51. Two-stage optimal designs based on exact variance for a single-arm trial with survival endpoints
- Author
-
Guogen Shan
- Subjects
Statistics and Probability ,Optimal design ,Time Factors ,01 natural sciences ,Article ,Statistical power ,Normal distribution ,010104 statistics & probability ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Statistics ,Humans ,Computer Simulation ,Pharmacology (medical) ,030212 general & internal medicine ,0101 mathematics ,Statistical hypothesis testing ,Mathematics ,Pharmacology ,Clinical Trials as Topic ,Models, Statistical ,Liver Cirrhosis, Biliary ,Penicillamine ,Numerical Analysis, Computer-Assisted ,Variance (accounting) ,Survival Analysis ,Nominal level ,Treatment Outcome ,Research Design ,Sample size determination ,Data Interpretation, Statistical ,Sample Size ,Type I and type II errors - Abstract
Sample size calculation based on normal approximations is often associated with the loss of statistical power for a single-arm trial with a time-to-event endpoint. Recently, Wu (2015) derived the exact variance for the one-sample log-rank test under the alternative and showed that a single-arm one-stage study based on exact variance often has power above the nominal level while the type I error rate is controlled. We extend this approach to a single-arm two-stage design by using exact variances of the one-sample log-rank test for the first stage and the two stages combined. The empirical power of the proposed two-stage optimal designs is often not guaranteed under a two-stage design setting, which could be due to the asymptotic bi-variate normal distribution used to estimate the joint distribution of the test statistics. We adjust the nominal power level in the design search to guarantee the simulated power of the identified optimal design being above the nominal level. The sample size and the study time savings of the proposed two-stage designs are substantial as compared to the one-stage design.
- Published
- 2020