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This study measures inequality and inequity in the distribution of clinical trials on cancer drug development between 1996 and 2016, comparing the number of clinical trials with cancer need, proxied by prevalence, incidence, or survival rates for both rare and non-rare cancers. We leverage a unique global database of clinical trials activity and costs between 1996 and 2016, constructed for 227 different cancer types to measure for rare and non-rare cancers: i) inequalities and inequity of clinical trial activity, considering all trials as well as split by R&D stage; ii) inequalities and inequity in R&D investment proxied by trial enrollment and duration; iii) evolution of inequity over time. Inequalities are measured with concentration curves and indices and inequities measured with the health inequity index. We find four important results. First, we show pro-low need inequity across cancer types for both rare and non-rare cancers, for all need proxies. Second, we show inequity differs across R&D stages and between rare and non-rare cancers. The distribution of clinical trials for non-rare cancers disproportionately favors low-need non-rare cancers from earlier to later stages of R&D, whilst for rare cancers this only occurs in Phase 2 trials. Third, inequity analyses in R&D investment show that only trial enrollment for rare cancers and trial duration for non-rare cancers are disproportionately concentrated among low-need cancers. Finally, while pro-low need inequity has persisted between 1996 and 2016 for non-rare cancers, it has faded for rare cancers post-EU orphan drugs' legislation., (Copyright © 2022. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Background: The global epidemic of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) renders its prevention a major public health priority. A key risk factor of diabetes is obesity and poor diets. Food environments have been found to influence people's diets and obesity, positing they may play a role in the prevalence of diabetes. Yet, there is scant evidence on the role they may play in the context of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We examined the associations of food environments on T2DM among adults and its heterogeneity by income and sex., Methods and Findings: We linked individual health outcome data of 12,167 individuals from a network of health surveillance sites (the South Asia Biobank) to the density and proximity of food outlets geolocated around their homes from environment mapping survey data collected between 2018 and 2020 in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Density was defined as share of food outlets within 300 m from study participant's home, and proximity was defined as having at least 1 outlet within 100 m from home. The outcome variables include fasting blood glucose level, high blood glucose, and self-reported diagnosed diabetes. Control variables included demographics, socioeconomic status (SES), health status, healthcare utilization, and physical activities. Data were analyzed in ArcMap 10.3 and STATA 15.1. A higher share of fast-food restaurants (FFR) was associated with a 9.21 mg/dl blood glucose increase (95% CI: 0.17, 18.24; p < 0.05). Having at least 1 FFR in the proximity was associated with 2.14 mg/dl blood glucose increase (CI: 0.55, 3.72; p < 0.01). A 1% increase in the share of FFR near an individual's home was associated with 8% increase in the probability of being clinically diagnosed as a diabetic (average marginal effects (AMEs): 0.08; CI: 0.02, 0.14; p < 0.05). Having at least 1 FFR near home was associated with 16% (odds ratio [OR]: 1.16; CI: 1.01, 1.33; p < 0.05) and 19% (OR: 1.19; CI: 1.03, 1.38; p < 0.05) increases in the odds of higher blood glucose levels and diagnosed diabetes, respectively. The positive association between FFR density and blood glucose level was stronger among women than men, but the association between FFR proximity and blood glucose level was stronger among men as well as among those with higher incomes. One of the study's key limitations is that we measured exposure to food environments around residency geolocation; however, participants may source their meals elsewhere., Conclusions: Our results suggest that the exposure to fast-food outlets may have a detrimental impact on the risk of T2DM, especially among females and higher-income earners. Policies should target changes in the food environments to promote better diets and prevent T2DM., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

To study the trade-off between economic, social and health outcomes in the management of a pandemic, DAEDALUS integrates a dynamic epidemiological model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission with a multi-sector economic model, reflecting sectoral heterogeneity in transmission and complex supply chains. The model identifies mitigation strategies that optimize economic production while constraining infections so that hospital capacity is not exceeded but allowing essential services, including much of the education sector, to remain active. The model differentiates closures by economic sector, keeping those sectors open that contribute little to transmission but much to economic output and those that produce essential services as intermediate or final consumption products. In an illustrative application to 63 sectors in the United Kingdom, the model achieves an economic gain of between £161 billion (24%) and £193 billion (29%) compared to a blanket lockdown of non-essential activities over six months. Although it has been designed for SARS-CoV-2, DAEDALUS is sufficiently flexible to be applicable to pandemics with different epidemiological characteristics., (© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature America, Inc.)

'Nudge'-based social norms messages conveying high population influenza vaccination coverage levels can encourage vaccination due to bandwagoning effects but also discourage vaccination due to free-riding effects on low risk of infection, making their impact on vaccination uptake ambiguous. We develop a theoretical framework to capture heterogeneity around vaccination behaviors, and empirically measure the causal effects of different messages about vaccination coverage rates on four self-reported and behavioral vaccination intention measures. In an online experiment, N = 1365 UK adults are randomly assigned to one of seven treatment groups with different messages about their social environment's coverage rate (varied between 10% and 95%), or a control group with no message. We find that treated groups have significantly greater vaccination intention than the control. Treatment effects increase with the coverage rate up to a 75% level, consistent with a bandwagoning effect. For coverage rates above 75%, the treatment effects, albeit still positive, stop increasing and remain flat (or even decline). Our results suggest that, at higher coverage rates, free-riding behavior may partially crowd out bandwagoning effects of coverage rate messages. We also find significant heterogeneity of these effects depending on the individual perceptions of risks of infection and of the coverage rates., (© 2022 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: The food environment has been found to impact population dietary behaviour. Our study aimed to systematically review the impact of different elements of the food environment on dietary intake and obesity., Methods: We searched MEDLINE, Embase, PsychInfo, EconLit databases to identify literature that assessed the relationship between the built food environments (intervention) and dietary intake and obesity (outcomes), published between database inception to March 26, 2020. All human studies were eligible except for those on clinical sub-groups. Only studies with causal inference methods were assessed. Studies focusing on the food environment inside homes, workplaces and schools were excluded. A risk of bias assessment was conducted using the CASP appraisal checklist. Findings were summarized using a narrative synthesis approach., Findings: 58 papers were included, 55 of which were conducted in high-income countries. 70% of papers focused on the consumer food environments and found that in-kind/financial incentives, healthy food saliency, and health primes, but not calorie menu labelling significantly improved dietary quality of children and adults, while BMI results were null. 30% of the papers focused on the neighbourhood food environments and found that the number of and distance to unhealthy food outlets increased the likelihood of fast-food consumption and higher BMI for children of any SES; among adults only selected groups were impacted - females, black, and Hispanics living in low and medium density areas. The availability and distance to healthy food outlets significantly improved children's dietary intake and BMI but null results were found for adults., Interpretation: Evidence suggests certain elements of the consumer and neighbourhood food environments could improve populations dietary intake, while effect on BMI was observed among children and selected adult populations. Underprivileged groups are most likely to experience and impact on BMI. Future research should investigate whether findings translate in other countries., (Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Introduction: In low-middle income countries (LMICs) the role of food environments on obesity has been understudied. We address this gap by 1) examining the effect of food environments on adults' body size (BMI, waist circumference) and obesity; 2) measuring the heterogeneity of such effects by income and sex., Methods: This cross-sectional study analysed South Asia Biobank surveillance and environment mapping data for 12,167 adults collected between 2018 and 2020 from 33 surveillance sites in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Individual-level data (demographic, socio-economic, and health characteristics) were combined with exposure to healthy and unhealthy food environments measured with geolocations of food outlets (obtained through ground-truth surveys) within 300 m buffer zones around participants' homes. Multivariate regression models were used to assess association of exposure to healthy and unhealthy food environments on waist circumference, BMI, and probability of obesity for the total sample and stratified by sex and income., Findings: The presence of a higher share of supermarkets in the neighbourhood was associated with a reduction in body size (BMI, β = - 3∙23; p < 0∙0001, and waist circumference, β = -5∙99; p = 0∙0212) and obesity (Average Marginal Effect (AME): -0∙18; p = 0∙0009). High share of fast-food restaurants in the neighbourhood was not significantly associated with body size, but it significantly increased the probability of obesity measured by BMI (AME: 0∙09; p = 0∙0234) and waist circumference (AME: 0∙21; p = 0∙0021). These effects were stronger among females and low-income individuals., Interpretation: The results suggest the availability of fast - food outlets influences obesity, especially among female and lower-income groups. The availability of supermarkets is associated with reduced body size and obesity, but their effects do not outweigh the role of fast-food outlets. Policies should target food environments to promote better diets and reduce obesity., Competing Interests: No competing interest to declare., (© 2022 Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Background: In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, governments across the globe have imposed strict social distancing measures. Public compliance to such measures is essential for their success, yet the economic consequences of compliance are unknown. This is the first study to analyze the effects of good compliance compared with poor compliance to a COVID-19 suppression strategy (i.e. lockdown) on work productivity., Methods: We estimate the differences in work productivity comparing a scenario of good compliance with one of poor compliance to the UK government COVID-19 suppression strategy. We use projections of the impact of the UK suppression strategy on mortality and morbidity from an individual-based epidemiological model combined with an economic model representative of the labour force in Wales and England., Results: We find that productivity effects of good compliance significantly exceed those of poor compliance and increase with the duration of the lockdown. After 3 months of the lockdown, work productivity in good compliance is £398.58 million higher compared with that of poor compliance; 75% of the differences is explained by productivity effects due to morbidity and non-health reasons and 25% attributed to avoided losses due to pre-mature mortality., Conclusion: Good compliance to social distancing measures exceeds positive economic effects, in addition to health benefits. This is an important finding for current economic and health policy. It highlights the importance to set clear guidelines for the public, to build trust and support for the rules and if necessary, to enforce good compliance to social distancing measures., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association.)

Objectives: Arts engagement has been positively linked with mental health and well-being; however, socio-economic inequalities may be prevalent in access to and uptake of arts engagement reflecting on inequalities in mental health. This study estimated socio-economic inequality and horizontal inequity (unfair inequality) in arts engagement and depression symptoms of older adults in England. Trends in inequality and inequity were measured over a period of ten years., Study Design: This is a repeated cross-sectional study., Methods: In this analysis, we used data from six waves (waves 2 to 7) of the nationally representative English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. We estimated socio-economic inequality using concentration curves that plot the distribution of arts engagement and depression symptoms against the distribution of wealth. A concentration index was used to measure the magnitude of the inequality. Unfair inequality was then calculated for need-standardised arts engagement using a horizontal inequity index (HII)., Results: The study sample included adults aged 50 years and older from waves 2 (2004/2005, n = 6620) to 7 (2014/2015, n = 3329). Engagement with cinema, galleries and theatre was pro-rich unequal, i.e. concentrated among the wealthier, but inequality in depression was pro-poor unequal, i.e. concentrated more among the less wealthy. While pro-rich inequality in arts engagement decreased from wave 2 (conc. index: 0·291, 95% confidence interval 0·27 to 0·31) to wave 7 (conc. index: 0·275, 95% confidence interval 0·24 to 0·30), pro-poor inequality in depression increased from wave 2 (conc. index: -0·164, 95% confidence interval -0·18 to -0·14) to wave 7 (conc. index: -0·189, 95% confidence interval -0·21 to -0·16). Depression-standardised arts engagement showed horizontal inequity that increased from wave 2 (HII: 0·455, 95% confidence interval 0·42 to 0·48) to wave 7 (HII: 0·464, 95% confidence interval 0·42 to 0·50)., Conclusions: Our findings suggest that while socio-economic inequality in arts engagement might appear to have reduced over time, once arts engagement is standardised for need, inequality has actually worsened over time and can be interpreted as inequitable (unfair). Relying on need-unstandardised estimates of inequality might thus provide a false sense of achievement to policy makers and lead to improper social prescribing interventions being emplaced., (Copyright © 2021 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Objective: To compare antibiotic sales in eight high-income countries using the 2019 World Health Organization (WHO) Access, Watch and Reserve (AWaRe) classification and the target of 60% consumption of Access category antibiotics., Methods: We analysed data from a commercial database of sales of systemic antibiotics in France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Switzerland, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and United States of America over the years 2013-2018. We classified antibiotics according to the 2019 AWaRe categories: Access, Watch, Reserve and Not Recommended. We measured antibiotic sales per capita in standard units (SU) per capita and calculated Access group sales as a percentage of total antibiotic sales., Findings: In 2018, per capita antibiotic sales ranged from 7.4 SU (Switzerland) to 20.0 SU (France); median sales of Access group antibiotics were 10.9 SU per capita (range: 3.5-15.0). Per capita sales declined moderately over 2013-2018. The median percentage of Access group antibiotics was 68% (range: 22-77 %); the Access group proportion increased in most countries between 2013 and 2018. Five countries exceeded the 60% target; two countries narrowly missed it (> 55% in Germany and Italy). Sales of Access antibiotics in Japan were low (22%), driven by relatively high sales of oral cephalosporins and macrolides., Conclusion: We have identified changes to prescribing that could allow countries to achieve the WHO target. The 60% Access group target provides a framework to inform national antibiotic policies and could be complemented by absolute measures and more ambitious values in specific settings., ((c) 2021 The authors; licensee World Health Organization.)

In response to unprecedented surges in the demand for hospital care during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, health systems have prioritized patients with COVID-19 to life-saving hospital care to the detriment of other patients. In contrast to these ad hoc policies, we develop a linear programming framework to optimally schedule elective procedures and allocate hospital beds among all planned and emergency patients to minimize years of life lost. Leveraging a large dataset of administrative patient medical records, we apply our framework to the National Health Service in England and show that an extra 50,750-5,891,608 years of life can be gained compared with prioritization policies that reflect those implemented during the pandemic. Notable health gains are observed for neoplasms, diseases of the digestive system, and injuries and poisoning. Our open-source framework provides a computationally efficient approximation of a large-scale discrete optimization problem that can be applied globally to support national-level care prioritization policies., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Background: Planning for extreme surges in demand for hospital care of patients requiring urgent life-saving treatment for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), while retaining capacity for other emergency conditions, is one of the most challenging tasks faced by health care providers and policymakers during the pandemic. Health systems must be well-prepared to cope with large and sudden changes in demand by implementing interventions to ensure adequate access to care. We developed the first planning tool for the COVID-19 pandemic to account for how hospital provision interventions (such as cancelling elective surgery, setting up field hospitals, or hiring retired staff) will affect the capacity of hospitals to provide life-saving care., Methods: We conducted a review of interventions implemented or considered in 12 European countries in March to April 2020, an evaluation of their impact on capacity, and a review of key parameters in the care of COVID-19 patients. This information was used to develop a planner capable of estimating the impact of specific interventions on doctors, nurses, beds, and respiratory support equipment. We applied this to a scenario-based case study of 1 intervention, the set-up of field hospitals in England, under varying levels of COVID-19 patients., Results: The Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics pandemic planner is a hospital planning tool that allows hospital administrators, policymakers, and other decision-makers to calculate the amount of capacity in terms of beds, staff, and crucial medical equipment obtained by implementing the interventions. Flexible assumptions on baseline capacity, the number of hospitalizations, staff-to-beds ratios, and staff absences due to COVID-19 make the planner adaptable to multiple settings. The results of the case study show that while field hospitals alleviate the burden on the number of beds available, this intervention is futile unless the deficit of critical care nurses is addressed first., Discussion: The tool supports decision-makers in delivering a fast and effective response to the pandemic. The unique contribution of the planner is that it allows users to compare the impact of interventions that change some or all inputs., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc.)

Objective: The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrates the need for understanding pathways to healthcare demand, morbidity, and mortality of pandemic patients. We estimate H1N1 (1) hospitalization rates, (2) severity rates (length of stay, ventilation, pneumonia, and death) of those hospitalized, (3) mortality rates, and (4) time lags between infections and hospitalizations during the pandemic (June 2009 to March 2010) and post-pandemic influenza season (November 2010 to February 2011) in England., Methods: Estimates of H1N1 infections from a dynamic transmission model are combined with hospitalizations and severity using time series econometric analyses of administrative patient-level hospital data., Results: Hospitalization rates were 34% higher and severity rates of those hospitalized were 20%-90% higher in the post-pandemic period than the pandemic. Adults (45-64-years-old) had the highest ventilation and pneumonia hospitalization rates. Hospitalizations did not lag infection during the pandemic for the young (<24-years-old) but lagged by one or more weeks for all ages in the post-pandemic period., Discussion: The post-pandemic flu season exhibited heightened H1N1 severity, long after the pandemic was declared over. Policymakers should remain vigilant even after pandemics seem to have subsided. Analysis of administrative hospital data and epidemiological modelling estimates can provide valuable insights to inform responses to COVID-19 and future influenza and other disease pandemics., (Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

We evaluate the impacts of implementing and lifting nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in US counties on the daily growth rate of COVID-19 cases and compliance, measured through the percentage of devices staying home, and evaluate whether introducing and lifting NPIs protecting selective populations is an effective strategy. We use difference-in-differences methods, leveraging on daily county-level data and exploit the staggered introduction and lifting of policies across counties over time. We also assess heterogenous impacts due to counties' population characteristics, namely ethnicity and household income. Results show that introducing NPIs led to a reduction in cases through the percentage of devices staying home. When counties lifted NPIs, they benefited from reduced mobility outside of the home during the lockdown, but only for a short period. In the long term, counties experienced diminished health and mobility gains accrued from previously implemented policies. Notably, we find heterogenous impacts due to population characteristics implying that measures can mitigate the disproportionate burden of COVID-19 on marginalized populations and find that selectively targeting populations may not be effective., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest., (Copyright © 2021 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

Little is known about the role of clinicians in accounting for adoption and diffusion of medical innovations, especially within the English National Health System. This study examines the importance of surgical consultants and their work-based networks on the diffusion of an important innovation, minimally invasive elective laparoscopic colectomy for colorectal cancer. The study used linked patient-level and workforce data on 260,110 elective colectomies and 1288 consultants between 2000 and 2014, to examine adoption of laparoscopic colectomy pre- and post-introduction of clinical guidelines and total share of colectomies performed laparoscopically by adopters. Laparoscopy as a share of elective colectomy increased from 0% in 2000 to 53% in 2014. Surgeons, rather than hospitals, were the principal agents accounting for the increase and explain 46.6% of the variance in laparoscopic colectomy use. Female surgeons, surgeons trained outside the United Kingdom, and recent graduates had higher rates of laparoscopy adoption. More experienced surgeons and surgeons with more peers who perform laparoscopy were more likely to adopt, adopt early and have greater use of laparoscopy. Targeting clinicians, rather than hospitals, is central to increasing adoption and diffusion of new medical technologies., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: To calculate hospital surge capacity, achieved via hospital provision interventions implemented for the emergency treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and other patients through March to May 2020; to evaluate the conditions for admitting patients for elective surgery under varying admission levels of COVID-19 patients., Methods: We analysed National Health Service (NHS) datasets and literature reviews to estimate hospital care capacity before the pandemic (pre-pandemic baseline) and to quantify the impact of interventions (cancellation of elective surgery, field hospitals, use of private hospitals, deployment of former medical staff and deployment of newly qualified medical staff) for treatment of adult COVID-19 patients, focusing on general and acute (G&A) and critical care (CC) beds, staff and ventilators., Results: NHS England would not have had sufficient capacity to treat all COVID-19 and other patients in March and April 2020 without the hospital provision interventions, which alleviated significant shortfalls in CC nurses, CC and G&A beds and CC junior doctors. All elective surgery can be conducted at normal pre-pandemic levels provided the other interventions are sustained, but only if the daily number of COVID-19 patients occupying CC beds is not greater than 1550 in the whole of England. If the other interventions are not maintained, then elective surgery can only be conducted if the number of COVID-19 patients occupying CC beds is not greater than 320. However, there is greater national capacity to treat G&A patients: without interventions, it takes almost 10,000 G&A COVID-19 patients before any G&A elective patients would be unable to be accommodated., Conclusions: Unless COVID-19 hospitalisations drop to low levels, there is a continued need to enhance critical care capacity in England with field hospitals, use of private hospitals or deployment of former and newly qualified medical staff to allow some or all elective surgery to take place.

The World Health Organization highlights fiscal policies as priority interventions for the promotion of healthy eating in its Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Non-communicable Diseases. The taxation of sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) in particular is noted to be an effective measure, and SSBs taxes have already been implemented in several countries worldwide. However, although the evidence base suggests that this will be effective in helping to combat rising obesity rates, opponents of SSBs taxation argue that it is illiberal and paternalistic, and therefore should be avoided. Bioethical analysis may play an essential role in clarifying whether policymakers should adopt SSBs taxes as part of wider obesity strategy. In this article we argue that no single ethical theory can account for the complexities inherent in obesity prevention strategy, especially the liberal theories relied upon by opponents of SSBs taxation. We contend that a pluralist approach to the ethics of SSBs taxation must be adopted as the only suitable way of accounting for the multiple overlapping, and sometimes, conflicting factors that are relevant to determining the moral acceptability of such an intervention., (Copyright © 2020 Goiana-da-Silva, Cruz-e-Silva, Bartlett, Vasconcelos, Morais Nunes, Ashrafian, Miraldo, Machado, Araújo and Darzi.)

The United States has one of the lowest exclusive breastfeeding rates among high-income countries. Most experts agree that there is a lack of mother-friendly workplace policies compared to other countries. Since 1995, 25 states have implemented workplace breastfeeding legislation allowing mothers to express and store breast milk in the workplace. There is heterogeneity in policy enforceability where 17 states have weak enforceability while eight states have strict enforceability and require employers to offer provisions to breastfeed at the workplace. Using difference-in-differences methods, we examine the impact of this policy on state-level breastfeeding rates and assess how that impact differs with policy enforceability. We use data from the Centers for Disease Control on breastfeeding, supplementing with socio-economic data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, Current Population Survey, the US Census Bureau and several other datasets over 22 years from 1990 to 2011. We find that states with legislation experienced a 2.3-percentage point increase in breastfeeding rates compared to states without legislation while states with weak enforceability experienced a 3.1-percentage point increase compared to states without legislation. We also find that policies do not start to have an impact until 1-2 years after they were signed into law. Considering the recent assault on breastfeeding from the current administration, our study is a timely and important contribution that strengthens the evidence base for the health benefits of workplace breastfeeding policies., (© 2020 Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Background: Excessive consumption of sugar has a well-established link with obesity. Preliminary results show that a tax levied on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) by the Portuguese government in 2017 led to a drop in sales and reformulation of these products. This study models the impact the market changes triggered by the tax levied on SSBs had on obesity incidence across various age groups in Portugal., Methods and Findings: We performed a national market analysis and population-wide modelling study using market data for the years 2014-2018 from the Portuguese Association of Non-Alcoholic Drinks (GlobalData and Nielsen Consumer Panel), dietary data from a national survey (IAN-AF 2015-2016), and obesity incidence data from several cohort studies. Dietary energy density from SSBs was calculated by dividing the energy content (kcal/gram) of all SSBs by the total food consumption (in grams). We used the potential impact fraction (PIF) equation to model the projected impact of the tax-triggered change in sugar consumption on obesity incidence, through both volume reduction and reformulation. Results showed a reduction of 6.6 million litres of SSBs sold per year. Product reformulation led to a decrease in the average energy density of SSBs by 3.1 kcal/100 ml. This is estimated to have prevented around 40-78 cases of obesity per year between 2016 and 2018, with the biggest projected impact observed in adolescents 10 to <18 years old. The model shows that the implementation of this tax allowed for a 4 to 8 times larger projected impact against obesity than would be achieved though reformulation alone. The main limitation of this study is that the model we used includes data from various sources, which can result in biases-despite our efforts to mitigate them-related to the methodological differences between these sources., Conclusions: The tax triggered both a reduction in demand and product reformulation. These, together, can reduce obesity levels among frequent consumers of SSBs. Such taxation is an effective population-wide intervention. Reformulation alone, without the decrease in sales, would have had a far smaller effect on obesity incidence in the Portuguese population., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: Voluntary licences are increasingly being used to expand access to patented essential medicines in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Since 2014, non-exclusive voluntary licences have been issued by Gilead and Bristol-Myers Squibb for key drugs for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. We aimed to evaluate the effect of these licences on access to HCV treatment., Methods: We conducted a difference-in-differences analysis, exploiting the staggered and selective introduction of voluntary licensing in different countries, to identify the effect of voluntary licensing agreements on treatment uptake. We extracted Polaris Observatory data on the total number of people infected with HCV, diagnosed with HCV, and treated for HCV, and constructed a longitudinal panel of LMICs over a 13-year period (2004-16). Countries were included if they were classified as LMICs by the World Bank in 2014, and had available data on HCV outcomes. The exposure was defined as inclusion in any voluntary licence agreement for HCV drugs. Treatment uptake was calculated as the number of people treated for HCV in a given year per 1000 living people ever diagnosed with HCV. We fit difference-in-differences linear regression models controlling for different confounders that could influence treatment access and uptake, including country and year fixed effects and a range of country-level factors. We additionally assessed the dynamics of the effect and the robustness of our findings., Findings: 35 countries were included in the panel: 19 in the intervention group and 16 in the control group. In the simplest model, adjusting only for country and year fixed effects, voluntary licences were associated with an increase in the annual number of people accessing HCV treatment of 69·3 per 1000 diagnosed (95% CI 46·7-91·9; p=0·0060). After adjusting for country-level covariates, this increase was 53·6 per 1000 diagnosed (25·8-81·5; p=0·0354). The effect of licensing increased over time, and was largest in the second year after implementation. Results were robust to alternative specifications., Interpretation: Voluntary licensing initiatives appear to substantially improve HCV treatment uptake in eligible countries. This evidence supports the expansion of licensing strategies to include more countries and more treatments., Funding: Unitaid and Médecins Sans Frontières., (Copyright © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Objective: To model the reduction in premature deaths attributed to noncommunicable diseases if targets for reformulation of processed food agreed between the Portuguese health ministry and the food industry were met., Methods: The 2015 co-regulation agreement sets voluntary targets for reducing sugar, salt and trans-fatty acids in a range of products by 2021. We obtained government data on dietary intake in 2015-2016 and on population structure and deaths from four major noncommunicable diseases over 1990-2016. We used the Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl tool to estimate the deaths averted if reformulation targets were met in full. We projected future trends in noncommunicable disease deaths using regression modelling and assessed whether Portugal was on track to reduce baseline premature deaths from noncommunicable diseases in the year 2010 by 25% by 2025, and by 30% before 2030., Findings: If reformulation targets were met, we projected reductions in intake in 2015-2016 for salt from 7.6 g/day to 7.1 g/day; in total energy from 1911 kcal/day to 1897 kcal/day due to reduced sugar intake; and in total fat (% total energy) from 30.4% to 30.3% due to reduced trans-fat intake. This consumption profile would result in 248 fewer premature noncommunicable disease deaths (95% CI: 178 to 318) in 2016. We projected that full implementation of the industry agreement would reduce the risk of premature death from 11.0% in 2016 to 10.7% by 2021., Conclusion: The co-regulation agreement could save lives and reduce the risk of premature death in Portugal. Nevertheless, the projected impact on mortality was insufficient to meet international targets.

We test the physicians' altruism and moral hazard hypotheses using a national panel register containing all 2003-2010 statins prescriptions in Finland. We estimate the likelihood that physicians prescribe generic versus branded versions of statins as a function of the shares of the difference between what patients have to pay out of their pocket and what is covered by the insurance, controlling for patient, physician, and drug characteristics. We find that the estimated coefficients and the average marginal effects associated with moral hazard and altruism are nearly zero, and are orders of magnitude smaller than the ones associated with other explanatory factors such as the prescriptions' year and the physician specialization. When the analysis distinctly accounts for both the patient and the insurer shares of expenditure, the estimated coefficients directly reject the altruism and moral hazard hypotheses. Instead, we find strong and robust evidence of habits persistence in prescribing branded drugs., (Copyright © 2019. Published by Elsevier B.V.)

Influenza pandemics considerably burden affected health systems due to surges in inpatient admissions and associated costs. Previous studies underestimate or overestimate 2009/2010 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic hospital admissions and costs. We robustly estimate overall and age-specific weekly H1N1 admissions and costs between June 2009 and March 2011 across 170 English hospitals. We calculate H1N1 admissions and costs as the difference between our administrative data of all influenza-like-illness patients (seasonal and pandemic alike) and a counterfactual of expected weekly seasonal influenza admissions and costs established using time-series models on prepandemic (2004-2008) data. We find two waves of H1N1 admissions: one pandemic wave (June 2009-March 2010) with 10,348 admissions costing £20.5 million and one postpandemic wave (November 2010-March 2011) with 11,775 admissions costing £24.8 million. Patients aged 0-4 years old have the highest H1N1 admission rate, and 25- to 44- and 65+-year-olds have the highest costs. Our estimates are up to 4.3 times higher than previous reports, suggesting that the pandemic's burden on hospitals was formerly underassessed. Our findings can help hospitals manage unexpected surges in admissions and resource use due to pandemics., (© 2018 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Although it is commonly argued that there is a mismatch between drug innovation and disease burden, there is little evidence on the magnitude and direction of such disparities. In this paper, we measure inequality in innovation, by comparing research and development activity with population health and gross domestic product data across 493 therapeutic indications to globally measure: (a) drug innovation, (b) disease burden, and (c) market size. We use concentration curves and indices to assess inequality at two levels: (a) broad disease groups and (b) disease subcategories for both 1990 and 2010. For some top burden disease subcategories (i.e., cardiovascular and circulatory diseases, neoplasms, and musculoskeletal disorders), innovation is disproportionately concentrated in diseases with high disease burden and large market size, whereas for others (i.e., mental and behavioral disorders, neonatal disorders, and neglected tropical diseases) innovation is disproportionately concentrated in low burden diseases. These inequalities persisted over time, suggesting inertia in pharmaceutical research and development in tackling the global health challenges. Our results confirm quantitatively assertions about the mismatch between disease burden and pharmaceutical innovation in both developed and developing countries and highlight the disease areas for which morbidity and mortality remain unaddressed., (© 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

In 2006, the Massachusetts healthcare reform was introduced to mandate health insurance, extend eligibility of publicly subsidised health insurance, improve quality and access to care and develop preventive health services. The objective of this study was to determine the impact of expanding publicly subsidised health insurance through the Massachusetts reform on access to primary care, disease management and behavioural risk factors. Using cross-sectional data from the Behavioural Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) from 2001 to 2010 and exploiting the selective introduction of the healthcare reform, we assessed its impact on primary care access, behavioural risk factors, such as obesity, and receipt of diabetes management tests. We did so using a differences-in-differences methodology by comparing Massachusetts with other New England States for 131,002 adults under 300% of the federal poverty level and by race/ethnicity within this group. Triple difference estimates were also conducted to control for potential within state time varying confounding factors. The results suggest that increasing publicly subsidised health insurance had a positive impact on primary care access for lower income adults, particularly those that are white. However, with the exception of improvements in alcohol consumption for one specific group (lower income whites) the reform had no effect on behaviour risk factors or diabetes disease management. The aims of the reform were to improve access to care and through this, behavioural risk factors and diabetes management. This study suggests that while access to care was increased, reducing risk factors attributed to health risky behaviour and diabetes cannot be sufficiently done simply by extending health insurance coverage and the provision of preventive services. This suggests that more targeted interventions are required., (Crown Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Waiting time for non-emergency medical care in developing countries is rarely of immediate concern to policy makers that prioritize provision of basic health services. However, waiting time as a measure of health system responsiveness is important because longer waiting times worsen health outcomes and affect utilization of services. Studies that assess socio-economic inequalities in waiting time provide evidence from developed countries such as England and the United States; evidence from developing countries is lacking. In this paper, we assess the relationship between social class i.e. caste of an individual and waiting time at health facilities-a client orientation dimension of responsiveness. We use household level data from two rounds of the Indian Human Development Survey with a sample size of 27,251 households in each wave (2005 and 2012) and find that lower social class is associated with higher waiting time. This relationship is significant for individuals that visited a male provider but not so for those that visited a female provider. Further, caste is positively related to higher waiting time only if visiting a private facility; for individuals visiting a government facility the relationship between waiting time and caste is not significant. In general, caste related inequality in waiting time has worsened over time. The results are robust to different specifications and the inclusion of several confounders., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: International and domestic funding for malaria is critically important to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Its equitable distribution is key in ensuring that the available, scarce, resources are deployed efficiently for improved progress and a sustained response that enables eradication., Methods: We used concentration curves and concentration indices to assess inequalities in malaria funding by different donors across countries, measuring both horizontal and vertical equity. Horizontal equity assesses whether funding is distributed in proportion to health needs, whereas vertical equity examines whether unequal economic needs are addressed by appropriately unequal funding. We computed the Health Inequity Index and the Kakwani Index to assess the former and the latter, respectively. We used data from the World Bank, Global Fund, Unicef, President's Malaria Initiative and the Malaria Atlas Project to assess the distribution of funding against need for 94 countries. National gross domestic product per capita was used as a proxy for economic need and 'population-at-risk' for health need., Findings: The level and direction of inequity varies across funding sources. Unicef and the President's Malaria Initiative were the most horizontally inequitable ( pro-poor ). Inequity as shown by the Health Inequity Index for Unicef decreased from -0.40 (P<0.05) in 2006 to -0.25 (P<0.10) in 2008, and increased again to -0.58 (P<0.01) in 2009. For President's Malaria Initiative, it increased from -0.19 (P>0.10) in 2006 to -0.38 (P<0.05) in 2008, and decreased to -0.36 (P<0.10) in 2010. Domestic funding was inequitable ( pro-rich ) with inequity increasing from 0.28 (P<0.01) in 2006 to 0.39 (P<0.01) in 2009, and then decreasing to 0.22 (P<0.10) in 2010. Funding from the World Bank and the Global Fund was distributed proportionally according to need. In terms of vertical inequity, all sources were progressive: Unicef and the President's Malaria Initiative were the most progressive with the Kakwani Indices ranging from -0.97 (P<0.01) to -1.29 (P<0.01), and -0.90 (P<0.01) to -1.10 (P<0.01), respectively., Conclusion: Our results suggest that external funding of malaria treatment tends to be allocated to countries with higher health and economic need but not in proportion to their relative health need and income when compared to other countries. While malaria eradication might require funders to disproportionally allocate funding that goes beyond (financial and health) need, our analysis highlights that funders might potentially be targeting in excess certain countries. Regular assessments of need and greater coordination among donors are necessary for equitable resource allocation, to improve and sustain progress with malaria control and elimination., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared.

The majority of the current systems spread across the world require the value of pharmaceuticals to be demonstrated with an acceptable degree of certainty before a technology is funded. Often involving the notion of cost-effectiveness, one of the key characteristics of such assessments tends to be the consideration of efficiency as a static outcome; with a strong emphasis on current health gains but a disregard for the impact of decision making on the potential health value over time. In this article, we argue that current systems using cost-effectiveness thresholds may provide an incomplete indicator of value. We defend the idea that funding decisions should also be informed by dynamic efficiency considerations and reflect both the current and the future value of achieving a certain level of effectiveness in a specific disease area. We further lay down the foundations for the implementation of such a value assessment framework., (Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

We conduct a framed field experiment among patients and doctors to test whether the two groups have similar risk and time preferences. We elicit risk and time preferences using multiple price list tests and their adaptations to the healthcare context. Risk and time preferences are compared in terms of switching points in the tests and the structurally estimated behavioural parameters. We find that doctors and patients significantly differ in their time preferences: doctors discount future outcomes less heavily than patients. We find no evidence that doctors and patients systematically differ in their risk preferences in the healthcare domain., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

We present results from a hypothetical framed field experiment assessing whether risk preferences significantly differ across the health and financial domains when they are elicited through the same multiple price list paired-lottery method. We consider a sample of 300 patients attending outpatient clinics in a university hospital in Athens during the Greek financial crisis. Risk preferences in finance were elicited using paired-lottery questions with hypothetical payments. The questions were adapted to the health domain by framing the lotteries as risky treatments in hypothetical health care scenarios. Using maximum likelihood methods, we estimated the degree of risk aversion, allowing for the estimates to be dependent on domain and individual characteristics. The subjects in our sample, who were exposed to both health and financial distress, tended to be less risk averse in the financial domain than in the health domain., (© The Author(s) 2016.)

Background: While immunization is one of the most effective and successful public health interventions, there are still up to 30,000 deaths in major developed economies each year due to vaccine-preventable diseases, almost all in adults. In the UK, despite comparatively high vaccination rates among ≥65 s (73%) and, to a lesser extent, at-risk ≤65 s (52%) in 2013/2014, over 10,000 excess deaths were reported the previous influenza season. Adult tetanus vaccines are not routinely recommended in the UK, but may be overly administered. Social influences and risk-perceptions of diseases and vaccines are known to affect vaccine uptake. We aimed to explore the socio-psychological factors that drive adult vaccination in the UK, specifically influenza and tetanus, and to evaluate whether these factors are comparable between vaccines., Methods: 20 in-depth, face-to-face interviews were conducted with members of the UK public who represented a range of socio-demographic characteristics associated with vaccination uptake. We employed qualitative interviewing approaches to reach a comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing adult vaccination decisions. Thematic analysis was used to analyze the data., Results: Participants were classified according to their vaccination status as regular, intermittent and non-vaccinators for influenza, and preventative, injury-led, mixed (both preventative and injury-led) and as non-vaccinators for tetanus. We present our finding around five overarching themes: 1) perceived health and health behaviors; 2) knowledge; 3) vaccination influences; 4) disease appraisal; and 5) vaccination appraisal., Conclusion: The uptake of influenza and tetanus vaccines was largely driven by participants' risk perception of these diseases. The tetanus vaccine is perceived as safe and sufficiently tested, whereas the changing composition of the influenza vaccine is a cause of uncertainty and distrust. To maximize the public health impact of adult vaccines, policy should be better translated into high vaccination rates through evidence-based implementation approaches.

We investigate the extent to which respondents from a general population sample in London (July-August 2011) agree or disagree with the NHS covering the healthcare costs related to five risky health behaviours: overeating, unhealthy diet, sedentary life, excess of alcohol, and smoking. For each behaviour, we also directly explore the main factors associated with the likelihood to agree or disagree. Half of the respondents (N=146) manifest agreement with the idea. Wider agreement exists for covering the costs associated smoking, heavy drinking, and sedentary lives than with overeating, or poor diets. With the exception of alcohol drinking and sedentary life, there is an almost one-to-one relationship between the agreement that the NHS should pay the healthcare costs associated with a specific behaviour, and the respondents' actual engagement in that behaviour. Those at higher risk of depending on publicly funded healthcare, are more likely to agree., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Following suggestions that developers should be allowed to capture a defined share of the total value generated by their technologies, the amount of surplus accruing to the pharmaceutical industry has become an important concept when discussing policies to encourage innovation in healthcare., Methods: Observational clinical and market data spanning over a period of 20 years were applied in order to estimate the social surplus generated by pharmaceuticals used in the management of high cholesterol and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The distribution of social surplus between consumers and producers was also computed and the dynamics of rent extraction examined., Results: Health-related social surplus increased consistently over time for both disease areas, mostly due to the launch of more effective technologies and a greater number of patients being treated for the conditions. However, the growth rate of social surplus differed for each disease and dissimilar patterns of distribution between consumer and producer surplus emerged across the years. For lipid-lowering therapies, yearly consumer surplus reaches 85 % of total health-related social surplus after the loss of exclusivity of major molecules, whilst for COPD it ranges from 54 to 69 %. Average producer surplus is approximately 25 % of total health-related social surplus in the lipid-lowering market between 1990 and 2010, and 37 % for COPD between 2001 and 2010. The share of surplus captured by non-innovative generic producers also varies differently across periods for both markets, reaching 11.12 % in the case of lipid-lowering therapies but just 1.55 % in the case of COPD., Conclusion: A considerable amount of the value may be recouped by consumers only towards the end of the lifecycle. Elements affecting the distribution of social surplus vary across disease areas and include the market pricing structure and the pattern of clinical effectiveness observed over time. The application of a longer-term disease specific perspective may be required when assessing the cost-effectiveness of health technologies at launch.

Introduction: In the past two decades, childhood vaccination coverage has increased dramatically, averting an estimated 2-3 million deaths per year. Adult vaccination coverage, however, remains inconsistently recorded and substandard. Although structural barriers are known to limit coverage, social and psychological factors can also affect vaccine uptake. Previous qualitative studies have explored beliefs, attitudes and preferences associated with seasonal influenza (flu) vaccination uptake, yet little research has investigated how participants' context and experiences influence their vaccination decision-making process over time. This paper aims to provide a detailed account of a mixed methods approach designed to understand the wider constellation of social and psychological factors likely to influence adult vaccination decisions, as well as the context in which these decisions take place, in the USA, the UK, France, India, China and Brazil., Methods and Analysis: We employ a combination of qualitative interviewing approaches to reach a comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing vaccination decisions, specifically seasonal flu and tetanus. To elicit these factors, we developed the journey to vaccination, a new qualitative approach anchored on the heuristics and biases tradition and the customer journey mapping approach. A purposive sampling strategy is used to select participants who represent a range of key sociodemographic characteristics. Thematic analysis will be used to analyse the data. Typical journeys to vaccination will be proposed., Ethics and Dissemination: Vaccination uptake is significantly influenced by social and psychological factors, some of which are under-reported and poorly understood. This research will provide a deeper understanding of the barriers and drivers to adult vaccination. Our findings will be published in relevant peer-reviewed journals and presented at academic conferences. They will also be presented as practical recommendations at policy and industry meetings and healthcare professionals' forums. This research was approved by relevant local ethics committees.

Background: The concept of cost effectiveness emerged in an attempt to link the prices of new healthcare technologies to the immediate value they provide, with payers defining the acceptable cost per unit of incremental effect over the alternatives available. It has been suggested that such measures allow developers to assess potential market profitability in an early stage of development, but may result in discouraging investment in efficient research if not used appropriately., Objective: The objective of this study is to identify the pattern of the factors determining cost effectiveness and assess the evolution of cost-effectiveness potential for drugs in development using lipid-lowering therapy as a case study., Methods: The study is based on observational clinical and market data covering a 20-year period (from 1990 to 2010) in the UK. Real-life clinical data including total cholesterol laboratory test results were extracted from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) and are used to illustrate how the clinical effectiveness of existing standard care changed over time in patients managed in clinical practice. Prescription Cost Analysis (PCA) data were extracted and the average price of the drug mix used was computed throughout the study period. Using this information, the maximum clinical benefit and cost savings to be had were estimated for each year of the analysis using a cost-effectiveness model. Subsequently, the highest price a new technology providing the maximum clinical effectiveness possible (i.e. eliminating cardiovascular risk from high cholesterol levels) could achieve under current cost-effectiveness rules was calculated and used as a measure of the potential cost effectiveness of drugs in development., Results: The results in this study show that the total cholesterol values of patients managed in clinical practice moved steadily towards recommended clinical targets. Overall, the absolute potential for incremental health-related quality of life decreased by approximately 78 %, contracting from 0.36 QALYs to 0.08 QALYs, which resulted in a saving of approximately 15 % of the costs related to cardiovascular events. The price of the drug mix used in the management of high blood cholesterol varied considerably across the years: the weighted average monthly price (in year 2007 values) started at approximately £14, peaked around £26 and progressively decreased to its minimum at £6.85 in 2010. As a consequence, the maximum price allowed by current cost-effectiveness rules for a new technology achieving the clinical target was found to decrease by a minimum of 80 % between 1990 and 2010., Conclusion: The analysis supports the hypothesis that the potential for cost effectiveness of new therapies is dependent on factors specific to each disease area and furthermore to sub-populations within disease areas. Despite a clinical need still existing, the results suggest that no more technologies are likely to be developed in certain disease areas based on their low perceived cost-effectiveness potential. This occurs without considering the immediate and future value of the effectiveness lost, which may depend on the technical difficulty of materializing future advancements, and ignores the permanent character of such a decision. The analysis suggests that a single, static and arbitrary cost-effectiveness threshold may not be sufficient to capture the drug-development dynamics occurring at the disease level and successfully direct research to the disease areas that are most valued by society.

Objectives: To explore the extent to which doctor-rating websites are known and used among a sample of respondents from London. To understand the main predictors of what makes people willing to use doctor-rating websites., Design: A cross-sectional study., Setting: The Borough of Hammersmith and Fulham, London, England., Participants: 200 individuals from the borough., Main Outcome Measures: The likelihood of being aware of doctor-rating websites and the intention to use doctor-rating websites., Results: The use and awareness of doctor-rating websites are still quite limited. White British subjects, as well as respondents with higher income are less likely to use doctor-rating websites. Aspects of the doctor-patient relationship also play a key role in explaining intention to use the websites. The doctor has both a 'complementary' and 'substitute' role with respect to Internet information., Conclusions: Online rating websites can play a major role in supporting patients' informed decisions on which healthcare providers to seek advice from, thus potentially fostering patients' choice in healthcare. Subjects who seek and provide feedback on doctor-ranking websites, though, are unlikely to be representative of the overall patients' pool. In particular, they tend to over-represent opinions from non-White British, medium-low-income patients who are not satisfied with their choice of the healthcare treatments and the level of information provided by their GP. Accounting for differences in the users' characteristics is important when interpreting results from doctor-rating sites.

According to the World Health Report 2000, health system responsiveness is proposed as one of the three key objectives of any health system. This multi-domain concept describes how well a health system responds to the expectations of their users concerning the non-health enhancing aspects of care. In this study we aim to compare the levels of responsiveness experienced by users of private and publicly managed hospitals in Nigeria, and through these insights, to propose recommendations on how to improve performance on this measure. This quantitative, cross-sectional study uses a questionnaire that is adapted from two responsiveness surveys designed by the World Health Organization (WHO). Researchers collected responses from 520 respondents from four hospitals in Lagos, Nigeria. Analysis of the data using statistical techniques found that significant differences exist between the performance of public and private hospitals on certain domains of responsiveness, with privately operated hospitals performing better where differences exist. Users of private hospitals also reported a higher level of overall satisfaction. Private hospitals were found to perform particularly better on the domains of dignity, waiting times, and travel times. These findings have implications for the management of public hospitals in focusing their efforts on improving their performance in low scoring domains. Performance in these hospitals can be improved by emphasis on staff training and demand management.

We analyse the properties of optimal price adjustment to hospitals when no lump-sum transfers are allowed and when prices differ to reflect observable exogenous differences in costs. We find that: (a) when the marginal benefit from treatment is decreasing and the cost function is the power function, price adjustment for hospitals with higher costs is positive but partial; if the marginal benefit is constant, the price is identical across providers; (b) if the cost function is exponential or it is separable in monetary and non-monetary costs (and linear in monetary costs), price adjustment is positive even when the marginal benefit is constant; (c) higher inequality aversion of the purchaser increases concentration in prices and lowers concentration in quantities; (d) if some dimensions of costs are private information, a higher correlation between the observable and unobservable cost component increases the optimal price for providers whose observable costs are above the average., (Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Activity-based funding involves remunerating healthcare providers a fixed price per patient in each payment category. However, no categorisation system can account perfectly for differences in patient complexity. Differences may be systematic if providers routinely attract high-risk patients or engage in patient selection. Such differences may be evident in the English National Health Service (NHS) following the introduction of treatment centres that concentrate on providing a small number of high-volume procedures. We analyse data for more than 3.3 million patients to assess whether the complexity of those treated in hospitals and treatment centres differs within twenty-nine payment categories, defined by Healthcare Resource Groups (HRGs). We find that patients treated in hospitals were more likely to come from more deprived areas, to have more diagnoses and to undergo significantly more procedures than patients seen by treatment centres, suggesting that hospitals are treating more complex cases. If these observed differences between hospitals and treatment centres drive costs, then payments should be refined to ensure fair reimbursement.

The viability of unicondylar knee arthroplasty (UKA) as a stand-alone or temporising option for the management of gonarthrosis is a topic of considerable contention. Despite recent advances in prosthesis design and surgical technique, as well as mounting evidence of long-term survivorship, UKA remains infrequently used, accounting for just 8-15% of all knee arthroplasties. Instead this group is more typically managed using total knee arthroplasty (TKA). For UKA to warrant increased usage the candidacy for UKA must be prevalent, the outcome must be equivalent or superior to that of TKA, and the costs should be comparatively low. Here we address three issues regarding UKA: 1) a prospective assessment of the proportion of knees needing arthroplasty that are candidates for UKA; 2) retrospective outcome measures comparing TKA, UKA and controls; and 3) an estimation of the difference in costs between TKA and UKA from a hospital perspective. We show in a series of 200 knees that candidacy for UKA is widespread; representing 47.6% of knees. Furthermore, we also show for the first time, that not only is UKA functionally superior to TKA (based on Total Knee Questionnaire (TKQ) scores), but scores in medial and lateral UKA knees do not differ significantly from normal, non-operative age- and sex-matched knees (t=1.14 [38], p=0.163; and t=1.16 [38], p=0.255 respectively). Finally, we report that UKA offers a substantial cost saving over TKA ( pound 1761 per knee) indicating that UKA should be considered the primary treatment option for unicompartmental knee arthritis.

The English government has encouraged private providers - known as Independent Sector Treatment Centres (ISTCs) - to treat publicly funded (NHS) patients. All providers are to be remunerated under a prospective payment system that offers a price per case treated, adjusted by the Market Forces Factor (MFF) to reflect geographical variation in specific input costs. This payment system presupposes that any remaining cost differentials between providers result from inefficiencies. However, the validity of this assumption is unclear. This article describes the constraints that could cause public and private provider costs to differ for reasons outside their control. These constraints may be regulatory in nature, such as taxes and performance management regimens, or relate to the production process, such as input costs, the provision of emergency care, and case mix issues. Most of these exogenous cost differentials can be rectified by adjustments either to the regulatory system or to the payment method. However, differences in capital costs appear less tractable and further investigation into possible solutions is warranted.

Within a horizontal differentiation model and allowing for heterogeneous qualities, we analyze the effects of reference pricing reimbursement on firms' pricing strategies. With this analysis we find inherent incentives for firms' pricing behavior, and consequently we shed some light on the time consistency of such policy. The analysis encompasses different reference price rules: (i) reference price as the minimum of the observed prices in the market, (ii) reference price as a linear combination of firms' prices. Results show that under the "minimum policy" firms are not able to coordinate on higher prices while the "linear policy", implicitly, provides a coordination device. We have also found that, relatively to the "linear policy", when the reference price is the minimum of observed prices, after policy implementation, total and private expenditures are higher and consumer surplus and firms' profits are lower. With quality differentiation both the minimum and linear policies unambiguously lead to higher prices.

In 2003 a new type of provider organisation, the Foundation Trust (FT), was introduced in England, and the best performing NHS hospitals were able to apply for 'Foundation status'. FTs enjoy greater financial flexibility and are subject to less central monitoring and control. The phased introduction of FTs represents an opportunity to examine whether the new financial structures facing FTs have produced any differences in financial performance compared with non-FTs. We use difference in difference methods to examine whether Foundation status had a significant effect on financial management. We find that Foundation status has had a limited impact in terms of acting as an instrument to signal strong financial management of FTs. This result may reflect the relatively early stage of the FT process or may be due to the fact that all types of Trusts are experiencing a challenging financial environment, including the introduction of a prospective payment system. However, we explore the nature of the trends emerging over time and discuss the implications of our findings for policy.