho), Holobaca, I.-H. (Iulian-Horia), Kysely, J. (Jan), Madureira, J. (Joana), Schwartz, J. (Joel), Jaakkola, J. J. (Jouni J. K.), Katsouyanni, K. (Klea), Diaz, M. H. (Magali Hurtado), Ragettli, M. S. (Martina S.), Hashizume, M. (Masahiro), Pascal, M. (Mathilde), de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M. (Micheline), Ortega, N. V. (Nicolas Valdes), Ryti, N. (Niilo), Scovronick, N. (Noah), Michelozzi, P. (Paola), Correa, P. M. (Patricia Matus), Goodman, P. (Patrick), Saldiva, P. H. (Paulo Hilario Nascimento), Abrutzky, R. (Rosana), Osorio, S. (Samuel), Rao, S. (Shilpa), Fratianni, S. (Simona), Dang, T. N. (Tran Ngoc), Colistro, V. (Valentina), Huber, V. (Veronika), Lee, W. (Whanhee), Seposo, X. (Xerxes), Honda, Y. (Yasushi), Guo, Y. L. (Yue Leon), Bell, M. L. (Michelle L.), Li, S. (Shanshan), Zhao, Q. (Qi), Guo, Y. (Yuming), Ye, T. (Tingting), Gasparrini, A. (Antonio), Tong, S. (Shilu), Overcenco, A. (Ala), Urban, A. (Ales), Schneider, A. (Alexandra), Entezari, A. (Alireza), Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M. (Ana Maria), Zanobetti, A. (Antonella), Analitis, A. (Antonis), Zeka, A. (Ariana), Tobias, A. (Aurelio), Nunes, B. (Baltazar), Alahmad, B. (Barrak), Armstrong, B. (Ben), Forsberg, B. (Bertil), Pan, S.-C. (Shih-Chun), iniguez, C. (Carmen), Ameling, C. (Caroline), De la Cruz Valencia, C. (Cesar), Astrom, C. (Christofer), Houthuijs, D. (Danny), Van Dung, D. (Do), Roye, D. (Dominic), Indermitte, E. (Ene), Lavigne, E. (Eric), Mayvaneh, F. (Fatemeh), Acquaotta, F. (Fiorella), de'Donato, F. (Francesca), Di Ruscio, F. (Francesco), Sera, F. (Francesco), Carrasco-Escobar, G. (Gabriel), Kan, H. (Haidong), Orru, H. (Hans), Kim, H. (Ho), Holobaca, I.-H. (Iulian-Horia), Kysely, J. (Jan), Madureira, J. (Joana), Schwartz, J. (Joel), Jaakkola, J. J. (Jouni J. K.), Katsouyanni, K. (Klea), Diaz, M. H. (Magali Hurtado), Ragettli, M. S. (Martina S.), Hashizume, M. (Masahiro), Pascal, M. (Mathilde), de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M. (Micheline), Ortega, N. V. (Nicolas Valdes), Ryti, N. (Niilo), Scovronick, N. (Noah), Michelozzi, P. (Paola), Correa, P. M. (Patricia Matus), Goodman, P. (Patrick), Saldiva, P. H. (Paulo Hilario Nascimento), Abrutzky, R. (Rosana), Osorio, S. (Samuel), Rao, S. (Shilpa), Fratianni, S. (Simona), Dang, T. N. (Tran Ngoc), Colistro, V. (Valentina), Huber, V. (Veronika), Lee, W. (Whanhee), Seposo, X. (Xerxes), Honda, Y. (Yasushi), Guo, Y. L. (Yue Leon), Bell, M. L. (Michelle L.), and Li, S. (Shanshan)

Abstract

Background: Exposure to cold or hot temperatures is associated with premature deaths. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national mortality burden associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures. Methods: In this modelling study, we collected time-series data on mortality and ambient temperatures from 750 locations in 43 countries and five meta-predictors at a grid size of 0·5° × 0·5° across the globe. A three-stage analysis strategy was used. First, the temperature–mortality association was fitted for each location by use of a time-series regression. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was built between location-specific estimates and meta-predictors. Finally, the grid-specific temperature–mortality association between 2000 and 2019 was predicted by use of the fitted meta-regression and the grid-specific meta-predictors. Excess deaths due to non-optimal temperatures, the ratio between annual excess deaths and all deaths of a year (the excess death ratio), and the death rate per 100 000 residents were then calculated for each grid across the world. Grids were divided according to regional groupings of the UN Statistics Division. Findings: Globally, 5 083 173 deaths (95% empirical CI [eCI] 4 087 967–5 965 520) were associated with non-optimal temperatures per year, accounting for 9·43% (95% eCI 7·58–11·07) of all deaths (8·52% [6·19–10·47] were cold-related and 0·91% [0·56–1·36] were heat-related). There were 74 temperature-related excess deaths per 100 000 residents (95% eCI 60–87). The mortality burden varied geographically. Of all excess deaths, 2 617 322 (51·49%) occurred in Asia. Eastern Europe had the highest heat-related excess death rate and Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest cold-related excess death rate. From 2000–03 to 2016–19, the global cold-related excess death ratio changed by −0·51 percentage points (95% eCI −0·61 to −0·42) and the global heat-related excess death ratio increased by 0·21 percentage points (0·13–0·31), l

Published
2021

92. An international planetary health for primary care massive open online course

Author

Floss, Mayara, Abelsohn, Alan, Kirk, Aoife, Khoo, Su-Ming, Saldiva, Paulo Hilário Nascimento, Umpierre, Roberto Nunes, McGushin, Alice, and Yoon, Sojung

Abstract

In this Viewpoint we argue that primary care practitioners should receive professional education in how to directly respond to planetary health challenges. We reflect on the provision of a massive open online course (MOOC) on planetary health for primary care practitioners in the context of existing training programmes. We describe the construction, delivery, and certification of a Global South-originated MOOC and explain aspects of its rhizomatic learning theory. We share baseline information and preliminary findings collected on the initial cohort of participants, including their profiles and previous knowledge about planetary health. We suggest that this MOOC is an appropriate response to planetary health challenges, and argue that cost-free, accredited planetary health education for primary care practitioners should be provided as a public good that also fulfils individual professionals’ entitlement to quality education and continuing professional development.

Published
2023
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93. Gestational weight gain according to the Brazilian charts and its association with maternal and infant adverse outcomes

Author

Carrilho, Thais Rangel Bousquet, Hutcheon, Jennifer A., Rasmussen, Kathleen M., Reichenheim, Michael E., Farias, Dayana Rodrigues, Freitas-Costa, Nathalia Cristina, Kac, Gilberto, Oliveira, Adauto Emmerich, Esteves-Pereira, Ana Paula, Sato, Ana Paula Sayuri, da Silva, Antônio Augusto Moura, Gomes, Caroline de Barros, de Moraes, Claudia Leite, Saunders, Claudia, da Silva Rocha, Daniela, Farias, Dayana Rodrigues, Barros, Denise C., Gigante, Denise Petrucci, dos Santos Neto, Edson Theodoro, Lacerda, Elisa Maria de Aquino, Fujimori, Elizabeth, Surita, Fernanda Garanhani, Kac, Gilberto, Bierhals, Isabel Oliveira, Capelli, Jane de Carlos Santana, Cecatti, José Guilherme, Vaz, Juliana dos Santos, Cesar, Juraci Almeida, Mastroeni, Marco Fabio, Carvalhaes, Maria Antonieta de Barros Leite, Leal, Maria do Carmo, Domingues, Marlos Rodrigues, Fernandes, Mayra Pacheco, Reichenheim, Michael Eduardo, Drehmer, Michele, Batalha, Mônica de Araújo, de Freitas-Costa, Nathalia Cristina, Padilha, Patrícia de Carvalho, Souza, Renato Teixeira, Mastroeni, Silmara Salete de Barros Silva, Saldiva, Silvia Regina Dias Medici, da Cruz, Simone Seixas, Morais, Sirlei Siani, and Carrilho, Thais Rangel Bousquet

Abstract

The lack of gestational weight gain (GWG) recommendations for low- and middle-income countries is a significant concern.

Published
2023
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94. Providing support to underprivileged people during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil: the role of the Trust Group and women leaders in São Paulo’s favelas

Author

Domingos, Ana Luiza Gomes, Mitkiewicz, Juliana Miranda, and Saldiva, Paulo Hilário Nascimento

Abstract

RESUMENSão Paulo fue uno de los epicentros de la pandemia de COVID-19 en Brasil y su impacto fue severo entre las poblaciones más desfavorecidas, especialmente en los residentes de favelas. Este documental relata la creación del Grupo Confianza, compuesto en su mayoría por mujeres líderes comunitarias en favelas de São Paulo y cómo sus acciones inspiraron políticas públicas en Brasil; sus lecciones son ejemplos de gobernabilidad y solidaridad en tiempos de crisis y pueden servir de modelo para otras ciudades de Latinoamérica. El documental describe la historia contada por aquellas líderes comunitarios. Para ver el documental, por favor visite el siguiente link: https://youtu.be/61elJw0oqCY

Published
2023
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95. Associations Between Extreme Temperatures and Cardiovascular Cause-Specific Mortality: Results From 27 Countries

Author

Alahmad, Barrak, Khraishah, Haitham, Royé, Dominic, Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria, Guo, Yuming, Papatheodorou, Stefania I., Achilleos, Souzana, Acquaotta, Fiorella, Armstrong, Ben, Bell, Michelle L., Pan, Shih-Chun, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline, Colistro, Valentina, Dang, Tran Ngoc, Van Dung, Do, De’ Donato, Francesca K., Entezari, Alireza, Guo, Yue-Liang Leon, Hashizume, Masahiro, Honda, Yasushi, Indermitte, Ene, Íñiguez, Carmen, Jaakkola, Jouni J.K., Kim, Ho, Lavigne, Eric, Lee, Whanhee, Li, Shanshan, Madureira, Joana, Mayvaneh, Fatemeh, Orru, Hans, Overcenco, Ala, Ragettli, Martina S., Ryti, Niilo R.I., Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento, Scovronick, Noah, Seposo, Xerxes, Sera, Francesco, Silva, Susana Pereira, Stafoggia, Massimo, Tobias, Aurelio, Garshick, Eric, Bernstein, Aaron S., Zanobetti, Antonella, Schwartz, Joel, Gasparrini, Antonio, and Koutrakis, Petros

Published
2023
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99. Projections of excess mortality related to diurnal temperature range under climate change scenarios:a multi-country modelling study

Author

Lee, W. (Whanhee), Kim, Y. (Yoonhee), Sera, F. (Francesco), Gasparrini, A. (Antonio), Park, R. (Rokjin), Choi, H. M. (Hayon Michelle), Prifti, K. (Kristi), Bell, M. L. (Michelle L.), Abrutzky, R. (Rosana), Guo, Y. (Yuming), Tong, S. (Shilu), Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M. d. (Micheline de Sousa), Nascimento Saldiva, P. H. (Paulo Hilario), Lavigne, E. (Eric), Orru, H. (Hans), Indermitte, E. (Ene), Jaakkola, J. J. (Jouni J. K.), Ryti, N. R. (Niilo R. I.), Pascal, M. (Mathilde), Goodman, P. (Patrick), Zeka, A. (Ariana), Hashizume, M. (Masahiro), Honda, Y. (Yasushi), Diaz, M. H. (Magali Hurtado), Cruz, J. C. (Julio Cesar), Overcenco, A. (Ala), Nunes, B. (Baltazar), Madureira, J. (Joana), Scovronick, N. (Noah), Acquaotta, F. (Fiorella), Tobias, A. (Aurelio), Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M. (Ana Maria), Ragettli, M. S. (Martina S.), Guo, Y. L. (Yue-Liang Leon), Chen, B.-Y. (Bing-Yu), Li, S. (Shanshan), Armstrong, B. (Ben), Zanobetti, A. (Antonella), Schwartz, J. (Joel), Kim, H. (Ho), Lee, W. (Whanhee), Kim, Y. (Yoonhee), Sera, F. (Francesco), Gasparrini, A. (Antonio), Park, R. (Rokjin), Choi, H. M. (Hayon Michelle), Prifti, K. (Kristi), Bell, M. L. (Michelle L.), Abrutzky, R. (Rosana), Guo, Y. (Yuming), Tong, S. (Shilu), Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M. d. (Micheline de Sousa), Nascimento Saldiva, P. H. (Paulo Hilario), Lavigne, E. (Eric), Orru, H. (Hans), Indermitte, E. (Ene), Jaakkola, J. J. (Jouni J. K.), Ryti, N. R. (Niilo R. I.), Pascal, M. (Mathilde), Goodman, P. (Patrick), Zeka, A. (Ariana), Hashizume, M. (Masahiro), Honda, Y. (Yasushi), Diaz, M. H. (Magali Hurtado), Cruz, J. C. (Julio Cesar), Overcenco, A. (Ala), Nunes, B. (Baltazar), Madureira, J. (Joana), Scovronick, N. (Noah), Acquaotta, F. (Fiorella), Tobias, A. (Aurelio), Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M. (Ana Maria), Ragettli, M. S. (Martina S.), Guo, Y. L. (Yue-Liang Leon), Chen, B.-Y. (Bing-Yu), Li, S. (Shanshan), Armstrong, B. (Ben), Zanobetti, A. (Antonella), Schwartz, J. (Joel), and Kim, H. (Ho)

Abstract

Background: Various retrospective studies have reported on the increase of mortality risk due to higher diurnal temperature range (DTR). This study projects the effect of DTR on future mortality across 445 communities in 20 countries and regions. Methods: DTR-related mortality risk was estimated on the basis of the historical daily time-series of mortality and weather factors from Jan 1, 1985, to Dec 31, 2015, with data for 445 communities across 20 countries and regions, from the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We obtained daily projected temperature series associated with four climate change scenarios, using the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, from the lowest to the highest emission scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5). Excess deaths attributable to the DTR during the current (1985–2015) and future (2020–99) periods were projected using daily DTR series under the four scenarios. Future excess deaths were calculated on the basis of assumptions that warmer long-term average temperatures affect or do not affect the DTR-related mortality risk. Findings: The time-series analyses results showed that DTR was associated with excess mortality. Under the unmitigated climate change scenario (RCP 8.5), the future average DTR is projected to increase in most countries and regions (by −0·4 to 1·6°C), particularly in the USA, south-central Europe, Mexico, and South Africa. The excess deaths currently attributable to DTR were estimated to be 0·2–7·4%. Furthermore, the DTR-related mortality risk increased as the long-term average temperature increased; in the linear mixed model with the assumption of an interactive effect with long-term average temperature, we estimated 0·05% additional DTR mortality risk per 1°C increase in average temperature. Based on the interaction with long-term average temperature, the DTR-related excess deaths are projected to incre

Published
2020

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