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Limiting global warming to well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C, as agreed in the 2015 Paris Agreement, requires global carbon neutrality by mid-century at the latest. The corresponding carbon budget is decreasing steadily and significantly. To phase out carbon emissions in line with the specified temperature target, countries are formulating their mitigation efforts in their long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies (LT-LEDS). However, there are no standardized specifications for preparing these strategies, which is why the reports published to date differ widely in terms of structure and scope. To consider the multiple facets of reaching net-zero from a systemic perspective as comprehensively as possible, the authors propose the Net-Zero-2050 System: A novel, transferrable systems approach that supports the development of national endeavors toward carbon neutrality. The Net-Zero-2050 System is defined by three interconnected components: The Carbon-Emission-Based System, the surrounding Framing System and a set of system boundaries. For both systems levels, IPCC approaches were used as a basis and were then adjusted and supplemented by Net-Zero-2050. We suggest applying the Net-Zero-2050 System—beyond the project environment—in carbon emission based contexts at different levels. Especially at the national level, this would improve the comparability of the different national strategies to achieve carbon neutrality.

Climate change and plastics pollution are dual threats to marine environments. Here we use biogeochemical and microplastic modelling to show that even if there is complete removal of microplastics and cessation of deposition in the oceans in 2022, regional recovery from microplastic-induced remineralization and water column deoxygenation could take hundreds of years for coastal upwelling zones, the North Pacific and Southern Ocean. Surface stratification and reduced sea ice cover further impede regional recovery, highlighting the importance of aggressive mitigation of plastic pollution.

Quantifying changes in oceanic aerobic respiration is essential for understanding marine deoxygenation. Here we use an Earth system model to investigate if and to what extent oxygen utilization rate (OUR) can be used to track the temporal change of true respiration (Rtrue). Rtrue results from the degradation of particulate and dissolved organic matter in the model ocean, acting as ground truth to evaluate the accuracy of OUR. Results show that in thermocline and intermediate waters of the North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre (200–1,000 m), vertically integrated OUR and Rtrue both decrease by 0.2 molO2/m2/yr from 1850 to 2100 under global warming. However, in the mesopelagic Tropical South Atlantic, integrated OUR increases by 0.2 molO2/m2/yr, while the Rtrue integral decreases by 0.3 molO2/m2/yr. A possible reason for the diverging OUR and Rtrue is ocean mixing, which affects water mass composition and maps remote respiration changes to the study region. Key Points: - Our model study confirms earlier findings that oxygen utilization rate (OUR) underestimates true respiration (Rtrue) in mesopelagic ocean - Despite OUR underestimate Rtrue, OUR can adequately estimate long-term changes in Rtrue in the mesopelagic North Atlantic subtropical gyre - OUR cannot adequately estimate climate-driven changes in Rtrue in the mesopelagic tropical South Atlantic where different water masses mix

The current narrative of artificial upwelling (AU) is to translocate nutrient rich deep water to the ocean surface, thereby stimulating the biological carbon pump (BCP). Our refined narrative takes the response of the solubility pump and the CO2 emission scenario into account. Using global ocean-atmosphere model experiments we show that the effectiveness of a hypothetical maximum AU deployment in all ocean areas where AU is predicted to lower surface pCO2, the draw down of CO2 from the atmosphere during years 2020–2100 depends strongly on the CO2 emission scenario and ranges from 1.01 Pg C/year (3.70 Pg CO2/year) under RCP 8.5 to 0.32 Pg C/year (1.17 Pg CO2/year) under RCP 2.6. The solubility pump becomes equally effective compared to the BCP under the highest emission scenario (RCP 8.5), but responds with CO2 outgassing under low CO2 emission scenarios. Key Points: - Artificial upwelling (AU) effectiveness to draw down CO2 from the atmosphere is strongly dependent on the future CO2 emission scenario - The solubility pump becomes as effective as the biological carbon pump under high emission scenarios - Organic matter transfer efficiency decreases under AU, likely due to higher water temperatures below the ocean's surface

In this study, we investigate the maximum physical and biogeochemical potential of macroalgae open-ocean mariculture and sinking (MOS) as an ocean-based carbon dioxide removal (CDR) method. Embedding a macroalgae model into an Earth system model, we simulate macroalgae mariculture in the open-ocean surface layer followed by fast sinking of the carbon-rich macroalgal biomass to the deep seafloor (depth>3000 m), which assumes no remineralization of the harvested biomass during the quick sinking. We also test the combination of MOS with artificial upwelling (AU), which fertilizes the macroalgae by pumping nutrient-rich deeper water to the surface. The simulations are done under RCP 4.5, a moderate-emissions pathway. When deployed globally between years 2020 and 2100, the carbon captured and exported by MOS is 270 PgC, which is further boosted by AU of 447 PgC. Because of feedbacks in the Earth system, the oceanic carbon inventory only increases by 171.8 PgC (283.9 PgC with AU) in the idealized simulations. More than half of this carbon remains in the ocean after cessation at year 2100 until year 3000. The major side effect of MOS on pelagic ecosystems is the reduction of phytoplankton net primary production (PNPP) due to the competition for nutrients with macroalgae and due to canopy shading. MOS shrinks the mid-layer oxygen-minimum zones (OMZs) by reducing the organic matter export to, and remineralization in, subsurface and intermediate waters, while it creates new OMZs on the seafloor by oxygen consumption from remineralization of sunken biomass. MOS also impacts the global carbon cycle by reducing the atmospheric and terrestrial carbon reservoirs when enhancing the ocean carbon reservoir. MOS also enriches dissolved inorganic carbon in the deep ocean. Effects are mostly reversible after cessation of MOS, though recovery is not complete by year 3000. In a sensitivity experiment without remineralization of sunken MOS biomass, the whole of the MOS-captured carbon is p

The sentence “every second breath you take comes from the Ocean” is commonly used in Ocean Literacy and science communication to highlight the importance of Ocean oxygen. However, despite its widespread use, it is often not phrased correctly. In contrast, awareness about the threat of the global oxygen loss in the Ocean, called deoxygenation, is low, particularly in comparison with other important stressors, such as Ocean acidification or increasing seawater temperatures. Deoxygenation is increasing in the coastal and open Ocean, primarily due to human-induced global warming and nutrient run-off from land, and projections show that the Ocean will continue losing oxygen as global warming continues. The consequences of oxygen loss in the Ocean are extensive and include decreased biodiversity, shifts in species distributions, displacement or reduction in fisheries resources, changes in biogeochemical cycling and mass mortalities. Low oxygen conditions also drive other chemical processes which produce greenhouse gases, toxic compounds and further degrade water quality. Degraded water quality directly affects marine ecosystems, but also indirectly impacts ecosystem services supporting local communities, regional economies and tourism. Although there are still gaps in our knowledge, we know enough to be very concerned about the consequences: the impacts might even be larger than from Ocean acidification or heat waves, and three out of the five global mass extinctions were linked to Ocean deoxygenation. The sense of urgency to improve Ocean health is reflected in the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development and the EU Mission: Restore our Ocean and Waters, and tackling the loss of oxygen in the Ocean is critical to achieving the aims of these two initiatives.

The similarity of the average ratios of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in marine dissolved inorganic and particulate organic matter, dN:P and pN:P, respectively, indicates tight links between those pools in the world ocean. Here, we analyze this linkage by varying phytoplankton N and P subsistence quotas in an optimality-based ecosystem model coupled to an Earth system model. The analysis of our ensemble of simulations discloses various feedbacks between changes in the N and P quotas, N2 fixation, and denitrification that weaken the often-hypothesized tight coupling between dN:P and pN:P. We demonstrate the importance of particulate N:C and P:C ratios for regulating dN:P on the global scale, with marine oxygen level being an important control. Our analysis provides further insight into the potential interdependence of phytoplankton physiology and global climate conditions.

Ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) is a marine carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approach. Publicly funded research projects have begun, and philanthropic funding and start-ups are collectively pushing the field forward. This rapid progress in research activities has created an urgent need to learn if and how OAE can work at scale. The Best Practices Guide to OAE research contains 7 topics broken down into 13 chapters that compare and synthesise previously published methods and offer guidance for future research.

Phytoplankton forms the base of the marine food web by transforming CO2 into organic carbon via photosynthesis. Some of the organic carbon is then transferred through the food web and exported into the deep ocean, a process known as the biological carbon pump. Despite the importance of phytoplankton for marine ecosystems and the global carbon cycle, projections of phytoplankton biomass in response to climate change differ strongly across Earth system models, illustrating uncertainty in our understanding of the underlying processes. Differences are especially large in the Southern Ocean, a region that is notoriously difficult to represent in models. Here, we argue that water column-integrated phytoplankton biomass in the Southern Ocean is projected to largely remain unchanged under climate change by the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble because of a shifting balance of bottom-up and top-down processes driven by a shoaling mixed layer depth. A shallower mixed layer is projected to improve growth conditions and consequently weaken bottom-up control. In addition to enhanced phytoplankton growth, the shoaling of the mixed layer also compresses phytoplankton closer to the surface and promotes zooplankton grazing efficiency, thus intensifying top-down control. Overall, our results suggest that while changes in bottom-up conditions stimulate enhanced growth, intensified top-down control opposes an increase in phytoplankton and becomes increasingly important for phytoplankton response under climate change in the Southern Ocean.

The deliberate increase in ocean alkalinity (referred to as ocean alkalinity enhancement, or OAE) has been proposed as a method for removing CO2 from the atmosphere. Before OAE can be implemented safely, efficiently, and at scale several research questions have to be addressed, including (1) which alkaline feedstocks are best suited and the doses in which they can be added safely, (2) how net carbon uptake can be measured and verified, and (3) what the potential ecosystem impacts are. These research questions cannot be addressed by direct observation alone but will require skilful and fit-for-purpose models. This article provides an overview of the most relevant modelling tools, including turbulence-, regional-, and global-scale biogeochemical models and techniques including approaches for model validation, data assimilation, and uncertainty estimation. Typical bio- geochemical model assumptions and their limitations are discussed in the context of OAE research, which leads to an identification of further development needs to make models more applicable to OAE research questions. A description of typical steps in model validation is followed by proposed minimum criteria for what constitutes a model that is fit for its intended purpose. After providing an overview of approaches for sound integration of models and observations via data assimilation, the application of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) for observing system design is described within the context of OAE research. Criteria for model val- idation and intercomparison studies are presented. The article concludes with a summary of recommendations and potential pitfalls to be avoided.

Wie soll der Mensch den Klimawandel wirkungsvoll begrenzen? Oberste Priorität haben sicherlich Maßnahmen zur Vermeidung von Treibhausgas-Emissionen. Fakt ist mittlerweile aber auch, dass wir der Atmosphäre in den kommenden Jahrzehnten viel Kohlendioxid entnehmen und sicher einlagern müssen. Kann oder sogar muss uns der Ozean bei dieser Aufgabe helfen? Der neue „World Ocean Review“ (WOR Nr. 8) erläutert diese Frage anhand der Rolle des Ozeans im Kohlenstoffkreislauf der Erde und stellt Vorteile, Risiken und Wissenslücken zu den wichtigsten meeresbasierten Verfahren zur Kohlendioxid-Entnahme vor.

The Paris Agreement to limit global warming to well below 2 °C requires ambitious emission reduction and the balancing of remaining emissions through carbon sinks, i.e. the deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR). While ambitious climate protection scenarios until now consider primarily land-based CDR methods, there is growing concern about their potential to deliver sufficient CDR, and marine CDR options receive more and more interest. Based on idealized theoretical studies, Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement (OAE) appears as a promising marine CDR method. However, the knowledge base is insufficient for a robust assessment of its practical feasibility, of its side effects, social and governance aspects as well as monitoring, reporting and verification issues. A number of research efforts aim to improve this in a timely manner. We provide an overview on the current situation of developing OAE as marine CDR method, and describe the history that has led to the creation of the OAE research Best Practices Guide.

Ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) is a marine carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approach. Publicly funded research projects have begun, and philanthropic funding and start-ups are collectively pushing the field forward. This rapid progress in research activities has created an urgent need to learn if and how OAE can work at scale. The Best Practices Guide to OAE research contains 7 topics broken down into 13 chapters that compare and synthesise previously published methods and offer guidance for future research.

Public interest-oriented state control of research into climate engineering techniques - the Model London Protocol: Climate Engineering, including Carbon Dioxide Removal- and/or Solar Radiation Management-techniques, increasingly gets again into the public discussion on effective climate change policies. As most of these techniques are still in infancy, the question needs to be answered whether and how research and development should be controlled and governed by states. In this context, public funding may play an important role next to regulatory approaches.

The Paris Climate Agreement and the Importance of climate engineering: Stopping global warming requires Net-Zero CO2 emissions. Since it is not yet foreseeable that all emissions can be avoided by mid-century, the Net-Zero target set in the Paris Climate Agreement implies the use of CO2 removal methods that can be described as a category of climate engineering. Optimistic emission reduction scenarios assume that by mid-century, 5 to 15% of today's emissions will have to be offset by CO2 removal as difficult-to-avoid residual emissions. So-called "nature-based" solutions alone will not be sufficient to achieve this. Technical approaches will also have to be applied at large scale if the climate targets are to be achieved. None of these methods is ready for large-scale deployment today. Public research is needed and the societal debate on how to deal with residual emissions must begin quickly so that appropriate methods can be developed in time, well-informed societal decisions can be made about their eventual deployment, and mechanisms can be devised to regulate such deployment responsibly.

The consideration of marine biogeochemistry is essential for simulating the carbon cycle in an Earth system model. Here we present the implementation and evaluation of a marine biogeochemical model, Model of Oceanic Pelagic Stoichiometry (MOPS) in the Flexible Ocean and Climate Infrastructure (FOCI) climate model. FOCI-MOPS enables the simulation of marine biological processes, the marine carbon, nitrogen and oxygen cycles, air-sea gas exchange of CO2 and O2, and simulations with prescribed atmospheric CO2 or CO2 emissions. A series of experiments covering the historical period (1850–2014) were performed following the DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) and CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6) protocols. Overall, modelled biogeochemical tracer distributions and fluxes, as well as transient evolution in surface air temperature, air-sea CO2 fluxes, and changes of ocean carbon and heat, are in good agreement with observations. Modelled inorganic and organic tracer distributions are quantitatively evaluated by statistically-derived metrics. Results of the FOCI-MOPS model, also including sea surface temperature, surface pH, oxygen (100–600 m), nitrate (0–100 m), and primary production, are within the range of other CMIP6 model results. Overall, the evaluation of FOCI-MOPS indicates its suitability for Earth climate system simulations

In this study we investigate open-ocean macroalgae mariculture and sinking (MOS) as ocean-based carbon dioxide removal (CDR) method. Embedding a macroalgae model into an Earth system model, we simulate macroalgae mariculture in the open-ocean surface layer followed by fast sinking of the carbon-rich macroalgal biomass to the deep seafloor (depth > 3,000 m). We also test the combination of MOS with artificial upwelling (AU), which fertilizes the macroalgae by pumping nutrient-rich deeper water to the surface. The simulations are done under RCP4.5 a moderate emission pathway. When deployed globally between years 2020 and 2100, the simulated CDR potential of MOS is 270 PgC, which is further boosted by AU to 447 PgC. More than half of MOS-sequestered carbon retains in the ocean after cessation at year 2100 until year 3000. The major side effect of MOS on pelagic ecosystems is the reduction of phytoplankton net primary production (PNPP) due to the nutrient competition and canopy shading by macroalgae. MOS shrinks the mid layer oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) by reducing the organic matter export to, and remineralization in, subsurface and intermediate waters, while it creates new OMZs on the seafloor by oxygen consumption from remineralization of sunken biomass. MOS also impacts the global carbon cycle, reduces the atmospheric and terrestrial carbon reservoir when enhancing the ocean carbon reservoir. MOS also enriches the dissolved inorganic carbon in the deep ocean. Effects are mostly reversible after cessation of MOS, though recovery is not complete by year 3000. In a sensitivity experiment without remineralization of sunk MOS biomass, the entire MOS-captured carbon is permanently stored in the ocean, but the lack of remineralized nutrients causes a long-term nutrient decline in the surface layers and thus reduces PNPP. Our results suggest that MOS has a considerable potential as an ocean-based CDR method. However, MOS has inherent side effects on marine ecosystems and bi

The current narrative of artificial upwelling (AU) is to use ocean pipes to pump nutrient rich deep water to the ocean surface, thereby stimulating the biological carbon pump. This simplistic concept of AU does not take the response of the solubility pump or the CO2 emission scenario into account. Using global ocean-atmosphere model experiments and several idealized model tracers we show that the effectiveness of almost globally applied AU from the year 2020 to 2100 to draw down CO2 from the atmosphere is strongly dependent on the CO2 emission scenario and ranges from 1.01 Pg C / year under RCP 8.5 to 0.32 Pg C / year under RCP 2.6. The solubility pump becomes equally effective compared to the biological carbon pump under the highest emission scenario (RCP 8.5), but responds with CO2 outgassing under low CO2 emission scenarios. Key Points: • Artificial Upwelling effectiveness to draw down CO2 from the atmosphere is strongly dependent on the future CO2 emission scenario. • The solubility pump becomes as effective as the biological carbon pump under high emission scenarios. • Organic matter transfer efficiency decreases under artificial upwelling, likely due to higher water temperatures below the ocean’s surface.

Quantifying possible changes in oceanic aerobic respiration will contribute to the understanding of marine deoxygenation. Here we use a high-resolution Earth system model to investigate the ability of oxygen utilization rate (OUR) to track the temporal change of marine respiration. Results show that in intermediate waters of the North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre (200m-1000m), vertically integrated OUR shows the same trend as the model’s vertically integrated true respiration (decrease by around 0.2 $\mathrm{mol O_{2}/m^{2}/y}$) for the time period 1850 to 2100. However, in the mesopelagic Tropical South Atlantic, integrated OUR increases by 0.2 $\mathrm{mol O_{2}/m^{2}/y}$, while the local true respiration decreases by 0.3 $\mathrm{mol O_{2}/m^{2}/y}$. We identify changes in water mass mixing over time, affecting apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) and age in different ways, as one explanation for this divergence. Quantitatively assessing changes in aerobic respiration from OUR in a changing ocean will require accurate knowledge of changes in mixing processes.

Removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere will be required over the next decades to achieve the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C aiming at not exceeding 1.5°C. Technological and ecosystem-based options are considered for generating negative emissions through carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and several nations have already included these in their Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategies. However, strategies for development, implementation, and upscaling of CDR options often remain vague. Considering the scale at which CDR deployment is envisioned in emission pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C, significant environmental, social, and institutional implications are to be expected and need to be included in national feasibility assessments of CDR options. Following a multi-disciplinary and comprehensive approach, we created a framework that considers the environmental, technological, economic, social, institutional, and systemic implications of upscaling CDR options. We propose the framework as a tool to help guide decision-relevant feasibility assessments of CDR options, as well as identify challenges and opportunities within the national context. As such, the framework can serve as a means to inform and support decision makers and stakeholders in the iterative science-policy process of determining the role of CDR options in national strategies of achieving net-zero carbon emissions.

Germany 2050: For the first time Germany reached a balance between its sources of anthropogenic CO2 to the atmosphere and newly created anthropogenic sinks. This backcasting study presents a fictional future in which this goal was achieved by avoiding (∼645 Mt CO2), reducing (∼50 Mt CO2) and removing (∼60 Mt CO2) carbon emissions. This meant substantial transformation of the energy system, increasing energy efficiency, sector coupling, and electrification, energy storage solutions including synthetic energy carriers, sector-specific solutions for industry, transport, and agriculture, as well as natural-sink enhancement and technological carbon dioxide options. All of the above was necessary to achieve a net-zero CO2 system for Germany by 2050.

Key points: Models performing similarly with respect to global NO3, PO4, and O2 distributions yield diverse responses in marine N2 fixation to warming • Marine N2 fixation trends are sensitive to whether iron limits primary production in upwelling regions, for example, the Eastern Tropical Pacific Biological nitrogen fixation is an important oceanic nitrogen source, potentially stabilizing marine fertility in an increasingly stratified and nutrient-depleted ocean. Iron limitation of low latitude primary producers has been previously demonstrated to affect simulated regional ecosystem responses to climate warming or nitrogen cycle perturbation. Here we use three biogeochemical models that vary in their representation of the iron cycle to estimate change in the marine nitrogen cycle under a high CO2 emissions future scenario (RCP8.5). The first model neglects explicit iron effects on biology (NoFe), the second utilizes prescribed, seasonally-cyclic iron concentrations and associated limitation factors (FeMask), and the third contains a fully dynamic iron cycle (FeDyn). Models were calibrated using observed fields to produce near-equivalent nutrient and oxygen fits, with productivity ranging from 49 to 75 Pg C yr−1. Global marine nitrogen fixation increases by 71.1% with respect to the preindustrial value by the year 2100 in NoFe, while it remains stable (0.7% decrease in FeMask and 0.3% increase in FeDyn) in explicit iron models. The mitigation of global nitrogen fixation trend in the models that include a representation of iron originates in the Eastern boundary upwelling zones, where the bottom-up control of iron limitation reduces export production with warming, which shrinks the oxygen deficient volume, and reduces denitrification. Warming-induced trends in the oxygen deficient volume in the upwelling zones have a cascading effect on the global nitrogen cycle, just as they have previously been shown to affect tropical net primary production.

The Peruvian Upwelling System hosts an extremely high productive marine ecosystem. Observations show that the Peruvian Upwelling System is the only Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS) with an out-of-phase relationship of seasonal surface chlorophyll concentrations and upwelling intensity. This "seasonal paradox" triggers the questions: (1) what is the uniqueness of the Peruvian Upwelling System compared with other EBUS that leads to the out of phase relationship; (2) how does this uniqueness lead to low phytoplankton biomass in austral winter despite strong upwelling and ample nutrients? Using observational climatologies for four EBUS we diagnose that the Peruvian Upwelling System is unique in that intense upwelling coincides with deep mixed layers. We then apply a coupled regional ocean circulation-biogeochemical model (CROCO-BioEBUS) to assess how the interplay between mixed layer and upwelling is regulating the seasonality of surface chlorophyll in the Peruvian Upwelling System. The model recreates the "seasonal paradox" within 200 km off the Peruvian coast. We confirm previous findings that deep mixed layers, which cause vertical dilution and stronger light limitation, mostly drive the diametrical seasonality of chlorophyll relative to upwelling. In contrast to previous studies, reduced phytoplankton growth due to enhanced upwelling of cold waters and lateral advection are second-order drivers of low surface chlorophyll concentrations. This impact of deep mixed layers and upwelling propagates up the ecosystem, from primary production to export efficiency. Our findings emphasize the crucial role of the interplay of the mixed layer and upwelling and suggest that surface chlorophyll may increase along with a weakened seasonal paradox in response to shoaling mixed layers under climate change.