54 results on '"Ricardo Tomé"'
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52. Dynamical and statistical downscaling of a global seasonal hindcast in eastern Africa
- Author
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Grigory Nikulin, Shakeel Asharaf, María Eugenia Magariño, Sandro Calmanti, Rita M. Cardoso, Jonas Bhend, Jesús Fernández, María Dolores Frías, Kristina Fröhlich, Barbara Früh, Sixto Herrera García, Rodrigo Manzanas, José Manuel Gutiérrez, Ulf Hansson, Michael Kolax, Mark A. Liniger, Pedro M.M. Soares, Christoph Spirig, Ricardo Tome, and Klaus Wyser
- Subjects
Meteorology. Climatology ,QC851-999 ,Social sciences (General) ,H1-99 - Abstract
Within the FP7 EUPORIAS project we have assessed the utility of dynamical and statistical downscaling to provide seasonal forecast for impact modelling in eastern Africa. An ensemble of seasonal hindcasts was generated by the global climate model (GCM) EC-EARTH and then downscaled by four regional climate models and by two statistical methods over eastern Africa with focus on Ethiopia. The five-month hindcast includes 15 members, initialised on May 1 st covering 1991–2012. There are two sub-regions where the global hindcast has some skill in predicting June–September rainfall (northern Ethiopia – northeast Sudan and southern Sudan - northern Uganda). The regional models are able to reproduce the predictive signal evident in the driving EC-EARTH hindcast over Ethiopia in June–September showing about the same performance as their driving GCM. Statistical downscaling, in general, loses a part of the EC-EARTH signal at grid box scale but shows some improvement after spatial aggregation. At the same time there are no clear evidences that the dynamical and statistical downscaling provide added value compared to the driving EC-EARTH if we define the added value as a higher forecast skill in the downscaled hindcast, although there is a tendency of improved reliability through the downscaling. The use of the global and downscaled hindcasts as input for the Livelihoods, Early Assessment and Protection (LEAP) platform of the World Food Programme in Ethiopia shows that the performance of the LEAP platform in predicting humanitarian needs at the national and sub-national levels is not improved by using downscaled seasonal forecasts. Keywords: Seasonal forecast, Eastern Africa, Downscaling, Drought early-warning system
- Published
- 2018
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53. Mudanças climáticas nas regiões insulares
- Author
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Ricardo Tomé, Miranda, Pedro Manuel Alberto, and Azevedo, Eduardo Manuel Vieira de Brito
- Subjects
Regionalização ,Regionalization ,Madeira ,EC-Earth ,Climatologia ,Climate Change ,Açores ,Azores ,Alteração Climática - Abstract
Tese de Doutoramento, Física, 27 de Novembro de 2013, Universidade dos Açores. Resultados de uma nova geração de modelos climáticos, forçados pelos cenários RCP8.5 e RCP4.5 de concentrações atmosféricas de gases de estufa e aerossol, estabelecidos pelo IPCC para o seu quinto relatório ainda em preparação, são utilizados para caracterizar o clima nas ilhas dos Açores e da Madeira e a sua resposta ao aquecimento global em curso. A metodologia aqui desenvolvida recorre ao novo modelo global EC-Earth, a dados da reanálise ERA-Interim e a resultados de um extenso conjunto de simulações com o modelo de investigação WRF, utilizando, pela primeira vez, uma metodologia dinâmica para a regionalização de campos globais para resoluções suficientemente finas, nas quais se representa explicitamente uma parte do efeito das ilhas e da sua complexidade topográfica. Os resultados aqui analisados sugerem aumentos da temperatura média superiores a 1 ᵒC a meio do século XXI nos Açores e da Madeira, atingindo valores superiores a 2,5 ᵒC no final do século, acompanhados por uma redução da precipitação anual da ordem dos 10% nos Açores mas que poderá atingir os 30% na Madeira. Estas alterações são suficientemente grandes para justificar impactos muito alargados sobre os ecossistemas insulares e sobre a população humana. Os resultados apresentados mostram a vantagem de utilização da metodologia proposta, em especial para uma representação adequada do regime de precipitação em ilhas de topografia complexa, sugerindo mesmo a necessidade de resoluções mais elevadas em trabalhos futuros. ABSTRACT: Results from a new generation of climate models, forced by scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 of greenhouse gases and aerosols atmospheric concentrations, established by the IPCC for its fifth report still in preparation, are used to characterize the climate of the islands Azores and Madeira and its response to the ongoing global warming. The methodology developed here uses the new global model EC-Earth, the data from the ERA-Interim reanalysis and the results of an extensive set of simulations with the WRF research model, using for the first time, a dynamic approach to the regionalization of global fields for sufficiently fine resolutions, in which it explicitly represents a part of the islands and the effect of topographical complexity. The results reviewed here suggest increases in temperature above 1 ᵒC in the middle of the XXI century in the Azores and Madeira, reaching values higher than 2,5 ᵒC at the end of the century, accompanied by a reduction of the annual rainfall of around 10% in the Azores but which could reach 30% in Madeira. These changes are large enough to justify much broader impacts on island ecosystems and the human population. The results show the advantage of using the proposed methodology, in particular for adequate representation of the precipitation regime in the islands of complex topography, even suggesting the need for higher resolutions in future work.
54. Comparison of Surgical Procedures in the Treatment of Hip Periprosthetic Infection.
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Branco RT and Rodrigues EB
- Abstract
Objective The present study aimed to compare the cure rate recovery time and Merle d'Aubigné-Postel functional (MAPF) score after single-stage surgery (C1T) or two-stage surgery (C2T) to treat prosthetic infections of the hip considering sociodemographic and clinical features of the patients. Materials and Methods The present retrospective study occurred in a single center from 2011 to 2014 with 37 studied cases including 26 treated with C1T and 11 with C2T. We compared the cure rate recovery time and MAPF score in the two groups as well as the sociodemographic and clinical features of the patients. We also considered surgical complications and the most common infectious agents. Results The C1T group had a faster functional recovery than the C2T group but there were no significant differences in the cure rate surgical complications or MAPF score. However C1T group patients were significantly younger which may have influenced the outcomes. Staphylococcus spp. was the most common infectious agent (62%). Conclusion Although C2T appears superior regarding infection cure C1T may be preferable for faster functional recovery. However it is critical to consider individual patient characteristics when choosing treatment. Further research with a larger sample size is required to confirm these results., Competing Interests: Conflito de Interesses Os autores declaram não haver conflito de interesses., (Sociedade Brasileira de Ortopedia e Traumatologia. This is an open access article published by Thieme under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonDerivative-NonCommercial License, permitting copying and reproduction so long as the original work is given appropriate credit. Contents may not be used for commercial purposes, or adapted, remixed, transformed or built upon. ( https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ ).)
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- 2023
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