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During the 1998 and 2001 hurricane seasons of the western Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, the Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR), the ER-2 Doppler (EDOP) radar, and the Lightning Instrument Package (LIP) were flown aboard the NASA ER-2 high-altitude aircraft as part of the Third Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-3) and the Fourth Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-4). Several hurricanes, tropical storms, and other precipitation systems were sampled during these experiments. An oceanic rainfall screening technique has been developed using AMPR passive microwave observations of these systems collected at frequencies of 10.7, 19.35, 37.1, and 85.5 GHz. This technique combines the information content of the four AMPR frequencies regarding the gross vertical structure of hydrometeors into an intuitive and easily executable precipitation mapping format. The results have been verified using vertical profiles of EDOP reflectivity and lower-altitude horizontal reflectivity scans collected by the NOAA WP-3D Orion radar. Matching the rainfall classification results with coincident electric field information collected by the LIP readily identifies convective rain regions within the precipitation fields. This technique shows promise as a real-time research and analysis tool for monitoring vertical updraft strength and convective intensity from airborne platforms such as remotely operated or uninhabited aerial vehicles. The technique is analyzed and discussed for a wide variety of precipitation types using the 26 August 1998 observations of Hurricane Bonnie near landfall.

A photograph of a wavenumber-2 asymmetry in the eye of Hurricane Erin taken during a NOAA WP-3D research flight during the Fourth Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-4) field program on 10 September 2001 is described. The photograph of the cloud structure within the eye is evaluated using airborne and satellite remote sensing observations, and a possible explanation for the asymmetry is presented.

Fine-resolution simulations of Hurricane Erin are conducted using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) to investigate roles of thermodynamic, boundary layer, and microphysical processes on Erin's structure and evolution. Choice of boundary layer scheme has the biggest impact on simulations, with the minimum surface pressure ([P.sub.min]) averaged over the last 18 h (when Erin is relatively mature) varying by over 20 hPa. Over the same period, coefficients used to describe graupel fall speeds ([V.sub.g]) affect [P.sub.min] by up to 7 hPa, almost equivalent to the maximum 9-hPa difference between microphysical parameterization schemes; faster [V.sub.g] and schemes with more hydrometeor categories generally give lower [P.sub.min]. Compared to radar reflectivity factor (Z) observed by the NOAA P-3 lower fuselage radar and the NASA ER-2 Doppler radar (EDOP) in Erin, all simulations overpredict the normalized frequency of occurrence of Z larger than 40 dBZ and underpredict that between 20 and 40 dBZ near the surface; simulations overpredict Z larger than 25 to 30 dBZ and underpredict that between 15 and 25 or 30 dBZ near the melting layer, the upper limit depending on altitude. Brightness temperatures ([T.sub.b]) computed from modeled fields at 37.1- and 85.5-GHz channels that respond to scattering by graupel-size ice show enhanced scattering, mainly due to graupel, compared to observations. Simulated graupel mixing ratios are about 10 times larger than values observed in other hurricanes. For the control run at 6.5 km averaged over the last 18 simulated hours, Doppler velocities computed from modeled fields ([V.sub.dop]) greater than 5 m [s.sup.-1] make up 12% of Erin's simulated area for the base simulation but less than 2% of the observed area. In the eyewall, 5% of model updrafts above 9 km are stronger than 10 m [s.sup.-1], whereas statistics from other hurricanes show that 5% of updrafts are stronger than only 5 m [s.sup.-1]. Variations in distributions of Z, vertical motion, and graupel mixing ratios between schemes are not sufficient to explain systematic offsets between observations and models. A new iterative condensation scheme, used with the Reisner mixed-phase microphysics scheme, limits unphysical increases of equivalent potential temperature associated with many condensation schemes and reduces the frequency of Z larger than 50 dBZ, but has minimal effect on Z below 50 dBZ, which represent 95% of the modeled hurricane rain area. However, the new scheme changes the Erin simulations in that 95% of the updrafts are weaker than 5 m [s.sup.-1] and [P.sub.min] is up to 12 hPa higher over the last 18 simulated hours.

Doppler velocity data from Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) radars during four hurricane landfalls are analyzed to investigate the presence of organized vortices in the hurricane boundary layer (HBL). The wavelength, depth, magnitude, and track of velocity anomalies were compiled through analysis of Doppler velocity data. The analysis reveals alternating bands of enhanced and reduced azimuthal winds closely aligned with the mean wind direction. Resulting statistics provide compelling evidence for the presence of organized secondary circulations or boundary layer rolls across significant areas during four hurricane landfalls. The results confirm previous observations of the presence of rolls in the HBL. A potential limitation of the study presented here is the resolution of the WSR-88D data. In particular, analysis of higher-resolution data (e.g., from the Doppler on Wheels) is needed to confirm that data aliasing has not unduly impacted the statistics reported here. Momentum fluxes associated with the secondary circulations are estimated using the covariance between the horizontal and vertical components of the wind fluctuations in roils, with resulting fluxes 2-3 times greater than estimated by parameterizations in numerical weather prediction models. The observational analysis presented here, showing a prevalence of roll vortices in the HBL, has significant implications for the vertical transport of energy in hurricanes, for the character of wind damage, and for improvements in numerical simulations of hurricanes.

The Imaging Wind and Rain Airborne Profiler (IWRAP) is the first high-resolution dual-band airborne Doppler radar designed to study the inner core of teyclones (TCs). IWRAP is operated from a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration WP-3D aircraft during missions through TCs and severe ocean storms. The system is designed to provide high-resolution dual-polarized C- and Ku-band reflectivity and Doppler velocity profiles of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) within the inner core precipitation bands of TCs and to study the effects precipitation has on ocean wind scatterometry as it applies to TCs. IWRAP implements a very unique measurement strategy; it profiles simultaneously at four separate incidence angles (approximately 30[degrees], 35[degrees], 40[degrees], and 50[degrees]) while conically scanning at 60 rpm. A summary of the principles of operation and the design of the instrument is given, followed by examples of IWRAP's unique imaging capability. To our knowledge, these examples include the highest resolution measurements of the ABL winds in a hurricane ever obtained. Index Terms--Atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), cyclone, ocean remote sensing, precipitation, scatterometry.

The global-nested Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS-globalnest) is one piece of NOAA's Unified Forecast System (UFS) application for hurricanes. In this study, results are analyzed from 2020 real-time forecasts by HAFS-globalnest and a similar global-nested model, the Tropical Atlantic version of GFDL's System for High‐resolution prediction on Earth‐to‐Local Domains (T-SHiELD). HAFS-globalnest produced the highest track forecast skill compared to several operational and experimental models, while T-SHiELD showed promising track skills as well. The intensity forecasts from HAFS-globalnest generally had a positive bias at longer lead times primarily due to the lack of ocean coupling, while T-SHiELD had a much smaller intensity bias particularly at longer forecast lead times. With the introduction of a modified planetary boundary layer scheme and an increased number of vertical levels, particularly in the boundary layer, HAFS forecasts of storm size had a smaller positive bias than occurred in the 2019 version of HAFS-globalnest. Despite track forecasts that were comparable to the operational GFS and HWRF, both HAFS-globalnest and T-SHiELD suffered from a persistent right-of-track bias in several cases at the 4–5-day forecast lead times. The reasons for this bias were related to the strength of the subtropical ridge over the western North Atlantic and are continuing to be investigated and diagnosed. A few key case studies from this very active hurricane season, including Hurricanes Laura and Delta, were examined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Fifth Prospectus Development Team of the U.S. Weather Research Program was charged to identify and delineate emerging research opportunities relevant to the prediction of local weather, flooding, and coastal ocean currents associated with landfalling U.S. hurricanes specifically, and tropical cyclones in general. Central to this theme are basic and applied research topics, including rapid intensity change, initialization of and parameterization in dynamical models, coupling of atmospheric and oceanic models, quantitative use of satellite information, and mobile observing strategies to acquire observations to evaluate and validate predictive models. To improve the necessary understanding of physical processes and provide the initial conditions for realistic predictions, a focused, comprehensive mobile observing system in a translating storm-coordinate system is required. Given the development of proven instrumentation and improvement of existing systems, three-dimensional atmospheric and oceanic datasets need to be acquired whenever major hurricanes threaten the United States. The spatial context of these focused three-dimensional datasets over the storm scales is provided by satellites, aircraft, expendable probes released from aircraft, and coastal (both fixed and mobile), moored, and drifting surface platforms. To take full advantage of these new observations, techniques need to be developed to objectively analyze these observations, and initialize models aimed at improving prediction of hurricane track and intensity from global-scale to mesoscale dynamical models. Multinested models allow prediction of all scales from the global, which determine long-term hurricane motion to the convective scale, which affect intensity. Development of an integrated analysis and model forecast system optimizing the use of three-dimensional observations and providing the necessary forecast skill on all relevant spatial scales is required. Detailed diagnostic analyses of these datasets will lead to improved understanding of the physical processes of hurricane motion, intensity change, the atmospheric and oceanic boundary layers, and the air-sea coupling mechanisms. The ultimate aim of this effort is the construction of real-time analyses of storm surge, winds, and rain, prior to and during landfall, to improve warnings and provide local officials with the comprehensive information required for recovery efforts in the hardest hit areas as quickly as possible.

Vertical motions in seven Atlantic hurricanes are determined from data recorded by Doppler radars on research aircraft. The database consists of Doppler velocities and reflectivities from vertically pointing radar rays collected along radial flight legs through the hurricane centers. The vertical motions are estimated throughout the depth of the troposphere from the Doppler velocities and bulk estimates of particle fallspeeds. Portions of the flight tracks are subjectively divided into eyewall, rainband, stratiform, and 'other' regions. Characteristics of the vertical velocity and radar structure are described as a function of altitude for the entire dataset and each of the four regions. In all of the regions, more than 70% of the vertical velocities range from -2 to 2 m [s.sup.-1]. The broadest distribution of vertical motion is in the eyewall region where [approximately]5% of the vertical motions are >5 m [s.sup.-1]. Averaged over the entire dataset, the mean vertical velocity is upward at all altitudes. Mean downward motion occurs only in the lower troposphere of the stratiform region. Significant vertical variations in the mean profiles of vertical velocity and reflectivity are discussed and related to microphysical processes. In the lower and middle troposphere, the characteristics of the Doppler-derived vertical motions are similar to those described in an earlier study using flight-level vertical velocities, even though the horizontal resolution of the Doppler data is [approximately]750 m compared to [approximately]125 m from the in situ flight-level measurements. The Doppler data are available at higher altitudes than those reached by turboprop aircraft and provide information on vertical as well as horizontal variations. In a vertical plane along the radial flight tracks, Doppler up- and downdrafts are defined at each 300-m altitude interval as vertical velocities whose absolute values continuously exceed 1.5 m [s.sup.-1], with at least one speed having an absolute value greater than 3.0 m [s.sup.-1]. The properties of the Doppler drafts are lognormally distributed. In each of the regions, updrafts outnumber downdrafts by at least a factor of 2 and updrafts are wider and stronger than downdrafts. Updrafts in the eyewall slope radially outward with height and are significantly correlated over larger radial and vertical extents than in the other three regions. If the downwind (tangential) slope with height of updrafts varies little among the regions, updrafts capable of transporting air with relatively large moist static energy from the boundary layer to the upper troposphere are primarily in the eyewall region. Downdrafts affect a smaller vertical and horizontal area than updrafts and have no apparent radial slope. The total upward or downward mass flux is defined as the flux produced by all of the upward or downward Doppler vertical velocities. The maximum upward mass flux in all but the 'other' region is near 1-km altitude, an indication that boundary-layer convergence is efficient in producing upward motion. Above the sea surface, the downward mass flux decreases with altitude. At every altitude, the total net mass flux is upward, except for the lower troposphere in the stratiform region where it is downward. Doppler-derived up- and downdrafts are a subset of the vertical velocity field that occupy small fractions of the total area, yet they contribute a substantial fraction to the total mass flux. In the eyewall and rainband regions, for example, the Doppler updrafts cover less than 30% of the area but are responsible for >75% and >50% to the total upward mass flux, respectively. The Doppler downdrafts typically encompass less than 10% of the area yet provide [approximately]50% of the total downward mass flux in the eyewall and [approximately]20% of the total downward flux in the rainband, stratiform, and 'other' regions.

The Hurricane Research Division (HRD) is NOAA's primary component for research on tropical cyclones. In accomplishing research goals, many staff members have developed analysis procedures and forecast models that not only help improve the understanding of hurricane structure, motion, and intensity change, but also provide operational support for forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (NHC). During the 1993 hurricane season, HRD demonstrated three important real-time capabilities for the first time. These achievements included the successful transmission of a series of color radar reflectivity images from the NOAA research aircraft to NHC, the operational availability of objective mesoscale streamline and isotach analyses of a hurricane surface wind field, and the transition of the experimental dropwindsonde program on the periphery of hurricanes to a technology capable of supporting operational requirements. Examples of these and other real-time capabilities are presented for Hurricane Emily.

The hydrometeor water budget of Hurricane Norbert on 24 September 1984 is computed using two microphysical retrieval techniques. Three-dimensional distributions of condensation, evaporation, precipitation, and advection of cloud and precipitation are computed, and a bulk water budget is computed as the volume integral of these distributions. The role of the microphysical retrievals is to provide the three-dimensional distribution of cloud water content, since it cannot be determined with the equipment available. Both retrieval methods use the steady-state continuity equation for water. The first method determines precipitation formation mechanisms from the radar-reflectivity and Doppler wind fields. The cloud water content is determined, through microphysical modeling, to be the amount necessary to explain the rate of precipitation formation. The second method (that of Hauser et al.) solves the water continuity equations as a boundary value problem, while also employing microphysical modeling. This method is applied in three dimensions for the first time. Asymmetries in the water budget of Hurricane Norbert were important, apparently accounting for nearly half the net condensation. The most condensation and heaviest precipitation was to the left of the storm track, while the strongest evaporation was to the rear of the storm. Many of the downdrafts were unsaturated because they were downwind of the precipitation maximum where little water was available for evaporation. Since the evaporation in the downdrafts was significantly less than the condensation in their counterpart updrafts, net condensation (bulk condensation-bulk evaporation) was significantly greater than would be implied by the net upward mass flux. Much of the vapor required to account for the greater bulk condensation appears to have come from enhanced sea surface evaporation under the dry downdraft air to the right of the storm track. The net outflow of condensate from the storm inner core was quite small, although there were appreciable outward and inward horizontal fluxes at certain locations. A maximum of ice outflow to the left of the storm track in the front of the storm corresponded well to the ice particle trajectories that Houze et al. suggested were feeding the stratiform precipitation found farther outward from the storm center.

The application of the probability matching method (PMM) to the distribution of equivalent reflectivity Ze and the rain rate R values, measured by an airborne C-band radar and disdrometer in the eyewall and outerbands of hurricane Anita in 1977, results in a set of Ze-R relations as a function of range. This differs from the conventional relations obtained by using the Jorgensen and Willis method by -8.2 dB2. The PMM can be used in any kind of storm, and can be used to calilbrate airborne weather radar.

This study investigates the precipitation symmetrization preceding rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) experiencing vertical wind shear by analyzing numerical simulations of Typhoon Mujigae (2015) with warm (CTL) and relatively cool (S1) sea surface temperatures (SSTs). A novel finding is that precipitation symmetrization is maintained by the continuous development of deep convection along the inward flank of a convective precipitation shield (CPS), especially in the downwind part. Beneath the CPS, downdrafts flush the boundary layer with low-entropy parcels. These low-entropy parcels do not necessarily weaken the TCs; instead, they are ''recycled'' in the TC circulation, gradually recovered by positive enthalpy fluxes, and develop into convection during their propagation toward a downshear convergence zone. Along-trajectory vertical momentum budget analyses reveal the predominant role of buoyancy acceleration in the convective development in both experiments. The boundary layer recovery is more efficient for warmer SST, and the stronger buoyancy acceleration accounts for the higher probability of these parcels developing into deep convection in the downwind part of the CPS, which helps maintain the precipitation symmetrization in CTL. In contrast, less efficient boundary layer recovery and less upshear deep convection hinder the precipitation symmetrization in S1. These findings highlight the key role of boundary layer recovery in regulating the precipitation symmetrization and upshear deep convection, which further accounts for an earlier RI onset timing of the CTL TC. The inward-rebuilding pathway also illuminates why deep convection is preferentially located inside the radius of maximum wind of sheared TCs undergoing RI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research and observation opportunities in attaining hurricane pre-landfall track forecast gains were a priority for participants of The Hurricane Landfall Workshop held from Nov 15 to 20, 1997. The biggest increase in the precision of track forecast may be realized through improvements in the initial environment and vortex specification. Targeted observing strategies are also being planned to exploit the advantages offered by new mobile platforms such as the GulfStream IV and unmanned aerial vehicles.

The fundamental mechanism underlying tropical cyclone (TC) intensification may be understood from the conservation of absolute angular momentum, where the primary circulation of a TC is driven by the torque acting on air parcels resulting from asymmetric eddy processes, including turbulence. While turbulence is commonly regarded as a flow feature pertaining to the planetary boundary layer (PBL), intense turbulent mixing generated by cloud processes also exists above the PBL in the eyewall and rainbands. Unlike the eddy forcing within the PBL that is negative definite, the sign of eyewall/rainband eddy forcing above the PBL is indefinite and thus provides a possible mechanism to spin up a TC vortex. In this study, we show that the Hurricane Weather Research & forecasting (HWRF) model, one of the operational models used for TC prediction, is unable to generate appropriate sub-grid-scale (SGS) eddy forcing above the PBL due to lack of consideration of intense turbulent mixing generated by the eyewall and rainband clouds. Incorporating an in-cloud turbulent mixing parameterization in the PBL scheme notably improves HWRF's skills on predicting rapid changes in intensity for several past major hurricanes. While the analyses show that the SGS eddy forcing above the PBL is only about one-fifth of the model-resolved eddy forcing, the simulated TC vortex inner-core structure and the associated model-resolved eddy forcing exhibit a substantial dependence on the parameterized SGS eddy processes. The results highlight the importance of eyewall/rainband SGS eddy forcing to numerical prediction of TC intensification, including rapid intensification at the current resolution of operational models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyzes the fast-response (20 Hz) wind data collected by a multilevel tower during the landfalls of Tropical Storm Lionrock (1006), Typhoon Fanapi (1011), and Typhoon Megi (1015) in 2010. Turbulent momentum fluxes are calculated using the standard eddy-correlation method. Vertical eddy diffusivity Km and mixing length are estimated using the directly measured momentumfluxes and mean-wind profiles. It is found that the momentum flux increases with wind speed at all four levels. The eddy diffusivity calculated using the direct-flux method is compared to that using a theoretical method in which the vertical eddy diffusivity is formulated as a linear function of the friction velocity and height. It is found that below ~60 m, Km can be approximately parameterized using this theoretical method, though this method overestimates Km for higher altitude, indicating that the surface-layer depth is close to 60m in the tropical cyclones studied here. It is also found that Km at each level varies with wind direction during landfalls: Km estimated based on observations with landward fetch is significantly larger than that estimated using data with seaward fetch. This result suggests that different parameterizations of Km should be used in the boundary layer schemes of numerical models forecasting tropical cyclones over land versus over the ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]