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Objectives: This study examined the relationship between atrial fibrillation and (1) stroke and (2) all-cause mortality., Methods: All eligible Medicare patients older than 65 years of age hospitalized in 1985 were followed up for 4 years. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards models were used for assessment of risk of stroke and mortality., Results: A total of 4,282,607 eligible Medicare patients were hospitalized in 1985. The mean age was 76.1 (+/- 7.7) years; 58.7% were female; 7.2% were Black; and 8.4% had a diagnosis of atrial fibrillation. During the follow-up period, 66,063 patients (32.6/1000 person-years) developed nonembolic stroke and 7285 (3.6/1000 person-years) developed embolic stroke. After adjustment for age, race, sex, and comorbid conditions, atrial fibrillation remained a significant risk factor for both nonembolic stroke (relative risk [RR] = 1.56) and embolic stroke (RR = 5.80) and for mortality (RR = 1.31). Approximately 4.5% of nonembolic and 28.7% of embolic strokes among hospitalized Medicare patients aged 65 years and older were attributable to atrial fibrillation., Conclusions: This study demonstrates that atrial fibrillation is associated with an appreciable increase in the risk of stroke (both embolic and nonembolic) and in the risk of mortality from all causes.

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to determine the relation of screening mammography to breast cancer incidence and case fatality., Methods: In a sample of White female Medicare beneficiaries hospitalized in 1990-1991, age-adjusted breast cancer incidence and 2-year case fatality rates were estimated and compared with the frequency of mammographic screening from a population-based survey., Results: The average rates for incidence, case fatality, and mammography within 5 years in 29 states were 414/100,000, 18.8%, and 59.2%, respectively. There was a positive state-level correlation between mammography rates and incidence and an inverse correlation between mammography and case fatality., Conclusions: High screening mammography rates in some states are associated with reduced breast cancer case fatality rates, presumably as a result of diagnosis of earlier stage cancers.

The purpose of this study was to describe the impact of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in the elderly on health care utilization. The Health Care Financing Administration (HCFA) file for the year 1984 through 1991 involving beneficiaries < or = 65 yr were searched for the diagnoses of asthma and COPD by ICD-9 codes. The study groups were created by determining the first admission for an exacerbation of either disease during each year from 1984 through 1991. Patients were identified by their social security number. The 1984 cohort consisted of 56,692 patients with asthma exacerbation and 162,899 with COPD exacerbation. The 1991 cohort consisted of 67,758 patients with asthma exacerbation and 131,974 patients with COPD exacerbation. In addition, the 1984 cohort was tracked by social security number for evidence of rehospitalization for either asthma or COPD through 1991. Length of hospitalization increased as patients grew older. The discharge rate to an independent living facility diminished as age increased. The use of convalescent and nursing homes or home health care after discharge more than doubled from 1984 through 1991. The utilization of health care resources by elderly patients with asthma and COPD is immense, both during hospitalization and after discharge.

Objective: Determine the relation of race and gender to outcome from bleeding peptic ulcer., Design: Retrospective cohort study., Setting: All acute care hospitals in the United States., Patients: A 100% sample of hospitalized Medicare beneficiaries older than 64 years (n = 82,868) with a primary discharge diagnosis of peptic ulcer with hemorrhage., Measurements and Main Results: Surgical treatment was performed in 6.9% of patients, 30-day mortality was 8.5%, and average length of stay was 9.4 days. Surgery was somewhat more common in men than women (7.3% vs 6.5%, p < .001), and in whites than African Americans (6.9% vs 6.3%, p < .001), but neither race nor gender was associated with surgery in multivariable analysis adjusting for potentially confounding factors. Mortality rates were similar in African Americans and whites (8.5%), and somewhat higher in men than women (10.7% vs 9.3%, p < .001). In multivariable analysis, there was no difference in mortality across gender and racial groups. Although unadjusted and adjusted lengths of stay were longer for African Americans and shorter for men, the differences were modest (i.e., 16% increase and 6% decrease in multivariable analysis, respectively, p < .0001)., Conclusions: In this national sample, there is no significant gender or racial difference in therapy and outcome for patients with hemorrhagic peptic ulcer. The findings raise the possibility that studies that have shown race and gender differences in management of coronary artery disease and cancer may not be generalizable to other common diagnoses.

The risk of disability and death and the cost of medical care are particularly high for patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) who are 65 years of age or older. A retrospective analysis of 47,408 Medicare patients treated over an 8-year period was performed to determine whether a relationship exists between the mortality rate and surgical volume for older patients with SAH. The mortality rate, length of stay in the hospital, and cost of treatment for patients with SAH in California and New York state were also compared. The mortality rate was 14.3% for patients with SAH who were 65 years old or older and who were treated surgically in hospitals in which an average of five or more craniotomies were performed per year; in hospitals averaging between one and five craniotomies annually the mortality rate was 18.4%; and in those averaging less than one such operation per year the rate was 20.5% (trend p = 0.01). There was no difference in the mortality rate for patients in California versus the rate for those in New York. Surgically and medically treated patients, respectively, left the hospital an average of 6.7 and 5.1 days sooner in California than in New York. The unadjusted average reimbursement from Medicare to hospitals for surgically treated patients averaged $1468 more in New York than in California (p < 0.0001), but was equivalent for medically treated patients in the two states. The mortality rate in older patients who are treated surgically for SAH may be inversely correlated with the annual number of craniotomies performed for SAH in patients 65 years of age or older at a given institution. Hospital stays for patients with SAH are significantly shorter in California than in New York.

In the United States, blacks have higher death rates from colon cancer than whites, and the survival disparity may be due in part to differences in screening programs and acute medical care in counties with a high concentration of blacks. We studied 148,947 Medicare beneficiaries with newly diagnosed colorectal cancer in 1989-1991 who resided in the 329 most populous counties in the United States to determine the relationship of race and county racial composition to cancer incidence and survival. Counties were divided into quartiles based on proportion of blacks in the population, and aggregate incidence and 2-year case-fatality rates were compared within and between quartiles. Within each quartile, the adjusted incidence rate for whites was consistently higher than that for blacks (P < 0.0001), and case-fatality rates were consistently lower among whites (P < 0.0001) for all but the quartile with the lowest proportion of blacks. Between quartiles, the incidence rates for both whites (P = 0.0001) and blacks (P = 0.008) decreased progressively, and case fatality rates increased progressively for both whites (P = 0.001) and blacks (P = 0.007) as the proportion of blacks increased. When counties were grouped into three different geographic areas, racial disparity in survival was observed in all regions. The variability between groups of counties in colon cancer incidence and mortality for both white and black patients may suggest differences at the county level in screening and treatment. However, consistent racial disparity within county quartiles may reflect persistent deficiencies in access to and quality of care for black patients.

Objective: Our purpose was to examine length of hospital stay, complications, morbidity, and mortality associated with surgery for urinary incontinence in women > 65 years old., Study Design: Data obtained from Medicare billing forms (HCFA form 1450, UB-82, UB-92) in the Medicare Provider Analysis and Review Record database for surgical procedures done for incontinence (international Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, codes 59.3 to 59.79) from 1984 to 1991 were reviewed. Comorbidities and reasons for readmission were extracted from secondary diagnosis codes., Results: There wee 66,478 patients in the cohort. The mean and median ages were 71 years. The 30-day surgical mortality was 0.33%. Length of stay and mortality increased linearly with age. Acute events associated with death were myocardial infarction (14.2% of deaths), cerebrovascular accident (stroke) (14.6%), pulmonary embolism or deep vein thrombosis (9.7%), and pneumonia (2.7%). Patients who died had higher rates of diabetes and heart failure but not of hypertension. The 30-day readmission rate was 4.8% with higher rates in patients > 80 years old. Urinary tract infection (12.2%), hypertension (16%), and unspecified complications (9%) were the most frequent diagnoses on readmissions. Myocardial infarction, pulmonary embolism, cerebrovascular accident, deep vein thrombosis, and pneumonia each occurred in only 1%., Conclusion: Incontinence surgery is safe in the "young elderly." Those > 80 years old and with certain chronic illness should be counseled about increased risks.

Background: Short-term race- and sex-specific case- fatality rates for pulmonary embolism (PE) in the elderly have not been studied previously, to our knowledge., Objectives: To examine 30-day race- and sex-specific case-fatality rates of PE in the Medicare population and to determine the risk of fatality when PE was a secondary diagnosis in 6 primary concurrent conditions and 3 surgical procedures., Methods: Case-fatality rates were determined using the Medicare Provider Analysis and Review Record tiles from 1984 through 1991. All Medicare Part A beneficiaries aged 65 years or older were included, yielding more than 400,000 patients with PE. Case-fatality rates 30 days from hospital admission were calculated for both a primary discharge diagnosis of PE and a secondary discharge diagnosis of PE., Results: Blacks with PE as a primary discharge diagnosis had an overall age-adjusted case-fatality rate of 16.1% compared with a rate of 12.9% for whites. When PE was a secondary diagnosis, blacks also had higher rates than whites (34.7% vs 30.2%). Men had a fatality rate of 13.7% whereas women had a rate of 12.8% when PE was the primary diagnosis. For a secondary diagnosis of PE, men had a rate of 32.8% compared with a rate of 28.6% for women. The risk of fatality was very high when PE was a secondary discharge diagnosis in 6 primary concurrent conditions (congestive heart failure, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, myocardial infarction, hip fracture, and stroke) and 3 common surgical procedures (coronary artery bypass graft, hip replacement, and knee replacement) relative to the case-fatality rate when PE was not present in these conditions., Conclusions: Our results indicate that there are racial and gender differences in 30-day case-fatality rates for PE in elderly patients. The high fatality risk associated with PE as a comorbid factor among common primary concurrent conditions and procedures calls attention to the need for more effective prophylaxis of deep vein thrombosis and rapid diagnosis and treatment of PE when it occurs.

This study examined surgery for colorectal cancer among Medicare beneficiaries 65 years of age or older with an initial diagnosis in 1987 (n = 81 579). Black patients were less likely than White to undergo surgical resection (68% vs 78%), even after age, comorbidity, and location and extent of tumor were controlled for. Among those who underwent resection, Black patients were more likely to die (a 2-year mortality rate of 40.0% vs 33.5% in White patients); this disparity also remained after confounders had been controlled. The disparities were similar in teaching and nonteaching hospitals and in private and public hospitals. These data may indicate racially based differences among Medicare beneficiaries in access to and quality of care for colorectal cancer.

Unlike most European and Asian countries, radical vaginal hysterectomy (RVH) is not performed often in the United States, especially among older women. To examine the changes in RVH over the years, trends in hospital stay, hospital charges, and patient survival, we studied women aged 65 years and older undergoing RVH and compared them with patients receiving radical abdominal hysterectomy (RAH). During the study period there were a total of 288 RVH surgeries compared with 4,835 RAH surgeries. There were no significant changes in the number or proportion of RVH patients over 8 years (p = .50, trend test). On the average, RVH patients were significantly older and had shorter hospital stays. Among patients without cancer, there were no significant differences in the age, race, or survival of patients having either RVH or RAH. Similar results were obtained for patients with cancer.

The best therapy for persons with acute myelogenous leukemia (AML) in 2nd remission is unknown. Bone marrow transplants from an HLA-identical sibling are reported to be better than chemotherapy but this is controversial. The objective of the study was to compare 3-year leukemia-free survival (LFS) in comparable subjects receiving chemotherapy or a transplant. 485 persons with AML in 2nd remission were studied. The chemotherapy cohort included 244 persons treated on trials of the British Medical Research Council, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group and MD Anderson Hospital. The transplant cohort included 257 persons transplanted worldwide and reported to the international Bone Marrow Transplant Registry (16 were also chemotherapy subjects.) Subjects were selected for comparable age and year of treatment. Preliminary analyses identified two factors correlated with LFS: age < or = or > 30 years and 1st remission duration < or = or > 1 year; subsequent analyses were partitioned accordingly. Three-year probabilities of treatment-related mortality with chemotherapy and transplants were 7% (95% confidence interval, 3-15%) vs 56% (49-63%). Three-year leukemia relapse probabilities were 81% (74-86%) vs 41% (33-49%). Three-year probabilities of LFS were 17% (12-23%) vs 26 (20-32%). Cohort analysis showed significantly higher LFS with transplants vs chemotherapy in persons < or = 30 years and 1st remissions > 1 year (41% (29-53%) vs 17% (7-32%); P = 0.017) and those in > 30 years with 1st remissions < or = 1 year (18% (9-29%) vs 7% (2-16%); P = 0.046). Others had comparable LFS with both treatments. These data indicate better LFS with HLA-identical sibling transplants than chemotherapy in some persons with AML in 2nd remission.

Cerebral arterial aneurysms are common in the general population and their rupture is a catastrophic event. Considerable uncertainty remains concerning the conditions that predispose individuals to aneurysm formation or rupture. The role of systemic hypertension in aneurysm formation and rupture has been especially controversial. Demographic variables have rarely been addressed because of the small sample sizes in previous studies. The authors describe the demographics and prevalence of hypertension in 20,767 Medicare patients with an unruptured aneurysm and compared these to a random sample of the hospitalized Medicare population. The prevalence of hypertension in patients with unruptured aneurysms was 43.2% compared with 34.4% in the random sample. Patients who survived their initial hospitalization were separated into two groups: those with an unruptured cerebral aneurysm as the primary diagnosis and those with an unruptured cerebral aneurysm as a secondary diagnosis. Follow-up data for 18,119 patients were examined to determine the risk of subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) associated with age, gender, race, hypertension, insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus, and surgical treatment. For patients with an unruptured cerebral aneurysm as the primary diagnosis, hypertension was found to be a significant risk factor for future SAH (risk ratio: 1.46, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01-2.11), whereas surgical treatment (risk ratio: 0.29, 95% CI: 0.09-0.97) had a significant protective effect. Advancing age had a small but significant protective effect in both groups. Elderly patients identified with unruptured aneurysms are more likely to have coexisting hypertension than the general hospitalized population. In elderly patients hospitalized with an unruptured cerebral aneurysm as their primary diagnosis, hypertension is a risk factor for subsequent SAH, whereas surgical treatment is a protective factor against SAH.

Objective: The study investigated the value of using national or regional data bases to examine care in a specific hospital., Data Sources: The following data sources were included: (1) the results of the 1992 HCFA analysis of the index hospital for patients hospitalized in fiscal year 1990; (2) the 1989 Medicare Provider Analysis and Review (MEDPAR) file; and (3) clinical information from bypass surgery patients in Wisconsin and from the index hospital., Principal Findings: The assessment of the mortality rates in the index hospital for all conditions combined and for CABG patients differed depending on what data base was used and how the data were analysed. The national data were most useful in establishing that the coding practices for all patients and the mortality rate for intra-aortic balloon patients differed between the index hospital and other hospitals. The regional clinical data base for bypass surgery patients was used to establish that the high mortality rates for intra-aortic balloon patients were due to patient selection., Conclusions: National claims data must be analysed carefully before applying results to an individual hospital. Even a careful analysis is more for raising questions about care at a specific hospital rather than for reaching definitive conclusions.

Background: Population-based screening programs with flexible sigmoidoscopy have been advocated as a means to reduce the death rate from colorectal cancer. Because other studies have suggested a greater prevalence of lesions inaccessible to sigmoidoscopy in older patients, the expected yield of this procedure may differ in these subgroups., Methods: A 100% sample of Medicare beneficiaries 65 years or older with a first known diagnosis of colorectal cancer in 1987 was studied. Tumor site was divided into rectum, distal colon (distal to splenic flexure) and proximal colon. The analysis was also stratified by sex, race, and presence or absence metastatic disease, and incidence rates at each site by 5-year age group were calculated., Results: Among the 75,266 patients studied, the incidence of colorectal cancer increased from 1.59 patients/1000 in patients age 65-69 years to 3.87 patients/1000 in patients age 85 years and older. Although the incidence rates at all three sites increased, the increment was greatest for proximal tumors. The incidence trends with age also persisted in an analysis of only metastatic lesions. Moreover, incidence rates were consistently higher in men than in women and higher in whites than in blacks at all sites, though the age-related increase in incidence was consistent among all four groups., Conclusions: The proportion of tumors beyond the reach of sigmoidoscopy increased with age, as did the actual incidence of accessible lesions. These patterns were also consistent in subgroup analyses. As the age-related increase in incidence was observed for metastatic tumors at all sites in the colon, age-related differences in screening and diagnostic evaluation alone do not adequately explain the findings. These data underscore the need for further studies of the relative benefits of cancer screening and pathogenic factors in tumor development in different subgroups of the older population.

Hospital characteristics have been shown previously to be associated with variations in the probability of death within 30 days of admission. In the current study, the authors extend the examination of the relationship between hospital type to both short-term and long-term adjusted mortality. Observed and predicted 1988 hospital mortality rates were obtained from the Health Care Financing Administration (HCFA). A total of 3,782 acute care hospitals were divided into six mutually exclusive groups on the basis of their status as osteopathic, private for-profit, public teaching, public nonteaching, private teaching, and private nonteaching hospitals. After adjusting for the HCFA predicted mortality, Medicaid admissions, and emergency visits, 30-day and 30-to-180-day patient mortality rates were compared for these hospital types. Separate comparisons also were performed after stratifying hospitals into three groups defined by community size. The risk-adjusted 30-day mortality per 1,000 patients was 91.5, ranging from 85.4 for private teaching hospitals to 95.3 for nonteaching public hospitals, and 97.4 for osteopathic hospitals. The adjusted 30-to-180-day mortality was 84.7, ranging from 82.6 for nonteaching public hospitals to 87.4 and 88.2, respectively for public teaching and osteopathic hospitals. Differences among hospital types were minimal for small communities and increased with community size. In the large communities, the types of hospitals with high 30-day mortality also had higher mortality after 30 days. There was a strong association of hospital type with adjusted 30-day mortality, which should depend on the quality of hospital care, and a much weaker association with post-30-day mortality, which may be more dependent on patient risk. There was no evidence that types of hospitals with low 30-day mortality were postponing rather than preventing mortality.

Objective: To compare outcomes of identical-twin with HLA-identical sibling bone marrow transplants for leukemia., Design: Matched-pair analysis comparing relapse, treatment-related mortality, and leukemia-free survival in cohorts matched for disease and variables correlated with transplant outcome, with and without adjustment for graft-versus-host disease., Setting: 163 institutions worldwide between 1978 and 1990, reporting to the International Bone Marrow Transplant Registry., Participants: 103 identical-twin transplants: 24 for acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) in first remission, 45 for acute myelogenous leukemia (AML) in first remission, and 34 for chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML) in first chronic phase. Results were compared with those in 1030 concurrent HLA-identical sibling transplants matched for prognostic factors., Results: Three-year probabilities of relapse after identical-twin compared with HLA-identical sibling transplants were as follows: ALL, 36% (95% CI, 17% to 55%) compared with 26% (CI, 20% to 32%); AML, 52% (CI, 37% to 67%) compared with 16% (CI, 12% to 20%); and CML, 40% (CI, 23% to 57%) compared with 7% (CI, 4% to 10%). Increased relapse risks in AML and CML persisted after adjusting for graft-versus-host disease (relative risk, 3.1 [CI, 1.9 to 5.1] and 5.5 [CI, 2.8 to 11.0], respectively). Although twins had less treatment-related mortality than HLA-identical siblings, leukemia-free survival was similar. Three-year leukemia-free survival probabilities after twin compared with HLA-identical sibling transplants were as follows: ALL, 57% (CI, 37% to 77%) compared with 58% (CI, 52% to 64%); AML, 42% (CI, 27% to 57%) compared with 55% (CI, 50% to 60%); and CML, 59% (CI, 42% to 76%) compared with 61% (CI, 56% to 66%)., Conclusions: Identical-twin transplants in AML and CML are associated with increased relapse risk compared with HLA-identical sibling transplants. A similar trend was observed in ALL but was not statistically significant. Increased relapse in twin transplants is not explained by lack of graft-versus-host disease. Leukemia-free survival after twin and HLA-identical sibling transplants is similar because increased relapse in twins is offset by decreased treatment-related mortality.

Objective: To determine the prevalence, geographic variation, and charges to Medicare of alcohol-related hospitalizations among elderly people in the United States., Design: A cross-sectional prevalence study using 1989 hospital claims data from the Health Care Financing Administration (HCFA). Rates were determined using (1) hospital claims records from the HCFA's Medicare Provider Analysis and Review Record (MEDPAR) database for all Medicare Part A beneficiaries aged 65 years and older; (2) county population estimates for 1985 from the Bureau of the Census; and (3) per capita consumption of alcohol by state in 1989 as estimated by the US Department of Health and Human Services., Setting: Data include all hospital inpatient Medicare Part A beneficiaries aged 65 years and older in the United States in 1989., Results: The prevalence of alcohol-related hospitalizations among people aged 65 years and older nationally in 1989 was 54.7 per 10,000 population for men and 14.8 per 10,000 for women. Comparison with hospital records showed that MEDPAR data had a sensitivity of 77% to detect alcohol-related hospitalizations. There was considerable geographic variation; prevalence ranged from 18.9 per 10,000 in Arkansas to 77.0 per 10,000 in Alaska. A strong correlation existed between alcohol-related hospitalizations and per capita consumption of alcohol by state (Spearman correlation coefficient, .64; P < .0001). In 1989, the hospital-associated charges to Medicare for all admissions where the primary diagnosis was alcohol related (N = 33,039) totaled $233,543,500. Median charge per hospital stay was $4514., Conclusions: Alcohol-related hospitalizations among elderly people are common; rates were similar to those for myocardial infarction as detected by the same method. The charges to Medicare for this preventable problem are considerable. Ecological analysis suggests that per capita consumption in the total US population predicts alcohol-related hospitalizations in the elderly population.

The International Bone Marrow Transplant Registry is an organization devoted to scientific research in BMT. More than 230 transplant teams worldwide contribute detailed information about recipients of allogeneic and syngeneic BMT for study. Results of analyses are published in medical journals and presented at national and international scientific meetings (more than 60 publications and more than 500 presentations in the past 4 years). This collaborative research program has grown rapidly with more than 2000 cases reported annually. This report summarizes results of several recent investigations and reviews the state of BMT in leukemia and aplastic anemia.

Objective: To determine whether age over 40 years is associated with adverse outcome after allogeneic bone marrow transplantation for leukemia., Design: A retrospective analysis of outcome after bone marrow transplants for leukemia reported to the International Bone Marrow Transplant Registry (IBMTR) among recipients 30 through 39 years, 40 through 44 years, 45 through 49 years, and 50 years of age and older., Setting: Transplantations performed in 138 institutions worldwide and reported to the IBMTR., Patients: A total of 2180 recipients of HLA-identical sibling bone marrow transplants for leukemia, divided into four cohorts based on age: 30 through 39 years (n = 1282), 40 through 44 years (n = 527), 45 through 49 years (n = 291), and 50 years and older (n = 80)., Main Outcome Measures and Results: Incidence of leukemia-free survival, graft-vs-host disease, and relapse was comparable among the four age cohorts. Patients with advanced leukemia aged 45 years or older had a slightly higher risk of treatment-related mortality, and the 45- through 49-year-old cohort had a higher risk of interstitial pneumonia., Conclusions: These data indicate that among leukemia patients over 30 years of age at the time of allogeneic bone marrow transplantation, increasing age into the fifth decade does not adversely affect outcome after transplants from HLA-identical siblings.

This study assessed the relationship between the Health Care Financing Administration adjusted mortality rate for a hospital and the errors in care found by the peer review process. The three data sets used were: (1) the 1987-1988 completed reviews from 38 peer review organizations (PROs) of 4,132 hospitals and 2,035,128 patients; (2) all 1987 hospital mortality rates for Medicare patients as adjusted by HCFA for patient mix; and (3) the 1986 American Hospital Association Survey. The PRO data were used to compute the percentage of cases reviewed from each hospital confirmed by a reviewing physician to have a quality problem. The average percentage of confirmed problems was 3.73 percent with state rates ranging from 0.03 percent to 38.5 percent. The average within-state correlation between the problem rate and the adjusted mortality rate for all PROs was .19 (p < .0001), but the correlations were much higher for relatively homogeneous groups of hospitals, .42 for public hospitals and .36 for hospitals in large metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). These results suggest that the HCFA adjusted hospital mortality rate and the PRO-confirmed problem rate are related methods to compare hospitals on the basis of quality of care. Both methods may compare quality better if used within a group of homogenous hospitals.

Objectives: Current methods to evaluate quality of care are usually limited to reviews of individual cases or comparisons of hospital mortality rates. We present an alternative method that compares complication rates adjusted for patient characteristics., Methods: Detailed clinical data that were specifically designed for quality comparisons of providers of revascularization procedures were abstracted from the medical records of 1998 Medicare patients, in 16 hospitals, who had coronary artery bypass surgery and 2091 patients, in 16 hospitals, who had angioplasty. Providers were ranked on the basis of an unadjusted risk, a risk adjusted for detailed clinical information, and a risk adjusted only for patient comorbidities., Results: Complication rates differed significantly and substantially among the hospitals. Clinical adjustment changed the hospital rankings for the bypass surgery hospitals, but not for the angioplasty hospitals. Adjustment for comorbidities did not affect hospital rankings for either procedure., Conclusions: When sample sizes are limited, adverse outcome rates may be a more sensitive measure of quality of care than mortality rates. Rates that are unadjusted or adjusted only for comorbidities may be inadequate for evaluating some providers of bypass surgery.

The management of intussusception requires early diagnosis and reduction with either barium enema or surgical intervention. Supine and erect abdominal radiographs are often obtained prior to ordering a barium enema. In many pediatric centers, the critical, initial interpretation of these radiographs is made by nonradiologists and, in most instances, by pediatric emergency physicians. We determined the sensitivity and specificity of abdominal radiographs in diagnosing intussusception when interpreted by these physicians. Six full-time pediatric emergency physicians evaluated 126 radiographs from 42 patients with intussusception, 42 in whom the disease was clinically suspected but ruled out, and 42 in whom the final radiology report was "normal." These were presented to pediatric emergency physicians in a blinded, randomized sequence without any additional clinical information. These physicians then identified patients for whom they would proceed to barium enema. The mean sensitivity was 80.5% (range, 71-93%), and the mean specificity was 58% (range, 48-69%). This compares favorably to the sensitivity of signs and symptoms, and we conclude that plain and upright abdominal films are a useful adjunct for the clinician evaluating patients for suspected intussusception.

The association of long-term weight fluctuation with non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM) was investigated for a population of 8232 white female members of the Taking Off Pounds Sensibly (TOPS) weight-awareness program, between the ages of 40 and 50 years. An index of weight fluctuation was developed using current weight, weight at the time maximum height was reached, and recalled maximum and minimum weights for the third and fourth decades for each member of the study population. A logistic regression of diabetes prevalence as a function of weight fluctuation, waist-hip ratio, relative weight, and family history index showed standardized odds ratios of 1.10, 1.22, 1.19, and 1.06, respectively. The results suggest that the magnitude of long-term weight fluctuation is associated with the development of NIDDM.

This paper describes the all-cause mortality experience, following a fracture of the hip, of 712,027 persons covered by the Medicare program from 1984 through 1987. White women experienced the lowest mortality rate (17.2 per 1000 person-months), followed by Black women (22.9 per 1000 person-months), Black men (33.5 per 1000 person-months), and White men (33.7 per 1000 person-months). The observed race-sex differences in survival were found at all ages and regardless of the number of comorbid conditions listed with the discharge diagnosis. While these data demonstrate marked race-sex differences in survival following hip fracture, the cause of these differences is not immediately apparent and demands further investigation.

The International Bone Marrow Transplant Registry receives and analyses detailed information contributed by more than 200 transplant teams worldwide. This collaborative research program has grown rapidly; there are now more than 15,000 cases in the database. This progress report summarizes the current status of bone marrow transplantation, the results of recent investigations and studies planned for the coming year.

From 1987 through 1990, the Health Care Financing Administration (HCFA) evaluated variations in the mortality rates experienced by patients admitted to hospitals participating in the Medicare program. This study was conducted to evaluate the adequacy of the model used for that purpose. Detailed clinical data were gathered on 42,773 patients admitted to 84 statistically selected hospitals. The effect of risk adjustment using the HCFA model, which is based on claims data, was compared to a risk-adjustment model based on physiologic and clinical data. Models that include claims data were markedly superior to those containing only demographic characteristics in predicting the probability of patient death, and the addition of clinical data resulted in further improvement. The correlation of ranks of hospitals based on a model that uses only the claims data and on one that uses, in addition, clinical data, was .91. As a screen for the identification of "high (mortality) outlier" hospitals, the claims model had moderate sensitivity (81 percent) and specificity (79 percent), a high negative predictive value (90 percent), and a low positive predictive value (64 percent) when compared to the clinical model. The two mortality models gave similar results when used to determine which structural characteristics of hospitals were related to mortality rates: hospitals with a higher proportion of registered nurses or board-certified physician specialists, or with a greater level of access to high-technology equipment had lower risk-adjusted mortality rates. These data suggest that the current claims-based risk-adjustment procedure may satisfactorily be used to characterize variations in mortality rates associated with hospitalization. The procedure could also be used as a basis for further epidemiological analyses of factors that affect the probability of patient death. However, it does not positively identify outlier hospitals as providers of problematic care.

Mortality rates for Medicare patients who underwent coronary artery bypass surgery were compared with those who had angioplasty or angioplasty and bypass surgery. Two data sets were used for this study: The first contained information on demographic factors, co-morbidities and subsequent mortality on all 96,666 Medicare patients who had bypass surgery or angioplasty in 1985; the second contained additional detailed clinical data collected using the MedisGroups method on a random sample of 2,931 revascularization patients from 6 states. From the national data set 30-day and 1-year mortality rates were 3.8 and 8.2% for 25,423 angioplasty patients and 6.4 and 11.8% for 71,243 bypass surgery patients (p less than 0.001 for both time periods). Mortality rates for the MedisGroups data were 4.4 and 8.5% for the angioplasty patients and 6.5 and 11.9% for the bypass surgery patients. After eliminating patients admitted with a myocardial infarction, mortality rates were 1.9 and 6.0% for 632 angioplasty patients and 5.1 and 10.8% for 1,730 bypass surgery patients. The risk-adjusted relative risk of mortality for bypass surgery versus angioplasty was 1.72 (p = 0.001) for all patients, 2.15 (p less than 0.001) for low-risk patients and 0.90 (p = not significant) for high-risk patients. Results suggest that low-risk patients have better survival with angioplasty because of lower short-term mortality.

In patients with multiple sclerosis (MS), the apparently uninvolved cerebral white matter between demyelinated plaques may have biochemical abnormalities. To what degree the changes in the white matter contribute to symptomatology in MS is unknown. In 39 patients with multiple sclerosis, and in 39 age-matched nondiseased volunteers, T1 and T2 were calculated from spin-echo images in four regions of apparently uninvolved white matter. In three of four white matter areas, the average T1 and T2 were significantly longer in the patients than in the controls. The T1 correlated with the disability, measured by the Kurtzke Extended Disability Status Scale, although the correlation was marginally significant. The results suggest that in patients with MS, white matter disease that is not visualized in MR as distinct foci of abnormal signal intensity may contribute to disease burden and disability.

A hospital's quality of care is generally assessed by a review of individual records. This study used unadjusted and risk-adjusted complication rates to measure the quality of care for hospitals that perform coronary artery bypass surgery or angioplasty. Hospitals differed greatly in their complication rates. Only a small percentage of this difference was due to differences in the risks that patients faced.

Objective: This study examines the differences in the rates of coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) between white and black Medicare patients., Design: This is a cross-sectional study with data from the 1986 Health Care Financing Administration hospital claims records on all Medicare patients, the 1988 update of the Bureau of Health Professions area resource file, and the 1985 Census Bureau's county population estimates file., Setting: Data are from all Medicare patients in the United States in 1986., Main Outcome Measures: Sex- and age-adjusted CABG rates for whites and blacks over the age of 65 years were computed for each of 50 states and 305 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSAs)., Results: Nationally the CABG rate was 27.1 per 10,000 for whites (40.4 for white men and 16.2 for white women), but only 7.6 for blacks (9.3 for black men and 6.4 for black women). Racial differences were greater in the Southeast, particularly in nonmetropolitan areas, than in other regions. Neither white nor black SMSA rates were associated with the rate of admission for acute myocardial infarction (an indication of the amount of coronary artery disease). White rates, but not black rates, were associated with the number of thoracic surgeons per 100,000 people., Conclusions: For patients insured by Medicare, race is strongly associated with CABG rates, and this association is greater for men than for women and greater in the Southeast than in other parts of the country. Physician supply may relate to the CABG rates for whites.

Objective: To determine the pattern and frequency of allogeneic bone marrow transplantation from related and unrelated donors from 1988 to 1990., Design and Setting: Survey of 342 institutions in 47 countries., Measurements: Numbers of patients receiving bone marrow transplantation for specific disease categories at institutions with active allogeneic bone marrow transplant programs., Main Results: Patients (14,745) received allogeneic bone marrow transplantation between 1988 and 1990; of these, 1153 (8%) were from unrelated donors. Reasons for transplantation were acute leukemia (47%), chronic myelogenous leukemia (27%), lymphoma and other malignancies (10%), severe aplastic anemia (9%), and other nonmalignant diseases (7%). The number of allogeneic bone marrow transplants per million persons differed among countries, averaging 7.7 per million in North America and 5.7 per million in western Europe., Conclusions: The use of allogeneic bone marrow transplantation continued to increase at a rate of more than 600 additional patients and 25 new transplant teams annually. This rise is due in part to increasing use of unrelated volunteers as donors. Resources allocated for transplants vary widely among countries.

Complex factors determine how physicians select between alternative therapies. We conducted a survey of 352 leukemia experts to determine consensus regarding optimal treatment for leukemia and to identify factors correlated with therapy decisions. The study evaluated both general treatment policies and recommendations for specific clinical situations. Responses of chemotherapy, allotransplant and autotransplant experts were compared. Although responses of these groups were similar for general treatment policies, recommendations for specific cases differed substantially. Interestingly, responses of the three groups to some clinical situations also differed from conclusions of several published studies examining these issues. These data suggest that experts may discount published results in favor of personal experiences, perceptions of the best treatment strategy (based on published data or not) or available resources.

The number of allogeneic BMTs performed worldwide continues to increase. In addition, the characteristics of patients, donors, and selected treatments are changing. In BMT for leukemia during the 1980s there was a marked increase in transplants for early disease, the use of unrelated donors, and utilization of preparative regimens without radiation. Although treatment-related mortality declined during this period, there was only a modest decrease in relapse rates, indicating the need for more effective antileukemia strategies. The IBMTR collects data from many centers, and, as a consequence, it is uniquely suited to examine clinical situations in which patient accrual at a single institution would be insufficient for a study to be performed. In such analyses, BMT was shown to be an effective treatment for Ph1-positive ALL. Patients tended to have earlier relapses and lower probabilities of LFS than Ph1-negative ALL but the differences were not statistically significant. BMT was also shown to be effective in patients with acute leukemia failing to ever go into remission, most of whom would die within the first 6 months following diagnosis. The IBMTR is a premier example of international scientific collaboration. Its success is a consequence of the desire of investigators throughout the world to combine their clinical data for statistical analysis in order to accelerate and improve patient care.

Among patients with ALL and irrespective of disease state at transplant, highly significant improvements in treatment-related mortality, relapse and leukemia-free survival were observed during the 1980's. Although these results are encouraging, further reductions in treatment-related toxicity and posttransplant relapse are needed to achieve additional advances in the 1990's.

The authors measured the T1 and T2 of cerebral tissue in 164 volunteers aged 5-90 years and correlated T1 and T2 with age, gender, and various demographic variables. A weak correlation with statistical significance was found between age and T1 and T2 in white and gray matter structures. The T1 and T2 in the telencephalon increased by about 0.1% per year. No correlation of T1 or T2 with any other demographic, life-style, or medical factors was found.

To determine which characteristics of hospitals may be related to a higher quality of care, the association of hospital characteristics with the outcomes of medical record review by state Peer Review Organizations (PROs) was studied. The two data sources were: 1) the AHA 1986 Annual Survey of Hospitals and 2) reviews completed between July 1987 through June 1988 from six large PROs. For each hospital the percentage of cases that failed physician review (the confirmed problem rate) was computed. Hospital characteristics evaluated included financial status, ownership, medical training, technological sophistication, and size. The following characteristics were significantly associated with a lower confirmed problem rate: a higher occupancy rate, greater payroll expenses per bed, a higher proportion of physicians who were board-certified specialists, greater technological sophistication, a higher number of beds, a higher proportion of nurses who were registered, and membership in the Council of Teaching Hospitals. Public hospitals had higher problems rates than private not-for-profit hospitals. All characteristics significantly related to higher confirmed problem rates were also related to higher adjusted mortality rates in a previous study of 3,100 U.S. hospitals. The results suggest that hospital resources, including financial status, training of medical personnel, and availability of sophisticated equipment, are related to the quality of care provided by the hospital.

This study uses 44 consecutive months of data from the Health Care Financing Administration to assess seasonal trends in hip fracture incidence among the United States white population aged 65 years and older. The authors studied a total of 621,387 cases of hip fracture which occurred from January 1984 to September 1987. During the study period, hip fracture incidence rates display a distinctive pattern of seasonal periodicity; high rates are found in the winter and low rates in the summer among both males and females. This pattern of seasonal periodicity is consistent at ages 65-74 years, 75-84 years, and greater than or equal to 85 years. When the time series of rates are stratified into five geographic levels, each level covering 5 degrees of latitude, the distinctive pattern of seasonal periodicity is the same for all levels.

The independent association of waist to hip ratio (WHR), relative weight, and family history with the prevalence of non-insulin dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM) was investigated in a population of 25,254 White females in the United States and Canada. A multivariate logistic analysis yielded standardized odds ratios of 1.47, 1.46, 1.54, and 1.14 for family history index, WHR, relative weight, and age, respectively.

Replacement therapy with surfactant extracts in premature infants with respiratory distress syndrome has been evaluated in several clinical trials. The results of individual trials do not provide conclusive evidence that administration of a single dose of surfactant improves morbidity or mortality. Meta-analysis is a statistical method to combine the results of such clinical trials, and combined analysis provides a means to overcome the problem of not being able to detect significant small differences in individual trials due to these small sample sizes. Seven clinical trials (277 patients treated with nonhuman surfactant extract and 263 controls) met the criteria for analysis; five outcome measurements (mortality, patent ductus arteriosus, pneumothorax, intraventricular hemorrhage, and bronchopulmonary dysplasia) were selected to estimate the treatment effect. The meta-analysis showed that a single dose of surfactant administered before the first breath or within 15 hours of birth significantly decreased the mortality rate (95% confidence interval = -0.19 to -0.03) and the risk of developing pneumothorax (95% confidence interval = -0.28 to 0.14) in infants with respiratory distress syndrome. Further clinical trials are needed to evaluate other aspects of surfactant replacement therapy in premature infants because inconsistent results were observed among the seven analyzed studies.

We reviewed the 18 disease-specific evaluations that used the data base of the International Bone Marrow Transplant Registry to determine the effectiveness of alternative strategies for bone marrow transplant. We identify 17 treatment variables that physicians can control and report the associations between these variables and five clinical endpoints: stable engraftment, graft-versus-host disease, development of interstitial pneumonia, relapse, and disease-free survival. We also suggest policies to promote active participation in establishing and operating a registry.

In the spirit of openness and service to mankind, scientific investigators should rise above their self-interests and share their research data. The leap necessary to ascend above one's personal best interests defies gravity. This short paper discusses the complexities of creating a zero gravity environment in the scientific community.

Data were obtained from the Health Care Financing Administration and the Department of Veterans Affairs (formerly called Veterans Administration) on all hospital discharges among the elderly population from 1984 through 1987 and combined with census estimates to calculate incidence rates of hip fracture for the elderly population of the United States. Rates for White women were the highest, reaching 35.4 per 1,000 per year among 95 year-olds. Comparably, White men, Black women, and Black men experienced similar age-related increases in risk, although of less magnitude and relatively less rate of change, respectively.

A questionnaire comprised of a series of clinical vignettes illustrating potential difficulties in diagnosis, grading and treatment of chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) was completed by 65 bone marrow transplant physicians from 51 transplant centers worldwide. The concordance index (CI) for responses to each question was calculated using the formula CI = 2p-1, where p was the percentage agreement among respondents. Possible responses ranged from 0 (no agreement) to 1.00 (perfect agreement). Responses indicated moderate (CI = 0.55), high (CI = 0.88) and moderate (CI = 0.54) agreement among transplanters for diagnosis, grading and treatment of chronic GVHD, respectively. Disagreement was observed in (1) diagnosis of uncommon manifestations of chronic GVHD; (2) in interpretation of symptoms which occur less than 2 months after transplant; (3) in interpretation of persistent stable symptoms; and (4) in deciding whether to treat chronic GVHD limited to skin. The results point to potential problem areas in designing and interpreting clinical trials to prevent or treat chronic GVHD and highlight the need for improved diagnostic criteria.

In this study of 208 patients attending a Primary Care Medical Clinic of a metropolitan teaching hospital, objective measurements were used to assess the effect of discontinuous care as a result of resident turnover on patient appointment-keeping behavior. A change of resident resulted in no significant difference in return visit failure rate, subsequent appointment-keeping rate, or number of patients expressing new problems or requiring chronic therapy plan changes.