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Objectives: To estimate the working life expectancies (WLE) of men and women with depression, examining depression by symptom trajectories from the late 20s to early 50s, and to estimate WLE by race/ethnicity and educational attainment. Methods: Data from 9206 participants collected from 1979 to 2018 in the US National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 cohort were used. Depression was measured using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale Short Form at four time points (age 28–35, age 30–37, age 40, and age 50). Labor force status was measured monthly starting at age 30 until age 58–62. Depressive symptom trajectories were estimated using growth mixture modeling and multistate modeling estimated WLE from age 30–60 for each gender and depressive symptom trajectory. Results: Five latent symptom trajectories were established: a persistent low symptom trajectory (n = 6838), an episodic trajectory with high symptoms occurring before age 40 (n = 995), an episodic trajectory with high symptoms occurring around age 40 (n = 526), a trajectory with high symptoms occurring around age 50 (n = 570), and a persistent high symptom trajectory (n = 277). The WLE for men at age 30 was 30.3 years for the persistent low symptom trajectory, 22.8 years for the episodic before 40 trajectory, 19.6 years for the episodic around age 40 trajectory, 18.6 years for the episodic around age 50 trajectory, and 13.2 years for the persistent high symptom trajectory. Results were similar for women. WLE disparities between depression trajectories grew when stratified by race/ethnicity and education level. Conclusions: Roughly a quarter of individuals experienced episodic depressive symptoms. However, despite periods of low depressive symptoms, individuals were expected to be employed ~5–17 years less at age 30 compared to those with low symptoms. Accessible employment and mental health disability support policies and programs across the working life course may be effective in maintaining work attachment and improving WLE among those who experience depression. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is one of the most important cardiovascular diseases, especially in the elderly. People with this disease are at risk of rupture of the abdominal aorta and death. The present study was conducted with the aim of analyzing the cost-effectiveness of endovascular repair compared to open surgery in AAA patients in Iran. Methods: A Markov chain model was developed based on the use of endovascular repair and open surgery. The base-case patient was defined as a 65-year-old man presenting with AAA diameter greater than 5 cm. The determination of costs was from the perspective of the public sector provider. QALY was used to calculate the effectiveness. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and TreeAge software were used for cost-effectiveness analysis. The follow-up period was 10 years and the willingness to pay (WTP) was determined as three times the Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Result: At the end of year 10, the endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) strategy gained 1 318 313 559 Iranian Rial (IRR) (67 885.29 $) in cost and 3.57 QALYs in effectiveness. In contrast, the use of the open surgery repair (OSR) strategy gained 1 186 761 858 IRR (61 111.16$) in cost and 3·32 QALYs in effectiveness. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, comparing EVAR versus OSR, was 53, 346, 3757 IRR (178.36$) per QALYs, which is lower than the proposed WTP, indicating that EVAR is more expensive and more effective. Based on the Monte Carlo simulation test, EVAR is the preferred strategy in 58.6% of the population. Conclusion: Endovascular repair has a relative superiority compared to open surgery, and the probability of the effectiveness of endovascular repair compared to open surgery does not change with increasing willingness to pay. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

PurposeThe efficacy of tislelizumab plus chemotherapy in improving progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in unresectable gastric or gastroesophageal junction cancer (GC/GEJC) has recently been emphasized. This study compared the cost-effectiveness of tislelizumab plus chemotherapy versus placebo plus chemotherapy for the United States (US) and Chinese populations.MethodsUsing data from the RATIONALE-305 phase 3 trial, a Markov model was developed to analyze quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), incremental net health benefits (INHBs), and incremental net monetary benefits (INMBs). The health state utilities and direct medical costs were obtained from the relevant literature and local cost databases. The model uncertainty was evaluated using sensitivity analyses.FindingsIn the base-case analysis, the addition of tislelizumab to chemotherapy yielded an ICER of $37,768.48 per QALY in China, slightly below the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $38,042.49 per QALY, showing marginal cost-effectiveness with an INHB of 0.05 QALYs and an INMB of $1,852.49. Subgroup analyses revealed ICERs of $23,853.52 for patients with a PD-L1 TAP score ≥ 5% (TAP ≥ 5%). In the US, the ICER was $502,786.22 per QALY in the intent-to-treat (ITT) and $321,395.28 per QALY in the TAP ≥ 5% subgroup, exceeding the US WTP threshold of $150,000.00.ImplicationsIn China, tislelizumab plus chemotherapy is a cost-effective first-line therapy for unresectable GC/GEJC in both ITT and TAP ≥ 5% subgroups. In the US, tislelizumab plus chemotherapy is not cost-effective.

BackgroundThe combination of trifluridine/tipiracil (FTD/TPI) and bevacizumab has demonstrated promising efficacy and safety in the treatment of colorectal cancer (CRC). This study aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of trifluridine/tipiracil combined with bevacizumab vs. trifluridine/tipiracil monotherapy as a third-line treatment regimen for colorectal cancer within the Chinese healthcare system, providing an economic basis for clinical application.MethodsBased on data from the SUNLIGHT Phase III clinical trial, a dynamic Markov model was constructed with a cycle length of 4 weeks and a simulation duration of 10 years. Direct medical costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were calculated. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was compared with the willingness-to-pay threshold (WTP = ¥268,200.00/QALY) to assess the economic viability of the treatment regimen. One-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were conducted to verify the robustness of the model results.ResultsThe cost of trifluridine/tipiracil combined with bevacizumab treatment (¥838,492.74) was higher than that of trifluridine/tipiracil monotherapy (¥357,396.97), with greater health benefits (2.45 QALYs vs. 1.54 QALYs). The ICER was ¥527,577.36/QALY, exceeding the willingness-to-pay threshold. One-way sensitivity analysis indicated that drug costs and utility values during the progression-free period significantly impacted model outputs. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis further confirmed the robustness of the results, showing that at a willingness-to-pay threshold of ¥494,000.00, the probability of the combined treatment being cost-effective was 50%.ConclusionTrifluridine/tipiracil combined with bevacizumab, as a third-line treatment for colorectal cancer, does not have a cost-effectiveness advantage compared to trifluridine/tipiracil monotherapy in economic evaluations.

BackgroundHeart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) is one of the most costly and deadly chronic disease states. The cost effectiveness of a comprehensive quadruple therapy regimen for HFrEF has not been studied.ObjectivesThe authors sought to determine the cost-effectiveness of quadruple therapy comprised of beta-blockers, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists, angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitors, and sodium glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors vs regimens composed of only beta-blockers, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, and mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (triple therapy), and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and beta-blockers (double therapy).MethodsUsing a 2-state Markov model, the authors performed a cost-effectiveness study using simulated populations of 1,000 patients with HFrEF based on the participants in the PARADIGM-HF (Prospective comparison of ARNI with ACEI to Determine Impact on Global Mortality and morbidity in Heart Failure) trial and compared them by treatment strategy (quadruple therapy vs triple and double therapy) from a United States health care system perspective. The authors also performed 10,000 probabilistic simulations.ResultsTreatment with quadruple therapy resulted in an increase of 1.73 and 2.87 life-years compared with triple therapy and double therapy, respectively, and an increase in quality-adjusted life-years of 1.12 and 1.85 years, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of quadruple therapy vs triple therapy and double therapy were $81,000 and $51,081, respectively. In 91.7% and 99.9% of probabilistic simulations quadruple therapy had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of

Abstract Background Mammography (MG) has demonstrated its effectiveness in diminishing mortality and advanced-stage breast cancer incidences in breast screening initiatives. Notably, research has accentuated the superior diagnostic efficacy and cost-effectiveness of digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT). However, the scope of evidence validating the cost-effectiveness of DBT remains limited, prompting a requisite for more comprehensive investigation. The present study aimed to rigorously evaluate the cost-effectiveness of DBT plus MG (DBT-MG) compared to MG alone within the framework of Taiwan’s National Health Insurance program. Methods All parameters for the Markov decision tree model, encompassing event probabilities, costs, and utilities (quality-adjusted life years, QALYs), were sourced from reputable literature, expert opinions, and official records. With 10,000 iterations, a 2-year cycle length, a 30-year time horizon, and a 2% annual discount rate, the analysis determined the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) to compare the cost-effectiveness of the two screening methods. Probabilistic and one-way sensitivity analyses were also conducted to demonstrate the robustness of findings. Results The ICER of DBT-MG compared to MG was US$5971.5764/QALYs. At a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of US$33,004 (Gross Domestic Product of Taiwan in 2021) per QALY, more than 98% of the probabilistic simulations favored adopting DBT-MG versus MG. The one-way sensitivity analysis also shows that the ICER depended heavily on recall rates, biopsy rates, and positive predictive value (PPV2). Conclusion DBT-MG shows enhanced diagnostic efficacy, potentially diminishing recall costs. While exhibiting a higher biopsy rate, DBT-MG aids in the detection of early-stage breast cancers, reduces recall rates, and exhibits notably superior cost-effectiveness.

Abstract Introduction This study aimed to estimate and compare the lifetime clinical and economic burden of invasive pneumococcal diseases (IPD) attributable to the serotypes contained in a new 21-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (V116) vs. the 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV20) among adults aged 18 years and above in the USA. Methods A state-transition Markov model was used to track IPD cases and deaths as well as the associated direct medical costs (in 2023 US dollars) from a US healthcare payer perspective at 3% annual discount rate. The results were summarized for V116, PCV20, and eight unique serotypes contained in V116. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the most influential inputs on the overall total direct lifetime cost. Results For the total population of US adults aged 18 years and above in 2021 (approx. 258 million residents), the estimated lifetime numbers of cases of IPD, post-meningitis sequelae (PMS), and IPD-related deaths attributable to the serotypes contained in V116 were approximately 1.4 million, 17,608, and 186,200, respectively, with a total discounted lifetime direct cost of $32.6 billion. A substantial proportion (approx. 31%) of those were attributable to the unique eight serotypes. The corresponding estimates for PCV20 were approximately 35% lower—934,000, 11,500, and 120,000, respectively—with a total discounted direct lifetime cost of $21.9 billion. Conclusion These results show that V116 serotypes (compared to PCV20) are associated with substantially higher clinical and economic burden of IPD. The addition of V116 to vaccination recommendations can help to reduce the residual burden of IPD in US adults.

Abstract Objective This study aimed to evaluate the cost-utility of the addition of vericiguat for treating chronic heart failure (CHF) in China from the healthcare payer’s perspective. Methods A Markov model was built to estimate the cost and utility of treating CHF using vericiguat plus standard treatment (vericiguat group) vs. standard treatment alone (standard treatment group). The clinical parameters (mortality of cardiovascular and hospitalization rate of HF) were calculated according to the VICTORIA clinical trial. The HF cost and utility data were obtained from the literature published in China. One-way sensitivity analysis and probability sensitivity analysis were performed. Results According to the 13-year model, vericiguat was more expensive (155599.07 CNY vs. 259396.83 CNY) and more effective (4.41 QALYs vs. 4.54 QALYs). The incremental cost‐utility ratio (ICUR) was 802389.27 CNY per QALY. One-way sensitivity analysis revealed that cardiovascular mortality in the two groups was the parameter that had the greatest impact on the results. The GDP per capita in 2022 in China was 85,700 CNY. The probability sensitivity analysis (PSA) showed that the probability of vericiguat being cost-effective was only 41.7% at the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of 3 times GDP per capita (257,100 CNY). Conclusions In China, the treatment of CHF with vericiguat is not cost-effective. The drug price could decrease to 145.8 CNY, which could be considered cost-effective.

Abstract Background Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is associated with a high readmission rate and poses a significant disease burden. South Korea initiated pilot projects on transitional care services (TCS) to reduce readmissions. However, evidence from cost-effectiveness analyses remains undiscovered. This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of TCS in patients with COPD from the healthcare system’ perspective. Method A cost-utility analysis was conducted using a Markov model containing six components of possible medical use after discharge. Transition probabilities and medical costs were extracted from the National Health Insurance Service Senior Cohort (NHIS-SC), and utility data were obtained from published literature. Sensitivity analyses were performed to test the robustness of the results. Results Conducting TCS produced an incremental quality-adjusted life years gain of 0.231, 0.275, 0.296 for those in their 60s, 70s, and 80s, respectively, and cost savings of $225.16, $1668, and $2251.64 for those in their 60s, 70s, and 80s, respectively, per patient over a 10-year time horizon. The deterministic sensitivity analysis indicated that the TCS cost and the cost of readmission by other diseases immensely impact the results. The probabilistic sensitivity analyses showed that the probability that the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is below $23,050 was over 85%, 93%, and 97% for those in the 60s, 70s, and 80s, respectively. Conclusions TCS was the dominant option compared to usual care. However, it is advantageous to the healthcare budget preferentially consider patients aged over 70 years with severe TCS symptoms. In addition, it is essential to include the management of underlying comorbidities in TCS intervention. Trial registration Clinical Research Information Service (CRIS), KCT0007937. Registered on 24 November 2022

Achieving low ripple, high efficiency, high reliability, and optimal volume and weight are crucial in the power supply of traveling-wave-tube amplifier (TWTA) lamps in satellites. This article focuses on optimizing the efficiency and reliability of high-voltage DC/DC electronic power converters for use in satellite and TWTA systems. The optimization goal, using the multi-objective genetic algorithm NSGA-II, is to minimize the objective function, encompassing both efficiency and reliability. Reliability is assessed through a Markov model, which considers short-circuit and open-circuit failures in circuit switches and diodes, as well as short-circuit failures in passive circuit elements. The optimization process begins with defining the input variables for the algorithm. Sensitivity analysis is utilized to eliminate parameters with low sensitivity whose variations do not significantly impact the objective function. Parameters for the NSGA-II algorithm, including the number of iterations, population size, and probabilities of crossover and mutation, are precisely determined to ensure accurate computation of circuit variables. The results demonstrate that this method achieves high reliability alongside high efficiency through the optimal selection of circuit components, ensuring the converter's effectiveness for application in satellite systems.

Rotavirus (RV) vaccines have demonstrated substantial effectiveness in reducing the healthcare burden caused by gastroenteritis (RVGE) worldwide. This study aims to understand the differential impact of RV vaccination in reducing RVGE burden in children under 7 years old in China. A Markov Model was used to investigate the health impact of introducing two different RV vaccines into the Chinese population. The analysis was conducted for RV5, a live pentavalent human-bovine reassortant vaccine, and Lanzhou Lamb RV (LLR), a live-attenuated monovalent RV vaccine, separately, by comparing the strategy of each vaccine to no vaccination within a Chinese birth cohort, including 100,000 children modeled until 7 years of age. The vaccination scenario assumed a vaccination coverage of 2.5%, 2.5%, 90% and 5% for doses one, two, three and no vaccine, respectively, for both vaccines. Strategies with RV5, LLR, and no vaccination were associated with 9,895, 49,069, and 64,746 symptomatic RV infections, respectively. RV5 and LLR were associated with an 85% and 24% reduction in the total symptomatic RV infections, respectively, suggesting that the health benefits of RV5 are at least three-fold greater than those associated with the LLR. Further, strategies with RV5 and LLR resulted in an estimated 206 and 59-year increase in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), respectively. Sensitivity and scenario analyses supported the robustness of the base-case findings. Use of RV vaccine is expected to improve RV-associated health outcomes and its adoption will help alleviate the burden of RVGE in China. RV5 use will result in significantly better health outcomes.

Aim: The cost-effectiveness of treatment options (anticholinergics, β3-adrenoceptor agonists, onabotulinumtoxinA, sacral nerve stimulation and percutaneous tibial stimulation [the latter two including new rechargeable neurostimulators]) for the management of overactive bladder (OAB) were compared with best supportive care (BSC) using a previously published Markov model. Materials & methods: Cost-effectiveness was evaluated over a 15-year time horizon, and sensitivity analyses were performed using 2- and 5-year horizons. Discontinuation rates, resource utilization, and costs were derived from published sources. Results: Using Medicare and commercial costs over a 15-year time period, onabotulinumtoxinA 100U had incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) gained of $39,591/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) and $42,255/QALY, respectively, versus BSC, which were the lowest ICERs of all assessed treatments. The sensitivity analyses at 2- and 5-year horizons also showed onabotulinumtoxinA to be the most cost-effective of all assessed treatments versus BSC. Conclusion: OnabotulinumtoxinA 100U is currently the most cost-effective treatment for OAB.

Globally, there are over 1 billion people infected with soil-transmitted helminths (STHs), mostly living in marginalized settings with inadequate sanitation in sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. The World Health Organization recommends an integrated approach to STH morbidity control through improved access to sanitation and hygiene education and the delivery of preventive chemotherapy (PC) to school-age children delivered through schools. Progress of STH control programs is currently estimated using a baseline (pre-PC) school-based prevalence survey and then monitored using periodical school-based prevalence surveys, known as Impact Assessment Surveys (IAS). We investigated whether integrating geostatistical methods with a Markov model or a mechanistic transmission model for projecting prevalence forward in time from baseline can improve IAS design strategies. To do this, we applied these 2 methods to prevalence data collected in Kenya, before evaluating and comparing their performance in accurately informing optimal survey design for a range of IAS sampling designs. We found that, although both approaches performed well, the mechanistic method more accurately projected prevalence over time and provided more accurate information for guiding survey design. Both methods performed less well in areas with persistent STH hotspots where prevalence did not decrease despite multiple rounds of PC. Our findings show that these methods can be useful tools for more efficient and accurate targeting of PC. The general framework built in this paper can also be used for projecting prevalence and informing survey design for other neglected tropical diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The optimal designing of the hybrid energy system (HES) is a challenging task due to the multiple objectives and various uncertainties. Especially for HES, primarily powered by solar energy, the reference solar radiation data directly impact the result of the optimization design. To incorporate the stochastic characteristics of solar radiation into the sizing process, a data-driven stochastic modeling method for solar radiation is proposed. The method involves two layers of stochastic processes that capture the intraday variation and daily evolution of solar radiation. First, the clearness index (CI) is introduced to describe the radiation intensity at different times. Then, the daily clearness state (DCS) is proposed, based on the statistical indicators of the intraday CI. The Markov model is used to describe the stochastic evolutionary characteristics between different DCSs. The probabilistic distribution of the CI under different DCS is obtained based on the diffusion kernel density estimation (DKDE), which is used for the stochastic generation of the CI at various times of the day. Finally, the radiation profile required for the optimal design is obtained by the stochastic generation of the DCS sequences and the intraday clearness index under corresponding states. A case study of an off-grid solar-powered HES is provided to illustrate this methodology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: This study aimed to evaluate the cost-utility of the addition of vericiguat for treating chronic heart failure (CHF) in China from the healthcare payer's perspective. Methods: A Markov model was built to estimate the cost and utility of treating CHF using vericiguat plus standard treatment (vericiguat group) vs. standard treatment alone (standard treatment group). The clinical parameters (mortality of cardiovascular and hospitalization rate of HF) were calculated according to the VICTORIA clinical trial. The HF cost and utility data were obtained from the literature published in China. One-way sensitivity analysis and probability sensitivity analysis were performed. Results: According to the 13-year model, vericiguat was more expensive (155599.07 CNY vs. 259396.83 CNY) and more effective (4.41 QALYs vs. 4.54 QALYs). The incremental cost‐utility ratio (ICUR) was 802389.27 CNY per QALY. One-way sensitivity analysis revealed that cardiovascular mortality in the two groups was the parameter that had the greatest impact on the results. The GDP per capita in 2022 in China was 85,700 CNY. The probability sensitivity analysis (PSA) showed that the probability of vericiguat being cost-effective was only 41.7% at the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of 3 times GDP per capita (257,100 CNY). Conclusions: In China, the treatment of CHF with vericiguat is not cost-effective. The drug price could decrease to 145.8 CNY, which could be considered cost-effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Several model studies suggested the implementation of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) testing and treatment could greatly reduce the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) and achieve the 2035 target of the "End TB" Strategy in China. The present study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of LTBI testing and TB preventive treatment among key population (≥ 50 years old) susceptible to TB at community level in China. Methods: A Markov model was developed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of LTBI testing using interferon gamma release assay (IGRA) and subsequent treatment with 6-month daily isoniazid regimen (6H) (as a standard regimen for comparison) or 6-week twice-weekly rifapentine and isoniazid regimen (6-week H2P2) in a cohort of 10,000 adults with an average initial age of 50 years. Results: In the base-case analysis, LTBI testing and treatment with 6H was dominated (i.e., more expensive with a lower quality-adjusted life year (QALY)) by LTBI testing and treatment with 6-week H2P2. LTBI testing and treatment with 6-week H2P2 was more effective than no intervention at a cost of $20,943.81 per QALY gained, which was below the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $24,211.84 per QALY gained in China. The one-way sensitivity analysis showed the change of LTBI prevalence was the parameter that most influenced the results of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Conclusion: As estimated by a Markov model, LTBI testing and treatment with 6-week H2P2 was cost-saving compared with LTBI testing and treatment with 6H, and it was considered to be a cost-effective option for TB control in rural China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The overall benefits of the newly introduced family‐based Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection control and management (FBCM) and screen‐and‐treat strategies in preventing multiple upper gastrointestinal diseases at national level in China have not been explored. We investigate the cost‐effectiveness of these strategies in the whole Chinese population. Materials and Methods: Decision trees and Markov models of H. pylori infection‐related non‐ulcer dyspepsia (NUD), peptic ulcer disease (PUD), and gastric cancer (GC) were developed to simulate the cost‐effectiveness of these strategies in the whole 494 million households in China. The main outcomes include cost‐effectiveness, life years (LY), quality‐adjusted life year (QALY), and incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio (ICER). Results: When compared with no‐screen strategy, both FBCM and screen‐and‐treat strategies reduced the number of new cases of NUD, PUD, PUD‐related deaths, and the prevalence of GC, and cancer‐related deaths. The costs saved by these two strategies were $1467 million and $879 million, quality‐adjusted life years gained were 227 million and 267 million, and life years gained were 59 million and 69 million, respectively. Cost‐effectiveness analysis showed that FBCM strategy costs −$6.46/QALY and −$24.75/LY, and screen‐and‐treat strategy costs −$3.3/QALY and −$12.71/LY when compared with no‐screen strategy. Compared to the FBCM strategy, the screen‐and‐treat strategy reduced the incidence of H. pylori‐related diseases, added 40 million QALYs, and saved 10 million LYs, but at the increased cost of $588 million. Cost‐effectiveness analysis showed that screen‐and‐treat strategy costs $14.88/QALY and $59.5/LY when compared with FBCM strategy. The robustness of the results was also verified. Conclusions: Both FBCM and screen‐and‐treat strategies are highly cost‐effective in preventing NUD, PUD, and GC than the no‐screen strategy in Chinese families at national level. As FBCM strategy is more practical and efficient, it is expected to play a more important role in preventing familial H. pylori infection and also serves as an excellent reference for other highly infected societies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of The Planner & Development is the property of Republic of Iraq Ministry of Higher Education & Scientific Research (MOHESR) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Individual-based models (IBMs) enable modelers to avoid far-reaching abstractions and strong simplifications by allowing for a state-based representation of individuals. The fact that IBMs are not represented using a standardized mathematical framework such as differential equations makes it harder to reproduce IBMs and introduces difficulties in the analysis of IBMs. We propose a model architecture based on representing individuals via Markov models. Individuals are coupled to populations — for which individuals are not explicitly represented — that are modeled by differential equations. The resulting models consisting of continuous-time finite-state Markov models coupled to systems of differential equations are examples of piecewise-deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs). We will demonstrate that PDMPs, also known as hybrid stochastic systems, allow us to design detailed state-based representations of individuals which, at the same time, can be systematically analyzed by taking advantage of the theory of PDMPs. We will illustrate design and analysis of IBMs using PDMPs via the example of a predator that intermittently feeds on a logistically growing prey by stochastically switching between a resting and a feeding state. This simple model shows a surprisingly rich dynamics which, nevertheless, can be comprehensively analyzed using the theory of PDMPs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When studying Markov chain models and semi-Markov chain models, it is useful to know which state vectors n , where each component n i represents the number of entities in the state S i , can be maintained or attained. This question leads to the definitions of maintainability and attainability for (time-homogeneous) Markov chain models. Recently, the definition of maintainability was extended to the concept of state reunion maintainability ( S R -maintainability) for semi-Markov chains. Within the framework of semi-Markov chains, the states are subdivided further into seniority-based states. State reunion maintainability assesses the maintainability of the distribution across states. Following this idea, we introduce the concept of state reunion attainability, which encompasses the potential of a system to attain a specific distribution across the states after uniting the seniority-based states into the underlying states. In this paper, we start by extending the concept of attainability for constant-sized Markov chain models to systems that are subject to growth or contraction. Afterwards, we introduce the concepts of attainability and state reunion attainability for semi-Markov chain models, using S R -maintainability as a starting point. The attainable region, as well as the state reunion attainable region, are described as the convex hull of their respective vertices, and properties of these regions are investigated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In the double-blind phase III ADAURA randomized clinical trial, adjuvant osimertinib showed a substantial overall survival benefit in patients with stage IB to IIIA, EGFR-mutated, completely resected non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing the use of adjuvant osimertinib to placebo in patients with stage IB to IIIA, EGFRmutated, resected NSCLC. Methods: Based on the results obtained from the ADAURA trial, a Markov model with three-state was employed to simulate patients who were administered either osimertinib or placebo until disease recurrence or completion of the study period (3 years). Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), lifetime costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were calculated with a willingnessto-pay (WTP) threshold of $150,000 per QALY. Both univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were carried out to explore the robustness of the model. Results: Osimertinib produced additional 1.59 QALYs with additional costs of $492,710 compared to placebo, giving rise to ICERs of $309,962.66/QALY. The results of the univariate sensitivity analysis indicated that the utility of disease-free survival (DFS), cost of osimertinib, and discount rate had the greatest impact on the outcomes. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that osimertinib exhibited a 0% chance of being considered cost-effective for patients using a WTP threshold $150,000/QALY. Conclusion: In our model, osimertinib was unlikely to be cost-effective compared to placebo for stage IB to IIIA, EGFR-mutated, completely resected NSCLC patients from the perspective of a U.S. payer at a WTP threshold of $150,000 per QALY. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aggression in inpatients with psychotic disorders is harmful to patients and health care professionals. The current study introduces a novel approach for assessing short-term sequences of different types of aggression. Occurrence and type of aggressive behavior was assessed retrospectively by reviewing hospital charts in a sample of 120 inpatients with psychotic disorders, admitted to the psychiatric wards of an academic hospital using the Modified Overt Aggression Scale (MOAS). Behavioral sequences of verbal aggression, physical aggression against objects, physical aggression against oneself and physical aggression against others were analyzed by using Markov models, a statistical technique providing the probabilities of transferring from one state to another. The Markov models showed that when patients behave aggressively, they are likely to either show the same type of aggression or to be non-aggressive consecutively. Patients are, however, unlikely to subsequently show another type of aggression. Non-aggressive behavior is very unlikely to result in physical aggression or aggression against objects. The current study introduced a novel approach on how to investigate aggressive behavior in patients with psychotic disorders. Replication of our results in a bigger sample is needed to reliably develop a day-to-day risk assessment tool for aggressive behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fluidization is a crucial technique for converting stochastic Petri nets (SPNs) into continuous Petri nets (CPNs) to overcome the challenge of combinatorial state explosion, which results in prolonged computational time for steady-state probability estimates. The ultimate aim is to obtain a precise continuous model that captures the behavior of the SPN. However, fluidization's continuous behavior is distinct from typical stochastic systems. In this study, we conducted an in-depth analysis of fluidization in single and multiple regions. We considered different approaches, including piecewise linear and adaptive techniques, and added sufficient conditions to both approaches to achieve superior convergence between the two models. Our results are interpreted and compared. The adaptive approach, which utilizes a nonlinear adaptive law to minimize errors caused by average throughput and average marking variations, achieved excellent convergence compared to the piecewise linear approach, which involves several steps, such as subdividing marking trajectories into multiple phases and intermediate points. Overall, this study highlights the effectiveness of the adaptive approach in enhancing convergence in CPNs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Electric Power Automation Equipment / Dianli Zidonghua Shebei is the property of Electric Power Automation Equipment Press and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Objective: Statin is well-established as a classical lipid-lowering drug, and its cost has reduced considerably in the past years. Inclisiran is a new and effective lipidlowering drug given as a subcutaneous injection at 6-month intervals. This study aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the combination use of inclisiran and statin versus statin alone for dyslipidemia in the mainland China population. Methods: The Markov decision-making model was used, and the clinical data and real-world data were collected at the University of Hong Kong--Shenzhen Hospital (HKU-SZH). Patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and blood lipid levels above the target on statin therapy were included as the target population and analyzed for cardiovascular events, future medical expenses, and the calculation made for the total life cost, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate the influence of parameter uncertainty on the basecase analysis results. Results: If inclisiran was priced at Chinese renminbi (RMB) 20,000.00 (USD 2,973.49) per injection, patients in the inclisiran and statin group would incur an incremental cost of RMB 449,233.56 (USD 66,789.60) compared with the statin group, and they would obtain 0.21 more QALYs in their life cycle. The subsequent ICER of RMB 2,127,756.78 (USD 316,343.32)/QALY was significantly higher than the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of 3 times the per capita GDP of China, which was RMB 257,094.00 (USD 38,223.33)/QALY, suggesting that the combined use of inclisiran and statin was not cost-effective. If the price of inclisiran were reduced to RMB 2,500.00 (USD 371.69)/injection, the ICER of patients in the inclisiran and statin group would become RMB 257,790.63 (USD 38,326.91)/QALY, which is slightly lower than the WTP threshold of 3 times the per capita GDP of China, indicating that the combined use of inclisiran and statin would be cost-effective. Conclusion: If inclisiran is priced at RMB 20,000.00 (USD 2,973.49)/injection, then the combined use of inclisiran and statins is not cost-effective compared with statin alone. It will be economical only if the price of inclisiran is reduced by more than 88%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is associated with a high readmission rate and poses a significant disease burden. South Korea initiated pilot projects on transitional care services (TCS) to reduce readmissions. However, evidence from cost-effectiveness analyses remains undiscovered. This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of TCS in patients with COPD from the healthcare system' perspective. Method: A cost-utility analysis was conducted using a Markov model containing six components of possible medical use after discharge. Transition probabilities and medical costs were extracted from the National Health Insurance Service Senior Cohort (NHIS-SC), and utility data were obtained from published literature. Sensitivity analyses were performed to test the robustness of the results. Results: Conducting TCS produced an incremental quality-adjusted life years gain of 0.231, 0.275, 0.296 for those in their 60s, 70s, and 80s, respectively, and cost savings of $225.16, $1668, and $2251.64 for those in their 60s, 70s, and 80s, respectively, per patient over a 10-year time horizon. The deterministic sensitivity analysis indicated that the TCS cost and the cost of readmission by other diseases immensely impact the results. The probabilistic sensitivity analyses showed that the probability that the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is below $23,050 was over 85%, 93%, and 97% for those in the 60s, 70s, and 80s, respectively. Conclusions: TCS was the dominant option compared to usual care. However, it is advantageous to the healthcare budget preferentially consider patients aged over 70 years with severe TCS symptoms. In addition, it is essential to include the management of underlying comorbidities in TCS intervention. Trial registration: Clinical Research Information Service (CRIS), KCT0007937. Registered on 24 November 2022 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has the largest number of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in the world, but current levels of diagnosis and treatment are low. The objective of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of various universal HCV screening and treatment strategies in China and inform decisions on health policy. A cost-effectiveness analytical study. We developed a Markov model to investigate cost-effectiveness of different HCV screening and treatment strategies in China. We simulated several screening scenarios for Chinese people aged 18–70 years. We estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of different intervention scenarios compared with status quo. Expanded HCV screening and treatment strategy with prioritisation for high-risk groups (Scenario S5) was the most cost-effective strategy (ICER: USD $11,667.71/quality-adjusted life-year [QALY] gained), which resulted in great reduction in HCV-related diseases and deaths, with a 67.11% reduction in cases of chronic HCV. Universal HCV screening and treatment implementation remains a cost-effective strategy when delayed until 2025 (ICER: USD $17,093.69/QALY), yet the delayed strategy is less effective in reducing HCV-related deaths. Expanded HCV screening and treatment strategy with prioritisation for high-risk groups is the most cost-effective strategy and has lead to a significant reduction in both HCV morbidity and mortality in China, which would essentially eliminate HCV as a public threat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper examines the specificity of artificial intelligence-based automatic train operation systems. Justifying the functional safety (FS) of such systems is quite difficult. The paper proposes a process for proving the functional safety of intelligent systems. A hybrid control system for a shunting locomotive was developed and analysed. It combines machine vision (MV), train protection devices and manual control by a driver. A model is presented that allows examining the functional safety of a locomotive control system layer by layer, i.e., evaluating the time to safety degradation depending on the component failure and subsequent requirement of bringing the locomotive to a complete stop. This allows to improve the FS of the shunting locomotive control system with machine vision from SIL 2 to SIL 3 and maintaining it during sufficiently long periods of time (over a quarter of the mean time to system failure). The mean time of faultless operation of a locomotive control system until it has to be brought to a complete stop for safety reasons can be increased three times. A general approach is proposed to design the functional safety of automatic train operation systems. It is based on the division of the information processing process into two subprocesses, i.e., internal intelligent information processing onboard the locomotive for the purpose of decision-making regarding track vacancy and communication of initial visual information to the operating driver for decision-making. The division of this process must be combined with redundant machine vision facilities, regular comparison of the outputs of the onboard and fixed machine vision facilities, redundant comparison outputs, smoothing of the outputs in the process of locomotive movement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerous attacks have targeted government agencies and industrial companies, making cybersecurity a global issue. When combined with a wide range of attack types, advanced-persistent threats (APTs) are becoming a significant threat to cyber security. A new and highly complicated attack is the APT Attack, which is an Advanced Persistent Threat that focuses on specific businesses and organizations and has taken the place of multi-stage attacks (MSAs). Digital duplicity has arisen as a guarded way to deal with securing our digital foundation from APTs. Our recommended approach combines reactive (graph analysis) and proactive (cyber deception technology) defence to thwart the attackers' lateral movement. In light of organization follows and Interruption Recognition Framework (IDS) alerts, the principal stage figures the most probable assault way. The assault interpreting is the second phase of the suggested structure. This stage determines the most likely succession of Able phases for a given grouping of related cautions using the secret Markov model (Well). The evaluation's findings demonstrate that our approach can recognize the most likely attack paths and thwart APT attempts. Here suggested approach offers an estimate of the APT stage sequence with a prediction accuracy at its betterment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anatomic total shoulder arthroplasty (aTSA) has historically been considered the gold-standard surgical strategy for patients with end-stage glenohumeral osteoarthritis (GHOA). However, reverse shoulder arthroplasty (RSA) is increasingly used for shoulders with GHOA with an intact rotator cuff due to concerns regarding late cuff failure, anatomic glenoid component loosening, and the impact of bone loss and severe soft-tissue balance in aTSA. With substantial differences in cost between aTSA and RSA, it remains unclear whether the increased risk of late rotator cuff dysfunction in older adults justifies the increased cost of RSA. Therefore, the objective of this study was to utilize a decision-analytic Markov model to 1) quantify the cost-effectiveness of aTSA vs. RSA in patients with GHOA and intact rotator cuff and 2) determine whether an age exists at which RSA is more cost-effective than aTSA. A Markov model was developed to determine accumulated costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) over a lifetime horizon for patients with end-stage GHOA and an intact rotator cuff who undergo either aTSA or RSA. Costs, health utility values, and transition probabilities were derived from the published literature. Sensitivity analyses were performed to identify age cutoffs at which one treatment option is more cost-effective than the other. For the baseline case of a 72-year-old patient, aTSA resulted in 9.43 QALYs and $29,077 in accumulated costs, while RSA produced 9.44 QALYs at a total cost of $31,199 (incremental cost-utility ratio (ICER) comparing rTSA to aTSA: $188,222.94/QALY). Because the ICER for rTSA fell above the $50,000 willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold, aTSA was determined to be the most cost-effective strategy for patients of this age. Within the age-based sensitivity analysis, RSA was the most cost-effective option for those 67 years of age or younger, while aTSA was the dominant strategy at 77 years and older, resulting in both equal QALYs and lower costs for patients in this age group. Based on this analysis, aTSA is a cost-effective treatment strategy for GHOA with an intact rotator cuff in adults over 67 years of age. For patients between the ages of 67 and 77, RSA resulted in marginally higher QALYs, but this increase was not enough to offset the increased costs to be considered cost-effective. In this model, RSA was cost-effective for individuals 67 years of age or younger. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Early clot removal using endovascular intervention aims to reduce post-thrombotic syndrome (PTS) following iliofemoral deep venous thrombosis (DVT). This may reduce long term morbidity but incurs a higher initial cost. This study examined the cost effectiveness of catheter directed thrombolysis (CDT) and pharmacochemical thrombectomy (PMT) compared with oral anticoagulation (OAC) alone for treatment of acute iliofemoral DVT in the United Kingdom. A combined decision tree (acute DVT complications) and Markov model (long term complications [PTS]) was used for decision analytic modelling with five states: no PTS, mild PTS, moderate PTS, severe PTS, and dead. All patients started with acute DVT. Patients who survived acute complications transitioned into the Markov model. Cycle time was six months. A healthcare payer perspective and lifetime horizon was used, adjusting for excess mortality due to history of thrombosis. Data for probabilities, transition probabilities, mortality, and utilities were obtained from the published literature. Cost data were obtained from UK NHS tariffs and published literature. Outcomes were mean lifetime cost, quality adjusted life years (QALYs), and cost effectiveness. Over a patient's lifetime, OAC was more costly (£37 206) than CDT (£32 043) and PMT (£36 288). Mean lifetime QALYs for OAC (12.9) were lower than CDT (13.5) and PMT (13.3). Therefore, in the incremental cost effectiveness analysis, both CDT and PMT were dominant: CDT was less costly (–£5 163) and more effective (+0.6 QALYs) than OAC, and PMT was also less costly (–£917) and more effective (+0.3 QALYs) than OAC. Results were robust to univariable sensitivity analyses, but probabilistic sensitivity analyses suggested considerable parameter uncertainty. Early interventional treatment of iliofemoral DVT is cost effective in the UK. Future clinical and epidemiological studies are needed to characterise parameter uncertainty. Further analysis of modern practice, alternative treatments, and optimised care models is warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Architecture & Civil Engineering is the property of Chang'an Daxue Zazhishe and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This study assessed the feasibility of using the Milano-Torino staging (MiToS) system for conducting economic evaluation to measure health outcomes in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). A Markov model was developed using the MiToS system and evaluated with a hypothetical treatment versus standard of care. Health utilities and transition probabilities were derived from the literature. Four-time horizons (1, 5, 10, and 20 years) were examined. Treatment effects of 20–35% relative risk reduction (RRR) of progressing to the next MiToS stage were assessed. Three patient distribution scenarios were tested: (1) all patients began in stage 0; (2) patient distribution based on real-world TONiC study; (3) distribution based on the PRO-ACT database. Health outcomes (quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs], life-years [LYs]) were reported with a 3% discount rate. A time horizon of 10 years fully captured treatment benefits: incremental QALYs were 0.28–0.60, 0.21–0.45, and 0.26–0.55 for scenarios 1–3, respectively; incremental LYs were 0.56–1.17, 0.46–0.97, and 0.53–1.11, respectively. MiToS-based staging can be used for conducting economic analyses in ALS. Estimated incremental QALY and LY gains were meaningful within the context of ALS, for hypothetical treatments with RRR of 20–35%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]