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Many marine species are shifting their distributions in response to changing ocean conditions, posing significant challenges and risks for fisheries management. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to project future species distributions in the face of a changing climate. Information to fit SDMs generally comes from two main sources: fishery‐independent (scientific surveys) and fishery‐dependent (commercial catch) data. A concern with fishery‐dependent data is that fishing locations are not independent of the underlying species abundance, potentially biasing predictions of species distributions. However, resources for fishery‐independent surveys are increasingly limited; therefore, it is critical we understand the strengths and limitations of SDMs developed from fishery‐dependent data. We used a simulation approach to evaluate the potential for fishery‐dependent data to inform SDMs and abundance estimates and quantify the bias resulting from different fishery‐dependent sampling scenarios in the California Current System (CCS). We then evaluated the ability of the SDMs to project changes in the spatial distribution of species over time and compare the time scale over which model performance degrades between the different sampling scenarios and as a function of climate bias and novelty. Our results show that data generated from fishery‐dependent sampling can still result in SDMs with high predictive skill several decades into the future, given specific forms of preferential sampling which result in low climate bias and novelty. Therefore, fishery‐dependent data may be able to supplement information from surveys that are reduced or eliminated for budgetary reasons to project species distributions into the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract--Measurements of [sup.18]O/[sup.16]O and [sup.13]C/[sup.12]C ratios in the carbonate of juvenile gray snapper (Lutjanus griseus) sagittal otoliths collected during 2001-2005 from different southern Florida regions indicated significant variations in the [...]

We investigate the impact of oceanographic variability on Pacific bluefin tuna (Thunnus orientalis: PBF) distributions in the California Current system using remotely sensed environmental data, and fishery‐dependent data from multiple fisheries in a habitat‐modeling framework. We examined the effects of local oceanic conditions (sea surface temperature, surface chlorophyll, sea surface height, eddy kinetic energy), as well as large‐scale oceanographic phenomena, such as El Niño, on PBF availability to commercial and recreational fishing fleets. Results from generalized additive models showed that warmer temperatures of around 17–21°C with low surface chlorophyll concentrations (<0.5 mg/m3) increased probability of occurrence of PBF in the Commercial Passenger Fishing Vessel and purse seine fisheries. These associations were particularly evident during a recent marine heatwave (the "Blob"). In contrast, PBF were most likely to be encountered on drift gillnet gear in somewhat cooler waters (13–18°C), with moderate chlorophyll concentrations (0.5–1.0 mg/m3). This discrepancy was likely a result of differing spatiotemporal distribution of fishing effort among fleets, as well as the different vertical depths fished by each gear, demonstrating the importance of understanding selectivity when building correlative habitat models. In the future, monitoring and understanding environmentally driven changes in the availability of PBF to commercial and recreational fisheries can contribute to the implementation of ecosystem approaches to fishery management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Compared with high-latitude seas, the ecological implications of climate change for top consumers in subtropical regions are poorly understood. One critical area of knowledge deficiency is the nature of food-web connections to larvae during their vulnerable time in the plankton. Bluefin tuna (BFT) are highly migratory temperate species whose early life stages are spent in ultra-oligotrophic subtropical waters. Dietary studies of BFT larvae provide evidence of prey-limited growth coupled with strong selection for specific prey types—cladocerans and poecilostomatoid copepods—whose paradoxical or poorly resolved trophic characteristics do not fit the conventional understanding of open-ocean food-web structure and flows. Current knowledge consequently leaves many uncertainties in climate change effects, including the possibility that increased nitrogen fixation by Trichodesmium spp. might enhance resiliency of BFT larvae, despite a projected overall decline in system productivity. To advance understanding and future predictions, the complementary perspectives of oceanographers and fisheries researchers need to come together in studies that focus on the trophic pathways most relevant to fish larvae, the factors that drive variability in spawning regions, and their effects on larval feeding, growth, and survival. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future sustainable management of fisheries will require resilience to the effects of environmental variability and climate change on stock productivity. In this study, we examined relationships between sea surface temperature (SST) in the region between Taiwan and the Sea of Japan, and annual recruitment of Pacific bluefin tuna (Thunnus orientalis : PBF) over the past 35 years. Spatial correlation maps showed that warmer SSTs south of Shikoku, in the East China Sea and in the Sea of Japan from summer to late fall were associated with above average recruitment. SST anomalies near larval and juvenile habitats were most strongly correlated with local air temperatures. Generalized Additive Models predicting annual PBF recruitment from SST fields suggested that the influence of SST on recruitment was stronger than that of spawning stock biomass. Correlations between SST and recruitment likely reflect biological processes relevant to early juvenile habitat suitability. The influence of late fall SSTs could also be a result of varying availability of age-0 fish to the troll fishery; however, the relative importance of these processes was not clear. Despite these knowledge gaps, the strong predictive power of SST on PBF recruitment can allow more proactive management of this species under varying environmental conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is likely to drive complex shifts in the distribution and ecology of marine species. Projections of future changes may vary, however, depending on the biological impact model used. In this study, we compared a correlative species distribution model and a simple mechanistic oxygen balance model for Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus: ABFT) in the North Atlantic Ocean. Both models gave similar results for the recent historical time period, and suggested that ABFT generally occupy favourable metabolic habitats. Projections from an earth system model showed largely temperature-induced reductions in ABFT habitat in the tropical and sub-tropical Atlantic by 2100. However, the oxygen balance model showed more optimistic results in parts of the subpolar North Atlantic. This was partially due to an inherent ability to extrapolate beyond conditions currently encountered by pelagic longline fishing fleets. Projections included considerable uncertainty due to the simplicity of the biological models, and the coarse spatiotemporal resolution of the analyses. Despite these limitations, our results suggest that climate change is likely to increase metabolic stress on ABFT in sub-tropical habitats, but may improve habitat suitability in subpolar habitats, with implications for spawning and migratory behaviours, and availability to fishing fleets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A close relationship between adult abundance and stock productivity may not exist for many marine fish stocks, resulting in concern that the management goal of maximum sustainable yield is either inefficient or risky. Although reproductive success is tightly coupled with adult abundance and fecundity in many terrestrial animals, in exploited marine fish where and when fish spawn and consequent dispersal dynamics may have a greater impact. Here, we propose an eco-evolutionary perspective, reproductive resilience, to understand connectivity and productivity in marine fish. Reproductive resilience is the capacity of a population to maintain the reproductive success needed to result in long-term population stability despite disturbances. A stock's reproductive resilience is driven by the underlying traits in its spawner-recruit system, selected for over evolutionary timescales, and the ecological context within which it is operating. Spawner-recruit systems are species specific, have both density-dependent and fitness feedback loops and are made up of fixed, behavioural and ecologically variable traits. They operate over multiple temporal, spatial and biological scales, with trait diversity affecting reproductive resilience at both the population and individual (i.e. portfolio) scales. Models of spawner-recruit systems fall within three categories: (i) two-dimensional models (i.e. spawner and recruit); (ii) process-based biophysical dispersal models which integrate physical and environmental processes into understanding recruitment; and (iii) complex spatially explicit integrated life cycle models. We review these models and their underlying assumptions about reproductive success vs. our emerging mechanistic understanding. We conclude with practical guidelines for integrating reproductive resilience into assessments of population connectivity and stock productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study uses stable isotopes of nitrogen and carbon (δ15Nandδ13C) as trophic indicators for Atlantic bluefin tuna larvae (BFT) (6-10 mm standard length) in the highly contrasting environmental conditions of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and the Balearic Sea (MED). These regions are differentiated by their temperature regime and relative productivity, with the GOM being significantly warmer and more productive. MED BFT larvae showed the highest δ15N signatures, implying an elevated trophic position above the underlying microzooplankton baseline. Ontogenetic dietary shifts were observed in the BFT larvae from the GOM and MED which indicates early life trophodynamics differences between these spawning habitats. Significant trophic differences between the GOM and MED larvae were observed in relation to δ15N signatures in favour of the MED larvae, which may have important implications in their growth during their early life stages.These low δ15N levels in the zooplankton from the GOM may be an indication of a shifting isotopic baseline in pelagic food webs due to diatrophic inputs by cyanobacteria. Lack of enrichment for δ15N in BFT larvae compared to zooplankton implies an alternative grazing pathway from the traditional food chain of phytoplankton-zooplankton-larval fish. Results provide insight for a comparative characterization of the trophic pathways variability of the two main spawning grounds for BFT larvae.