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Genotype imputation methods have become increasingly popular for recovering untyped genotype data. An important application with imputed genotypes is to test genetic association for diseases. Imputation-based association test can provide additional insight beyond what is provided by testing on typed tagging SNPs only. A variety of effective imputation-based association tests have been proposed. However, their performances are affected by a variety of genetic factors, which have not been well studied. In this study, using both simulated and real data sets, we investigated the effects of LD, MAF of untyped causal SNP and imputation accuracy rate on the performances of seven popular imputation-based association methods, including MACH2qtl/dat, SNPTEST, ProbABEL, Beagle, Plink, BIMBAM and SNPMStat. We also aimed to provide a comprehensive comparison among methods. Results show that: 1). imputation-based association tests can boost signals and improve power under medium and high LD levels, with the power improvement increasing with strengthening LD level; 2) the power increases with higher MAF of untyped causal SNPs under medium to high LD level; 3). under low LD level, a high imputation accuracy rate cannot guarantee an improvement of power; 4). among methods, MACH2qtl/dat, ProbABEL and SNPTEST perform similarly and they consistently outperform other methods. Our results are helpful in guiding the choice of imputation-based association test in practical application.

Distributions of the backbone dihedral angles of proteins have been studied for over 40 years. While many statistical analyses have been presented, only a handful of probability densities are publicly available for use in structure validation and structure prediction methods. The available distributions differ in a number of important ways, which determine their usefulness for various purposes. These include: 1) input data size and criteria for structure inclusion (resolution, R-factor, etc.); 2) filtering of suspect conformations and outliers using B-factors or other features; 3) secondary structure of input data (e.g., whether helix and sheet are included; whether beta turns are included); 4) the method used for determining probability densities ranging from simple histograms to modern nonparametric density estimation; and 5) whether they include nearest neighbor effects on the distribution of conformations in different regions of the Ramachandran map. In this work, Ramachandran probability distributions are presented for residues in protein loops from a high-resolution data set with filtering based on calculated electron densities. Distributions for all 20 amino acids (with cis and trans proline treated separately) have been determined, as well as 420 left-neighbor and 420 right-neighbor dependent distributions. The neighbor-independent and neighbor-dependent probability densities have been accurately estimated using Bayesian nonparametric statistical analysis based on the Dirichlet process. In particular, we used hierarchical Dirichlet process priors, which allow sharing of information between densities for a particular residue type and different neighbor residue types. The resulting distributions are tested in a loop modeling benchmark with the program Rosetta, and are shown to improve protein loop conformation prediction significantly. The distributions are available at http://dunbrack.fccc.edu/hdp., Author Summary The three-dimensional structure of a protein enables it to perform its specific function, which may be catalysis, DNA binding, cell signaling, maintaining cell shape and structure, or one of many other functions. Predicting the structures of proteins is an important goal of computational biology. One way of doing this is to figure out the rules that determine protein structure from protein sequences by determining how local protein sequence is associated with local protein structure. That is, many (but not all) of the interactions that determine protein structure occur between amino acids that are a short distance away from each other in the sequence. This is particularly true in the irregular parts of protein structure, often called loops. In this work, we have performed a statistical analysis of the structure of the protein backbone in loops as a function of the protein sequence. We have determined how an amino acid bends the local backbone due to its amino acid type and the amino acid types of its neighbors. We used a recently developed statistical method that is particularly suited to this problem. The analysis shows that backbone conformation prediction can be improved using the information in the statistical distributions we have developed.

In many developmental systems, spatial pattern arises from morphogen gradients, which provide positional information for cells to determine their fate. Typically, diffusion is thought to be the mechanism responsible for building a morphogen gradient. An alternative mechanism is investigated here. Using mathematical modeling, we demonstrate how a non-diffusive morphogen concentration gradient can develop in axially growing tissue systems, where growth is due to cell proliferation only. Two distinct cases are considered: in the first, all cell proliferation occurs in a localized zone where active transcription of a morphogen-producing gene occurs, and in the second, cell proliferation is uniformly distributed throughout the tissue, occurring in both the active transcription zone and beyond. A cell containing morphogen mRNA produces the morphogen protein, hence any gradient in mRNA transcripts translates into a corresponding morphogen protein gradient. Proliferation-driven growth gives rise to both advection (the transport term) and dilution (a reaction term). These two key mechanisms determine the resultant mRNA transcript distribution. Using the full range of uniform initial conditions, we show that advection and dilution due to cell proliferation are, in general, sufficient for morphogen gradient formation for both types of axially growing systems. In particular, mRNA transcript degradation is not necessary for gradient formation; it is only necessary with localized proliferation for one special value of the initial concentration. Furthermore, the morphogen concentration decreases with distance away from the transcription zone, except in the case of localized proliferation with the initial concentration sufficiently large, when the concentration can either increase with distance from the transcription zone or sustain a local minimum. In both localized and uniformly distributed proliferation, in order for a concentration gradient to form across the whole domain, transcription must occur in a zone equal to the initial domain size; otherwise, it will only form across part of the tissue.

Colin Mathers and Ties Boerma discuss three research articles in PLoS Medicine that address the measurement and analysis of child and adult mortality data collected through death registration, censuses, and household surveys.

Background Precise regulation of the cell cycle is crucial to the growth and development of all organisms. Understanding the regulatory mechanism of the cell cycle is crucial to unraveling many complicated diseases, most notably cancer. Multiple sources of biological data are available to study the dynamic interactions among many genes that are related to the cancer cell cycle. Integrating these informative and complementary data sources can help to infer a mutually consistent gene transcriptional regulatory network with strong similarity to the underlying gene regulatory relationships in cancer cells. Results and Principal Findings We propose an integrative framework that infers gene regulatory modules from the cell cycle of cancer cells by incorporating multiple sources of biological data, including gene expression profiles, gene ontology, and molecular interaction. Among 846 human genes with putative roles in cell cycle regulation, we identified 46 transcription factors and 39 gene ontology groups. We reconstructed regulatory modules to infer the underlying regulatory relationships. Four regulatory network motifs were identified from the interaction network. The relationship between each transcription factor and predicted target gene groups was examined by training a recurrent neural network whose topology mimics the network motif(s) to which the transcription factor was assigned. Inferred network motifs related to eight well-known cell cycle genes were confirmed by gene set enrichment analysis, binding site enrichment analysis, and comparison with previously published experimental results. Conclusions We established a robust method that can accurately infer underlying relationships between a given transcription factor and its downstream target genes by integrating different layers of biological data. Our method could also be beneficial to biologists for predicting the components of regulatory modules in which any candidate gene is involved. Such predictions can then be used to design a more streamlined experimental approach for biological validation. Understanding the dynamics of these modules will shed light on the processes that occur in cancer cells resulting from errors in cell cycle regulation. Published version

BACKGROUND: High-density electroencephalography (hd-EEG) combined with transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) provides a direct and non-invasive measure of cortical excitability and connectivity in humans and may be employed to track over time pathological alterations, plastic changes and therapy-induced modifications in cortical circuits. However, the diagnostic/monitoring applications of this technique would be limited to the extent that TMS-evoked potentials are either stereotypical (non-sensitive) or random (non-repeatable) responses. Here, we used controlled changes in the stimulation parameters (site, intensity, and angle of stimulation) and repeated longitudinal measurements (same day and one week apart) to evaluate the sensitivity and repeatability of TMS/hd-EEG potentials. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In 10 volunteers, we performed 92 single-subject comparisons to evaluate the similarities/differences between pairs of TMS-evoked potentials recorded in the same/different stimulation conditions. For each pairwise comparison, we used non-parametric statistics to calculate a Divergence Index (DI), i.e., the percentage of samples that differed significantly, considering all scalp locations and the entire post-stimulus period. A receiver operating characteristic analysis showed that it was possible to find an optimal DI threshold of 1.67%, yielding 96.7% overall accuracy of TMS/hd-EEG in detecting whether a change in the perturbation parameters occurred or not. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These results demonstrate that the EEG responses to TMS essentially reflect deterministic properties of the stimulated neuronal circuits as opposed to stereotypical responses or uncontrolled variability. To the extent that TMS-evoked potentials are sensitive to changes and repeatable over time, they may be employed to detect longitudinal changes in the state of cortical circuits.

Retroviral recombination is thought to play an important role in the generation of immune escape and multiple drug resistance by shuffling pre-existing mutations in the viral population. Current estimates of HIV-1 recombination rates are derived from measurements within reporter gene sequences or genetically divergent HIV sequences. These measurements do not mimic the recombination occurring in vivo, between closely related genomes. Additionally, the methods used to measure recombination make a variety of assumptions about the underlying process, and often fail to account adequately for issues such as co-infection of cells or the possibility of multiple template switches between recombination sites. We have developed a HIV-1 marker system by making a small number of codon modifications in gag which allow recombination to be measured over various lengths between closely related viral genomes. We have developed statistical tools to measure recombination rates that can compensate for the possibility of multiple template switches. Our results show that when multiple template switches are ignored the error is substantial, particularly when recombination rates are high, or the genomic distance is large. We demonstrate that this system is applicable to other studies to accurately measure the recombination rate and show that recombination does not occur randomly within the HIV genome., Author Summary HIV's ability to generate and maintain high genetic diversity leads to multiple drug resistances and evasion from the immune system, eventually leading to immune failure and progression to AIDS. HIV maintains this diversity with a process of mutation (incorrect copying of genetic information in viral replication) and recombination (mixing two viral genomes in the creation of viral offspring). Recombination is generally studied by inserting genes encoding non-viral fluorescent proteins. However, recombination in such modified HIV genomes may not accurately reflect the level of recombination occurring within a patient infected with HIV. Additionally, recombination will go undetected in regions where the parental genomes are identical, and this effect is often ignored. We have developed a novel experimental system which allows recombination to be measured between two very closely related HIV genomes. We have also developed statistical tools to accurately calculate the recombination rate, compensating for undetectable recombination in identical regions of the parental genomes. We show that our experimental system bypasses some of the pitfalls of fluorescent recombination experiments and our tools provide a strong quantitative foundation for future studies in this area.

Background In temperate regions, influenza epidemics occur annually with the highest activity occurring during the winter months. While seasonal dynamics of the influenza virus, such as time of onset and circulating strains, are well documented by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Influenza Surveillance System, an accurate prediction of timing, magnitude, and composition of circulating strains of seasonal influenza remains elusive. To facilitate public health preparedness for seasonal influenza and to obtain better insights into the spatiotemporal behavior of emerging strains, it is important to develop measurable characteristics of seasonal oscillation and to quantify the relationships between those parameters on a spatial scale. The objectives of our research were to examine the seasonality of influenza on a national and state level as well as the relationship between peak timing and intensity of influenza in the United States older adult population. Methodology/Principal Findings A total of 248,889 hospitalization records were extracted from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services for the influenza seasons 1991–2004. Harmonic regression models were used to quantify the peak timing and absolute intensity for each of the 48 contiguous states and Washington, DC. We found that individual influenza seasons showed spatial synchrony with consistent late or early timing occurring across all 48 states during each influenza season in comparison to the overall average. On a national level, seasons that had an earlier peak also had higher rates of influenza (rs = −0.5). We demonstrated a spatial trend in peak timing of influenza; western states such as Nevada, Utah, and California peaked earlier and New England States such as Rhode Island, Maine, and New Hampshire peaked later. Conclusions/Significance Our findings suggest that a systematic description of influenza seasonal patterns is a valuable tool for disease surveillance and can facilitate strategies for prevention of severe disease in the vulnerable, older adult population.

Background We analyzed the association between 53 genes related to DNA repair and p53-mediated damage response and serous ovarian cancer risk using case-control data from the North Carolina Ovarian Cancer Study (NCOCS), a population-based, case-control study. Methods/Principal Findings The analysis was restricted to 364 invasive serous ovarian cancer cases and 761 controls of white, non-Hispanic race. Statistical analysis was two staged: a screen using marginal Bayes factors (BFs) for 484 SNPs and a modeling stage in which we calculated multivariate adjusted posterior probabilities of association for 77 SNPs that passed the screen. These probabilities were conditional on subject age at diagnosis/interview, batch, a DNA quality metric and genotypes of other SNPs and allowed for uncertainty in the genetic parameterizations of the SNPs and number of associated SNPs. Six SNPs had Bayes factors greater than 10 in favor of an association with invasive serous ovarian cancer. These included rs5762746 (median OR(odds ratio)per allele = 0.66; 95% credible interval (CI) = 0.44–1.00) and rs6005835 (median ORper allele = 0.69; 95% CI = 0.53–0.91) in CHEK2, rs2078486 (median ORper allele = 1.65; 95% CI = 1.21–2.25) and rs12951053 (median ORper allele = 1.65; 95% CI = 1.20–2.26) in TP53, rs411697 (median OR rare homozygote = 0.53; 95% CI = 0.35 – 0.79) in BACH1 and rs10131 (median OR rare homozygote = not estimable) in LIG4. The six most highly associated SNPs are either predicted to be functionally significant or are in LD with such a variant. The variants in TP53 were confirmed to be associated in a large follow-up study. Conclusions/Significance Based on our findings, further follow-up of the DNA repair and response pathways in a larger dataset is warranted to confirm these results.

The majority of expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) studies have been carried out in single tissues or cell types, using methods that ignore information shared across tissues. Although global analysis of RNA expression in multiple tissues is now feasible, few integrated statistical frameworks for joint analysis of gene expression across tissues combined with simultaneous analysis of multiple genetic variants have been developed to date. Here, we propose Sparse Bayesian Regression models for mapping eQTLs within individual tissues and simultaneously across tissues. Testing these on a set of 2,000 genes in four tissues, we demonstrate that our methods are more powerful than traditional approaches in revealing the true complexity of the eQTL landscape at the systems-level. Highlighting the power of our method, we identified a two-eQTL model (cis/trans) for the Hopx gene that was experimentally validated and was not detected by conventional approaches. We showed common genetic regulation of gene expression across four tissues for ∼27% of transcripts, providing >5 fold increase in eQTLs detection when compared with single tissue analyses at 5% FDR level. These findings provide a new opportunity to uncover complex genetic regulatory mechanisms controlling global gene expression while the generality of our modelling approach makes it adaptable to other model systems and humans, with broad application to analysis of multiple intermediate and whole-body phenotypes., Author Summary Integrated analysis of genome-wide genetic polymorphisms and gene expression profiles from different tissues or cell types has been highly successful in identifying genes modulating complex phenotypes in animal models and humans. However, an important limitation of the current approaches consists in their sole application to individual tissues, thus ignoring information shared across different tissues. To uncover complex genetic regulatory mechanisms controlling gene expression at the whole organism's level, it is essential to develop appropriate analytical methods for the analysis of genome-wide genetic polymorphisms and gene expression profiles simultaneously in multiple tissues. This paper presents a novel, fully integrated Bayesian approach for mapping the genetic components of gene expression within and across multiple tissues. In addition to increased power and enhanced mapping resolution when compared with traditional approaches, our model directly provides information on potential systemic effects on transcriptional profiles and co-existing local (cis) and distant (trans) genetic control of gene expression. We also discuss the possibility to extend our approach for the analysis of different phenotypes, and other study designs, thus providing an integrated computational tool to explore the genetic control underlying transcriptional regulation at the systems-level, beyond the single tissue resolution.

The common formula used for converting a chi-square test into a correlation coefficient for use as an effect size in meta-analysis has a hidden assumption which may be violated in specific instances, leading to an overestimation of the effect size. A corrected formula is provided.

Background: Zipf's law states that the relationship between the frequency of a word in a text and its rank (the most frequent word has rank , the 2nd most frequent word has rank ,…) is approximately linear when plotted on a double logarithmic scale. It has been argued that the law is not a relevant or useful property of language because simple random texts - constructed by concatenating random characters including blanks behaving as word delimiters - exhibit a Zipf's law-like word rank distribution. Methodology/Principal Findings: In this article, we examine the flaws of such putative good fits of random texts. We demonstrate - by means of three different statistical tests - that ranks derived from random texts and ranks derived from real texts are statistically inconsistent with the parameters employed to argue for such a good fit, even when the parameters are inferred from the target real text. Our findings are valid for both the simplest random texts composed of equally likely characters as well as more elaborate and realistic versions where character probabilities are borrowed from a real text. Conclusions/Significance: The good fit of random texts to real Zipf's law-like rank distributions has not yet been established. Therefore, we suggest that Zipf's law might in fact be a fundamental law in natural languages.

Early mathematical representations of infectious disease dynamics assumed a single, large, homogeneously mixing population. Over the past decade there has been growing interest in models consisting of multiple smaller subpopulations (households, workplaces, schools, communities), with the natural assumption of strong homogeneous mixing within each subpopulation, and weaker transmission between subpopulations. Here we consider a model of SIRS (susceptible-infectious-recovered-suscep​tible) infection dynamics in a very large (assumed infinite) population of households, with the simplifying assumption that each household is of the same size (although all methods may be extended to a population with a heterogeneous distribution of household sizes). For this households model we present efficient methods for studying several quantities of epidemiological interest: (i) the threshold for invasion; (ii) the early growth rate; (iii) the household offspring distribution; (iv) the endemic prevalence of infection; and (v) the transient dynamics of the process. We utilize these methods to explore a wide region of parameter space appropriate for human infectious diseases. We then extend these results to consider the effects of more realistic gamma-distributed infectious periods. We discuss how all these results differ from standard homogeneous-mixing models and assess the implications for the invasion, transmission and persistence of infection. The computational efficiency of the methodology presented here will hopefully aid in the parameterisation of structured models and in the evaluation of appropriate responses for future disease outbreaks.

Investigating differences between means of more than two groups or experimental conditions is a routine research question addressed in biology. In order to assess differences statistically, multiple comparison procedures are applied. The most prominent procedures of this type, the Dunnett and Tukey-Kramer test, control the probability of reporting at least one false positive result when the data are normally distributed and when the sample sizes and variances do not differ between groups. All three assumptions are non-realistic in biological research and any violation leads to an increased number of reported false positive results. Based on a general statistical framework for simultaneous inference and robust covariance estimators we propose a new statistical multiple comparison procedure for assessing multiple means. In contrast to the Dunnett or Tukey-Kramer tests, no assumptions regarding the distribution, sample sizes or variance homogeneity are necessary. The performance of the new procedure is assessed by means of its familywise error rate and power under different distributions. The practical merits are demonstrated by a reanalysis of fatty acid phenotypes of the bacterium Bacillus simplex from the "Evolution Canyons" I and II in Israel. The simulation results show that even under severely varying variances, the procedure controls the number of false positive findings very well. Thus, the here presented procedure works well under biologically realistic scenarios of unbalanced group sizes, non-normality and heteroscedasticity.

Background It is unclear whether dengue serotypes differ in their propensity to cause severe disease. We analyzed differences in serotype-specific disease severity in children presenting for medical attention in Bangkok, Thailand. Methodology/Principal Findings Prospective studies were conducted from 1994 to 2006. Univariate and multivariate logistic and multinomial logistic regressions were used to determine if dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) and signs of severe clinical disease (pleural effusion, ascites, thrombocytopenia, hemoconcentration) were associated with serotype. Crude and adjusted odds ratios were calculated. There were 162 (36%) cases with DENV-1, 102 (23%) with DENV-2, 123 (27%) with DENV-3, and 64 (14%) with DENV-4. There was no significant difference in the rates of DHF by serotype: DENV-2 (43%), DENV-3 (39%), DENV-1 (34%), DENV-4 (31%). DENV-2 was significantly associated with increased odds of DHF grade I compared to DF (OR 2.9 95% CI 1.1, 8.0), when using DENV-1 as the reference. Though not statistically significant, DENV-2 had an increased odds of total DHF and DHF grades II, III, and IV. Secondary serologic response was significantly associated with DHF (OR 6.2) and increased when considering more severe grades of DHF. DENV-2 (9%) and -4 (3%) were significantly less often associated with primary disease than DENV-1 (28%) and -3 (33%). Restricting analysis to secondary cases, we found DENV-2 and DENV-3 to be twice as likely to result in DHF as DEN-4 (p = 0.05). Comparing study years, we found the rate of DHF to be significantly less in 1999, 2000, 2004, and 2005 than in 1994, the study year with the highest percentage of DHF cases, even when controlling for other variables. Conclusions/Significance As in other studies, we find secondary disease to be strongly associated with DHF and with more severe grades of DHF. DENV-2 appears to be marginally associated with more severe dengue disease as evidenced by a significant association with DHF grade I when compared to DENV-1. In addition, we found non-significant trends with other grades of DHF. Restricting the analysis to secondary disease we found DENV-2 and -3 to be twice as likely to result in DHF as DEN-4. Differences in severity by study year may suggest that other factors besides serotype play a role in disease severity., Author Summary The four dengue viruses (DENV) represent the most common human arbovirus infections in the world and are currently a challenging problem, particularly in the tropical and subtropical regions of Asia and the Americas. Infection with DENV may produce symptoms of varying severity. While access to care, appropriate interventions, host genetic factors, and previous exposure to DENV are all known to affect the outcome of the infection, it is not entirely understood why some individuals develop more severe disease. It has been hypothesized that the four dengue serotypes differ in disease severity and clinical manifestations. This analysis assessed whether there were significant differences in severity of disease caused by the dengue serotypes in a pediatric population in Thailand. We found significant and non-significant correlations between dengue serotype 2 infection and more severe dengue disease. We also found that individual serotypes varied in disease severity between study years, perhaps supporting the hypothesis that the particular sequences of primary and secondary DENV infections influence disease severity.

Contemporary high dimensional biological assays, such as mRNA expression microarrays, regularly involve multiple data processing steps, such as experimental processing, computational processing, sample selection, or feature selection (i.e. gene selection), prior to deriving any biological conclusions. These steps can dramatically change the interpretation of an experiment. Evaluation of processing steps has received limited attention in the literature. It is not straightforward to evaluate different processing methods and investigators are often unsure of the best method. We present a simple statistical tool, Standardized WithIn class Sum of Squares (SWISS), that allows investigators to compare alternate data processing methods, such as different experimental methods, normalizations, or technologies, on a dataset in terms of how well they cluster a priori biological classes. SWISS uses Euclidean distance to determine which method does a better job of clustering the data elements based on a priori classifications. We apply SWISS to three different gene expression applications. The first application uses four different datasets to compare different experimental methods, normalizations, and gene sets. The second application, using data from the MicroArray Quality Control (MAQC) project, compares different microarray platforms. The third application compares different technologies: a single Agilent two-color microarray versus one lane of RNA-Seq. These applications give an indication of the variety of problems that SWISS can be helpful in solving. The SWISS analysis of one-color versus two-color microarrays provides investigators who use two-color arrays the opportunity to review their results in light of a single-channel analysis, with all of the associated benefits offered by this design. Analysis of the MACQ data shows differential intersite reproducibility by array platform. SWISS also shows that one lane of RNA-Seq clusters data by biological phenotypes as well as a single Agilent two-color microarray.

BACKGROUND: Culture remains the diagnostic gold standard for many bacterial infections, and the method against which other tests are often evaluated. Specificity of culture is 100% if the pathogenic organism is not found in healthy subjects, but the sensitivity of culture is more difficult to determine and may be low. Here, we apply Bayesian latent class models (LCMs) to data from patients with a single Gram-negative bacterial infection and define the true sensitivity of culture together with the impact of misclassification by culture on the reported accuracy of alternative diagnostic tests. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Data from published studies describing the application of five diagnostic tests (culture and four serological tests) to a patient cohort with suspected melioidosis were re-analysed using several Bayesian LCMs. Sensitivities, specificities, and positive and negative predictive values (PPVs and NPVs) were calculated. Of 320 patients with suspected melioidosis, 119 (37%) had culture confirmed melioidosis. Using the final model (Bayesian LCM with conditional dependence between serological tests), the sensitivity of culture was estimated to be 60.2%. Prediction accuracy of the final model was assessed using a classification tool to grade patients according to the likelihood of melioidosis, which indicated that an estimated disease prevalence of 61.6% was credible. Estimates of sensitivities, specificities, PPVs and NPVs of four serological tests were significantly different from previously published values in which culture was used as the gold standard. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Culture has low sensitivity and low NPV for the diagnosis of melioidosis and is an imperfect gold standard against which to evaluate alternative tests. Models should be used to support the evaluation of diagnostic tests with an imperfect gold standard. It is likely that the poor sensitivity/specificity of culture is not specific for melioidosis, but rather a generic problem for many bacterial and fungal infections.

The presence of self-organized criticality in biology is often evidenced by a power-law scaling of event size distributions, which can be measured by linear regression on logarithmic axes. We show here that such a procedure does not necessarily mean that the system exhibits self-organized criticality. We first provide an analysis of multisite local field potential (LFP) recordings of brain activity and show that event size distributions defined as negative LFP peaks can be close to power-law distributions. However, this result is not robust to change in detection threshold, or when tested using more rigorous statistical analyses such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Similar power-law scaling is observed for surrogate signals, suggesting that power-law scaling may be a generic property of thresholded stochastic processes. We next investigate this problem analytically, and show that, indeed, stochastic processes can produce spurious power-law scaling without the presence of underlying self-organized criticality. However, this power-law is only apparent in logarithmic representations, and does not survive more rigorous analysis such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The same analysis was also performed on an artificial network known to display self-organized criticality. In this case, both the graphical representations and the rigorous statistical analysis reveal with no ambiguity that the avalanche size is distributed as a power-law. We conclude that logarithmic representations can lead to spurious power-law scaling induced by the stochastic nature of the phenomenon. This apparent power-law scaling does not constitute a proof of self-organized criticality, which should be demonstrated by more stringent statistical tests., Comment: 14 pages, 10 figures; PLoS One, in press (2010)

BACKGROUND: Sharing of epidemiological and clinical data sets among researchers is poor at best, in detriment of science and community at large. The purpose of this paper is therefore to (1) describe a novel Web application designed to share information on study data sets focusing on epidemiological clinical research in a collaborative environment and (2) create a policy model placing this collaborative environment into the current scientific social context. METHODOLOGY: The Database of Databases application was developed based on feedback from epidemiologists and clinical researchers requiring a Web-based platform that would allow for sharing of information about epidemiological and clinical study data sets in a collaborative environment. This platform should ensure that researchers can modify the information. A Model-based predictions of number of publications and funding resulting from combinations of different policy implementation strategies (for metadata and data sharing) were generated using System Dynamics modeling. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The application allows researchers to easily upload information about clinical study data sets, which is searchable and modifiable by other users in a wiki environment. All modifications are filtered by the database principal investigator in order to maintain quality control. The application has been extensively tested and currently contains 130 clinical study data sets from the United States, Australia, China and Singapore. Model results indicated that any policy implementation would be better than the current strategy, that metadata sharing is better than data-sharing, and that combined policies achieve the best results in terms of publications. CONCLUSIONS: Based on our empirical observations and resulting model, the social network environment surrounding the application can assist epidemiologists and clinical researchers contribute and search for metadata in a collaborative environment, thus potentially facilitating collaboration efforts among research communities distributed around the globe.

The initial presentation of multifactor dimensionality reduction (MDR) featured cross-validation to mitigate over-fitting, computationally efficient searches of the epistatic model space, and variable construction with constructive induction to alleviate the curse of dimensionality. However, the method was unable to differentiate association signals arising from true interactions from those due to independent main effects at individual loci. This issue leads to problems in inference and interpretability for the results from MDR and the family-based compliment the MDR-pedigree disequilibrium test (PDT). A suggestion from previous work was to fit regression models post hoc to specifically evaluate the null hypothesis of no interaction for MDR or MDR-PDT models. We demonstrate with simulation that fitting a regression model on the same data as that analyzed by MDR or MDR-PDT is not a valid test of interaction. This is likely to be true for any other procedure that searches for models, and then performs an uncorrected test for interaction. We also show with simulation that when strong main effects are present and the null hypothesis of no interaction is true, that MDR and MDR-PDT reject at far greater than the nominal rate. We also provide a valid regression-based permutation test procedure that specifically tests the null hypothesis of no interaction, and does not reject the null when only main effects are present. The regression-based permutation test implemented here conducts a valid test of interaction after a search for multilocus models, and can be applied to any method that conducts a search to find a multilocus model representing an interaction.

Background Improved genetic resolution and availability of sequenced genomes have made positional cloning of moderate-effect QTL realistic in several systems, emphasizing the need for precise and accurate derivation of positional confidence intervals (CIs) for QTL. Support interval (SI) methods based on the shape of the QTL likelihood curve have proven adequate for standard interval mapping, but have not been shown to be appropriate for use with composite interval mapping (CIM), which is one of the most commonly used QTL mapping methods. Results Based on a non-parametric confidence interval (NPCI) method designed for use with the Haley-Knott regression method for mapping QTL, a CIM-specific method (CIM-NPCI) was developed to appropriately account for the selection of background markers during analysis of bootstrap-resampled data sets. Coverage probabilities and interval widths resulting from use of the NPCI, SI, and CIM-NPCI methods were compared in a series of simulations analyzed via CIM, wherein four genetic effects were simulated in chromosomal regions with distinct marker densities while heritability was fixed at 0.6 for a population of 200 isolines. CIM-NPCIs consistently capture the simulated QTL across these conditions while slightly narrower SIs and NPCIs fail at unacceptably high rates, especially in genomic regions where marker density is high, which is increasingly common for real studies. The effects of a known CIM bias toward locating QTL peaks at markers were also investigated for each marker density case. Evaluation of sub-simulations that varied according to the positions of simulated effects relative to the nearest markers showed that the CIM-NPCI method overcomes this bias, offering an explanation for the improved coverage probabilities when marker densities are high. Conclusions Extensive simulation studies herein demonstrate that the QTL confidence interval methods typically used to positionally evaluate CIM results can be dramatically improved by accounting for the procedural complexity of CIM via an empirical approach, CIM-NPCI. Confidence intervals are a critical measure of QTL utility, but have received inadequate treatment due to a perception that QTL mapping is not sufficiently precise for procedural improvements to matter. Technological advances will continue to challenge this assumption, creating even more need for the current improvement to be refined.

Stephen Lim and colleagues use several sources of data to estimate the changes in distribution of insecticide-treated bed nets across Africa between 2000 and 2008, and to analyze the link between development assistance and net coverage., Background Development assistance for health (DAH) targeted at malaria has risen exponentially over the last 10 years, with a large fraction of these resources directed toward the distribution of insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs). Identifying countries that have been successful in scaling up ITN coverage and understanding the role of DAH is critical for making progress in countries where coverage remains low. Sparse and inconsistent sources of data have prevented robust estimates of the coverage of ITNs over time. Methods and Principal Findings We combined data from manufacturer reports of ITN deliveries to countries, National Malaria Control Program (NMCP) reports of ITNs distributed to health facilities and operational partners, and household survey data using Bayesian inference on a deterministic compartmental model of ITN distribution. For 44 countries in Africa, we calculated (1) ITN ownership coverage, defined as the proportion of households that own at least one ITN, and (2) ITN use in children under 5 coverage, defined as the proportion of children under the age of 5 years who slept under an ITN. Using regression, we examined the relationship between cumulative DAH targeted at malaria between 2000 and 2008 and the change in national-level ITN coverage over the same time period. In 1999, assuming that all ITNs are owned and used in populations at risk of malaria, mean coverage of ITN ownership and use in children under 5 among populations at risk of malaria were 2.2% and 1.5%, respectively, and were uniformly low across all 44 countries. In 2003, coverage of ITN ownership and use in children under 5 was 5.1% (95% uncertainty interval 4.6% to 5.7%) and 3.7% (2.9% to 4.9%); in 2006 it was 17.5% (16.4% to 18.8%) and 12.9% (10.8% to 15.4%); and by 2008 it was 32.8% (31.4% to 34.4%) and 26.6% (22.3% to 30.9%), respectively. In 2008, four countries had ITN ownership coverage of 80% or greater; six countries were between 60% and 80%; nine countries were between 40% and 60%; 12 countries were between 20% and 40%; and 13 countries had coverage below 20%. Excluding four outlier countries, each US$1 per capita in malaria DAH was associated with a significant increase in ITN household coverage and ITN use in children under 5 coverage of 5.3 percentage points (3.7 to 6.9) and 4.6 percentage points (2.5 to 6.7), respectively. Conclusions Rapid increases in ITN coverage have occurred in some of the poorest countries, but coverage remains low in large populations at risk. DAH targeted at malaria can lead to improvements in ITN coverage; inadequate financing may be a reason for lack of progress in some countries. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary, Editors' Summary Background Malaria is a major global public-health problem. Nearly half of the world's population is at risk of this parasitic disease, which kills about one million people (mainly children living in sub-Saharan Africa) every year. Malaria is transmitted to people through the bites of infected night-flying mosquitoes. Soon after entering the human body, the parasite begins to replicate in red blood cells, bursting out every 2–3 days and infecting more red blood cells. The parasite's presence in the bloodstream causes malaria's characteristic fever and can cause fatal organ damage. Malaria can be prevented by controlling the mosquitoes that spread the parasite and by sleeping under insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) to avoid mosquito bites. In trials, ITN use reduced deaths in young children by about 20%. Consequently, the widespread provision of ITNs is a mainstay of the World Health Organization's efforts to control malaria and in 2005 the World Assembly agreed to a target of providing ITNs for 80% of the people at risk of malaria by 2010. Why Was This Study Done? Development assistance for health (DAH) targeted at malaria has increased considerably over the past decade. Much of this resource has been directed toward increasing ITN coverage, but has it been used effectively? To answer this question and to track progress toward universal ITN provision, reliable estimates of ITN coverage are critical. Most attempts to quantify ITN coverage have relied on single sources of data such as manufacturers' records of ITNs supplied to individual countries, National Malaria Control Program reports on ITN distribution, or household surveys of ITN use. Because each of these data sources has weaknesses, robust estimates of ITN coverage over time cannot be calculated from a single data source. In this study, the researchers combine data from these three sources to calculate ITN ownership coverage (the proportion of households owning at least one ITN) and ITN use in children under 5 coverage (the proportion of children under the age of 5 years sleeping under an ITN) for 44 African countries between 1999 and 2008. They also investigate the relationship between changes in ITN coverage and the cumulative DAH targeted for malaria for each country over this period. What Did the Researchers Do and Find? The researchers combined the three sources of data by applying a statistical method called Bayesian inference to a “deterministic compartmental model” of ITN distribution, a flow chart that represents ITN movement into and within countries. In 1999, the researchers estimate, ITN ownership and ITN use by young children were uniformly low across the 44 countries. On average, only 2.2% of households owned ITNs and only 1.5% of young children slept under bed nets. By 2008, 32.8% of households owned ITNs and 26.6% of young children slept under ITNs but there were now large differences in ITN coverage between countries. In four countries, 80% or more of households owned an ITN but in 13 countries (including Nigeria), ITN ownership was below 20%. Finally, the researchers used a statistical technique called regression to reveal that the estimated increase in national ITN coverage between 2000 and 2008 was strongly related to the cumulative national DAH targeted for malaria (calculated by identifying all the grants and loans provided for malaria control) over the same period. What Do These Findings Mean? The accuracy of these findings depends on the assumptions included in the model of ITN distribution and the quality of the data fed into it. Nevertheless, this systematic analysis provides new insights into the progress of ITN provision in Africa and a robust way to monitor future ITN coverage. Its findings show that several countries, even some very poor countries, have managed to scale up their ITN coverage from near zero to above 60%. However, because countries such as Nigeria that have large populations at risk of malaria continue to have low ITN coverage, Africa as a whole falls far short of the target of 80% ITN coverage by 2010. Finally, the clear relationship between the expansion of DAH targeted at malaria and increased ITN coverage suggests that inadequate funding may be responsible for the lack of progress in some countries and indicates that continued external financial assistance will be required to maintain the improvements in ITN coverage that have already been achieved. Additional Information Please access these Web sites via the online version of this summary at http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1000328. Further information is available on the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington Information is available from the World Health Organization on malaria (in several languages); the 2009 World Malaria Report provides details of the current global malaria situation The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention provide information on malaria and on insecticide-treated bed nets (in English and Spanish) Information is available from the Roll Back Malaria Partnership on its approach to the global control of malaria including fact sheets on malaria in Africa and on insecticide-treated bed nets (in English, French and Portuguese) MedlinePlus provides links to additional information on malaria (in English and Spanish)

Linkage disequilibrium (LD) is a major concern in many genetic studies because of the markedly increased density of SNP (Single Nucleotide Polymorphism) genotype markers. This dramatic increase in the number of SNPs may cause problems in statistical analyses, such as by introducing multiple comparisons in hypothesis testing and colinearity in logistic regression models, because of the presence of complex LD structures. Inferences must be made about the underlying genetic variation through the LD structure before applying statistical models to the data. Therefore, we introduced the textile plot to provide a visualization of LD to improve the analysis of the genetic variation present in multiple-SNP genotype data. The plot can accentuate LD by displaying specific geometrical shapes, and allowing for the underlying haplotype structure to be inferred without any haplotype-phasing algorithms. Application of this technique to simulated and real data sets illustrated the potential usefulness of the textile plot as an aid to the interpretation of LD in multiple-SNP genotype data. The initial results of LD mapping and haplotype analyses of disease genes are encouraging, indicating that the textile plot may be useful in disease association studies.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) may be biased by population stratification (PS). We conducted empirical quantification of the magnitude of PS among human populations and its impact on GWAS. Liver tissues were collected from 979, 59 and 49 Caucasian Americans (CA), African Americans (AA) and Hispanic Americans (HA), respectively, and genotyped using Illumina650Y (Ilmn650Y) arrays. RNA was also isolated and hybridized to Agilent whole-genome gene expression arrays. We propose a new method (i.e., hgdp-eigen) for detecting PS by projecting genotype vectors for each sample to the eigenvector space defined by the Human Genetic Diversity Panel (HGDP). Further, we conducted GWAS to map expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) for the approximately 40,000 liver gene expression traits monitored by the Agilent arrays. HGDP-eigen performed similarly to the conventional self-eigen methods in capturing PS. However, leveraging the HGDP offered a significant advantage in revealing the origins, directions and magnitude of PS. Adjusting for eigenvectors had minor impacts on eQTL detection rates in CA. In contrast, for AA and HA, adjustment dramatically reduced association findings. At an FDR = 10%, we identified 65 eQTLs in AA with the unadjusted analysis, but only 18 eQTLs after the eigenvector adjustment. Strikingly, 55 out of the 65 unadjusted AA eQTLs were validated in CA, indicating that the adjustment procedure significantly reduced GWAS power. A number of the 55 AA eQTLs validated in CA overlapped with published disease associated SNPs. For example, rs646776 and rs10903129 have previously been associated with lipid levels and coronary heart disease risk, however, the rs10903129 eQTL was missed in the eigenvector adjusted analysis.

Background: Many different simulation frameworks, in different topics, need to treat realistic datasets to initialize and calibrate the system. A precise reproduction of initial states is extremely important to obtain reliable forecast from the model. Methodology/Principal Findings: This paper proposes an algorithm to create an artificial population where individuals are described by their age, and are gathered in households respecting a variety of statistical constraints (distribution of household types, sizes, age of household head, difference of age between partners and among parents and children). Such a population is often the initial state of microsimulation or (agent) individual-based models. To get a realistic distribution of households is often very important, because this distribution has an impact on the demographic evolution. Usual techniques from microsimulation approach cross different sources of aggregated data for generating individuals. In our case the number of combinations of different households (types, sizes, age of participants) makes it computationally difficult to use directly such methods. Hence we developed a specific algorithm to make the problem more easily tractable. Conclusions/Significance: We generate the populations of two pilot municipalities in Auvergne region (France), to illustrate the approach. The generated populations show a good agreement with the available statistical datasets (not used for the generation) and are obtained in a reasonable computational time., 16 oages, 11 figures

In eukaryotes, the interphase nucleus is organized in morphologically and/or functionally distinct nuclear “compartments”. Numerous studies highlight functional relationships between the spatial organization of the nucleus and gene regulation. This raises the question of whether nuclear organization principles exist and, if so, whether they are identical in the animal and plant kingdoms. We addressed this issue through the investigation of the three-dimensional distribution of the centromeres and chromocenters. We investigated five very diverse populations of interphase nuclei at different differentiation stages in their physiological environment, belonging to rabbit embryos at the 8-cell and blastocyst stages, differentiated rabbit mammary epithelial cells during lactation, and differentiated cells of Arabidopsis thaliana plantlets. We developed new tools based on the processing of confocal images and a new statistical approach based on G- and F- distance functions used in spatial statistics. Our original computational scheme takes into account both size and shape variability by comparing, for each nucleus, the observed distribution against a reference distribution estimated by Monte-Carlo sampling over the same nucleus. This implicit normalization allowed similar data processing and extraction of rules in the five differentiated nuclei populations of the three studied biological systems, despite differences in chromosome number, genome organization and heterochromatin content. We showed that centromeres/chromocenters form significantly more regularly spaced patterns than expected under a completely random situation, suggesting that repulsive constraints or spatial inhomogeneities underlay the spatial organization of heterochromatic compartments. The proposed technique should be useful for identifying further spatial features in a wide range of cell types., Author Summary Several reports suggest functional relationships within the spatial organization of the nucleus, gene regulation and cell differentiation. However, it still remains difficult to extract common rules, mostly because i) most data have been gathered on limited sets of nuclear elements and in nuclei outside their normal physiological environment, and ii) few three-dimensional (3D) quantitative measures have been performed. Thus, we questioned whether common nuclear organization principles exist in the animal and plant kingdoms. For that purpose, we investigated the 3D distribution of centromeres/chromocenters in five populations of animal and plant nuclei: rabbit embryos at 8-cell and blastocyst stages, rabbit mammary gland epithelial cells and Arabidopsis thaliana plantlets. We set up adapted procedures to segment confocal images and developed a new analytical methodology based on distances between positions within the nucleus and centromeres/chromocenters. We showed that in all systems, despite large differences in chromosome number (44 in rabbit; 10 in A. thaliana) and genome size (rabbit estimated size 2.77 Gbp; A. thaliana 125 Mbp), centromeres/chromocenters form significantly more regularly spaced patterns than expected under a completely random situation. This suggests that, whatever their specific features, conserved rules govern the spatial distribution of genomes in nuclei of differentiated cells.

Identifying transcription factor (TF) binding sites (TFBSs) is an important step towards understanding transcriptional regulation. A common approach is to use gaplessly aligned, experimentally supported TFBSs for a particular TF, and algorithmically search for more occurrences of the same TFBSs. The largest publicly available databases of TF binding specificities contain models which are represented as position weight matrices (PWM). There are other methods using more sophisticated representations, but these have more limited databases, or aren't publicly available. Therefore, this paper focuses on methods that search using one PWM per TF. An algorithm, MATCHTM, for identifying TFBSs corresponding to a particular PWM is available, but is not based on a rigorous statistical model of TF binding, making it difficult to interpret or adjust the parameters and output of the algorithm. Furthermore, there is no public description of the algorithm sufficient to exactly reproduce it. Another algorithm, MAST, computes a p-value for the presence of a TFBS using true probabilities of finding each base at each offset from that position. We developed a statistical model, BaSeTraM, for the binding of TFs to TFBSs, taking into account random variation in the base present at each position within a TFBS. Treating the counts in the matrices and the sequences of sites as random variables, we combine this TFBS composition model with a background model to obtain a Bayesian classifier. We implemented our classifier in a package (SBaSeTraM). We tested SBaSeTraM against a MATCHTM implementation by searching all probes used in an experimental Saccharomyces cerevisiae TF binding dataset, and comparing our predictions to the data. We found no statistically significant differences in sensitivity between the algorithms (at fixed selectivity), indicating that SBaSeTraM's performance is at least comparable to the leading currently available algorithm. Our software is freely available at: http://wiki.github.com/A1kmm/sbasetram/building-the-tools.

Gene activation—the process of waking up a silent gene and transcribing its DNA—requires many coordinated processes: the gene must be exposed to transcription factors, which must then pile onto specialized sequences adjacent to the gene-called enhancer and promoter regions, which then attract RNA polymerase (the enzyme that catalyzes the synthesis of messenger RNA), which can then attach and prepare to read the gene's sequence. Within the nucleus, each chromosome sits in its own well-defined domain, called its territory. It has long been observed that activated genes relocate outside their chromosome's territory during expression, leading to the idea that this movement promotes activation by exposing the gene to the transcription machinery. But is the opposite true? Do genes that remain in their territories have less access to RNA polymerase? It had been thought so, but a new study by Carmelo Ferrai, Sheila Xie, Ana Pombo, Massimo P. Crippa, and colleagues shows that even while sitting quietly within their home turf, some genes are already primed with the transcriptional machinery, poised and ready to go. The authors used a model gene, urokinase-type plasminogen activator (uPA), which sits on Chromosome 10 and can be chemically induced to increase its expression (mimicking its natural activators, such as hormones). They start by showing that in their inactive state, most of the uPA genes within a population of cells sit within the Chromosome 10 territory, and, upon activation, the majority of them relocate to the outside and transcription goes up. This matches the standard model. But the authors asked whether this relocation was accompanied by changes in chromatin structure. This would be expected, since opening up the local structure (through changes to the histone proteins upon which DNA is spooled) would allow easier access of the transcription machinery. But, they found that even before the gene was chemically induced to turn on, the regulatory regions of the uPA gene were already open, and that the gene's promoter had already bound the RNA polymerase transcription complex (called a “transcription factory”). In short, the factories had easy access to the gene even when it was buried in the interior of the territory. RNA polymerase has two critical phosphorylation sites that control its activity, both involving the amino acid serine. In full-on transcription mode, both serine-2 and serine-5 are phosphorylated. When only ser-5 is phosphorylated, the polymerase is “poised,” inactive but ready to go. The authors found that before activation, most of the uPA genes within the Chromosome 10 territory bound poised polymerases. Once chemically activated, the gene preferentially bound the fully active polymerase, along with moving out of the territory. Surprisingly, the interior of the territory was also accessible to fully active polymerase, although there was little transcription there prior to activation. Finally, the authors measured the transcription frequency both inside and outside the territory after chemical activation. They found that after activation, the frequency with which uPA alleles are transcribed was the same whether the gene was inside or outside, again in contrast to the standard model. Before activation was a different story, though. Genes inside the territory were largely silent, while those few on the outside were transcribed at a rate equal to that of an active gene. The picture that emerges is both more complicated and more dynamic than the simple inside-quiet/outside-active model of gene activity. At least for this gene, and presumably for many others similarly regulated, the gene is routinely available for binding of transcription factories while still within its chromosome territory. While most of these are poised, rather than active, factories, some transcription does occur there. Upon activation, the gene does move outside its territory, but not to begin the process of accumulating the transcription machinery—this experiment conclusively shows that accumulation of the transcription machinery can and does occur independently and prior to activation. Instead, translocation to the exterior has no influence on the association of induced genes with active factories or a high level of transcription. It is in the uninduced state that the positioning at the CT interior has a silencing effect, The authors suggest that the ability of regulatable genes to be primed with transcription factories while still silent likely allows a more rapid response to environmental signals that turn the genes on. Ferrai C, Xie SQ, Luraghi P, Munari D, Ramirez F, et al. (2010) Poised Transcription Factories Prime Silent uPA Gene Prior to Activation. doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.1000270

Predicting protein structure from primary sequence is one of the ultimate challenges in computational biology. Given the large amount of available sequence data, the analysis of co-evolution, i.e., statistical dependency, between columns in multiple alignments of protein domain sequences remains one of the most promising avenues for predicting residues that are contacting in the structure. A key impediment to this approach is that strong statistical dependencies are also observed for many residue pairs that are distal in the structure. Using a comprehensive analysis of protein domains with available three-dimensional structures we show that co-evolving contacts very commonly form chains that percolate through the protein structure, inducing indirect statistical dependencies between many distal pairs of residues. We characterize the distributions of length and spatial distance traveled by these co-evolving contact chains and show that they explain a large fraction of observed statistical dependencies between structurally distal pairs. We adapt a recently developed Bayesian network model into a rigorous procedure for disentangling direct from indirect statistical dependencies, and we demonstrate that this method not only successfully accomplishes this task, but also allows contacts with weak statistical dependency to be detected. To illustrate how additional information can be incorporated into our method, we incorporate a phylogenetic correction, and we develop an informative prior that takes into account that the probability for a pair of residues to contact depends strongly on their primary-sequence distance and the amount of conservation that the corresponding columns in the multiple alignment exhibit. We show that our model including these extensions dramatically improves the accuracy of contact prediction from multiple sequence alignments., Author Summary Whenever two residues are in close contact in the structure of a protein, their interaction will often constrain which amino acid substitutions can occur without perturbing the functionality of the protein, leading to “co-evolution” of the residues. With the large amount of data currently available, deep multiple alignments can be constructed of protein sequences that likely fold into a common structure, and several methods have been proposed for predicting contacting residues from statistical dependencies exhibited by pairs of alignment columns. Unfortunately, strong statistical dependencies are also observed between many pairs of residues that are distal in the structure. Through a comprehensive analysis of 2009 protein domains, we show that a large fraction of these distal dependencies are indirect and result from chains of contacting pairs that percolate through the protein. We present a Bayesian network model that rigorously disentangles direct from indirect dependencies and show that this greatly improves contact prediction. Additionally, we develop an informative prior that takes into account that the probability for residues to be in contact depends on their primary sequence separation, and that highly conserved residues tend to participate in a larger number of contacts. With this prior, the accuracy of the contact predictions is dramatically improved.

Background Models of between-farm transmission of pathogens have identified service vehicles and social groups as risk factors mediating the spread of infection. Because of high levels of economic organization in much of the poultry industry, we examined the importance of company affiliation, as distinct from social contacts, in a model of the potential spread of avian influenza among broiler poultry farms in a poultry-dense region in the United States. The contribution of company affiliation to risk of between-farm disease transmission has not been previously studied. Methodology/Principal Findings We obtained data on the nature and frequency of business and social contacts through a national survey of broiler poultry growers in the United States. Daily rates of contact were estimated using Monte Carlo analysis. Stochastic modeling techniques were used to estimate the exposure risk posed by a single infectious farm to other farms in the region and relative risk of exposure for farms under different scenarios. The mean daily rate of vehicular contact was 0.82 vehicles/day. The magnitude of exposure risk ranged from

Recent technological developments in genetic screening approaches have offered the means to start exploring quantitative genotype-phenotype relationships on a large-scale. What remains unclear is the extent to which the quantitative genetic interaction datasets can distinguish the broad spectrum of interaction classes, as compared to existing information on mutation pairs associated with both positive and negative interactions, and whether the scoring of varying degrees of such epistatic effects could be improved by computational means. To address these questions, we introduce here a computational approach for improving the quantitative discrimination power encoded in the genetic interaction screening data. Our matrix approximation model decomposes the original double-mutant fitness matrix into separate components, representing variability across the array and query mutants, which can be utilized for estimating and correcting the single-mutant fitness effects, respectively. When applied to three large-scale quantitative interaction datasets in yeast, we could improve the accuracy of scoring various interaction classes beyond that obtained with the original fitness data, especially in synthetic genetic array (SGA) and in genetic interaction mapping (GIM) datasets. In addition to the known pairs of interactions used in the evaluation of the computational approach, a number of novel interaction pairs were also predicted, along with underlying biological mechanisms, which remained undetected by the original datasets. It was shown that the optimal choice of the scoring function depends heavily on the screening approach and on the interaction class under analysis. Moreover, a simple preprocessing of the fitness matrix could further enhance the discrimination power of the epistatic miniarray profiling (E-MAP) dataset. These systematic evaluation results provide in-depth information on the optimal analysis of the future, large-scale screening experiments. In general, the modeling framework, enabling accurate identification and classification of genetic interactions, provides a solid basis for completing and mining the genetic interaction networks in yeast and other organisms.

BACKGROUND: Neonatal mortality contributes a large proportion towards early childhood mortality in developing countries, with considerable geographical variation at small areas within countries. METHODS: A geo-additive logistic regression model is proposed for quantifying small-scale geographical variation in neonatal mortality, and to estimate risk factors of neonatal mortality. Random effects are introduced to capture spatial correlation and heterogeneity. The spatial correlation can be modelled using the Markov random fields (MRF) when data is aggregated, while the two dimensional P-splines apply when exact locations are available, whereas the unstructured spatial effects are assigned an independent Gaussian prior. Socio-economic and bio-demographic factors which may affect the risk of neonatal mortality are simultaneously estimated as fixed effects and as nonlinear effects for continuous covariates. The smooth effects of continuous covariates are modelled by second-order random walk priors. Modelling and inference use the empirical Bayesian approach via penalized likelihood technique. The methodology is applied to analyse the likelihood of neonatal deaths, using data from the 2000 Malawi demographic and health survey. The spatial effects are quantified through MRF and two dimensional P-splines priors. RESULTS: Findings indicate that both fixed and spatial effects are associated with neonatal mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Our study, therefore, suggests that the challenge to reduce neonatal mortality goes beyond addressing individual factors, but also require to understanding unmeasured covariates for potential effective interventions.

International audience; Central carbon metabolism (CCM) is a fundamental component of life. The participating genes and enzymes are thought to be structurally and functionally conserved across and within species. Association mapping utilizes a rich history of mutation and recombination to achieve high resolution mapping. Therefore, applying association mapping in maize (Zea mays ssp. mays), the most diverse model crop species, to study the genetics of CCM is a particularly attractive system. Methodology/Principal Findings We used a maize diversity panel to test the CCM functional conservation. We found heritable variation in enzyme activity for every enzyme tested. One of these enzymes was the NAD-dependent isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH, E.C. 1.1.1.41), in which we identified a novel amino-acid substitution in a phylogenetically conserved site. Using candidate gene association mapping, we identified that this non-synonymous polymorphism was associated with IDH activity variation. The proposed mechanism for the IDH activity variation includes additional components regulating protein level. With the comparison of sequences from maize and teosinte (Zea mays ssp. Parviglumis), the maize wild ancestor, we found that some CCM genes had also been targeted for selection during maize domestication. Conclusions/Significance Our results demonstrate the efficacy of association mapping for dissecting natural variation in primary metabolic pathways. The considerable genetic diversity observed in maize CCM genes underlies heritable phenotypic variation in enzyme activities and can be useful to identify putative functional sites.

In host and cancer tissues, drug metabolism and susceptibility to drugs vary in a circadian (24 h) manner. In particular, the efficacy of a cell cycle specific (CCS) cytotoxic agent is affected by the daily modulation of cell cycle activity in the target tissues. Anti-cancer chronotherapy, in which treatments are administered at a particular time each day, aims at exploiting these biological rhythms to reduce toxicity and improve efficacy of the treatment. The circadian status, which is the timing of physiological and behavioral activity relative to daily environmental cues, largely determines the best timing of treatments. However, the influence of variations in tumor kinetics has not been considered in determining appropriate treatment schedules. We used a simple model for cell populations under chronomodulated treatment to identify which biological parameters are important for the successful design of a chronotherapy strategy. We show that the duration of the phase of the cell cycle targeted by the treatment and the cell proliferation rate are crucial in determining the best times to administer CCS drugs. Thus, optimal treatment times depend not only on the circadian status of the patient but also on the cell cycle kinetics of the tumor. Then, we developed a theoretical analysis of treatment outcome (TATO) to relate the circadian status and cell cycle kinetic parameters to the treatment outcomes. We show that the best and the worst CCS drug administration schedules are those with 24 h intervals, implying that 24 h chronomodulated treatments can be ineffective or even harmful if administered at wrong circadian times. We show that for certain tumors, administration times at intervals different from 24 h may reduce these risks without compromising overall efficacy., Author Summary Chronotherapy of cancers aims at exploiting daily physiological rhythms to improve anti-cancer efficacy and tolerance to drugs by administering treatments at a specific time of the day. Recent clinical trials have shown that chronotherapy can be beneficial in improving quality of life and median life span in patients, but that it can also have negative effects if the timing is wrong. A theoretical basis for the rational development of individualized therapy schedules is still lacking. Here, we use a simple cell population model to show how biological rhythms and the cell cycle interact to modulate the response to cancer therapy. In particular, we show that the proliferation rate of cancer cells determines when treatments are most effective. We provide a simple formulation of the problem that can be used to compute an objective response function based on the drug sensitivity and the proliferation rate of tumor cells. Finally, we show that in some cases, treating at a different time every day may be more appropriate than standard daily chronotherapy. These results constitute an important step in designing individualized chronotherapy treatments, and point out to ways to design better clinical trials.

Correlated amino acid substitution algorithms attempt to discover groups of residues that co-fluctuate due to either structural or functional constraints. Although these algorithms could inform both ab initio protein folding calculations and evolutionary studies, their utility for these purposes has been hindered by a lack of confidence in their predictions due to hard to control sources of error. To complicate matters further, naive users are confronted with a multitude of methods to choose from, in addition to the mechanics of assembling and pruning a dataset. We first introduce a new pair scoring method, called ZNMI (Z-scored-product Normalized Mutual Information), which drastically improves the performance of mutual information for co-fluctuating residue prediction. Second and more important, we recast the process of finding coevolving residues in proteins as a data-processing pipeline inspired by the medical imaging literature. We construct an ensemble of alignment partitions that can be used in a cross-validation scheme to assess the effects of choices made during the procedure on the resulting predictions. This pipeline sensitivity study gives a measure of reproducibility (how similar are the predictions given perturbations to the pipeline?) and accuracy (are residue pairs with large couplings on average close in tertiary structure?). We choose a handful of published methods, along with ZNMI, and compare their reproducibility and accuracy on three diverse protein families. We find that (i) of the algorithms tested, while none appear to be both highly reproducible and accurate, ZNMI is one of the most accurate by far and (ii) while users should be wary of predictions drawn from a single alignment, considering an ensemble of sub-alignments can help to determine both highly accurate and reproducible couplings. Our cross-validation approach should be of interest both to developers and end users of algorithms that try to detect correlated amino acid substitutions.

Inference of protein functions is one of the most important aims of modern biology. To fully exploit the large volumes of genomic data typically produced in modern-day genomic experiments, automated computational methods for protein function prediction are urgently needed. Established methods use sequence or structure similarity to infer functions but those types of data do not suffice to determine the biological context in which proteins act. Current high-throughput biological experiments produce large amounts of data on the interactions between proteins. Such data can be used to infer interaction networks and to predict the biological process that the protein is involved in. Here, we develop a probabilistic approach for protein function prediction using network data, such as protein-protein interaction measurements. We take a Bayesian approach to an existing Markov Random Field method by performing simultaneous estimation of the model parameters and prediction of protein functions. We use an adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm that leads to more accurate parameter estimates and consequently to improved prediction performance compared to the standard Markov Random Fields method. We tested our method using a high quality S. cereviciae validation network with 1622 proteins against 90 Gene Ontology terms of different levels of abstraction. Compared to three other protein function prediction methods, our approach shows very good prediction performance. Our method can be directly applied to protein-protein interaction or coexpression networks, but also can be extended to use multiple data sources. We apply our method to physical protein interaction data from S. cerevisiae and provide novel predictions, using 340 Gene Ontology terms, for 1170 unannotated proteins and we evaluate the predictions using the available literature.

Background: The recent advent of high-throughput SNP genotyping technologies has opened new avenues of research for population genetics. In particular, a growing interest in the identification of footprints of selection, based on genome scans for adaptive differentiation, has emerged.[br/] Methodology/Principal Findings: The purpose of this study is to develop an efficient model-based approach to perform Bayesian exploratory analyses for adaptive differentiation in very large SNP data sets. The basic idea is to start with a very simple model for neutral loci that is easy to implement under a Bayesian framework and to identify selected loci as outliers via Posterior Predictive P-values (PPP-values). Applications of this strategy are considered using two different statistical models. The first one was initially interpreted in the context of populations evolving respectively under pure genetic drift from a common ancestral population while the second one relies on populations under migration-drift equilibrium. Robustness and power of the two resulting Bayesian model-based approaches to detect SNP under selection are further evaluated through extensive simulations. An application to a cattle data set is also provided.[br/] Conclusions/Significance: The procedure described turns out to be much faster than former Bayesian approaches and also reasonably efficient especially to detect loci under positive selection.

Background Epistasis, i.e., the interaction of alleles at different loci, is thought to play a central role in the formation and progression of complex diseases. The complexity of disease expression should arise from a complex network of epistatic interactions involving multiple genes. Methodology We develop a general model for testing high-order epistatic interactions for a complex disease in a case-control study. We incorporate the quantitative genetic theory of high-order epistasis into the setting of cases and controls sampled from a natural population. The new model allows the identification and testing of epistasis and its various genetic components. Conclusions Simulation studies were used to examine the power and false positive rates of the model under different sampling strategies. The model was used to detect epistasis in a case-control study of inflammatory bowel disease, in which five SNPs at a candidate gene were typed, leading to the identification of a significant three-locus epistasis.

Signaling pathways mediate the effect of external stimuli on gene expression in cells. The signaling proteins in these pathways interact with each other and their phosphorylation levels often serve as indicators for the activity of signaling pathways. Several signaling pathways have been identified in mammalian cells but the crosstalk between them is not well understood. Alliance for Cellular Signaling (AfCS) has measured time-course data in RAW 264.7 macrophage cells on important phosphoproteins, such as the mitogen-activated protein kinases (MAPKs) and signal transducer and activator of transcription (STATs), in single- and double-ligand stimulation experiments for 22 ligands. In the present work, we have used a data-driven approach to analyze the AfCS data to decipher the interactions and crosstalk between signaling pathways in stimulated macrophage cells. We have used dynamic mapping to develop a predictive model using a partial least squares approach. Significant interactions were selected through statistical hypothesis testing and were used to reconstruct the phosphoprotein signaling network. The proposed data-driven approach is able to identify most of the known signaling interactions such as protein kinase B (Akt) → glycogen synthase kinase 3α/β (GSKα/β) etc., and predicts potential novel interactions such as P38 → RSK and GSK → ezrin/radixin/moesin. We have also shown that the model has good predictive power for extrapolation. Our novel approach captures the temporal causality and directionality in intracellular signaling pathways. Further, case specific analysis of the phosphoproteins in the network has led us to propose hypothesis about inhibition (phosphorylation) of GSKα/β via P38., Author Summary Cellular systems are dynamic in nature, perform various biological functions and can adapt to their environment through compositional and structural remodeling. This remodeling is initiated by the binding of external ligands to receptor proteins on the cell surface or other stimuli resulting in the activation of various signaling pathways. The activation of signaling pathways in turn results in altered gene-expression which leads to changes in the molecular composition both inside and outside the cell. Thus, a thorough study of the complex interconnectivity of signaling pathways using dynamic data is necessary to understand the biological function and environmental adaptation. Protein phosphorylation is a key event in the activation of signaling pathways. We have developed an advanced computational approach to decipher the connections between different signaling pathways using time-resolved phosphoprotein data provided by the Alliance for Cellular Signaling. Important signaling events such as activation of glycogen synthase kinase 3 by protein kinase B (Akt) are captured by our reconstructed network. Novel links as well as testable hypotheses are also generated by our analysis approach.

Many methods, including parametric, nonparametric, and Bayesian methods, have been used for detecting differentially expressed genes based on the assumption that biological systems are linear, which ignores the nonlinear characteristics of most biological systems. More importantly, those methods do not simultaneously consider means, variances, and high moments, resulting in relatively high false positive rate. To overcome the limitations, the SWang test is proposed to determine differentially expressed genes according to the equality of distributions between case and control. Our method not only latently incorporates functional relationships among genes to consider nonlinear biological system but also considers the mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis of expression profiles simultaneously. To illustrate biological significance of high moments, we construct a nonlinear gene interaction model, demonstrating that skewness and kurtosis could contain useful information of function association among genes in microarrays. Simulations and real microarray results show that false positive rate of SWang is lower than currently popular methods (T-test, F-test, SAM, and Fold-change) with much higher statistical power. Additionally, SWang can uniquely detect significant genes in real microarray data with imperceptible differential expression but higher variety in kurtosis and skewness. Those identified genes were confirmed with previous published literature or RT-PCR experiments performed in our lab.

Remotely sensed tracking technology has revealed remarkable migration patterns that were previously unknown; however, models to optimally use such data have developed more slowly. Here, we present a hierarchical Bayes state-space framework that allows us to combine tracking data from a collection of animals and make inferences at both individual and broader levels. We formulate models that allow the navigation ability of animals to be estimated and demonstrate how information can be combined over many animals to allow improved estimation. We also show how formal hypothesis testing regarding navigation ability can easily be accomplished in this framework. Using Argos satellite tracking data from 14 leatherback turtles, 7 males and 7 females, during their southward migration from Nova Scotia, Canada, we find that the circle of confusion (the radius around an animal's location within which it is unable to determine its location precisely) is approximately 96 km. This estimate suggests that the turtles' navigation does not need to be highly accurate, especially if they are able to use more reliable cues as they near their destination. Moreover, for the 14 turtles examined, there is little evidence to suggest that male and female navigation abilities differ. Because of the minimal assumptions made about the movement process, our approach can be used to estimate and compare navigation ability for many migratory species that are able to carry electronic tracking devices.

BACKGROUND: Reporting of influenza-like illness (ILI) from general practice/family doctor (GPFD) clinics is an accurate indicator of real-time epidemic activity and requires little effort to set up, making it suitable for developing countries currently experiencing the influenza A (H1N1-2009) pandemic or preparing for subsequent epidemic waves. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We established a network of GPFDs in Singapore. Participating GPFDs submitted returns via facsimile or e-mail on their work days using a simple, standard data collection format, capturing: gender; year of birth; "ethnicity"; residential status; body temperature (degrees C); and treatment (antiviral or not); for all cases with a clinical diagnosis of an acute respiratory illness (ARI). The operational definition of ILI in this study was an ARI with fever of 37.8 degrees C or more. The data were processed daily by the study co-ordinator and fed into a stochastic model of disease dynamics, which was refitted daily using particle filtering, with data and forecasts uploaded to a website which could be publicly accessed. Twenty-three GPFD clinics agreed to participate. Data collection started on 2009-06-26 and lasted for the duration of the epidemic. The epidemic appeared to have peaked around 2009-08-03 and the ILI rates had returned to baseline levels by the time of writing. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This real-time surveillance system is able to show the progress of an epidemic and indicates when the peak is reached. The resulting information can be used to form forecasts, including how soon the epidemic wave will end and when a second wave will appear if at all.

Background: The indirect comparison of two interventions can be valuable in many situations. However, the quality of an indirect comparison will depend on several factors including the chosen methodology and validity of underlying assumptions. Published indirect comparisons are increasingly more common in the medical literature, but as yet, there are no published recommendations of how they should be reported. Our aim is to systematically review the quality of published indirect comparisons to add to existing empirical data suggesting that improvements can be made when reporting and applying indirect comparisons. Methodology/Findings: Reviews applying statistical methods to indirectly compare the clinical effectiveness of two interventions using randomised controlled trials were eligible. We searched (1966–2008) Database of Abstracts and Reviews of Effects, The Cochrane library, and Medline. Full review publications were assessed for eligibility. Specific criteria to assess quality were developed and applied. Forty-three reviews were included. Adequate methodology was used to calculate the indirect comparison in 41 reviews. Nineteen reviews assessed the similarity assumption using sensitivity analysis, subgroup analysis, or meta-regression. Eleven reviews compared trial-level characteristics. Twenty-four reviews assessed statistical homogeneity. Twelve reviews investigated causes of heterogeneity. Seventeen reviews included direct and indirect evidence for the same comparison; six reviews assessed consistency. One review combined both evidence types. Twentyfive reviews urged caution in interpretation of results, and 24 reviews indicated when results were from indirect evidence by stating this term with the result. Conclusions: This review shows that the underlying assumptions are not routinely explored or reported when undertaking indirect comparisons. We recommend, therefore, that the quality of indirect comparisons should be improved, in particular, by assessing assumptions and reporting the assessment methods applied. We propose that the quality criteria applied in this article may provide a basis to help review authors carry out indirect comparisons and to aid appropriate interpretation.

Background Obesity is unanimously regarded as a global epidemic and a major contributing factor to the development of many common illnesses. Laparoscopic Adjustable Gastric Banding (LAGB) is one of the most popular surgical approaches worldwide. Yet, substantial variability in the results and significant rate of failure can be expected, and it is still debated which categories of patients are better suited to this type of bariatric procedure. The aim of this study was to build a statistical model based on both psychological and physical data to predict weight loss in obese patients treated by LAGB, and to provide a valuable instrument for the selection of patients that may benefit from this procedure. Methodology/Principal Findings The study population consisted of 172 obese women, with a mean±SD presurgical and postsurgical Body Mass Index (BMI) of 42.5±5.1 and 32.4±4.8 kg/m2, respectively. Subjects were administered the comprehensive test of psychopathology Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-2 (MMPI-2). Main goal of the study was to use presurgical data to predict individual therapeutical outcome in terms of Excess Weight Loss (EWL) after 2 years. Multiple linear regression analysis using the MMPI-2 scores, BMI and age was performed to determine the variables that best predicted the EWL. Based on the selected variables including age, and 3 psychometric scales, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) were employed to improve the goodness of prediction. Linear and non linear models were compared in their classification and prediction tasks: non linear model resulted to be better at data fitting (36% vs. 10% variance explained, respectively) and provided more reliable parameters for accuracy and mis-classification rates (70% and 30% vs. 66% and 34%, respectively). Conclusions/Significance ANN models can be successfully applied for prediction of weight loss in obese women treated by LAGB. This approach may constitute a valuable tool for selection of the best candidates for surgery, taking advantage of an integrated multidisciplinary approach.

Background We consider the problem of optimizing a liposomal drug formulation: a complex chemical system with many components (e.g., elements of a lipid library) that interact nonlinearly and synergistically in ways that cannot be predicted from first principles. Methodology/Principal Findings The optimization criterion in our experiments was the percent encapsulation of a target drug, Amphotericin B, detected experimentally via spectrophotometric assay. Optimization of such a complex system requires strategies that efficiently discover solutions in extremely large volumes of potential experimental space. We have designed and implemented a new strategy of evolutionary design of experiments (Evo-DoE), that efficiently explores high-dimensional spaces by coupling the power of computer and statistical modeling with experimentally measured responses in an iterative loop. Conclusions We demonstrate how iterative looping of modeling and experimentation can quickly produce new discoveries with significantly better experimental response, and how such looping can discover the chemical landscape underlying complex chemical systems.

In this paper we outline general considerations on parameter identifiability, and introduce the notion of weak local identifiability and gradient weak local identifiability. These are based on local properties of the likelihood, in particular the rank of the Hessian matrix. We relate these to the notions of parameter identifiability and redundancy previously introduced by Rothenberg (Econometrica 39 (1971) 577-591) and Catchpole and Morgan (Biometrika 84 (1997) 187-196). Within the exponential family parameter irredundancy, local identifiability, gradient weak local identifiability and weak local identifiability are shown to be equivalent. We consider applications to a recently developed class of cancer models of Little and Wright (Math Biosciences 183 (2003) 111-134) and Little et al. (J Theoret Biol 254 (2008) 229-238) that generalize a large number of other recently used quasi-biological cancer models, in particular those of Armitage and Doll (Br J Cancer 8 (1954) 1-12) and the two-mutation model (Moolgavkar and Venzon Math Biosciences 47 (1979) 55-77)., This is now exactly as per the version of the article published in Little et al. (PLoS ONE 2010 5 (1)e8915)

The re-emergence of tuberculosis (TB) in the mid-1980s in many parts of the world, including the United States, is often attributed to the emergence and rapid spread of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). Although it is well established that TB transmission is particularly amplified in populations with high HIV prevalence, the epidemiology of interaction between TB and HIV is not well understood. This is partly due to the scarcity of HIV-related data, a consequence of the voluntary nature of HIV status reporting and testing, and partly due to current practices of screening high risk populations through separate surveillance programs for HIV and TB. The San Francisco Department of Public Health, TB Control Program, has been conducting active surveillance among the San Francisco high-risk populations since the early 1990s. We present extensive TB surveillance data on HIV and TB infection among the San Francisco homeless to investigate the association between the TB cases and their HIV+ contacts. We applied wavelet coherence and phase analyses to the TB surveillance data from January 1993 through December 2005, to establish and quantify statistical association and synchrony in the highly non-stationary and ostensibly non-periodic waves of TB cases and their HIV+ contacts in San Francisco. When stratified by homelessness, we found that the evolution of TB cases and their HIV+ contacts is highly coherent over time and locked in phase at a specific periodic scale among the San Francisco homeless, but no significant association was observed for the non-homeless. This study confirms the hypothesis that the dynamics of HIV and TB are significantly intertwined and that HIV is likely a key factor in the sustenance of TB transmission among the San Francisco homeless. The findings of this study underscore the importance of contact tracing in detection of HIV+ individuals that may otherwise remain undetected, and thus highlights the ever-increasing need for HIV-related data and an integrative approach to monitoring high-risk populations with respect to HIV and TB transmission., Mitre Corporation

[Background] In contrast to Newton's well-known aphorism that he had been able “to see further only by standing on the shoulders of giants,” one attributes to the Spanish philosopher Ortega y Gasset the hypothesis saying that top-level research cannot be successful without a mass of medium researchers on which the top rests comparable to an iceberg. [Methodology/Principal Findings] The Ortega hypothesis predicts that highly-cited papers and medium-cited (or lowly-cited) papers would equally refer to papers with a medium impact. The Newton hypothesis would be supported if the top-level research more frequently cites previously highly-cited work than that medium-level research cites highly-cited work. Our analysis is based on (i) all articles and proceedings papers which were published in 2003 in the life sciences, health sciences, physical sciences, and social sciences, and (ii) all articles and proceeding papers which were cited within these publications. The results show that highly-cited work in all scientific fields more frequently cites previously highly-cited papers than that medium-cited work cites highly-cited work. [Conclusions/Significance] We demonstrate that papers contributing to the scientific progress in a field lean to a larger extent on previously important contributions than papers contributing little. These findings support the Newton hypothesis and call into question the Ortega hypothesis (given our usage of citation counts as a proxy for impact).

Background Dengue infection spread in naive populations occurs in an explosive and widespread fashion primarily due to the absence of population herd immunity, the population dynamics and dispersal of Ae. aegypti, and the movement of individuals within the urban space. Knowledge on the relative contribution of such factors to the spatial dimension of dengue virus spread has been limited. In the present study we analyzed the spatio-temporal pattern of a large dengue virus-2 (DENV-2) outbreak that affected the Australian city of Cairns (north Queensland) in 2003, quantified the relationship between dengue transmission and distance to the epidemic's index case (IC), evaluated the effects of indoor residual spraying (IRS) on the odds of dengue infection, and generated recommendations for city-wide dengue surveillance and control. Methods and Findings We retrospectively analyzed data from 383 DENV-2 confirmed cases and 1,163 IRS applications performed during the 25-week epidemic period. Spatial (local k-function, angular wavelets) and space-time (Knox test) analyses quantified the intensity and directionality of clustering of dengue cases, whereas a semi-parametric Bayesian space-time regression assessed the impact of IRS and spatial autocorrelation in the odds of weekly dengue infection. About 63% of the cases clustered up to 800 m around the IC's house. Most cases were distributed in the NW-SE axis as a consequence of the spatial arrangement of blocks within the city and, possibly, the prevailing winds. Space-time analysis showed that DENV-2 infection spread rapidly, generating 18 clusters (comprising 65% of all cases), and that these clusters varied in extent as a function of their distance to the IC's residence. IRS applications had a significant protective effect in the further occurrence of dengue cases, but only when they reached coverage of 60% or more of the neighboring premises of a house. Conclusion By applying sound statistical analysis to a very detailed dataset from one of the largest outbreaks that affected the city of Cairns in recent times, we not only described the spread of dengue virus with high detail but also quantified the spatio-temporal dimension of dengue virus transmission within this complex urban environment. In areas susceptible to non-periodic dengue epidemics, effective disease prevention and control would depend on the prompt response to introduced cases. We foresee that some of the results and recommendations derived from our study may also be applicable to other areas currently affected or potentially subject to dengue epidemics., Author Summary Global trends in population growth and human redistribution and movement have reshaped the map of dengue transmission risk, exposing a significant proportion of the world's population to the threat of dengue epidemics. Knowledge on the relative contribution of vector and human movement to the widespread and explosive nature of dengue epidemic spread within an urban environment is limited. By analyzing a very detailed dataset of a dengue epidemic that affected the Australian city of Cairns we performed a comprehensive quantification of the spatio-temporal dimensions of dengue virus epidemic transmission and propagation within a complex urban environment. Space and space-time analysis and models allowed derivation of detailed information on the pattern of introduction and epidemic spread of dengue infection within the urban space. We foresee that some of the results and recommendations derived from our study may also be applicable to many other areas currently affected or potentially subject to dengue epidemics.

During infection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), immune pressure from cytotoxic T-lymphocytes (CTLs) selects for viral mutants that confer escape from CTL recognition. These escape variants can be transmitted between individuals where, depending upon their cost to viral fitness and the CTL responses made by the recipient, they may revert. The rates of within-host evolution and their concordant impact upon the rate of spread of escape mutants at the population level are uncertain. Here we present a mathematical model of within-host evolution of escape mutants, transmission of these variants between hosts and subsequent reversion in new hosts. The model is an extension of the well-known SI model of disease transmission and includes three further parameters that describe host immunogenetic heterogeneity and rates of within host viral evolution. We use the model to explain why some escape mutants appear to have stable prevalence whilst others are spreading through the population. Further, we use it to compare diverse datasets on CTL escape, highlighting where different sources agree or disagree on within-host evolutionary rates. The several dozen CTL epitopes we survey from HIV-1 gag, RT and nef reveal a relatively sedate rate of evolution with average rates of escape measured in years and reversion in decades. For many epitopes in HIV, occasional rapid within-host evolution is not reflected in fast evolution at the population level., Author Summary HIV evolves so quickly that it can be seen to adapt within one infected person. Evolutionary escape from immunity is particularly well-described. Escape variants transmit to new hosts, where they may revert. We present a mathematical model of three processes: within-host evolution of escape mutants, transmission of those variants between hosts and subsequent reversion in new hosts. Using this model we reconcile diverse datasets on HIV immune escape, highlighting where multiple data sources agree or disagree on the underlying rate processes. The several-dozen immune epitopes we survey reveal a relatively sedate rate of evolution with average rates of escape measured in years and reversion in decades. Although there are frequent reports in the literature of early and rapid within-host evolution of HIV, for many epitopes this is not reflected in fast evolution at the population level.