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This is the second in a series of seven articles The secretary of state is due to announce the results of an inquiry into beds in England. This review seems to have been in response to a perception that hospitals were experiencing increased difficulty in coping with emergency pressures and that the reduction in beds had gone too far—a fact apparently supported by a plateauing in the downward trend in the number of beds. The hospital sector, especially in the NHS, has long been a focus from all sides for rhetoric and emotive political appeals. In terms of numbers of both hospitals and beds, the NHS has been shrinking for most of its life. The bed stock of NHS in England peaked in 1957-8 and has declined since. In the more recent past, official statistics on hospital services in this country have been plentiful, yet they are rarely presented together in an easily accessible and unified form. It is the objective of this paper, therefore, to provide a concise summary of key trends and statistics in the sector that will be of use to policymakers, analysts, researchers, and practitioners. We present data on hospital provision in both the public and the private sectors, and on productivity in the NHS hospital sector. The implications of the most significant trends are discussed, and a number of lessons are suggested for audiences both within the United Kingdom and abroad The analysis starts in 1982, the year of a major administrative reorganisation within the NHS, and shortly before the Griffiths Report,1 which ushered in the concept of “general management” in the NHS NHS data reporting conventions in all areas changed in 1987, including a move in reporting from calendar years to financial years, the replacement of “deaths and discharges” with the “finished consultant …

Hospital-at-home has been promoted as a potentially effective means of replacing costly inpatient care with cheaper domiciliary care. We studied three hospital-at-home schemes in West London providing intensive home care for early discharge orthopaedic patients, comparing their costs with those of standard inpatient care. Although costs per day of hospital-at-home care were lower than those of inpatient care, the schemes appeared to increase the total duration of orthopaedic episodes, so that the costs of standard care, per episode, were lower than those of hospital-at-home. While hospital-at-home may offer considerable future potential, substitution of home care for inpatient care will not necessarily save resources.

To describe the costs of establishing and operating a home-based care (HBC) project providing palliative care for people with AIDS (PWA), and to project the full costs to the health care system of extending this care model.Data were collected from seven sites participating in the Hospice Association of South Africa integrated community home-based care (ICHC) model, using site records, interviews with personnel, a continuity of care survey of nursing staff supervising the sites, and time logs kept by community caregivers (CCGs). The seven sites were spread across five provinces, with a mix of rural, peri-urban and urban settings.Set-up (training, equipping and planning) costs per HBC site, HBC operating costs (total and average cost per patient), and average hospital inpatient, hospital outpatient and primary care clinic cost per participating patient. Estimates of scaling up this model of HBC to national roll-out are also provided.Providing palliative HBC to PWAs in their last year of life using the ICHC model costs R2 840 per patient per year. Even with this level of HBC input, patients still incurred hospital costs of R2 522 and primary care clinic costs of R1 154 per patient per year. HBC costs are increased in rural areas where a vehicle is required for staff transport. HBC shows considerable potential to deal cost-effectively with growing palliative care needs in the face of the AIDS epidemic, but we need to understand better the true extent to which HBC can substitute for hospitalisation.

Five recent economic evaluations comparing hospital at home schemes with acute hospital care faced remarkably similar problems. This paper outlines these problems and considers what strategies can be derived from these experiences, which will be relevant to economic evaluations of other aspects of the organisation of care, particularly those crossing the interfaces between primary and secondary health care or the interface between health and social services. The difficulties experienced can be divided into conceptual and practical problems. Conceptual problems were primarily associated with issues of context and related to the choice of comparator, capacity constraints and size of schemes, and the choice between a short or a long run perspective. Practical problems were connected with the time at which schemes were evaluated, the type of clinical study alongside which studies were conducted and the types of data available for use in the analysis. Strategies which can be pursued in conducting economic evaluations of organisational change include giving greater attention to conceptual and hence contextual problems as well as reporting these contextual issues in detail, accepting the need for repeated economic evaluations as organisational changes become more widespread and considering carefully the clinical study design where economic evaluations of organisational change are conducted alongside. These strategies are of importance not just to those conducting economic evaluations but also to those funding appraisals of changes in the organisation of care. Use of different strategies such as those suggested here should be evaluated.

Health economic evaluation has increasingly converged on an agreed set of principles and procedures based around probabilistic modelling, clinical trials, and meta-analysis. Smith and Coast’s article on antimicrobial resistance shows us clearly and elegantly why these methods will probably fail us the moment we step outside the carefully controlled world of trials into the world of uncertain …

In the short to medium term, the biggest effect of peak oil on healthcare will probably be economic dislocation, with direct effects on NHS funding and coverage, and generalised economic insecurity across the population.1 If energy …

The provision of physiotherapy via general practitioner (GP) ‘direct access’ arrangements or in primary care itself has become increasingly common in the UK. Evidence on the economics and the cost-effectiveness of alternative methods of organizing access to physiotherapy services is reviewed, and the likely impacts of different organizational models are discussed. GP direct access physiotherapy and primary care provision appear to have a lower average cost than consultant access physiotherapy models, while GP direct access appears to minimize health care resource use per patient. Primary care physiotherapy provision appears to minimize the costs to patients of seeking care, and appears to generate a greater demand for service than other models. The extent to which physiotherapy provision in primary care can substitute for physiotherapy and other resources in the hospital sector is discussed, as is the extent to which patients may benefit from receiving physiotherapy in primary care. It is argued that continued expansion of access to physiotherapy should be critically appraised, and its ability to improve health status compared with that achievable in alternative patient groups who might benefit from physiotherapy in hospital or rehabilitation settings.

Objectives: Health needs assessment gained prominence under the model of health care purchasing developed to support the 1991 reforms of the UK National Health Service (NHS). The objectives of this paper are to determine how needs assessment has been used in the NHS, to assess the influence it has had on decision-making, and to relate the observed uses of needs assessment to competing theoretical models of health care policy-making. Methods: A survey of needs assessment activity in 14 London health authorities identified 217 needs assessments conducted between 1993 and 1996. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with public health and commissioning staff in each authority. Results: The survey indicated that needs assessment directly supported decision-making and action in two-thirds of the studies identified, but up to 20% of needs assessments had no impact on service provision. Four key functions of health needs assessment were observed: identifying a problem; planning detailed changes to services; providing post hoc justification for earlier decisions; and using participation in needs assessment to build ‘ownership’ of subsequent decisions. Conclusions: The survey suggests that needs assessment is, in practice, consistent with a ‘mixed scanning’ model of decision-making. Needs assessment is used to help select issues for detailed investigation and to direct analytical and decision-making resources. However, certain key areas are not amenable to technical analysis and solution, and are resolved through bargaining.

The provision of a secure and safe blood supply has taken on new importance in sub-Saharan Africa with the onset of the AIDS epidemic. Blood transfusion services capable of providing safe blood are not cheap, however, and there has been some debate on the desirability and sustainability of different financing mechanisms for blood transfusion services. This paper examines patterns of financing blood transfusion in three countries--Côte d'Ivoire, Zimbabwe and Mozambique. It goes on to consider the conceptual options for financing safe blood, and to examine in detail the possible role of user fees for blood transfusion in Africa, developing a simple model of their likely burden to patients based on data from Côte d'Ivoire. The model indicates that, at best, there can only be a limited role for user fees in the financing of safe blood transfusion services, due mainly to the relatively high cost of producing a unit of safe blood. Charging individuals for the blood they receive is likely to be administratively complex and costly, could realistically recover only a fraction of the production costs involved, and is further complicated by the fact that the main recipients of blood transfusion in sub-Saharan Africa are children and pregnant women. If cost-recovery for safe blood is to be attempted, the most viable option appears to be that of charging a collective fee, levied upon all inpatients, not just on those who receive blood. Such a mechanism is not without problems, not least in its failure to offer incentives for more appropriate blood use, and it is still likely to recover only a portion of the costs of producing safe blood. Whether or not cost-recovery is instituted, there will remain an important role for public funding of blood transfusion services, and, by implication, an important role for foreign donor support.