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Ice shelf dynamics play a key role in the climate. Melt-rates along the ice shelf-ocean interface are an important aspect in determining the character of global sea level rise. A representation of ice shelf melt is currently implemented in various z-level General Circulation Models (GCMs) by employing parameterisations of the small scale boundary layer dynamics. However, these parameterisations are strongly dependent on the near boundary flow and at the spatial scales for which GCMs are intended the boundary layer is not well resolved. We investigate the ability of a GCM in representing these small scale boundary effects. This is done using MITgcm in an idealised setting with a sloping ice-ocean interface.

The interaction between Ice-Shelves and the Ocean is an important component of the response of ice sheets to future warming oceans. Observational data in the ocean boundary layer beneath ice shelves is limited and the turbulent flow in the boundary layer is not well characterised. Our work uses small scale (9m depth) direct numerical simulations (DNS) of the Ice-Shelf-Ocean Boundary Layer, inspired by field observations made beneath the George VI Ice Shelf. Here, warm water has been observed directly beneath the ice shelf, and yet the observed melt rates are modest. To study this scenario, we simulate a forced turbulent flow underlying an ice shelf where the ice base is represented by a dynamic melting boundary condition. As the ice melts, a pool of relatively cold, fresh water develops below the ice base. Thermal diffusion causes the underlying water to cool and can drive turbulent convection. At the same time, the salinity gradient in the halocline is stabilising, but develops over a longer time scale. As a result, two flow regimes exist: one with active turbulent convection driven by double-diffusion of heat and salt, and the other with stratified turbulence leading to mixing of the halocline. By varying control parameters, we identify the transition between the flow regimes in terms of the temperature contrast (thermal driving) and the level of turbulence in the far field. We consider the behaviour of the diapycnal buoyancy flux near the ice base, and it provides insight into the drivers of both the double-diffusive convection and its modification by ambient turbulence. Finally, we discuss how the double-diffusive process we have described applies to real-world ice-shelf ocean boundary layers, and how it may be quantified within observations.

We describe a versatile apparatus for measuring the permeability of porous materials using oscillatory flows. The permeabilities are measured by an original spectral analysis of the pressure and fluid-displacement signals. The measurements are shown to be in very good agreement with classical drainage experiments performed on the same device. Our apparatus and methodology will be useful if small fluid displacements are required, for example in reactive porous media.

Suture zones are abundant on Antarctic ice shelves and widely observed to impede fracture propagation, greatly enhancing ice-shelf stability. Using seismic and radar observations on the Larsen C Ice Shelf of the Antarctic Peninsula, we confirm that such zones are highly heterogeneous, consisting of multiple meteoric and marine ice bodies of diverse provenance fused together. Here we demonstrate that fracture detainment is predominantly controlled by enhanced seawater content in suture zones, rather than by enhanced temperature as previously thought. We show that interstitial seawater can reduce fracture-driving stress by orders of magnitude, promoting both viscous relaxation and the development of micro cracks, the incidence of which scales inversely with stress intensity. We show how simple analysis of viscous buckles in ice-penetrating radar data can quantify the seawater content of suture zones and their modification of the ice-shelf’s stress regime. By limiting fracture, enhancing stability and restraining continental ice discharge into the ocean, suture zones act as vital regulators of Antarctic mass balance., Suture zones are abundant on Antarctic ice shelves and widely observed to impede fracture propagation. Here we show that fracture detainment is principally controlled by the zones’ enhanced seawater contents, reducing fracture-driving stresses by orders of magnitude and therefore greatly enhancing stability.

In the Southern Ocean the Antarctic Circumpolar Current is significantly steered by large topographic features, and subpolar gyres form in their lee. The geometry of topographic features in the Southern Ocean is highly variable, but the influence of this variation on the large-scale flow is poorly understood. Using idealized barotropic simulations of a zonal channel with a meridional ridge, it is found that the ridge geometry is important for determining the net zonal volume transport. A relationship is observed between ridge width and volume transport that is determined by the form stress generated by the ridge. Gyre formation is also highly reliant on the ridge geometry. A steep ridge allows gyres to form within regions of unblocked geostrophic (f/H) contours, with an increase in gyre strength as the ridge width is reduced. These relationships among ridge width, gyre strength, and net zonal volume transport emerge to simultaneously satisfy the conservation of momentum and vorticity.

During the second half of the twentieth century, the Antarctic Peninsula was subjected to a rapid increase in air temperatures. This was accompanied by a reduction in sea ice extent, increased precipitation and a dramatic retreat of glaciers associated with an increase in heat flux from deep ocean water masses. Isotopic tracers have been used previously to investigate the relative importance of the different freshwater sources to the adjacent Bellingshausen Sea (BS), but the data coverage is strongly biased toward summer. Here we use a regional model to investigate the ocean's response to the observed changes in its different freshwater inputs (sea ice melt/freeze, precipitation, evaporation, iceberg/glacier melt, and ice shelf melt). The model successfully recreates BS water masses and performs well against available freshwater data. By tracing the sources and pathways of the individual components of the freshwater budget, we find that sea ice dominates seasonal changes in the total freshwater content and flux, but all sources make a comparable contribution to the annual-mean. Interannual variability is dominated by sea ice and precipitation. Decadal trends in the salinity and stratification of the ocean are investigated, and a 20-year surface freshening from 1992 to 2011 is found to be predominantly driven by decreasing autumn sea ice growth. These findings will help to elucidate the role of freshwater in driving circulation and water column structure changes in this climatically-sensitive region.

The first fully synchronous, coupled ice shelf-ocean model with a fixed grounding line and imposed upstream ice velocity has been developed using the MITgcm (Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model). Unlike previous, asynchronous, approaches to coupled modeling our approach is fully conservative of heat, salt, and mass. Synchronous coupling is achieved by continuously updating the ice-shelf thickness on the ocean time step. By simulating an idealized, warm-water ice shelf we show how raising the pycnocline leads to a reduction in both ice-shelf mass and back stress, and hence buttressing. Coupled runs show the formation of a western boundary channel in the ice-shelf base due to increased melting on the western boundary due to Coriolis enhanced flow. Eastern boundary ice thickening is also observed. This is not the case when using a simple depth-dependent parameterized melt, as the ice shelf has relatively thinner sides and a thicker central “bulge” for a given ice-shelf mass. Ice-shelf geometry arising from the parameterized melt rate tends to underestimate backstress (and therefore buttressing) for a given ice-shelf mass due to a thinner ice shelf at the boundaries when compared to coupled model simulations.

We assess the impact of El Niño-induced wind changes on seasonal West Antarctic sea ice concentrations using reanalysis data and sea ice observations. A novel ice budget analysis reveals that in autumn a previously identified east-west dipole of sea ice concentration anomalies is formed by dynamic and thermodynamic processes in response to El Niño-generated circulation changes. The dipole features decreased (increased) concentration in the Ross Sea (Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas). Thermodynamic processes and feedback make a substantial contribution to ice anomalies in all seasons. The eastward propagation of this anomaly is partly driven by mean sea ice drift rather than anomalous winds. Our results demonstrate that linkages between sea ice anomalies and atmospheric variability are highly nonlocal in space and time. Therefore, we assert that caution should be applied when interpreting the results of studies that attribute sea ice changes without accounting for such temporally and spatially remote linkages.

We use borehole optical televiewing (OPTV) to explore the internal structure of Larsen C Ice Shelf (LCIS). We report a suite of five ~90 m long OPTV logs, recording a light-emitting diode-illuminated, geometrically correct image of the borehole wall, from the northern and central sectors of LCIS collected during austral spring 2014 and 2015. We use a thresholding-based technique to estimate the refrozen ice content of the ice column and exploit a recently calibrated density-luminosity relationship to reveal its structure. All sites are dense and strongly influenced by surface melt, with frequent refrozen ice layers and mean densities, between the depths of 1.87 and 90 m, ranging from 862 to 894 kg m−3. We define four distinct units that comprise LCIS and relate these to ice provenance, dynamic history, and past melt events. These units are in situ meteoric ice with infiltration ice (U1), meteoric ice which has undergone enhanced densification (U2), thick refrozen ice (U3), and advected continental ice (U4). We show that the OPTV-derived pattern of firn air content is consistent with previous estimates, but that a significant proportion of firn air is contained within U4, which we interpret to have been deposited inland of the grounding line. The structure of LCIS is strongly influenced by the E-W gradient in fohn-driven melting, with sites close to the Antarctic Peninsula being predominantly composed of refrozen ice. Melting is also substantial toward the ice shelf center with >40% of the overall imaged ice column being composed of refrozen ice.

Variability in the heat delivery by Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) is responsible for modulating the basal melting of the Amundsen Sea ice shelves. However, the mechanisms controlling the CDW inflow to the region’s continental shelf remain little understood. Here, a high-resolution regional model is used to assess the processes governing heat delivery to the Amundsen Sea. The key mechanisms are identified by decomposing CDW temperature variability into two components associated with 1) changes in the depth of isopycnals [heave (HVE)], and 2) changes in the temperature of isopycnals [water mass property changes (WMP)]. In the Dotson–Getz trough, CDW temperature variability is primarily associated with WMP. The deeper thermocline and shallower shelf break hinder CDW access to that trough, and CDW inflow is regulated by the uplift of isopycnals at the shelf break—which is itself controlled by wind-driven variations in the speed of an undercurrent flowing eastward along the continental slope. In contrast, CDW temperature variability in the Pine Island–Thwaites trough is mainly linked to HVE. The shallower thermocline and deeper shelf break there permit CDW to persistently access the continental shelf. CDW temperature in the area responds to wind-driven modulation of the water mass on-shelf volume by changes in the rate of inflow across the shelf break and in Ekman pumping-induced vertical displacement of isopycnals within the shelf. The western and eastern Amundsen Sea thus represent distinct regimes, in which wind forcing governs CDW-mediated heat delivery via different dynamics.

In recent decades, rapid ice-shelf disintegration along the Antarctic Peninsula has had a global impact through enhancing outlet glacier flow, and hence sea level rise, and the freshening of Antarctic Bottom Water. Ice shelf thinning due to basal melting results from the circulation of relatively warm water in the underlying ocean cavity. However, the effect of sub-shelf circulation on future ice-shelf stability cannot be predicted accurately with computer simulations if the geometry of the ice-shelf cavity is unknown. To address this deficit for Larsen C Ice Shelf, west Antarctica, we integrate new water-column thickness measurements with existing observations. We present these new data here along with an updated bathymetry grid of the ocean cavity. Key findings include relatively deep seabed to the south-east of the Kenyon Peninsula, along the grounding line and around the key ice shelf pinning point of Bawden Ice Rise. In addition, we can confirm that the cavity’s southern trough stretches from Mobiloil Inlet to the open ocean. These areas of deep seabed will influence ocean circulation and tidal mixing, and will therefore affect the basal-melt distribution. These results will help constrain models of ice-shelf cavity circulation with the aim of improving our understanding of sub-shelf processes and their potential influence on ice shelf stability. The data set comprises all point measurements of seabed depth and a gridded data product, derived using additional measurements of both offshore seabed depth and the thickness of grounded ice. We present all new depth measurements here as well as a compilation of previously published measurements used in the gridding process. The gridded data product is included in the supplementary material. The underlying seismic data sets which were used to determine bed depth and ice thickness are available at https://doi.org/10.5285/315740B1-A7B9-4CF0-9521-86F046E33E9A (Brisbourne et al., 2019), https://doi.org/10.5285/5D63777D-B375-4791-918F-9A5527093298 (Booth, 2019), https://doi.org/10.5285/FFF8AFEE-4978-495E-9210-120872983A8D (Kulessa and Bevan, 2019) and https://doi.org/10.5285/147BAF64-B9AF-4A97-8091-26AEC0D3C0BB (Booth et al., 2019).

Observed changes in Antarctic sea ice are poorly understood, in part due to the complexity of its interactions with the atmosphere and ocean. A highly simplified, coupled sea ice–ocean mixed layer model has been developed to investigate the importance of sea ice–ocean feedbacks on the evolution of sea ice and the ocean mixed layer in two contrasting regions of the Antarctic continental shelf ocean: the Amundsen Sea, which has warm shelf waters, and the Weddell Sea, which has cold and saline shelf waters. Modeling studies where we deny the feedback response to surface air temperature perturbations show the importance of feedbacks on the mixed layer and ice cover in the Weddell Sea to be smaller than the sensitivity to surface atmospheric conditions. In the Amundsen Sea the effect of surface air temperature perturbations on the sea ice are opposed by changes in the entrainment of warm deep waters into the mixed layer. The net impact depends on the relative balance between changes in sea ice growth driven by surface perturbations and basal-driven melting. The changes in the entrainment of warm water in the Amundsen Sea were found to have a much larger impact on the ice volume than perturbations in the surface energy budget. This creates a net negative ice albedo feedback in the Amundsen Sea, reversing the sign of this typically positive feedback mechanism.

Recent ice loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has been caused by ocean melting of ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea. Eastward wind anomalies at the shelf break enhance the import of warm Circumpolar Deep Water onto the Amundsen Sea continental shelf, which creates transient melting anomalies with an approximately decadal period. No anthropogenic influence on this process has been established. Here, we combine observations and climate model simulations to suggest that increased greenhouse gas forcing caused shelf-break winds to transition from mean easterlies in the 1920s to the near-zero mean zonal winds of the present day. Strong internal climate variability, primarily linked to the tropical Pacific, is superimposed on this forced trend. We infer that the Amundsen Sea experienced decadal ocean variability throughout the twentieth century, with warm anomalies gradually becoming more prevalent, offering a credible explanation for the ongoing ice loss. Existing climate model projections show that strong future greenhouse gas forcing creates persistent mean westerly shelf-break winds by 2100, suggesting a further enhancement of warm ocean anomalies. These wind changes are weaker under a scenario in which greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized. Anthropogenic changes in Antarctic shelf-break winds from the 1920s onwards have contributed to ice loss in the Amundsen Sea, along with natural variability, suggests an analysis of observations and model simulations.

The response of the subpolar Southern Ocean (sSO) to wind forcing is assessed using satellite radar altimetry. sSO sea level exhibits a phased, zonally coherent, bi‐modal adjustment to circumpolar wind changes, involving comparable seasonal and interannual variations. The adjustment is effected via a quasi‐instantaneous exchange of mass between the Antarctic continental shelf and the sSO to the north, and a 2‐month‐delayed transfer of mass between the wider Southern Ocean and the subtropics. Both adjustment modes are consistent with an Ekman‐mediated response to variations in surface stress. Only the fast mode projects significantly onto the surface geostrophic flow of the sSO, thus the regional circulation varies in phase with the leading edge of sSO sea level variability. The surface forcing of changes in the sSO system is partly associated with variations of surface winds linked to the Southern Annular Mode, and is modulated by sea ice cover near Antarctica.

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models simulate a wide range of historical sea ice areas. Even models with areas close to observed values may contain compensating errors, affecting reliability of their projections. This study focuses on the seasonal cycle of sea ice, including analysis of model concentration budgets. Many models have insufficient autumn ice growth, leading to large winter biases. A subset of models accurately represent sea ice evolution year‐round. However, comparing their winter ice concentration budget to observations reveals a range of behaviors. At least one model has an accurate ice budget, which is only possible due to realistic ice drifts. The CMIP5 generation of model physics and resolution is therefore structurally capable of accurately representing processes in Antarctic sea ice. This implies that substantially improved projections of Antarctic dense ocean water formation and ice sheet melting are possible with appropriate subsetting of existing climate models.

The top 2000 m of the Southern Ocean has freshened and warmed over recent decades. However, the high-latitude (south of 50°S) southeast Pacific was observed to be cooler and fresher in the years 2008–10 compared to 2005–07 over a wide depth range including surface, mode, and intermediate waters. The causes and impacts of this event are analyzed using the ocean–sea ice data-assimilating Southern Ocean State Estimate (SOSE) and observationally based products. In 2008–10, a strong positive southern annular mode coincided with a negative El Niño–Southern Oscillation and a deep Amundsen Sea low. Enhanced meridional winds drove strong sea ice export from the eastern Ross Sea, bringing large amounts of ice to the Amundsen Sea ice edge. In 2008, together with increased precipitation, this introduced a strong freshwater anomaly that was advected eastward by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), mixing along the way. This anomaly entered the ocean interior not only as Antarctic Intermediate Water, but also as lighter Southeast Pacific Subantarctic Mode Water (SEPSAMW). A numerical particle release experiment carried out in SOSE showed that the Ross Sea sector was the dominant source of particles reaching the SEPSAMW formation region. This suggests that large-scale climate fluctuations can induce strong interannual variability of volume and properties of SEPSAMW. These fluctuations act at different time scales: instantaneously via direct forcing and also lagged over advective time scales of several years from upstream regions.

The Arctic sea ice cover of 2016 was highly noteworthy, as it featured record low monthly sea ice extents at the start of the year but a summer (September) extent that was higher than expected by most seasonal forecasts. Here we explore the 2016 Arctic sea ice state in terms of its monthly sea ice cover, placing this in the context of the sea ice conditions observed since 2000. We demonstrate the sensitivity of monthly Arctic sea ice extent and area estimates, in terms of their magnitude and annual rankings, to the ice concentration input data (using two widely used datasets) and to the averaging methodology used to convert concentration to extent (daily or monthly extent calculations). We use estimates of sea ice area over sea ice extent to analyse the relative “compactness” of the Arctic sea ice cover, highlighting anomalously low compactness in the summer of 2016 which contributed to the higher-than-expected September ice extent. Two cyclones that entered the Arctic Ocean during August appear to have driven this low-concentration/compactness ice cover but were not sufficient to cause more widespread melt-out and a new record-low September ice extent. We use concentration budgets to explore the regions and processes (thermodynamics/dynamics) contributing to the monthly 2016 extent/area estimates highlighting, amongst other things, rapid ice intensification across the central eastern Arctic through September. Two different products show significant early melt onset across the Arctic Ocean in 2016, including record-early melt onset in the North Atlantic sector of the Arctic. Our results also show record-late 2016 freeze-up in the central Arctic, North Atlantic and the Alaskan Arctic sector in particular, associated with strong sea surface temperature anomalies that appeared shortly after the 2016 minimum (October onwards). We explore the implications of this low summer ice compactness for seasonal forecasting, suggesting that sea ice area could be a more reliable metric to forecast in this more seasonal, “New Arctic”, sea ice regime.

The heat is on Rising surface air temperatures are understood to cause glacial melting, but it is becoming increasingly clear that the ocean also has a strong impact. Cook et al. studied glaciers that drain the Antarctic Peninsula and found a strong correlation between mid-depth ocean temperatures and glacier-front changes along the peninsula's western coastline. Glaciers in the south, which are exposed to warmer waters, have undergone significant retreat, while those in the northwest, which terminate in cooler waters, have not retreated as much or as uniformly. Thus, ocean-induced melting appears to be the main cause of glacial retreat in the region. Science , this issue p. 283

Carbon emissions from industrial sources are of major global concern, especially contributions from the steel manufacturing process which accounts for the majority of emissions. Typical blast furnace gases consist of CO2 (20-25%), CO (20-25%), H2 (3-5%) and N2 (40-50%) and trace amounts of other gases. It is demonstrated that gas mixtures with these compositions can be used at atmospheric pressure to grow carbon nanotubes (CNTs) by chemical vapor deposition (CVD) on to steel substrates, which act as catalysts for CNT growth. Computational modelling was used to investigate the CNT growth conditions inside the CVD chamber. The results show that industrial waste pollutant gases can be used to manufacture materials with significant commercial value, in this case CNTs.

Sea-ice formation is a key factor in the lower branch of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation. Observation-based data in conjunction with a water-mass transformation framework reveal that sea ice plays a central role in the upper branch too.

By thinning and accelerating, West Antarctic ice streams are contributing about 10% of the observed global sea level rise. Much of this ice loss is from Pine Island Glacier, which has thinned since at least 1992, driven by changes in ocean heat transport beneath its ice shelf and retreat of the grounding line. Details of the processes driving this change, however, remain largely elusive, hampering our ability to predict the future behaviour of this and similar systems. Here, a Lagrangian methodology is developed to measure oceanic melting of such rapidly advecting ice. High-resolution satellite and airborne observations of ice surface velocity and elevation are used to quantify patterns of basal melt under the Pine Island Glacier ice shelf and the associated adjustments to ice flow. At the broad scale, melt rates of up to 100 m yr−1 occur near the grounding line, reducing to 30 m yr−1 just 20 km downstream. Between 2008 and 2011, basal melting was largely compensated by ice advection, allowing us to estimate an average loss of ice to the ocean of 87 km3 yr−1, in close agreement with 2009 oceanographically-constrained estimates. At smaller scales, a network of basal channels typically 500 m to 3 km wide is sculpted by concentrated melt, with kilometre-scale anomalies reaching 50% of the broad-scale basal melt. Basal melting enlarges the channels close to the grounding line, but farther downstream melting tends to diminish them. Kilometre-scale variations in melt are a key component of the complex ice-ocean interaction beneath the ice shelf, implying that greater understanding of their effect, or very high resolution models, are required to predict the sea-level contribution of the region.

An established rift in the Larsen C Ice Shelf, formerly constrained by a suture zone containing marine ice, grew rapidly during 2014 and is likely in the near future to generate the largest calving event since the 1980s and result in a new minimum area for the ice shelf. Here we investigate the recent development of the rift, quantify the projected calving event and, using a numerical model, assess its likely impact on ice shelf stability. We find that the ice front is at risk of becoming unstable when the anticipated calving event occurs.

Persistent outflow of supercooled Ice Shelf Water (ISW) from beneath McMurdo Ice Shelf creates a sub-ice platelet layer (SIPL) having a unique crystallographic structure under the sea ice in McMurdo Sound (MMS), Antarctica. A new frazil-ice-laden ISW plume model that encapsulates the combined nonlinear effects of the vertical distributions of supercooling and frazil ice concentration (FIC) on frazil ice growth is applied to MMS, and is shown to reproduce the observed ISW supercooling and SIPL distributions. Using this model, the dependence of SIPL thickening rate on ISW supercooling in MMS is investigated. Results are found to be sensitive to the choice of frazil ice suspension index, which determines the vertical distribution of FIC. For each suspension index, SIPL thickening rate can be expressed as an exponential function of ISW supercooling. The complex dependence on FIC highlights the need to improve frazil ice observations within the ice-ocean boundary layer.

Year-round variability in the Ross Gyre (RG), Antarctica, during 2011–2015, is derived using radar altimetry. The RG is characterized by a bounded recirculating component and a westward throughflow to the south. Two modes of variability of the sea surface height and ocean surface stress curl are revealed. The first represents a large-scale sea surface height change forced by the Antarctic Oscillation. The second represents semiannual variability in gyre area and strength, driven by fluctuations in sea level pressure associated with the Amundsen Sea Low. Variability in the throughflow is also linked to the Amundsen Sea Low. An adequate description of the oceanic circulation is achieved only when sea ice drag is accounted for in the ocean surface stress. The drivers of RG variability elucidated here have significant implications for our understanding of the oceanic forcing of Antarctic Ice Sheet melting and for the downstream propagation of its ocean freshening footprint.

It has been suggested that the presence of frazil ice can lead to a conditional instability in seawater. Any frazil forming in the water column reduces the bulk density of a parcel of frazil–seawater mixture, causing it to rise. As a result of the pressure decrease in the freezing point, this causes more frazil to form, causing the parcel to accelerate, and so on. This study uses linear stability analysis and a nonhydrostatic ocean model to study this instability. The authors find that frazil ice growth caused by the rising of supercooled water is indeed able to generate a buoyancy-driven instability. Even in a gravitationally stable water column, the frazil ice mechanism can still generate convection. The instability does not operate in the presence of strong density stratification, high thermal driving (warm water), a small initial perturbation, high background mixing, or the prevalence of large frazil ice crystals. In an unstable water column, the instability is not necessarily expressed in frazil ice at all times; an initial frazil perturbation may melt and refreeze. Given a large enough initial perturbation, this instability can allow significant ice growth. A model shows frazil ice growth in an Ice Shelf Water plume several kilometers from an ice shelf, under similar conditions to observations of frazil ice growth under sea ice. The presence of this instability could be a factor affecting the growth of sea ice near ice shelves, with implications for Antarctic Bottom Water formation.

2016 was an interesting year in the Arctic, with record low sea ice at the start of the year, but a summer (September) Arctic sea ice extent that was higher than expected by most seasonal forecasts. Here we explore the 2016 Arctic sea ice state in terms of its monthly sea ice cover, placing this in context of the sea ice conditions observed since 2000. We demonstrate the sensitivity of monthly Arctic sea ice extent and area estimates, in terms of their magnitude and annual rankings, to the ice concentration input data (using two widely used datasets) and to the methodology used to convert concentration to extent (daily or monthly extent calculations). We use estimates of sea ice area to analyse the relative 'compactness' of the Arctic sea ice cover, highlighting anomalously low compactness in the summer of 2016 which contributed to the higher than expected September ice extent. Two cyclones that entered the Arctic Ocean during August appear to have driven this low concentration/compactness ice cover, but were not sufficient to cause more widespread melt out and a new record low September ice extent. We use concentration budgets to explore the regions and processes (thermodynamics/dynamics) contributing to the monthly 2016 extent/area estimates highlighting, amongst other things, rapid ice intensification across the central eastern Arctic through September. Two different products show significant early melt onset across the Arctic Ocean in 2016, including record early melt onset in the North Atlantic sector of the Arctic. Our results also show record late 2016 freeze up in the Central Arctic, North Atlantic. and the Alaskan Arctic sector in particular, associated with strong sea surface temperature anomalies that appeared shortly after the 2016 minimum (October onwards). We explore the implications of this low summer ice compactness for seasonal forecasting, suggesting that sea ice area could be a more reliable metric to forecast in this more seasonal, 'New Arctic', sea ice regime.

Idealized modeling studies have shown that the melting of ice shelves varies as a quadratic function of ocean temperature. However, this result is the equilibrium response, derived from steady ice–ocean simulations subjected to a fixed ocean forcing. This study considers instead the transient response of melting, using unsteady simulations subjected to forcing conditions that are oscillated with a range of periods. The results show that the residence time of water in the subice cavity offers a critical time scale. When the forcing varies slowly (period of oscillation ≫ residence time), the cavity is fully flushed with forcing anomalies at all stages of the cycle and melting follows the equilibrium response. When the forcing varies rapidly (period ≤ residence time), multiple cold and warm anomalies coexist in the cavity, cancelling each other in the spatial mean and thus inducing a relatively steady melt rate. This implies that all ice shelves have a maximum frequency of ocean variability that can be manifested in melting. Between these two extremes, an intermediate regime occurs in which melting follows the equilibrium response during the cooling phase of the forcing cycle, but deviates during warming. The results show that ice shelves forced by warm water have high melt rates, high equilibrium sensitivity, and short residence times and hence a short time scale over which the equilibrium sensitivity is manifest. The most rapid melting adjustment is induced by warm anomalies that are also saline. Thus, ice shelves in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas, Antarctica, are highly sensitive to ocean change.

Cold and dense ice shelf water (ISW) emerging from the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf cavity in the southwestern Weddell Sea flows northward through the Filchner Depression to eventually descend the con- tinental slope and contribute to the formation of bottom water. New ship-born observations of hydrogra- phy and currents from Filchner Depression in January 2013 suggest that the northward flow of ISW takes place in a middepth jet along the eastern flank of the depression, thus questioning the traditional view with outflow along the western flank. This interpretation of the data is supported by results from a regional numerical model, which shows that ISW flowing northward along the eastern coast of Berkner Island turns eastward and crosses the depression to its eastern side upon reaching the Filchner ice front. The ice front represents a sudden change in the thickness of the water column and thus a potential vorticity barrier. Transport estimates of northward ISW flux based on observations ranges from 0.2 to 1.0 Sv. publishedVersion

The Antarctic shelf seas are a climatically and ecologically important region, and are at present receiving increasing amounts of freshwater from the melting of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and its fringing ice shelves1, 2, primarily around the Antarctic Peninsula and the Amundsen Sea. In response, the surface ocean salinity in this region has declined in past decades3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9. Here, we assess the effects of the freshwater input on regional sea level using satellite measurements of sea surface height (for months with no sea-ice cover) and a global ocean circulation model. We find that from 1992 to 2011, sea-level rise along the Antarctic coast is at least 2 ± 0.8 mm yr-1 greater than the regional mean for the Southern Ocean south of 50° S. On the basis of the model simulations, we conclude that this sea-level rise is almost entirely related to steric adjustment, rather than changes in local ocean mass, with a halosteric rise in the upper ocean and thermosteric contributions at depth. We estimate that an excess freshwater input of 430 ± 230 Gt yr-1 is required to explain the observed sea-level rise. We conclude that accelerating discharge from the Antarctic Ice Sheet has had a pronounced and widespread impact on the adjacent subpolar seas over the past two decades.

For the first time, we compute the sea-ice concentration budget of a fully coupled climate model, the Australian ACCESS model, in order to assess its realism in simulating the autumn–winter evolution of Antarctic sea ice. The sea-ice concentration budget consists of the local change, advection and divergence, and the residual component which represents the net effect of thermodynamics and ridging. Although the model simulates the evolution of sea-ice area reasonably well, its sea-ice concentration budget significantly deviates from the observed one. The modelled sea-ice budget components deviate from observed close to the Antarctic coast, where the modelled ice motion is more convergent, and near the ice edge, where the modelled ice is advected faster than observed due to inconsistencies between ice velocities. In the central ice pack the agreement between the model and observations is better. Based on this, we propose that efforts to simulate the observed Antarctic sea-ice trends should focus on improving the realism of modelled ice drift.

Observations beneath the floating section of Pine Island Glacier have revealed the presence of a subglacial ridge which rises up to 300 m above the surrounding bathymetry. This topographic feature probably served as a steady grounding line position until sometime before the 1970s, when an ongoing phase of rapid grounding line retreat was initiated. As a result, a large ocean cavity has formed behind the ridge, strongly controlling the ocean circulation beneath the ice shelf and modulating the ocean water properties that cause ice melting in the vicinity of the grounding line. In order to understand how melt rates have changed during the various phases of cavity formation, we use a high-resolution ocean model to simulate the cavity circulation for a series of synthetic geometries. We show that the height of the ridge and the gap between the ridge and ice shelf strongly control the inflow of warm bottom waters into the cavity, and hence the melt rates. Model results suggest a rapid geometrically controlled increase of meltwater production at the onset of ice thinning, but a weak sensitivity to geometry once the gap between the ridge and ice shelf has passed a threshold value of about 200 m. This provides evidence for a new, coupled, ice-ocean feedback acting to enhance the initial retreat of an ice stream from a bedrock high. The present gap is over 200 m, and our results suggest that observed variability in melt rates is now controlled by other factors, such as the depth of the thermocline.

Ice shelf fractures frequently terminate where they encounter suture zones, regions of material heterogeneity that form between meteoric inflows in ice shelves. This heterogeneity can consist of marine ice, meteoric ice with modified rheological properties, or the presence of fractures. Here, we use radar observations on the Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctica, to investigate (i) the termination of a 25km long rift in the Churchill Peninsula suture zone, which was found to contain similar to 60m of accreted marine ice, and (ii) the along-flow evolution of a suture zone originating at Cole Peninsula. We determine a steady state field of basal melting/freezing rates and apply it to a flowline model to delineate the along-flow evolution of layers within the ice shelf. The thickening surface wedge of locally accumulated meteoric ice, which likely has limited lateral variation in its mechanical properties, accounts for similar to 60% of the total ice thickness near the calving front. Thus, we infer that the lower similar to 40% of the ice column and the material heterogeneities present there are responsible for resisting fracture propagation and thereby delaying tabular calving events, as demonstrated in the >40year time series leading up to the 2004/2005 calving event for Larsen C. This likely represents a highly sensitive aspect of ice shelf stability, as changes in the oceanic forcing may lead to the loss of this heterogeneity.

Seismic reflection soundings of ice thickness and seabed depth were acquired on the Larsen C Ice Shelf in order to test a sub-shelf bathymetry model derived from the inversion of IceBridge gravity data. A series of lines were collected, from the Churchill Peninsula in the north to the Joerg Peninsula in the south, and also towards the ice front. Sites were selected using the bathymetry model derived from the inversion of free-air gravity data to indicate key regions where sub-shelf oceanic circulation may be affected by ice draft and sub-shelf cavity thickness. The seismic velocity profile in the upper 100 m of firn and ice was derived from shallow refraction surveys at a number of locations. Measured temperatures within the ice column and at the ice base were used to define the velocity profile through the remainder of the ice column. Seismic velocities in the water column were derived from previous in situ measurements. Uncertainties in ice and water cavity thickness are in general

[1] The presence of ice-shelf basal channels has been noted in a number of Antarctic and Greenland ice shelves, but their impact on basal melting is not fully understood. Here we use the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model to investigate the effect of ice-shelf basal channels on oceanic melt rate for an idealized ice shelf resembling the floating tongue of Petermann Glacier in Greenland. The introduction of basal channels prevents the formation of a single geostrophically balanced boundary current; instead the flow is diverted up the right-hand (Coriolis-favored) side of each channel, with a return flow in the opposite direction on the left-hand side. As the prescribed number of basal channels is increased the mean basal melt rate decreases, in agreement with previous studies. For a small number of relatively wide channels the subice flow is found to be a largely geostrophic horizontal circulation. The reduction in melt rate is then caused by an increase in the relative contribution of weakly melting channel crests and keels. For a larger number of relatively narrow channels, the subice flow changes to a vertical overturning circulation. This change in circulation results in a weaker sensitivity of melt rates to channel size. The transition between the two regimes is governed by the Rossby radius of deformation. Our results explain why basal channels play an important role in regulating basal melting, increasing the stability of ice shelves.

West Antarctic Ice Sheet loss is a significant contributor to sea level rise. While the ice loss is thought to be triggered by fluctuations in oceanic heat at the ice shelf bases, ice sheet response to ocean variability remains poorly understood. Using a synchronously coupled ice-ocean model permitting grounding line migration, this study evaluates the response of an ice sheet to periodic variations in ocean forcing. Resulting oscillations in grounded ice volume amplitude is shown to grow as a nonlinear function of ocean forcing period. This implies that slower oscillations in climatic forcing are disproportionately important to ice sheets. The ice shelf residence time offers a critical time scale, above which the ice response amplitude is a linear function of ocean forcing period and below which it is quadratic. These results highlight the sensitivity of West Antarctic ice streams to perturbations in heat fluxes occurring at decadal time scales.

The exchange between the open ocean and sub–ice shelf cavities is important to both water mass transformations and ice shelf melting. Here, the authors use a high-resolution (500 m) numerical model to investigate to which degree eddies produced by frontal instability at the edge of a polynya are capable of transporting dense high-salinity shelf water (HSSW) underneath an ice shelf. The applied surface buoyancy flux and ice shelf geometry is based on Ronne Ice Shelf in the southern Weddell Sea, an area of intense wintertime sea ice production where a flow of HSSW into the cavity has been observed. Results show that eddies are able to enter the cavity at the southwestern corner of the polynya where an anticyclonic rim current intersects the ice shelf front. The size and time scale of simulated eddies are in agreement with observations close to the Ronne Ice Front. The properties and strength of the inflow are sensitive to the prescribed total ice production, flushing the ice shelf cavity at a rate of 0.2–0.4 × 106 m3 s−1 depending on polynya size and magnitude of surface buoyancy flux. Eddy-driven HSSW transport into the cavity is reduced by about 50% if the model grid resolution is decreased to 2–5 km and eddies are not properly resolved.

[1] Antarctic ice shelves are fed primarily by the glaciers flowing into them. Downstream of promontories separating these glaciers, supercooled water can rise and freeze into suture zones, leading to the accretion of marine ice. Marine ice bodies have been found in several Antarctic ice shelves, but little is known about their detailed geometry, rate of accretion, or influence on ice dynamics. In this study, we investigate marine ice in a suture zone downstream of the Joerg Peninsula in the southern part of the Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula. We present ground penetrating radar data from which we infer the base of the meteoric ice and, in combination with GPS data and assuming hydrostatic equilibrium, estimate marine ice thickness within a suture zone. We show that the Joerg Peninsula suture zone contains marine ice layer, which is increasing in thickness along flow from ~140 m to 180 m over 20 km, implying an average basal accretion rate of ~0.5 m a−1 in our study area. We examined the impact of this inferred marine ice on ice shelf dynamics by modeling the suture zone within an ice flow model. The results, which replicate observed surface velocities and strain rates, show that the warmer and thus softer ice of the suture zone serves to channel shear deformation. This enables decoupling of neighboring flow units with different flow velocities, while maintaining the structural integrity of the ice shelf.

Several different classes of ocean model are capable of representing floating glacial ice shelves. We describe the incorporation of ice shelves into Fluidity-ICOM, a nonhydrostatic finite-element ocean model with the capacity to utilize meshes that are unstructured and adaptive in three dimensions. This geometric flexibility offers several advantages over previous approaches. The model represents melting and freezing on all ice-shelf surfaces including vertical faces, treats the ice shelf topography as continuous rather than stepped, and does not require any smoothing of the ice topography or any of the additional parameterisations of the ocean mixed layer used in isopycnal or z-coordinate models. The model can also represent a water column that decreases to zero thickness at the ‘grounding line’, where the floating ice shelf is joined to its tributary ice streams. The model is applied to idealised ice-shelf geometries in order to demonstrate these capabilities. In these simple experiments, arbitrarily coarsening the mesh outside the ice-shelf cavity has little effect on the ice-shelf melt rate, while the mesh resolution within the cavity is found to be highly influential. Smoothing the vertical ice front results in faster flow along the smoothed ice front, allowing greater exchange with the ocean than in simulations with a realistic ice front. A vanishing water-column thickness at the grounding line has little effect in the simulations studied. We also investigate the response of ice shelf basal melting to variations in deep water temperature in the presence of salt stratification.

[1] An array of five moorings was deployed from February 2009 to February 2010 across the Antarctic shelf and slope in the southeastern Weddell Sea (~18°W). Observations demonstrate the key processes responsible for variability in water masses and transport in the region. Rapid fluctuations in temperature and salinity throughout the year are linked with variability in wind stress over the array. This causes the deepening or shoaling of the pycnocline, past the depth of the moorings. In the upper 500 m, the seasonal cycle in salinity shows freshening in autumn, with the strongest freshening at the shallowest mooring (~250 m), furthest on-shelf. The sea ice concentration over the array exceeds 90% during this period and contributes a positive salt flux into the ocean during autumn. Freshening begins during strong along-shore (easterly) winds in late April 2009. This demonstrates that variations in Ekman transport and wind-driven mixing play a key role in determining the salinity of shelf waters around Antarctica. Transport of the Antarctic Slope Current also shows a seasonal cycle with a maximum during late April. Model simulations show the importance of along-shore advection, as the arrival of a fresh anomaly from upstream determines the timing of the salinity minimum at the array. These processes are likely to be important for other regions around the Antarctic continent.

Previous work have shown that sea ice variability in the South Pacific is associated with extratropical atmospheric anomalies linked to the Southern Oscillation (SO). Over a 32 year period (1982–2013), our study shows that the trend in Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is also able to quantitatively explain the trends in sea ice edge, drift, and surface winds in this region. On average two thirds of the winter ice edge trend in this sector, linked to ice drift and surface winds, could be explained by the positive SOI trend, thus subjecting the ice edge to strong decadal SO variability. If this relationship holds, the negative SOI trend prior to the recent satellite era suggests that ice edge trends opposite to that of the recent record over a similar time scale. Significant low-frequency ice edge trends, linked to the natural variability of SO, are superimposed upon any trends expected of anthropogenic forcing.

Carbon emissions from industrial sources are of major global concern, especially contributions from the steel manufacturing process which accounts for the majority of emissions. Typical blast furnace gases consist of CO2 (20-25%), CO (20-25%), H2 (3-5%) and N2 (40-50%) and trace amounts of other gases. It is demonstrated that gas mixtures with these compositions can be used at atmospheric pressure to grow carbon nanotubes (CNTs) by chemical vapor deposition (CVD) on to steel substrates, which act as catalysts for CNT growth. Computational modelling was used to investigate the CNT growth conditions inside the CVD chamber. The results show that industrial waste pollutant gases can be used to manufacture materials with significant commercial value, in this case CNTs.

We derive the terms in the Antarctic sea ice concentration budget from the output of three models, and compare them to observations of the same terms. Those models include two climate models from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and one ocean–sea ice coupled model with prescribed atmospheric forcing. Sea ice drift and wind fields from those models, in average over April-October 1992-2005, all exhibit large differences with the available observational or reanalysis datasets. However, the discrepancies between the two distinct ice drift products or the two wind reanalyses used here are sometimes even greater than those differences. Two major findings stand out from the analysis. Firstly, large biases in sea ice drift speed and direction in exterior sectors of the sea ice covered region tend to be systematic and consistent with those in winds. This suggests that sea ice errors in these areas are most likely wind-driven, so as errors in the simulated ice motion vectors. The systematic nature of these biases is less prominent in interior sectors, nearer the coast, where sea ice is mechanically constrained and its motion in response to the wind forcing more depending on the model rheology. Second, the intimate relationship between winds, sea ice drift and the sea ice concentration budget gives insight on ways to categorize models with regard to errors in their ice dynamics. In exterior regions, models with seemingly too weak winds and slow ice drift consistently yield a lack of ice velocity divergence and hence a wrong wintertime sea ice growth rate. In interior sectors, too slow ice drift, presumably originating from issues in the physical representation of sea ice dynamics as much as from errors in surface winds, leads to wrong timing of the late winter ice retreat. Those results illustrate that the applied methodology provides a valuable tool for prioritizing model improvements based on the ice concentration budget–ice drift biases–wind biases relationship prevailing in the simulation of Antarctic sea ice over the last decades.

In recent decades, Antarctic sea ice has expanded slightly while Arctic sea ice has contracted dramatically. The anthropogenic contribution to these changes cannot be fully assessed unless climate models are able to reproduce them. Process-based evaluation is needed to provide a clear view of the capabilities and limitations of such models. In this study, ice concentration and drift derived from AMSR-E data during 2003–10 are combined to derive a climatology of the ice concentration budget at both poles. This enables an observational decomposition of the seasonal dynamic and thermodynamic changes in ice cover. In both hemispheres, the results show spring ice loss dominated by ice melting. In other seasons ice divergence maintains freezing in the inner pack while advection causes melting at the ice edge, as ice is transported beyond the region where it is thermodynamically sustainable. Mechanical redistribution provides an important sink of ice concentration in the central Arctic and around the Antarctic coastline. This insight builds upon existing understanding of the sea ice cycle gained from ice and climate models, and the datasets may provide a valuable tool in validating such models in the future.

The thermodynamic balance of the Weddell Gyre is assessed from an inverse estimate of the circulation across the gyre's rim. The gyre experiences a weak net buoyancy gain that arises from a leading-order cancellation between two opposing contributions, linked to two cells of water mass transformation and diapycnal overturning. The lower cell involves a cooling-driven densification of 8.4 ± 2.0 Sv of Circumpolar Deep Water and Antarctic Bottom Water near the gyre's southern and western margins. The upper cell entails a freshening-driven conversion of 4.9 ± 2.0 Sv of Circumpolar Deep Water into lighter upper-ocean waters within the gyre interior. The distinct role of salinity between the two cells stems from opposing salinity changes induced by sea ice production, meteoric sources and admixture of fresh upper-ocean waters in the lower cell, which contrasts with coherent reductions in salinity associated with sea ice melting and meteoric sources in the upper cell.

The most rapid loss of ice from the Antarctic Ice Sheet is observed where ice streams flow into the ocean and begin to float, forming the great Antarctic ice shelves that surround much of the continent. Because these ice shelves are floating, their thinning does not greatly influence sea level. However, they also buttress the ice streams draining the ice sheet, and so ice shelf changes do significantly influence sea level by altering the discharge of grounded ice. Currently, the most significant loss of mass from the ice shelves is from melting at the base (although iceberg calving is a close second). Accessing the ocean beneath ice shelves is extremely difficult, so numerical models are invaluable for understanding the processes governing basal melting. This paper describes the different ways in which ice shelf/ocean interactions are modeled and discusses emerging directions that will enhance understanding of how the ice shelves are melting now and how this might change in the future.

The sea-ice cover around Antarctica has experienced a slight expansion in area over the past decades1, 2. This small overall increase is the sum of much larger opposing trends in different sectors that have been proposed to result from changes in atmospheric temperature or wind stress3, 4, 5, precipitation6, 7, ocean temperature8, and atmosphere or ocean feedbacks9, 10. However, climate models have failed to reproduce the overall increase in sea ice11. Here we present a data set of satellite-tracked sea-ice motion for the period of 1992–2010 that reveals large and statistically significant trends in Antarctic ice drift, which, in most sectors, can be linked to local winds. We quantify dynamic and thermodynamic processes in the internal ice pack and show that wind-driven changes in ice advection are the dominant driver of ice-concentration trends around much of West Antarctica, whereas wind-driven thermodynamic changes dominate elsewhere. The ice-drift trends also imply large changes in the surface stress that drives the Antarctic ocean gyres, and in the fluxes of heat and salt responsible for the production of Antarctic bottom and intermediate waters.

A numerical model for an interacting ice shelf and ocean is presented in which the ice- shelf base exhibits a channelized morphology similar to that observed beneath Petermann Gletscher’s (Greenland) floating ice shelf. Channels are initiated by irregularities in the ice along the grounding line and then enlarged by ocean melting. To a first approximation, spatially variable basal melting seaward of the grounding line acts as a steel-rule die or a stencil, imparting a channelized form to the ice base as it passes by. Ocean circulation in the region of high melt is inertial in the along-channel direction and geostrophically balanced in the transverse direction. Melt rates depend on the wavelength of imposed variations in ice thickness where it enters the shelf, with shorter wavelengths reducing overall melting. Petermann Gletscher’s narrow basal channels may therefore act to preserve the ice shelf against excessive melting. Overall melting in the model increases for a warming of the subsurface water. The same sensitivity holds for very slight cooling, but for cooling of a few tenths of a degree a reorganization of the spatial pattern of melting leads, surprisingly, to catastrophic thinning of the ice shelf 12 km from the grounding line. Subglacial discharge of fresh water along the grounding line increases overall melting. The eventual steady state depends on when discharge is initiated in the transient history of the ice, showing that multiple steady states of the coupled system exist in general.

A three-dimensional ocean general circulation model is used to study the response of idealized ice shelves to a series of ocean-warming scenarios. The model predicts that the total ice shelf basal melt increases quadratically as the ocean offshore of the ice front warms. This occurs because the melt rate is proportional to the product of ocean flow speed and temperature in the mixed layer directly beneath the ice shelf, both of which are found to increase linearly with ocean warming. The behavior of this complex primitive equation model can be described surprisingly well with recourse to an idealized reduced system of equations, and it is shown that this system supports a melt rate response to warming that is generally quadratic in nature. This study confirms and unifies several previous examinations of the relation between melt rate and ocean temperature but disagrees with other results, particularly the claim that a single melt rate sensitivity to warming is universally valid. The hypothesized warming does not necessarily require a heat input to the ocean, as warmer waters (or larger volumes of “warm” water) may reach ice shelves purely through a shift in ocean circulation. Since ice shelves link the Antarctic Ice Sheet to the climate of the Southern Ocean, this finding of an above-linear rise in ice shelf mass loss as the ocean steadily warms is of significant importance to understanding ice sheet evolution and sea level rise.

A drag law accounting for Ekman rotation adjacent to a flat, horizontal bou\ud ndary is proposed for use in\ud a plume model that is written in terms of the depth-mean velocity. The drag l\ud aw contains a variable turning\ud angle between the mean velocity and the drag imposed by the turbulent bound\ud ary layer. The effect of the\ud variable turning angle in the drag law is studied for a plume of ice shelf wat\ud er (ISW) ascending and turning\ud beneath an Antarctic ice shelf with draft decreasing away from the groundi\ud ng line. As the ISW plume\ud ascends the sloping ice shelf–ocean boundary, it can melt the ice shelf, wh\ud ich alters the buoyancy forcing\ud driving the plume motion. Under these conditions, the typical turning ang\ud le is of order\ud 10° over most of\ud the plume area for a range of drag coefficients (the minus sign arises for th\ud e Southern Hemisphere). The\ud rotation of the drag with respect to the mean velocity is found to be signifi\ud cant if the drag coefficient exceeds\ud 0.003; in this case the plume body propagates farther along and across the b\ud ase of the ice shelf than a plume\ud with the standard quadratic drag law with no turning angle.