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Background:The ACCENT database, with individual patient data for 20 898 patients from 18 colon cancer clinical trials, was used to support Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval of 3-year disease-free survival as a surrogate for 5-year overall survival. We hypothesised substantive differences in survival estimation with log-normal modelling rather than standard Kaplan-Meier or Cox approaches.Methods:Time to relapse, disease-free survival, and overall survival were estimated using Kaplan-Meier, Cox, and log-normal approaches for male subjects aged 60-65 years, with stage III colon cancer, treated with 5-fluorouracil-based chemotherapy regimens (with 5FU), or with surgery alone (without 5FU).Results:Absolute differences between Cox and log-normal estimates with (without) 5FU varied by end point. The log-normal model had 5.8 (6.3)% higher estimated 3-year time to relapse than the Cox model; 4.8 (5.1)% higher 3-year disease-free survival; and 3.2 (2.2)% higher 5-year overall survival. Model checking indicated greater data support for the log-normal than the Cox model, with Cox and Kaplan-Meier estimates being more similar. All three model types indicate consistent evidence of treatment benefit on both 3-year disease-free survival and 5-year overall survival; patients allocated to 5FU had 5.0-6.7% higher 3-year disease-free survival and 5.3-6.8% higher 5-year overall survival.Conclusion:Substantive absolute differences between estimates of 3-year disease-free survival and 5-year overall survival with log-normal and Cox models were large enough to be clinically relevant, and warrant further consideration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The results of a serological survey of livestock in Kazakhstan, carried out in 1997-1998, are reported. Serum samples from 958 animals (cattle, sheep and goats) were tested for antibodies to foot and mouth disease (FMD), bluetongue (BT), epizootic haemorrhagic disease (EHD), rinderpest (RP) and peste des petits ruminants (PPR) viruses, and to Brucella spp. We also investigated the vaccination status of livestock and related this to changes in veterinary provision since independence in 1991. For the 2 diseases under official surveillance (FMD and brucellosis) our results were similar to official data, although we found significantly higher brucellosis levels in 2 districts and widespread ignorance about FMD vaccination status. The seroprevalence for BT virus was 23%, and seropositive animals were widespread suggesting endemicity, despite the disease not having being previously reported. We found a few seropositives for EHDV and PPRV, which may suggest that these diseases are also present in Kazakhstan. An hierarchical model showed that seroprevalence to FMD and BT viruses were clustered at the farm/village level, rather than at a larger spatial scale. This was unexpected for FMD, which is subject to vaccination policies which vary at the raion (county) level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Cetuximab-induced hypomagnesemia has been associated with improved clinical outcomes in advanced colorectal cancer (CRC). We explored this relationship from a randomized clinical trial of cetuximab plus best supportive care (BSC) versus BSC alone in patients with pretreated advanced CRC. Patients and methods Day 28 hypomagnesemia grade (0 versus ≥1) and percent reduction (<20% versus ≥20%) of Mg from baseline was correlated with outcome. Results The median percentage Mg reduction at day 28 was 10% (−42.4% to 63.0%) for cetuximab (N = 260) versus 0% (−21.1% to 25%) for BSC (N = 251) [P < 0.0001]. Grade ≥1 hypomagnesemia and ≥20% reduction from baseline at day 28 were associated with worse overall survival (OS) [hazard ratio, HR 1.61 (95% CI 1.12–2.33), P = 0.01 and 2.08 (95% CI 1.32–3.29), P = 0.002, respectively] in multivariate analysis including grade of rash (0–1 versus 2+). Dyspnea (grade ≥3) was more common in patients with ≥20% versus < 20% Mg reduction (68% versus 45%; P = 0.02) and grade 3/4 anorexia were higher in patients with grade ≥1 hypomagnesemia (81% versus 63%; P = 0.02). Conclusions In contrast to prior reports, cetuximab-induced hypomagnesemia was associated with poor OS, even after adjustment for grade of rash. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background: The interplay between comorbidity, age and performance status (PS) as predictors of outcome in advanced colorectal cancer (ACRC) is poorly understood. We examined these factors as predictors of treatment toxicity and outcome in cetuximab-treated patients with ACRC.Patients and methods: Comorbidity was independently evaluated using the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), a validated measure of comorbidity based on the presence of medical conditions weighted according to their effect on mortality. CCI score was correlated with clinical and outcome data.Results: Five hundred and seventy-two patients were included; 41% were ≥65 years and 25% had comorbidities at randomization. In multivariate analysis (MVA) of all covariates, only older age was associated with greater comorbidity (P = 0.008). Overall survival (OS) was significantly better for patients with greater comorbidity in univariate analysis (P = 0.047). Conversely, better PS was associated with better OS in MVA (hazard ratio 1.92 for PS = 2 versus PS = 0, P < 0.0001). Age was not associated with OS (P = 0.13). Elderly patients had significantly less grade ≥3 vomiting (P = 0.034) but more dyspnea (P = 0.005). Patients with greater comorbidity had significantly less grade ≥3 vomiting (P = 0.002) but more non-neutropenic fever (P = 0.005).Conclusion: Better PS was associated with improved OS. For patients with good PS, restricting cetuximab use in the setting of significant comorbidity does not appear justified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There is insufficient information regarding the prognostic significance of baseline and change in quality of life (QoL) scores on overall survival (OS) in advanced pancreatic cancer., Methods: QoL was assessed prospectively using the EORTC QLQ-C30 as part of the PA.3 trial of gemcitabine + erlotinib (G + E) vs. gemcitabine + placebo (G + P). Relevant variables and QoL scores at baseline and change at 8 weeks were analyzed by Cox stepwise regression to determine predictors of OS., Results: 222 of 285 patients (pts) treated with G + E and 220 of 284 pts treated with G + P completed baseline QoL assessments. In a multivariable Cox analysis combining all pts, better QoL physical functioning (PF) score independently predicted longer OS (HR 0.86; CI: 0.80-0.93), as did non-white race (HR 0.64; CI: 0.44-0.95), PS 0-1 (HR 0.65; CI: 0.50-0.85), locally advanced disease (HR 0.55; CI: 0.43-0.71) and G + E (HR 0.78; CI: 0.64-0.96). Improvement in physical function at week 8 also predicted for improved survival (HR 0.89; CI: 0.81-0.97 for 10 point increase in score, p = 0.02)., Conclusion: In addition to clinical variables, patient reported QoL scores at baseline and change from baseline to week 8 added incremental predictive information regarding survival for advanced pancreatic cancer patients., (Copyright © 2016 IAP and EPC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: Right- and left-sided colon cancers (RC, LC) differ with respect to biology, pathology and epidemiology. Previous data suggest a mortality difference between RC and LC. We examined if primary tumour side also predicts for outcome in chemotherapy refractory, metastatic colon cancer (MCC). We also compared RC versus LC as a predictor of efficacy of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) inhibition with cetuximab., Methods: Reanalyzing NCIC CO.17 trial (cetuximab versus best supportive care [BSC]), we coded the primary tumour side as RC (caecum to transverse colon) or LC (splenic flexure to rectosigmoid). The association between tumour side and baseline characteristics was assessed. Cox regression models determined factors affecting overall survival (OS) and progression free survival (PFS)., Results: Patients with RC (150/399) had more poorly differentiated, mutant KRAS, mutated PIK3CA and wild-type BRAF tumours, fewer liver and lung metastases, and shorter interval between diagnosis and study entry. Among BSC patients, tumour side was not prognostic for PFS (hazard ratios (HR) 1.07 [0.79-1.44], p = 0.67) or OS (HR 0.96 [0.70-1.31], p = 0.78). Among wild-type KRAS patients, those with LC had significantly improved PFS when treated with cetuximab compared to BSC (median 5.4 versus 1.8 months, HR 0.28 [0.18-0.45], p < 0.0001), whereas those with RC did not (median 1.9 versus 1.9 months, HR 0.73 [0.42-1.27], p = 0.26), [interaction p = 0.002]., Conclusion: In refractory MCC, tumour location within the colon is not prognostic, but is strongly predictive of PFS benefit from cetuximab therapy. Additional research is needed to understand the molecular differences between RC and LC and their interaction with EGFR inhibition., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: The effect of comorbidity, age and performance status (PS) on treatment of advanced pancreatic cancer is poorly understood. We examined these factors as predictors of outcome in advanced pancreatic cancer patients treated with gemcitabine +/- erlotinib., Patients and Methods: Comorbidity was evaluated by two physicians using the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and correlated with clinical outcome data from the NCIC Clinical Trials Group (NCIC CTG) PA.3 clinical trial., Results: Five hundred and sixty-nine patients were included; 47% were aged ≥ 65 years old, 36% had comorbidity (CCI>0). In multivariate analysis, neither age (p=0.22) nor comorbidity (p=0.21) was associated with overall survival. The baseline presence of better PS and lower pain intensity scores was associated with better overall survival (p < 0.0001 and p=0.01, respectively). An improvement in survival with the addition of erlotinib therapy was seen in patients age < 65 (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.73, p=0.01) or in the presence of comorbidity (adjusted HR 0.72, p=0.03). However, neither age nor CCI score was predictive of erlotinib benefit after test for interaction. Patients treated with gemcitabine plus erlotinib who were ≥ 65 years of age or those with comorbidity had a higher rate of infections ≥ grade 3., Conclusion: Low baseline pain intensity and better PS were associated with improved overall survival, while age and comorbidity were not independent prognostic factors for patients treated with gemcitabine-based therapy., (Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Ixodes scapularis is the principal tick vector of the Lyme borreliosis agent Borrelia burgdorferi and other tick-borne zoonoses in northeastern North America. The degree of seasonal synchrony of nymphal and larval ticks may be important in influencing the basic reproductive number of the pathogens transmitted by I. scapularis. Because the seasonal phenology of tick vectors is partly controlled by ambient temperature, climate and climate change could shape the population biology of tick-borne pathogens. We used projected monthly normal temperatures, obtained from the second version of the Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM2) under emissions scenario A2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for a site in southern Ontario, Canada, to simulate the phenology of I. scapularis in a mathematical model. The simulated seasonal abundance of ticks then determined transmission of three candidate pathogens amongst a population of white-footed mice (Peromyscus leucopus) using a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. Fitness of the different pathogens, in terms of resilience to changes in tick and rodent mortality, minima for infection duration, transmission efficiency and particularly any additional mortality of rodents specifically associated with infection, varied according to the seasonal pattern of immature tick activity, which was different under the temperature conditions projected for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. In each case, pathogens that were long-lived, highly transmissible and had little impact on rodent mortality rates were the fittest. However, under the seasonal tick activity patterns projected for the 2020s and 2050s, the fitness of pathogens that are shorter-lived, less efficiently transmitted, and more pathogenic to their natural hosts, increased. Therefore, climate change may affect the frequency and distribution of I. scapularis-borne pathogens and alter their evolutionary trajectories.

Fitness of tick-borne pathogens may be determined by the degree to which their infection dynamics in vertebrate hosts permits transmission cycles if infective and uninfected tick stages are active at different times of the year. To investigate this hypothesis we developed a simulation model that integrates the transmission pattern imposed by seasonally asynchronous nymphal and larval Ixodes scapularis ticks in northeastern North America, with a model of infection in white-footed mice (Peromyscus leucopus) reservoir hosts, using the bacteria Borrelia burgdorferi and Anaplasma phagocytophilum as examples. In simulations, survival of microparasites, their sensitivity to reduced rodent and tick abundance, and to 'dilution' by a reservoir-incompetent host depended on traits that allowed (i) highly efficient transmission from acutely-infected hosts, (ii) long-lived acute or 'carrier' host infections, and/or (iii) transmission amongst co-feeding ticks. Minimum values for transmission efficiency to ticks, and duration of host infectivity, necessary for microparasite persistence, were always higher when nymphal and larval ticks were seasonally asynchronous than when these instars were synchronous. Thus, traits influencing duration of host infectivity, transmission efficiency to ticks and co-feeding transmission are likely to be dominant determinants of fitness in I. scapularis-borne microparasites in northeastern North America due to abiotic forcings influencing I. scapularis seasonality.

We used an Ixodes scapularis population model to investigate potential northward spread of the tick associated with climate change. Annual degree-days >0 degrees C limits for I. scapularis establishment, obtained from tick population model simulations, were mapped using temperatures projected for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s by two Global Climate Models (the Canadian CGCM2 and the UK HadCM3) for two greenhouse gas emission scenario enforcings 'A2'and 'B2' of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Under scenario 'A2' using either climate model, the theoretical range for I. scapularis establishment moved northwards by approximately 200 km by the 2020s and 1000 km by the 2080s. Reductions in emissions (scenario 'B2') had little effect on projected range expansion up to the 2050s, but the range expansion projected to occur between the 2050s and 2080s was less than that under scenario 'A2'. When the tick population model was driven by projected annual temperature cycles (obtained using CGCM2 under scenario 'A2'), tick abundance almost doubled by the 2020s at the current northern limit of I. scapularis, suggesting that the threshold numbers of immigrating ticks needed to establish new populations will fall during the coming decades. The projected degrees of theoretical range expansion and increased tick survival by the 2020s, suggest that actual range expansion of I. scapularis may be detectable within the next two decades. Seasonal tick activity under climate change scenarios was consistent with maintenance of endemic cycles of the Lyme disease agent in newly established tick populations. The geographic range of I. scapularis-borne zoonoses may, therefore, expand significantly northwards as a consequence of climate change this century.

A dynamic population model of Ixodes scapularis, the vector of a number of tick-borne zoonoses in North America, was developed to simulate effects of temperature on tick survival and seasonality. Tick development rates were modelled as temperature-dependent time delays, calculated using mean monthly normal temperature data from specific meteorological stations. Temperature also influenced host-finding success in the model. Using data from stations near endemic populations of I. scapularis, the model reached repeatable, stable, cyclical equilibria with seasonal activity of different instars being very close to that observed in the field. In simulations run using data from meteorological stations in central and eastern Canada, the maximum equilibrium numbers of ticks declined the further north was the station location, and simulated populations died out at more northerly stations. Tick die-out at northern latitudes was due to a steady increase in mortality of all life stages with decreasing temperature rather than a specific threshold event in phenology of one life stage. By linear regression we investigated mean annual numbers of degree-days >0 degrees C (DD>0 degrees C) as a readily mapped index of the temperature conditions at the meteorological stations providing temperature data for the model. Maximum numbers of ticks at equilibrium were strongly associated with the mean DD>0 degrees C (r2>0.96, P<0.001), when the Province of origin of the meteorological station was accounted for (Quebec>Ontario, beta=103, P<0.001). The intercepts of the regression models provided theoretical limits for the establishment of I. scapularis in Canada. Maps of these limits suggested that the range of southeast Canada where temperature conditions are currently suitable for the tick, is much wider than the existing distribution of I. scapularis, implying that there is potential for spread. Future applications of the model in investigating climate change effects on I. scapularis are discussed.

A group of 61 cattle which were naturally infested with lice was followed over two winter periods. Data were collected on the number of lice found at various body sites over this period. Summary statistics were produced and due to the repeated measured and hierarchical structure of the data, multi-level analysis was used to model the population dynamics of Bovicola bovis and assess the influence of the various hierarchical levels. A four level Poisson model was produced-level one, the individual number of lice at each parting; level two, the body site examined (shoulder, midline or rump); level three, the time of the inspection and level four, the animal. Seasonal fluctuation in lice numbers was modelled using a cosine function transformation of time. A seasonal pattern was seen in both years with lice counts higher in the first than the second year. The midline area was the most sensitive to detection of B. bovis. Variance contributed by the individual animal was less than that contributed by the body site examined and the time of the inspection. The model suggested that lice numbers within the shoulder and rump sites were near random following a Poisson distribution, but aggregation of lice occurred at the midline site with the distribution between animals following a Negative Binomial Pattern. The midline site was the most sensitive site for detecting B. bovis. Infestation numbers were higher in the first winter when cattle were younger. In the second winter, there was no difference in lice numbers between cattle exposed to infection for the first or second time.

We report the results of the first serological survey for bluetongue virus in Kazakhstan. We analysed blood samples collected from 958 livestock and 513 wild saiga antelopes over a large area of the country, and found 23.2% seroprevalence in livestock and 0% in saigas. Seroprevalence in livestock did not vary by species, but increased significantly with age. There was no evidence for variation in seroprevalence at the regional level, but there was significant clustering at the farm level. Bluetongue has never before been reported in Kazakhstan, yet our results suggest that it may be endemic. We found seropositive animals at the furthest known northern limits of the bluetongue virus in this region of the world. Recorded vectors are not known to be present in Kazakhstan, so a novel vector is likely to be operating. The lack of evidence for bluetongue virus in saigas is unexpected and suggests a need for further investigation.

A longitudinal prospective intervention study investigated the effect of biotin supplementation on the incidence (new cases per day) of visible lameness in milking cows and heifers on five commercial farms in Gloucestershire, United Kingdom. The trial lasted from June 1997 to April 1999. Each farm participated in the trial for 18 mo. Within each herd the cows were randomly allocated to either receive a supplement of 20 mg of biotin per day or not. All cows were run as one herd on each farm. When a lame cow was identified, the farmer called one of six veterinarians to examine and treat the affected animal; findings were recorded on a standard form. A veterinarian also carried out a bimonthly locomotion assessment to ensure that all lame cows were diagnosed. There were a total of 900 cows, 1120 cow years, in the trial. The overall incidence rate of lameness (per 100 cows per year) was 68.9, with a range of 31.6 to 111.5 per farm. The incidence rates of the four most frequently reported causes of lameness were sole ulcer, 13.8; white line separation, 12.7; digital dermatitis, 12.0; and interdigital necrobacillosis, 7.1 per 100 cows per year. There was a significant difference in the incidence rate of these four lesions between supplemented and unsupplemented cows on two of the five farms, with a significant decrease in lameness in the cows supplemented with biotin. When all the farms were pooled, the risk of lameness caused by white line separation in cattle supplemented with biotin was approximately halved (Cox proportional hazard survival analysis hazard ratio = 0.57).

Consider renovascular hypertension (HT) when: Newly diagnosed hypertension presents with features that are atypical of essential hypertension; Resistant hypertension is associated with risk factors for atheroma; or Angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or angiotensin-II-receptor antagonist therapy is associated with increasing plasma creatinine levels. Atheromatous renovascular HT can often be managed medically, which includes intensive correction of cardiovascular risk factors. ACE inhibitors are probably second-line antihypertensives for patients with unilateral renal artery stenosis and two kidneys. First-line antihypertensives are diuretics, beta-blockers and calcium-channel blockers. Bilateral renal artery stenosis, or a unilateral stenosis in a patient with only one kidney, is an absolute contraindication to ACE inhibition.

Objective: Insulin and glucocorticoids are known to increase total leptin levels. However, the effects of insulin and glucocorticoids on the components of the leptin system - free leptin (FL), bound leptin (BL) and soluble leptin receptor (SR) - have not been elucidated. The aim of this study was to determine if there is a differential effect of insulin and glucocorticoids on the leptin system., Material and Methods: In the first of two studies (study 1), we measured free leptin (FL), bound leptin (BL), a soluble leptin receptor (SR) and insulin, by specific RIA methods, in six healthy subjects on a control day, and subsequently during a hyperinsulinaemic euglycaemic clamp study. In the second study (study 2) we measured the same parameters in six healthy subjects, before (day 1) and during administration of dexamethasone over 3 consecutive days., Results: In study 1, on the control day FL levels rose over the 16 h monitoring period (P = 0.057) and SR levels declined (P < 0.001), but there was no change of BL levels. Even after accounting for diurnal variation, FL levels increased even more substantially over 12 h of insulin infusion than observed on the control day (P < 0.001). In study 2, mean FL concentration doubled from day 1 to day 2 (P = 0.01) and remained elevated subsequently. In contrast to FL, BL and SR levels remained unchanged during the study. Fasting insulin levels (pmol/l) increased from day 1 to day 2, but this rise only approached significance on day 4 (P = 0.05)., Conclusion: We conclude that insulin and dexamethasone increase free leptin levels, but do not change the concentrations of bound leptin and soluble leptin receptor. Furthermore, the dexamethasone-induced rise in leptin levels is (at least partially) independent of the effects of glucocorticoid-induced hyperinsulinaemia.

Objective: To evaluate the impact of a toxicology service on a major metropolitan teaching hospital., Method: A descriptive comparative study of all patients presenting with poisoning or suspected poisoning 12 months before and after the commencement of a toxicology service. Data on length of stay in the emergency department, disposition, length of stay of admitted patients and substance(s) involved were examined., Results: A total of 1,316 poisoned patients were studied. There was a statistically significant increase in self-poisonings from 612 to 704 (P = 0.002) and in the number of admissions from 113 to 192 (P < 0.05). There was no significant change in emergency department length of stay. The average length of stay for patients admitted under the care of the toxicology service decreased, especially for complicated patients., Conclusion: In the first 12 months of operation the toxicology service treated more patients than the 12-month period prior to commencement, achieving a decrease in average length of stay for those patients admitted to the service. The emergency department length of stay was not altered. We surmise that by decreasing average length of stay for the patients under the care of the toxicology service, the net increase in the general pool of unoccupied beds improves bed access for all emergency department patients.

The indirect MAP 1B ELISA based on the recombinant MAP 1B fragment of the immunodominant MAP I protein of Ehrlichia ruminantium is considered to be the most sensitive and specific assay for the serodiagnosis of heartwater. In this study, we evaluated its reliability in detecting exposure to E. ruminantium in field populations of domestic ruminants in Zimbabwe. Cattle and goat herds in endemically stable areas with high infection pressure and an expected close to 100% prevalence of E. ruminantium exposure were sampled. Bovine sera (858) and caprine sera (706) collected at seven locations representative of the two main production systems (communal lands and large scale commercial farms) in the two main agroecological zones of Zimbabwe (highveld and lowveld) were analysed. The prevalence of MAP 1B-specific antibodies in goats was similar and high, ranging from 67 to 100%, at all except one site (43%). Age-specific differences in goats (1, 2, 3, 4, 5 years) were not observed. In contrast, MAP 1B seroprevalence in cattle was significantly lower (P < 0.001), ranging from 46 to 61% in the lowveld communal area and from 24 to 33% in the remaining areas (P < 0.001). Age-specific differences in seroprevalence (1, 2, 3, 4, 5-7 + years) were similarly not evident in cattle (P < 0.15). Hence, the indirect MAP 1B ELISA may be an unreliable indicator of past exposure to heartwater in field-infected cattle in Zimbabwe. Although the reasons for this low response in field cattle are not fully understood, this study illustrates the need for field validation of the performance of new diagnostic tests prior to their use for epidemiological purposes.

We analysed measles antibody data from 1141 vaccinated Canadian children aged 4-16 years to investigate factors associated with seropositivity and magnitude of prevailing antibody titres. We used a mixed Bernoulli/log-gamma model which takes account of the possibility of primary vaccine failures, of censored observations due to the lower detection limit of antibody assays and of a potentially skewed distribution of the logarithm of titres. While controlling for all significant variables, we observed that measles antibody titres decline at a mean rate of 5.6% per annum (approximate 95% CI; 3.3-7.7) equivalent to a half life of 12 years. Further, we noted a detectable linear relationship with respect to age at immunisation such that the mean increase in measles antibody titre of an infant who responds to vaccination gained by delaying vaccination from 12 to 18 months of age is 11.1% (approximate 95% CI; 4.4-18.3).

Background: In our departments, curettage and cautery (C&C) and liquid nitrogen cryotherapy are the preferred methods of treatment for Bowen's disease (BD)., Objectives: We aimed to compare these two treatments with regard to efficacy, time to heal, morbidity and recurrence rate., Methods: Cryotherapy was performed using a liquid nitrogen spray giving two freeze-thaw cycles, each freeze cycle being maintained for 5-10 s after the formation of an ice ball to the intended margin. Curettage was performed with a conventional disposable curette under local anaesthesia, and electrocautery was then used for haemostasis., Results: Eighty lesions in 67 patients (55 female) were analysed. The mean age of the patients was 74 years (range 46-89). The most frequent site was the lower leg, below the knee (n = 59, 74%). The average time taken for complete healing after the procedure was 60 days. The mean size of the lesions was 336 mm(2) (range 30-1890). The patients were followed up for a mean of 22 months (range 6-24, median 2 years). In the cryotherapy group (n = 36 lesions), the median time to complete healing was 46 days (range 14-210; mean 69). Twelve lesions took more than 90 days to heal. Infection requiring antibiotics developed in four patients. Thirteen of the treated lesions had recurred by 24 months. In the C&C group (n = 44 lesions), the median time to healing was 35 days (range 14-330; mean 53). Six of the lesions took more than 90 days to heal. Infection developed in two patients. Recurrence occurred in four lesions over the follow-up period. Considering BD on the lower legs separately, lesions took on average 90 days to heal in the cryotherapy group (n = 23), whereas in the C&C group (n = 36) they took 39 days to heal (P < 0.001). During the procedure and the subsequent 24 h, patients were 10.4 times more likely to report pain of any degree for lesions treated by cryotherapy than by C&C (P < 0.001)., Conclusions: This study suggests a superiority of C&C over cryotherapy in the treatment of BD, especially for lesions on the lower leg. Curettage of lesions of BD is associated with a significantly shorter healing time, less pain, fewer complications and a lower recurrence rate when compared with cryotherapy.

Elevated blood pressure imposes increased mechanical stress on the vascular wall, and mechanical strain is a mitogenic stimulus for vascular smooth muscle (VSM) cells. The role of mechanical forces in regulating the production of noncellular material by VSM cells for VSM cells of human origin remains undefined. We thus investigated the effects of chronic cyclical mechanical strain on extracellular matrix (ECM) protein production by cultured human VSM cells. To simulate a blood pressure of 120/80 mm Hg, human VSM cells were repetitively stretched and relaxed by 10% to 16% of their original length with the Flexercell apparatus. Fibronectin and collagen protein concentrations, matrix metalloproteinase (MMP) activity, and transforming growth factor-beta(1) (TGF-beta(1)) mRNA expression by human VSM cells were measured in response to mechanical strain. Exposing human VSM cells to 5 days of chronic cyclical mechanical strain increased fibronectin (+48%, P:<0.01) and collagen (+50%, P:<0.001) concentrations when compared with cells grown in static conditions. Mechanical strain also increased MMP-2 activity, the predominant matrix-degrading isoform (+11%, P:<0.05) in human VSM cells, thus strain-induced ECM accumulation was not due to inhibition of ECM protein degradation. Strain also increased TGF-beta(1) mRNA expression and the production of a soluble factor that increased ECM protein production. Moreover, a TGF-beta-blocking antibody inhibited the effect of strain-conditioned media on matrix production by human VSM cells. These results suggest that chronic cyclical mechanical strain can directly modulate the fibrogenic activity of human VSM cells by inducing ECM protein synthesis and MMP activity. This occurs, at least in part, through mechanical strain-induced TGF-beta(1) production, a mechanism that could explain the increased vascular ECM deposition in hypertension.

We used a mathematical description of the transmission dynamics of the tick-borne infection Cowdria ruminantium in commercial beef enterprises in Zimbabwe to consider the potential impact of a candidate vaccine to prevent heartwater. The important characteristics of the vaccine were (1) a delay in development of full protection, (2) prevention of clinical disease but not of infection and (3) a waning period of protection in the absence of challenge. We considered three different scenarios in which the vaccine might be used: prophylactically in susceptible cattle prior to the introduction of infection into a herd; in susceptible cattle in the face of an epidemic (i.e., when the infection is introduced and disease is first noticed); and at equilibrium (i.e., when parasite, vector and host have been co-existing for some time). The epidemic rise in infection was modelled assuming two different patterns (i.e., resulting from slow and fast increases in tick challenge). Vaccination (administered both in the face of an epidemic and prophylactically) reduced and delayed the peak of the epidemic. With insufficiently frequent revaccination, this can result in the epidemic occurring during a period of susceptibility, so that the benefit derived from a more-efficacious vaccine is lower than that from a less-efficacious vaccine. A vaccine of only 30% or 50% efficacy (if given to the whole herd) can have important effects on both morbidity and mortality if administered with sufficient frequency. However, a highly efficacious vaccine (e.g., 90%) can have only minimal effect if revaccination occurs too infrequently - especially if the epidemic of disease occurs when tick challenge is high and vaccination-related immunity has waned. There was a fairly consistent pattern of decreasing returns on increasing protection, although this was reversed in the situation of annual vaccination undertaken prophylactically combined with an epidemic of infection that occurred when the tick challenge was relatively low. Vaccination in equilibrium situations was most beneficial at low and intermediate tick challenges. There was very little effect of vaccination in high-transmission areas regardless of vaccine efficacy and/or frequency of revaccination because most animals were infected during periods of innate or maternally derived immunity (i.e., under endemic stability). Our results suggest that where relatively high tick challenge can be achieved and consistently maintained, vaccination may be used in susceptible herds to minimise losses in a policy of transition to endemic stability.

Adult Amblyomma hebraeum ticks, the principle vector of heartwater (cowdriosis) of domestic ruminants in southern Africa, were collected in pheromone traps placed in Kruger National Park, an exclusively wildlife sanctuary in South Africa. These ticks transmitted Cowdria ruminantium, the rickettsial agent causing heartwater, to a susceptible goat, resulting in acute, fatal disease. C ruminantium was isolated in bovine endothelial cell culture from the plasma of this animal during the febrile stage of the disease and transmitted to susceptible goats, causing fatal heartwater. The prevalence of C ruminantium infection in 292 ticks was determined by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analysis to be 1.7 per cent (95 per cent confidence interval 0.71 to 4.0 per cent). A DNA probe analysis, which is less sensitive than PCR, detected infection in three of the five PCR-positive ticks. The remaining infections were below the detection limit of the DNA probe, which is approximately 70,000 organisms. This is the first evidence that a vector-wildlife cycle of transmission of C ruminantium can be maintained independently of domestic ruminants.

Heartwater, caused by the rickettsial organism Cowdria ruminantium, is a serious constraint to livestock development in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Traditionally, the disease has been controlled by the use of chemical acaricides to control the vector tick. The University of Florida/USAID-supported heartwater research project (based in Zimbabwe) is developing a new inactivated vaccine to control the disease. In order that the vaccine is used effectively, the project has been studying the epidemiology of the disease in different livestock production systems of Zimbabwe, and evaluating the economic impact of the disease and of its future control using a vaccine such as the one under development. Initially, field studies were conducted to characterise the communal and commercial livestock-productions systems at risk from heartwater and to understand the epidemiology of the disease. The data from these studies were then applied to an infection-dynamics model of heartwater, which was used to provide estimates of disease incidence and impact under various scenarios over a period of 10 yr. Two principal outputs of the epidemiological model (cumulative annual heartwater incidence and infection-fatality proportion) were key inputs into an economics model. The estimated total annual national losses amount to Z$ 61.3 million (US$ 5.6 million) in discounted value terms over 10 yr. Annual economic losses per animal in the commercial production system (Z$ 56 discounted values) are 25 times greater than the losses in the communal system (Z$ 2.2). The greatest component of economic loss is acaricide cost (76%), followed by milk loss (18%) and treatment cost (5%). Losses in outputs other than milk (beef, traction and manure) appear to be minimal. A new vaccine has the promise of a benefit: cost ratio of about 2.4:1 in the communal and 7.6:1 in the commercial system. A control strategy based on a new vaccine would yield additional non-financial benefits to farmers and the government resulting from reductions in the use of chemical acaricides.

The tick vectors of heartwater (Cowdria ruminantium infection) in Zimbabwe, Amblyomma hebraeum and Amblyomma variegatum, historically were believed to be confined to the low-lying regions of the south and north-west of the country. However, country-wide surveys performed in 1975-1980 and 1988-1991 demonstrated that both species were also established in western parts of the highveld plateau and had started to encroach on the predominantly heartwater-free central and eastern highveld regions. To determine the current distributions of both the vectors and evaluate the potential threat of heartwater to animals in the highveld, a survey of ticks infesting cattle was performed in 1996 at 2994 locations in small-holder and large-scale commercial farming areas throughout Zimbabwe. Amblyomma hebraeum was collected at 1329 locations, A. variegatum at 72 locations and both A. hebraeum and A. variegatum at 13 locations. The results demonstrated that A. hebraeum was present, as previously recorded, throughout the southern half of the country and appeared to have undergone further limited spread into the central and eastern highveld regions. Only the northern-most region of the country appeared to be free of this species. Amblyomma variegatum was collected mainly in the north-west, as previously recorded, but was also found at isolated locations across the central highveld region and along the eastern border with Mozambique. This species was, however, still absent from the southern half and the northern-most regions of the country. An overlap of the distributions of the two species existed within a zone along the southern and eastern regions of the distribution of A. variegatum. These results suggest that the vectors of heartwater are spreading and threaten to introduce heartwater into intensive livestock-producing regions of the country.

The mean blood pressure (BP) can be accurately estimated from indirect measurements of brachial artery pressure, i.e. mean BP = diastolic BP + 1/3 pulse pressure. Although this equation has been used as a surrogate of mean systemic pressure, it is unknown whether this approximation can be validly applied to distal vascular beds. Therefore we determined the accuracy of this method as an estimate of the mean pressure in distal arteries by measuring finger BP with the Finapres device in 16 normotensive and 12 hypertensive subjects. The "calculated" and measured values of mean BP were compared when subjects were resting and during manoeuvres which aimed to alter the shape of the pulse waveform. Although closely correlated with the measured value, the "calculated" resting mean BP was systematically greater (+2.7+/-0.7 mm Hg, p<0.001). Additionally, the rise in the mean pressure produced by infusion of phenylephrine, an alpha1-adrenoceptor stimulant (16.0+/-1.5 mm Hg) was underestimated by the calculation (13.1+/-1.5 mm Hg, p<0.05). Of even greater concern was that calculating the mean pressure during infusion of isoprenaline (a beta-adrenergic stimulant) suggested the mean pressure had increased by 5.8+/-1.6 mm Hg when it had actually fallen (-2.1+/-2.4 mm Hg, p<0.001 vs. the measured value). Thus, calculating the mean BP from Finapres measurements roughly approximates the measured value when subjects are at rest. However, this estimation becomes inaccurate when pulse wave dimensions are altered, and is probably unsuitable for assessing the acute effects of vasoactive drugs, in particular vasodilators, on BP.

Heartwater, the tick-borne disease caused by the rickettsia Cowdria ruminantium has historically been confined to the southern and western lowvelds of Zimbabwe. Since 1986, however, cases of heartwater have been diagnosed with increasing frequency in the central and eastern regions of the previously heartwater-free highveld plateau. During the same period, collections of the two major tick vectors of heartwater in Zimbabwe, Amblyomma hebraeum and Amblyomma variegatum, were made for the first time in these areas, suggesting that spread of these ticks was responsible for the changed distribution of the disease. The factors associated with this spread have not been determined, but increased cattle and wildlife movement and reduced intensity of dipping undoubtedly play important roles. Currently, the distribution of heartwater and its vectors in the highveld is still largely restricted to the central and eastern regions. The northern regions of the highveld appear to be predominantly uninfected, though it is likely that, eventually, heartwater will spread further with considerable impact on livestock production in Zimbabwe.

1. Although epidemiological data links essential hypertension with insulin resistance, 'physiological' insulin concentrations have not had pressor effects in humans. Our previous studies suggested that hyperinsulinaemia might have effects on distal blood pressure which are not detected more proximally. Therefore, we used non-invasive techniques to determine the acute effects of insulin on proximal and distal blood pressure. 2. Blood pressure was measured in the finger (Finapres) and arm (Dinamap monitor) during a two-stage euglycaemic clamp. Values obtained during the insulin infusion were compared with a control infusion. 3. Plasma insulin concentrations were 7.0 +/- 1.0 mu-units/ml at baseline and remained within the accepted post-prandial 'physiological' range during low- and high-dose insulin infusions (28.9 +/- 2.1 and 101.7 +/- 6.8 mu-units/ml respectively). From a baseline value of 130 +/- 3 mmHg, finger systolic blood pressure rose by 9.9 +/- 1.9 mmHg during the low-dose infusion (compared with 7.5 +/- 2.7 mmHg in control, P < 0.05) and by 21.9 +/- 2.3 mmHg during the high-dose infusion (compared with 14.6 +/- 3.1 mmHg in control, P < 0.01). Compared with control, insulin did not have an additional effect on arm pressures. 4. Although finger systolic pressure was increased by hyperinsulinaemia, this occurred in the absence of a change in mean blood pressure or in arm pressures. These data therefore suggest that insulin augmented pulse wave reflection. This novel haemodynamic effect of insulin could contribute to the association of insulin resistance with essential hypertension.

Epidemiological evidence has linked essential hypertension with impaired tissue sensitivity to insulin (i.e. insulin resistance) and actions which could contribute to elevated blood pressure include renal sodium and water retention, sympathetic nervous system stimulation and effects on vascular smooth muscle cell growth and cation balance. Although insulin has pressor effects in some animal models, similar changes in human studies have only been demonstrable with supraphysiological insulin concentrations. We have recently measured finger blood pressure during a two stage hyperinsulinaemic euglycaemic clamp that produced insulin concentrations within the 'physiological' range. The plasma insulin concentration increased from 7.0 +/- 0.3 mu U.ml(-1) to 28.9 +/- 0.6 mu U.ml(-)and then to 101 +/-1.7 mu U.ml(-1) during the procedure and was associated with an increase in fingers but not arm systolic blood pressure during both low dose (i.e.+ 9.9 +/- 1.9 mmHg vs + 7.5 +/- 2.7 mmHg with control,p <0.05) and high dose insulin (21.9 +/- 2.3 mmHg vs 14.6 +/- 3.1 mmHg, p <0.01). Thus it appears that 'physiological' concentrations of insulin have pressor effects on finger systolic blood pressure that are not detectable more proximally and it is possible that such changes could contribute to the development of sustained elevations of blood pressure.

Dopamine-beta-hydroxylase (D beta H) is the enzyme responsible for intraneural conversion of dopamine to norepinephrine. Its deficiency results in failure of norepinephrine synthesis, excessive dopamine release and orthostatic hypotension. We studied a young patient with this deficiency using the currently available methods to assess sympathetic function namely measurement of norepinephrine kinetics, microneurography to assess muscle sympathetic nerve activity (MSNA), and heart-rate spectral analysis. We compared these findings with those in 24 young healthy controls, and 4 patients with peripheral autonomic failure (PAF). Recordings were made in our subject before and after 5 months of treatment with L-threo-3,4-dihydroxyphenylserine (DOPS) (which is converted directly into L-norepinephrine bypassing the D beta H enzymatic step); measurements were made at rest in the supine position and after 15 min of 30 degrees head-up tilt. Our subject with D beta H deficiency had a high resting nerve firing rate (40.3 bursts/min) compared with the mean value in normal controls (19.3 bursts/min), and an appropriate increase in nerve firing rate during tilt. Total body norepinephrine spillover at rest was very low, 38 ng/min, compared with age-matched normals (519 +/- 43.3 ng/min, mean +/- SEM), and epinephrine secretion was undetectable. Conversely, the plasma concentrations of dopamine, DOPAC, HVA and DOPA were raised. At rest, low-frequency heart-rate variability (0.1 Hz) was absent with preservation of the respiratory-related high-frequency peak. In contrast, the PAF subjects had no detectable muscle sympathetic nerve activity, very low levels of norepinephrine spillover and epinephrine secretion and a reduction in heart rate variability at all frequencies. After 5 months treatment with L-threo-3,4-dihydroxyphenylserine (DOPS) in the D beta H deficiency patient there was a dramatic clinical improvement with resolution of the orthostatic symptoms, dramatic reduction in MSNA activity at rest, and return of plasma norepinephrine, norepinephrine spillover, DHPG and MHPG to within the normal range, indicating intraneuronal production of norepinephrine.